Regime Dashboard (SPX / NDX / R2K / BTC / Miners / Custom) Regime Dashboard (SPX / NDX / BTC / Miners) is a market “risk regime” + breadth dashboard designed to help you avoid fighting the tape and improve timing for swings and longer holds.
This indicator does not forecast price. It measures participation / trend-health in a chosen universe and converts it into a simple RISK ON / RISK OFF regime using a smoothed breadth + hysteresis (two-threshold) engine to reduce chop.
What it measures (by mode)
1) SPX Breadth
Uses TradingView breadth symbols for the S&P 500:
% Above 200D (long-term trend participation)
% Above 50D (short-term participation)
2) Nasdaq-100 Breadth
Same concept, but for the Nasdaq-100:
% Above 200D
% Above 50D
3) BTC Trend (proxy)
BTC doesn’t have “% of components above MA”, so the indicator uses a binary trend proxy:
BTC > 200D SMA → 100, else 0
BTC > 50D SMA → 100, else 0
Smoothing turns this into a “persistence” metric (how consistently BTC stays above its long MA).
4) Miner Basket Breadth
Builds a custom basket (e.g., MARA/RIOT/CLSK/WULF/HIVE/CIFR/IREN/BTDR/HUT) and computes:
b200: % of selected miners above their own 200D SMA
b50: % above their own 50D SMA
Because baskets are smaller and step-like, this mode typically needs stronger smoothing/hysteresis.
The 3 plotted lines
200 (raw) (red): long-term participation / trend health
50 (raw) (blue): short-term participation / momentum health
Smooth(200) (white): SMA of the red line, used for regime decisions
Risk regime engine (sticky + smoothed)
Regime is determined by Smooth(200) with two thresholds (hysteresis):
If Smooth(200) ≥ Risk-ON threshold → RISK ON
If Smooth(200) ≤ Risk-OFF threshold → RISK OFF
Between thresholds → regime stays the same (“sticky”) to avoid frequent flipping.
HUD dashboard
A compact table shows:
Active mode (SPX / NDX / BTC / Miners)
Current regime (RISK ON/OFF)
200 raw / 50 raw / smoothed 200
Current parameters (smoothing + thresholds)
What it’s for
Align trades with risk conditions
Improve entry timing by waiting for breadth confirmation
Avoid “bottom picking” when the market/sector is in RISK OFF
Press winners harder when participation supports continuation
Step-by-step: How to Use It (Playbook)
Step 1 — Pick the correct mode for what you trade
Use the universe that drives your ticker:
Large caps / general equities: SPX Breadth
Tech / growth: Nasdaq-100 Breadth
Crypto exposure: BTC Trend (proxy)
Miners / BTC-linked stocks: Miner Basket Breadth
Rule: If your ticker is a “pack trade” (miners/biotech/spec small caps), use the pack’s breadth, not SPX alone.
Step 2 — Use the regime shading as your “aggression switch”
RISK ON (green background)
Favor longs / adds on pullbacks
Allow wider stops / longer holds
Expect breakouts and trend continuation to work more often
RISK OFF (red background)
Reduce size, tighten risk, take profits faster
Be skeptical of breakouts
Bottom-fishing is lower probability; prefer waiting for regime improvement
This is the core point: your strategy changes with regime.
Step 3 — Understand what the lines mean (mechanically)
Blue (50 raw) = short-term participation
Moves first at turns
Good for early “is selling pressure easing?” signals
Red (200 raw) = long-term participation
Defines whether the universe is broadly in a long-term uptrend vs downtrend
More stable, but slower to turn
White (Smooth(200)) = the decision engine
Filters noise in the red line
Prevents regime from flipping on small, temporary changes
Step 4 — Bottom timing sequence (highest probability)
For bottoms, watch the internal sequence:
RISK OFF + blue line depressed
→ the universe is weak; rallies are often “dead-cat bounces”
Blue (50) turns up (higher lows / rising trend)
→ early evidence the group is improving
Red (200) stabilizes + Smooth(200) rises
→ long-term participation starts recovering
Smooth(200) crosses above Risk-ON threshold
→ regime flips to RISK ON (confirmation that tends to last)
Use it like this:
Early entry attempts: only if you accept higher risk
Higher-probability entries: after step 2 or step 4 depending on your style
Step 5 — Trend continuation and “add points”
In RISK ON:
Adds on pullbacks work best when:
blue line stays above ~50 and/or is rising
Smooth(200) remains above the ON threshold (no loss of regime)
In RISK OFF:
Treat rallies as tactical unless internals improve.
Step 6 — Suggested starting settings (by mode)
These are starting points, not gospel.
SPX / NDX
SmoothLen: 3–5
ON/OFF: 55 / 35 (or similar)
Miners basket
SmoothLen: 7–14 (often needed because basket is step-like)
ON/OFF: 60 / 40 (wider band reduces whipsaw)
BTC proxy
SmoothLen: 10–20
ON/OFF: depends on how strict you want “trend persistence” to be
(Higher smoothing = fewer flips)
Important Notes
Breadth symbols vary by TradingView data access. If a symbol doesn’t exist on your plan, replace it in inputs.
Miner baskets are sample-based: small baskets move in steps (e.g., 1/9 ≈ 11.1%). That’s normal.
This tool is a context filter, not a standalone trading system. Use with your price structure (S/R, AVWAP, volume profile, trend MAs) for entries/exits.
“Quick Start” (2 rules)
Only press longs in RISK ON.
When hunting bottoms, watch blue (50) turn first, then wait for Smooth(200) confirmation if you want higher win-rate.
Indicatore Pine Script®
