SwiftEdge Box Theory

4 giorni fa

SwiftEdge Box Theory is a mechanical daily forecast model that draws a single adaptive box centered on the previous trading day's close.
The box width is calculated using a volatility regime detection (short-term vs long-term EMA on True Range) with fixed minimum and maximum limits.
The model aims to visualize potential daily price containment and key levels for mean-reversion and gap-fade concepts.
Main Features

Current yellow forecast box with mid-line and range display
Horizontal lines inside the box marking zones relative to the mid-line
Horizontal lines outside the box at 50, 100, and 150 points from the upper and lower edges
Live dashboard (top-right) showing:
Open price position relative to the box
Bias based on open location
Suggested areas of focus

Risk manager box (bottom-right) comparing forecast range to current intraday range

How the components work together
The box serves as a daily reference frame.
Lines inside highlight distance from the mid-line (previous close).
Lines outside mark common gap sizes for visual reference.
The dashboard combines open price location with these levels to provide contextual information.
Intended use
This indicator is designed for educational and research purposes.
It can be used on any instrument but was developed with daily charts in mind (e.g., DAX/GER30).
All elements are fully customizable in the settings (colors, visibility).
Note

Past or historical behavior shown in charts is for illustration only.
Trading involves risk, and no strategy guarantees results.

SwiftEdge Box Theory – The Complete Manifest
Published January 2026 by SwiftEdge
──────────────────────────────
Introduction
SwiftEdge Box Theory is a mechanical, daily forecast model that draws one single yellow box per trading day, centered on the previous trading day's close price.
The box width is automatically adjusted based on the market's volatility regime (calm or wild).
The model is designed to provide a clear, visual daily framework – without repainting and without discretionary decisions.
The 5 Pillars of SwiftEdge Box Theory

Anchor = previous day's close
Price centers better around yesterday's close than open, high, or low – providing the most stable daily reference.
Adaptive range
Range is calculated from EMA(8) multiplied by a regime factor (1.35 in high volatility, 0.65 in low volatility).
Only 2 volatility regimes
Determined by EMA(5) vs EMA(21) on True Range – markets rarely switch rapidly between calm and wild.
Hard caps
Minimum 120 points, maximum 800 points – ensuring the box remains usable in both quiet and extreme periods.
One box per day
No multiple boxes, no adjustments – fully mechanical and transparent.

──────────────────────────────
The Mathematics – Step by Step
True Range (TR):
$ TR_t = \max(High_t - Low_t,\ |High_t - Close_{t-1}|,\ |Low_t - Close_{t-1}|) $
Regime detection:
$ vol_{short} = EMA(TR, 5) $
$ vol_{long} = EMA(TR, 21) $
$ regime\_factor = vol_{short} > vol_{long} ? 1.35 : 0.65 $
Forecast range:
$ adaptive\_TR = EMA(TR, 8) \times regime\_factor $
$ forecastRange = \max(120,\ \min(800,\ adaptive\_TR[1])) $
The yellow box:
$ FHigh = previous\ close + \frac{forecastRange}{2} $
$ FLow = previous\ close - \frac{forecastRange}{2} $
$ FMid = previous\ close $
──────────────────────────────
How to Use the Strategy – Step-by-Step Guide
Every morning at 08:55
Draw the yellow box (or let the indicator do it).
At 09:00 – observe where price opens
Open PositionFocus Area / BiasRecommended ActionInside the boxMean-reversion toward mid or edgeWait for edge touch or 51–80 pts from midNear F-Low (0–20 %)Strong LONG biasWait for touch or mean-reversion LONGNear F-High (80–100 %)Strong SHORT biasWait for touch or mean-reversion SHORT21–50 pts over F-HighGAP FADE SHORTFade the gap toward mid21–50 pts under F-LowGAP FADE LONGFade the gap toward mid51–100 pts outsideStronger gap fadeFade with reduced position size>150 pts outsideLarge gap – stand asideAvoid trading
Intraday setups inside the box

Touch F-High → focus on SHORT toward mid or F-Low
Touch F-Low → focus on LONG toward mid or F-High
51–80 pts from mid → mean-reversion toward opposite edge

Risk management (recommendation)

Risk 0.5–1 % per trade
Stop outside the wrong edge
Partial TP at mid, full TP at opposite edge

──────────────────────────────
Indicator Features

Yellow forecast box with mid-line and range text
Zones inside the box (strong long/short, long/short, wait)
Zones outside the box (gap-fade + stand aside)
Live bias dashboard (top-right) with open position and recommended focus
Risk manager (bottom-right) with forecast vs current range comparison

This strategy and indicator are for educational and research purposes only. Historical behavior is no guarantee of future results. Trading involves risk.
Welcome to SwiftEdge Box Theory.
One box. One framework. One clear day.
— SwiftEdge
January 2026

l’altro ieri

Note di rilascio

Updatet alarms