Scalping Strategy with SL and TP activation settingsThis strategy can be used on pretty much every timeframe that gives you a satisfying performance and will give you entries with a high probability of a winning trade.
Recommended are lower timeframes, because after all this is a scalping strategy and with that your chart wont be cluttered.
How to use this script?
Currently you can setup your positions SL and TP, because the markets vary in volatility it could improve the performance of the strategy.
You will simply get your signals and can decide to act upon them.
Stop loss: Simply your stop loss order which will trigger when price moves a given % away from your entry.
TP-Activation: When price reaches your % target it will trigger a stop limit order. So if price turns against your position after reaching your target it will close your position in profit and if it runs in your favoured direction it will trigger at a later stage.
Trailing-Offset-%: After reaching your % target it will trigger the TP order with an offset. So if you set your trailing offset to 0.1%, your TP order will be set behind 0.1 %. This can be used to test if the strategy would perform as well
if you leave more room for trades to play out.
Will this script make me profitable?
No strategy is a silver bullet and it depends mostly on you.
Trading is not easy and most people fail, because their risk management skills arent solid or they cant control their emotions.
This script will give you statistically often good entries, so even if you hit a losing streak your SL will protect you from losing more than necessary until you get a winning streak.
Patience and consistency is key to be profitable in the long run.
Does the script repaint?
Although you will get a notification when setting an alarm that the indicator may repaint, no security function is used and the signals will stay on the chart, because the signal is calculated based on the last candle close and will trigger with the next candle.
I am still looking into why that notification pops up.
You are free to try the indicator for a limited time to be sure.
My experience with the strategy
The overall statistical advantage is great. The strategy can be used simply as it is, but becomes better if you already have some experience with trading. Sometimes it will give you a good entry, reaches your target and the price still goes in your preferred direction. So your trading returns and experience could be improved with confluence, but it is totally fine as it is and if used right will help you get going.
Disclaimer: This is no financial advice. This is a tool and I am not responsible for your actions.
If you are interested in the indicator feel free to dm me on TradingView.
Bitcoin (Criptovaluta)
Quansium Series A BacktestThis comes with preconfigured setups or strategies. Simply choose one from our list based on the timeframe it was made for. Leverage can be changed; to keep trading safe, a maximum of 2 is allowed. In our findings, this was able to trade crypto (specifically BTC ), MES (Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures ), and stocks. It is important to know that setups A, B, C, and D use variable position sizing, and dynamic stop loss/trailing stop/take profit, these parameters are provided through the alerts. The rest of the strategies were created with a simpler approach in mind, just plainly entry/exits signals.
Quansium as a framework:
Price reformat: we take the price source (Open, Close, High, Low) and remove any noise that affects the accuracy of our signals.
Time awareness: we take several time periods of the data on the chart such as start, end, and whole. We use this to add more depth to our signals.
Position size: our backtest tries to recreate as much as the real world trades as possible so our position is determined by the current equity. We also use the volatility of the market to increase or decrease our exposure or risk.
Risk awareness: stop loss, take profit, trailing stop are the risk exits we use to provide our users some peace of mind. These parameters are totally dynamic and follow the same behavior of the market.
Signals filtering: to make almost non-existent any errors and increase the quality of our trades, our indicators go through multiple phases, this avoid double entries or early exits, and help maintain a record of what has transpired and what’s currently taking place.
Indicators: whenever we can we use custom code or our own functions instead of the defaults ones provided. This gives us total control of what we’re trying to achieve. In many cases we tend to combine several indicators’ logic into one creating a more personalized take on it.
Easiness: since we started our main goal has been to provide the easiest and fastest way to alerts’ creation. It has taken us years to reach this level where now we already provide a list of preset strategies so the user doesn’t have to spend much time tinkering with scripts and more on other matters, because we know life is more than just trading.
Raw signals: we provide the option to turn off as much of our advanced features such as stop loss, take profit, trailing stop, dynamic sizing, etc, etc for a simple approach. Trade signals still go through the signals filtering method mentioned above,
Timeframe pairing: we take trading very seriously, by no way we’ll want the user to lose money (although such thing is expected because past results aren’t an indicative of futures ones), through years of experience we have found what are usually common mistakes the user makes, this feature allows us to only activate the strategy if the right timeframe is chosen.
Trend filters: through the years we have improved the arts of the trend. We like to keep things simple but yet powerful. We observe the macro and micro trend of the security. This helps confirm we are entering at the desirable timing. We also incorporate volume and volatility into decision making, we simply programmed it to trade when these are increasing and higher than the average values observed in both the short and long term. Finally we take into account the strength of the pair to make our final choice of whether to enter or wait, and if anything flashes contrary movement then we cancel the upcoming signal and stop monitoring until the next one comes along.
Full automated risk: stop loss, take profit, and trailing stops usually are set in percentages, and optimized even more using the current market behavior to become more adaptive. But always remains some sort of fixation, so the user must choose a value somewhere. This is where our framework shines the most, as previously mentioned before when we take time into our calculations, we use several periods to observe performance and get values that keep our risk exits natural and closest to the flow of the market itself.
Setups:
A: Centered oscillator with the difference of several moving averages with more sensitive settings. Momentum focused.
B: Centered oscillator using simple moving averages. Trend-Following focused.
C: Centered oscillator using smoothed data with the help of faster moving averages. Trend-Following focused.
D: Centered oscillator with the difference of several moving averages with less sensitive settings. Trend-Following focused.
E: Centered oscillator with the difference of moving averages where the standard deviation is applied first. It uses less sensitive settings. Trend-Following focused.
F: Finds the relationship between multiple readings of the price’s relative strength to better pin-point downs and ups. Trend-Following focused.
G: Centered oscillator with the difference of moving averages where the standard deviation is applied first. It uses more sensitive settings. Momentum focused.
H: Multiple centered oscillators using various moving averages. Trend-Following focused.
I: Centered oscillator using simple moving averages. Momentum focused.
Note: The framework is composed of almost 1000 lines of code as compared to each indicator that makes up the setup which is around 10. The power from Quansium doesn't come from the strategies themselves but rather the overall system that turns simple signals into complex and advanced trades.
Strategy Tester:
Initial Capital: chosen value is $20,000, as an approximate to Bitcoin’s ATH (All-Time High). In previous iterations we noticed some trades won’t go through if the capital was less than the ATH.
Order Size: 100% of equity (although the script controls this, and this is of no regards to the results).
Pyramiding: 1, system doesn’t place multiple entries in a row, only one at a time.
Commission: This simulates order execution with custom trading fees. Commissions are turned off by default because this script works in various markets and each operates differently. In order to reach results that are close to real world conditions, it is imperative the user fills this based upon their broker or exchange data.
When we started, we were focused on finding the best indicator, or creating it ourselves. After years we came to realize that the secret is not in which indicator you use but the framework behind it. All strategies have bad, good, best, worst performance periods. The key of a good system is to help keep you safe when it’s down and maximize your potential when it’s up. We hope this material at the very minimum inspires you to keep going and not lose faith, because it is not the smartest who win but those who persevere.
DD_ScalpDD_Scalp is a buy/sell trading strategy based on momentum from breakout levels. It works well on 1D and 4H timeframes. It is a helpful indicator for scalping short range profits on a daily basis or for booking profits in a high time frame setups such as those given by my DD_Echo indicator. It works for all major cryptos such as BTC, ETH, LINK, and other alts. It also works for forex.
If you want to access this, please DM me.
Profits Unlimited Pro Strategy** This is the backtesting (strategy) version of ~ Profits Unlimited Pro ~ proprietary script in TradingView. **
~ Profits Unlimited Pro Strategy ~
֎ Trading system script on tradingview that brings an easy approach to trading with a high profitability rate
֎ Our proprietary formula was developed over the course of the past two years through a combination of trial and error and algorithmic backtesting.
-- HOW IT WORKS --
֎ The algorithm starts with a proprietary script combining custom inputs with a formula that works with custom bollinger bands settings and specific RSI levels to results in deadly accurate signals for long and short entry points.
but that's not all...
֎ When we first developed our formula, we noticed that it produced a lot of accurate signals but also didn't fully understand the dynamics of market momentum and trending directions...
...so there were a lot of needless calls being made that were reducing profitability.
You see, most markets spend roughly 80% of the time trading sideways with no significant trend either up or down...
...And trading these sideways markets commonly result in what's called a "whipsaw"...
A whipsaw is when price is moving in one direction but then quickly pivots to move in the opposite direction resulting in a loss. And nobody wants to be stuck trading in a sideways market getting killed by whipsaws all day...
So what did we do to fix this?...
-- THE WINNING FORMULA --
֎ We added the Average Directional Index into our custom formula with a goal of teaching the algorithm to only trade during periods of strong momentum and trends whether up or down.
֎ We also added trend exhaustion levels to give clear indication for exit signals and help determine best times of getting out of a trade.
֎ Trend Exhaustion Levels work in conjunction with trailing stop loss % and both are customizable for ideal exits and profitability.
֎ The results are mind blowing!
-- WHO IT'S FOR --
֎ Optimized for crypto markets, to catch trend movements as soon as possible and maximize profitability
֎ It's A Swing Traders Dream.
-- What You Get --
֎ Sell & Buy alerts, Stop Loss alerts and always adding new features!
֎ Customizable settings.
֎ Chrome Extension in development for fine-tuning settings automatically(COMING SOON)
-You will be able to select an asset. push a button. and the extension will find the best settings for you!
֎ Users Facebook community for learning, sharing and direct support
If you’d like to test the trading script in TradingView, I can give you access to a 10 days trial.
Please send me PM in tradingview and I’ll activate it right away.
Thank you!
Companion::DivergentCompanion::Divergent is a combined indicators strategy optimized for Bitcoin Markets and tested on Bitfinex.
Mainly, it is an Ichimoku based strategy.
Used indicators:
- Ichimoku (displayed on chart): trendline analysis;
- Double Hull MA (displayed on chart): trendline analysis;
- MACD (not displayed): confirmative/momentum detection;
- CCI (not displayed): confirmative/momentum detection;
- ATR: used toghether with Ichimoku to determine Stop Loss/Take Profit levels;
- VWMA: For implementing trailing stop orders based on volumes.
What the script does:
- determines trendlines combining mulitple indicators;
- automaticlally calculates Take profit and Stop Loss levels;
- permits automation generating Autoview signals;
- supports for margin trading. Spot trading will be added in the future.
It can be used on 1D or 1H timeframes but it can be adapted for other time frames tweaking the parameters. I used it a lot on Bitfinex on 1H timeframes. Please check parameters: if you will use the strategy on D or higher timeframes, the "Legacy Chikou analysis" option should be checked.
BACKTESTING
Backtest is not leveraged. Defaults are set as follow:
Capital: 10000
Percent of equity used for trades: 10%
Commission: 0.18% this is Bitfinex commission on orders
Change them accordingly on how you trade to get a more realistic backtest results.
The WaveRider - Help me to exit position!Hello,
I always like to refer to my previous articles to allow people to understand where am I in terms of knowledge at the time when I write this article.
BTC and ETH Long strategy version 1
BTC and ETH Long strategy version 2
Although some part of my crypto trading is automated via HaasOnline software, I like to take discretionary trades to feel the excitement of manual trading, especially during bull market :).
I write this new article and script because I did struggle to decide when to exit a recent LONG position on Ethereum.
Most of the novice traders struggles to know when to exit the position when gains are made.
The is exactly what happens to many people trading cryptos in the beginning of this bull market.
We always want more, we want to ride the wave as much as possible.
We see the gains growing every day and don't want to exist the position because tomorrow will bring more gains.
Yes, but sometimes there is a small retracement, the price is bleeding slowly but we want to hold because the price will move UP again in one of two days.
So the big question is went to exit (or not).
This subject is a difficult one because we are humans and highly influenced by our psychology.
Depending on the mood we are in, we can take different decisions.
If we are not feeling good and we are not in good mood, we will probably close a winning position as soon as a retracement comes in to keep our gains because we see this retracement as something bad.
On the other side, if we feel good and are in a good mood that day, we might take to opposition decision and keep the trade running as we believe that this retracement is something healthy for the price to allow it to continue to move up.
For novice traders, these emotions can impact the way how we trade and create frustrations if we exit a position too soon or too late.
So, why not to let a script giving us advices on this decision? If we are not sure if we should exit or not, this script might help us to take a better decision.
I have named this script the "WaveRider" because it is supposed to be used during bull market only when the asset is moving up.
Best time frame to use with crypto such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are 2H, 4H and 6H candles.
Even if it can also give you entry points to open a trade, the goal of this script is more to give you exit points.
So, if you have opened a trade manually and you are wondering if this is the right time to close it, this script is made for you.
Technically, entry points are based on 2 Moving averages (slow and fast). We can enter in position when crossing over.
The Position can be closed if the same Moving averages are crossing down. In addition, it will exit if the price suddenly drops below the Moving average.
I know it sounds simple and stupid, but sometimes we don't ask ourselves the right questions when taking the decision to exit a position. So, this script will remind you the basic stuff to consider before closing your position.
I hope that such idea will help you to take good exit decisions in the future.
Let me know if you need more details or want to access it.
BTC and ETH Long strategy - version 2I wrote my first article in May 2020. See below
BTC and ETH Long strategy - version1
After 6 months, it is now time to check the result of my script for the last 6 months.
XBTUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +78% in 4 trades
ETHXBT (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +21% in 9 trades
ETHUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +90% in 6 trades
Using the signals from this strategy to trade manually has shown that this was a bit frustrating because of the low rate of winning trades.
If you have to enter 100 trades and see 75% of them failing and 25% winning, this is frustrating. For sure the strategy makes good money but it is difficult to hold this mentality.
So, I have reviewed and modified it to get a higher winning rate.
After few days of work, tests and validation, I managed to get a wining rate close to 60%.
The key element was also to decrease the number of trades by using a higher time frame. (4H candles instead of 2H candles).
- Entry in position is based on
MACD, EMA (20), SMA (100), SMA (200) moving up
AND EMA (20) > SMA (100)
AND SMA (100) > SMA (200)
- Exit the position if: Stoploss is reached OR EMA (20) crossUnder SMA (100)
The goal of this new script is to be able to follow the signals manually and only make few trades per years.
I have also validated it against some other altcoins where some are giving very good results.
Here are some results for 2020 (from 01/01/2020 until now (22/11/2020). Those results are the one I get when using 4H candles.
ETH/USD: +144% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +120% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +33% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +123% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +155% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +388% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +180% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +97% in 10 trades.
The best is that above results are without considering compound effect. If you re-invest all gains done in each new trade, this will give you the below results :)
ETH/USD: +189% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +260% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +29% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +112% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +222% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +793% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +319% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +103% in 10 trades.
As you can see, the results are good and the number of trades for 11 months is not big, which allows the trader to place orders manually.
But still, I'm lazy :), so, I have also coded this strategy in HaasScript language which allows you to automate this strategy using the HaasOnline software specialized in automated crypto trading.
I hope that this strategy will give you ideas or will be the starting point for your own strategy.
Let me know if you need more details.
Phenom 5.3.1This has been a private script until now. I will be sharing it in order to get some feedback until it is ready to be made "invite only"
WHAT IT IS:
This is a scalping method (mostly) that works on nearly all markets and timeframes. THIS IS A BACKTEST SCRIPT! PLAN ACCORDINGLY!
HOW IT WORKS:
This script uses common indicators (5) in non-standard ways. When combined together, they can give fairly accurate results (40-65%) with acceptable Profit Factor ratings (1.7-3+).
This uses CCI, Moving Average, Stochastic, PSAR, and Bollinger Bands.
With these we have 4 base strategies usable.
Each indicator can be disabled (one at a time).
Each indicator has a SL method (stackable).
Each indicator has a TP method (stackable).
BEST RESULTS:
I have received best results as a scalper on 5min or 1HR timeframes. Mostly used on Index CFD's and CRYPTO markets.
NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUSE OR LOST FUNDS! D.Y.O.R
Bitcoin (BTC) Scalp / Short-term Short IndicatorThe purpose of this scalping Indicator is to help identifying Sell signals for short term trades on Bitcoin (Spot, Features, etc.) .
This script is working with more indicators and everything is balanced by hard work on (back)testing.
Result for users is a simple signal to SELL.
You can use it as easy indicator in your graph or create alerts.
I have the best results on 1min graph, with leverage and stop-loss feature.
This is my own version of scalping Sell Script / Indicator, which is a combination of few indicators, for example RSI , BB and price levels (actual and average) and works on standard candles.
SELL signal paints above the candle and you can set your target / trailing / stop-loss in the settings and check how it works in Strategy Tester.
Settings of this Indicator:
Take Profit
Stop Loss
Trailing Stop Loss
Trailing Stop Loss Offset
Initial Capital
Base Currency
Order size
Pyramiding
Commissions
Slippage
Average price lines (colors and visibility)
Plot background
These signals can be often observed at the beginning of a strong move, but there is a significant probability that these price levels will be revisited at a later point in time again.
Therefore these are interesting levels to place limit orders.
A Sell signal is defined as the last up candle before a sequence of down candles.
In my trading settings I have more but small positions, one safety limit order (for price averaging = better entry - easier close in profit) and stop-loss.
Sometimes trailing-profit feature have very nice profits.
Settings depends on your own money-management and free capital.
Don't ignore UP / DOWN trend. For UP trend I have an Indicator too (check my profile).
In addition to the upper/lower limits of each line, also average value is marked as this is an interesting area for price interaction and better view.
PM me to obtain access, more informations or support.
NOTICE: By requesting access to this script you acknowledge that you have read and understood that this is for research purposes only and I am not responsible for any financial losses you may incur by using this script.
Multi Time Frame Buy&Sell V4.0 [BACKTEST]Hi guys,this indicator Developed for Intraday and multi Time Frame Trading. Note: Invite only Script.Request to me Access permission to test this.
*** THIS IS STUDY VERSION ***
Time Frame : can use for 15 min / 30 min / 1h / 4h time
15 min configuration is best result for bitcoin and ethereum .
This can be used : Crypto Currency/ Bitcoins / ethereum ,Forex,currencies ,Index ,Commodity Gold / silver , Oil Market and in Equity / Futures
ETHUSDT Futures 15min
BTCUSDT Futures 15min:
GOLD /USD FOREX 15min:
HOW IT WORKS:
this indicator analyze EMA&SMA support and resistance then combine with pivot point and fibo levels is used to calculate the signals.and finally show entry label on
chart with target point and stop loss
HOW TO USE:
Creating a signal is as simple as adding the indicator called to your chart(buy or sell)label and background color change ( green=buy / red = sell)
green line is target and black line is stop loss.
in top of setting page you can see noise filter option . that can change it to get better result and reduce noise. in setting can set 3 target level and stoploss
NOT:all information show to info panel in chart.
strategy tester : enabled .All you can test this in live market in any segment.
NOT: can to change noise filter in setting setup until to get best result.
Choose any Date Month Year to Current Date and check the results below in the Strategy Tester.
REPAINT/NO REPAINT : No Repaint ,entery labal(buy or sell) and Background Color wont change. In the current candle position wait for the candle to close to see the
stability.
"Set alert": Select "Once per bar close" for your alert options.
There are 5 alerts:
- BUY
- SELL
- BUY OR SELL (for free TV users)
- take profit
- stop loss
Review and Feedback.Thank you!
Any issues report to me to Fix.Thank you!
how To Get access : Use the link below to obtain access to this indicator or PM us to obtain access.
Bitcoin (BTC) Scalp / Short-term Long IndicatorThe purpose of this scalping Indicator is to help identifying Buy signals for short term trades on Bitcoin (Spot, Features, etc.) .
This script is working with more indicators and everything is balanced by hard work on (back)testing.
Result for users is a simple signal to BUY .
You can use it as easy indicator in your graph or create alerts.
I have the best results on 1min graph, with leverage and stop-loss feature.
This is my own version of scalping Buy Script / Indicator, which is a combination of few indicators, for example RSI, BB and price levels (actual and average) and works on standard candles .
LONG signal paints below the candle and you can set your target / trailing / stop-loss in the settings and check how it works in Strategy Tester .
Settings of this Indicator:
Take Profit
Stop Loss
Trailing Stop Loss
Trailing Stop Loss Offset
Initial Capital
Base Currency
Order size
Pyramiding
Commissions
Slippage
Average price lines (colors and visibility)
Plot background
These signals can be often observed at the beginning of a strong move, but there is a significant probability that these price levels will be revisited at a later point in time again.
Therefore these are interesting levels to place limit orders.
A Buy signal is defined as the last down candle before a sequence of up candles.
In my trading settings I have more but small positions, one safety limit order (for price averaging = better entry - easier close in profit) and stop-loss.
Sometimes trailing-profit feature have very nice profits.
Settings depends on your own money-management and free capital.
In addition to the upper/lower limits of each line, also average value is marked as this is an interesting area for price interaction and better view.
PM me to obtain access, more informations or support.
NOTICE: By requesting access to this script you acknowledge that you have read and understood that this is for research purposes only and I am not responsible for any financial losses you may incur by using this script.
IBVOL SignalsThis indicator can be used for swing algorithmic trading. It will give Buy and Sell signals on the chart based on concepts of volatility and momentum.
This works for the IBVOL-USD token on FTX exchange.
Value for the traders: During periods of sideways price action by BTCUSD, the value of IBVOL will go up and the indicator will give a buy signal and traders will profit if they buy the token. Just before an impending volatility, such as spike of BTC price, it will signal a sell, so traders can sell this token and reinvest their profits in BTC trade.
The strategy has so far had 100% hit rate, with very low drawdown (0.01%), and high profit factor of 2176.
For access please contact me via DM on TradingView.
Swing Algo V1.3An upgrade of Swing Algo V1.2 to reduce chop heavily, used for trading ETH. For differences to other versions, see below.
This indicator can be used for e.g. swing algorithmic trading. It will give Buy/Long and Sell/Short signals on the chart. This algorithm uses a combination of several (custom) functions and rules to find good entry points for trend trading. After many iterations and tests I came up with this particular setup, which is highly optimized for the ETH/USD trading pair on the daily (D) timeframe. Attention was also paid to stability, as all parameters are set onto plateaus, so that smaller changes in the characteristic price action should not affect the efficiancy too much. For other assets and/or timeframes it is however possible to change algorithmic parameters within the indicator settings to tune this swing algorithm. You don't need any programming skills or similar abilities to navigate this indicator.
For the here presented backtest data, we omitted the biggest portion of the cryptocurrency bullrun in 2017 (starting only at 1st July 2017) so that the results become more realistic for long-term swing traders (investing at least 2-3 years into trading) if such large runs do not happen again. As cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are still to this date capable of doing comparatively smaller runs of about 2-3x in a few weeks/months (as witnessed in 2020), the order of magnitude of the shown results is still realistic for long-term trend trading efforts. Do not expect these results in a matter of days or weeks, and of course as with any trading strategy past performances are not indicative of future results.
Within this indicator you can choose the backtest time interval to test the perfomance of this algorithm for different time windows and different trading pairs. Here various backtesting parameters (e.g. trading fees) can be customized. Default settings for the shown backtest are a starting balance of $1000, a slippage of 2 ticks (= $0.02) and a trading fee of 0.26 % (which is the worst taker fee on the Kraken exchange) to have realistic settings. However as we do not conduct many trades with this strategy, fees should not impact our performance too much. As long-term swing traders, we devote one initial portion of our portfolio to swing trading and from then on always use 100% of this portion for the next trade to get the compounding starting. This is in difference to other trading styles which use various, often very small, percentage values for their short- or mid-term trades. Keep this in mind when evaluating the backtest data. Also note that due to the small number of trades the statistical significance is low. It is not possible to gather an abundance of long-term trend signals in the order of hundreds or thousands trades, as much more time would have to pass for this in the case of rather new assets like Ethereum.
Additionally to the TradingView Strategy Tester you can also plot your equity directly on the chart to get a sense for the performance. For this you can also scale the equity graph to e.g. match the starting point of your equity with some price point on the chart to get a direct comparison to 'Buy & Hold' strategies over time.
This indicator (and all other content I provide) is no financial advice. If you use this indicator you agree to my Terms and Conditions which can be found on my Twitter profile linked on my TradingView profile or in my signature.
Differences to other versions:
- Changed from a dual (V1, V1.1) to a single smoothing function system (V1.2, V1.3), which can react better to more sudden price movements that got prevalent during the current end-phase of the stock bullmarket due to correlations, while still handling 'normal' price action well
- Changed the oscillator part of the algorithm again with one that handles chop for the ETH/USD trading pair extremely well.
- Improved net profits by potentially +100% in comparison to V1 for ETH/USD on daily timeframe
- However for other assets (e.g. BTC and smaller coins like XTZ and ALGO) and timeframes V1 might perform better than V1.3 due to somewhat different characteristic price action. I leave you with all options to play so that you can find the best solution for a given trading pair.
- There's also a previous version called Swing Algo V1.2 considered the go-to algo at the moment, which works similar to V1.3, but operates a bit less tight, leading to more flexibility while suppressing chop not as much as V1.3.
For access please contact me via DM on TradingView or on Twitter (linked on my TradingView profile and my signature). People who purchased access to any 'Swing Algo 1.x' get access to all other 'Swing Algo V1.x' indicators automatically ('Swing Algo V1' counts as 'Swing Algo V1.0').
Swing Algo V1.2The next upgrade in the 'Swing Algo V1.x' series, and the go-to algorithm for trading ETH (until further notice). For differences to other versions, see below.
This indicator can be used for e.g. swing algorithmic trading. It will give Buy/Long and Sell/Short signals on the chart. This algorithm uses a combination of several (custom) functions and rules to find good entry points for trend trading. After many iterations and tests I came up with this particular setup, which is highly optimized for the ETH/USD trading pair on the daily (D) timeframe. Attention was also paid to stability, as all parameters are set onto plateaus, so that smaller changes in the characteristic price action should not affect the efficiancy too much. For other assets and/or timeframes it is however possible to change algorithmic parameters within the indicator settings to tune this swing algorithm. You don't need any programming skills or similar abilities to navigate this indicator.
For the here presented backtest data, we omitted the biggest portion of the cryptocurrency bullrun in 2017 (starting only at 1st July 2017) so that the results become more realistic for long-term swing traders (investing at least 2-3 years into trading) if such large runs do not happen again. As cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are still to this date capable of doing comparatively smaller runs of about 2-3x in a few weeks/months (as witnessed in 2020), the order of magnitude of the shown results is still realistic for long-term trend trading efforts. Do not expect these results in a matter of days or weeks, and of course as with any trading strategy past performances are not indicative of future results.
Within this indicator you can choose the backtest time interval to test the perfomance of this algorithm for different time windows and different trading pairs. Here various backtesting parameters (e.g. trading fees) can be customized. Default settings for the shown backtest are a starting balance of $1000, a slippage of 2 ticks (= $0.02) and a trading fee of 0.26 % (which is the worst taker fee on the Kraken exchange) to have realistic settings. However as we do not conduct many trades with this strategy, fees should not impact our performance too much. As long-term swing traders, we devote one initial portion of our portfolio to swing trading and from then on always use 100% of this portion for the next trade to get the compounding starting. This is in difference to other trading styles which use various, often very small, percentage values for their short- or mid-term trades. Keep this in mind when evaluating the backtest data. Also note that due to the small number of trades the statistical significance is low. It is not possible to gather an abundance of long-term trend signals in the order of hundreds or thousands trades, as much more time would have to pass for this in the case of rather new assets like Ethereum.
Additionally to the TradingView Strategy Tester you can also plot your equity directly on the chart to get a sense for the performance. For this you can also scale the equity graph to e.g. match the starting point of your equity with some price point on the chart to get a direct comparison to 'Buy & Hold' strategies over time.
This indicator (and all other content I provide) is no financial advice. If you use this indicator you agree to my Terms and Conditions which can be found on my Twitter profile linked on my TradingView profile or in my signature.
Differences to other versions:
- Changed from a dual (V1, V1.1) to a single smoothing function system (V1.2, V1.3), which can react better to more sudden price movements that got prevalent during the current end-phase of the stock bullmarket due to correlations, while still handling 'normal' price action well
- Changed the oscillator part of the algorithm with a better suited one (at least) for the ETH/USD trading pair, handling chop better.
- Improved net profits by potentially +100% in comparison to V1 for ETH/USD on daily timeframe
- However for other assets (e.g. BTC and smaller coins like XTZ and ALGO) and timeframes V1 might perform better than V1.2 due to somewhat different characteristic price action. I leave you with all options to play so that you can find the best solution for a given trading pair.
- There's also an upgrade called Swing Algo V1.3, which works similar to V1.2, but reduces losses due to chop even further. Because V1.2 is a bit more flexible, it is, however, considered the go-to algo for the time being.
For access please contact me via DM on TradingView or on Twitter (linked on my TradingView profile and my signature). People who purchased access to any 'Swing Algo 1.x' get access to all other 'Swing Algo V1.x' indicators automatically ('Swing Algo V1' counts as 'Swing Algo V1.0').
Hammer Long strategy with filtered and enforced alertsA Hammer Long strategy is a price pattern in candlestick charting that occurs when a security trades significantly lower than its opening, but rallies within the period to close near opening price. This pattern forms a hammer-shaped candlestick , in which the lower shadow is at least twice the size of the real body. The body of the candlestick represents the difference between the open and closing prices, while the shadow shows the high and low prices for the period.
Key takeaways:
Hammers have a small real body and a long lower shadow.
Hammers occur after a price decline.
The hammer candlestick shows sellers came into the market during the period but by the close the selling had been absorbed and buyers had pushed the price back to near the open.
The close can be above or below the open, although the close should be near the open in order for the real body to remain small.
The lower shadow should be at least two times the height of the real body.
Hammer candlesticks indicate a potential price reversal to the upside.
The strategy enhances standard Hammer pattern accuracy by clearing out market noises and manipulations from the indicator's triggers. Combination of Volume oscillator filter and Directional Movement Index (DMI) components values adjustments allows to detect only strong signals. The strategy is developed to forecast Long positions entries and exits. The strategy supports spot, futures, options and marginal trading exchanges. It works accurately with BTC, USD, USDT, ETH and BNB quote currencies. Best to use with 30 and 60 minutes timeframe charts. The strategy can be and should be configured for each particular asset. You can change filters and risk management settings to receive the most advanced accurate alerts
Advantages of this script:
1. Weak signals and market noises are filtered. This allows to receive only strong and confirmed alerts
2. Strategy can be easily configured in user interface for each particular asset
3. High performance. At the chart you can see examples of strategy entries and exits, you also can check strategy backtest for RENUSDT position:
Net profit: 26.95%
Percent profitable: 90%
Profit factor: 7.418
Duration of trade: 16 hours
How to use?
1. Apply indicator to the trading pair your are interested in at 30m or 60m timeframe chart
2. Configure the strategy: change filters values and risk management settings until Strategy tester shows good results according to mathematical expectation
3. Set up a TradingView alert to trigger when Hammer strategy conditions are met
4. Strategy will send alerts when to enter and when to exit positions
If you want to obtain access to the indicator please send us a personal message
ELLIPSE: Bidirectional Swing Trading Strategy (Strategy Version)The eternal question that has occupied humanity since its early existence is what is the meaning of life and why am I here? On a daily basis this quest for meaning is distilled into a somewhat simpler question: What is the reason for getting up every morning?
For many of us, these thoughts arise even more as autumn arrives and it gets dark, bleak and cold outside. I guess it is easier to forget about the meaning of your life, while swimming on a sandy beach, enjoying a cocktail. Than you are living you life and you don’t need to rationalize it. Everything makes perfect sense!
In winter however, you need to get more “creative”. I, for example, would always try to change my perspective of things by doing something that makes my heart beat faster, like drinking a bottle of Heineken on a Friday evening or having endless conversations with my mates about stupid things, or kicking a ball against BALLONTHEROOF 7 on a Saturday morning. During the week, I would take out my frustrations on the fitness equipment at the local gym.
But what if all of this is canceled by CORONA? All that’s left is to work for the boss and run your 10km lap twice a week. The question is, what do you do now, with this huge amount of ”free” time than any old person would give anything for. When you are young time is never ending, when you are older it is never enough. Time has reached a different dimension in these days.
However, you can still do 2 things. You can slowly let the walls come to you and give up or you can actually do something useful with your time and find something that you are good at.
For us this choice was easy. After the success of our positioning trading strategy the MATRIX, at the time of the corona lockdown, we started making a swing trading strategy for the 4H timeframe, called ELLIPSE. We have included all feedback and any improvements we received about the positioning strategy and integrated it into the 4H script.
The main requirements of the script that we had set ourselves were:
Bidirectional
Low max drawdown
High profit factor
Works on all main crypto coins
By fully focusing ourselves on the script over the past few months, I can’t help but (unhumbly) say that we have not only succeeded in our mission, but that we have absolutely surpassed ourselves!
The only bright spot in this heavy corona time is, if a drug becomes available, there is extra money in the bank!
***The script is invite-only, message us to get script access***
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User Guidelines:
The trading strategy was designed and optimized for trading cryptocurrencies only; furthermore it works best on established cryptocurrencies that have a clear historical trend such as:
BTCUSD
ETHUSD
LTCUSD
XRPUSD
ADAUSD
The trading strategy is based on swing trading methodology. The script must therefore be used on 4h candles only .
Use USD trading pairs only (e.g. use ETHUSD instead of the ETHBTC) since the individual trend is captured more effectively and therefore gives better results.
The trading strategy is bidirectional , both long and short entries are generated.
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Indicators used in this strategy:
Ichimoku Cloud ; acts as the leading indicator.
Volume ; without strong volume , a market move is not valid.
MACD and Vortex ; both being used as confirmation indicators.
Choppiness index ; avoids trading in choppy markets.
Simple and Exponential Moving Averages ; prevents trading against the trend.
The trading strategy is easy to use, bidirectional, trend based and without repainting, meaning once a signal has been made it is permanent and that no future data is used in the decision making. It detects the trend and filters out market noise based on more than 10 technical indicators. ONLY when all indicators align with each other the algorithm prints a LONG or SHORT signal. The trading strategy provides high probability trading signals and minimizes risk! This script aims to capture the profit from short to medium trending moves and by doing so filters out non-substantial trends and avoids the associated risks with these trades.
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Features:
NO Repaint once candle is closed.
Stop loss feature ; set your own stop loss to manage your risks.
Customizable Display for the Ichimoku cloud indicator display.
Bidirectional ; both long and short trading positions can be enabled.
Full backtest feature ; Easily generate your own backtest results for each asset (Strategy Version Script).
Alerts ; Get notified via email / pop-up / sms / app once a signal is given! (Alert Version Script).
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Backtest results
Below are the back test results. Only well established cryptocurrencies are displayed with a clear historical trend:
Long and short trading positions,
Signal to signal trading (no multiple orders),
Initial Capital: 10 000 USD,
Order size: 10% of equity per trade,
commission fee 0.1%, period: start of chart,
Exchange-----Asset------Timeframe---Percent Profitable----Profit Factor---Total Trades----Max Drawdown----------Net Profit------
Bínance------BTCUSDT------4H-----------------54.4---------------5.32-----------------57----------------1.58%------------40.34%-(4034 USD)
Bínance------ETHUSD-------4H-----------------50.9---------------5.01---------------- 57----------------2.96%------------54.93%-(5493 USD)
Bínance------LTCUSD--------4H-----------------61.0---------------5.08-----------------59----------------2.09%------------57.06%-(5706 USD)
Bínance------XRPUSD-------4H-----------------43.13--------------3.52-----------------51----------------2.42%------------43.13%-(4313 USD)
Bínance------ADAUSD-------4H-----------------57.5---------------3.36-----------------47----------------3.46%------------40.82%-(4082 USD)
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Reminder: Use this trading strategy at your own risk and trade responsibly. We are not responsible for any financial loss using this strategy.
***The script is invite-only, message us to get script access***
Engulfing strategy with DMI confirmationThe strategy contains Bearish and Bullish Engulfing trend reverse alerts with entry and closure notifications. Entries are enforced by Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicator levels combination. The strategy can be applied to spot, futures and marginal trading exchanges. It is suitable for both long and short positions and works accurately with BTC, USDT, ETH and BNB quote currencies. Best to use with 1H timeframe charts
Strategy elements can be configured at your own desire with user interface settings, no programming skills required:
1. Choose signals type: Long, Short or Both
2. Choose trend detection pattern rule:
SMA50 - provides a higher number of positions
SMA50 + SMA200 provides a higher accuracy
3. Change risk management settings to make the most accurate and efficient configuration. You can set up unique stop loss, take profit and trailing offset for different assets
4. Configure strategy periods
DMI and ADX lengths
ADX Smoothing
Key level
EMA and SMA lengths
5. Configure backtest dates
6. Show or hide RSI support and resistance bands
Engulfing strategy provides information for traders to enter the market in anticipation of a possible reversal in trend. Engulfing candles tend to signal a reversal of the current trend in the market. This specific pattern involves two candles with the latter candle "engulfing" the entire body of the candle before it. The engulfing candle can be bullish or bearish depending on where it forms in relation to the existing trend. The script calculates and compares values of the price action candles to define is there an engulfing and what type it is: bullish or bearish
If there is a bullish engulfing the indicator fills price action candle with yellow color
If there is a bearish engulfing the indicator fills price action candle with purple color
Advantages of the script:
1. The script detects presence of both types of engulfing: Bullish and Bearish
2. Weak engulfment signals and market noises are filtered by RSI bands and DMI confirmations. This allows to receive only strong and confirmed engulfment signals
3. This script has configurable risk management settings (order size, commission, take profit, stop loss and trailing). This provides you opportunity of direct broker connection and allows to conduct backtests before applying the strategy to real account. You also can set up strategy actions alerts
At the chart you can see the historical price action of ADAUSDT at Binance exchange from the January 1st 2019 till current date. The strategy is set up to receive only long signals because it is a spot market. Moments when the strategy triggered to enter a position are shown as L label while position entries are shown as "Long" messages. Moments when a certain position should be closed are shown as "Exitlong" messages
The strategy demonstrate high backtest results:
Mathematical expectation of risk management settings is positive = 1.34%
Percent profitable = 93.33%
Profit factor = 3.253
Quantity of entries = 75
Net profit = 15.22%
How to use?
Long signals:
1. Apply indicator to a trading pair your are interested in.
2. Click Settings button and select Alert Positions Type Long
3. Once bullish engulfing and confirmation conditions are met price action candle will be colored yellow and script strategy will enter a position.
4. Check Strategy Tester to set up optimal Risk management settings: stop loss, trailing profit activation point, trailing offset
5. Set up the strategy alert to be notified when a position should be opened or closed
Short signals:
1. Apply indicator to a trading pair your are interested in.
2. Click Settings button and select Alert Positions Type Short
3. Once bearish engulfing and confirmation conditions are met price action candle will be colored purple and script strategy will enter a position.
4. Check Strategy Tester to set up optimal Risk management settings: stop loss, trailing profit activation point, trailing offset
5. Set up the strategy alert to be notified when a position should be opened or closed
Best regards,
SkyRock Signals team
If you want to receive access to the strategy please contact us in personal message!
Strategy Super Trend v0.4This strategy is written for trading cryptocurrencies using the super trend indicator. The main parameters of the strategies include the super trend indicator settings, as well as the testing period. An important advantage of strategies is the use of a martingale to close positions, which increases profitability!
VGrego - Triple Regression StrategyI developed this strategy with perpetual contracts like the ones offered by Bitmex and FTX for Bitcoin.
This script uses complex regressions to analyze past, present and future to place long calls.
The script performs well on 1H charts on most perpetual contracts scenario.
New Secret Strat V56156After years of resserch and development, I finally finished created the best strategy ever made.
It works on every security you can think of: futures, forex, bitcoin, and so on.
It will adapt the pattern of every chart to make the most money possible.
This is the masterpieace I was hopping to produce one day, and now it is.
Right before you.
Enjoy the best strategy that has ever been created.
Good luck !
Primus V1 - BybitHey everyone,
The current version its a scalping strategy for Bybit but for those that prefers swing trading algo I can do a different version as well for different exchanges.
This is the first version on my algo Primus, expect updates on the months to come.
A Physicist's Bitcoin Trading Strategy
1. Summary
This strategy and indicator were designed for, and intended to be used to guide trading activity in, crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin. This strategy uses a custom indicator to determine the state of the market (bullish vs bearish) and allocates funds accordingly. This particular variation also uses the custom indicator to determine when the market is significantly oversold and takes advantage of the opportunity (it buys the dip). The specific mathematical formula that is used to calculate the underlying custom indicator allows the trader to get in before, or near the start of, the bull trends, and get out before the bear trends. The strategy's properties dialogue box includes many display settings and parameters for optimization and customization to meet the user's needs and risk tolerance; this is both a tool to gauge the market, as well as a trading strategy to beat the market. Guidelines for parameter settings are provided. A sample dataset of backtest results using randomized parameters, both within the guidelines and outside the guidelines, is available upon request; notably, all trials outperformed the intended market (Bitcoin) during the 9-year backtest period.
2. The Indicator and Strategy
2.1. The Indicator
A mathematical formula is used to determine the state of the market according to three different "frequencies", which, for lack of better terminology, are called fast, moderate, and slow indicators. There are two parameters for each of the three indicators, one called response time and the other is a simple look-back period. Finally, four exponential moving averages are used to smooth each indicator. In total, there are 18 different levels of bullishness/bearishness. The purpose of using three indicators, rather than one, is to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. I.e. the full indicator looks at the forest, the trees, and the branches, simultaneously.
2.2. The Strategy
The trend-trading strategy is very simple; there are only four types of orders: 1) The entire position (e.g. all bitcoins held) is sold (if it hasn't already been totally sold) when the indicator becomes maximally bearish, 2) When the movement of the indicator is in the bullish direction, the strategy dollar-cost-average (DCA) buys at an exponentially decreasing rate, i.e. it buys more in the early stages of the transition from bear->bull. 3) When the indicator is maximally bullish, it goes "all-in" † (if it hasn't already gone all-in), i.e. it converts all available cash into the underlying security/token. And, 4) when the movement of the indicator is in the bearish direction, the strategy DCA sells (again, exponentially decreasing) to get out quickly. No leverage is used in this strategy. The strategy never takes a short position.
A second "buy-the-dip" strategy is also used, and it is the synergy of these two strategies, together, that is responsible for most of the outperformance in the backtests (this strategy handily beats the non-dip-buying variation in backtests). To do this, the custom indicator is used to determine when the market is significantly oversold on a short-term basis, and the strategy responds by DCA buying. However, unlike the DCA buying during bull/bear transitions, the buy-the-dip DCA buying increases with time. Specifically, within each candle that is short-term oversold, the strategy converts 10% x # of candles since becoming oversold (up to a max of 6 candles) of available cash into the underlying security/token. I.e. the first buy is 10% of available cash and occurs in the first oversold candle, the second buy is 20% of available cash and occurs in the second oversold candle, etc. up to six consecutive oversold candles. Lastly, to ensure no conflicting orders and no leverage (buying more than what is affordable with the available cash in the fund), buy-the-dip orders take precedence over the trend-trading orders enumerated in the previous paragraph.
† Technically the strategy goes 99.5% in when it goes "all-in". This is to ensure no leverage is used given that there may be a commission of 0.5%.
3. Backtest Results
Backtest results demonstrate significant outperformance over buy-and-hold. The default parameters of the strategy/indicator have been set by the author to achieve maximum (or, close to maximum) outperformance on backtests executed on the BTCUSD (Bitcoin) chart. However, significant outperformance over buy-and-hold is still easily achievable using non-default parameters. Basically, as long as the parameters are set to adequately capture the full character of the market, significant outperformance on backtests is achievable and is quite easy. In fact, after some experimentation, it seems as if underperformance hardly achievable and requires deliberately setting the parameters illogically (e.g. setting one parameter of the slow indicator faster than the fast indicator). In the interest of providing a quality product to the user, suggestions and guidelines for parameter settings are provided in section (6). Finally, some metrics of the strategy's outperformance on the BTCUSD chart are listed below, both for the default (optimal) parameters as well as for a random sample of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines set forth in section (6).
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Total cumulative outperformance (total return of strategy minus total return of buy-n-hold): 13,000,000%.
Rolling 1-year outperformance: mean 318%, median 84%, 1st quartile 55%, 3rd quartile, 430%.
Rolling 1-month outperformance: mean 2.8% (annualized, 39%), median -2.1%, 1st quartile -7.7%, 3rd quartile 13.2%, 10th percentile -13.9%, 90th percentile 24.5%.
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, during specific periods,
Cumulative outperformance during the past year (August 2019-August 2020): 37%.
12/17/2016 - 12/17/2017 (2017 bull market) absolute performance of 2563% vs buy-n-hold absolute performance of 2385%
11/29/2012 - 11/29/2013 (2013 bull market) absolute performance of 14033% vs buy-n-hold absolute performance of 9247%
Using a random sample (n=20) of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines outlined in section (6), relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Average total cumulative outperformance, from August 2011 to August 2020: 2,000,000%.
Median total cumulative outperformance, from August 2011 to August 2020: 1,000,000%.
4. Limitations
This strategy is basically a DCA-swing trading strategy, and as such it is intended to be used on the 6-hr chart. Similar performance is expected on daily chart, 12-hr chart, and 4-hr chart, but performance is likely to be limited when used on charts of shorter time-frames. However, due to the flexibility afforded by the large quantity of parameters, as well as the tools included, it may be possible to tweak the indicator settings to get some outperformance on smaller time-frames. Admittedly, the author did not spend much time investigating this.
As is apparent in the backtests, this strategy has very limited absolute performance during large bear markets, such as Bitcoin's 2018 bear market. As described, it does outperform the underlying security by a large amount in backtests, but a large absolute return is unlikely during large and prolonged declines (unless, of course, your unit of account is the underlying token, in which case an outperformance of the underlying is, by definition, an absolute positive return).
This strategy is likely to underperform if used to trade ETFs of broad equity markets. This strategy may produce a small amount of outperformance when used to trade precious metals ETFs, given that the parameters are set optimally by the user.
5. Use
The default parameters have already been set for highly optimal backtest results on the chart of BTCUSD (Bitcoin / US Dollar BITSTAMP), (although, a different combination of parameter settings may yet produce better results). Still, there is a great number of combinations that can be explored, so the user is free to tweak the settings to meet his/her/their needs. Some display options are provided to give the user a visual aid while tweaking the parameters. These include a blue/red background display of the custom indicator, a calibration system, and options to display information about the backtest results. The background pattern represents the various levels of bullishness/bearishness as semi-transparent layers of blue and red, with blue corresponding with bullish and red corresponding with bearish.
The parameters that affect the indicator are the response times, the periods, and some EMA lengths. The parameters that affect the quantity of contracts (tokens/shares/bitcoins/etc) to be bought/sold are the transitionary buy/sell rates. There are also two sets of date parameters.
The response time and period parameters are direct inputs into the underlying math formula and are used to create the base-level indicators (fast, moderate, and slow). The response times control the speed of each of the three indicators (shorter is fast, longer is slower) and the period controls how much historical data is used in computation. Information about how these should be set are included in section (6). Another set of parameters control EMA look-back periods that serve to smooth the base-level indicators. Increasing these EMA lengths makes the overall indicator less sensitive to short-term price action, while reducing them does the opposite. The effect of these parameters are obvious when the background blue/red visualization is displayed. Another EMA length is an EMA for the entire indicator. Increasing this parameter reduces the responsiveness of the trading strategy (buy/sell orders) to quick/small changes of the overall level of the indicator, so as to avoid unnecessary buying and selling in times of relatively small and balanced price perturbations. Note, changing this parameter does not have an effect on the overall indicator itself, and thus will not affect the blue/red background representation.
The transitionary buy/sell rates control the portion of the available asset to be converted to the other. E.g. if the buy rate is set to 90%, then 90% of the available cash will be used to buy contracts/tokens/shares/bitcoins during transitions bullish transitions, e.g. if the available cash at the start of the bullish transition is $10,000 and the parameter is set to 90%, then $9,000 will be used to buy in the first candle during which the transition is bullish, then $900 will be used to buy in the second candle, then $90 in the third candle, etc.
There are two dates that can be set. The first is the date at which the strategy goes all in. This is included because the buy-and-hold strategy is the benchmark against which this strategy is compared, so setting this date to some time before the strategy starts to make trades will show, very clearly, the outperformance of the strategy, especially when the initial capital parameter in the Properties tab is equal to the price of one unit of the underlying security on the date that is set, e.g. all-in on Bitcoin on 8/20/2011 and set initial capital to the BTCUSD price on that date, which was $11.70. The second date is a date to control when the strategy can begin to place trades.
Finally (actually, firstly in the Inputs dialogue box), a set of checkbox inputs controls whether or not the backtest is on or off, and what is displayed. The display options are the blue/red (bull/bear) background layers †, a set of calibrators, a plot of the total strategy equity, a plot of the cash position of the strategy, a plot of the size of the position of the strategy in contracts/shares/units (labeled as BTC position), and a plot of the rolling 1-year performances of buy-and-hold and the strategy.
About the calibrators: The calibration system allows the user to quickly assess and calibrate how well the indicator... indicates. Quite simply, the system has two parts: one plot that is the cumulative sum of the product of the indicator level and the change in the underlying price, i.e. sum of ‡, over all candles. The second part is a similar plot that is reduced according to the quickness with which the indicator changes, i.e. sum of . Maximizing the first plot at the expense of the second will cause the indicator to match the price action very well but therefore it will change very rapidly, from bullish to bearish, which is visualized by a background pattern that changes frequently from blue to red to blue. Ignoring the first plot and maximizing the second will also cause the indicator to more closely match the price action, but the transitions will be slower and less frequent, and will therefore focus on identifying the major trends of the market.
† The blue/red background has many layers and will make the chart lag as the user interacts with it.
‡ Bearish states are coded as negative quantities, so a bearish state x negative price action = positive number, and bullish state x positive price action = positive number.
6. Suggestions and Guidelines
As described in section (2.1), the indicator used in this strategy was designed to determine the state of the market--whether it is bullish or bearish--as well as the change in the state of the market--whether it is increasingly bullish or increasingly bearish. As such, the following suggestions are provided based on the principles of the indicator's design,
1. Response Time 1 should be less than (<) Response Time 2 which should be < Response Time 3
2. Fast Period < Moderate Period < Slow Period
3. In terms of the period of a full market cycle (e.g. ~ 4 years for BTC, ~ 5.5 years for equities, etc.), response times 1, 2, and 3 should be about 0.3% to 1%, 3% to 20%, and 20% to 50% of a full market cycle period, respectively. However, this is a loose guideline.
4. In terms of the period of a full market cycle, periods 1, 2, and 3 should all be about 25% to 75% of a full cycle period. Again, this is a loose guideline.
4. EMA 1 Length < EMA 2 Length < EMA 3 Length < EMA 4 Length
5. EMA Lengths 1, 2, 3, and 4 should be limited to about 1/4th the length of a full market cycle. Note, EMA lengths are measured in bars (candles), not in days. 1/4th of 1000 days is 250 days which is 250 x 4 = 1000 6-hr candles.
The following guidelines are provided based on results of over 100 backtests on the BTCUSD chart using randomized parameters †,
1. 9 days < Response Time 1 < 14 days
2. 5 days < EMA 1 Length < 100 days
3. 600 days < EMA 4 length < 1000 days
4. The ratio of the EMA range (EMA 4 len - EMA 1 len) to the sum of EMA lengths (EMA 1 len + EMA 2 len + ...) be greater than 0.4
5. The ratio of the sum of EMA 1 and EMA 2 lengths to the sum of EMA 3 and EMA 4 lengths be less than 0.3.
A suggestion from the author: Given that backtests show a high degree of outperformance using the guidelines enumerated above, a good trading strategy may be to not rely on any one particular combination of parameters. Rather, a random set of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines above could be used to create multiple instances of the strategy in a TradingView chart, each of which varies by a small amount due to their unique parameter settings. The proportion of the entire set of strategy instances that agree about the current state of the market could indicate to the trader the level of confidence of the indicator, in aggregate.
† A sample dataset of backtest results using randomized parameters is available upon request; notably, all trials outperformed the intended market (Bitcoin).
7. General Remarks About the Indicator
Other than some exponential moving averages, no traditional technical indicators or technical analysis tools are employed in this strategy. No MACD, no RSI, no CMF, no Bollinger bands, parabolic SARs, Ichimoku clouds, hoosawatsits, XYZs, ABCs, whatarethese. No tea leaves can be found in this strategy, only mathematics. It is in the nature of the underlying math formula, from which the indicator is produced, to quickly identify trend changes.
8. Remarks About Expectations of Future Results and About Backtesting
8.1. In General
As it's been stated in many prospectuses and marketing literature, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtest results are retrospective, and hindsight is 20/20. Therefore, no guarantee can, nor should, be expressed by me or anybody else who is selling a financial product (unless you have a money printer, like the Federal Reserve does).
8.2. Regarding This Strategy
No guarantee of future results using this strategy is expressed by the author, not now nor at any time in the future.
With that written, the author is free to express his own expectations and opinions based on his intimate knowledge of how the indicator works, and the author will take that liberty by writing the following: As described in section (7), this trading strategy does not include any traditional technical indicators or TA tools (other than smoothing EMAs). Instead, this strategy is based on a principle that does not change, it employs a complex indicator that is based on a math formula that does not change, and it places trades based on five simple rules that do not change. And, as described in section (2.1), the indicator is designed to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. Additionally, as described in section (3), outperformance of the market for which this strategy was intended during backtesting does not depend on luckily setting the parameters "just right." In fact, all random combinations of parameter settings that followed the guidelines outperformed the intended market in backtests. Additionally, no parameters are included within the underlying math formula from which the indicator is produced; it is not as if the formula contains a "5" and future outperformance would depend on that "5" being a "6" instead. And, again as described, it is in the nature of the formula to quickly identify trend changes. Therefore, it is the opinion of the author that the outperformance of this strategy in backtesting is directly attributable to the fundamental nature of the math formula from which the indicator is produced. As such, it is also the opinion of the author that continued outperformance by using this strategy, applied to the crypto (Bitcoin) market, is likely, given that the parameter settings are set reasonably and in accordance with the guidelines. The author does not, however, expect future outperformance of this strategy to match or exceed the outperformance observed in backtests using the default parameters, i.e. it probably won't outperform by anything close to 13,000,000% during the next 9 years.
Additionally, based on the rolling 1-month outperformance data listed in section (3), expectations of short-term outperformance should be kept low; the median 1-month outperformance was -2%, so it's basically a 50/50 chance that any significant outperformance is seen in any given month. The true strength of this strategy is to be out of the market during large, sharp declines and capitalizing on the opportunities presented at the bottom of those declines by buying the dip. Given that such price action does not happen every month, outperformance in the initial months of use is approximately as likely as underperformance.
9. Access
Those who are interested in using this strategy may send a personal message to inquire about how to gain access. Those who are interested in acquiring the sample dataset of backtest results may send a personal message to request a copy of the data.
Rogue Profit Trend SystemThis system can be used for all assets. This script identifies trends and when to enter and exit. There is also built in risk management in the form of a take profit target or a reduction of risk to limit a losing trade. Inputs are variable and can be changed to better suit the asset and time frame you are trading. Since the risk management (take profit or limit loss) is calculated by 50% of your position, this system is designed to trade in multiples of two's. For example, you enter into a position with $100 at risk, when your risk management signal fires, it will reduce your position by 50% to either snag some profit or limit a loser leaving you with $50 in the position. Close the trade completely when the trend reverses for either a profit or loss.
Nothing about trading is easy. You will have losing trades. Managing your risk is the key to success which is why this system is so powerful. Markets are fluid and random so you will have to put some time and effort into adjusting the system inputs for each asset and the respective time frame you are trading and continue to adjust as time passes. This system will make you money if you manage it correctly and systematically.
Message me for two day trial access. Happy trading!
