RSI Bands [APIDEVs]RSI BANDS:
It is an exclusive product of ApiDevs , this indicator selectively integrates a series of highly advanced algorithms that aim to provide the trader with an effective and profitable trading system, based on a series of conditions that project the price direction with a reasonable probability.
This indicator bears the name of “RSI Bands” , this is because we have based this trading system on the “Relative Strength Index (RSI)” , the strength of this indicator is centennial and we at APIDEVs have decided to focus our efforts on the development of powerful tools based on the favorite indicators of the afternoon.
WHAT IT HAS INCORPORATED:
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMAs): The RSI Bands has, by default, a band composed of two moving averages of 10 and 55 exponential periods, which can be modified in the indicator menu.
• Possibility of changing the value of the EMAs.
• Function was enabled to change the color and transparency of the bands.
• Visual alerts SHORT (L) and LONG (L) were added when there is the crossing of the EMAS.
• Hull Moving Average (HMA) of 100 periods was also incorporated, also modifiable for those who wish to strengthen their visual analysis. (Disabled by default)
• We also add an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 200 periods to mark the trend. (Disabled by default).
2. A TR (Average True Range): This indicator has two main functions in the RSI Bands, the first is to mark the trend of the asset and the second is to establish a margin of safety in price volatility, that is, a maximum estimate of the setbacks without this representing a change in the direction of the price.
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index): It was visually incorporated into the RSI Bands, the graph is obtained on the right side and its purpose is to visually indicate where the price is with respect to the RSI PRO+ indicator, offering the following improvements :
• ALERT SYSTEM: THE RSI PRO+ has the ADX incorporated into its algorithm, which allows establishing a filter that will provide reliable inputs, represented by the LONG (L) and SHORT (S) signals.
• FILTER AGAINST TREND: The signals described above will be activated according to the crossing of the RSI above the 50 point, provided that the ADX agrees with the market direction.
• Possibility of deactivating this graphical representation.
4. ADX (Average Directional Index): The ADX in this indicator is intended to estimate the strength of the movement, it is present in each part of the code, either to indicate the strength of the market or to serve as a filter against trend. In the same way, we apply certain exclusive improvements for this indicator:
• It was established as default values of the ADX that the Level Range was 10 and the Level Trend 25. This significantly changes the behavior of this indicator, almost completely eliminating the zone of disinterest that was usually considered.
• A function was activated to paint the sails the color of the ADX.
5. ADX Ocillator: Yes, we developed a Wave oscillator type ADX and incorporated it into this strategy. From this indicator, which we recommend using in conjunction with the RSI Bands, we extracted the LONG (L) and SHORT (S) signals. The ADX Oscillator is the improved version of the traditional ADX as it offers the following improvements:
• Its interpretation is much simpler.
• Allows you to set entry and exit signals during the trend change and during the price path.
• It has an integrated alert system.
STRATEGY PANEL:
This panel is an exclusive creation of APIDEVs , and its purpose is to parameterize five conditionals based on the indicators that make up our RSI strategy, giving the trader an immediate vision of the status of the asset analyzed considering this strategy. That is, we decided to transfer our experience of using this indicator on a panel that will project the price trajectory visually. It has the following characteristics:
• It can be placed anywhere on the screen through the main menu of the indicator, it can even be deactivated.
• It can be resized, we designed this to adapt to all types of screens, including those of mobile phones.
• It has an upper panel called "Project" which will calculate the percentage probability that the price has to take a direction based on all the indicators incorporated into the strategy. Their values range from (+ 100%) to (-100%).
STRATEGY PANEL PARAMETERS:
1. EMAs : This panel has 2 variables:
• LONG : If the fast EMA is above the slow EMA.
• SHORT : If the fast EMA is below the slow EMA.
2. RSI : This panel has 3 variables:
• LONG : The RSI should be bullish (green) and above the 50 point.
• SHORT : The RSI should be bearish (red) and be below the 50 point.
• RANK: (Range)this condition is activated when there is no concordance with the RSI condition and its crossing.
3. ATR : This panel has 2 variables:
• LONG : When the price is above the ATR.
• SHORT : When the price is below the ATR.
4. ADX: This panel has 3 variables:
• LONG : The ADX is green. That is, the DI + is above the DI-.
• SHORT : The ADX is red. That is, the DI- is above the DI +.
• RANK : ADX is below point 10.
It also has a numerical value that indicates the value of the ADX and two texts indicating the strength of the trend:
• Trend (bullish or bearish).
• Strong trend (bullish or bearish).
5. OSC : This panel has 3 variables:
• LONG : The oscillator slopes upward and the built-in ADX is green.
• SHORT : The oscillator slopes downward and the built-in ADX is red.
• RANK : The oscillator slopes downward and the built-in ADX is green and the opposite. In short, there is no coherence in the movement of the oscillator and the projection of the ADX.
BTCUSD
KURD_TRADE Bitcoin Fibonacci Log Regressionthis indicatore show fibonacci logarithmic regression for BITCOIN and we can analyse the crypto market with it.
60-Day Accumulated Increasing RateIs this Bitcoin bull run still driven by new investors and new funds? Definitely. That’s why the 60-day accumulative increasing rate is so important and it can even determine everything. The only thing that can be trusted is the math. In history, each capital inflow uptrend bull run has ended once the 60-day accumulative increasing rate reached a high level and when the short-term euphoric investors push BTC price to rise at a fast speed and use up all kinds of leverages. At that point, there’s no time for new investors and new funds to flow in, thus the cryptocurrency market will crash from the global top.
In that sense, the crashes on 4th September, 2017 and 19th May, 2021 didn’t end the bull run, instead,they lengthened the bull run span.The last bull run cycle (2017) might have ended prematurely when BTC reached $10,000, recording 150% accumulated increase over 60 days. Then BTC won’t be pumped up to $20,000 if the course wasn’t interrupted by September 4th, 2017 incident.
Technical analysts(they are far from trustworthy, full of bollocks) call the correction of BTC: “consolidation or wipeout”, just like that diabetes is called as Liver Qi Stagnation, weight lossing, being thirsty and other symptoms. It’s quite fun to watch so many people explaining it in a false concept. Everyone knows what the maths is. That’s enough.
PS: This indicator can only be applied to Bitcoin daily chart!
Aggregated BTC SpreadThis script is used to aggregate the bitcoin spread on futures contracts on different platforms.
It works by averaging the for every selected exchange, and apply an EMA of .
It is supporting
Binance (USD / USDT)
Okex
FTX
Huobi
Deribit
Ascendex
CME (BTC1!)
NSDT Fracking CryptoThis indicator is part of our Fracking series of indicators and is specifically designed for scalping Crypto. It looks for a particular price action pattern/sequence then displays levels and a label on the chart to show a potential entry, target, and stop based on that analysis. Basically enter long through the green zones and short through the red zones. The target levels are not guaranteed to be hit, but are a good guide with high potential. Pivot Point levels were added for additional confirmation of potential key levels.
Trading is risking and you can lose money. Trade at your own discretion and risk. This indicator is only providing potential scalping zones based on recent price action.
BTC Risk Metric - Estimates the risk of BTC price versus the USD
- To be used on the daily timeframe
- Works best on a BTC pair that has a lot of bars, e.g. The Bitcoin All Time History Index
- 0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest risk
- Historically, buying when the risk was low and selling when the risk was high would have yielded good ROI
- The risk bands are 0.1 in width and are highlighted on the plot
Typical Strategy:
- weighted DCA into the market when risk <0.5, do nothing between 0.5-0.6 and weighted DCA out of the market when risk >0.6
- x = buy amount per DCA interval
- y = 1/10th total BTC held by the user
- if 0 ≤ Risk < 0.1 then buy 5x
- if 0.1 ≤ Risk < 0.2 then buy 4x
- if 0.2 ≤ Risk < 0.3 then buy 3x
- if 0.3 ≤ Risk < 0.4 then buy 2x
- if 0.4 ≤ Risk < 0.5 then buy x
- if 0.5 ≤ Risk < 0.6 then do nothing
- if 0.6 ≤ Risk < 0.7 then sell y
- if 0.7 ≤ Risk < 0.8 then sell 2y
- if 0.8 ≤ Risk < 0.9 then sell 3y
- if 0.9 ≤ Risk ≤ 1.0 then sell 4y
Roberts Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Indicator BTCIndicator Overview
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.
It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.
This updated indicator is based on the original x2 Daily Simple Moving Average Pi Cycle Top Indicator for BTCUSD but with the addition of a 3rd 350 SMA
Standard Pi Cycle SMA = 350*2 SMA + 111 SMA
Updated Pi Cycle SMA = 350*2 SMA + 111 SMA + 350 SMA
How It Can Be Used / How to Read:
Chart should be used on BTCUSD only
Chart should be set to Daily Timeframe only
Buy signal RED SMA crosses up over WHITE SMA
Sell Signal RED SMA crosses up over GREEN SMA (a vetical yellow line will indicate the cycle top)
[CP]Pivot Boss Floor Pivots with ATR Dilation and Dynamic LevelsINTRODUCTION:
Compared to all the Pivot Indicators available on Trading View Public Library, this Floor Pivots Indicator differentiates itself in two major original ways:
Dilates the Pivot Support/Resistance Levels into Support/Resistance Bands based on volatility
Displays the S/R Levels Dynamically , that is, only those levels will be shown that are close enough to the price resulting in much cleaner looking charts.
There were a few features whose logic I had figured out, but I could not implement them due Pine Script’s Limitation (they should really work on increasing Pine Script’s capacity instead of adding more and more features to the language in order to make it look ‘better’):
Showing multiple timeframe pivots at the same time (not possible due to Pine Script’s limitation on the ‘Max Number of Outputs’ )
Automatic Detection of highly profitable Double Hot Pivot Zones (DPZ), also due to the ‘Max Number of Outputs’ limit
GENERAL USER INPUTS:
Most of the settings are self-explanatory, however, a few of them need some explanation:
Show Floor Pivots Dynamically – This will turn ON the dynamic pivot levels, please note that this function will work ONLY IN INTRADAY timeframes.
Dynamic Pivot ATR Period – Period over which the ATR value is calculated to show the pivots dynamically.
ATR Threshold for Dynamic Floor Pivots – Simply put, the indicator will start displaying Pivot Levels if they fall within the 2*ATR distance (default value) of the price. You can increase this number if the volatility increases and vice-versa.
Use ATR to Dilate Intraday Pivot Levels – This will turn ON Floor Pivot Dilation, turning pivot ‘lines’ into ‘bands’ .
ATR Dilation Factor – This number decides the width of the Pivot bands. Larger this number, thicker the bands. Typically, high volatility stocks will require a higher number.
ATR Period – Same as Dynamic Pivot ATR Period, but for Pivot Level Dilation.
INDICATOR USAGE EXAMPLES:
This indicator works great in conjunction with my Pivot Boss Candlestick Scanner indicator.
There are a lot of optimizations I have done in the code, although it looks trivial at first glance, but it's fairly complex.
Feel free to use it and modify it as you wish.
Here are a few examples where the indicator has shown great entries and exits, with the default settings:
NIFTY 5m Chart
Reliance 5m Chart
Tesla 5m Chart
Bitcoin-USDT 15m Chart
FINAL WORDS:
Please understand that I have Cherry Picked the examples to showcase the capability of the indicator and its usage.
DO NOT conflate the accuracy of examples with the accuracy of this indicator.
Once you start using floor pivots, you will realize that a lot of days simply don’t give any high probability setups and you will simply sit out of the market and do nothing (which is a good thing).
If you really want to learn how to use Pivots, read the book ’Secrets of a Pivot Boss’ . This book can change your life.
BTCUSD Risk Oscillator- To be used with the BTCUSD All Time History Index (on the daily)
- Estimates the current risk of BTCUSD
- The risk model oscillates between 0 and 1 (0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest)
- Historically, buying when the risk is low and selling when the risk is high yields good ROI
- User inputs generally do not need to be changed, they are used to create integers for the normalization process
AI Crypto Signals BTCUSD 15m Ultimate ScriptBYBIT:BTCUSD
Hello everyone! Sky First Capital in partnership with AI Crypto Signals is proud to introduce the AI Crypto Signals 15M BTCUSD Ultimate Script . This script works well on the 15M, 30M, 45M and 1HR chart using traditional candles. This means no false data or inaccurate entry/exit points such as with the ones using HA candles.
The script is based upon an initial strategy developed by user Bunghole here on TradingView, but we have optimized it, back-tested it with ideal settings, and added alerts that you can use to connect with your trading bot such as Alertatron, Cornix, etc. This script uses BB (Bollinger Bands) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) as indicators for signals.
Back-testing data for the 15M chart from 7/1/2021 to 10/15/2021 showed a 51.19% profit.
Back-testing data for the 1HR chart from 7/1/2021 to 10/15/2021 showed a 191% profit.
This script does not repaint.
Ideal use is to enter and exit at the close of the candle and take-profit/stop-loss once per candle.
This script has Entry/Exit/Take-Profit/Stop-Loss alerts.
We offer consulting and training services if you need help on using this script or getting it configured with an automated trading system.
We offer a 24 hour free trial of the script, send us a message to request access.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Fractal Growth Model By ARUDDThis model, which I'm calling the Logarithmic Fractal Growth Mode (L.F.G) , uses Bitcoin's mathematical monetary policy to evaluate the future possible price valuation.
It takes into account fractal (and logarithmic) growth as well as how those who hold bitcoins might react to certain events such as changes in supply and demand. It also shows that it is mathematically logical that someday it must become stable.
The information gained from knowing this helps people make more informed decisions when buying bitcoin and thinking of its future possibilities.
The model can serve as some type of general guideline for determining how much bitcoins should be worth in the future if it follows a certain path from its current price.
Modeling Bitcoin's money supply mathematically, and knowing that there is a finite number of them, makes this whole process much more rational than just thinking about the possibilities in pure subjective terms.
Before going any further I want to say that no one can know with absolute certainty what will happen to bitcoins price in the future, but using mathematics gives us an idea of where things are headed.
The results presented here are based on very reasonable assumptions for how bitcoin might continue to grow (and then level out) once there are over 21 million bitcoins in existence.
The model shows that bitcoin's price can never go down to zero (thus creating the "death spiral" phenomenon), and as such, bitcoin has an extremely high probability of becoming stable as it approaches infinity.
Conversely, this model also shows that at some point there is a high probability that bitcoin will not continue to grow exponentially forever.
Credit goes to Quantadelic for the awesome original script.
ARUDD
Super D2Momentum Indicator based on previous candle structure over past 40 periods
- Blue is momentum score
- Green = 15 ema
- Red = 50 sma
- orange = 100 sma
The indicator looks at the previous candles differences between open, close, high, and low to determine momentum. A high close relative to open or low indicates very strong momentum for example.
NVT & HV ComboFamous NVT indicator combinated with HV
Use with BTC weekly or daily chart . Blue line represents HV 40 threshold.
Interpretation:
Red above threshold -> regular bearish
Green above threshold-> regular bullish
Red crossing threshold from below to above -> very bearish
Green crossing threshold from below to above -> very bullish
NVT + HV CombinationFamous NVT indicator combinated with HV
Use with BTC weekly or daily chart. Yellow line represents HV 40 threshold.
Interpretation:
White above threshold -> regular bearish
Red above threshold-> regular bullish
White crossing threshold from below to above -> very bearish
White crossing threshold from below to above -> very bullish
Kimchi Premium Indicator with Selectable SymbolsThis indicator is the Korea Premium, also known as “Kimchi Premium” indicator, which shows how expensive and cheap the bitcoin price of the bitcoin exchange in Korea as compared to the bitcoin price traded in dollars or tether. Previously, the Kimchi premium indicator in TradingView does not have the recently added Upbit BTCKRW market, and it is not possible to select markets. In addition to the recently added Upbit BTCKRW market, this indicator is convenient because you can select all markets offered by TradingView. Therefore, not only bitcoin but also altcoin kimchi premium can be plotted.
▶ Usefulness and Originality
- Users can choose from various BTCKRW and BTCUSD markets.
- Users can plot altcoin Kimchi Premium in addition to Bitcoin.
_____________________________________________________________
이 지표는 달러 혹은 테더로 거래되고 있는 비트코인 가격 대비 한국에 있는 비트코인 거래소의 비트코인 원화 가격이 얼마나 비싸고 싼 지를 나타내는 코리아 프리미엄, 일명 "김치 프리미엄" 지표입니다. 이전에 트레이딩뷰에 있는 김치 프리미엄 지표는 최근에 추가된 업비트 BTCKRW 시장이 없을 뿐만 아니라 마켓을 선택할 수가 없습니다. 이 지표는 최근에 추가된 업비트 BTCKRW 마켓과 더불어 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하는 모든 마켓을 선택할 수 있어 편리합니다. 따라서 비트코인 뿐 만 아니라 알트코인의 김치 프리미엄도 plot할 수가 있습니다.
▶ 유용성과 독창성
- 사용자가 다양한 BTCKRW 및 BTCUSD 마켓을 선택할 수 있음
- 사용자가 비트코인 외에 알트코인 김치프리미엄도 plot 할 수 있음
Chanu Delta IndicatorThe Chanu Delta Indicator was created as the price difference between the two markets using the principle that the Bitcoin price fluctuations in the BTCUSD market on the BYBIT exchange are greater in the BTCUSDT market. This indicator shows the strength of the current market's buys and sells, and helps in short-term trading.
Chanu Delta Indicator (Δ) = BTCUSD ($) - BTCUSDT ($) (Unit: Dollar, Source: Close)
● Δ > 100 : Strong Buy
● 20 < Δ < 100 : Buy
● -20 < Δ < 20 : Neutral
● -100 < Δ < -20 : Sell
● Δ < -100 : Strong Sell
RTA MACD IndicatorRTA MACD Indicator comes from RTA Academy, author: RTA-Ruomise, public indicator.
instruction
This indicator is different from the traditional MACD indicator. The indicator combines the double moving average system with the traditional MACD indicator to judge the trend, and has made a new definition of the fast and slow lines and smooth lines, which is limited to the digital currency market.
And a logarithmic version is added, because as the price of BTC in the digital currency market rises, the BTC base is much higher than before. MACD fast and slow lines indicate price changes. In order to better judge the rate of price changes, the fast and slow lines are processed logarithmically, so that the speed of price changes can be observed more intuitively.
And the new deviation identification function, because there are many ways to define market deviation, according to the author's definition of identification deviation.
Function
Select【Logarithmic Edition】【Original Edition】【Volume Edition】
Modify the length of the fast line (default 14)
Modify the length of the slow line (default 28)
Fast and slow line smoothing (default 10)
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
RTA MACD Indicator 来自RTA学院，作者：RTA-Ruomise, 公开指标。
RTA MACD Indicator 中文名 RTA MACD指标
说明
该指标不同于传统MACD指标，指标结合双均线系统，配合传统MACD指标对趋势进行判断，对快慢线和平滑线做了新的定义，仅限于数字货币市场使用。
并新增对数版，因为随着数字货币市场BTC价格升高，BTC基数比之前高得多。MACD快慢线表示是价格变化，为了更好判断出价格变动的速率，对快慢线进行对数处理，这样便能更加直观观察价格变化的速度。
且新增背离标识功能，因为市场背离的方式定义非常多，根据作者定义标识背离情况。
功能
选择【对数版】【原版】【成交量版】
修改快线长度（默认14）
修改慢线长度（默认28）
快慢线平滑（默认10）
当前版本
2021/07/30 V2.2
Bitcoin S2F(X)This indicator shows the BTCUSD price based on the S2F Model by PlanB.
We can see not only the S2F(Stock-to-Flow) but also the S2FX(Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset) model announced in 2020.
█ Overview
In this model, bitcoin is treated as comparable to commodities such as gold .
These commodities are known as "store of value" commodities because they retain their value over time due to their relative scarcity.
Bitcoins are scarce.
The number of coins in existence is limited, and the rate of supply is at an all-time low because mining the 2.2 million outstanding coins that have yet to be mined requires a lot of power and computing power.
The Stock-to-flow ratio is used to evaluate the current stock of a commodity (the total amount currently available) versus the flow of new production (the amount mined in a given year).
The higher this ratio, the more scarce the commodity is and the more valuable it is as a store of value.
█ How To View
On the above chart price is overlaid on top of the S2F(X) line. We can see that price has continued to follow the stock-to-flow of Bitcoin over time. By observing the S2F(X) line, we can expect to be able to predict where the price will go.
The coloured circles on the price line of this chart show the number of days until the next Bitcoin halving event. This is an event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur every 210,000 blocks until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network. That makes stock-to-flow ratio (scarcity) higher so in theory price should go up.
The stock-to-flow line on this chart incorporates a 463-day average into the model to smooth out the changes caused in the market by the halving events.
I recommend using this indicator on a weekly or monthly basis for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD .
█ Reference Script
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Multiple by yomofoV
MacroCorrelation (Bitcoin Real Value)The best minds in the financial world think about how to determine the real value of an asset.
I constantly say that it is necessary to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value. Let's see what is the difference between these two concepts.
Fundamental value
Imagine that we decided to grow and sell, for example, strawberries. For this, we purchased the necessary equipment, tools, fertilizers, seeds, and more. Let's say that we needed $ 3000 for this purpose.
To facilitate the task, in our calculation we will not take into account all types of possible costs (electricity cost, workers' wages, necessary tax deductions, etc.).
If we had to take a loan to meet the initial needs, for example, at 10% per annum , then each borrowed $ 1000 in a year would cost us $ 1100. That is, $ 3000 would cost us $ 3300 per year.
Let's agree that our initial funds were completely enough to buy everything we needed, and we didn't need to take out a loan at a certain percentage. In this case, we exclude from the calculation the cost of the capital required to start your own business.
Suppose we managed to harvest 100 kg of strawberries. This means that the real value (fundamental value) of 1 kg of our strawberries is $ 30.
Market price
Things are a little different with the market price. The market price is determined by the volume of supply and demand for a particular product or service at a particular point in time.
By demand, we mean the intention to purchase a product or service (secured by the ability to pay a set price for it). A need that exceeds solvency is not a demand.
By offer, we mean the willingness to provide ownership (use) of the object of demand for a certain fee.
Simply put, the market price is the price at which the buyer is willing to buy (and the seller to sell) the volume of goods we need.
In our case, the price at which we sell 1 kg of our strawberries will depend on how much people really need our strawberries.
If we are the only sellers of strawberries in a certain territory and, at the same time, buyers really want to taste fresh strawberries, its market price can be as high as the last buyer is able to pay. If not, everything will depend on how high quality our product will be for its price. At the same time, the price constantly varies over a certain period of time ( seasonality and other factors). For example, if in winter we could sell 1 kg of our strawberries for $ 90, then in summer for $ 50. Strawberry prices range from $ 50 to $ 90.
Magic formula
We now understand what is the difference between fundamental value and market price. If the first is made up exclusively of a set of real metrics, the second is a variable factor that depends primarily on “human factors” (what is the maximum price the buyer is willing to pay, what is the minimum price the seller is willing to set at a particular moment in time).
You should try to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value.
However, how can you independently determine the fundamental value of an asset?
Unfortunately, there is no universal answer to this question, just as there is no universal “magic formula” in nature (my sincere respect, Joel Greenblatt) that could determine the fundamental value of any asset on the planet. The point is precisely in the criterion of universality. If we consider each asset (or at least the market) separately, we can well determine its fundamental value.
Even those things that seem free to us in everyday life (just their cost are negligible) have a fundamental value.
Three factors to assess the fundamental value of Bitcoin
Let's try to take a separate asset, for example Bitcoin , and do with it everything that we did earlier with our “strawberry business”.
When assessing the real (fundamental) value of Bitcoin , we will take into account 3 main factors.
1. The maximum possible and current supply in the Bitcoin market
The reward for mining a Bitcoin block is halved every 210,000 blocks. This fact is called halving (halving). When all blocks are mined, the total amount of existing bitcoins will be 21 million coins.
Accordingly, the maximum supply in the Bitcoin network will not exceed 21 million coins.
In reality, things are even better, since this volume also includes a certain amount of lost coins. By lost, we mean all those coins whose “private keys” the last owner no longer has access to. For example, at the time of the appearance of Bitcoin in 2009, its real value was doubtful and not obvious to most of its owners, many of whom did not pay due attention to understanding the safe storage of an asset, periodically losing access to hundreds and thousands of coins.
As a result, we understand that the total supply in the Bitcoin market will be significantly less than 21 million coins.
To evaluate the proposal, it is not enough to understand how much of the asset exists, because a certain amount of it, as we have already understood, can either be lost or be blocked for a long time. It is also important to take into account the criterion of “supply in time”. That is, the current total “liquidity” of the network.
2. Bitcoin network hashrate
The main indicator of the viability and stability of the Bitcoin network is the hash rate (computing power). Stable hashrate = network security.
3. The real value of the US dollar
When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar .
It is believed that assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile (the price can change over a wide range within a relatively short period of time). At the same time, to reduce volatility , experts advise using the so-called “currency baskets”.
A currency basket is a certain percentage of foreign currencies in which the investor's capital can be distributed. The ratio of currency units in the basket is used to reduce the potential risk of currency fluctuations.
The main problem is that, due to inflation , the purchasing power of the currencies themselves drops significantly over time.
With the $ 100 we earned in 1913, already in the 1920s we could have purchased 50% fewer goods and services than before. In the 1980s, it was 90% less, and in the 2010s it was already 98% less.
This fact must also be taken into account when assessing the real value of Bitcoin , since everything is relative, and in the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, we determine the value of Bitcoin , expressed in US dollars.
The real value of Bitcoin
After assessing the relationship of the factors described above and drawing up a mathematical formula, we can proceed to the analysis of the results. In order to cut off unnecessary noise when constructing the function, we will use the graph for 1 month.
Analyzing the resulting chart, first of all, the following is striking: the fundamental value of Bitcoin grows over time. This is due to the gradual expansion of the "user base" of the network, as well as the growth of its popularity among investors of completely different classes.
I propose to compare the graph obtained earlier with the graph of Internet users (in% of the number of adult US citizens ). Similar, don't they?
The more the number of Internet users, the higher its influence and economic potential. The more the number of users of the Bitcoin network, the higher its economic potential and fundamental value.
However, understanding the fundamental value alone is not enough. We, as investors, first of all need to understand when to buy any asset.
To do this, compare the chart of the market price of Bitcoin with the chart of its fundamental value obtained earlier.
Now that we have a complete picture of what is happening and understand both the fundamental value of the asset and its market price, the fact of the numerical prevalence of the price over the fundamental value for 116 out of 133 months becomes quite clear. Periods of Bitcoin being below its fundamental value are extremely rare and only take ~ 13% of the trading time.
For about 87% of all trading time, Bitcoin's market price is above its fundamental value. Those rare periods when traders are willing to sell bitcoin below its fundamental value are an incredible gift for a long-term investor.
Bull and Bear Markets
If you buy Bitcoin (like any other asset) below its fundamental value, this is an absolutely incredible idea in terms of potential profitability, who in their right mind would sell their assets below this mark ?!
It's all about the emotionality of people. Saying “I will not do stupid things when the time is right” is easier than actually maintaining composure. Especially when it comes to money. Your money. And sometimes even dreams.
The classical market theory usually divides the market into two main phases: A bull market is a period of time during which the price rises systematically (accordingly, the demands and expectations of traders gradually grow). A bear market is a period of time during which the price gradually falls (accordingly, traders' requests and expectations gradually fall).
There is also the concept of “correction”: A correction is a temporary change in the price of an asset, contrary to the main trend.
For the current day, there is not a single clear criterion that separates the concept of a bear / bull market from the concept of a correction. However, we can say with confidence that the market change (from bullish to bearish or from bearish to bullish ) is interconnected with the fundamental factors of the market. Corrections, on the other hand, have significantly less connection with fundamental indicators.
and are rather related to the “physiology of the market” (nothing can only rise in price every unit of time for a significantly long time, nothing can only fall in price every unit of time for a significantly long time).
In this case, the most rational would be to define a bear market as a delay in updating the absolute historical highs of the price with a preliminary touch of the fundamental value.
Buying below the fundamental value is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental value, since, in most cases, it is the touch of the fundamental value that globally separates a bear and a bull market.
Fun fact: If we were to buy Bitcoin every time it touched the fundamental value, the average buy price as of July 2021 would be $ 1,506.65, which is 87% less than the current fundamental value of Bitcoin .
Conclusions
1. The total amount of Bitcoins , as well as the speed of their production (mining) over time, are programmatically limited, which limits the volume of the maximum possible supply
2. Bitcoin is transported, which means that the volume of supply for the current minute will also depend on the actual volume of assets available for sale
3. The viability of the network is based on the amount of computer power supporting it (network hash rate)
4. When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar
5. Price ≠ fundamental value
6. Buying below the fundamental is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental.
7. Don't believe the headlines of financial news and the public words of financiers
8. Selling strawberries can make a fortune too
Trend From Volume And Price (TFVAP)Indicator that indicates buying and selling times based on price and volume and who is imposed of the two (VAP).
It uses the trends of the Dow theory (primary: 365 days/1 year, secondary: 90 days/3 months and tertiary: 21 days/3 weeks) and the identification of Elliot waves, both impulse and correction, based on the Fibonacci retracements (23.61% , 38.2%, etc.).
- Purple line is the evolution in percentage of the price in the primary trend
- Blue line is the evolution in percentage of the volume in the primary trend
- White line is the evolution in percentage of the (volume % - price %) in the primary trend, if white line > 0
- Green triangleup is time of start to buy
- Green square is time of stop to buy
- Red triangledown is time of sell
To understand it better:
If the purple line goes up it indicates that the price is rising, if it goes down, that the price is down.
If the blue line is greater than 0 it indicates that there are more purchases than sales, if the blue line is less than 0 it indicates that there are more sales than purchases.
If the white line is greater than 0 there is a high volume of purchases or low sales for the price that there is, it is likely that the price will rise.
If the white line is less than 0 there is a low volume of purchases or high sales for the price that there is, it is likely that the price will go down.
PD: Ignore the chart drawings, the indicator script is only represented at the bottom
B1rd's Puell MultipleThis metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - bitcoin miners and their revenue.
It explores market cycles from a mining revenue perspective. Bitcoin miners are sometimes referred to as compulsory sellers due to their need to cover fixed costs of mining hardware in a market where price is extremely volatile. The revenue they generate can therefore influence price over time.
The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.
So far, buying below 0.5 and taking profit above 4.0 has been proven profitable over the years.
This version allows you to expiriment with different moving average types.
I might update this version in the future with more expirimental tools of measurements, I just need some idea's to work with. So feel free to comment on what you'd like to see added to this version.
Moonraker OSC 1.1 Moonraker OSC complements the standard moonraker indicator shown on the chart and linked below.
Uses standard divergences within the deviation from the mean to identify trend weakness in the market.
Moonraker 1.3Bespoke Decentrader Mean Reversion Strategy
Colour coded mean line using price and volume
Volatility Bands
Major support and resistance plotted lines
Suggested dynamic hard stop placement
Built for all markets
A realistic strategy for multi-asset portfolio management
Complementary components to assist other indicators/strategies
Key D1 Strategy:
Designed for the 1D+ chart
The overall assumption is that price gravitates towards the mean
The intention is to remain in the market directionally as long as possible
1) Once the asset closes the period above the mean line the asset is considered to be bullish
2) Trader will wait and look to buy close to the developing mean line
3) Trader once filled, remains long
4) If price closes below the mean line, trader will place asks/sell orders close to the developing mean line
5) Trader moves asks along developing mean line until the trade is exited
6) Trader waits in a neutral position until condition 1) is met
Other strategy consideration ;
7) Support and resistance plotted lines can also be used to overrule condition 6) i.e. if the asset falls to a key support area AND trader has already exited, they can look to re-enter and be long to the mean line at which point condition 5) is met
8) Volatility bands can be used as a warning around the deviation from the mean line and probability of reversal
9) Hard stops can be used -> there is a general trade-off between volatility and remaining in the trade – Dynamic hard stops can be used if the trader wishes to add a layer of additional risk management to mitigate unusual volatile events. Should a stop be triggered, waiting for either condition 1) 7) or 8) are met before entering.
Other consideration;
- Works well alongside the Predator indicator; adding additional confluence to the strategy or identifying entries if predator is already within a trend where the initial entry was missed.
