25 Percent LevelsThis script materialises an observation from one of my mentors whereby if you take an all-time high and all-time low and mark off the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile levels you will see some levels of supply and demand being respected.
Cerca negli script per "美联储9月降息25个基点"
Prometheus Polarized Fractal Efficiency (PFE)This indicator uses market data to calculate Polarized Fractal Efficiency (PFE) on an asset, so traders can have a better idea of which direction it may go.
Users can control the lookback length for the fractal calculation, the lookback length for the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and whether or not to display lines at the -50 and 50 level, or -25 and 25 level.
Polarized Fractal Efficiency:
The Polarized Fractal Efficiency (PFE) indicator is a value between -100 and 100 with 0 as a midpoint.
A PFE above 0 indicates the asset may trend higher, a PFE below 0 indicates the asset may trend lower.
There are many ways to trade with PFE, the intuitive trend riding as described above, or reversals.
Even when the PFE is above 0, if it gets high enough, it may also be an indication of a reversal. A PFE of 90 - 100, or -100 - -90, may indicate price is ready to revert the other direction. Furthermore, traders already in a position may look to breaks of other levels to be their take profit or stop out spot.
Calculation:
Pi = 100 x (Price - Price )2 + N2 / Summation, j= 0, to N-2 (Price - Price )2 + 1
If Close < Close Pi = -Pi
PFEi = EMA(Pi, M)
Where:
N = period of indicator
M = smoothing period
Citation: www.investopedia.com
Scenarios:
Inputs are (9, 5) and every display option is on.
Trend example
Step 1: A short trade appears as PFE crosses below -25. We reach a safe take profit as PFE crosses below -50. Traders can use these levels to exit as well as enter.
Step 2: On the cross above 25 there is a safe long. As the PFE value breaks 0 a safe, early take profit could be appropriate for this trade. No guarantee we would see 50.
Step 3: Long scenario at break of 25, straight to 50. Simple, straightforward setup.
Step 4: This long results in a stop loss. Once again entry as PFE crosses 25, but as we cross the 0 line it is for a loss.
Step 5: The last trade in this example is reminiscent of step 3. This is a short trade entry at break of 25 and exit at break of 50.
Traders have liberty to use the PFE value to determine spots to enter and exit trades, long or short. 25 and 50 were chosen arbitrarily, values like 10 and 60 may work as well, we encourage traders to use their own discretion along with tools.
Reversal example
Step 1: PFE is around -100, crossing below it at one point! Strong zone for a potential reversal.
Step 2: PFE crosses above 25 adding conviction.
Step 3: Option to exit at 70.
Step 4: Option to exit at 90.
There is no “one size fits all method”, this approach may be more intuitive for some users and is just as feasible as the first.
Longer trend example
Step 1: Using -50 and 50 this time instead of -25 and 25 to be safer on our entries we see a short here. Was a good entry and as the value gets closer to -70 we can safely close.
Step 2: On this candle we see a long for the break of 50. On the next candle we break the 0 line, but because of our safe entry at 50, we could hold this and only stop out at a break of -25. We get close but stay in it and close at 70.
Step 3: Break of 50 for a long once again. This time the break of 0 line occurs as we are in profit, not letting a green trade go red is a golden rule of trading, so an early exit here.
Step 4: Same at step 2, break of 50 to long and stay in it, not stopping out at break of 0 line. The PFE value eventually reaches 70 and there is a good exit.
Quicker Reversal example
Step 1: Notice a close with PFE below -90, enter long for the reversal. Then close for profit when the PFE crosses above 70.
Step 2: When the PFE breaks above 90 we have a short entry. Like the long closing it when it crosses below -70.
Step 3: This step is the same setup as step 2. As PFE breaks above 90 we have a short entry. Closing it when it crosses below -70.
Recap:
Described above are 4 different examples with many different trades. Both trend and reversal trades. The PFE value is an indicator that can be used by traders in many different ways and Prometheus encourages traders to use their own discretion along with tools and not follow indicators blindly.
Options:
Users can control the input for the lookback of the indicator. The default is 9.
The smoothing factor for the EMA is also changeable, default is 5.
Users have options to display lines at -50, -25, 25, and 50.
ADX and DI-BolarinwaThe Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is a technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend. While the indicator itself doesn’t give an insight into the direction of the trend, the Directional Movement lines can be used to determine if the market moves up or down.
The ADX can return a value between 0 and 100. The usual threshold for a market to be considered as trending by the ADX is a value of 25 or above. Values between 25 and 50 signal a trending market, between 50 and 75 very strong trends and between 75 and 100 extremely strong trends.
The ADX Crossover Trading Strategy
A popular trading strategy to trade on the ADX is based on a crossover of the directional movement lines (+DI and -DI) which was developed directly by the indicator’s creator Mr. Wilder.
The trading strategy states that the first condition for a trade setup is that the ADX has a value of 25 or above, which indicates a trending market.
A buy order is triggered when +DI crosses above -DI, i.e. the underlying trend is an uptrend, while a sell signal is triggered when -DI crosses above +DI, i.e. the underlying trend is a downtrend.
Stop-losses are placed at the low of the current trading day, and the trade setup remains valid even if the directional movement lines cross again after the trade signal. Only a break of the current trading day’s low would lead to the trade setup becoming invalid.
If the ADX remains above 25 or rises even higher, indicating that the strength of the underlying trend increases, then traders can put a trailing stop on the trade.
The following chart shows an example of the ADX crossover strategy on the daily EUR/USD pair.
ADX Crossover Strategy
The first cross of -DI above +DI didn’t send a sell signal because the ADX was below 25. The sell signal came with ADX crossing above 25, while the -DI was still above +DI. On the chart, the SL was put just above the day’s high.
The second signal was a buy signal, with the cross of +DI above -DI and the ADX above 25, signaling a strong trend. The stop-loss is placed just below the day’s low, indicated by the dotted line on the chart.
Finally, the third sell signal came with the cross of -DI above -DI and the ADX above 25. Again, the stop-loss is placed just above the day’s high.
While the ADX crossover strategy can also be applied to lower timeframes, you need to be aware that the increased market noise may create more false signals than on the higher timeframes. The following chart is a 5-minute chart with buy and sell signals based on the crossover strategy. Notice that we placed the stop-losses slightly different than in the previous example. In this case, stop-losses have been placed at the recent highs and lows of the price.
ADX Trading Graph
The first buy signal came with +DI crossing above -DI and ADX above 25. In the middle of the chart, you can notice the crosses of the directional movement lines (+DI and -DI) while the ADX was below 25. As ADX needs to be above 25, those crosses are not used as entry triggers based on the ADX crossover strategy.
After that we received a sell signal with -DI crossing above +DI and ADX above 25, which is followed by a buy signal when +DI crossed above -DI.
Using ADX for Trade Confirmations
Beside the ADX crossover strategy which is based on the crosses of +DI and -DI, traders can also use the ADX indicator to supplement other trading strategies. For example, you might want to use a trend-following strategy when ADX shows a strong trend (value above 25), or a trading strategy that is more suited for ranging markets in times when the ADX shows an absence of trends (value below 25).
Before You Trade
The Average Directional Movement Index is a versatile technical indicator that can be used as a stand-alone trading strategy, or in combination with other trading strategies. The ADX crossover strategy is based on the crossover of the directional movement lines (+DI and -DI) and an ADX reading of above 25. While it can be used across all timeframes, it usually returns the best results on higher ones.
As the ADX measures the strength of the underlying trend, trend-following traders can use it to filter flat and ranging markets and avoid trading during those times.
Directional Movement Index (DMI) + AlertsThis is a Study with associated visual indicators and Bullish/Bearish Alerts for Directional Movement (DMI). It consists of an Average Directional Index (ADX), Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI).
Published by J. Welles Wilder in 1978 for use with currencies and commodities which are typically more volatile than stocks and have stronger trends.
Development Notes
---------------------------
This indicator, and most of the descriptions below, were derived largely from the TradingView reference manual. Feedback and suggestions for improvement are more than welcome, as well are recommended Input settings and best practices for use.
tradingview.com/chart/?solution=43000502250
Strategy Description
---------------------------
ADX defines whether or not there is a trend present; +DI and -DI compliment the ADX by taking direction into account. An ADX above 25 indicates a strong trend, and a Bullish alert is subsequently triggered when +DI is above -DI and a Bearish alert when -DI is above +DI.
Note that the Bullish or Bearish crossover alert will only trigger if ADX is simultaneously above 25 during the crossover event. If ADX later rises to 25 and +DI is still greater than -DI, or -DI greater than +DI, then a delayed alert will not trigger by design.
Basic Use
---------------------------
Acceptable DMI values are up to the trader's interpretation and may change depending on the financial instrument being examined. Recommend not changing any default values without being first familiar with their purpose and impact on the indicator at large.
Confidence in price action and trend is higher when two or more indicators are in agreement -- therefore we recommend not using this indicator by itself to determine entry or exit trade opportunities.
Recommend also choosing 'Once Per Bar Close' when creating alerts.
Inputs
---------------------------
ADX Smoothing - the time period to be used in calculating the ADX which has a smoothing component (14 is the Default).
DI Length - the time period to be used in calculating the DI (14 is the Default).
Key Level - any trade with the ADX above the key level is a strong indicator that it is trending (23 to 25 is the suggested setting).
Sensitivity - an incremental variable to test whether the past n candles are in the same bullish or bearish state before triggering a delayed crossover alert (3 is the Default). Filter out some noise and reduces active alerts.
Show ADX Option - two visual styles are provided for user preference, a visible ADX line or a background overlay (green or red when ADX is above the key level, for bullish or bearish, and gray when below).
Color Candles - an option to transpose the bullish and bearish crossovers to the main candle bars. Can be turned off in the Style Tab by deselecting 'Bar Colors'. Dark blue is bullish, dark purple is bearish, and the black inner color is neutral. Note that the outer red and green border will still be distinguished by whether each individual candle is bearish or bullish during the specified timeframe.
Indicator Visuals
---------------------------
Bullish or Bearish plot based on DMI strategy (ADX and +/-DI values).
Visual cues are intended to improve analysis and decrease interpretation time during trading, as well as to aid in understanding the purpose of this study and how its inclusion can benefit a comprehensive trading strategy.
Trend Strength
---------------------------
To analyze trend strength, the focus should be on the ADX line and not the +DI or -DI lines. An ADX reading above 25 indicates a strong trend, while a reading below 20 indicates a weak or non-existent trend. A reading between those two values would be considered indeterminable. Though what is truly a strong trend or a weak trend depends on the financial instrument being examined; historical analysis can assist in determining appropriate values.
Bullish DI Cross
---------------------------
1. ADX must be over 25 (strong trend) (value is determined by the trader)
2. +DI cross above -DI
3. Set Stop Loss at the current day's low (any +DI cross-backs below -DI should be ignored)
4. Set trailing stop if ADX strengthens (i.e., signal rises)
Bearish DI Cross
---------------------------
1. ADX must be over 25 (strong trend) (value is determined by the trader)
2. -DI cross above +DI
3. Set Stop Loss at the current day's high (any -DI cross-backs below +DI should be ignored)
4. Set trailing stop if ADX strengthens (i.e., signal rises)
Disclaimer
---------------------------
This post and the script are not intended to provide any financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
No known repainting.
Version 1.1
-------------------------
- Added multi-timeframe resolution using PineCoders secure security function to eliminate repainting.
- Cleaned up option for selecting ADX view; and added a colored line as a choice, based on same bullish, bearish, or neutral colors as the background.
- Added exit crossover indicator to aid in an overall strategy development. This ability pairs better with my CHOP Zone Entry Strategy which relies on DMI Exits. Note that exit conditions don't employ the sensitivity variable. Green labels are for Bullish exits and red are for Bearish.
-- Exit condition is triggered if in an active Bullish or Bearish position and ADX drops below 25, Or if either the -DI crosses above +DI (for previously Bullish) or +DI crosses above -DI (for previously Bearish).
- Added reverse position determination. Triggers when a Bullish entry occurs on the same candle as a Bearish exit, or vice versa. Green labels are for Bullish reverses and red are for Bearish.
- Added selectable option to choose visible labels -- Bearish, Bullish, Both, Exits, Reverses, or All.
-- Note that a reverse label will only show if the opposing entry and exit labels are set to show, otherwise the reverse will revert to the appropriate entry or exit on the chart.
- Added alerts to account for new conditions.
-- Note that alerts for crossovers, exits, and reverses will only be triggered if the associated labels are selected to be shown (i.e., what you choose to see on the chart is what you will be alerted to).
Version 1.2
-------------------------
- Changed exit condition to be decided on by whether ADX is below 25 and on a +/-DI crossover. Versus being either or. The previous version had too many false triggers. This variety can now show multiple Bullish or Bearish alerts before an Exit condition too. I'm tempted to simply make this condition based on ADX, and not DI … thoughts? See lines 138 and 139.
- Updated the Background view to have deeper shades of colors dependent upon the ADX trend strength.
- Added an Oscillator view for the ADX and momentum computations to color the histogram by trend. DI lines are hidden.
-- If ADX is Bullish, then the oscillator is colored light green in an uptrend and dark green in a downtrend; if Bearish, then its light red in an uptrend and dark redin a downtrend; if adx is below key level, then it is light gray in a downtrend and dark grey in the uptrend.
- Added option to Hide ADX in case only the Directional lines are desired. This could be useful if you would like to have the ADX oscillator in one panel and +/-DI crossovers in another.
- Added a Columnar view for the ADX. DI lines are hidden. This view is really simple and compact, with the trend strength still easily understood. Colors are the same as for the oscillator -- the deeper the shade of green or red, then the higher the ADX trend strength level.
- Added a Trend Strength label.
ADX Trend Strength Trade (Y/N) Setup Types
0 to 10 = Barely Breathing N N/A
10 to 20 = Weak Trend Y Range/Pre-Breakout
20 to 30 = Potentially Starting to Trend Y Early Stage Trend
30 to 50 = Strong Trend Y Ride the Wave
50 to 75 = Very Strong Trend N Exhaustion
75 to 100 = Extremely Strong Trend N N/A
Version 1.3
-------------------------
Updated to Pine Script v5 to resolve errors from the deprecated v4 version.
This is a reissue of a previously published script that was hidden due to a v4 compatibility issue.
'https://www.tradingview.com/script/9OoEHrv5-Directional-Movement-Index-DMI-Alerts/'
Langlands-Operadic Möbius Vortex (LOMV)Langlands-Operadic Möbius Vortex (LOMV)
Where Pure Mathematics Meets Market Reality
A Revolutionary Synthesis of Number Theory, Category Theory, and Market Dynamics
🎓 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The Langlands-Operadic Möbius Vortex represents a groundbreaking fusion of three profound mathematical frameworks that have never before been combined for market analysis:
The Langlands Program: Harmonic Analysis in Markets
Developed by Robert Langlands (Fields Medal recipient), the Langlands Program creates bridges between number theory, algebraic geometry, and harmonic analysis. In our indicator:
L-Function Implementation:
- Utilizes the Möbius function μ(n) for weighted price analysis
- Applies Riemann zeta function convergence principles
- Calculates quantum harmonic resonance between -2 and +2
- Measures deep mathematical patterns invisible to traditional analysis
The L-Function core calculation employs:
L_sum = Σ(return_val × μ(n) × n^(-s))
Where s is the critical strip parameter (0.5-2.5), controlling mathematical precision and signal smoothness.
Operadic Composition Theory: Multi-Strategy Democracy
Category theory and operads provide the mathematical framework for composing multiple trading strategies into a unified signal. This isn't simple averaging - it's mathematical composition using:
Strategy Composition Arity (2-5 strategies):
- Momentum analysis via RSI transformation
- Mean reversion through Bollinger Band mathematics
- Order Flow Polarity Index (revolutionary T3-smoothed volume analysis)
- Trend detection using Directional Movement
- Higher timeframe momentum confirmation
Agreement Threshold System: Democratic voting where strategies must reach consensus before signal generation. This prevents false signals during market uncertainty.
Möbius Function: Number Theory in Action
The Möbius function μ(n) forms the mathematical backbone:
- μ(n) = 1 if n is a square-free positive integer with even number of prime factors
- μ(n) = -1 if n is a square-free positive integer with odd number of prime factors
- μ(n) = 0 if n has a squared prime factor
This creates oscillating weights that reveal hidden market periodicities and harmonic structures.
🔧 COMPREHENSIVE INPUT SYSTEM
Langlands Program Parameters
Modular Level N (5-50, default 30):
Primary lookback for quantum harmonic analysis. Optimized by timeframe:
- Scalping (1-5min): 15-25
- Day Trading (15min-1H): 25-35
- Swing Trading (4H-1D): 35-50
- Asset-specific: Crypto 15-25, Stocks 30-40, Forex 35-45
L-Function Critical Strip (0.5-2.5, default 1.5):
Controls Riemann zeta convergence precision:
- Higher values: More stable, smoother signals
- Lower values: More reactive, catches quick moves
- High frequency: 0.8-1.2, Medium: 1.3-1.7, Low: 1.8-2.3
Frobenius Trace Period (5-50, default 21):
Galois representation lookback for price-volume correlation:
- Measures harmonic relationships in market flows
- Scalping: 8-15, Day Trading: 18-25, Swing: 25-40
HTF Multi-Scale Analysis:
Higher timeframe context prevents trading against major trends:
- Provides market bias and filters signals
- Improves win rates by 15-25% through trend alignment
Operadic Composition Parameters
Strategy Composition Arity (2-5, default 4):
Number of algorithms composed for final signal:
- Conservative: 4-5 strategies (higher confidence)
- Moderate: 3-4 strategies (balanced approach)
- Aggressive: 2-3 strategies (more frequent signals)
Category Agreement Threshold (2-5, default 3):
Democratic voting minimum for signal generation:
- Higher agreement: Fewer but higher quality signals
- Lower agreement: More signals, potential false positives
Swiss-Cheese Mixing (0.1-0.5, default 0.382):
Golden ratio φ⁻¹ based blending of trend factors:
- 0.382 is φ⁻¹, optimal for natural market fractals
- Higher values: Stronger trend following
- Lower values: More contrarian signals
OFPI Configuration:
- OFPI Length (5-30, default 14): Order Flow calculation period
- T3 Smoothing (3-10, default 5): Advanced exponential smoothing
- T3 Volume Factor (0.5-1.0, default 0.7): Smoothing aggressiveness control
Unified Scoring System
Component Weights (sum ≈ 1.0):
- L-Function Weight (0.1-0.5, default 0.3): Mathematical harmony emphasis
- Galois Rank Weight (0.1-0.5, default 0.2): Market structure complexity
- Operadic Weight (0.1-0.5, default 0.3): Multi-strategy consensus
- Correspondence Weight (0.1-0.5, default 0.2): Theory-practice alignment
Signal Threshold (0.5-10.0, default 5.0):
Quality filter producing:
- 8.0+: EXCEPTIONAL signals only
- 6.0-7.9: STRONG signals
- 4.0-5.9: MODERATE signals
- 2.0-3.9: WEAK signals
🎨 ADVANCED VISUAL SYSTEM
Multi-Dimensional Quantum Aura Bands
Five-layer resonance field showing market energy:
- Colors: Theme-matched gradients (Quantum purple, Holographic cyan, etc.)
- Expansion: Dynamic based on score intensity and volatility
- Function: Multi-timeframe support/resistance zones
Morphism Flow Portals
Category theory visualization showing market topology:
- Green/Cyan Portals: Bullish mathematical flow
- Red/Orange Portals: Bearish mathematical flow
- Size/Intensity: Proportional to signal strength
- Recursion Depth (1-8): Nested patterns for flow evolution
Fractal Grid System
Dynamic support/resistance with projected L-Scores:
- Multiple Timeframes: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50-period highs/lows
- Smart Spacing: Prevents level overlap using ATR-based minimum distance
- Projections: Estimated signal scores when price reaches levels
- Usage: Precise entry/exit timing with mathematical confirmation
Wick Pressure Analysis
Rejection level prediction using candle mathematics:
- Upper Wicks: Selling pressure zones (purple/red lines)
- Lower Wicks: Buying pressure zones (purple/green lines)
- Glow Intensity (1-8): Visual emphasis and line reach
- Application: Confluence with fractal grid creates high-probability zones
Regime Intensity Heatmap
Background coloring showing market energy:
- Black/Dark: Low activity, range-bound markets
- Purple Glow: Building momentum and trend development
- Bright Purple: High activity, strong directional moves
- Calculation: Combines trend, momentum, volatility, and score intensity
Six Professional Themes
- Quantum: Purple/violet for general trading and mathematical focus
- Holographic: Cyan/magenta optimized for cryptocurrency markets
- Crystalline: Blue/turquoise for conservative, stability-focused trading
- Plasma: Gold/magenta for high-energy volatility trading
- Cosmic Neon: Bright neon colors for maximum visibility and aggressive trading
📊 INSTITUTIONAL-GRADE DASHBOARD
Unified AI Score Section
- Total Score (-10 to +10): Primary decision metric
- >5: Strong bullish signals
- <-5: Strong bearish signals
- Quality ratings: EXCEPTIONAL > STRONG > MODERATE > WEAK
- Component Analysis: Individual L-Function, Galois, Operadic, and Correspondence contributions
Order Flow Analysis
Revolutionary OFPI integration:
- OFPI Value (-100% to +100%): Real buying vs selling pressure
- Visual Gauge: Horizontal bar chart showing flow intensity
- Momentum Status: SHIFTING, ACCELERATING, STRONG, MODERATE, or WEAK
- Trading Application: Flow shifts often precede major moves
Signal Performance Tracking
- Win Rate Monitoring: Real-time success percentage with emoji indicators
- Signal Count: Total signals generated for frequency analysis
- Current Position: LONG, SHORT, or NONE with P&L tracking
- Volatility Regime: HIGH, MEDIUM, or LOW classification
Market Structure Analysis
- Möbius Field Strength: Mathematical field oscillation intensity
- CHAOTIC: High complexity, use wider stops
- STRONG: Active field, normal position sizing
- MODERATE: Balanced conditions
- WEAK: Low activity, consider smaller positions
- HTF Trend: Higher timeframe bias (BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL)
- Strategy Agreement: Multi-algorithm consensus level
Position Management
When in trades, displays:
- Entry Price: Original signal price
- Current P&L: Real-time percentage with risk level assessment
- Duration: Bars in trade for timing analysis
- Risk Level: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW based on current exposure
🚀 SIGNAL GENERATION LOGIC
Balanced Long/Short Architecture
The indicator generates signals through multiple convergent pathways:
Long Entry Conditions:
- Score threshold breach with algorithmic agreement
- Strong bullish order flow (OFPI > 0.15) with positive composite signal
- Bullish pattern recognition with mathematical confirmation
- HTF trend alignment with momentum shifting
- Extreme bullish OFPI (>0.3) with any positive score
Short Entry Conditions:
- Score threshold breach with bearish agreement
- Strong bearish order flow (OFPI < -0.15) with negative composite signal
- Bearish pattern recognition with mathematical confirmation
- HTF trend alignment with momentum shifting
- Extreme bearish OFPI (<-0.3) with any negative score
Exit Logic:
- Score deterioration below continuation threshold
- Signal quality degradation
- Opposing order flow acceleration
- 10-bar minimum between signals prevents overtrading
⚙️ OPTIMIZATION GUIDELINES
Asset-Specific Settings
Cryptocurrency Trading:
- Modular Level: 15-25 (capture volatility)
- L-Function Precision: 0.8-1.3 (reactive to price swings)
- OFPI Length: 10-20 (fast correlation shifts)
- Cascade Levels: 5-7, Theme: Holographic
Stock Index Trading:
- Modular Level: 25-35 (balanced trending)
- L-Function Precision: 1.5-1.8 (stable patterns)
- OFPI Length: 14-20 (standard correlation)
- Cascade Levels: 4-5, Theme: Quantum
Forex Trading:
- Modular Level: 35-45 (smooth trends)
- L-Function Precision: 1.6-2.1 (high smoothing)
- OFPI Length: 18-25 (disable volume amplification)
- Cascade Levels: 3-4, Theme: Crystalline
Timeframe Optimization
Scalping (1-5 minute charts):
- Reduce all lookback parameters by 30-40%
- Increase L-Function precision for noise reduction
- Enable all visual elements for maximum information
- Use Small dashboard to save screen space
Day Trading (15 minute - 1 hour):
- Use default parameters as starting point
- Adjust based on market volatility
- Normal dashboard provides optimal information density
- Focus on OFPI momentum shifts for entries
Swing Trading (4 hour - Daily):
- Increase lookback parameters by 30-50%
- Higher L-Function precision for stability
- Large dashboard for comprehensive analysis
- Emphasize HTF trend alignment
🏆 ADVANCED TRADING STRATEGIES
The Mathematical Confluence Method
1. Wait for Fractal Grid level approach
2. Confirm with projected L-Score > threshold
3. Verify OFPI alignment with direction
4. Enter on portal signal with quality ≥ STRONG
5. Exit on score deterioration or opposing flow
The Regime Trading System
1. Monitor Aether Flow background intensity
2. Trade aggressively during bright purple periods
3. Reduce position size during dark periods
4. Use Möbius Field strength for stop placement
5. Align with HTF trend for maximum probability
The OFPI Momentum Strategy
1. Watch for momentum shifting detection
2. Confirm with accelerating flow in direction
3. Enter on immediate portal signal
4. Scale out at Fibonacci levels
5. Exit on flow deceleration or reversal
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION
Mathematical Position Sizing
- Use Galois Rank for volatility-adjusted sizing
- Möbius Field strength determines stop width
- Fractal Dimension guides maximum exposure
- OFPI momentum affects entry timing
Signal Quality Filtering
- Trade only STRONG or EXCEPTIONAL quality signals
- Increase position size with higher agreement levels
- Reduce risk during CHAOTIC Möbius field periods
- Respect HTF trend alignment for directional bias
🔬 DEVELOPMENT JOURNEY
Creating the LOMV was an extraordinary mathematical undertaking that pushed the boundaries of what's possible in technical analysis. This indicator almost didn't happen. The theoretical complexity nearly proved insurmountable.
The Mathematical Challenge
Implementing the Langlands Program required deep research into:
- Number theory and the Möbius function
- Riemann zeta function convergence properties
- L-function analytical continuation
- Galois representations in finite fields
The mathematical literature spans decades of pure mathematics research, requiring translation from abstract theory to practical market application.
The Computational Complexity
Operadic composition theory demanded:
- Category theory implementation in Pine Script
- Multi-dimensional array management for strategy composition
- Real-time democratic voting algorithms
- Performance optimization for complex calculations
The Integration Breakthrough
Bringing together three disparate mathematical frameworks required:
- Novel approaches to signal weighting and combination
- Revolutionary Order Flow Polarity Index development
- Advanced T3 smoothing implementation
- Balanced signal generation preventing directional bias
Months of intensive research culminated in breakthrough moments when the mathematics finally aligned with market reality. The result is an indicator that reveals market structure invisible to conventional analysis while maintaining practical trading utility.
🎯 PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION
Getting Started
1. Apply indicator with default settings
2. Select appropriate theme for your markets
3. Observe dashboard metrics during different market conditions
4. Practice signal identification without trading
5. Gradually adjust parameters based on observations
Signal Confirmation Process
- Never trade on score alone - verify quality rating
- Confirm OFPI alignment with intended direction
- Check fractal grid level proximity for timing
- Ensure Möbius field strength supports position size
- Validate against HTF trend for bias confirmation
Performance Monitoring
- Track win rate in dashboard for strategy assessment
- Monitor component contributions for optimization
- Adjust threshold based on desired signal frequency
- Document performance across different market regimes
🌟 UNIQUE INNOVATIONS
1. First Integration of Langlands Program mathematics with practical trading
2. Revolutionary OFPI with T3 smoothing and momentum detection
3. Operadic Composition using category theory for signal democracy
4. Dynamic Fractal Grid with projected L-Score calculations
5. Multi-Dimensional Visualization through morphism flow portals
6. Regime-Adaptive Background showing market energy intensity
7. Balanced Signal Generation preventing directional bias
8. Professional Dashboard with institutional-grade metrics
📚 EDUCATIONAL VALUE
The LOMV serves as both a practical trading tool and an educational gateway to advanced mathematics. Traders gain exposure to:
- Pure mathematics applications in markets
- Category theory and operadic composition
- Number theory through Möbius function implementation
- Harmonic analysis via L-function calculations
- Advanced signal processing through T3 smoothing
⚖️ RESPONSIBLE USAGE
This indicator represents advanced mathematical research applied to market analysis. While the underlying mathematics are rigorously implemented, markets remain inherently unpredictable.
Key Principles:
- Use as part of comprehensive trading strategy
- Implement proper risk management at all times
- Backtest thoroughly before live implementation
- Understand that past performance does not guarantee future results
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
The mathematics reveal deep market structure, but successful trading requires discipline, patience, and sound risk management beyond any indicator.
🔮 CONCLUSION
The Langlands-Operadic Möbius Vortex represents a quantum leap forward in technical analysis, bringing PhD-level pure mathematics to practical trading while maintaining visual elegance and usability.
From the harmonic analysis of the Langlands Program to the democratic composition of operadic theory, from the number-theoretic precision of the Möbius function to the revolutionary Order Flow Polarity Index, every component works in mathematical harmony to reveal the hidden order within market chaos.
This is more than an indicator - it's a mathematical lens that transforms how you see and understand market structure.
Trade with mathematical precision. Trade with the LOMV.
*"Mathematics is the language with which God has written the universe." - Galileo Galilei*
*In markets, as in nature, profound mathematical beauty underlies apparent chaos. The LOMV reveals this hidden order.*
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
PubLibCandleTrendLibrary "PubLibCandleTrend"
candle trend, multi-part candle trend, multi-part green/red candle trend, double candle trend and multi-part double candle trend conditions for indicator and strategy development
chh()
candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chl()
candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
clh()
candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
cll()
candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cdt()
candle double top condition
Returns: bool
cdb()
candle double bottom condition
Returns: bool
gc()
green candle condition
Returns: bool
gchh()
green candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
gchl()
green candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
gclh()
green candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
gcll()
green candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
gcdt()
green candle double top condition
Returns: bool
gcdb()
green candle double bottom condition
Returns: bool
rc()
red candle condition
Returns: bool
rchh()
red candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
rchl()
red candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
rclh()
red candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
rcll()
red candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
rcdt()
red candle double top condition
Returns: bool
rcdb()
red candle double bottom condition
Returns: bool
chh_1p()
1-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_2p()
2-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_3p()
3-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_4p()
4-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_5p()
5-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_6p()
6-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_7p()
7-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_8p()
8-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_9p()
9-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_10p()
10-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_11p()
11-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_12p()
12-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_13p()
13-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_14p()
14-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_15p()
15-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_16p()
16-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_17p()
17-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_18p()
18-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_19p()
19-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_20p()
20-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_21p()
21-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_22p()
22-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_23p()
23-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_24p()
24-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_25p()
25-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_26p()
26-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_27p()
27-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_28p()
28-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_29p()
29-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chh_30p()
30-part candle higher high condition
Returns: bool
chl_1p()
1-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_2p()
2-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_3p()
3-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_4p()
4-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_5p()
5-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_6p()
6-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_7p()
7-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_8p()
8-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_9p()
9-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_10p()
10-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_11p()
11-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_12p()
12-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_13p()
13-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_14p()
14-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_15p()
15-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_16p()
16-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_17p()
17-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_18p()
18-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_19p()
19-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_20p()
20-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_21p()
21-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_22p()
22-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_23p()
23-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_24p()
24-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_25p()
25-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_26p()
26-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_27p()
27-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_28p()
28-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_29p()
29-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
chl_30p()
30-part candle higher low condition
Returns: bool
clh_1p()
1-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_2p()
2-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_3p()
3-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_4p()
4-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_5p()
5-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_6p()
6-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_7p()
7-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_8p()
8-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_9p()
9-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_10p()
10-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_11p()
11-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_12p()
12-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_13p()
13-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_14p()
14-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_15p()
15-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_16p()
16-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_17p()
17-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_18p()
18-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_19p()
19-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_20p()
20-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_21p()
21-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_22p()
22-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_23p()
23-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_24p()
24-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_25p()
25-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_26p()
26-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_27p()
27-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_28p()
28-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_29p()
29-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
clh_30p()
30-part candle lower high condition
Returns: bool
cll_1p()
1-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_2p()
2-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_3p()
3-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_4p()
4-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_5p()
5-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_6p()
6-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_7p()
7-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_8p()
8-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_9p()
9-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_10p()
10-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_11p()
11-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_12p()
12-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_13p()
13-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_14p()
14-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_15p()
15-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_16p()
16-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_17p()
17-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_18p()
18-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_19p()
19-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_20p()
20-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_21p()
21-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_22p()
22-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_23p()
23-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_24p()
24-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_25p()
25-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_26p()
26-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_27p()
27-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_28p()
28-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_29p()
29-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
cll_30p()
30-part candle lower low condition
Returns: bool
gc_1p()
1-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_2p()
2-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_3p()
3-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_4p()
4-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_5p()
5-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_6p()
6-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_7p()
7-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_8p()
8-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_9p()
9-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_10p()
10-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_11p()
11-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_12p()
12-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_13p()
13-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_14p()
14-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_15p()
15-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_16p()
16-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_17p()
17-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_18p()
18-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_19p()
19-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_20p()
20-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_21p()
21-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_22p()
22-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_23p()
23-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_24p()
24-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_25p()
25-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_26p()
26-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_27p()
27-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_28p()
28-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_29p()
29-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
gc_30p()
30-part green candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_1p()
1-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_2p()
2-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_3p()
3-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_4p()
4-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_5p()
5-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_6p()
6-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_7p()
7-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_8p()
8-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_9p()
9-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_10p()
10-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_11p()
11-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_12p()
12-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_13p()
13-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_14p()
14-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_15p()
15-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_16p()
16-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_17p()
17-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_18p()
18-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_19p()
19-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_20p()
20-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_21p()
21-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_22p()
22-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_23p()
23-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_24p()
24-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_25p()
25-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_26p()
26-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_27p()
27-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_28p()
28-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_29p()
29-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
rc_30p()
30-part red candle condition
Returns: bool
cdut()
candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt()
candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_1p()
1-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_2p()
2-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_3p()
3-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_4p()
4-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_5p()
5-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_6p()
6-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_7p()
7-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_8p()
8-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_9p()
9-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_10p()
10-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_11p()
11-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_12p()
12-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_13p()
13-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_14p()
14-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_15p()
15-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_16p()
16-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_17p()
17-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_18p()
18-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_19p()
19-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_20p()
20-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_21p()
21-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_22p()
22-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_23p()
23-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_24p()
24-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_25p()
25-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_26p()
26-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_27p()
27-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_28p()
28-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_29p()
29-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cdut_30p()
30-part candle double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_1p()
1-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_2p()
2-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_3p()
3-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_4p()
4-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_5p()
5-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_6p()
6-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_7p()
7-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_8p()
8-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_9p()
9-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_10p()
10-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_11p()
11-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_12p()
12-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_13p()
13-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_14p()
14-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_15p()
15-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_16p()
16-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_17p()
17-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_18p()
18-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_19p()
19-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_20p()
20-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_21p()
21-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_22p()
22-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_23p()
23-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_24p()
24-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_25p()
25-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_26p()
26-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_27p()
27-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_28p()
28-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_29p()
29-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
cddt_30p()
30-part candle double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
Strength Measurement -HTThe Strength Measurement -HT indicator is a tool designed to measure the strength and trend of a security using the Average Directional Index (ADX) across multiple time frames. This script averages the ADX values from five different time frames to provide a comprehensive view of the trend's strength, helping traders make more informed decisions.
Key Features:
Multi-Time Frame Analysis: The indicator calculates ADX values from five different time frames (5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours) to offer a more holistic view of the market trend.
Trend Strength Visualization: The average ADX value is plotted as a histogram, with colors indicating the trend strength and direction, making it easy to visualize and interpret.
Reference Levels: The script includes horizontal lines at ADX levels 25, 50, and 75 to signify weak, strong, and very strong trends, respectively.
How It Works
Directional Movement Calculation: The script calculates the positive and negative directional movements (DI+) and (DI-) using the true range over a specified period (default is 14 periods).
ADX Calculation: The ADX value is derived from the smoothed moving average of the absolute difference between DI+ and DI-, normalized by their sum.
Multi-Time Frame ADX: ADX values are computed for the 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour time frames.
Average ADX: The script averages the ADX values from the different time frames to generate a single, comprehensive ADX value.
Trend Visualization: The average ADX value is plotted as a histogram with colors indicating:
Gray for weak trends (ADX < 25)
Green for strengthening trends (25 ≤ ADX < 50)
Dark Green for strong trends (ADX ≥ 50)
Light Red for weakening trends (ADX < 25)
Red for strong trends turning weak (ADX ≥ 25)
Usage
Trend Detection: Use the color-coded histogram to quickly identify the trend strength and direction. Green indicates a strengthening trend, while red signifies a weakening trend.
Reference Levels: Utilize the horizontal lines at ADX levels 25, 50, and 75 as reference points to gauge the trend's strength.
ADX < 25 suggests a weak trend.
ADX between 25 and 50 indicates a moderate to strong trend.
ADX > 50 points to a very strong trend.
Multi-Time Frame Insight: Leverage the averaged ADX value to gain insights from multiple time frames, helping you make more informed trading decisions based on a broader market perspective.
Feel free to explore and integrate this indicator into your trading strategy to enhance your market analysis and decision-making process. Happy trading!
Directional Movement IndexADX is an oscillating indicator, displayed as a single line, ranging from 0 to 100, it only indicates the strength of the trend and does not indicate its direction. In other words, the ADX is non-directional, meaning that it measures the strength of a trend, but doesn’t distinguish between uptrend and downtrends. So, during a strong uptrend, the ADX rises and during a strong downtrend, the ADX also rises.
Here is how you correctly read what ADX is saying about the market. Here are 5 aspects regarding the interpretation of the ADX:
1- When ADX is above 25, trend strength is strong. Usually, once the ADX gets above 25 this signals the beginning of a trend. Big moves (upwards or downwards) tend to happen when ADX is right around this number. You can experiment with this number, some traders that want faster signals, tend to use a 20 threshold when trading with the ADX.
2- When ADX is below 25, traders must avoid trend trading strategies as the market is in accumulation or distribution phase. So, when we see the ADX line below 20 or 25 level, we forget about trend following strategies and we apply strategies suitable for a ranging market.
3- When ADX is above 25 and Positive Directional Movement Indicator (+DMI) is above the Negative Directional Movement Indicator (-DMI). ADX measures the strength of an uptrend. The crossover between the 2 Directional Movement Indicator, as the ADX line is well above 25 can result in an excellent bullish move.
4- The Positive Directional Movement Indicator (+DMI) should be above the Negative Directional Movement and the ADX should be above 25 signals for a strong upward trend for long opportunities. When ADX is above 25 and Positive Directional Movement Indicator is below the Negative Directional Movement Indicator, ADX measures the strength of a downtrend and short opportunities.
5- Values over 50 of the ADX indicate a very strong trend
There are pros and cons of ADX.
So, why is the ADX useful for traders: First, is excellent at quantifying trend strength. Also, it allows traders to see the strength of bulls and bears at the same time. It is good at filtering out trades, during accumulation periods and is good at identifying trending conditions.
But the ADX also has its limitations. The most important disadvantage is the fact that ADX is a lagging indicator that follows the price, so we must be very careful when we apply this indicator, because we might miss the inception of the trend and join it when it’s nearly over.
Also, it offers many false signals when used on shorter time frames, so it’s advisable to trade it on higher time frames Also, the ADX does not contain all of the data necessary a for proper analysis of price action, so it must be used in combination with other tools or indicators.
Now that we fully covered the good and the bad regarding ADX, let’s see how it is used in a trading strategy.
The trading strategy involves a DMI crossover, confirmed by ADX above consolidation threshold. If +DMI crossover, we take long position and if -DMI crosses over, we take a short position.
Candles are re-colored for easy demonstration of uptrend, downtrend and consolidation periods.
Green candles – ADX > Consolidation Threshold and +DMI > -DMI
Red candles – ADX > Consolidation Threshold and +DMI < -DMI
Black candles – ADX < Consolidation Threshold
Repaint – This is a non-repainting strategy - All the signals are generated at candle closing. All the calculations are made on previous candle’s open, high, low, close. No request security function is used. No data is being used from higher time frame. Trade exit uses close function instead of exit to avoid limit orders. Only one long trade at a time (no pyramiding) is allowed.
Strategy Time frame – D (To filter out false signals, higher time frame is recommended)
Strategy For – Swing Traders
Assets – Cryptocurrencies + Stocks
Average Directional Index + ΔDI± (Delta)Average Directional Index (ADX) and Difference between DI+ and DI- (ΔDI±), I call it Delta for short.
The idea explained:
ADX is a common indicator for analysing trend strength. Values over 25 usually indicate the symbol is in "trend mode", meaning there is a lot of momentum, upwards or downwards, - while values under 25 suggest it is in "range mode", the price moves sideways, lacking energy. Note that this indicator is not volume-based.
I moved the graph (red) down 25 points; this version shows positive values in "trend mode" (>25), and negative values in "range mode" (<25). The line sits at 0. The underlying code for the ADX is basically identical to the official TradingView built-in version.
Now the exciting part: DI+ and DI- are used to calculate the ADX. They are sometimes included in the ADX indicator chart, I included a version that shows them in the graphic, at the bottom. Traditionally, DI+ (green) crossing DI- (dark red) from below shows the beginning of an upward trend, and therefore a good LONG entry position. However, I noticed that this is usually not the case: this method responds very slowly to the actual price movement. At the point the indicator tells you to enter, the trend is usually already exhausted.
I found a better way to use this data; instead of waiting for both graphs to cross, meaning the difference in their respective values is 0, we look for the greatest possible difference. That is what the purple graph of my indicator shows (ΔDI±). It utilizes the zero-line we already created for the ADX. High positive values declare that the DI+ is much greater than the DI-, and vice versa. Delta is the greek letter used in mathematics for difference, so that is what I call this indicator.
How to use it:
When you look at the graph, low Delta values seem to be good entry points for LONG positions, high Delta values good exits. This is similar to how RSI and CCI work, which is why included them in the chart above (). However, this is only reliable, when the ADX is above 25, or 0 in this version, indicating the symbol is in "trend mode". This is important .
When you look at the examples in the chart, you can confirm that. The marked candles show good entry and exit points, with Delta being notably low/high (±25 seems to be a good threshold, the dashed lines sit at +30/-30), and the ADX above 0 (25). Now, you might have noticed that around mid-december the Delta actually registers the highest value for this symbol in the given time frame, indicating a strong SHORT after a steep climb. But, importantly , the ADX is not in "trend mode" as required for a clear signal, it is in "range mode": the price discovers this new level and takes a few days to get used to it. It does not fall. This shows why only the combination of both Delta and ADX gives desirable results.
I noticed that this seems to work best for 1D and 1H candles; if you find any other time frames or scenarios, let me know!
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS BASED ON PERSONAL, EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS. PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE SUCCESS IN THE FUTURE. DO NOT TAKE THIS AS INVESTMENT ADVICE!
Thanks to TradingView and robertkowalski for providing the basis on which the code is built. Credit goes to the appropriate developers/owners.
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Let me know if you make any other observations, or find other ways to use the data!
FlowScape PredictorFlowScape Predictor is a non-repainting, regime-aware entry qualifier that turns complex market context into two readiness scores (Long & Short, each 0/25/50/75/100) and clean, confirmed-bar signals. It blends three orthogonal pillars so you act only when trend energy, momentum, and location agree:
Regime (energy): ATR-normalized linear-regression slope of a smooth HMA → EMA baseline, gated by ADX to confirm when pressure is meaningful.
Momentum (push): RSI slope alignment so price has directional follow-through, not just drift.
Structure (location): proximity to pivot-confirmed swings, scaled by ATR, so “ready” appears near constructive pullbacks—not mid-trend chases.
A soft ATR cloud wraps the baseline for context. A yellow Predictive Baseline extends beyond the last bar to visualize near-term trajectory. It is visual-only: scores/alerts never use it.
What you see
Baseline line that turns green/red when regime is strong in that direction; gray when weak.
ATR cloud around the baseline (context for stretch and pullbacks).
Scores (Long & Short, 0–100 in steps of 25) and optional “L/S” icons on bar close.
Yellow Predictive Baseline that extends to the right for a few bars (visual trajectory of the smoothed baseline).
The scoring system (simple and transparent)
Each side (Long/Short) sums four binary checks, 25 points each:
Regime aligned: trendStrong is true and LR slope sign favors that side.
Momentum aligned: RSI side (>50 for Long, <50 for Short) and RSI slope confirms direction.
Baseline side: price is above (Long) / below (Short) the baseline.
Location constructive: distance from the last confirmed pivot is healthy (ATR-scaled; not overstretched).
Valid totals are 0, 25, 50, 75, 100.
Best-quality signal: 100/0 (your side/opposite) on bar close.
Good, still valid: 75/0, especially when the missing block is only “location” right as price re-engages the cloud/baseline.
Avoid: 75/25 or any opposition > 0 in a weak (gray) regime.
The Predictive (Kalman) line — what it is and isn’t
The yellow line is a visual forward extension of the smoothed baseline to help you see the current trajectory and time pullback resumptions. It does not predict price and is excluded from scores and alerts.
How it’s built (plain English):
We maintain a one-dimensional Kalman state x as a smoothed estimate of the baseline. Each bar we observe the current baseline z.
The filter adjusts its trust using the Kalman gain K = P / (P + R) and updates:
x := x + K*(z − x), then P := (1 − K)*P + Q.
Q (process noise): Higher Q → expects faster change → tracks turns quicker (less smoothing).
R (measurement noise): Higher R → trusts raw baseline less → smoother, steadier projection.
What you control:
Lead (how many bars forward to draw).
Kalman Q/R (visual smoothness vs. responsiveness).
Toggle the line on/off if you prefer a minimal chart.
Important: The predictive line extends the baseline, not price. It’s a visual timing aid—don’t automate off it.
How to use (step-by-step)
Keep the chart clean and use a standard OHLC/candlestick chart.
Read the regime: Prefer trades with green/red baseline (trendStrong = true).
Check scores on bar close:
Take Long 100 / Short 0 or Long 75 / Short 0 when the chart shows a tidy pullback re-engaging the cloud/baseline.
Mirror the logic for shorts.
Confirm location: If price is > ~1.5 ATR from its reference pivot, let it come back—avoid chasing.
Set alerts: Add an alert on Long Ready or Short Ready; these fire on closed bars only.
Risk management: Use ATR-buffered stops beyond the recent pivot; target fixed-R multiples (e.g., 1.5–3.0R). Manage the trade with the baseline/cloud if you trail.
Best-practice playbook (quick rules)
Green light: 100/0 (best) or 75/0 (good) on bar close in a colored (non-gray) regime.
Location first: Prefer entries near the baseline/cloud right after a pullback, not far above/below it.
Avoid mixed signals: Skip 75/25 and anything with opposition while the baseline is gray.
Use the yellow line with discretion: It helps you see rhythm; it’s not a signal source.
Timeframes & tuning (practical defaults)
Intraday indices/FX (5m–15m): Demand 100/0 in chop; allow 75/0 when ADX is awake and pullback is clean.
Crypto intraday (15m–1h): Prefer 100/0; 75/0 on the first pullback after a regime turn.
Swing (1h–4h/D1): 75/0 is often sufficient; 100/0 is excellent (fewer but cleaner signals).
If choppy: raise ADX threshold, raise the readiness bar (insist on 100/0), or lengthen the RSI slope window.
What makes FlowScape different
Energy-first regime filter: ATR-normalized LR slope + ADX gate yields a consistent read of trend quality across symbols and timeframes.
Location-aware entries: ATR-scaled pivot proximity discourages mid-air chases, encouraging pullback timing.
Separation of concerns: The predictive line is visual-only, while scores/alerts are confirmed on close for non-repainting behavior.
One simple score per side: A single 0–100 readiness figure is easier to tune than juggling multiple indicators.
Transparency & limitations
Scores are coarse by design (25-point blocks). They’re a gatekeeper, not a promise of outcomes.
Pivots confirm after right-side bars, so structure signals appear after swings form (non-repainting by design).
Avoid using non-standard chart types (Heikin Ashi, Renko, Range, etc.) for signals; use a clean, standard chart.
No lookahead, no higher-timeframe requests; alerts fire on closed bars only.
ADX with Shaded ZoneThe ADX with Shaded Zone indicator is a momentum-based tool that visualizes trend strength using the Average Directional Index (ADX) along with the +DI and -DI lines. This indicator enhances the traditional ADX setup by adding a shaded zone between ADX levels 20 and 25, helping traders easily identify the transition area between non-trending and trending market conditions.
It plots:
+DI (Green): Positive Directional Indicator
−DI (Red): Negative Directional Indicator
ADX (Blue): Measures the strength of the trend
Shaded Zone: Highlights the indecisive range where ADX is below 25 (gray background between levels 20 and 25)
⚙️ How to Use:
✅ Trend Identification:
ADX < 20: Weak or no trend. Avoid trend-following strategies.
ADX 20–25 (Shaded Zone): Transition zone. Potential trend forming — stay cautious.
ADX > 25: Stronger trend. Favor trend-following strategies.
✅ Direction Confirmation:
If +DI > -DI and ADX > 25 → Uptrend confirmation.
If -DI > +DI and ADX > 25 → Downtrend confirmation.
Crossovers between +DI and -DI can be used as early signals.
✅ Shaded Zone Use:
The gray shaded area helps visually filter out low-trend strength conditions.
Useful for trend traders to wait before entering until ADX breaks above 25.
Donchian Trend Ribbon (Gradient)Donchian Trend Ribbon (Gradient) Indicator
The Donchian Trend Ribbon (Gradient) uses Donchian Channels to visualize trend direction, strength, and market phases. Columns with varying colors and intensity help traders quickly assess trends.
Key Components:
Green Columns (Bullish):
Appear when price is above the upper Donchian Channel boundary.
Bright green in the top zone (25-50): Strong bullish trend.
Darker green in the lower zone (0-25): Weak/moderate bullish trend.
A full-height bright green column indicates a very strong upward move.
Red Columns (Bearish):
Appear when price is below the lower Donchian Channel boundary.
Bright red in the top zone (25-50): Strong bearish trend.
Darker red in the lower zone (0-25): Weak/moderate bearish trend.
A full-height bright red column indicates a very strong downward move.
Black Columns (Neutral):
Indicate no trend or market consolidation.
Signal to wait for trend emergence.
Expanding Steps:
Steps expanding downward from the upper edge (50) suggest diminishing momentum.
Steps expanding upward from the lower edge (0) indicate growing trend strength.
Methods of Use:
Identify Trends: Green (buy) or red (sell) columns in the top zone (25-50) signal strong trends.
Assess Strength: Bright colors = strong trends, darker colors = weaker trends. Full-height bright columns indicate very strong moves.
Neutral Phases: Black columns suggest waiting for a trend.
Example Strategy:
Buy when green columns appear in the 25-50 range with bright intensity.
Sell when red columns appear in the 25-50 range with bright intensity.
Exit positions if columns turn black or darker-colored.
FX Meter ScriptA while ago, we wrote* about the usefulness of using a currency strength meter and how you can build one from scratch.
See here: www.globalprime.com.au
Now we've taken this little project to the next level by visually spotting, via color signals in a dashboard and alerts, when a potential new trend might be developing in a currency pair.
*It's critical that you first read that article before you jump into reading this one or else you could get easily lost.
The script gives a trigger every time two currencies show diverging flows via opposing moving average slopes.
The signals originate from a first chart where currency indexes can be found, calculated through a formula, in various thin lines. Then a moving average to each currency index is applied so that it can smooth out the lines (what I call Micro moving averages – thicker lines -) and is usually a 4-5 period MA, with the key input to pay attention being the slope. One can perform their own tests on what works best for their particular trading style. The smaller the period in the moving average, the more responsive to changes in biases but the downside is that you will get a greater number of false moves. In the windows below the 1st chart, the stochRSI is calculated for each currency index (these values originate from the currency index and not from the applied MA). By default, a 25-period is applied to both RSI and Stoch length.
A 2nd chart that looks at the same logic is also accounted for to build this script, but instead of checking the micro trend, it applies a 25MA to the currency index, so it looks at what I call the slope of the macro trend. In this case, by default, a 125-period is applied to both RSI and Stoch length.
We had in mind to transition from just eye-balling and monitoring these charts manually to build a script via Tradingview that makes calculations real time (whenever the change in the moving average slope first occurs, and not when the bar/line closes), so that one can decide whether or not its a signal worth trading as part of a new trend emerging. Note, this is not so much a signal-triggering indicator but rather a tool to constantly be on the lookout monitoring what currencies might start to develop trends.
The actual script consists of a dashboard with different colored rectangles being triggered depending on the quality of the signal.
We will be happy to discuss it further with anyone who is interested in exploiting all the benefits that it can offer.
The way you add the script into your Tradingview chart is by first copy everything in the txt file. Then go to Pine editor (bottom middle-left) in your tradingview chart, delete everything there, then Paste the script. Then click Add to Chart (top right of the pine editor).
Note, you should add via the Anchored Text function the following list of pairs below, in this alphabetic order, on the right-hand side of the chart, as demonstrated above:
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
CADJPY
EURAUD
EURJPY
EURCAD
EURNZD
EURGBP
EURUSD
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPJPY
GBPNZD
GBPUSD
NZDCAD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
There are only 2 rules for the script to trigger a signal (see below). However, as I will elaborate further down, there are up to 6 different colors we can grade a signal
RULE 1 -> 2 moving averages, which are a calculation applied to a currency index as shown in the micro trend above, exhibit slopes in the opposite direction.
RULE 2 -> The Stoch RSI cannot be in overbought conditions if the slope of the moving average points higher or in oversold if the slope points lower.
Note 1: Even if the chart is a 60m timeframe by default (can be changed to any timeframe(, one gets the signal the moment the change of slope is identified, which means the indicator monitors changes in price tick by tick, and not on a candle close, otherwise one would get the trigger too late.
As an example of the highest-graded signal triggering (in green), a few hours ago we were given the visual cue that GBPCAD was experiencing a change of behavior. If we crosscheck the time the green-colored trigger was given with the actual GBPCAD chart, this is what we can observe. The pair is 30p higher since the trigger.
HOW TO SETUP ALERTS
One can easily setup a notification window each time the above rules are met, for example, if the EUR MA slope changes to bullish, and the AUD MA slope changes to bearish, and none of the 2 currency index values corresponding to these 2 moving averages (EUR and AUD) show a stoch RSI in overbought (above 80) in the case of the EUR, or oversold (below 20) in the case of the AUD, then the notification pop up would show a customized line: Long EURAUD
Note 1: Recording the slope of the macro moving average, which is usually a 25period MA applied to the currency index, is not included as part of the rules to trigger a signal, but it is taken into account to grade the quality of each signal.
Note 2: I recommend each signal to be triggered once or if you prefer, simply monitor the chart visually on the change of colors via the dashboard. The calculation resets and can appear again the moment that the slope changes to the opposite direction, so it’s a very dynamic indicator that will alert you the second a pair of currencies starts trending.
Note 3: When the signal is triggered, the indicator draws a colored rectangle. Each signal notification should be colored based on the following logic below.
LOGIC TO QUALIFY SIGNALS
-> Any long micro position with Macro MA in full agreement (ie/ Long EURAUD, Macro EUR up, Macro AUD down) is highlighted with green color
-> Any long micro position with macro moving averages in partial agreement (for example Long EURAUD, Macro EUR up AUD up) is highlighted with blue color
-> Any long micro position with macro moving averages in full disagreement (for example Long EURAUD, Macro EUR down AUD up) is highlighted with magenta color
-> Any short micro position with macro moving averages in full agreement (for example Short EURAUD, Macro EUR down AUD up) is highlighted with red color
-> Any short micro position with macro moving averages in partial agreement (for example Short EURAUD, Macro EUR up AUD up) is highlighted with orange color
-> Any short micro position with macro moving averages in full disagreement (for example Short EURAUD, Macro EUR up AUD down) is highlighted with purple color
PARAMETERS IN THE SCRIPT SETTINGS
Overbought/oversold: One can modify the stoch RSI level from which the indicator considers the value to be in overbought or oversold conditions. As a rule of thumb, consider 20/30 for oversold and 70/80 for oversold.
Slopes micro/macro MAs: One can edit the slope of the micro MA period (rule of thumb 4-5) and the macro MA (by default 25).
Value StochRSI: The default inputs are K 3, D 3, RSI Length 25, Stoch Length 25 for the micro and 125 period for the macro.
Change colors: One can edit the assigned colors in the signals dashboard.
Timeframe applied: The indicator has the flexibility to be applied to any timeframe, not just the 60m by default. Simply change the timeframe temporality.
CURRENCY INDEXES FORMULAS
It is the responsibility of the user to keep the values of the indexes updated. Find a recent sample below, as per values in early April. What this means is that at least once a week, in order to not let the values outdated, you should update the script with the latest valuations in the denominator.
NZD INDEX -> FX_IDC:NZDAUD/0.96+FX:NZDJPY/75.81+FX:NZDUSD/0.68+FX_IDC:NZDEUR/0.6+FX_IDC:NZDGBP/0.52+FX:NZDCHF/0.69+FX:NZDCAD/0.9
EUR INDEX -> FX:EURUSD/1.13+FX:EURJPY/125.5+FX:EURGBP/0.87+FX:EURCHF/1.135+FX:EURCAD/1.49+FX:EURNZD/1.655+FX:EURAUD/1.59
JPY INDEX -> 1/(FX:USDJPY/110.5+FX:EURJPY/125.5+FX:AUDJPY/79+FX:NZDJPY/75.5+FX:GBPJPY/144.5+FX:CHFJPY/110.5+FX:CADJPY/84)
USD INDEX -> FX_IDC:USDEUR/0.88+FX:USDJPY/110.5+FX_IDC:USDGBP/0.77+FX:USDCHF+FX:USDCAD/1.315+FX_IDC:USDNZD/1.46+FX_IDC:USDAUD/1.4
CAD INDEX-> FX_IDC:CADAUD/1.07+FX_IDC:CADNZD/1.11+FX:CADJPY/84.27+FX_IDC:CADUSD/0.76+FX_IDC:CADEUR/0.67+FX:CADCHF/0.76+FX_IDC:CADGBP/0.58
GBP INDEX -> FX:GBPAUD/1.83+FX:GBPNZD/1.91+FX:GBPJPY/144.5+FX_IDC:GBPEUR/1.15+FX:GBPCHF/1.31+FX:GBPUSD/1.31+FX:GBPCAD/1.71
Remember, I have provided a manual on how to build a currency strength meter. That’s what you will need to do first if you want to obtain the actual currency indexes other than just the indicator, which is just the visual cue to get you alerted when the slopes turn.
Once you’ve created your indexes via tradingview, you then apply a moving average to each index. Then apply the stochrsi 25 period to each index. For the macro trend, I make the same calculations, but the period of the MA is 25 instead of 4, while the stoch rsi is 125 periods vs 25 periods.
FINAL NOTE
This is a tool that should be interpreted as visual assistance, via the dashboard, to get that first cue when opposing micro slopes via the FX meter occur. However, you still need to check the technical context of the pair (levels marked, proj reached, etc.) but that first cue is a major time saver to constantly spot what's trending in FX. The permutations u can play with, as part of this script, are significant. You can tweak the timeframes you use, the periods of the moving averages, etc. I find the micro and macro trend combos when either a green or red signals is triggered the most reliable, with positions to be exploited via 15m and hourly under the right technical context.
ADX + Volume Strategy### Strategy Description: ADX and Volume-Based Trading Strategy
This strategy is designed to identify strong market trends using the **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and confirm trading signals with **Volume**. The idea behind the strategy is to enter trades only when the market shows a strong trend (as indicated by ADX) and when the price movement is supported by high trading volume. This combination helps filter out weaker signals and provides more reliable entries into positions.
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX is a technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend, regardless of its direction (up or down).
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to determine whether the market is trending strongly. If ADX is above a certain threshold (default is 25), it indicates that a strong trend is present.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates the strength of the upward price movement.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates the strength of the downward price movement.
- ADX does not indicate the direction of the trend but confirms that a trend exists. DI+ and DI- are used to determine the direction.
2. **Volume**:
- **Purpose**: Volume is a key indicator for confirming the strength of a price movement. High volume suggests that a large number of market participants are supporting the movement, making it more likely to continue.
- **Usage**: The strategy compares the current volume to the 20-period moving average of the volume. The trade signal is confirmed if the current volume is greater than the average volume by a specified **Volume Multiplier** (default multiplier is 1.5). This ensures that the trade is supported by strong market participation.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions:**
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default is 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, signaling that the market is trending upward.
- The **current volume** is greater than the 20-period average volume multiplied by the **Volume Multiplier** (e.g., 1.5), indicating that the upward price movement is backed by sufficient market activity.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default is 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, signaling that the market is trending downward.
- The **current volume** is greater than the 20-period average volume multiplied by the **Volume Multiplier** (e.g., 1.5), indicating that the downward price movement is backed by strong selling activity.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when the opposite signal appears:
- **For long positions**: Close when the short conditions are met (ADX still above the threshold, DI- > DI+, and the volume condition holds).
- **For short positions**: Close when the long conditions are met (ADX still above the threshold, DI+ > DI-, and the volume condition holds).
### Parameters:
- **ADX Period**: The period used to calculate ADX (default is 14). This controls how sensitive the ADX is to price movements.
- **ADX Threshold**: The minimum ADX value required for the strategy to consider the market trend as strong (default is 25). Higher values focus on stronger trends.
- **Volume Multiplier**: This parameter adjusts how much higher the current volume needs to be compared to the 20-period moving average for the signal to be valid. A value of 1.5 means the current volume must be 50% higher than the average volume.
### Example Trade Flow:
1. **Long Trade Example**:
- ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
- DI+ > DI-, confirming that the trend direction is upward.
- The current volume is 50% higher than the 20-period average volume (multiplied by 1.5).
- **Action**: Enter a long position.
2. **Short Trade Example**:
- ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
- DI- > DI+, confirming that the trend direction is downward.
- The current volume is 50% higher than the 20-period average volume.
- **Action**: Enter a short position.
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend Filtering**: The strategy ensures that trades are only taken when the market is trending strongly (confirmed by ADX) and that the price movement is supported by high volume, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
- **Volume Confirmation**: Using volume as confirmation provides an additional layer of reliability, as volume spikes often accompany sustained price moves.
- **Dual Signal Confirmation**: Both trend strength (ADX) and volume conditions must be met for a trade, making the strategy more robust.
### Weaknesses of the Strategy:
- **Limited Effectiveness in Range-Bound Markets**: Since the strategy relies on strong trends, it may underperform in sideways or non-trending markets where ADX stays below the threshold.
- **Lagging Nature of ADX**: ADX is a lagging indicator, which means that it may confirm the trend after it has already begun, potentially leading to late entries.
- **Volume Requirement**: In low-volume markets, the volume multiplier condition may not be met often, leading to fewer trade opportunities.
### Customization:
- **Adjust the ADX Threshold**: You can raise the threshold if you want to focus only on very strong trends, or lower it to capture moderate trends.
- **Adjust the Volume Multiplier**: You can change the multiplier to be more or less strict. A higher multiplier (e.g., 2.0) will require a stronger volume spike to confirm the signal, while a lower multiplier (e.g., 1.2) will allow more trades with weaker volume confirmation.
### Summary:
This ADX and Volume strategy is ideal for traders who want to follow strong trends while ensuring that the trend is supported by high trading volume. By combining a trend strength filter (ADX) and volume confirmation, the strategy aims to increase the probability of entering profitable trades while reducing the number of false signals. However, it may underperform in range-bound markets or in markets with low volume.
Trend Following ADX + Parabolic SAR### Strategy Description: Trend Following using **ADX** and **Parabolic SAR**
This strategy is designed to follow market trends using two popular indicators: **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and **Parabolic SAR**. The strategy attempts to enter trades when the market shows a strong trend (using ADX) and confirms the trend direction using the Parabolic SAR. Here's a breakdown:
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction.
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to confirm that the market is trending. When ADX is above a certain threshold (e.g., 25), it indicates a strong trend.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates upward movement strength.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates downward movement strength.
2. **Parabolic SAR**:
- **Purpose**: Parabolic SAR is a trend-following indicator used to identify potential reversals in the price direction.
- **Usage**: It provides specific price points above or below which the strategy confirms buy or sell signals.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions**:
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, indicating the upward trend is stronger than the downward.
- The price is above the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the upward trend.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, indicating the downward trend is stronger than the upward.
- The price is below the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the downward trend.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when an opposite signal is detected.
- For example, if a long position is open and the conditions for a short position are met, the long position is closed, and a short position is opened.
### Parameters:
1. **ADX Period**: Defines the length of the period for the ADX calculation (default: 14).
2. **ADX Threshold**: The minimum value of ADX to confirm a strong trend (default: 25).
3. **Parabolic SAR Start**: The initial step for the SAR (default: 0.02).
4. **Parabolic SAR Increment**: The step increment for SAR (default: 0.02).
5. **Parabolic SAR Max**: The maximum step for SAR (default: 0.2).
### Example Trade Flow:
#### **Long Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI+ > DI-, indicating the market is trending upward.
3. The price is above the Parabolic SAR, confirming the upward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a long (buy) position.
5. Exit the long position when a short signal is triggered (i.e., DI- > DI+, price below Parabolic SAR).
#### **Short Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI- > DI+, indicating the market is trending downward.
3. The price is below the Parabolic SAR, confirming the downward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a short (sell) position.
5. Exit the short position when a long signal is triggered (i.e., DI+ > DI-, price above Parabolic SAR).
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend-Following**: It performs well in markets with strong trends, whether upward or downward.
- **Dual Confirmation**: The combination of ADX and Parabolic SAR reduces false signals by ensuring both trend strength and direction are considered before entering a trade.
### Weaknesses:
- **Range-Bound Markets**: This strategy may perform poorly in choppy, non-trending markets because both ADX and SAR are trend-following indicators.
- **Lagging Nature**: Since both ADX and SAR are lagging indicators, the strategy may enter trades after the trend has already started, potentially missing early profits.
### Customization:
- **ADX Threshold**: You can increase the threshold if you only want to trade in very strong trends, or lower it to capture more moderate trends.
- **SAR Parameters**: Adjusting the SAR `start`, `increment`, and `max` values will make the Parabolic SAR more or less sensitive to price changes.
### Summary:
This strategy combines the ADX and Parabolic SAR to take advantage of strong market trends. By confirming both trend strength (ADX) and trend direction (Parabolic SAR), it aims to enter high-probability trades in trending markets while minimizing false signals. However, it may struggle in sideways or non-trending markets.
For Educational purposes only !!!
PubLibTrendLibrary "PubLibTrend"
trend, multi-part trend, double trend and multi-part double trend conditions for indicator and strategy development
rlut()
return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dt()
downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ut()
uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt()
return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dtop()
double top condition
Returns: bool
dbot()
double bottom condition
Returns: bool
rlut_1p()
1-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_2p()
2-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_3p()
3-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_4p()
4-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_5p()
5-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_6p()
6-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_7p()
7-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_8p()
8-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_9p()
9-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_10p()
10-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_11p()
11-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_12p()
12-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_13p()
13-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_14p()
14-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_15p()
15-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_16p()
16-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_17p()
17-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_18p()
18-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_19p()
19-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_20p()
20-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_21p()
21-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_22p()
22-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_23p()
23-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_24p()
24-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_25p()
25-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_26p()
26-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_27p()
27-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_28p()
28-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_29p()
29-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rlut_30p()
30-part return line uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_1p()
1-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_2p()
2-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_3p()
3-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_4p()
4-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_5p()
5-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_6p()
6-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_7p()
7-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_8p()
8-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_9p()
9-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_10p()
10-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_11p()
11-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_12p()
12-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_13p()
13-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_14p()
14-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_15p()
15-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_16p()
16-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_17p()
17-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_18p()
18-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_19p()
19-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_20p()
20-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_21p()
21-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_22p()
22-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_23p()
23-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_24p()
24-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_25p()
25-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_26p()
26-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_27p()
27-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_28p()
28-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_29p()
29-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dt_30p()
30-part downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_1p()
1-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_2p()
2-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_3p()
3-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_4p()
4-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_5p()
5-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_6p()
6-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_7p()
7-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_8p()
8-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_9p()
9-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_10p()
10-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_11p()
11-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_12p()
12-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_13p()
13-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_14p()
14-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_15p()
15-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_16p()
16-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_17p()
17-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_18p()
18-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_19p()
19-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_20p()
20-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_21p()
21-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_22p()
22-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_23p()
23-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_24p()
24-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_25p()
25-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_26p()
26-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_27p()
27-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_28p()
28-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_29p()
29-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ut_30p()
30-part uptrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_1p()
1-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_2p()
2-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_3p()
3-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_4p()
4-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_5p()
5-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_6p()
6-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_7p()
7-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_8p()
8-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_9p()
9-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_10p()
10-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_11p()
11-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_12p()
12-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_13p()
13-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_14p()
14-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_15p()
15-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_16p()
16-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_17p()
17-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_18p()
18-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_19p()
19-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_20p()
20-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_21p()
21-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_22p()
22-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_23p()
23-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_24p()
24-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_25p()
25-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_26p()
26-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_27p()
27-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_28p()
28-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_29p()
29-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
rldt_30p()
30-part return line downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dut()
double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt()
double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_1p()
1-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_2p()
2-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_3p()
3-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_4p()
4-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_5p()
5-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_6p()
6-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_7p()
7-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_8p()
8-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_9p()
9-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_10p()
10-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_11p()
11-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_12p()
12-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_13p()
13-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_14p()
14-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_15p()
15-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_16p()
16-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_17p()
17-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_18p()
18-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_19p()
19-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_20p()
20-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_21p()
21-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_22p()
22-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_23p()
23-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_24p()
24-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_25p()
25-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_26p()
26-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_27p()
27-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_28p()
28-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_29p()
29-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
dut_30p()
30-part double uptrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_1p()
1-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_2p()
2-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_3p()
3-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_4p()
4-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_5p()
5-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_6p()
6-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_7p()
7-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_8p()
8-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_9p()
9-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_10p()
10-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_11p()
11-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_12p()
12-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_13p()
13-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_14p()
14-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_15p()
15-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_16p()
16-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_17p()
17-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_18p()
18-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_19p()
19-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_20p()
20-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_21p()
21-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_22p()
22-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_23p()
23-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_24p()
24-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_25p()
25-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_26p()
26-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_27p()
27-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_28p()
28-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_29p()
29-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
ddt_30p()
30-part double downtrend condition
Returns: bool
Parabolic SAR with the ADX overlayThe following indicator and chart pattern is based on a twist from Welles Wilder's parabolic stop and reverse . This is a trend following system which is essentially a dynamic trailing stop loss for longs and shorts. The system is often criticized for it's poor performance in choppy rangebound markets so people often combine it with other signals that attempt to identify a "trend" the ADX is a popular indicator with three indicators, the DI+ "Positive Directional Indicator" the DI- "Negative Directional Indicator" and then a combination of the two, the ADX "Average Directional Indicator". Generally speaking, if the DI+ is above the DI- and the ADX is greater than 25 then we are in a positive trending market. If the DI+ is less than the DI- and the ADX is greater than 25 then we are in a negative trending market. If the ADX is less than 25 then there is no trend in place and we are in a range bound "choppy market".
So, I created this chart to show when the ADX is > 25 (or you can enter your own number) and the DI+ is > DI- then the background will be green. Vice versa, when the ADX is >25 and the DI+ is < DI- then we are in a negative trending market and the background color will be red. If the ADX is < 25 (or whatever you choose) then we are in a choppy 'range-bound" market.
Regarding the ParSAR. Pay attention to the "+" marks. they indicate whether we are bullish or bearish. When we cross through a + then we revert to the opposite. "Stop And Reverse". They are a simple calculation of a starting percentage, an incremental increase in that percentage, and a max percentage increase. If you want your system to trade less, decrease the "maximum" If you want it to trade more, increase the maximum.
Tinker around with these and you might find a healthy strategy you can trade on.
If you add Take Profit Targets and Stop Loss Targets, this is an even more productive strategy. Try it out on BINANCE:ETHUSDT with a 2hr time horizon and 0.02, 0.023, 0.2.
FOTSI - Open sourceI WOULD LIKE TO SPECIFY TWO THINGS:
- The indicator was absolutely not designed by me, I do not take any credit and much less I want them, I am just making this fantastic indicator open source and accessible to all
- The script code was not recycled from other indicators, but was created from 0 following the theory behind it to the letter, thus avoiding copyright infringement
- Advices and improvements are accepted, as having very little programming experience in Pine Script I consider this work still rough and slow
WHAT IS THE FOTSI?
The FOTSI is an oscillator that measures the relative strength of the individual currencies that make up the 28 major Forex exchanges.
By identifying the currencies that are in the overbought (+50) and oversold (-50) areas, it is possible to anticipate the correction of a currency pair following a strong trend.
THE THEORY BEHIND
1) At the base of everything is the 1-period momentum (close-open) of the single currency pairs that contain a certain currency. For example, the momentum of the USD currency is composed of all the exchange rates that contain the US dollar inside it: mom_usd = - mom_eurusd - mom_gbpusd + mom_usdchf + mom_usdjpy - mom_audusd + mom_usdcad - mom_nzdusd. Where the base currency is in second position, the momentum is subtracted instead of adding it.
2) The IST formula is applied to the momentum of the individual currencies obtained. In this way we get an oscillator that oscillates between 0 and its overbought and oversold areas. The area between +25 and -25 is an area in which we can consider the movements of individual currencies to be neutral.
3) The TSI is nothing more than a double smoothing on the momentum of individual currencies. This particularity makes the indicator very reactive, minimizing the delays of the trend reversal.
HOW TO USE
1) A currency is identified that is in the overbought (+50) or oversold (-50) area. Example GBP = 50
2) The second currency is identified as the one most opposite to the first. Example USD = -25
3) The currency pair consisting of the two currencies opens. So GBP / USD
4) Considering that GBP is oversold, we anticipate its future devaluation. So in this case we are short on GBP / SUD. Otherwise if GBP had been oversold (-50) we expect its future valuation and therefore we enter long.
5) It is used on the H1, H4 and D1 timeframes
6) Closing conditions: the position on the 50-period exponential moving average is split / the position at target on the 100-period exponential moving average is closed
7) Stoploss: it is recommended not to use it, if you want to use it it is equivalent to 5 times the ATR on the reference timeframe
8) Position sizing: go very slow! Being a counter-trend strategy, it is very risky to position yourself heavily. Use common sense in everything!
9) To insert the alerts that warn you of an overbought and oversold condition, it is necessary to enter the signals called "Overbought Signal" and "Oversold Signal" for each chart used, in the specific Trading View window. like me using multiple charts in the same window.
I hope you enjoy my work. For any questions write in the comments.
Thanks <3
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENGO A PRECISARE DUE COSE:
- L'indicatore non è stato assolutamente ideato da me, non mi assumo nessun merito e tanto meno li voglio, io sto solo rendendo questo fantastico indicatore open source ed accessibile a tutti
- Il codice dello script non è stato riciclato da altri indicatori, ma è stato creato da 0 seguendo alla lettere la teoria che sta alla sua base, evitando così di violare il copyright
- Si accettano consigli e migliorie, visto che avendo pochissima esperienza di programmazione in Pine Script considero questo lavoro ancora grezzo e lento
COS'È IL FOTSI?
Il FOTSI è un oscillatore che misura la forza relativa delle singole valute che compongono i 28 cambi major del Forex.
Individuando le valute che si trovano nelle aree di ipercomprato (+50) ed ipervenduto (-50) , è possibile anticipare la correzione di una coppia valutaria al seguito di un forte trend.
LA TEORIA ALLA BASE
1) Alla base di tutto c'è il momentum ad 1 periodo (close-open) delle singole coppie valutarie che contengono una determinata valuta. Ad esempio il momentum della valuta USD è composto da tutti i cambi che contengono il dollaro americano al suo interno: mom_usd = - mom_eurusd - mom_gbpusd + mom_usdchf + mom_usdjpy - mom_audusd + mom_usdcad - mom_nzdusd . Ove la valuta base si trova in seconda posizione si sottrae il momentum al posto che sommarlo.
2) Si applica la formula del TSI ai momentum delle singole valute ottenute. In questo modo otteniamo un oscillatore che oscilla tra lo 0 e le sue aree di ipercomprato ed ipervenduto. L'area compresa tra +25 e -25 è un area in cui possiamo considerare neutri i movimenti delle singole valute.
3) Il TSI non è altro che un doppio smoothing sul momentum delle singole valute. Questa particolarità rende l'indicatore molto reattivo, minimizzando i ritardi dell'inversione del trend.
COME SI USA
1) Si individua una valuta che si trova nell'area di ipercomprato (+50) o ipervenduto (-50) . Esempio GBP = 50
2) Si individua come seconda valuta quella più opposta alla prima. Esempio USD = -25
3) Si apre la coppia di valuta composta dalle due valute. Quindi GBP/USD
4) Considerando che GBP è in fase di ipervenduto prevediamo una sua futura svalutazione. Quindi in questo caso entriamo short su GBP/SUD. Diversamente se GBP fosse stato in fase di ipervenduto (-50) ci aspettiamo una sua futura valutazione e quindi entriamo long.
5) Si usa sui timeframe H1, H4 e D1
6) Condizioni di chiusura: si smezza la posizione sulla media mobile esponenziale a 50 periodi / si chiude la posizione a target sulla media mobile esponenziale a 100 periodi
7) Stoploss: è consigliato non usarlo, nel caso lo si voglia utilizzare esso equivale a 5 volte l'ATR sul timeframe di riferimento
8) Position sizing: andateci molto piano! Essendo una strategia contro trend è molto rischioso posizionarsi in modo pesante. Usate il buonsenso in tutto!
9) Per inserire gli allert che ti avvertono di una condizione di ipercomprato ed ipervenduto, è necessario inserire dall'apposita finestra di Trading View i segnali denominati "Segnale di ipercomprato" ed "Segnale di ipervenduto" per ogni grafico che si usa, nel caso come me che si utilizzano più grafici nella stessa finestra.
Spero che possiate apprezzare il mio lavoro. Per qualsiasi domanda scrivete nei commenti.
Grazie<3
CT Reverse True Strength Indicator On ChartIntroducing the Caretakers “On Chart” Reverse True Strength Index.
According to Wikipedia….
“The True Strength Index (TSI) is a technical indicator used in the analysis of financial markets that attempts to show both trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions. It was first published William Blau in 1991.
The indicator uses moving averages of the underlying momentum of a financial instrument.
Momentum is considered a leading indicator of price movements, and a moving average characteristically lags behind price.
The TSI combines these characteristics to create an indication of price and direction more in sync with market turns than either momentum or moving average.”
The TSI has a normal range of values between +100 and -100.
Traditionally traders and analysts will consider:
Positives values above 25 to indicate an “overbought” condition
Negative values below -25 to indicate an “oversold” condition
I have reverse engineered the True Strength Index formula to derive 2 new functions.
1) The reverse TSI function is dual purpose which can be used to calculate….
The chart price at which the TSI will reach a particular TSI scale value.
The chart price at which the TSI will equal its previous value.
2) The reverse TSI signal cross function can be used to calculate the chart price at which the TSI will cross its signal line.
I have employed these functions here to return the price levels where the True Strength Index would equal :
Upper alert level ( default 25 )
Zero-Line
Lower alert level ( default -25 )
Previous TSI (eq) value
TSI signal line
In this “On Chart” version of the reverse True Strength Index the crossover levels are displayed both as lines on the chart and via an optional info-box with choice of user selected info.
Chart Line Colors
Upper alert level... ( Fuchsia )
Zero-Line............ ( White )
Lower alert level... ( Aqua )
TSI (eq)...............( TSI (eq) > close..Orange, TSI (eq) < close..Lime )
TSI signal line........( Signal Cross Line > Close..Aqua, Signal Cross Line < Close..Fuchsia )
How to interpret the displayed prices returned from the TSI scale zero line and upper and lower alert levels.
Closing exactly at the given price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the scale value.
Closing above the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross above the scale value.
Closing below the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross below the scale value.
How to interpret the displayed price returned from the TSI (eq)
Closing exactly at the price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the previous TSI value.
Closing above the price will cause the True Strength Index value to increase.
Closing below the price will cause the True Strength Index value to decrease.
How to interpret the displayed price returned from the TSI signal line crossover.
Closing exactly at the given price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the signal line.
Closing above the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross above the signal line.
Closing below the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross below the signal line.
Common methods to derive signals from the TSI :
Zero-line crossovers
When the CMO crosses above the zero-line, a buy signal is generated.
When the CMO crosses below the zero-line, a sell signal is generated.
“Overbought” and “Oversold” crossovers
When the SMI crosses below -25 and then moves back above it, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses above +25 and then moves back below it, a sell signal is generated.
What Does the True Strength Index (TSI) Tell You?
The indicator is primarily used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in an asset's price, spot divergence, identify trend direction and changes via the zero-line, and highlight short-term price momentum with signal line crossovers.
Since the TSI is based on price movements, oversold and overbought levels will vary by the asset being traded. Some stocks may reach +30 and -30 before tending to see price reversals, while another stock may reverse near +20 and -20.
Mark extreme TSI levels, on the asset being traded, to see where overbought and oversold is. Being oversold doesn't necessarily mean it is time to buy, and when an asset is overbought it doesn't necessarily mean it is time to sell. Traders will typically watch for other signals to trigger a trade decision. For example, they may wait for the price or TSI to start dropping before selling in overbought territory. Alternatively, they may wait for a signal line crossover.
Signal Line Crossovers
The true strength index has a signal line, which is usually a seven- to 13-period EMA of the TSI line. A signal line crossover occurs when the TSI line crosses the signal line. When the TSI crosses above the signal line from below, that may warrant a long position. When the TSI crosses below the signal line from above, that may warrant selling or short selling.
Signal line crossovers occur frequently, so should be utilized only in conjunction with other signals from the TSI. For example, buy signals may be favoured when the TSI is above the zero-line. Or sell signals may be favoured when the TSI is in overbought territory.
Zero-line Crossovers
The zero-line crossover is another signal the TSI generates. Price momentum is positive when the indicator is above zero and negative when it is below zero. Some traders use the zero-line for a directional bias. For example, a trader may decide only to enter a long position if the indicator is above its zero-line. Conversely, the trader would be bearish and only consider short positions if the indicator's value is below zero.
Breakouts and Divergence
Traders can use support and resistance levels created by the true strength index to identify breakouts and price momentum shifts. For instance, if the indicator breaks below a trendline, the price may see continued selling.
Divergence is another tool the TSI provides. If the price of an asset is moving higher, while the TSI is dropping, that is called bearish divergence and could result in a downside price move. If the TSI is rising while the price is falling, that could signal higher prices to come. This is called bullish divergence.
Divergence is a poor timing signal, so it should only be used in conjunction with other signals generated by the TSI or other technical indicators.
The Difference Between the True Strength Index (TSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Indicator.
The TSI is smoothing price changes to create a technical oscillator. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is measuring the separation between two moving averages. Both indicators are used in similar ways for trading purposes, yet they are not calculated the same and will provide different signals at different times.
The Limitations of Using the True Strength Index (TSI)
Many of the signals provided by the TSI will be false signals. That means the price action will be different than expected following a trade signal. For example, during an uptrend, the TSI may cross below the zero-line several times, but then the price proceeds higher even though the TSI indicates momentum has shifted down.
Signal line crossovers also occur so frequently that they may not provide a lot of trading benefit. Such signals need to be heavily filtered based on other elements of the indicator or through other forms of analysis. The TSI will also sometimes change direction without price changing direction, resulting in trade signals that look good on the TSI but continue to lose money based on price.
Divergence also tends to unreliable on the indicator. Divergence can last so long that it provides little insight into when a reversal will actually occur. Also, divergence isn't always present when price reversals actually do occur.
The TSI should only be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as price action analysis and other technical indicators.
This is not financial advice, use at your own risk.
CT Reverse True Strength IndicatorIntroducing the Caretakers Reverse True Strength Index.
According to Wikipedia….
“The True Strength Index (TSI) is a technical indicator used in the analysis of financial markets that attempts to show both trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions. It was first published William Blau in 1991.
The indicator uses moving averages of the underlying momentum of a financial instrument.
Momentum is considered a leading indicator of price movements, and a moving average characteristically lags behind price.
The TSI combines these characteristics to create an indication of price and direction more in sync with market turns than either momentum or moving average.”
The TSI has a normal range of values between +100 and -100.
Traditionally traders and analysts will consider:
Positives values above 25 to indicate an “overbought” condition
Negative values below -25 to indicate an “oversold” condition
I have reverse engineered the True Strength Index formula to derive 2 new functions.
The reverse TSI function is dual purpose which can be used to calculate….
The chart price at which the TSI will reach a particular TSI scale value.
The chart price at which the TSI will equal its previous value.
The reverse TSI signal cross function can be used to calculate the chart price at which the TSI will cross its signal line.
I have employed these functions here to return the price levels where the True Strength Index would equal :
Upper alert level ( default 25 )
Zero-Line
Lower alert level ( default -25 )
Previous TSI (eq) value.
TSI signal line
These crossover levels are displayed via an optional info-box with choice of user selected info.
How to interpret the displayed prices returned from the TSI scale zero line and upper and lower alert levels.
Closing exactly at the given price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the scale value.
Closing above the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross above the scale value.
Closing below the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross below the scale value.
How to interpret the displayed price returned from the TSI (eq)
Closing exactly at the price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the previous TSI value.
Closing above the price will cause the True Strength Index value to increase.
Closing below the price will cause the True Strength Index value to decrease.
How to interpret the displayed price returned from the TSI signal line crossover.
Closing exactly at the given price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the signal line.
Closing above the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross above the signal line.
Closing below the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross below the signal line.
Common methods to derive signals from the TSI :
Zero-line crossovers
When the CMO crosses above the zero-line, a buy signal is generated.
When the CMO crosses below the zero-line, a sell signal is generated.
“Overbought” and “Oversold” crossover
When the SMI crosses below -25 and then moves back above it, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses above +25 and then moves back below it, a sell signal is generated.
What Does the True Strength Index (TSI) Tell You?
The indicator is primarily used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in an asset's price, spot divergence, identify trend direction and changes via the zero-line, and highlight short-term price momentum with signal line crossovers.
Since the TSI is based on price movements, oversold and overbought levels will vary by the asset being traded. Some stocks may reach +30 and -30 before tending to see price reversals, while another stock may reverse near +20 and -20.
Mark extreme TSI levels, on the asset being traded, to see where overbought and oversold is. Being oversold doesn't necessarily mean it is time to buy, and when an asset is overbought it doesn't necessarily mean it is time to sell. Traders will typically watch for other signals to trigger a trade decision. For example, they may wait for the price or TSI to start dropping before selling in overbought territory. Alternatively, they may wait for a signal line crossover.
Signal Line Crossovers
The true strength index has a signal line, which is usually a seven- to 13-period EMA of the TSI line. A signal line crossover occurs when the TSI line crosses the signal line. When the TSI crosses above the signal line from below, that may warrant a long position. When the TSI crosses below the signal line from above, that may warrant selling or short selling.
Signal line crossovers occur frequently, so should be utilized only in conjunction with other signals from the TSI. For example, buy signals may be favoured when the TSI is above the zero-line. Or sell signals may be favoured when the TSI is in overbought territory.
Zero-line Crossovers
The zero-line crossover is another signal the TSI generates. Price momentum is positive when the indicator is above zero and negative when it is below zero. Some traders use the zero-line for a directional bias. For example, a trader may decide only to enter a long position if the indicator is above its zero-line. Conversely, the trader would be bearish and only consider short positions if the indicator's value is below zero.
Breakouts and Divergence
Traders can use support and resistance levels created by the true strength index to identify breakouts and price momentum shifts. For instance, if the indicator breaks below a trendline, the price may see continued selling.
Divergence is another tool the TSI provides. If the price of an asset is moving higher, while the TSI is dropping, that is called bearish divergence and could result in a downside price move. If the TSI is rising while the price is falling, that could signal higher prices to come. This is called bullish divergence.
Divergence is a poor timing signal, so it should only be used in conjunction with other signals generated by the TSI or other technical indicators.
The Difference Between the True Strength Index (TSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Indicator.
The TSI is smoothing price changes to create a technical oscillator. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is measuring the separation between two moving averages. Both indicators are used in similar ways for trading purposes, yet they are not calculated the same and will provide different signals at different times.
The Limitations of Using the True Strength Index (TSI)
Many of the signals provided by the TSI will be false signals. That means the price action will be different than expected following a trade signal. For example, during an uptrend, the TSI may cross below the zero-line several times, but then the price proceeds higher even though the TSI indicates momentum has shifted down.
Signal line crossovers also occur so frequently that they may not provide a lot of trading benefit. Such signals need to be heavily filtered based on other elements of the indicator or through other forms of analysis. The TSI will also sometimes change direction without price changing direction, resulting in trade signals that look good on the TSI but continue to lose money based on price.
Divergence also tends to unreliable on the indicator. Divergence can last so long that it provides little insight into when a reversal will actually occur. Also, divergence isn't always present when price reversals actually do occur.
The TSI should only be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as price action analysis and other technical indicators.
This is not financial advice, use at your own risk.
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
Fear and Greed Index [DunesIsland]The Fear and Greed Index is a sentiment indicator designed to measure the emotions driving the stock market, specifically investor fear and greed. Fear represents pessimism and caution, while greed reflects optimism and risk-taking. This indicator aggregates multiple market metrics to provide a comprehensive view of market sentiment, helping traders and investors gauge whether the market is overly fearful or excessively greedy.How It WorksThe Fear and Greed Index is calculated using four key market indicators, each capturing a different aspect of market sentiment:
Market Momentum (30% weight)
Measures how the S&P 500 (SPX) is performing relative to its 125-day simple moving average (SMA).
A higher value indicates that the market is trading well above its moving average, signaling greed.
Stock Price Strength (20% weight)
Calculates the net number of stocks hitting 52-week highs minus those hitting 52-week lows on the NYSE.
A greater number of net highs suggests strong market breadth and greed.
Put/Call Options (30% weight)
Uses the 5-day average of the put/call ratio.
A lower ratio (more call options being bought) indicates greed, as investors are betting on rising prices.
Market Volatility (20% weight)
Utilizes the VIX index, which measures market volatility.
Lower volatility is associated with greed, as investors are less fearful of large market swings.
Each component is normalized using a z-score over a 252-day lookback period (approximately one trading year) and scaled to a range of 0 to 100. The final Fear and Greed Index is a weighted average of these four components, with the weights specified above.Key FeaturesIndex Range: The index value ranges from 0 to 100:
0–25: Extreme Fear (red)
25–50: Fear (orange)
50–75: Neutral (yellow)
75–100: Greed (green)
Dynamic Plot Color: The plot line changes color based on the index value, visually indicating the current sentiment zone.
Reference Lines: Horizontal lines are plotted at 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 to represent the different sentiment levels: Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, and Extreme Greed.
How to Interpret
Low Values (0–25): Indicate extreme fear, which may suggest that the market is oversold and could be due for a rebound.
High Values (75–100): Indicate greed, which may signal that the market is overbought and could be at risk of a correction.
Neutral Range (25–75): Suggests a balanced market sentiment, neither overly fearful nor greedy.
This indicator is a valuable tool for contrarian investors, as extreme readings often precede market reversals. However, it should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for a well-rounded view of the market.
Market Zone Analyzer[BullByte]Understanding the Market Zone Analyzer
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1. Purpose of the Indicator
The Market Zone Analyzer is a Pine Script™ (version 6) indicator designed to streamline market analysis on TradingView. Rather than scanning multiple separate tools, it unifies four core dimensions—trend strength, momentum, price action, and market activity—into a single, consolidated view. By doing so, it helps traders:
• Save time by avoiding manual cross-referencing of disparate signals.
• Reduce decision-making errors that can arise from juggling multiple indicators.
• Gain a clear, reliable read on whether the market is in a bullish, bearish, or sideways phase, so they can more confidently decide to enter, exit, or hold a position.
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2. Why a Trader Should Use It
• Unified View: Combines all essential market dimensions into one easy-to-read score and dashboard, eliminating the need to piece together signals manually.
• Adaptability: Automatically adjusts its internal weighting for trend, momentum, and price action based on current volatility. Whether markets are choppy or calm, the indicator remains relevant.
• Ease of Interpretation: Outputs a simple “BULLISH,” “BEARISH,” or “SIDEWAYS” label, supplemented by an intuitive on-chart dashboard and an oscillator plot that visually highlights market direction.
• Reliability Features: Built-in smoothing of the net score and hysteresis logic (requiring consecutive confirmations before flips) minimize false signals during noisy or range-bound phases.
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3. Why These Specific Indicators?
This script relies on a curated set of well-established technical tools, each chosen for its particular strength in measuring one of the four core dimensions:
1. Trend Strength:
• ADX/DMI (Average Directional Index / Directional Movement Index): Measures how strong a trend is, and whether the +DI line is above the –DI line (bullish) or vice versa (bearish).
• Moving Average Slope (Fast MA vs. Slow MA): Compares a shorter-period SMA to a longer-period SMA; if the fast MA sits above the slow MA, it confirms an uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend.
• Ichimoku Cloud Differential (Senkou A vs. Senkou B): Provides a forward-looking view of trend direction; Senkou A above Senkou B signals bullishness, and the opposite signals bearishness.
2. Momentum:
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Identifies overbought (above its dynamically calculated upper bound) or oversold (below its lower bound) conditions; changes in RSI often precede price reversals.
• Stochastic %K: Highlights shifts in short-term momentum by comparing closing price to the recent high/low range; values above its upper band signal bullish momentum, below its lower band signal bearish momentum.
• MACD Histogram: Measures the difference between the MACD line and its signal line; a positive histogram indicates upward momentum, a negative histogram indicates downward momentum.
3. Price Action:
• Highest High / Lowest Low (HH/LL) Range: Over a defined lookback period, this captures breakout or breakdown levels. A closing price near the recent highs (with a positive MA slope) yields a bullish score, and near the lows (with a negative MA slope) yields a bearish score.
• Heikin-Ashi Doji Detection: Uses Heikin-Ashi candles to identify indecision or continuation patterns. A small Heikin-Ashi body (doji) relative to recent volatility is scored as neutral; a larger body in the direction of the MA slope is scored bullish or bearish.
• Candle Range Measurement: Compares each candle’s high-low range against its own dynamic band (average range ± standard deviation). Large candles aligning with the prevailing trend score bullish or bearish accordingly; unusually small candles can indicate exhaustion or consolidation.
4. Market Activity:
• Bollinger Bands Width (BBW): Measures the distance between BB upper and lower bands; wide bands indicate high volatility, narrow bands indicate low volatility.
• Average True Range (ATR): Quantifies average price movement (volatility). A sudden spike in ATR suggests a volatile environment, while a contraction suggests calm.
• Keltner Channels Width (KCW): Similar to BBW but uses ATR around an EMA. Provides a second layer of volatility context, confirming or contrasting BBW readings.
• Volume (with Moving Average): Compares current volume to its moving average ± standard deviation. High volume validates strong moves; low volume signals potential lack of conviction.
By combining these tools, the indicator captures trend direction, momentum strength, price-action nuances, and overall market energy, yielding a more balanced and comprehensive assessment than any single tool alone.
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4. What Makes This Indicator Stand Out
• Multi-Dimensional Analysis: Rather than relying on a lone oscillator or moving average crossover, it simultaneously evaluates trend, momentum, price action, and activity.
• Dynamic Weighting: The relative importance of trend, momentum, and price action adjusts automatically based on real-time volatility (Market Activity State). For example, in highly volatile conditions, trend and momentum signals carry more weight; in calm markets, price action signals are prioritized.
• Stability Mechanisms:
• Smoothing: The net score is passed through a short moving average, filtering out noise, especially on lower timeframes.
• Hysteresis: Both Market Activity State and the final bullish/bearish/sideways zone require two consecutive confirmations before flipping, reducing whipsaw.
• Visual Interpretation: A fully customizable on-chart dashboard displays each sub-indicator’s value, regime, score, and comment, all color-coded. The oscillator plot changes color to reflect the current market zone (green for bullish, red for bearish, gray for sideways) and shows horizontal threshold lines at +2, 0, and –2.
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5. Recommended Timeframes
• Short-Term (5 min, 15 min): Day traders and scalpers can benefit from rapid signals, but should enable smoothing (and possibly disable hysteresis) to reduce false whipsaws.
• Medium-Term (1 h, 4 h): Swing traders find a balance between responsiveness and reliability. Less smoothing is required here, and the default parameters (e.g., ADX length = 14, RSI length = 14) perform well.
• Long-Term (Daily, Weekly): Position traders tracking major trends can disable smoothing for immediate raw readings, since higher-timeframe noise is minimal. Adjust lookback lengths (e.g., increase adxLength, rsiLength) if desired for slower signals.
Tip: If you keep smoothing off, stick to timeframes of 1 h or higher to avoid excessive signal “chatter.”
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6. How Scoring Works
A. Individual Indicator Scores
Each sub-indicator is assigned one of three discrete scores:
• +1 if it indicates a bullish condition (e.g., RSI above its dynamically calculated upper bound).
• 0 if it is neutral (e.g., RSI between upper and lower bounds).
• –1 if it indicates a bearish condition (e.g., RSI below its dynamically calculated lower bound).
Examples of individual score assignments:
• ADX/DMI:
• +1 if ADX ≥ adxThreshold and +DI > –DI (strong bullish trend)
• –1 if ADX ≥ adxThreshold and –DI > +DI (strong bearish trend)
• 0 if ADX < adxThreshold (trend strength below threshold)
• RSI:
• +1 if RSI > RSI_upperBound
• –1 if RSI < RSI_lowerBound
• 0 otherwise
• ATR (as part of Market Activity):
• +1 if ATR > (ATR_MA + stdev(ATR))
• –1 if ATR < (ATR_MA – stdev(ATR))
• 0 otherwise
Each of the four main categories shares this same +1/0/–1 logic across their sub-components.
B. Category Scores
Once each sub-indicator reports +1, 0, or –1, these are summed within their categories as follows:
• Trend Score = (ADX score) + (MA slope score) + (Ichimoku differential score)
• Momentum Score = (RSI score) + (Stochastic %K score) + (MACD histogram score)
• Price Action Score = (Highest-High/Lowest-Low score) + (Heikin-Ashi doji score) + (Candle range score)
• Market Activity Raw Score = (BBW score) + (ATR score) + (KC width score) + (Volume score)
Each category’s summed value can range between –3 and +3 (for Trend, Momentum, and Price Action), and between –4 and +4 for Market Activity raw.
C. Market Activity State and Dynamic Weight Adjustments
Rather than contributing directly to the netScore like the other three categories, Market Activity determines how much weight to assign to Trend, Momentum, and Price Action:
1. Compute Market Activity Raw Score by summing BBW, ATR, KCW, and Volume individual scores (each +1/0/–1).
2. Bucket into High, Medium, or Low Activity:
• High if raw Score ≥ 2 (volatile market).
• Low if raw Score ≤ –2 (calm market).
• Medium otherwise.
3. Apply Hysteresis (if enabled): The state only flips after two consecutive bars register the same high/low/medium label.
4. Set Category Weights:
• High Activity: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Low Activity: Trend = 25 %, Momentum = 20 %, Price Action = 55 %.
• Medium Activity: Use the trader’s base weight inputs (e.g., Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 % by default).
D. Calculating the Net Score
5. Normalize Base Weights (so that the sum of Trend + Momentum + Price Action always equals 100 %).
6. Determine Current Weights based on the Market Activity State (High/Medium/Low).
7. Compute Each Category’s Contribution: Multiply (categoryScore) × (currentWeight).
8. Sum Contributions to get the raw netScore (a floating-point value that can exceed ±3 when scores are strong).
9. Smooth the netScore over two bars (if smoothing is enabled) to reduce noise.
10. Apply Hysteresis to the Final Zone:
• If the smoothed netScore ≥ +2, the bar is classified as “Bullish.”
• If the smoothed netScore ≤ –2, the bar is classified as “Bearish.”
• Otherwise, it is “Sideways.”
• To prevent rapid flips, the script requires two consecutive bars in the new zone before officially changing the displayed zone (if hysteresis is on).
E. Thresholds for Zone Classification
• BULLISH: netScore ≥ +2
• BEARISH: netScore ≤ –2
• SIDEWAYS: –2 < netScore < +2
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7. Role of Volatility (Market Activity State) in Scoring
Volatility acts as a dynamic switch that shifts which category carries the most influence:
1. High Activity (Volatile):
• Detected when at least two sub-scores out of BBW, ATR, KCW, and Volume equal +1.
• The script sets Trend weight = 50 % and Momentum weight = 35 %. Price Action weight is minimized at 15 %.
• Rationale: In volatile markets, strong trending moves and momentum surges dominate, so those signals are more reliable than nuanced candle patterns.
2. Low Activity (Calm):
• Detected when at least two sub-scores out of BBW, ATR, KCW, and Volume equal –1.
• The script sets Price Action weight = 55 %, Trend = 25 %, and Momentum = 20 %.
• Rationale: In quiet, sideways markets, subtle price-action signals (breakouts, doji patterns, small-range candles) are often the best early indicators of a new move.
3. Medium Activity (Balanced):
• Raw Score between –1 and +1 from the four volatility metrics.
• Uses whatever base weights the trader has specified (e.g., Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 %).
Because volatility can fluctuate rapidly, the script employs hysteresis on Market Activity State: a new High or Low state must occur on two consecutive bars before weights actually shift. This avoids constant back-and-forth weight changes and provides more stability.
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8. Scoring Example (Hypothetical Scenario)
• Symbol: Bitcoin on a 1-hour chart.
• Market Activity: Raw volatility sub-scores show BBW (+1), ATR (+1), KCW (0), Volume (+1) → Total raw Score = +3 → High Activity.
• Weights Selected: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Trend Signals:
• ADX strong and +DI > –DI → +1
• Fast MA above Slow MA → +1
• Ichimoku Senkou A > Senkou B → +1
→ Trend Score = +3
• Momentum Signals:
• RSI above upper bound → +1
• MACD histogram positive → +1
• Stochastic %K within neutral zone → 0
→ Momentum Score = +2
• Price Action Signals:
• Highest High/Lowest Low check yields 0 (close not near extremes)
• Heikin-Ashi doji reading is neutral → 0
• Candle range slightly above upper bound but trend is strong, so → +1
→ Price Action Score = +1
• Compute Net Score (before smoothing):
• Trend contribution = 3 × 0.50 = 1.50
• Momentum contribution = 2 × 0.35 = 0.70
• Price Action contribution = 1 × 0.15 = 0.15
• Raw netScore = 1.50 + 0.70 + 0.15 = 2.35
• Since 2.35 ≥ +2 and hysteresis is met, the final zone is “Bullish.”
Although the netScore lands at 2.35 (Bullish), smoothing might bring it slightly below 2.00 on the first bar (e.g., 1.90), in which case the script would wait for a second consecutive reading above +2 before officially classifying the zone as Bullish (if hysteresis is enabled).
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9. Correlation Between Categories
The four categories—Trend Strength, Momentum, Price Action, and Market Activity—often reinforce or offset one another. The script takes advantage of these natural correlations:
• Bullish Alignment: If ADX is strong and pointed upward, fast MA is above slow MA, and Ichimoku is positive, that usually coincides with RSI climbing above its upper bound and the MACD histogram turning positive. In such cases, both Trend and Momentum categories generate +1 or +2. Because the Market Activity State is likely High (given the accompanying volatility), Trend and Momentum weights are at their peak, so the netScore quickly crosses into Bullish territory.
• Sideways/Consolidation: During a low-volatility, sideways phase, ADX may fall below its threshold, MAs may flatten, and RSI might hover in the neutral band. However, subtle price-action signals (like a small breakout candle or a Heikin-Ashi candle with a slight bias) can still produce a +1 in the Price Action category. If Market Activity is Low, Price Action’s weight (55 %) can carry enough influence—even if Trend and Momentum are neutral—to push the netScore out of “Sideways” into a mild bullish or bearish bias.
• Opposing Signals: When Trend is bullish but Momentum turns negative (for example, price continues up but RSI rolls over), the two scores can partially cancel. Market Activity may remain Medium, in which case the netScore lingers near zero (Sideways). The trader can then wait for either a clearer momentum shift or a fresh price-action breakout before committing.
By dynamically recognizing these correlations and adjusting weights, the indicator ensures that:
• When Trend and Momentum align (and volatility supports it), the netScore leaps strongly into Bullish or Bearish.
• When Trend is neutral but Price Action shows an early move in a low-volatility environment, Price Action’s extra weight in the Low Activity State can still produce actionable signals.
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10. Market Activity State & Its Role (Detailed)
The Market Activity State is not a direct category score—it is an overarching context setter for how heavily to trust Trend, Momentum, or Price Action. Here’s how it is derived and applied:
1. Calculate Four Volatility Sub-Scores:
• BBW: Compare the current band width to its own moving average ± standard deviation. If BBW > (BBW_MA + stdev), assign +1 (high volatility); if BBW < (BBW_MA × 0.5), assign –1 (low volatility); else 0.
• ATR: Compare ATR to its moving average ± standard deviation. A spike above the upper threshold is +1; a contraction below the lower threshold is –1; otherwise 0.
• KCW: Same logic as ATR but around the KCW mean.
• Volume: Compare current volume to its volume MA ± standard deviation. Above the upper threshold is +1; below the lower threshold is –1; else 0.
2. Sum Sub-Scores → Raw Market Activity Score: Range between –4 and +4.
3. Assign Market Activity State:
• High Activity: Raw Score ≥ +2 (at least two volatility metrics are strongly spiking).
• Low Activity: Raw Score ≤ –2 (at least two metrics signal unusually low volatility or thin volume).
• Medium Activity: Raw Score is between –1 and +1 inclusive.
4. Hysteresis for Stability:
• If hysteresis is enabled, a new state only takes hold after two consecutive bars confirm the same High, Medium, or Low label.
• This prevents the Market Activity State from bouncing around when volatility is on the fence.
5. Set Category Weights Based on Activity State:
• High Activity: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Low Activity: Trend = 25 %, Momentum = 20 %, Price Action = 55 %.
• Medium Activity: Use trader’s base weights (e.g., Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 %).
6. Impact on netScore: Because category scores (–3 to +3) multiply by these weights, High Activity amplifies the effect of strong Trend and Momentum scores; Low Activity amplifies the effect of Price Action.
7. Market Context Tooltip: The dashboard includes a tooltip summarizing the current state—e.g., “High activity, trend and momentum prioritized,” “Low activity, price action prioritized,” or “Balanced market, all categories considered.”
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11. Category Weights: Base vs. Dynamic
Traders begin by specifying base weights for Trend Strength, Momentum, and Price Action that sum to 100 %. These apply only when volatility is in the Medium band. Once volatility shifts:
• High Volatility Overrides:
• Trend jumps from its base (e.g., 40 %) to 50 %.
• Momentum jumps from its base (e.g., 30 %) to 35 %.
• Price Action is reduced to 15 %.
Example: If base weights were Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 %, then in High Activity they become 50/35/15. A Trend score of +3 now contributes 3 × 0.50 = +1.50 to netScore; a Momentum +2 contributes 2 × 0.35 = +0.70. In total, Trend + Momentum can easily push netScore above the +2 threshold on its own.
• Low Volatility Overrides:
• Price Action leaps from its base (30 %) to 55 %.
• Trend falls to 25 %, Momentum falls to 20 %.
Why? When markets are quiet, subtle candle breakouts, doji patterns, and small-range expansions tend to foreshadow the next swing more effectively than raw trend readings. A Price Action score of +3 in this state contributes 3 × 0.55 = +1.65, which can carry the netScore toward +2—even if Trend and Momentum are neutral or only mildly positive.
Because these weight shifts happen only after two consecutive bars confirm a High or Low state (if hysteresis is on), the indicator avoids constantly flipping its emphasis during borderline volatility phases.
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12. Dominant Category Explained
Within the dashboard, a label such as “Trend Dominant,” “Momentum Dominant,” or “Price Action Dominant” appears when one category’s absolute weighted contribution to netScore is the largest. Concretely:
• Compute each category’s weighted contribution = (raw category score) × (current weight).
• Compare the absolute values of those three contributions.
• The category with the highest absolute value is flagged as Dominant for that bar.
Why It Matters:
• Momentum Dominant: Indicates that the combined force of RSI, Stochastic, and MACD (after weighting) is pushing netScore farther than either Trend or Price Action. In practice, it means that short-term sentiment and speed of change are the primary drivers right now, so traders should watch for continued momentum signals before committing to a trade.
• Trend Dominant: Means ADX, MA slope, and Ichimoku (once weighted) outweigh the other categories. This suggests a strong directional move is in place; trend-following entries or confirming pullbacks are likely to succeed.
• Price Action Dominant: Occurs when breakout/breakdown patterns, Heikin-Ashi candle readings, and range expansions (after weighting) are the most influential. This often happens in calmer markets, where subtle shifts in candle structure can foreshadow bigger moves.
By explicitly calling out which category is carrying the most weight at any moment, the dashboard gives traders immediate insight into why the netScore is tilting toward bullish, bearish, or sideways.
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13. Oscillator Plot: How to Read It
The “Net Score” oscillator sits below the dashboard and visually displays the smoothed netScore as a line graph. Key features:
1. Value Range: In normal conditions it oscillates roughly between –3 and +3, but extreme confluences can push it outside that range.
2. Horizontal Threshold Lines:
• +2 Line (Bullish threshold)
• 0 Line (Neutral midline)
• –2 Line (Bearish threshold)
3. Zone Coloring:
• Green Background (Bullish Zone): When netScore ≥ +2.
• Red Background (Bearish Zone): When netScore ≤ –2.
• Gray Background (Sideways Zone): When –2 < netScore < +2.
4. Dynamic Line Color:
• The plotted netScore line itself is colored green in a Bullish Zone, red in a Bearish Zone, or gray in a Sideways Zone, creating an immediate visual cue.
Interpretation Tips:
• Crossing Above +2: Signals a strong enough combined trend/momentum/price-action reading to classify as Bullish. Many traders wait for a clear crossing plus a confirmation candle before entering a long position.
• Crossing Below –2: Indicates a strong Bearish signal. Traders may consider short or exit strategies.
• Rising Slope, Even Below +2: If netScore climbs steadily from neutral toward +2, it demonstrates building bullish momentum.
• Divergence: If price makes a higher high but the oscillator fails to reach a new high, it can warn of weakening momentum and a potential reversal.
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14. Comments and Their Necessity
Every sub-indicator (ADX, MA slope, Ichimoku, RSI, Stochastic, MACD, HH/LL, Heikin-Ashi, Candle Range, BBW, ATR, KCW, Volume) generates a short comment that appears in the detailed dashboard. Examples:
• “Strong bullish trend” or “Strong bearish trend” for ADX/DMI
• “Fast MA above slow MA” or “Fast MA below slow MA” for MA slope
• “RSI above dynamic threshold” or “RSI below dynamic threshold” for RSI
• “MACD histogram positive” or “MACD histogram negative” for MACD Hist
• “Price near highs” or “Price near lows” for HH/LL checks
• “Bullish Heikin Ashi” or “Bearish Heikin Ashi” for HA Doji scoring
• “Large range, trend confirmed” or “Small range, trend contradicted” for Candle Range
Additionally, the top-row comment for each category is:
• Trend: “Highly Bullish,” “Highly Bearish,” or “Neutral Trend.”
• Momentum: “Strong Momentum,” “Weak Momentum,” or “Neutral Momentum.”
• Price Action: “Bullish Action,” “Bearish Action,” or “Neutral Action.”
• Market Activity: “Volatile Market,” “Calm Market,” or “Stable Market.”
Reasons for These Comments:
• Transparency: Shows exactly how each sub-indicator contributed to its category score.
• Education: Helps traders learn why a category is labeled bullish, bearish, or neutral, building intuition over time.
• Customization: If, for example, the RSI comment says “RSI neutral” despite an impending trend shift, a trader might choose to adjust RSI length or thresholds.
In the detailed dashboard, hovering over each comment cell also reveals a tooltip with additional context (e.g., “Fast MA above slow MA” or “Senkou A above Senkou B”), helping traders understand the precise rule behind that +1, 0, or –1 assignment.
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15. Real-Life Example (Consolidated)
• Instrument & Timeframe: Bitcoin (BTCUSD), 1-hour chart.
• Current Market Activity: BBW and ATR both spike (+1 each), KCW is moderately high (+1), but volume is only neutral (0) → Raw Market Activity Score = +2 → State = High Activity (after two bars, if hysteresis is on).
• Category Weights Applied: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Trend Sub-Scores:
1. ADX = 25 (above threshold 20) with +DI > –DI → +1.
2. Fast MA (20-period) sits above Slow MA (50-period) → +1.
3. Ichimoku: Senkou A > Senkou B → +1.
→ Trend Score = +3.
• Momentum Sub-Scores:
4. RSI = 75 (above its moving average +1 stdev) → +1.
5. MACD histogram = +0.15 → +1.
6. Stochastic %K = 50 (mid-range) → 0.
→ Momentum Score = +2.
• Price Action Sub-Scores:
7. Price is not within 1 % of the 20-period high/low and slope = positive → 0.
8. Heikin-Ashi body is slightly larger than stdev over last 5 bars with haClose > haOpen → +1.
9. Candle range is just above its dynamic upper bound but trend is already captured, so → +1.
→ Price Action Score = +2.
• Calculate netScore (before smoothing):
• Trend contribution = 3 × 0.50 = 1.50
• Momentum contribution = 2 × 0.35 = 0.70
• Price Action contribution = 2 × 0.15 = 0.30
• Raw netScore = 1.50 + 0.70 + 0.30 = 2.50 → Immediately classified as Bullish.
• Oscillator & Dashboard Output:
• The oscillator line crosses above +2 and turns green.
• Dashboard displays:
• Trend Regime “BULLISH,” Trend Score = 3, Comment = “Highly Bullish.”
• Momentum Regime “BULLISH,” Momentum Score = 2, Comment = “Strong Momentum.”
• Price Action Regime “BULLISH,” Price Action Score = 2, Comment = “Bullish Action.”
• Market Activity State “High,” Comment = “Volatile Market.”
• Weights: Trend 50 %, Momentum 35 %, Price Action 15 %.
• Dominant Category: Trend (because 1.50 > 0.70 > 0.30).
• Overall Score: 2.50, posCount = (three +1s in Trend) + (two +1s in Momentum) + (two +1s in Price Action) = 7 bullish signals, negCount = 0.
• Final Zone = “BULLISH.”
• The trader sees that both Trend and Momentum are reinforcing each other under high volatility. They might wait one more candle for confirmation but already have strong evidence to consider a long.
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Disclaimer
This indicator is strictly a technical analysis tool and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders should:
• Always backtest the “Market Zone Analyzer ” on their chosen symbols and timeframes before committing real capital.
• Combine this tool with sound risk management, position sizing, and, if possible, fundamental analysis.
• Understand that no indicator is foolproof; always be prepared for unexpected market moves.
Goodluck
-BullByte!
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