Macro Regime: Market mood + Regime detector1. The Core Idea
When investors feel confident, they buy high-beta stocks.
When they feel nervous, they hide in low-volatility stocks.
Everything in this indicator is just measuring that preference, then checking whether fear is rising fast enough to matter.
2. The Engine: SPHB / SPLV
What these ETFs represent
SPHB = high-beta stocks (move more than the market)
SPLV = low-volatility stocks (move less than the market)
What the ratio means
SPHB / SPLV rising → investors prefer risk
SPHB / SPLV falling → investors prefer safety
This ratio is your risk appetite heartbeat.
3. Trend Filters (Separating Noise from Regimes)
The moving averages
Fast MA (50) → short-term risk momentum
Slow MA (200) → long-term risk regime
How they’re used
Ratio above the 200 MA → risk-on environment
Ratio below the 200 MA → risk-off environment
Fast MA crossing slow MA → regime transition
This avoids reacting to every wiggle.
4. RSI: Detecting Overconfidence & Exhaustion
Why RSI is applied to the ratio
You’re not asking “are stocks overbought?”
You’re asking: “Is risk preference itself becoming stretched?”
Interpretation
RSI > 70 → investors are crowding into risk
Lower RSI highs while ratio makes higher highs → enthusiasm is fading (classic late-cycle behavior)
RSI < 30 → panic / forced de-risking
RSI helps separate:
Healthy expansion from Speculative euphoria
5. Stress Filter: Volatility (VIX or VIXY/SPY)
Why this matters
Risk can fall in two very different ways:
Orderly slowdown (volatility stays calm)
Crisis (volatility explodes)
The stress filter answers: “Is fear becoming systemic?”
How it’s measured
Either TVC:VIX , or VIXY / SPY (volatility vs equities)
Converted into a Z-score so spikes stand out clearly.
Interpretation
Low stress → normal market functioning
High stress → forced selling, margin calls, policy response territory
6. Credit & Breadth (Confirmation, Not Drivers)
These don’t create signals — they confirm them.
Credit: HYG / TLT
Junk bonds vs Treasuries
Falling → credit risk rising (often leads equities)
Breadth: RSP / SPY
Equal-weight vs cap-weight
Falling → narrowing leadership, fragile market
If high beta weakens + credit & breadth roll, regime shifts are far more reliable.
7. The Four Regimes (This Is the Payoff)
🟢 Early Expansion
What’s happening:
Investors steadily increase risk
Credit and breadth cooperate
Volatility stays muted
On the chart
SPHB/SPLV above 200 MA
RSI rising but < 70
Green background
How to think: “Risk is being rewarded.”
🟡 Late Cycle / Euphoria
What’s happening
Everyone already owns risk
Momentum slows under the surface
Complacency is high
On the chart
Ratio still rising
RSI > 70 or divergence
Orange background
How to think: “Upside exists, but fragility is building.”
🟠 Slowdown
What’s happening
Investors quietly reduce exposure
No panic yet
Often policy-sensitive phase
On the chart
Ratio below fast MA
Still above or near slow MA
Stress remains low
Yellow background
How to think: “Protect gains, reduce beta.”
🔴 Crisis
What’s happening
Forced de-risking
Liquidity stress
Correlations go to 1
On the chart
SPHB/SPLV collapses below 200 MA
RSI < 30
Stress Z-score spikes
Red background
How to think: “Capital preservation > return.”
8. Binary Mode: Risk-ON vs Risk-OFF
The script also simplifies everything into a single switch:
Risk-ON
High beta trending up
Confirmations OK
Stress contained
Risk-OFF
High beta trending down
Stress elevated
This is what you’d use for:
Position sizing
Exposure limits
Asset rotation
Indicatore Pine Script®






















