Stochastic [Paifc0de]Stochastic — clean stochastic oscillator with visual masking, neutral markers, and basic filters
What it does
This indicator plots a standard stochastic oscillator (%K with smoothing and %D) and adds practical quality-of-life features for lower timeframes: optional visual masking when %K hugs overbought/oversold, neutral K–D cross markers, session-gated edge triangles (K crossing 20/80), and simple filters (minimum %K slope, minimum |K–D| gap, optional %D slope agreement, mid-zone mute, and a cooldown between markers). Display values are clamped to 0–100 to keep the panel scale stable. The tool is for research/education and does not generate entries/exits or financial advice.
Default preset: 20 / 10 / 10
K Length = 20
Classic lookback used in many textbooks. On intraday charts it balances responsiveness and stability: short enough to react to momentum shifts, long enough to avoid constant whipsaws. In practice it captures ~the last 20 bars’ position of close within the high–low range.
K Smoothing = 10
A 10-period SMA applied to the raw %K moderates the “saw-tooth” effect that raw stochastic can exhibit in choppy phases. The smoothing reduces over-reaction to micro spikes while preserving the main rhythm of swings; visually, %K becomes a continuous path that is easier to read.
D Length = 10
%D is the moving average of smoothed %K. With 10, %D becomes a clearly slower guide line. The larger separation between %K(10-SMA) and %D(10-SMA of %K) produces cleaner crosses and fewer spurious toggles than micro settings (e.g., 3/3/3). On M5–M15 this pair often yields readable cross cycles without flooding the chart.
How the 20/10/10 trio behaves
In persistent trends, %K will spend more time near 20 or 80; the 10-period smoothing delays flips slightly and emphasizes only meaningful turn attempts.
In ranges, %K oscillates around mid-zone (40–60). With 10/10 smoothing, cross signals cluster less densely; combining with the |K–D| gap filter helps keep only decisive crosses.
If your symbol is unusually volatile or illiquid, reduce K Length (e.g., 14) or reduce K Smoothing (e.g., 7) to keep responsiveness. If crosses feel late, decrease D Length (e.g., 7). If noise is excessive, increase K Smoothing first, then consider raising D Length.
Visuals
OB/OS lines: default 80/20 reference levels and a midline at 50.
Masking near edges: %K can be temporarily hidden when it is pressing an edge, approaching it with low slope, or going nearly flat near the boundary. This keeps the panel readable during “stuck at the edge” phases.
Soft glow (optional): highlights %K’s active path; can be turned off.
Light/Dark palette: quick toggle to match your chart theme.
Scale safety: all plotted values (lines, fills, markers) are clamped to 0–100 to prevent the axis from expanding beyond the stochastic range.
Markers and filters
Neutral K–D cross markers: circles in the mid-zone when %K crosses %D.
Edge triangles: show when %K crosses 20 or 80; can be restricted to a session window (02:00–12:00 ET).
Filters (optional):
Min %K slope: require a minimum absolute slope so very flat crosses are ignored.
Min |K–D| gap: demand separation between lines at the cross moment.
%D slope agreement: keep crosses that align with %D’s direction.
Mid-zone mute: suppress crosses inside a user-defined 40–60 band (defaults).
Cooldown: minimum bars between successive markers.
Parameters (quick guide)
K Length / K Smoothing / D Length: core stochastic settings. Start with 20/10/10; tune K Smoothing first if you see too much jitter.
Overbought / Oversold (80/20): adjust for assets that tend to trend (raise to 85/15) or mean-revert (lower to 75/25).
Slope & gap filters: increase on very noisy symbols; reduce if you miss too many crosses.
Session window (triangles only): use if you want edge markers only during active hours.
Marker size and offset: cosmetic; they do not affect calculations.
Alerts
K–D Cross Up (filtered) and K–D Cross Down (filtered): fire when a cross passes your filters/cooldown.
Edge Up / Edge Down: fire when %K crosses the 20/80 levels.
All alerts confirm on bar close.
Notes & attribution
Original implementation and integration by Paifc0de; no third-party code is copied.
This indicator is for research/education and does not provide entries/exits or financial advice.
Cerca negli script per "机械革命无界15+时不时闪屏"
M5 Session Rectangles (GMT+2) - Last 30 Sessions Rectangles on the M5 timeframe showing the MAX and MIN of the New York Session:
OPEN SESSION (15:30 - 16:20)
MID SESSION (16:20 - 19:00)
POWER HOUR (19:00 - 22:00)
The indicator tracks the last 30 days, and the rectangle for the current day is drawn only after the respective session closes.
Initial Balance SMC-V3
Initial Balance SMC-V3 – An Advanced Mean Reversion Indicator for Index Markets
The Initial Balance SMC-V3 indicator is the result of continuous refinement in mean reversion trading, with a specific focus on index markets (such as DAX, NASDAQ, S&P 500, etc.). Designed for high-liquidity environments with controlled volatility, it excels at precisely identifying value zones and statistical reversal points within market structure.
🔁 Mean Reversion at Its Core
At the heart of this indicator lies a robust mean reversion logic: rather than chasing extreme breakouts, it seeks returns toward equilibrium levels after impulsive moves. This makes it especially effective in ranging markets or corrective phases within broader trends—situations where many traders get caught in false breakouts.
🎯 Signals Require Breakout + Confirmation
Signals are never generated impulsively. Instead, they require a clear sequence of confirmations:
Break of a key level (e.g., Initial Balance high/low or an SMC zone);
Price re-entry into the range accompanied by a crossover of customizable moving averages (SMA, EMA, HULL, TEMA, etc.);
RSI filter to avoid entries in overbought/oversold extremes;
Volatility filter (ATR) to skip low-volatility, choppy conditions.
This multi-layered approach drastically reduces false signals and significantly improves trade quality.
📊 Built-in Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The indicator features native multi-timeframe logic:
H1 / 15-minute charts: for structural analysis and identification of Supply & Demand zones (SMC);
M1 / M5 charts: for precise trade execution, with targeted entries and dynamic risk management.
SMC zones are calculated on higher timeframes (e.g., 4H) to ensure structural reliability, while actual trade signals trigger on lower timeframes for maximum precision.
⚙️ Advanced Customization
Full choice of moving average type (SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, VWMA, HULL, TEMA, ZLEMA, etc.);
Revenge Trading logic: after a stop loss is hit without reaching the 1:1 breakeven level, the indicator automatically prepares for a counter-trade;
Dynamic ATR-based stop loss with customizable multiplier;
Session filters to trade only during optimal liquidity windows (e.g., European session).
🧠 Who Is It For?
This indicator is ideal for traders who:
Primarily trade indices;
Prefer mean reversion strategies over pure trend-following;
Seek a disciplined, rule-based system with multiple confluence filters;
Use a multi-timeframe approach to separate analysis from execution.
In short: Initial Balance SMC-V3 is more than just an indicator—it’s a complete trading framework for mean reversion on index markets, where every signal emerges from a confluence of statistical, structural, and temporal factors.
Happy trading! 📈
Opening Range IndicatorComplete Trading Guide: Opening Range Breakout Strategy
What Are Opening Ranges?
Opening ranges capture the high and low prices during the first few minutes of market open. These levels often act as key support and resistance throughout the trading day because:
Heavy volume occurs at market open as overnight orders execute
Institutional activity is concentrated during opening minutes
Price discovery happens as market participants react to overnight news
Psychological levels are established that traders watch all day
Understanding the Three Timeframes
OR5 (5-Minute Range: 9:30-9:35 AM)
Most sensitive - captures immediate market reaction
Quick signals but higher false breakout rate
Best for scalping and momentum trading
Use for early entry when conviction is high
OR15 (15-Minute Range: 9:30-9:45 AM)
Balanced approach - most popular among day traders
Moderate sensitivity with better reliability
Good for swing trades lasting several hours
Primary timeframe for most strategies
OR30 (30-Minute Range: 9:30-10:00 AM)
Most reliable but slower signals
Lower false breakout rate
Best for position trades and trend following
Use when looking for major moves
Core Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Basic Breakout
Setup:
Wait for price to break above OR15 high or below OR15 low
Enter on the breakout candle close
Stop loss: Opposite side of the range
Target: 2-3x the range size
Example:
OR15 range: $100.00 - $102.00 (Range = $2.00)
Long entry: Break above $102.00
Stop loss: $99.50 (below OR15 low)
Target: $104.00+ (2x range size)
Strategy 2: Multiple Confirmation
Setup:
Wait for OR5 break first (early signal)
Confirm with OR15 break in same direction
Enter on OR15 confirmation
Stop: Below OR30 if available, or OR15 opposite level
Why it works:
Multiple timeframe confirmation reduces false signals and increases probability of sustained moves.
Strategy 3: Failed Breakout Reversal
Setup:
Price breaks OR15 level but fails to hold
Wait for re-entry into the range
Enter reversal trade toward opposite OR level
Stop: Recent breakout high/low
Target: Opposite side of range + extension
Key insight: Failed breakouts often lead to strong moves in the opposite direction.
Advanced Techniques
Range Quality Assessment
High-Quality Ranges (Trade these):
Range size: 0.5% - 2% of stock price
Clean boundaries (not choppy)
Volume spike during range formation
Clear rejection at range levels
Low-Quality Ranges (Avoid these):
Very narrow ranges (<0.3% of stock price)
Extremely wide ranges (>3% of stock price)
Choppy, overlapping candles
Low volume during formation
Volume Confirmation
For Breakouts:
Look for volume spike (2x+ average) on breakout
Declining volume often signals false breakout
Rising volume during range formation shows interest
Market Context Filters
Best Conditions:
Trending market days (SPY/QQQ with clear direction)
Earnings reactions or news-driven moves
High-volume stocks with good liquidity
Volatility above average (VIX considerations)
Avoid Trading When:
Extremely low volume days
Major economic announcements pending
Holidays or half-days
Choppy, sideways market conditions
Risk Management Rules
Position Sizing
Conservative: Risk 0.5% of account per trade
Moderate: Risk 1% of account per trade
Aggressive: Risk 2% maximum per trade
Stop Loss Placement
Inside the range: Quick exit but higher stop-out rate
Outside opposite level: More room but larger risk
ATR-based: 1.5-2x Average True Range below entry
Profit Taking
Target 1: 1x range size (take 50% off)
Target 2: 2x range size (take 25% off)
Runner: Trail remaining 25% with moving stops
Specific Entry Techniques
Breakout Entry Methods
Method 1: Immediate Entry
Enter as soon as price closes above/below range
Fastest entry but highest false signal rate
Best for strong momentum situations
Method 2: Pullback Entry
Wait for breakout, then pullback to range level
Enter when price bounces off former resistance/support
Better risk/reward but may miss some moves
Method 3: Volume Confirmation
Wait for breakout + volume spike
Enter after volume confirmation candle
Reduces false signals significantly
Multiple Timeframe Entries
Aggressive: OR5 break → immediate entry
Conservative: OR5 + OR15 + OR30 all align → enter
Balanced: OR15 break with OR30 support → enter
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Trading Poor-Quality Ranges
❌ Don't trade ranges that are too narrow or too wide
✅ Focus on clean, well-defined ranges with good volume
2. Ignoring Volume
❌ Don't chase breakouts without volume confirmation
✅ Always check for volume spike on breakouts
3. Over-Trading
❌ Don't force trades when ranges are unclear
✅ Wait for high-probability setups only
4. Poor Risk Management
❌ Don't risk more than planned or use tight stops in volatile conditions
✅ Stick to predetermined risk levels
5. Fighting the Trend
❌ Don't fade breakouts in strongly trending markets
✅ Align trades with overall market direction
Daily Trading Routine
Pre-Market (8:00-9:30 AM)
Check overnight news and earnings
Review major indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM)
Identify potential opening range candidates
Set alerts for range breakouts
Market Open (9:30-10:00 AM)
Watch opening range formation
Note volume and price action quality
Mark key levels on charts
Prepare for breakout signals
Trading Session (10:00 AM - 4:00 PM)
Execute breakout strategies
Manage existing positions
Trail stops as profits develop
Look for additional setups
Post-Market Review
Analyze winning and losing trades
Review range quality vs. outcomes
Identify improvement areas
Prepare for next session
Best Stocks/ETFs for Opening Range Trading
Large Cap Stocks (Best for beginners):
AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA
High liquidity, predictable behavior
Good range formation most days
ETFs (Consistent patterns):
SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLF, XLE
Excellent liquidity
Clear range boundaries
Mid-Cap Growth (Advanced traders):
Stocks with good volume (1M+ shares daily)
Recent news catalysts
Clean technical patterns
Performance Optimization
Track These Metrics:
Win rate by range type (OR5 vs OR15 vs OR30)
Average R/R (risk vs reward ratio)
Best performing market conditions
Time of day performance
Continuous Improvement:
Keep detailed trade journal
Review failed breakouts for patterns
Adjust position sizing based on win rate
Refine entry timing based on backtesting
Final Tips for Success
Start small - Paper trade or use tiny positions initially
Focus on quality - Better to miss trades than take bad ones
Stay disciplined - Stick to your rules even during losing streaks
Adapt to conditions - What works in trending markets may fail in choppy conditions
Keep learning - Markets evolve, so should your approach
The opening range strategy is powerful because it captures natural market behavior, but like all strategies, it requires practice, discipline, and proper risk management to be profitable long-term.
Initial Balance Breakout Signals [LuxAlgo]The Initial Balance Breakout Signals help traders identify breakouts of the Initial Balance (IB) range.
The indicator includes automatic detection of IB or can use custom sessions, highlights top and bottom IB extensions, custom Fibonacci levels, and goes further with an IB forecast with two different modes.
🔶 USAGE
The initial balance is the price range made within the first hour of the trading session. It is an intraday concept based on the idea that high volume and volatility enter the market through institutional trading at the start of the session, setting the tone for the rest of the day.
The initial balance is useful for gauging market sentiment, or, in other words, the relationship between buyers and sellers.
Bullish sentiment: Price trades above the IB range.
Mixed sentiment: Price trades within the IB range.
Bearish sentiment: Price trades below the IB range.
The initial balance high and low are important levels that many traders use to gauge sentiment. There are two main ideas behind trading around the IB range.
IB Extreme Breakout: When the price breaks and holds the IB high or low, there is a high probability that the price will continue in that direction.
IB Extreme Rejection: When the price tries to break those levels but fails, there is a high probability that it will reach the opposite IB extreme.
This indicator is a complete Initial Balance toolset with custom sessions, breakout signals, IB extensions, Fibonacci retracements, and an IB forecast. All of these features will be explained in the following sections.
🔹 Custom Sessions and Signals
By default, sessions for Initial Balance and breakout signals are in Auto mode. This means that Initial Balance takes the first hour of the trading session and shows breakout signals for the rest of the session.
With this option, traders can use the tool for open range trading, making it highly versatile. The concept behind open range (OR) is the same as that of initial balance (IB), but in OR, the range is determined by the first minute, three or five minutes, or up to the first 30 minutes of the trading session.
As shown in the image above, the top chart uses the Auto feature for the IB and Breakouts sessions. The bottom chart has the Auto feature disabled to use custom sessions for both parameters. In this case, the first three minutes of the trading session are used, turning the tool into an Open Range trading indicator.
This chart shows another example of using custom sessions to display overnight NASDAQ futures sessions.
The left chart shows a custom session from the Tokyo open to the London open, and the right chart shows a custom session from the London open to the New York open.
The chart shows both the Asian and European sessions, their top and bottom extremes, and the breakout signals from those extremes.
🔹 Initial Balance Extensions
Traders can easily extend both extremes of the Initial Balance to display their preferred targets for breakouts. Enable or disable any of them and set the IB percentage to use for the extension.
As the chart shows, the percentage selected on the settings panel directly affects the displayed levels.
Setting 25 means the tool will use a quarter of the detected initial balance range for extensions beyond the IB extremes. Setting 100 means the full IB range will be used.
Traders can use these extensions as targets for breakout signals.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
Traders can display default or custom Fibonacci levels on the IB range to trade retracements and assess the strength of market movements. Each level can be enabled or disabled and customized by level, color, and line style.
As we can see on the chart, after the IB was completed, prices were unable to fall below the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This indicates significant bullish pressure, so it is expected that prices will rise.
Traders can use these levels as guidelines to assess the strength of the side trying to penetrate the IB. In this case, the sellers were unable to move the market beyond the first level.
🔹 Initial Balance Forecast
The tool features two different forecasting methods for the current IB. By default, it takes the average of the last ten values and applies a multiplier of one.
IB Against Previous Open: averages the difference between IB extremes and the open of the previous session.
Filter by current day of the week: averages the difference between IB extremes and the open of the current session for the same day of the week.
This feature allows traders to see the difference between the current IB and the average of the last IBs. It makes it very easy to interpret: if the current IB is higher than the average, buyers are in control; if it is lower than the average, sellers are in control.
For example, on the left side of the chart, we can see that the last day was very bullish because the IB was completely above the forecasted value. This is the IB mean of the last ten trading days.
On the right, we can see that on Monday, September 15, the IB traded slightly higher but within the forecasted value of the IB mean of the last ten Mondays. In this case, it is within expectations.
🔶 SETTINGS
Display Last X IBs: Select how many IBs to display.
Initial Balance: Choose a custom session or enable the Auto feature.
Breakouts: Enable or disable breakouts. Choose custom session or enable the Auto feature.
🔹 Extensions
Top Extension: Enable or disable the top extension and choose the percentage of IB to use.
Bottom extension: Enable or disable the bottom extension and choose the percentage of IB to use.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
Display Fibonacci: Enable or disable Fibonacci levels.
Reverse: Reverse Fibonacci levels.
Levels, Colors & Style
Display Labels: Enable or disable labels and choose text size.
🔹 Forecast
Display Forecast: Select the forecast method.
- IB Against Previous Open: Calculates the average difference between the IB high and low and the previous day's IB open price.
- Filter by Current Day of Week: Calculates the average difference between the IB high and low and the IB open price for the same day of the week.
Forecast Memory: The number of data points used to calculate the average.
Forecast Multiplier: This multiplier will be applied to the average. Bigger numbers will result in wider predicted ranges.
Forecast Colors: Choose from a variety of colors.
Forecast Style: Choose a line style.
🔹 Style
Initial Balance Colors
Extension Transparency: Choose the extension's transparency. 0 is solid, and 100 is fully transparent.
Options Max Pain Calculator [BackQuant]Options Max Pain Calculator
A visualization tool that models option expiry dynamics by calculating "max pain" levels, displaying synthetic open interest curves, gamma exposure profiles, and pin-risk zones to help identify where market makers have the least payout exposure.
What is Max Pain?
Max Pain is the theoretical expiration price where the total dollar value of outstanding options would be minimized. At this price level, option holders collectively experience maximum losses while option writers (typically market makers) have minimal payout obligations. This creates a natural gravitational pull as expiration approaches.
Core Features
Visual Analysis Components:
Max Pain Line: Horizontal line showing the calculated minimum pain level
Strike Level Grid: Major support and resistance levels at key option strikes
Pin Zone: Highlighted area around max pain where price may gravitate
Pain Heatmap: Color-coded visualization showing pain distribution across prices
Gamma Exposure Profile: Bar chart displaying net gamma at each strike level
Real-time Dashboard: Summary statistics and risk metrics
Synthetic Market Modeling**
Since Pine Script cannot access live options data, the indicator creates realistic synthetic open interest distributions based on configurable market parameters including volume patterns, put/call ratios, and market maker positioning.
How It Works
Strike Generation:
The tool creates a grid of option strikes centered around the current price. You can control the range, density, and whether strikes snap to realistic market increments.
Open Interest Modeling:
Using your inputs for average volume, put/call ratios, and market maker behavior, the indicator generates synthetic open interest that mirrors real market dynamics:
Higher volume at-the-money with decay as strikes move further out
Adjustable put/call bias to reflect current market sentiment
Market maker inventory effects and typical short-gamma positioning
Weekly options boost for near-term expirations
Pain Calculation:
For each potential expiry price, the tool calculates total option payouts:
Call options contribute pain when finishing in-the-money
Put options contribute pain when finishing in-the-money
The strike with minimum total pain becomes the Max Pain level
Gamma Analysis:
Net gamma exposure is calculated at each strike using standard option pricing models, showing where hedging flows may be most intense. Positive gamma creates price support while negative gamma can amplify moves.
Key Settings
Basic Configuration:
Number of Strikes: Controls grid density (recommended: 15-25)
Days to Expiration: Time until option expiry
Strike Range: Price range around current level (recommended: 8-15%)
Strike Increment: Spacing between strikes
Market Parameters:
Average Daily Volume: Baseline for synthetic open interest
Put/Call Volume Ratio: Market sentiment bias (>1.0 = bearish, <1.0 = bullish) It does not work if set to 1.0
Implied Volatility: Current option volatility estimate
Market Maker Factors: Dealer positioning and hedging intensity
Display Options:
Model Complexity: Simple (line only), Standard (+ zones), Advanced (+ heatmap/gamma)
Visual Elements: Toggle individual components on/off
Theme: Dark/Light mode
Update Frequency: Real-time or daily calculation
Reading the Display
Dashboard Table (Top Right):
Current Price vs Max Pain Level
Distance to Pain: Percentage gap (smaller = higher pin risk)
Pin Risk Assessment: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW based on proximity and time
Days to Expiry and Strike Count
Model complexity level
Visual Elements:
Red Line: Max Pain level where payout is minimized
Colored Zone: Pin risk area around max pain
Dotted Lines: Major strike levels (green = support, orange = resistance)
Color Bar: Pain heatmap (blue = high pain, red = low pain/max pain zones)
Horizontal Bars: Gamma exposure (green = positive, red = negative)
Yellow Dotted Line: Gamma flip level where hedging behavior changes
Trading Applications
Expiration Pinning:
When price is near max pain with limited time remaining, there's increased probability of gravitating toward that level as market makers hedge their positions.
Support and Resistance:
High open interest strikes often act as magnets, with max pain representing the strongest gravitational pull.
Volatility Expectations:
Above gamma flip: Expect dampened volatility (long gamma environment)
Below gamma flip: Expect amplified moves (short gamma environment)
Risk Assessment:
The pin risk indicator helps gauge likelihood of price manipulation near expiry, with HIGH risk suggesting potential range-bound action.
Best Practices
Setup Recommendations
Start with Model Complexity set to "Standard"
Use realistic strike ranges (8-12% for most assets)
Set put/call ratio based on current market sentiment
Adjust implied volatility to match current levels
Interpretation Guidelines:
Small distance to pain + short time = high pin probability
Large gamma bars indicate key hedging levels to monitor
Heatmap intensity shows strength of pain concentration
Multiple nearby strikes can create wider pin zones
Update Strategy:
Use "Daily" updates for cleaner visuals during trading hours
Switch to "Every Bar" for real-time analysis near expiration
Monitor changes in max pain level as new options activity emerges
Important Disclaimers
This is a modeling tool using synthetic data, not live market information. While the calculations are mathematically sound and the modeling realistic, actual market dynamics involve numerous factors not captured in any single indicator.
Max pain represents theoretical minimum payout levels and suggests where natural market forces may create gravitational pull, but it does not guarantee price movement or predict exact expiration levels. Market gaps, news events, and changing volatility can override these dynamics.
Use this tool as additional context for your analysis, not as a standalone trading signal. The synthetic nature of the data makes it most valuable for understanding market structure and potential zones of interest rather than precise price prediction.
Technical Notes
The indicator uses established option pricing principles with simplified implementations optimized for Pine Script performance. Gamma calculations use standard financial models while pain calculations follow the industry-standard definition of minimized option payouts.
All visual elements use fixed positioning to prevent movement when scrolling charts, and the tool includes performance optimizations to handle real-time calculation without timeout errors.
Ultimate Gold Long Indicator - Execução Final v26.1 By M.LolasUltimate Gold Long Indicator - Execução Final v26.1 By M.Lolas
Central indicator for by long in 15m time frame 20x.
“Backtested indicator for an aggressive 15-minute, 20×-leverage strategy, packed with capital-protection features.”
By M.Lolas
Ultimate Gold Confluence Score – Validator v6.1 By M.Lolas“Ultimate Gold Confluence Score Validator — multi-indicator add-on for a 15-minute, 20× long strategy with a very high win rate. Supports the strategy’s main indicator.”
15m Continuation — prev → new (v6, styled)This indicator gives you backtested statistics on how often reversals vs continuations occur on 15 minute candles on any pair you want to trade. This is great for 15m binary markets like on Polymarket.
open 5 min range 09:00/15:30the indicator will remove himself after 2h. it´s for trading in the 1min chart. wait for breakout, than retest and after that trade away from the boxes if u see price action.
1H FVG Zones Only (5m & 1h)new uses trend anaylosis. takes 15 min chart and breaks into 1hr chart fvg gaps
15m FVG Inversion + Order BlockThe indicator finds the inversion of the FVG 15 minutes and the order block, after which it gives an entry signal.
FlowSpike ES — BB • RSI • VWAP + AVWAP + News MuteThis indicator is purpose-built for E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures traders, combining volatility bands, momentum filters, and session-anchored levels into a streamlined tool for intraday execution.
Key Features:
• ES-Tuned Presets
Automatically optimized settings for scalping (1–2m), daytrading (5m), and swing trading (15–60m) timeframes.
• Bollinger Band & RSI Signals
Entry signals trigger only at statistically significant extremes, with RSI filters to reduce false moves.
• VWAP & Anchored VWAPs
Session VWAP plus anchored VWAPs (RTH open, weekly, monthly, and custom) provide high-confidence reference levels used by professional order-flow traders.
• Volatility Filter (ATR in ticks)
Ensures signals are only shown when the ES is moving enough to offer tradable edges.
• News-Time Mute
Suppresses signals around scheduled economic releases (customizable windows in ET), helping traders avoid whipsaw conditions.
• Clean Alerts
Long/short alerts are generated only when all conditions align, with optional bar-close confirmation.
Why It’s Tailored for ES Futures:
• Designed around ES tick size (0.25) and volatility structure.
• Session settings respect RTH hours (09:30–16:00 ET), the period where most liquidity and institutional flows concentrate.
• ATR thresholds and RSI bands are pre-tuned for ES market behavior, reducing the need for manual optimization.
⸻
This is not a generic indicator—it’s a futures-focused tool created to align with the way ES trades day after day. Whether you scalp the open, manage intraday swings, or align to weekly/monthly anchored flows, FlowSpike ES gives you a clear, rules-based signal framework.
Small Business Economic Conditions - Statistical Analysis ModelThe Small Business Economic Conditions Statistical Analysis Model (SBO-SAM) represents an econometric approach to measuring and analyzing the economic health of small business enterprises through multi-dimensional factor analysis and statistical methodologies. This indicator synthesizes eight fundamental economic components into a composite index that provides real-time assessment of small business operating conditions with statistical rigor. The model employs Z-score standardization, variance-weighted aggregation, higher-order moment analysis, and regime-switching detection to deliver comprehensive insights into small business economic conditions with statistical confidence intervals and multi-language accessibility.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Foundation
The development of quantitative models for assessing small business economic conditions has gained significant importance in contemporary financial analysis, particularly given the critical role small enterprises play in economic development and employment generation. Small businesses, typically defined as enterprises with fewer than 500 employees according to the U.S. Small Business Administration, constitute approximately 99.9% of all businesses in the United States and employ nearly half of the private workforce (U.S. Small Business Administration, 2024).
The theoretical framework underlying the SBO-SAM model draws extensively from established academic research in small business economics and quantitative finance. The foundational understanding of key drivers affecting small business performance builds upon the seminal work of Dunkelberg and Wade (2023) in their analysis of small business economic trends through the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends survey. Their research established the critical importance of optimism, hiring plans, capital expenditure intentions, and credit availability as primary determinants of small business performance.
The model incorporates insights from Federal Reserve Board research, particularly the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (Federal Reserve Board, 2024), which demonstrates the critical importance of credit market conditions in small business operations. This research consistently shows that small businesses face disproportionate challenges during periods of credit tightening, as they typically lack access to capital markets and rely heavily on bank financing.
The statistical methodology employed in this model follows the econometric principles established by Hamilton (1989) in his work on regime-switching models and time series analysis. Hamilton's framework provides the theoretical foundation for identifying different economic regimes and understanding how economic relationships may vary across different market conditions. The variance-weighted aggregation technique draws from modern portfolio theory as developed by Markowitz (1952) and later refined by Sharpe (1964), applying these concepts to economic indicator construction rather than traditional asset allocation.
Additional theoretical support comes from the work of Engle and Granger (1987) on cointegration analysis, which provides the statistical framework for combining multiple time series while maintaining long-term equilibrium relationships. The model also incorporates insights from behavioral economics research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) on prospect theory, recognizing that small business decision-making may exhibit systematic biases that affect economic outcomes.
2. Model Architecture and Component Structure
The SBO-SAM model employs eight orthogonalized economic factors that collectively capture the multifaceted nature of small business operating conditions. Each component is normalized using Z-score standardization with a rolling 252-day window, representing approximately one business year of trading data. This approach ensures statistical consistency across different market regimes and economic cycles, following the methodology established by Tsay (2010) in his treatment of financial time series analysis.
2.1 Small Cap Relative Performance Component
The first component measures the performance of the Russell 2000 index relative to the S&P 500, capturing the market-based assessment of small business equity valuations. This component reflects investor sentiment toward smaller enterprises and provides a forward-looking perspective on small business prospects. The theoretical justification for this component stems from the efficient market hypothesis as formulated by Fama (1970), which suggests that stock prices incorporate all available information about future prospects.
The calculation employs a 20-day rate of change with exponential smoothing to reduce noise while preserving signal integrity. The mathematical formulation is:
Small_Cap_Performance = (Russell_2000_t / S&P_500_t) / (Russell_2000_{t-20} / S&P_500_{t-20}) - 1
This relative performance measure eliminates market-wide effects and isolates the specific performance differential between small and large capitalization stocks, providing a pure measure of small business market sentiment.
2.2 Credit Market Conditions Component
Credit Market Conditions constitute the second component, incorporating commercial lending volumes and credit spread dynamics. This factor recognizes that small businesses are particularly sensitive to credit availability and borrowing costs, as established in numerous Federal Reserve studies (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). Small businesses typically face higher borrowing costs and more stringent lending standards compared to larger enterprises, making credit conditions a critical determinant of their operating environment.
The model calculates credit spreads using high-yield bond ETFs relative to Treasury securities, providing a market-based measure of credit risk premiums that directly affect small business borrowing costs. The component also incorporates commercial and industrial loan growth data from the Federal Reserve's H.8 statistical release, which provides direct evidence of lending activity to businesses.
The mathematical specification combines these elements as:
Credit_Conditions = α₁ × (HYG_t / TLT_t) + α₂ × C&I_Loan_Growth_t
where HYG represents high-yield corporate bond ETF prices, TLT represents long-term Treasury ETF prices, and C&I_Loan_Growth represents the rate of change in commercial and industrial loans outstanding.
2.3 Labor Market Dynamics Component
The Labor Market Dynamics component captures employment cost pressures and labor availability metrics through the relationship between job openings and unemployment claims. This factor acknowledges that labor market tightness significantly impacts small business operations, as these enterprises typically have less flexibility in wage negotiations and face greater challenges in attracting and retaining talent during periods of low unemployment.
The theoretical foundation for this component draws from search and matching theory as developed by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), which explains how labor market frictions affect employment dynamics. Small businesses often face higher search costs and longer hiring processes, making them particularly sensitive to labor market conditions.
The component is calculated as:
Labor_Tightness = Job_Openings_t / (Unemployment_Claims_t × 52)
This ratio provides a measure of labor market tightness, with higher values indicating greater difficulty in finding workers and potential wage pressures.
2.4 Consumer Demand Strength Component
Consumer Demand Strength represents the fourth component, combining consumer sentiment data with retail sales growth rates. Small businesses are disproportionately affected by consumer spending patterns, making this component crucial for assessing their operating environment. The theoretical justification comes from the permanent income hypothesis developed by Friedman (1957), which explains how consumer spending responds to both current conditions and future expectations.
The model weights consumer confidence and actual spending data to provide both forward-looking sentiment and contemporaneous demand indicators. The specification is:
Demand_Strength = β₁ × Consumer_Sentiment_t + β₂ × Retail_Sales_Growth_t
where β₁ and β₂ are determined through principal component analysis to maximize the explanatory power of the combined measure.
2.5 Input Cost Pressures Component
Input Cost Pressures form the fifth component, utilizing producer price index data to capture inflationary pressures on small business operations. This component is inversely weighted, recognizing that rising input costs negatively impact small business profitability and operating conditions. Small businesses typically have limited pricing power and face challenges in passing through cost increases to customers, making them particularly vulnerable to input cost inflation.
The theoretical foundation draws from cost-push inflation theory as described by Gordon (1988), which explains how supply-side price pressures affect business operations. The model employs a 90-day rate of change to capture medium-term cost trends while filtering out short-term volatility:
Cost_Pressure = -1 × (PPI_t / PPI_{t-90} - 1)
The negative weighting reflects the inverse relationship between input costs and business conditions.
2.6 Monetary Policy Impact Component
Monetary Policy Impact represents the sixth component, incorporating federal funds rates and yield curve dynamics. Small businesses are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes due to their higher reliance on variable-rate financing and limited access to capital markets. The theoretical foundation comes from monetary transmission mechanism theory as developed by Bernanke and Blinder (1992), which explains how monetary policy affects different segments of the economy.
The model calculates the absolute deviation of federal funds rates from a neutral 2% level, recognizing that both extremely low and high rates can create operational challenges for small enterprises. The yield curve component captures the shape of the term structure, which affects both borrowing costs and economic expectations:
Monetary_Impact = γ₁ × |Fed_Funds_Rate_t - 2.0| + γ₂ × (10Y_Yield_t - 2Y_Yield_t)
2.7 Currency Valuation Effects Component
Currency Valuation Effects constitute the seventh component, measuring the impact of US Dollar strength on small business competitiveness. A stronger dollar can benefit businesses with significant import components while disadvantaging exporters. The model employs Dollar Index volatility as a proxy for currency-related uncertainty that affects small business planning and operations.
The theoretical foundation draws from international trade theory and the work of Krugman (1987) on exchange rate effects on different business segments. Small businesses often lack hedging capabilities, making them more vulnerable to currency fluctuations:
Currency_Impact = -1 × DXY_Volatility_t
2.8 Regional Banking Health Component
The eighth and final component, Regional Banking Health, assesses the relative performance of regional banks compared to large financial institutions. Regional banks traditionally serve as primary lenders to small businesses, making their health a critical factor in small business credit availability and overall operating conditions.
This component draws from the literature on relationship banking as developed by Boot (2000), which demonstrates the importance of bank-borrower relationships, particularly for small enterprises. The calculation compares regional bank performance to large financial institutions:
Banking_Health = (Regional_Banks_Index_t / Large_Banks_Index_t) - 1
3. Statistical Methodology and Advanced Analytics
The model employs statistical techniques to ensure robustness and reliability. Z-score normalization is applied to each component using rolling 252-day windows, providing standardized measures that remain consistent across different time periods and market conditions. This approach follows the methodology established by Engle and Granger (1987) in their cointegration analysis framework.
3.1 Variance-Weighted Aggregation
The composite index calculation utilizes variance-weighted aggregation, where component weights are determined by the inverse of their historical variance. This approach, derived from modern portfolio theory, ensures that more stable components receive higher weights while reducing the impact of highly volatile factors. The mathematical formulation follows the principle that optimal weights are inversely proportional to variance, maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio of the composite indicator.
The weight for component i is calculated as:
w_i = (1/σᵢ²) / Σⱼ(1/σⱼ²)
where σᵢ² represents the variance of component i over the lookback period.
3.2 Higher-Order Moment Analysis
Higher-order moment analysis extends beyond traditional mean and variance calculations to include skewness and kurtosis measurements. Skewness provides insight into the asymmetry of the sentiment distribution, while kurtosis measures the tail behavior and potential for extreme events. These metrics offer valuable information about the underlying distribution characteristics and potential regime changes.
Skewness is calculated as:
Skewness = E / σ³
Kurtosis is calculated as:
Kurtosis = E / σ⁴ - 3
where μ represents the mean and σ represents the standard deviation of the distribution.
3.3 Regime-Switching Detection
The model incorporates regime-switching detection capabilities based on the Hamilton (1989) framework. This allows for identification of different economic regimes characterized by distinct statistical properties. The regime classification employs percentile-based thresholds:
- Regime 3 (Very High): Percentile rank > 80
- Regime 2 (High): Percentile rank 60-80
- Regime 1 (Moderate High): Percentile rank 50-60
- Regime 0 (Neutral): Percentile rank 40-50
- Regime -1 (Moderate Low): Percentile rank 30-40
- Regime -2 (Low): Percentile rank 20-30
- Regime -3 (Very Low): Percentile rank < 20
3.4 Information Theory Applications
The model incorporates information theory concepts, specifically Shannon entropy measurement, to assess the information content of the sentiment distribution. Shannon entropy, as developed by Shannon (1948), provides a measure of the uncertainty or information content in a probability distribution:
H(X) = -Σᵢ p(xᵢ) log₂ p(xᵢ)
Higher entropy values indicate greater unpredictability and information content in the sentiment series.
3.5 Long-Term Memory Analysis
The Hurst exponent calculation provides insight into the long-term memory characteristics of the sentiment series. Originally developed by Hurst (1951) for analyzing Nile River flow patterns, this measure has found extensive application in financial time series analysis. The Hurst exponent H is calculated using the rescaled range statistic:
H = log(R/S) / log(T)
where R/S represents the rescaled range and T represents the time period. Values of H > 0.5 indicate long-term positive autocorrelation (persistence), while H < 0.5 indicates mean-reverting behavior.
3.6 Structural Break Detection
The model employs Chow test approximation for structural break detection, based on the methodology developed by Chow (1960). This technique identifies potential structural changes in the underlying relationships by comparing the stability of regression parameters across different time periods:
Chow_Statistic = (RSS_restricted - RSS_unrestricted) / RSS_unrestricted × (n-2k)/k
where RSS represents residual sum of squares, n represents sample size, and k represents the number of parameters.
4. Implementation Parameters and Configuration
4.1 Language Selection Parameters
The model provides comprehensive multi-language support across five languages: English, German (Deutsch), Spanish (Español), French (Français), and Japanese (日本語). This feature enhances accessibility for international users and ensures cultural appropriateness in terminology usage. The language selection affects all internal displays, statistical classifications, and alert messages while maintaining consistency in underlying calculations.
4.2 Model Configuration Parameters
Calculation Method: Users can select from four aggregation methodologies:
- Equal-Weighted: All components receive identical weights
- Variance-Weighted: Components weighted inversely to their historical variance
- Principal Component: Weights determined through principal component analysis
- Dynamic: Adaptive weighting based on recent performance
Sector Specification: The model allows for sector-specific calibration:
- General: Broad-based small business assessment
- Retail: Emphasis on consumer demand and seasonal factors
- Manufacturing: Enhanced weighting of input costs and currency effects
- Services: Focus on labor market dynamics and consumer demand
- Construction: Emphasis on credit conditions and monetary policy
Lookback Period: Statistical analysis window ranging from 126 to 504 trading days, with 252 days (one business year) as the optimal default based on academic research.
Smoothing Period: Exponential moving average period from 1 to 21 days, with 5 days providing optimal noise reduction while preserving signal integrity.
4.3 Statistical Threshold Parameters
Upper Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 60-80 (default 70) representing the upper significance level for regime classification.
Lower Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 20-40 (default 30) representing the lower significance level for regime classification.
Statistical Significance Level (α): Alpha level for statistical tests, configurable between 0.01-0.10 with 0.05 as the standard academic default.
4.4 Display and Visualization Parameters
Color Theme Selection: Eight professional color schemes optimized for different user preferences and accessibility requirements:
- Gold: Traditional financial industry colors
- EdgeTools: Professional blue-gray scheme
- Behavioral: Psychology-based color mapping
- Quant: Value-based quantitative color scheme
- Ocean: Blue-green maritime theme
- Fire: Warm red-orange theme
- Matrix: Green-black technology theme
- Arctic: Cool blue-white theme
Dark Mode Optimization: Automatic color adjustment for dark chart backgrounds, ensuring optimal readability across different viewing conditions.
Line Width Configuration: Main index line thickness adjustable from 1-5 pixels for optimal visibility.
Background Intensity: Transparency control for statistical regime backgrounds, adjustable from 90-99% for subtle visual enhancement without distraction.
4.5 Alert System Configuration
Alert Frequency Options: Three frequency settings to match different trading styles:
- Once Per Bar: Single alert per bar formation
- Once Per Bar Close: Alert only on confirmed bar close
- All: Continuous alerts for real-time monitoring
Statistical Extreme Alerts: Notifications when the index reaches 99% confidence levels (Z-score > 2.576 or < -2.576).
Regime Transition Alerts: Notifications when statistical boundaries are crossed, indicating potential regime changes.
5. Practical Application and Interpretation Guidelines
5.1 Index Interpretation Framework
The SBO-SAM index operates on a 0-100 scale with statistical normalization ensuring consistent interpretation across different time periods and market conditions. Values above 70 indicate statistically elevated small business conditions, suggesting favorable operating environment with potential for expansion and growth. Values below 30 indicate statistically reduced conditions, suggesting challenging operating environment with potential constraints on business activity.
The median reference line at 50 represents the long-term equilibrium level, with deviations providing insight into cyclical conditions relative to historical norms. The statistical confidence bands at 95% levels (approximately ±2 standard deviations) help identify when conditions reach statistically significant extremes.
5.2 Regime Classification System
The model employs a seven-level regime classification system based on percentile rankings:
Very High Regime (P80+): Exceptional small business conditions, typically associated with strong economic growth, easy credit availability, and favorable regulatory environment. Historical analysis suggests these periods often precede economic peaks and may warrant caution regarding sustainability.
High Regime (P60-80): Above-average conditions supporting business expansion and investment. These periods typically feature moderate growth, stable credit conditions, and positive consumer sentiment.
Moderate High Regime (P50-60): Slightly above-normal conditions with mixed signals. Careful monitoring of individual components helps identify emerging trends.
Neutral Regime (P40-50): Balanced conditions near long-term equilibrium. These periods often represent transition phases between different economic cycles.
Moderate Low Regime (P30-40): Slightly below-normal conditions with emerging headwinds. Early warning signals may appear in credit conditions or consumer demand.
Low Regime (P20-30): Below-average conditions suggesting challenging operating environment. Businesses may face constraints on growth and expansion.
Very Low Regime (P0-20): Severely constrained conditions, typically associated with economic recessions or financial crises. These periods often present opportunities for contrarian positioning.
5.3 Component Analysis and Diagnostics
Individual component analysis provides valuable diagnostic information about the underlying drivers of overall conditions. Divergences between components can signal emerging trends or structural changes in the economy.
Credit-Labor Divergence: When credit conditions improve while labor markets tighten, this may indicate early-stage economic acceleration with potential wage pressures.
Demand-Cost Divergence: Strong consumer demand coupled with rising input costs suggests inflationary pressures that may constrain small business margins.
Market-Fundamental Divergence: Disconnection between small-cap equity performance and fundamental conditions may indicate market inefficiencies or changing investor sentiment.
5.4 Temporal Analysis and Trend Identification
The model provides multiple temporal perspectives through momentum analysis, rate of change calculations, and trend decomposition. The 20-day momentum indicator helps identify short-term directional changes, while the Hodrick-Prescott filter approximation separates cyclical components from long-term trends.
Acceleration analysis through second-order momentum calculations provides early warning signals for potential trend reversals. Positive acceleration during declining conditions may indicate approaching inflection points, while negative acceleration during improving conditions may suggest momentum loss.
5.5 Statistical Confidence and Uncertainty Quantification
The model provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification through confidence intervals, volatility measures, and regime stability analysis. The 95% confidence bands help users understand the statistical significance of current readings and identify when conditions reach historically extreme levels.
Volatility analysis provides insight into the stability of current conditions, with higher volatility indicating greater uncertainty and potential for rapid changes. The regime stability measure, calculated as the inverse of volatility, helps assess the sustainability of current conditions.
6. Risk Management and Limitations
6.1 Model Limitations and Assumptions
The SBO-SAM model operates under several important assumptions that users must understand for proper interpretation. The model assumes that historical relationships between economic variables remain stable over time, though the regime-switching framework helps accommodate some structural changes. The 252-day lookback period provides reasonable statistical power while maintaining sensitivity to changing conditions, but may not capture longer-term structural shifts.
The model's reliance on publicly available economic data introduces inherent lags in some components, particularly those based on government statistics. Users should consider these timing differences when interpreting real-time conditions. Additionally, the model's focus on quantitative factors may not fully capture qualitative factors such as regulatory changes, geopolitical events, or technological disruptions that could significantly impact small business conditions.
The model's timeframe restrictions ensure statistical validity by preventing application to intraday periods where the underlying economic relationships may be distorted by market microstructure effects, trading noise, and temporal misalignment with the fundamental data sources. Users must utilize daily or longer timeframes to ensure the model's statistical foundations remain valid and interpretable.
6.2 Data Quality and Reliability Considerations
The model's accuracy depends heavily on the quality and availability of underlying economic data. Market-based components such as equity indices and bond prices provide real-time information but may be subject to short-term volatility unrelated to fundamental conditions. Economic statistics provide more stable fundamental information but may be subject to revisions and reporting delays.
Users should be aware that extreme market conditions may temporarily distort some components, particularly those based on financial market data. The model's statistical normalization helps mitigate these effects, but users should exercise additional caution during periods of market stress or unusual volatility.
6.3 Interpretation Caveats and Best Practices
The SBO-SAM model provides statistical analysis and should not be interpreted as investment advice or predictive forecasting. The model's output represents an assessment of current conditions based on historical relationships and may not accurately predict future outcomes. Users should combine the model's insights with other analytical tools and fundamental analysis for comprehensive decision-making.
The model's regime classifications are based on historical percentile rankings and may not fully capture the unique characteristics of current economic conditions. Users should consider the broader economic context and potential structural changes when interpreting regime classifications.
7. Academic References and Bibliography
Bernanke, B. S., & Blinder, A. S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. American Economic Review, 82(4), 901-921.
Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
Boot, A. W. A. (2000). Relationship Banking: What Do We Know? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9(1), 7-25.
Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591-605.
Dunkelberg, W. C., & Wade, H. (2023). NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Federal Reserve Board. (2024). Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.
Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Gordon, R. J. (1988). The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process. American Economic Review, 78(2), 276-283.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Hurst, H. E. (1951). Long-term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 116(1), 770-799.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Krugman, P. (1987). Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes. In S. W. Arndt & J. D. Richardson (Eds.), Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies (pp. 49-70). MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mortensen, D. T., & Pissarides, C. A. (1994). Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 397-415.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Tsay, R. S. (2010). Analysis of Financial Time Series (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
U.S. Small Business Administration. (2024). Small Business Profile. Office of Advocacy, Washington, D.C.
8. Technical Implementation Notes
The SBO-SAM model is implemented in Pine Script version 6 for the TradingView platform, ensuring compatibility with modern charting and analysis tools. The implementation follows best practices for financial indicator development, including proper error handling, data validation, and performance optimization.
The model includes comprehensive timeframe validation to ensure statistical accuracy and reliability. The indicator operates exclusively on daily (1D) timeframes or higher, including weekly (1W), monthly (1M), and longer periods. This restriction ensures that the statistical analysis maintains appropriate temporal resolution for the underlying economic data sources, which are primarily reported on daily or longer intervals.
When users attempt to apply the model to intraday timeframes (such as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, or 12-hour charts), the system displays a comprehensive error message in the user's selected language and prevents execution. This safeguard protects users from potentially misleading results that could occur when applying daily-based economic analysis to shorter timeframes where the underlying data relationships may not hold.
The model's statistical calculations are performed using vectorized operations where possible to ensure computational efficiency. The multi-language support system employs Unicode character encoding to ensure proper display of international characters across different platforms and devices.
The alert system utilizes TradingView's native alert functionality, providing users with flexible notification options including email, SMS, and webhook integrations. The alert messages include comprehensive statistical information to support informed decision-making.
The model's visualization system employs professional color schemes designed for optimal readability across different chart backgrounds and display devices. The system includes dynamic color transitions based on momentum and volatility, professional glow effects for enhanced line visibility, and transparency controls that allow users to customize the visual intensity to match their preferences and analytical requirements. The clean confidence band implementation provides clear statistical boundaries without visual distractions, maintaining focus on the analytical content.
Long Multi-TimeframeTo be used on a 30 minute time frame with Market Bias changing from red to light red or green, 4 or more consecutive red dots on the 15 minute and 30 minute frames inside the market bias, and a red to green Bx-Trender, backed up with good flow (real-time plus green net cumulative flow).
童貞２_MACDUp and down arrows will appear to let you know which way to place it. It is important to be able to analyze the chart before using this indicator. We recommend using our homemade MACD at 15 minutes.
Advanced Trading System - [WOLONG X DBG]Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading System
Overview
This technical analysis indicator combines multiple established methodologies to provide traders with market insights across various timeframes. The system integrates SuperTrend analysis, moving average clouds, MACD-based candle coloring, RSI analysis, and multi-timeframe trend detection to suggest potential entry and exit opportunities for both swing and day trading approaches.
Methodology
The indicator employs a multi-layered analytical approach based on established technical analysis principles:
Core Signal Generation
SuperTrend Engine: Utilizes adaptive SuperTrend calculations with customizable sensitivity (1-20) combined with SMA confirmation filters to identify potential trend changes and continuations
Braid Filter System: Implements moving average filtering using multiple MA types (McGinley Dynamic, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, Hull, Jurik, FRAMA) with percentage-based strength filtering to help reduce false signals
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Analyzes trend conditions across 10 different timeframes (1-minute to Daily) using EMA-based trend detection for broader market context
Advanced Features
MACD Candle Coloring: Applies dynamic 4-level candle coloring system based on MACD histogram momentum and signal line relationships for visual trend strength assessment
RSI Analysis: Identifies potential reversal areas using RSI oversold/overbought conditions with SuperTrend confirmation
Take Profit Analysis: Features dual-mode TP detection using statistical slope analysis and Parabolic SAR integration for exit timing analysis
Key Components
Signal Types
Primary Signals: Green ▲ for potential long entries, Red ▼ for potential short entries with trend and SMA alignment
Reversal Signals: Small circular indicators for RSI-based counter-trend possibilities
Take Profit Markers: X-cross symbols indicating statistical TP analysis zones
Pullback Signals: Purple arrows for potential trend continuation entries using Parabolic SAR
Visual Elements
8-Layer MA Cloud: Customizable moving average cloud system with 3 color themes for trend visualization
Real-Time Dashboard: Multi-timeframe trend analysis table showing bullish/bearish status across all timeframes
Dynamic Candle Colors: 4-intensity MACD-based coloring system (ranging from light to strong trend colors)
Entry/SL/TP Labels: Automatic calculation and display of suggested entry points, stop losses, and multiple take profit levels
Usage Instructions
Basic Configuration
Sensitivity Setting: Start with default value 6
Increase (7-15) for more frequent signals in volatile markets
Decrease (3-5) for higher quality signals in trending markets
MA Filter Type: McGinley Dynamic recommended for smoother signals
Filter Strength: Set to 80% for balanced filtering, adjust based on market conditions
Signal Interpretation
Long Entry: Green ▲ suggests when price crosses above SuperTrend with bullish SMA alignment
Short Entry: Red ▼ suggests when price crosses below SuperTrend with bearish SMA alignment
Reversal Opportunities: Small circles indicate RSI-based counter-trend analysis
Take Profit Zones: X-crosses mark statistical TP areas based on slope analysis
Dashboard Analysis
Green Cells: Bullish trend detected on that timeframe
Red Cells: Bearish trend detected on that timeframe
Multi-Timeframe Confluence: Look for alignment across multiple timeframes for stronger signal confirmation
Risk Management Features
Automatic Calculations
ATR-Based Stop Loss: Dynamic stop loss calculation using ATR multiplier (default 1.9x)
Multiple Take Profit Levels: Three TP targets with 1:1, 1:2, and 1:3 risk-reward ratios
Position Sizing Guidance: Entry labels display suggested price levels for order placement
Confirmation Requirements
Trend Alignment: Requires SuperTrend and SMA confirmation before signal generation
Filter Validation: Braid filter must show sufficient strength before signals activate
Multi-Timeframe Context: Dashboard provides broader market context for decision making
Optimal Settings
Timeframe Recommendations
Scalping: 1M-5M charts with sensitivity 8-12
Day Trading: 15M-1H charts with sensitivity 6-8
Swing Trading: 4H-Daily charts with sensitivity 4-6
Market Conditions
Trending Markets: Reduce sensitivity, increase filter strength
Ranging Markets: Increase sensitivity, enable reversal signals
High Volatility: Adjust ATR risk factor to 2.0-2.5
Advanced Features
Customization Options
MA Cloud Periods: 8 customizable periods for cloud layers (default: 2,6,11,18,21,24,28,34)
Color Themes: Three professional color schemes plus transparent option
Dashboard Position: 9 positioning options with 4 size settings
Signal Filtering: Individual toggle controls for each signal type
Technical Specifications
Moving Average Types: 21 different MA calculations including advanced types (Jurik, FRAMA, VIDA, CMA)
Pullback Detection: Parabolic SAR with customizable start, increment, and maximum values
Statistical Analysis: Linear regression slope calculation for trend-based TP analysis
Important Limitations
Lagging Nature: Some signals may appear after potential entry points due to confirmation requirements
Ranging Markets: May produce false signals during extended sideways price action
High Volatility: Requires parameter adjustment during news events or unusual market conditions
Computational Load: Multiple timeframe analysis may impact performance on slower devices
No Guarantee: All signals are suggestions based on technical analysis and may be incorrect
Educational Disclaimers
This indicator is designed for educational and analytical purposes only. It represents a technical analysis tool based on mathematical calculations of historical price data and should not be considered as financial advice or trading recommendations.
Risk Warning: Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
Important Notes:
Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions
Use appropriate position sizing and risk management strategies
Never risk more than you can afford to lose
Consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance
Seek advice from qualified financial professionals when needed
Performance Disclaimer: Backtesting results do not guarantee future performance. Market conditions change constantly, and what worked in the past may not work in the future. Always paper trade new strategies before risking real capital.
Price Persistence ScreenerPrice Persistence Screener
Pine Script v6 | Inspired by @pradeepbonde on X
This indicator, inspired by the insights of @pradeepbonde , is designed to identify stocks with high price persistence—stocks that consistently close higher than the previous day's close over various lookback periods. As described by Pradeep Bonde, stocks with high persistence are strong candidates for trading pullbacks or consolidations, as they often resume their upward trend due to aggressive buying and low selling pressure. This tool helps traders screen for such stocks and visualize their persistence across multiple timeframes.
Features:
Measures price persistence by counting bars where the closing price exceeds the previous bar’s close for fixed periods: 499, 252, 126, 60, 40, 20, 15, 10, and 5 bars.
Includes a customizable lookback period (1 to 499 bars) for flexible analysis.
Allows users to set a custom persistence threshold (0% to 100%) to highlight strong bullish trends.
How It Works:
For each lookback period, the indicator calculates how many times the closing price is higher than the previous bar’s close.
A higher count indicates stronger bullish persistence, signaling stocks with sustained upward momentum.
Usage:
This screener is aimed to be used on pine screener to see data in columns. Add this indicator to you favorites and in pine screener scan on your watchlist of up to 1000 stocks
Adjust the custom lookback period and threshold via input settings.
Sort columns to compare persistence across timeframes and identify stocks with high persistence for swing trading or long-term holding.
Settings:
Custom Lookback Period (Bars): Set the number of bars for the custom persistence calculation (default: 100).
Custom Persistence Threshold (%): Define the percentage threshold for highlighting high persistence in the custom period (default: 70%).
Credits:
This indicator is based on the price persistence concept shared by @pradeepbonde
in his YouTube video (www.youtube.com). He explains that stocks with high persistence—those consistently closing higher day after day—are strong candidates for trading pullbacks, as they tend to resume their upward trend. This screener automates and visualizes that concept, making it easier for traders to identify such stocks.
Note:
Ensure sufficient historical data is available for accurate calculations, especially for longer periods like 499 bars. if stock is less than 499 bars.
High persistence stocks may eventually lose momentum, signaling potential reversals or shorting opportunities, as noted by @pradeepbonde
.
Use this indicator as part of a broader trading strategy to screen strong trends with custom lookback scan, combining it with other technical or fundamental analysis.
Custom Linear Regression Candles with Real-Time PriceHii this is great indicator to build by chatgpt.
How to use------------
1. It is based on the linear regression formula which gives you accurate market conditions.
2. You can do this with a RSI indicator so you can know overbought and oversell label.
3.If you want to get good accuracy then you can use chart type Heikin Ashi.
Input--------------
1. You can take linear regression length on different timeframes, in my backtest it was
5 to 15 min----30 and 1hour to 4hour---20 and Day---10 you can keep it.
2. You can pinpoint the highs and lows of the linear regression line.
--Please use it and give your feedback.
Sean Trades Style IndicatorThe Sean Trades Style Indicator is a powerful, user-friendly trading tool designed for swing traders who want to trade like Sean from the Options Cartel. It identifies high-probability buy and sell signals based on pivot points, trend confirmations, and price action patterns, helping traders enter and exit trades with precision. Compatible with multiple timeframes, it allows you to set up on daily and weekly charts while executing entries on lower timeframes like 15-minute and 5-minute charts, aligning perfectly with Sean’s strategy. Whether you’re looking to simplify decision-making or follow a proven swing trading approach, this indicator gives you clear visual cues to trade with confidence and consistency.
ORB Pro w/ Filters + Debug Overlay Update with Reason box fixThis indicator is designed to highlight high-probability reversal setups for intraday traders.
It focuses on the cleanest, most reliable candlestick reversal patterns and combines them with trend, VWAP/EMA confluence, and a time-based filter to reduce noise.
🛠️ How It Works
The script scans each bar for well-known reversal signals:
Doji Reversal – small body, long wicks showing indecision.
Hammer / Shooting Star – long wick ≥ 2× body, showing exhaustion.
Engulfing Reversal – full body engulf of the prior candle.
Additional filters include:
✅ VWAP/EMA Confluence (optional) – confirms reversals near key intraday levels.
✅ Time Window (default 9:30–10:30 NY) – avoids false signals later in the session.
✅ Trend Exhaustion Check – requires a short-term directional push before reversal.
✅ Signal Cooldown – limits to one clean signal per move.
When conditions align, the script plots:
🟢 “Bull Rev” label below the bar for bullish reversals.
🔴 “Bear Rev” label above the bar for bearish reversals.
⚙️ Recommended Settings
For the tightest, most reliable signals:
Doji Body % → 25–30
Hammer Wick Multiple → 2.0
Confluence Tolerance % → 0.2–0.3
Time Filter → ON (9:30–10:30 NY)
VWAP/EMA Filter → ON
Cooldown Bars → 10–15
These settings minimize false positives and focus on the strongest reversals.
📈 Use Case
This tool is best for:
Intraday traders (stocks, ETFs, futures, crypto).
Traders who use Opening Range Breakout (ORB) or similar systems but want a secondary tool for catching reversals.
Anyone looking to filter out weak reversal patterns and focus on textbook setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always test in simulation/paper trading before applying live
🚀 Catch textbook reversals with confidence.
This indicator filters out noise and only plots high-probability reversal signals based on proven candlestick patterns + VWAP/EMA confluence.
🔥 Key Features:
✅ Detects Doji, Hammer/Shooting Star, and Engulfing Reversals
✅ VWAP & EMA confluence filter (optional)
✅ Time window filter (default 9:30–10:30 NY for max edge)
✅ Signal cooldown to avoid clutter
✅ Clean chart labels + alert conditions
🎯 Who’s It For?
Day traders who want precision reversal entries
ORB traders looking for secondary setups
Intraday scalpers who value quality over quantity
👉 Designed for traders who want fewer, cleaner, higher-probability signals.
⚠️ Not financial advice. For educational use only
_____
🎯 ORB SET-UP DESCRIPTIONS:
🔧 Exact settings I’d recommend (to avoid that mess):
requireClose = true
requireRetest = true with retestPct = 0.2%
minRangePct = 0.3%, maxRangePct = 1.5%
volumeFilter = true, volumeLength = 20
trendFilter = true, emaLength = 20
cooldownBars = 6 (on 5m chart → 30 minutes)
🔑 ORB Range Settings
Default sweet spot: 0.2% – 0.3%
→ This usually balances enough signals with reduced false breakouts.
High volatility days (CPI, FOMC, big gaps): 0.3% – 0.5%
→ Prevents fake outs.
Low volatility days (tight overnight range, slow open): 0.15% – 0.2%
→ Keeps you from sitting on hands all day.
📌 Filters you already added help you avoid noise
EMA alignment
Volume confirmation
Optional stop/target logic
This means you don’t have to shrink the box to 0.1% — the filters will keep you in higher-probability trades
✅ Why You Might NOT See a Signal
Check box for reason signal to turn it off, updated coloring so that candles are more visable.
ORB Box Too Wide
If the opening range is large, price has to move much further to trigger a clean breakout.
Wide box = fewer signals (but higher quality).
No Clean Break + Hold
Script waits for a candle to break above/below ORB and close strong enough.
A wick poke doesn’t count.
VWAP / EMA Filter Not Aligned
If price breaks but VWAP/EMA trend filter disagrees → no signal.
Keeps you out of fake moves against the trend.
Confirmation Candle Missing (if enabled)
Even if price breaks, the script may want the next bar to confirm direction before signaling.
Cooldown / One-Signal-Per-Break Rule
Some filters prevent back-to-back spam signals.
Only the first clean setup is alerted.
Tape Speed Pulse (Pace + Direction) [v6 + Climax]Tape Speed Pulse (Pace + Direction)
One-liner:
A lightweight “tape pulse” that turns intraday bursts of buying/selling into an easy-to-read histogram, with surge, slowdown, and climax (exhaustion) markers for fast decision-making. Use on sec and min charts.
What it measures
Pace (RVOL): current bar volume vs the recent average (smoothed).
Direction proxy: uptick/downtick by comparing close to close .
Pulse (histogram): direction × pace, so you see who’s pushing and how fast.
Colors
- Lime = Buy surge (pace ≥ threshold & upticking)
- Red = Sell surge (pace ≥ threshold & downticking)
- Teal = Buy pressure, sub-threshold
- Orange = Sell pressure, sub-threshold
- Faded/gray = Near-neutral pace (below the Neutral Band)
Lines (toggleable)
-White = Pace (RVOL)
- Yellow = Slowdown line = a drop of X% from the last 30-bar peak pace
Background tint mirrors the current state so you can glance risk: greenish for buy pressure, reddish for sell pressure.
Signals & alerts
- BUY surge – fires when pace crosses above the surge threshold with uptick direction (optional acceleration & uptick streak filters; cooldown prevents spam).
- SELL surge – mirror logic to downside.
- Slowdown – fires when pace crosses below the yellow slowdown line while direction ≤ 0 (early fade warning).
Climax (exhaustion)
- Buy Climax: previous bar was a buy surge with a large upper wick; current bar slows (below slowdown line) and direction ≤ 0.
- Sell Climax: mirror (large lower wick → slowdown → direction ≥ 0).
- Great for trimming/tight stops or fade setups at obvious spikes.
- Create alerts via Add alert → Condition: this indicator → choose the specific alert (BUY surge, SELL surge, Slowdown, Buy Climax, Sell Climax).
How to use it (playbook)
- Longs (e.g., VWAP reclaim / micro pullback)
- Only take entries when the pulse is teal→lime (buy pressure to buy surge).
- Into prior highs/VWAP bands, take partials on lime spikes.
- If you get a Slowdown dot and bars turn orange/red, tighten or exit.
Shorts (failed reclaim / lower-high)
- Look for teal→orange→red with rising pace at a level.
- Add confidence if a Buy Climax printed right before (exhaustion).
- Risk above the spike; don’t fight true ignitions out of bases.
Simple guardrails
- Avoid new longs when the histogram is orange/red; avoid new shorts when teal/lime.
- Use with VWAP + 9/20 EMA or your levels. The pulse is confirmation, not the whole thesis.
Inputs (what they do & when to tweak)
- Pace lookback (bars) – window for average volume. Lower = faster; higher = steadier.
Too jumpy? raise it. Missing quick bursts? lower it.
- Smoothing EMA (bars) – smooths pace. Higher = calmer.
Use 4–6 during the open; 3–4 midday.
- Surge threshold (× RVOL) – how fast counts as a surge.
Too many surges? raise it. Too late? lower it slightly.
- Slowdown drop from 30-bar max (%) – how far below the recent peak pace to call a slowdown.
Higher % = later slowdown; lower % = earlier warning.
- Neutral band (× RVOL) – paces below this fade to gray.
Raise to clean up noise; lower to see subtle pressure.
- Min seconds between signals – cooldown to prevent spam.
Increase in chop; reduce if you want more pings.
- BUY/SELL: min consecutive upticks/downticks – tiny streak filter.
Raise to avoid wiggles; lower for earlier signals.
Require pace accelerating into signal – ON = avoid stall breakouts; OFF = earlier pings.
Climax options: wick % threshold & “require slowdown cross”.
Raise wick% / require cross to be stricter; lower to catch more fades.
Quick presets
- Low-float runner, 5–10s chart
- Lookback 20, Smoothing 3–4, Surge 2.2–2.8, Slowdown 35–45, Neutral 1.0–1.2, Cooldown 15–25s, Streaks 2–3, Accel ON.
- Thick large-cap, 1-min
- Lookback 20–30, Smoothing 5–7, Surge 1.5–1.9, Slowdown 25–35, Neutral 0.8–1.0, Cooldown 30–60s, Streaks 2, Accel ON.
- Open vs Midday vs Power Hour
- Open: higher Surge, more Smoothing, longer Cooldown.
- Midday: lower Surge, less Smoothing to catch subtler pushes.
- Power hour: moderate Surge; keep Slowdown on for exits.
Reading common patterns
- Ignition (likely continuation): lime spike out of a base that holds above a level while pace stays above yellow.
- Exhaustion (likely fade): lime spike late in a run with upper wick → Slowdown → orange/red. The Buy Climax diamond is your tell.
Limits / notes
This is an OHLCV-based proxy (TradingView Pine can’t read raw tape/DOM). It won’t match Bookmap/Jigsaw tick-for-tick, but it’s fast and objective.
Use with levels and a risk plan. Past performance ≠ future results. Educational only.
