SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com
Best,
JM
Ratio
[kai]Futility RatioAn indicator that measures movement inefficiency
Inefficient movement, that is, the range market becomes a high number, the limit is reached at about 60 and a trend occurs
When the range breaks and a trend occurs, the inefficiency drops to about 40 and many trends end.
The full-scale trend goes down further and goes down to about 25, which is evaluated as an efficient movement, the limit is reached and the trend ends.
As for how to use this Inge, the direction of the trend needs to be considered in other ways.
Create a position when you reach 60
Position closed or contrarian at 40 or 25
I assume the usage
動きの非効率性を測定するインジケーターです
非効率な動きをするつまりレンジ相場は高い数字になって、60程度で限界が訪れてトレンドが発生します
レンジがブレイクしトレンドが発生すると40程度まで非効率性は下がりって多くのトレンドは終了します
本格的なトレンドはさらに下がっていって効率的な動きと評価される25程度まで下がって限界が訪れてトレンドが終了します
このインジの使い方はトレンドの方向は他の方法で考える必要がありますが
60まで上がったときにポジション作成
40又は25でポジションクローズ又は逆張り
という使い方を想定しています
Distance from the ATH priceThis indicator shows us the distance (in %) between the current price and the ATH price.
The closer the price is to the ATH the higher the percentage.
100% means we reached the ATH price.
HOW TO USE:
No special input necessary.
Markets:
It can be used to all markets.
NOTE:
Some Exchanges don't go very far back in the past and for this reason this may have impact on this Indicator.
Stock Value Display//This study is designed to plot estimates for a stock's value:
//1) the Price to earnings ratio (PE) value based on the trailing twelve months of data
//2) the PE value based future data
//3) the Benjamin Graham value based trailing data
//4) the Dividend Discount value based on trailing data
You can adjust the period of data used to calculate the value between Fiscal Quarter "FQ" and Fiscal Year "FY."
The values displayed on the chart are subject to the financial information provided to TradingView. This is intended to be used as a quick reference and should be viewed in context with other analysis prior to making any transaction decisions.
As always, happy trading!
P1 FundamentalsP1 is because to me, this is a priority 1 indicator, so I have P1 and P2 indicators ordered on the favorite list.
What can you check on the selection pane?
On “period”, you can show the data related to:
the fiscal quarters
or the fiscal years.
You can select a pack of financial data that I have organized in sections:
Revenue & earnings
EPS & DPS (EPS, EPS estimate, DPS and dividend payout ratio )
Debt (total debt, total equity and cash & equivalents)
Returns (ROE, ROIC, ROA and R&D revenue to ratio)
I recommend to just select one of them, in other case the chart is a mess.
Any feedback on the code is welcome!!
GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin pricePlots the GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin price at the close. It also includes the annual management fee (2% at the moment). It accrues on a daily, weekly or monthly basis depending on the chart resolution. (intraday not supported) The amount of bitcoin per gbtc share and the annual fee may be changed by Grayscale in the future. Those values can be easily update in the script settings.
Precious Metal RatiosThis is a script that shows the ratios of precious metals, including Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Copper, Aluminum, and Steel.
You can choose your desired base currency and quote currency. The default ratio is Gold/Silver, where Gold is the base currency and Silver is the quote.
To use, just select your current timeframe from the menu.
Includes an option for repainting -- default value is true, meaning the script will repaint the current bar.
False = Not Repainting = Value for the current bar is not repainted, but all past values are offset by 1 bar.
True = Repainting = Value for the current bar is repainted, but all past values are correct and not offset by 1 bar.
In both cases, all of the historical values are correct, it is just a matter of whether you prefer the current bar to be realistically painted and the historical bars offset by 1, or the current bar to be repainted and the historical data to match their respective price bars.
As explained by TradingView,`f_security()` is for coders who want to offer their users a repainting/no-repainting version of the HTF data.
FAIR P/E BASED ON INTEREST RATESJust a different way to view S&P 500 valuations versus the standard look of looking at raw PE. Current yield of the 10 Year Bonds are used to calculate a fair value for the SPX.
This is a methodology that Buffett uses to measure value.
Recommend turning off most plots and just plotting PE and/or PE10 percent difference only.
The "slope and intercept" inputs should be left alone unless you recalculate them with updated data.
The "current PE and PE10" inputs can be found here: www.multpl.com This is a daily estimated value.
The full calculated value is released once per month, and is what Quandl has. Change these numbers if you want today's updated values.
Once you have the study set up the way you want, I recommend saving the defaults (bottom left corner in the settings screen).
Mayer MultipleThe script implements a custom version of the Mayer multiple and it may be useful for analyzing the price of Bitcoin in a historical context.
Note n.1: Mayer multiple does not tell whether to buy, sell or hold, but highlights the best long-term area when the bitcoin price is below a threshold value (2.4).
Note n.2: the threshold value (2.4) has been determined in the past by simulations performed.
The script user may decide whether to use the shown graph or another graph for the calculation of the Mayer multiple.
The script is very easy to use and it is possible to change the following parameters:
the period of SMA (default value is 200)
the threshold (default value 2.4)
Show or not the sell area
Use or not the shown graph to calculate the Mayer multiple (default value is true)
name of exchange to use for calculation of the Mayer multiple (default value is BNC)
name of chart to use for calculation of the Mayer multiple (default value is BLX)
Rise from All Time LowThis very simple script lets you see how much the asset rose from the All Time Low (ATL).
First, the ATL is calculated and plotted. Then, we measure the distance from ATL and current bar close.
Two labels are plotted :
ATL label
Current close label with rise and rise
It can be useful for penny stocks trading when you want to buy lows but must see how much the price rose last bars to improve entries.
For example, SQBG is actually "only" at x 1.85 from ATL (not an advice in investment) :
If you have ideas to complete or improve this script, let me know in comments ;)
Ratio Between Two SymbolsThis scripts displays the ratio of any two symbols. The ratio is shown on a second chart.
A multiplier may be added to the ratio, and moving average is calculated.
Position CalculatorThis script calculates how much cryptos or dollars you have to bet with 4 variables : Risk Loss , Leverage, Entry and Stop Loss.
When you want to open a position, just complete the parameters and the script will tell you how much you have to bet in dollars or cryptos units, depending the way you're trading.
Note : don't foreget that you have to pay fees on exchanges whose are not included here, specially with high leverage trades.
Fast ROI checker 50% Gann RetracementThis script is based on the Gann's 50% Retracement rule.
First, the ATH (All Time High) and ATL (All Time Low) are calculated; then, the 50% retracement level is found.
With this 50% level, we'll calculate the maximum price entry to keep a ROI which is set in the parameters.
For exemple, I only want to buy assets which can make a x16 before the 50% retracement , the script will calculate the maximum entry to respect this ROI .
If the Max entry price is above the ATL , the line will be green; if not, the line will be red.
To faster the search in the watchlist, when the price is between the Max Entry line and the ATL line, the background is painted in green.
It's not an investment strategy, you have to find your proper indicators to make purchases.
Enjoy !
Graham FormulaThis is an Tradingview implementation of the Grahams Formula as described in Benjamin Grahams book "The Intelligent Investor".
In theory this can be used to screen for over- and undervalued stocks, however as Graham himself notes, you should look into other fundamentals when using them in conjunction with Grahams formula.
Buy Any Bar By ChenycoBuys amount of shares by bars with specified amount of money (100$ for a month bar for example).
Including commissions.
Ehlers Enhanced Signal To Noise Ratio [CC]The Enhanced Signal To Noise Ratio was created by John Ehlers (Rocket Science For Traders pgs 87-88) and this is my favorite Ehlers Signal To Noise Ratio indicator. Scalpers like to use this indicator because when it is above the dotted line then the stock is trending and not trading sideways. Buy when the indicator line is green and sell when it is red.
Let me know when you want to see me publish other indicators or if you want something custom done!
LotSizeCalc_v1 (EUR)Hey there,
here I like to publish my first TradingView Script for the Indicator "LotSizeCalc" which calculates the LotSize for the currency '€' for e.g. the MT4-App depending on the following parameters:
- Stop Loss in pips (example: 30 pips)
- Account Balance in EUR (example: 500€)
- Risk in % (example: 1%)
It is very similar to the MyFxBook Calculator on their website, where you can compare the results for the lotsize.
You receive the calculated value next to the indicator, and - for mobile device - it also shows a label with the calculated lotsize (which you can deacivate via settings if you like).
The indicator works for the included common foreign Forex pairs (AUD, CAD, CHF, JPY, JPY, GBP, NZD, USD) in order to calculate the risk to a EUR-Trading Account.
Actually, the Script allows in general some adaptations due to your trading system. This one is the most basic version.
Happy pips and I wish you safe and risk-calculated trading!
Marcel :)
PEG RatioHello everyone,
Quick script to check the PEG Ratio.
What is PEG Ratio?
The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG Ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. The PEG ratio is used to determine a stock's value while also factoring in the company's expected earnings growth, and is thought to provide a more complete picture than the more standard P/E ratio.
A PEG Ratio greater than 1.0 means that the stock is overvalued, while below 1.0 means is is undervalued. When the PEG Ratio is exactly 1.0, then the stock is trading at fair valuation.
Formula:
PEG Ratio = (Price / EPS) / EPS Growth
Examples:
Company A:
Price per share = $46
EPS this year = $2.09
EPS last year = $1.74
Company B
Price per share = $80
EPS this year = $2.67
EPS last year = $1.78
Company A
P/E ratio = $46 / $2.09 = 22
Earnings growth rate = ($2.09 / $1.74) - 1 = 20%
PEG ratio = 22 / 20 = 1.1
Company B
P/E ratio = $80 / $2.67 = 30
Earnings growth rate = ($2.67 / $1.78) - 1 = 50%
PEG ratio = 30 / 50 = 0.6
The company A is overvalued whiled the B is undervalued.
In this script an overvalued stock is considered when the PEG Ratio is above 1.1, while it is 0.9 for an undervalued stock.
Only works with Stocks.
Happy trading,
Gold-Stocks RatioA historic risk-off flag.
When the Gold-Stocks Ratio is above the 200 week moving average, investors may fair better holding gold and avoiding equities, as was the case for the last 20 years.
Binance BTC ALT Ratio Difference [BigBitsIO]This was a follower suggested script. This script compares the USDT and BTC relative prices of a particular altcoin traded on Binance by calculating it's USDT price comparative to BTC. This is a very simple calculation (ALT/USDT price divided by ALT/BTC price). From there, we simply subtract the BTC/USDT price from the ALT ration price and we can see if a coin is trading comparatively high or low compared to it's BTC relative price.
This indicator may or may not be useful for you. However, for the purposes of my development series for indicators, I have published it to highlight the ability to concatenate strings to manipulate securities.
Features:
- Dropdown to choose from several built-in altcoin selections.
- Dropdown to choose to show a USDT base difference in the ratio, or a percentage based difference (might be useful for considering fees).
- Dropdown to choose the resolution of the indicator.
- Checkbox to toggle the option to use a custom altcoin.
- Text input to allow entry of a custom altcoin from Binance. Please only use the prefix on its trading pair vs. BTC. I cannot guarantee this will work with all altcoins. They must be traded vs. USDT and BTC on Binance.
- Concatenated strings to manipulate selected securities.
*** DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB. ***
Bitcoin Halving CountdownHello traders,
I offer you today the BTC halving countdown updated in real-time on your charts
I inspired myself greatly from the gentleman @everget's script LTC halving countdown below
(
The countdown date is coming from that source www.bitcoinblockhalf.com.
The halving date is estimated to be around May 13th, 2020 .
That date is hardcoded in the script and is used for the countdown calculation.
The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.
Enjoy the weekend
Dave
