Simple Time-Based Strategy(Price Action Hypothesis)Core Theory: Trend Continuation Pattern Recognition**
1. **Price Action Hypothesis**
The strategy is built on the assumption that consecutive price movements (3-bar patterns) indicate momentum continuation:
- *Long Pattern*: Three consecutive higher closes combined with ascending highs
- *Short Pattern*: Three consecutive lower closes combined with descending lows
This reflects a belief that sustained directional price movement creates self-reinforcing trends that can be captured through simple pattern recognition.
2. **Time-Based Risk Management**
Implements a dynamic exit mechanism:
- *Training Phase*: 5-bar holding period (quick turnover)
- *Testing Phase*: 10-bar holding period (extended exposure)
This dual timeframe approach suggests the hypothesis that market conditions may require different holding durations in different market eras.
3. **Adaptive Market Hypothesis**
The structure incorporates two distinct phases:
- *Training Period (11 years)*: Pattern recognition without stop losses
- *Testing Period*: Pattern recognition with stop losses
This assumes markets may change character over time, requiring different risk parameters in different epochs.
4. **Asymmetric Risk Control**
Implements stop-losses only in the testing phase:
- Fixed 500-pip (point) stop distance
- Activated post-training period
This reflects a belief that historical patterns might need different risk constraints than real-time trading.
5. **Dual-Path Validation**
The split between training/testing phases suggests:
- Pattern validity should first be confirmed without protective stops
- Real-world implementation requires added risk constraints
6. **Market Efficiency Paradox**
The simultaneous use of both long/short entries assumes:
- Markets exhibit persistent inefficiencies
- These inefficiencies manifest differently in bullish/bearish conditions
- A symmetric approach can capture opportunities in both directions
7. **Behavioral Finance Elements**
The 3-bar pattern recognition potentially exploits:
- Herd mentality in trend formation
- Delayed reaction to price momentum
- Cognitive bias in trend confirmation
8. **Quantitative Time Segmentation**
The annual-based period division (training vs testing) implies:
- Market cycles operate on multi-year timeframes
- Strategy robustness requires validation across different market regimes
- Parameter sensitivity needs temporal validation
This strategy combines elements of technical pattern recognition, temporal adaptability, and phased risk management to create a systematic approach to trend exploitation. The theoretical framework suggests markets exhibit persistent but evolving patterns that can be systematically captured through rule-based execution.
Cicli
Volatility Momentum Breakout StrategyDescription:
Overview:
The Volatility Momentum Breakout Strategy is designed to capture significant price moves by combining a volatility breakout approach with trend and momentum filters. This strategy dynamically calculates breakout levels based on market volatility and uses these levels along with trend and momentum conditions to identify trade opportunities.
How It Works:
1. Volatility Breakout:
• Methodology:
The strategy computes the highest high and lowest low over a defined lookback period (excluding the current bar to avoid look-ahead bias). A multiple of the Average True Range (ATR) is then added to (or subtracted from) these levels to form dynamic breakout thresholds.
• Purpose:
This method helps capture significant price movements (breakouts) while ensuring that only past data is used, thereby maintaining realistic signal generation.
2. Trend Filtering:
• Methodology:
A short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is applied to determine the prevailing trend.
• Purpose:
Long trades are considered only when the current price is above the EMA, indicating an uptrend, while short trades are taken only when the price is below the EMA, indicating a downtrend.
3. Momentum Confirmation:
• Methodology:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is used to gauge market momentum.
• Purpose:
For long entries, the RSI must be above a mid-level (e.g., above 50) to confirm upward momentum, and for short entries, it must be below a similar threshold. This helps filter out signals during overextended conditions.
Entry Conditions:
• Long Entry:
A long position is triggered when the current closing price exceeds the calculated long breakout level, the price is above the short-term EMA, and the RSI confirms momentum (e.g., above 50).
• Short Entry:
A short position is triggered when the closing price falls below the calculated short breakout level, the price is below the EMA, and the RSI confirms momentum (e.g., below 50).
Risk Management:
• Position Sizing:
Trades are sized to risk a fixed percentage of account equity (set here to 5% per trade in the code, with each trade’s stop loss defined so that risk is limited to approximately 2% of the entry price).
• Stop Loss & Take Profit:
A stop loss is placed a fixed ATR multiple away from the entry price, and a take profit target is set to achieve a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
• Realistic Backtesting:
The strategy is backtested using an initial capital of $10,000, with a commission of 0.1% per trade and slippage of 1 tick per bar—parameters chosen to reflect conditions faced by the average trader.
Important Disclaimers:
• No Look-Ahead Bias:
All breakout levels are calculated using only past data (excluding the current bar) to ensure that the strategy does not “peek” into future data.
• Educational Purpose:
This strategy is experimental and provided solely for educational purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• User Responsibility:
Traders should thoroughly backtest and paper trade the strategy under various market conditions and adjust parameters to fit their own risk tolerance and trading style before live deployment.
Conclusion:
By integrating volatility-based breakout signals with trend and momentum filters, the Volatility Momentum Breakout Strategy offers a unique method to capture significant price moves in a disciplined manner. This publication provides a transparent explanation of the strategy’s components and realistic backtesting parameters, making it a useful tool for educational purposes and further customization by the TradingView community.
Multi-Timeframe RSI Grid Strategy with ArrowsKey Features of the Strategy
Multi-Timeframe RSI Analysis:
The strategy calculates RSI values for three different timeframes:
The current chart's timeframe.
Two higher timeframes (configurable via higher_tf1 and higher_tf2 inputs).
It uses these RSI values to identify overbought (sell) and oversold (buy) conditions.
Grid Trading System:
The strategy uses a grid-based approach to scale into trades. It adds positions at predefined intervals (grid_space) based on the ATR (Average True Range) and a grid multiplication factor (grid_factor).
The grid system allows for pyramiding (adding to positions) up to a maximum number of grid levels (max_grid).
Daily Profit Target:
The strategy has a daily profit target (daily_target). Once the target is reached, it closes all open positions and stops trading for the day.
Drawdown Protection:
If the open drawdown exceeds 2% of the account equity, the strategy closes all positions to limit losses.
Reverse Signals:
If the RSI conditions reverse (e.g., from buy to sell or vice versa), the strategy closes all open positions and resets the grid.
Visualization:
The script plots buy and sell signals as arrows on the chart.
It also plots the RSI values for the current and higher timeframes, along with overbought and oversold levels.
How It Works
Inputs:
The user can configure parameters like RSI length, overbought/oversold levels, higher timeframes, grid spacing, lot size multiplier, maximum grid levels, daily profit target, and ATR length.
RSI Calculation:
The RSI is calculated for the current timeframe and the two higher timeframes using ta.rsi().
Grid System:
The grid system uses the ATR to determine the spacing between grid levels (grid_space).
When the price moves in the desired direction, the strategy adds positions at intervals of grid_space, increasing the lot size by a multiplier (lot_multiplier) for each new grid level.
Entry Conditions:
A buy signal is generated when the RSI is below the oversold level on all three timeframes.
A sell signal is generated when the RSI is above the overbought level on all three timeframes.
Position Management:
The strategy scales into positions using the grid system.
It closes all positions if the daily profit target is reached or if a reverse signal is detected.
Visualization:
Buy and sell signals are plotted as arrows on the chart.
RSI values for all timeframes are plotted, along with overbought and oversold levels.
Example Scenario
Suppose the current RSI is below 30 (oversold), and the RSI on the 60-minute and 240-minute charts is also below 30. This triggers a buy signal.
The strategy enters a long position with a base lot size.
If the price moves against the position by grid_space, the strategy adds another long position with a larger lot size (scaled by lot_multiplier).
This process continues until the maximum grid level (max_grid) is reached or the daily profit target is achieved.
Key Variables
grid_level: Tracks the current grid level (number of positions added).
last_entry_price: Tracks the price of the last entry.
base_size: The base lot size for the initial position.
daily_profit_target: The daily profit target in percentage terms.
target_reached: A flag to indicate whether the daily profit target has been achieved.
Potential Use Cases
This strategy is suitable for traders who want to combine RSI-based signals with a grid trading approach to capitalize on mean-reverting price movements.
It can be used in trending or ranging markets, depending on the RSI settings and grid parameters.
Limitations
The grid trading system can lead to significant drawdowns if the market moves strongly against the initial position.
The strategy relies heavily on RSI, which may produce false signals in strongly trending markets.
The daily profit target may limit potential gains in highly volatile markets.
Customization
You can adjust the input parameters (e.g., RSI length, overbought/oversold levels, grid spacing, lot multiplier) to suit your trading style and market conditions.
You can also modify the drawdown protection threshold or add additional filters (e.g., volume, moving averages) to improve the strategy's performance.
In summary, this script is a sophisticated trading strategy that combines RSI-based signals with a grid trading system to manage entries, exits, and position sizing. It includes features like daily profit targets, drawdown protection, and multi-timeframe analysis to enhance its robustnes
21DMTSHere's a test Pine Script that looks for the 21 ema to be rising or falling. Just really testing out if I can link a chart with a strategy.
3 Down, 3 Up Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "3 Down, 3 Up Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to capitalize on short-term price reversals. It enters a long position after consecutive bearish closes and exits after consecutive bullish closes. This strategy is NOT optimized and can be used on any timeframes.
█ WHAT ARE CONSECUTIVE DOWN/UP CLOSES?
- Consecutive Down Closes: A sequence of trading bars where each close is lower than the previous close.
- Consecutive Up Closes: A sequence of trading bars where each close is higher than the previous close.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The price closes lower than the previous close for Consecutive Down Closes for Entry (default: 3) consecutive bars.
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between Start Time and End Time).
If enabled, the close price must also be above the 200-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the price closes higher than the previous close for Consecutive Up Closes for Exit (default: 3) consecutive bars.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Consecutive Down Closes for Entry: Number of consecutive lower closes required to trigger a buy. Default = 3.
Consecutive Up Closes for Exit: Number of consecutive higher closes required to exit. Default = 3.
EMA Filter: Optional 200-period EMA filter to confirm long entries in bullish trends. Default = disabled.
Start Time and End Time: Restrict trading to specific dates (default: 2014-2099).
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
Designed for volatile markets with frequent short-term reversals.
Performs best when price oscillates between clear support/resistance levels.
The EMA filter improves reliability in trending markets but may reduce trade frequency.
Backtest to optimize consecutive close thresholds and EMA period for specific instruments.
Internal Bar Strength (IBS) Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Internal Bar Strength (IBS) Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify trading opportunities based on the closing price's position within the daily price range. It enters a long position when the IBS indicates oversold conditions and exits when the IBS reaches overbought levels. This strategy was designed to be used on the daily timeframe.
█ WHAT IS INTERNAL BAR STRENGTH (IBS)?
Internal Bar Strength (IBS) measures where the closing price falls within the high-low range of a bar. It is calculated as:
IBS = (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
- **Low IBS (≤ 0.2)**: Indicates the close is near the bar's low, suggesting oversold conditions.
- **High IBS (≥ 0.8)**: Indicates the close is near the bar's high, suggesting overbought conditions.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The IBS value drops below the Lower Threshold (default: 0.2).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the IBS value rises to or above the Upper Threshold (default: 0.8). This prompts the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Upper Threshold: The IBS level at which the strategy exits trades. Default is 0.8.
Lower Threshold: The IBS level at which the strategy enters long positions. Default is 0.2.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for ranging markets and performs best when prices frequently revert to the mean.
It is sensitive to extreme IBS values, which help identify potential reversals.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the Upper/Lower Thresholds for specific instruments and market conditions.
Buy on 5 day low Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Buy on 5 Day Low Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential buying opportunities when the price drops below the lowest low of the previous five days. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the price exceeds the high of the previous day. This strategy is optimized for use on daily or higher timeframes.
█ WHAT IS THE 5-DAY LOW?
The 5-Day Low is the lowest price observed over the last five days. This level is used as a reference to identify potential oversold conditions and reversal points.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The close price is below the lowest low of the previous five days (`close < _lowest `).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the current closing price exceeds the high of the previous day (`close > high `). This indicates that the price has shown strength, potentially confirming the reversal and prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for mean-reverting markets and performs best when the price frequently oscillates around key support levels.
It is sensitive to oversold conditions, as indicated by the 5-Day Low, and overbought conditions, as indicated by the previous day's high.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the strategy for specific instruments and market conditions.
3-Bar Low Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "3-Bar Low Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential buying opportunities when the price drops below the lowest low of the previous three bars. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the price exceeds the highest high of the previous seven bars. This strategy is suitable for use on various timeframes.
█ WHAT IS THE 3-BAR LOW?
The 3-Bar Low is the lowest price observed over the last three bars. This level is used as a reference to identify potential oversold conditions and reversal points.
█ WHAT IS THE 7-BAR HIGH?
The 7-Bar High is the highest price observed over the last seven bars. This level is used as a reference to identify potential overbought conditions and exit points.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The close price is below the lowest low of the previous three bars (`close < _lowest `).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
If the EMA Filter is enabled, the close price must also be above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the current closing price exceeds the highest high of the previous seven bars (`close > _highest `). This indicates that the price has shown strength, potentially confirming the reversal and prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
MA Period: The lookback period for the 200-period EMA used in the EMA Filter. Default is 200.
Use EMA Filter: Enables or disables the EMA Filter for long entries. Default is disabled.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for mean-reverting markets and performs best when the price frequently oscillates around key support and resistance levels.
It is sensitive to oversold conditions, as indicated by the 3-Bar Low, and overbought conditions, as indicated by the 7-Bar High.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the MA Period and EMA Filter settings for specific instruments.
Bollinger Bands Reversal + IBS Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Bollinger Bands Reversal Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential buying opportunities when the price deviates below the lower Bollinger Band and the Internal Bar Strength (IBS) indicates oversold conditions. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the IBS indicates overbought conditions. This strategy is suitable for use on various timeframes.
█ WHAT ARE BOLLINGER BANDS?
Bollinger Bands consist of three lines:
- **Basis**: A Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the price over a specified period.
- **Upper Band**: The basis plus a multiple of the standard deviation of the price.
- **Lower Band**: The basis minus a multiple of the standard deviation of the price.
Bollinger Bands help identify periods of high volatility and potential reversal points.
█ WHAT IS INTERNAL BAR STRENGTH (IBS)?
Internal Bar Strength (IBS) is a measure of where the closing price is relative to the high and low of the bar. It is calculated as:
IBS = (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
A low IBS value (e.g., below 0.2) indicates that the close is near the low of the bar, suggesting oversold conditions. A high IBS value (e.g., above 0.8) indicates that the close is near the high of the bar, suggesting overbought conditions.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The IBS value is below 0.2, indicating oversold conditions.
The close price is below the lower Bollinger Band.
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the IBS value exceeds 0.8, indicating overbought conditions. This prompts the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Length: The lookback period for calculating the Bollinger Bands. Default is 20.
Multiplier: The number of standard deviations used to calculate the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. Default is 2.0.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for mean-reverting markets and performs best when the price frequently deviates from the Bollinger Bands.
It is sensitive to oversold and overbought conditions, as indicated by the IBS, which helps to identify potential reversals.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the Length and Multiplier parameters for specific instruments.
Average High-Low Range + IBS Reversal Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Average High-Low Range + IBS Reversal Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential buying opportunities when the price deviates significantly from its average high-low range and the Internal Bar Strength (IBS) indicates oversold conditions. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the price shows strength by exceeding the previous bar's high. This strategy is suitable for use on various timeframes.
█ WHAT IS THE AVERAGE HIGH-LOW RANGE?
The Average High-Low Range is calculated as the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the difference between the high and low prices over a specified period. It helps identify periods of increased volatility and potential reversal points.
█ WHAT IS INTERNAL BAR STRENGTH (IBS)?
Internal Bar Strength (IBS) is a measure of where the closing price is relative to the high and low of the bar. It is calculated as:
IBS = (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
A low IBS value (e.g., below 0.2) indicates that the close is near the low of the bar, suggesting oversold conditions.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The close price has been below the buy threshold (calculated as `upper - (2.5 * hl_avg)`) for a specified number of consecutive bars (`bars_below_threshold`).
The IBS value is below the specified buy threshold (`ibs_buy_treshold`).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the current closing price exceeds the high of the previous bar (`close > high `). This indicates that the price has shown strength, potentially confirming the reversal and prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Length: The lookback period for calculating the average high-low range. Default is 20.
Bars Below Threshold: The number of consecutive bars the price must remain below the buy threshold to trigger a Buy Signal. Default is 2.
IBS Buy Threshold: The IBS value below which a Buy Signal is triggered. Default is 0.2.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for mean-reverting markets and performs best when the price frequently deviates from its average high-low range.
It is sensitive to oversold conditions, as indicated by the IBS, which helps to identify potential reversals.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the Length, Bars Below Threshold, and IBS Buy Threshold parameters for specific instruments.
Turn of the Month Strategy on Steroids█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Turn of the Month Strategy on Steroids" is a seasonal mean-reversion strategy designed to capitalize on price movements around the end of the month. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions. This strategy is optimized for use on daily or higher timeframes.
█ WHAT IS THE TURN OF THE MONTH EFFECT?
The Turn of the Month effect refers to the observed tendency of stock prices to rise around the end of the month. This strategy leverages this phenomenon by entering long positions when the price shows signs of a reversal during this period.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The current day of the month is greater than or equal to the specified `dayOfMonth` threshold (default is 25).
The close price is lower than the previous day's close (`close < close `).
The previous day's close is also lower than the close two days ago (`close < close `).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
There is no existing open position (`strategy.position_size == 0`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the 2-period RSI exceeds 65, indicating overbought conditions. This prompts the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Day of Month: The day of the month threshold for triggering a Buy Signal. Default is 25.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed to exploit seasonal price patterns around the end of the month.
It performs best in markets where the Turn of the Month effect is pronounced.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the `dayOfMonth` threshold and RSI parameters for specific instruments.
Consecutive Bars Above/Below EMA Buy the Dip Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Consecutive Bars Above/Below EMA Buy the Dip Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential buying opportunities when the price dips below a moving average for a specified number of consecutive bars. It enters a long position when the dip condition is met and exits when the price shows strength by exceeding the previous bar's high. This strategy is suitable for use on various timeframes.
█ WHAT IS THE MOVING AVERAGE?
The strategy uses either a Simple Moving Average (SMA) or an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a reference for identifying dips. The type and length of the moving average can be customized in the settings.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The close price is below the selected moving average for a specified number of consecutive bars (`consecutiveBarsTreshold`).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the current closing price exceeds the high of the previous bar (`close > high `). This indicates that the price has shown strength, potentially confirming the reversal and prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Consecutive Bars Threshold: The number of consecutive bars the price must remain below the moving average to trigger a Buy Signal. Default is 3.
MA Type: The type of moving average used (SMA or EMA). Default is SMA.
MA Length: The length of the moving average. Default is 5.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for mean-reverting markets and performs best when the price frequently oscillates around the moving average.
It is sensitive to the number of consecutive bars below the moving average, which helps to identify potential dips.
Backtesting results should be analysed to optimize the Consecutive Bars Threshold, MA Type, and MA Length for specific instruments.
Turn around Tuesday on Steroids Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Turn around Tuesday on Steroids Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential price reversals at the start of the trading week. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the price shows strength by exceeding the previous bar's high. This strategy is optimized for ETFs, stocks, and other instruments on the daily timeframe.
█ WHAT IS THE STARTING DAY?
The Starting Day determines the first day of the trading week for the strategy. It can be set to either Sunday or Monday, depending on the instrument being traded. For ETFs and stocks, Monday is recommended. For other instruments, Sunday is recommended.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The current day is the first day of the trading week (either Sunday or Monday, depending on the Starting Day setting).
The close price is lower than the previous day's close (`close < close `).
The previous day's close is also lower than the close two days ago (`close < close `).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
If the MA Filter is enabled, the close price must also be above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the current closing price exceeds the high of the previous bar (`close > high `). This indicates that the price has shown strength, potentially confirming the reversal and prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Starting Day: Determines the first day of the trading week. Options are Sunday or Monday. Default is Sunday.
Use MA Filter: Enables or disables the 200-period SMA filter for long entries. Default is disabled.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for markets with frequent weekly reversals.
It performs best in volatile conditions where price movements are significant at the start of the trading week.
Backtesting results should be analysed to optimize the Starting Day and MA Filter settings for specific instruments.
EMA SHIFT & PARALLEL [n_dot]BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P
This strategy was developed for CRYPTO FUTURES, (the settings for ETHUSDT.P) . I aimed for the strategy to function in a live environment, so I focused on making its operation realistic:
When determining the position, only 80% (adjustable) of the available cash is invested to reduce the risk of position liquidation.
I account for a 0.05% commission, typical on the futures market, for each entry and exit.
Concept:
I modified a simple, well-known method: the crossover of two exponential moving averages (FAST, SLOW) generates the entry and exit signals.
I enhanced the base idea as follows:
For the fast EMA, I incorporated a multiplier (offset) to filter out market noise and focus only on strong signals.
I use different EMAs for long and short entry points; both have their own FAST and SLOW EMAs and their own offset. For longs, the FAST EMA is adjusted downward (<1), while for shorts, it is adjusted upward (>1). Consequently, the signal is generated when the modified FAST EMA crosses the SLOW EMA.
Risk Management:
The position includes the following components:
Separate stop-losses for long and short positions.
Separate trailers for long and short positions.
The strategy operates so that the entry point is determined by the EMA crossover, while the exit is governed only by the Stop Loss or Trailer. Optionally, it can be set to close the position at the EMA recrossing ("Close at Signal").
Trailer Operation:
An entry percentage and offset are defined. The trailer activates when the price surpasses the entry price, calculated automatically by the system.
The trailer closes the position when the price drops by the offset percentage from the highest reached price.
Example for trailer:
Purchase Price = 100
Trailer Enter = 5% → Activation Price = 105 (triggers trailer if market price crosses it).
Trailer Offset = 2%
If the price rises to 110, the exit price becomes 107.8.
If the price goes to 120, the exit price becomes 117.6.
If the price falls below 117.6, the trailer closes the position.
Settings:
Source: Determines the market price reference.
End Close: Closes positions at the end of the simulation to avoid "shadow positions" and provide an objective result.
Lot proportional to free cash (%): Only a portion of free cash is invested to meet margin requirements.
Plot Short, Plot Long: Simplifies displayed information by toggling indicator lines on/off.
Long Position (toggleable):
EMA Fast ws: Window size for FAST EMA.
EMA Slow ws: Window size for SLOW EMA.
EMA Fast down shift: Adjustment factor for FAST EMA.
Stop Loss long (%): Percent drop to close the position.
Trailer enter (%): Percent above the purchase price to activate the trailer.
Trailer offset (%): Percent drop to close the position.
Short Position (toggleable):
EMA Fast ws: Window size for FAST EMA.
EMA Slow ws: Window size for SLOW EMA.
EMA Fast up shift: Adjustment factor for FAST EMA.
Stop Loss short (%): Percent rise to close the position.
Trailer enter (%): Percent below the purchase price to activate the trailer.
Trailer offset (%): Percent rise to close the position.
Operational Framework:
If in a long position and a short EMA crossover occurs, the strategy closes the long and opens a short (flip).
If in a short position and a long EMA crossover occurs, the strategy closes the short and opens a long (flip).
A position can close in three ways:
Stop Loss
Trailer
Signal Recrossing
If none are active, the position remains open until the end of the simulation.
Observations:
Shifts significantly deviating from 1 increase overfitting risk. Recommended ranges: 0.96–0.99 (long) and 1.01–1.05 (short).
The strategy's advantage lies in risk management, crucial in leveraged futures markets. It operates with relatively low DrawDown.
Recommendations:
Bullish Market: Higher entry threshold (e.g., 6%) and larger offset (e.g., 3%).
Volatile/Sideways Market: Tighter parameters (e.g., 3%, 1%).
The method is stable, and minor parameter adjustments do not significantly impact results, helping assess overfitting: if small changes lead to drastic differences, the strategy is over-optimized.
EMA Settings: Adjust FAST and SLOW EMAs based on the asset's volatility and cyclicality.
On the crypto market, especially in the Futures market, short time periods (1–15 minutes) often show significant noise, making patterns/repetitions hard to identify. I recommend setting the interval to at least 1 hour.
I hope this contributes to your success!
Mean Reversion V-FThis strategy workings on high volatile stock or crypto assets
It using 5 dynamic band's to get in the long position.
In same time depends on the band increases the units of the asset to get in the next position.
The unit's of the asset can be adjusted. Make sure to adjust the unit for different asset.
The bands are determined of main SMA.
There is no stop loss.
Take profit is trialing - HMA or % or average price + take profit - note if you use % trailing back test is not realistic but is working on real time.
Deviations can be adjust depends on the asset volatility.
EMA RSI Trend Reversal Ver.1Overview:
The EMA RSI Trend Reversal indicator combines the power of two well-known technical indicators—Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—to identify potential trend reversal points in the market. The strategy looks for key crossovers between the fast and slow EMAs, and uses the RSI to confirm the strength of the trend. This combination helps to avoid false signals during sideways market conditions.
How It Works:
Buy Signal:
The Fast EMA (9) crosses above the Slow EMA (21), indicating a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
The RSI is above 50, confirming strong bullish momentum.
Visual Signal: A green arrow below the price bar and a Buy label are plotted on the chart.
Sell Signal:
The Fast EMA (9) crosses below the Slow EMA (21), indicating a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend.
The RSI is below 50, confirming weak or bearish momentum.
Visual Signal: A red arrow above the price bar and a Sell label are plotted on the chart.
Key Features:
EMA Crossovers: The Fast EMA crossing above the Slow EMA signals potential buying opportunities, while the Fast EMA crossing below the Slow EMA signals potential selling opportunities.
RSI Confirmation: The RSI helps confirm trend strength—values above 50 indicate bullish momentum, while values below 50 indicate bearish momentum.
Visual Cues: The strategy uses green arrows and red arrows along with Buy and Sell labels for clear visual signals of when to enter or exit trades.
Signal Interpretation:
Green Arrow / Buy Label: The Fast EMA (9) has crossed above the Slow EMA (21), and the RSI is above 50. This is a signal to buy or enter a long position.
Red Arrow / Sell Label: The Fast EMA (9) has crossed below the Slow EMA (21), and the RSI is below 50. This is a signal to sell or exit the long position.
Strategy Settings:
Fast EMA Length: Set to 9 (this determines how sensitive the fast EMA is to recent price movements).
Slow EMA Length: Set to 21 (this smooths out price movements to identify the broader trend).
RSI Length: Set to 14 (default setting to track momentum strength).
RSI Level: Set to 50 (used to confirm the strength of the trend—above 50 for buy signals, below 50 for sell signals).
Risk Management (Optional):
Use take profit and stop loss based on your preferred risk-to-reward ratio. For example, you can set a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio (2x take profit for every 1x stop loss).
Backtesting and Optimization:
Backtest the strategy on TradingView by opening the Strategy Tester tab. This will allow you to see how the strategy would have performed on historical data.
Optimization: Adjust the EMA lengths, RSI period, and risk-to-reward settings based on your asset and time frame.
Limitations:
False Signals in Sideways Markets: Like any trend-following strategy, this indicator may generate false signals during periods of low volatility or sideways movement.
Not Suitable for All Market Conditions: This indicator performs best in trending markets. It may underperform in choppy or range-bound markets.
Strategy Example:
XRP/USD Example:
If you're trading XRP/USD and the Fast EMA (9) crosses above the Slow EMA (21), while the RSI is above 50, the indicator will signal a Buy.
Conversely, if the Fast EMA (9) crosses below the Slow EMA (21), and the RSI is below 50, the indicator will signal a Sell.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD):
On the BTC/USD chart, when the indicator shows a green arrow and a Buy label, it’s signaling a potential long entry. Similarly, a red arrow and Sell label indicate a short entry or exit from a previous long position.
Summary:
The EMA RSI Trend Reversal Indicator helps traders identify potential trend reversals with clear buy and sell signals based on the EMA crossovers and RSI confirmations. By using green arrows and red arrows, along with Buy and Sell labels, this strategy offers easy-to-understand visual signals for entering and exiting trades. Combine this with effective risk management and backtesting to optimize your trading performance.
linreg-gridbotLinreg-GridBot
>release note version 1<
Introduction
This script is a powerful trading strategy tool designed to help users identify market reversal points and make smarter trading decisions using grid thinking.
Background
Traditional grid/martingale strategies have several drawbacks: inefficient use of capital, premature grid boundaries, and trading at fixed intervals, all of which significantly reduce profitability. Since, there is not a gridbot can trail-stop at each level, stay close with the trend, and do better capital usage, tradalive has created this advanced gridbot to address these issues, and enhance the profitability.
How does it work?
Imagine plotting closes on a graph, where the x-axis represents the time-intervals and the y-axis represents the price. Linear regression would fit a straight line through these points that best represents the trend of the data.
In this script utilize the built-in to find consecutive slopes at each moment, and combine them to a smooth trend line. When turning point censored, an entry is placed right after the next bar. Then the gridbot starts working, the upper limit and lower limit is calculated by built-in , for example 3 ATRs above and under the entry price.
There is a 0.2 trailing stop for each step level. Also, when built-in VWMA is rising, this script uses built-in ROC to find the average change of lookback length, then move the grid upwards accordingly.
Size trading is crucial, in gridbot all-in when beginning the trade is risky, because turning point does not guarantee a reversal market upcoming. As a grid trader, we believe the price is relatively cheap near the lower limit, and the price is relatively expensive near the upper limit. Properly sized orders help prevent overexposure and reduce the potential for significant losses.
Features
Trend Detection: Utilizes linear regression to differentiate between upward and downward trends, displaying them as (orange) trend lines on the chart.
Signal Generation: Provides buy or sell signals at reversal points, helping users trade at optimal times.
Adjustable Parameters: Allows users to customize different indicator parameters to fit various trading strategies.
Backtested Device Parameters (see appendix)
Grid Parameters
🔃: Cyclic Trading
💰: Capital Turnover Ratio (Grid capital difference per level: 0.5 to 2)
⬆️ / ⬇️ Expected Number of Upward and Downward Grids.
The minimum number of grids is three: one level above and below the current price.
The maximum number of grids is seven: three levels above and below the current price.
🧭: Trade Signal: Controls the trading direction, long or short;
📏: Linear regression length value.
⏳⌛Backtest Period: Set the time range for users to analyze the performance of the strategy over different periods.
Analytic Toolbox (upper right corner) :
Usage Instructions
Add this script to your TradingView account.
Apply the script to your chart.
Adjust the parameters to fit your trading needs.
Make trading decisions based on the buy and sell signals.
Manually place orders on your trading platform using the parameters provided.
Enter grid parameters according to the highest and lowest prices.
Fill in the number of grid levels (the number of grids equals the number of upward grids plus the number of downward grids plus one).
Set stop-loss and take-profit values.
Alternatively, use a webhook to connect to your trading platform for automated trading.
Important Notes
This script currently only supports 4-hour and daily charts!
This script relies on historical data for calculations and may not be suitable for all market conditions.
Trading carries risks, so please use this script cautiously for trading decisions.
User has to update the backtest period, or else the strategy might not be seen.
Demostration
Phase one, the orange line is about to turn up.
Phase two, the reversal point is located, and right after the next bar start an entry of gridbot.
Phase Three, the gridbot operates, once level touches, then a 0.2ATR trailing stop is applied on each step.
Phase four, when vwma rises, the grid window follows it by the rate of change of lookback price. If vwma does not move up, then the grid boundaries remain.
Phase five, either side when the current price breaks through the white limits, the gridbot stops. And the trading strategy is done for this round.
TheHorsyAlgoPROThe Horsy algo is an automated strategy that uses any minute Higher timeframe range as reference and search for a purge of liquidity on the HTF high or low where buyside or sell side liquidity is, the algo only search this at specific desired times that can be configured according to the time you usually trade, the strategy is known as Turtle soup purge and reverse or lately as CRT.
Why is useful?
The purpose of this Algorithm is to help turtle soup traders to quickly identify when the market is likely to reverse the algo evaluates if the opportunity is worth it, base on risk reward and other desired filters. Also this strategy can help to quickly backtest the trader strategy it can be configured in different timeframes and adapt to the trader personality, they can easily see the results and statistics and notice if its profitable or not.
This algo is useful for intraday traders looking for a purge and reverse at a key times and at key HTF price levels this only looks the previous HTF highs and lows but is important to also monitor Order blocks, FVGs, gaps, or wicks to have the best results.
How it works and how it does it?
The Horsy algo simply Jumps from one type of liquidity to another one buyside to sell side or vice versa. In order for the algo to trigger an entry it has to meet these conditions
1. Take HTF liquidity, trade above a HTF high or below a HTF low in the selected time window
2. Make a change in the state of delivery with a close below the previous candle low for shorts and close above previous candle high for longs.
3. Allow for a reasonable risk reward, it will use the highest high for shorts and the lowest low for longs. The default take profit is the opposite side of the range.
4. Validate others user filters this include enter only trades aligned with the HTF bias, or trades aligned with the LTF bias or booth. The algo have the option to enter only premium and discount entries. And finally, an option to allow for different contract sizes depending of the maximum percent of the account we want to risk default is 1%. For this last option is important to check the initial balance and leverage are configured correctly, is disable by default because it requires more capital to perform well.
We can see the algo performing in the picture below with a short trade, notice there are some white lines, they are the high or the low of HTF candle that start generating inside candles in the HTF meaning a possible consolidation. The algo plots the HTF ranges in a shaded boxes as you can see below
The HTF bias as you can see in the picture is calculated based on the last close of the HTF meaning close above previous HTF high is bullish close below previous HTF low is bearish. This HTF bias level is also the last HTF mid-price or 50%. By default, this line is enabled.
The LTF bias is calculated based on the range created from the expansion outside the previous HTF range is also the mid-price. If the LTF close above previous HTF high is bullish and if the LTF close below previous HTF low is bearish. By default this LTF bias line is disable.
This strategy includes an original and personal developed code that uses dealing ranges to recognize if the market is expanding, retracing, reversing or consolidating. This allow the algo to exit the position when it detects a retracement or at the end of the expansion. This is the default exit type.
You can monitor the previous dealing ranges created in history with an option than can be enable, by default is disable, this ranges are created after price takes buyside and then sell side or vice versa. So this dealing ranges can be useful also to identify minor pools of liquidity and premium and discount in the lower timeframe.
The picture below is a long example, the exit in this case is just at the high of the range. The normal take profit is in a blue line for longs.
How to use it?
First select the desired HTF timeframe recommended is from 30min to 240min then you setup the chart on the lower timeframe you want to trade recommended is from 1min to 15min to enter. By default This strategy is designed to work for intraday during key times when price take stops and then moves quickly away from them. You can select as much as 6 different times or just one. After you select the desired time window where the algo will look for the purge and reverse, They are highlighted in the candles that change colors excluding the gray ones that indicates consolidation.
Then the Algo allow to performs several additional filters in the entries you can select if you want to trade only longs or shorts trades, you can select when to move the stop loss to Break even. In deviations of the risk or you can just select to remove risk when price hits the 50% of previous HTF range.
You can select the minimum desired risk reward of the trade before is allow to be taken. Once is configured correctly the algo should trigger signals with a triangle up or down plus the strategy entry.
At the beginning of the picture there are some blue lines in the HTF high low and close, this is to easily identify that the market is in the Asia session, the time can be configured by the user, these lines are normally gray.
On the right top of the screen you can see some statistics about the strategy how many trades it took, ARR is an approximated value of the accumulated total risk reward of all the trades when they get closed in the simulation.
Profit factor and percent profitable are also shown should be green it means that the strategy makes money over time. But apart from that is important to notice how it makes money it is stable over time? it is a roller coaster? that why I Include this other measurements MxcsTps is the maximum consecutives take profits and Mxcsls is the maximum consecutive stop losses it takes, the slash number after it is the consecutive Break evens. So this way you know what to expect and what is normal in the strategy.
The algo shows all the times the stop loss, take profit and break even level if enable in the colored red lines for short and blue lines for longs. You can also select how price will manage the profit or stoploss point meaning that you can choose to wait for the candle to close to invalidate your idea or to take profit. This is good to avoid liquidity sweeps but can also lead to mayor loses if the idea is wrong. The default setting is to close the trade when price takes the high or low where the stoploss is, the take profit is taken after a retracement to allow to profit on expansions. You can select also to exit on a reversal if you want to ride all the move. This last option has to be used with caution because sometimes price just retrace or reverse very fast decreasing the trade profit and overall strategy performance.
The algo have the option to use standard deviation from the normal risk if you prefer to prevent liquidity sweeps near the stop level this make wider stops but can lead to increased loses so it has to be used carefully.
Below is a picture that show the entry stop and take profit levels with an exit on a retracement activated.
Strategy Results
The backtesting results are obtained simulating a 2000usd account in the Micro Nasdaq using 1 contract per trade. Commission are set to 2usd per contract, slippage to 1tick. You can see in list of trades we are not risking more than 1 % percent of the account. The backtested range is from august to November 2024. This strategy doesn’t generate too much trades because of the time filters and conditions that has to be meet to take an entry but you can see the results of the last 4months with the available data that are around 32 trades.
The default settings for this strategy is HTF as 240min designed to work on a LTF 5min chart, the default purge times are 245-300, 745-800, 845-900, 1045-1100 and 1245-1300 UTC-4, the algo will look for shorts or longs, with a minimum risk reward of 2.0. With an additional filter of the HTFBias. The take profit is by default taken on the first retracement after hitting the target. The default settings are optimized to work on the Nasdaq or Spy, but can also perform well in other assets with the correct adjustments.
Remember entries constitute only a small component of a complete winning strategy. Other factors like risk management, position-sizing, trading frequency, trading fees, and many others must also be properly managed to achieve profitability. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. To really take advantage of this strategy you have to study turtle soup and the HTF key levels use this only as a confirmation that your overall idea will play out and use it to backtest your model.
Summary of features
·Adaptable strategy to different HTF timeframes from 1-1440min
· Select up to 6 different purge time windows UTC-4, UTC-5
· Choose desired Risk Reward per trade
· Easily see the HTF high low close and 50% key levels in the LTF
· Identify HTF consolidations that generate key major liquidity pools
· HTF/LTF bias filters to trade in favor of the big trend or in sync
· Shaded boxes that indicate if the market is bullish, bearish or consolidating
· See the current midpoint of the last expansion move
· Optimal trade entry filter to trade only in a discount or premium
· Customizable trade management take profit, stop, breakeven level
· Option to exit on a close, retracement or reversal after hitting the take profit level
· Option to exit on a close or reversal after hitting stop loss
· Configurable breakeven point with standard deviations or at 50% of the HTF
· Calculate different contract sizes depending of a percentage of the initial balance
· Standard deviations from normal risk can be used to prevent liquidity sweeps
· See dealing ranges history to check minor pools of liquidity and premium or discount
· Dashboard with instant statistics about the strategy current settings
Gold Friday Anomaly StrategyThis script implements the " Gold Friday Anomaly Strategy ," a well-known historical trading strategy that leverages the gold market's behavior from Thursday evening to Friday close. It is a backtesting-focused strategy designed to assess the historical performance of this pattern. Traders use this anomaly as it captures a recurring market tendency observed over the years.
What It Does:
Entry Condition: The strategy enters a long position at the beginning of the Friday trading session (Thursday evening close) within the defined backtesting period.
Exit Condition: Friday evening close.
Backtesting Controls: Allows users to set custom backtesting periods to evaluate strategy performance over specific date ranges.
Key Features:
Custom Backtest Periods: Easily configurable inputs to set the start and end date of the backtesting range.
Fixed Slippage and Commission Settings: Ensures realistic simulation of trading conditions.
Process Orders on Close: Backtesting is optimized by processing orders at the bar's close.
Important Notes:
Backtesting Only: This script is intended purely for backtesting purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Live Trading Recommendations: For live trading, it is highly recommended to use limit orders instead of market orders, especially during evening sessions, as market order slippage can be significant.
Default Settings:
Entry size: 10% of equity per trade.
Slippage: 1 tick.
Commission: 0.05% per trade.
30-Minute Candle Strategy30-Minute Candle Trading Strategy
This strategy works on a 30-minute candle timeframe. When a new 30-minute candle opens, the following actions will take place based on the previous 30-minute candle's closing price:
Buy Trade Setup:
If the market opens above the previous 30-minute candle's closing price, a buy trade will be executed immediately at the market price.
The stop-loss will be set at the previous 30-minute candle's closing price.
There will be no fixed target.
The trade will be closed 1 minute before the current 30-minute candle closes, regardless of profit or loss.
Sell Trade Setup:
If a buy trade hits the stop-loss and the market moves below the previous 30-minute candle's closing price, a sell trade will be executed immediately at the market price.
The stop-loss for the sell trade will also be set at the previous 30-minute candle's closing price.
There will be no fixed target.
The trade will be closed 1 minute before the current 30-minute candle closes, regardless of profit or loss.
Procedure:
This process will repeat for every 30-minute candle.
If the market crosses the previous 30-minute candle's closing price to the upside, a buy trade will be executed, and the stop-loss will be set at the previous candle's closing price.
If the market crosses the previous 30-minute candle's closing price to the downside, a sell trade will be executed, and the stop-loss will also be set at the previous candle's closing price.
Each trade will be closed 1 minute before the current candle closes.
Key Points:
This strategy applies to every new 30-minute candle.
The stop-loss will always be based on the previous 30-minute candle's closing price.
If a stop-loss is hit, the strategy will automatically switch to the opposite trade (buy to sell or sell to buy) based on market movement crossing the previous candle's closing price.
This is a repetitive and systematic approach to trading, ensuring the rules are followed for every 30-minute candle.
NUTJP CDC ActionZone 20241. Core Components of the Strategy
• Fast EMA and Slow EMA:
• The Fast EMA (shorter period) is more reactive to recent price changes.
• The Slow EMA (longer period) reacts slower and provides a smoother view of the overall trend.
• Relationship Between Fast EMA and Slow EMA:
• When the Fast EMA is above the Slow EMA, the market is considered Bullish.
• When the Fast EMA is below the Slow EMA, the market is considered Bearish.
2. Zones Based on Price and EMAs
The strategy defines six zones based on the position of the price, Fast EMA, and Slow EMA:
1. Green Zone (Buy):
• Bullish trend (Fast EMA > Slow EMA)
• Price is above the Fast EMA.
• Indicates a strong uptrend and suggests buying.
2. Blue and Light Blue Zones (Pre-Buy):
• Price is above the Fast EMA but below or near the Slow EMA.
• Represents potential bullish signals but not strong enough to trigger a buy.
3. Red Zone (Sell):
• Bearish trend (Fast EMA < Slow EMA)
• Price is below the Fast EMA.
• Indicates a strong downtrend and suggests selling or avoiding long trades.
4. Orange and Yellow Zones (Pre-Sell):
• Price is below the Fast EMA but above or near the Slow EMA.
• Represents potential bearish signals but not strong enough to trigger a sell.
These zones help traders visualize the market conditions and determine whether to buy, hold, or sell.
3. Buy and Sell Conditions
• Buy Condition:
A buy signal is triggered when:
• The price enters the Green Zone (Bullish trend and price > Fast EMA).
• It’s the first green candle after a non-green candle.
• Sell Condition:
A sell signal is triggered when:
• The price enters the Red Zone (Bearish trend and price < Fast EMA).
• It’s the first red candle after a non-red candle.
4. Trade Execution Logic
• Buy:
The strategy enters a long position (buy) when the above buy condition is met.
• Sell:
The strategy exits the long position when the sell condition is met.
Note: It doesn’t support short trades, meaning it doesn’t enter sell positions.
5. Momentum-Based Signals (Optional)
The indicator also includes momentum signals using Stochastic RSI to provide additional buy/sell signals:
• These are based on oversold and overbought levels of the Stochastic RSI.
• It filters signals depending on whether the trend is Bullish or Bearish.
6. Visual Features
The indicator is designed to make the trading zones and signals visually intuitive:
• Bar Colors:
Candlesticks are colored based on the current zone (e.g., Green for Buy, Red for Sell).
• EMA Lines:
The Fast EMA and Slow EMA are plotted, making it easy to see crossover points.
• Buy/Sell Signals:
Marked with shapes (e.g., circles) below/above bars for clarity.
7. Strategy Assumptions
• Trend-Following Nature:
This strategy assumes that trends persist. It works best in trending markets but might give false signals in ranging markets.
• Lagging Nature of EMAs:
As EMAs are lagging indicators, buy and sell signals may occur after significant moves have already begun or ended.
• Momentum Confirmation (Optional):
Adding momentum signals can help filter false signals, though it’s not part of the core logic.
8. Usage Recommendations
• Timeframes:
Works on various timeframes but may perform better on higher timeframes (e.g., 1H, Daily) to reduce noise.
• Markets:
Can be applied to stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies.
• Backtesting and Optimization:
Before live trading, backtest the strategy with different EMA periods and other parameters to find optimal settings for your market and timeframe.
US 30 Daily Breakout Strategy The US 30 Daily Breakout Strategy (Single Trade Per Breakout/Breakdown) is a trading approach for the US 30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) that aims to capture breakout or breakdown moves based on the previous day’s high and low levels. The strategy includes mechanisms to take only one trade per breakout (or breakdown) each day and ensures that each trade is executed only when no other trade is open.
Entry Conditions:
Long Trade (Breakout): The strategy initiates a long position if the current candle closes above the previous day's high, indicating an upward breakout. Only one breakout trade can occur per day, regardless of whether the price remains above the previous high.
Short Trade (Breakdown): The strategy initiates a short position if the current candle closes below the previous day's low, indicating a downward breakdown. Similarly, only one breakdown trade can occur per day.
Risk Management:
Take Profit and Stop Loss: Each trade has a take profit and stop loss of 50 points, aiming to cap profit and limit loss effectively for each position.
Daily Reset Mechanism:
At the start of each new day (based on New York time), the strategy resets its flags, allowing it to look for new breakout or breakdown trades. This reset ensures that only one trade can be taken per breakout or breakdown level each day.
Execution Logic
Flags for Trade Limitation: Flags (breakout_traded and breakdown_traded) are used to ensure only one breakout or breakdown trade is taken per day. These flags reset daily.
Dynamic Plotting: The previous day’s high and low are plotted on the chart, providing a visual reference for potential breakout or breakdown levels.
Overall Objective
This strategy is designed to capture single-directional daily moves by identifying significant breakouts or breakdowns beyond the previous day’s range. The fixed profit and loss limits ensure the trades are managed with controlled risk, while the daily reset feature prevents overtrading and limits each trade opportunity to one breakout and one breakdown attempt per day.
S&P 100 Option Expiration Week StrategyThe Option Expiration Week Strategy aims to capitalize on increased volatility and trading volume that often occur during the week leading up to the expiration of options on stocks in the S&P 100 index. This period, known as the option expiration week, culminates on the third Friday of each month when stock options typically expire in the U.S. During this week, investors in this strategy take a long position in S&P 100 stocks or an equivalent ETF from the Monday preceding the third Friday, holding until Friday. The strategy capitalizes on potential upward price pressures caused by increased option-related trading activity, rebalancing, and hedging practices.
The phenomenon leveraged by this strategy is well-documented in finance literature. Studies demonstrate that options expiration dates have a significant impact on stock returns, trading volume, and volatility. This effect is driven by various market dynamics, including portfolio rebalancing, delta hedging by option market makers, and the unwinding of positions by institutional investors (Stoll & Whaley, 1987; Ni, Pearson, & Poteshman, 2005). These market activities intensify near option expiration, causing price adjustments that may create short-term profitable opportunities for those aware of these patterns (Roll, Schwartz, & Subrahmanyam, 2009).
The paper by Johnson and So (2013), Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks, provides empirical evidence supporting this strategy. The study analyzes the impact of option expiration on S&P 100 stocks, showing that these stocks tend to exhibit abnormal returns and increased volume during the expiration week. The authors attribute these patterns to intensified option trading activity, where demand for hedging and arbitrage around options expiration causes temporary price adjustments.
Scientific Explanation
Research has found that option expiration weeks are marked by predictable increases in stock returns and volatility, largely due to the role of options market makers and institutional investors. Option market makers often use delta hedging to manage exposure, which requires frequent buying or selling of the underlying stock to maintain a hedged position. As expiration approaches, their activity can amplify price fluctuations. Additionally, institutional investors often roll over or unwind positions during expiration weeks, creating further demand for underlying stocks (Stoll & Whaley, 1987). This increased demand around expiration week typically leads to temporary stock price increases, offering profitable opportunities for short-term strategies.
Key Research and Bibliography
Johnson, T. C., & So, E. C. (2013). Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(11), 4226-4240.
This study specifically examines the S&P 100 stocks and demonstrates that option expiration weeks are associated with abnormal returns and trading volume due to increased activity in the options market.
Stoll, H. R., & Whaley, R. E. (1987). Program Trading and Expiration-Day Effects. Financial Analysts Journal, 43(2), 16-28.
Stoll and Whaley analyze how program trading and portfolio insurance strategies around expiration days impact stock prices, leading to temporary volatility and increased trading volume.
Ni, S. X., Pearson, N. D., & Poteshman, A. M. (2005). Stock Price Clustering on Option Expiration Dates. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(1), 49-87.
This paper investigates how option expiration dates affect stock price clustering and volume, driven by delta hedging and other option-related trading activities.
Roll, R., Schwartz, E., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2009). Options Trading Activity and Firm Valuation. Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 519-534.
The authors explore how options trading activity influences firm valuation, finding that higher options volume around expiration dates can lead to temporary price movements in underlying stocks.
Cao, C., & Wei, J. (2010). Option Market Liquidity and Stock Return Volatility. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(2), 481-507.
This study examines the relationship between options market liquidity and stock return volatility, finding that increased liquidity needs during expiration weeks can heighten volatility, impacting stock returns.
Summary
The Option Expiration Week Strategy utilizes well-researched financial market phenomena related to option expiration. By positioning long in S&P 100 stocks or ETFs during this period, traders can potentially capture abnormal returns driven by option market dynamics. The literature suggests that options-related activities—such as delta hedging, position rollovers, and portfolio adjustments—intensify demand for underlying assets, creating short-term profit opportunities around these key dates.
