Ehlers Early Onset TrendIn his article in this issue, “The Quotient Transform,” author John Ehlers introduces the quotient transform (QT), a zero-lag filter that can be used for the purpose of timely trend detection. The QT is an advancement of the technique he presented in his January 2014 S&C article, “Predictive And Successful Indicators.” This time, the output of a roofing filter (which includes applying a high-pass filter and SuperSmoother filter) is normalized.
Code and other platforms www.traders.com
Pinescript code Glaz and LazyBear
Cerca negli script per "2014年日元兑美元平均汇率"
BTC HistoricMerged Bitstamp and Mt Gox precrash data.
To use you will need to use any chart with a start time before 7/2010. You will need this to see all the data otherwise it will get cut off. Publishing ideas using this indicator will spam some other symbol so I would not recommend doing so (sorry XAUUSD).
Click the "eye" button next to the primary security to hide it.
Make sure the indicator scale is set to "Right".
Right click on the right axis, and uncheck "Scale Series Only"
Note: Since this is going to be overlayed onto another chart it will likely be missing weekend data. If anyone knows of a current chart that is 24/7 that has data prior to July 2011 please leave a comment.
You can tweak the price weight between Gox and Stamp and the point when the data starts to blend to the time when Gox went off a cliff.
- Key date values:
1377 is Jan-6-2014
1385 is Jan-15-2014 (default)
1337 is about the ATH (coincidentally)
1192 is July-5-2013
--- Custom indicators for historic data:
I updated to the latest versions
- BTC Historic RSI
pastebin.com
created by @debani (www.tradingview.com)
original here:
- BTC Histroric Willy
pastebin.com
original indicator by @CRInvestor (www.tradingview.com)
created by @flibbr (www.tradingview.com)
original here:
- BTC Historic Ichimoku
pastebin.com
thanks to @flibbr, @debani for the indicators
Let me know if you have questions, comments.
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers MESA Stochastic IndicatorLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced MESA Stochastic Indicator in Jan, 2014.
Function
The MESA Stochastic oscillator, a stochastic successor that removes the effect of spectral dilation through the use of a roofing filter.
Key Signal
MESAStochastic --> Ehlers MESA Stochastic Indicator fast line
Trigger --> Ehlers MESA Stochastic Indicator slow line
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book.
Remarks
The 101th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
Freedom of MovementFreedom of Movement Indicator
---------------------------------------------------------
In “Evidence-Based Support & Resistance” article, author Melvin Dickover introduces two new indicators to help traders note support and resistance areas by identifying supply and demand pools. Here you can find the support-resistance technical indicator called "Freedom of Movement".
The indicator takes into account price-volume behavior in order to detect points where movement of price is suddenly restricted, the possible supply and demand pools. These points are also marked by Defended Price Lines (DPLs).
DPLs are horizontal lines that run across the chart at levels defined by following conditions:
* Overlapping bars: If the indicator spike (i.e., indicator is above 2.0 or a custom value) corresponds to a price bar overlapping the previous one, the previous close can be used as the DPL value.
* Very large bars: If the indicator spike corresponds to a price bar of a large size, use its close price as the DPL value.
* Gapping bars: If the indicator spike corresponds to a price bar gapping from the previous bar, the DPL value will depend on the gap size. Small gaps can be ignored: the author suggests using the previous close as the DPL value. When the gap is big, the close of the latter bar is used instead.
* Clustering spikes: If the indicator spikes come in clusters, use the extreme close or open price of the bar corresponding to the last or next to last spike in cluster.
DPLs can be used as support and resistance levels. In order confirm and refine them, FoM (Freedom of Movement) is used along with the Relative Volume Indicator (RVI), which you can find here:
Clustering spikes provide the strongest DPLs while isolated spikes can be used to confirm and refine those provided by the RVI. Coincidence of spikes of the two indicator can be considered a sign of greater strength of the DPL.
More info:
S&C magazine, April 2014.
MACD_3Color_OverlayThis was updated from script of ChrisMoody published on 4-10-2014.
This MACD is an overlayed version instead of separated indicator.
I re-color lines and histogram for my own trading strategy.
For example, look the screenshot, you can see that even though price from 1 to 2 is ascending, but on histogram, the volume from 1 to 2 is descending, which means there will be a reversal of price.
So we wait until the second red volume appears (marked with an arrow on top) we can place a short order. Or, to make sure, we can wait until the red dot (marked with "X" letter) appears to do that.
Same with buy order.
This is just a suggestion for trading strategy, not a guarantee, everything can happen, you should spend time to inspect the indicator to make sure you understand it before use for trading.
And YOU TRADE WITH YOUR OWN RISKS!
Hope you like it.
Indicator: Relative Volume Indicator & Freedom Of MovementRelative Volume Indicator
------------------------------
RVI is a support-resistance technical indicator developed by Melvin E. Dickover. Unlike many conventional support and resistance indicators, the Relative Volume Indicator takes into account price-volume behavior in order to detect the supply and demand pools. These pools are marked by "Defended Price Lines" (DPLs), also introduced by the author.
RVI is usually plotted as a histogram; its bars are highlighted (black, by default) when the volume is unusually large. According to the author, this happens if the indicator value exceeds 2.0, thus signifying that a possible DPL is present.
DPLs are horizontal lines that run across the chart at levels defined by following conditions:
* Overlapping bars: If the indicator spike (i.e., indicator is above 2.0 or a custom value)
corresponds to a price bar overlapping the previous one, the previous close can be used as the
DPL value.
* Very large bars: If the indicator spike corresponds to a price bar of a large size, use its
close price as the DPL value.
* Gapping bars: If the indicator spike corresponds to a price bar gapping from the previous bar,
the DPL value will depend on the gap size. Small gaps can be ignored: the author suggests using
the previous close as the DPL value. When the gap is big, the close of the latter bar is used
instead.
* Clustering spikes: If the indicator spikes come in clusters, use the extreme close or open
price of the bar corresponding to the last or next to last spike in cluster.
DPLs can be used as support and resistance levels. In order confirm and refine them, RVI is used along with the FreedomOfMovement indicator discussed next.
Freedom of Movement Indicator
------------------------------
FOM is a support-resistance technical indicator, also by Melvin E. Dickover. FOM is the ratio of relative effect (relative price change) to the relative effort (normalized volume), expressed in standard deviations. This value is plotted as a histogram; its bars are highlighted (black, by default( when this ratio is unusually high. These highlighted bars, or "spikes", define the positioning of the DPLs.
Suggestions for placing DPLs are the same as for the Relative Volume Indicator discussed above.
Note that clustering spikes provide the strongest DPLs while isolated spikes can be used to confirm and refine those provided by the Relative Volume Indicator. Coincidence of spikes of the two indicator can be considered a sign of greater strength of the DPL.
More info:
S&C magazine, April 2014.
I am still trying these on various instruments to understand the workings more. Don't forget to share what you learn -- any use cases / ideal scenarios / gotchas, would love to hear them all.
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Entropy (Fiedor/Kontoyiannis) - Part 2 of Fiedor's TheoryThis indicator estimates the Shannon entropy of a price series using a Markov chain model of binary returns, following the approach of Fiedor (2014) and Kontoyiannis (1997).
% of Max shows current entropy as a percentage of its theoretical maximum (1 bit for binary up/down moves).
Percentile ranks the current entropy against historical values in the chosen lookback window.
High entropy suggests price movement is less predictable by frequentist models; low entropy implies more structure and predictability.
Use this as an informational oscillator, not a trading signal.
This is a visualization of Part 1 of Fiedor's Theory. The same entropy logic is already embedded in Part 1 however the second pane is a nice reminder of why it works.
MC Geopolitical Tension Events📌 Script Title: Geopolitical Tension Events
📖 Description:
This script highlights key geopolitical and military tension events from 1914 to 2024 that have historically impacted global markets.
It automatically plots vertical dashed lines and labels on the chart at the time of each major event. This allows traders and analysts to visually assess how markets have responded to global crises, wars, and significant political instability over time.
🧠 Use Cases:
Historical backtesting: Understand how market responded to past geopolitical shocks.
Contextual analysis: Add macro context to technical setups.
🗓️ List of Geopolitical Tension Events in the Script
Date Event Title Description
1914-07-28 WWI Begins Outbreak of World War I following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
1929-10-24 Wall Street Crash Black Thursday, the start of the 1929 stock market crash.
1939-09-01 WWII Begins Germany invades Poland, starting World War II.
1941-12-07 Pearl Harbor Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor; U.S. enters WWII.
1945-08-06 Hiroshima Bombing First atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the U.S.
1950-06-25 Korean War Begins North Korea invades South Korea.
1962-10-16 Cuban Missile Crisis 13-day standoff between the U.S. and USSR over missiles in Cuba.
1973-10-06 Yom Kippur War Egypt and Syria launch surprise attack on Israel.
1979-11-04 Iran Hostage Crisis U.S. Embassy in Tehran seized; 52 hostages taken.
1990-08-02 Gulf War Begins Iraq invades Kuwait, triggering U.S. intervention.
2001-09-11 9/11 Attacks Coordinated terrorist attacks on the U.S.
2003-03-20 Iraq War Begins U.S.-led invasion of Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein.
2008-09-15 Lehman Collapse Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers; peak of global financial crisis.
2014-03-01 Crimea Crisis Russia annexes Crimea from Ukraine.
2020-01-03 Soleimani Strike U.S. drone strike kills Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.
2022-02-24 Ukraine Invasion Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
2023-10-07 Hamas-Israel War Hamas launches attack on Israel, sparking war in Gaza.
2024-01-12 Red Sea Crisis Houthis attack ships in Red Sea, prompting Western naval response.
(US) Historical Trade WarsHistorical U.S. Trade Wars Indicator
Overview
This indicator visualizes major U.S. trade wars and disputes throughout modern economic history, from the McKinley Tariff of 1890 to recent U.S.-China tensions. This U.S.-focused timeline is perfect for macro traders, economic historians, and anyone looking to understand how America's trade conflicts correlate with market movements.
Features
Comprehensive U.S. Timeline: Covers 130+ years of U.S.-centered trade disputes with historically accurate dates.
Color-Coded Events:
🔴 Red: Marks the beginning of a U.S. trade war or major dispute.
🟡 Yellow: Highlights significant events within a trade conflict.
🟢 Green: Shows resolutions or ends of trade disputes.
Global Partners/Rivals: Tracks U.S. trade relations with China, Japan, EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and others.
Country Flags: Uses emoji flags for easy visual identification of nations in trade relations with the U.S.
Major Trade Wars Covered:
McKinley Tariff (1890-1894)
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930-1934)
U.S.-Europe Chicken War (1962-1974)
Multifiber Arrangement Quotas (1974-2005)
Japan-U.S. Trade Disputes (1981-1989)
NAFTA and Softwood Lumber Disputes
Clinton and Bush-Era Steel Tariffs
Obama-Era China Tire Tariffs
Rare Earth Minerals Dispute (2012-2014)
Solar Panel Dispute (2012-2015)
TPP and TTIP Negotiations
U.S.-China Trade War (2018-present)
Airbus-Boeing Dispute
Usage
Analyze how markets historically responded to trade war initiations and resolutions.
Identify patterns in market behavior during periods of trade tensions.
Use as an overlay with price action to examine correlations.
Perfect companion for macro analysis on daily, weekly, or monthly charts.
About
This indicator is designed as a historical reference tool for traders and economic analysts focusing on U.S. trade policy and its global impact. The dates and events have been thoroughly researched for accuracy. Each label includes emojis to indicate the U.S. and its trade partners/rivals, making it easy to track America's evolving trade relationships across time.
Note: This indicator works best on larger timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) due to the historical span covered.
Quantitative Easing and Tightening PeriodsQuantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative Tightening (QT) periods based on historical events from the Federal Reserve:
Quantitative Easing (QE) Periods:
QE1:
Start: November 25, 2008
End: March 31, 2010
Description: The Federal Reserve initiated QE1 in response to the financial crisis, purchasing mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries.
QE2:
Start: November 3, 2010
End: June 29, 2011
Description: QE2 involved the purchase of $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to further stimulate the economy.
QE3:
Start: September 13, 2012
End: October 29, 2014
Description: QE3 was an open-ended bond-buying program with monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
QE4 (COVID-19 Pandemic Response):
Start: March 15, 2020
End: March 10, 2022
Description: The Federal Reserve engaged in QE4 in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, purchasing Treasuries and MBS in an effort to provide liquidity.
Quantitative Tightening (QT) Periods:
QT1:
Start: October 1, 2017
End: August 1, 2019
Description: The Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet in 2017, gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. This period ended in August 2019 when the Fed decided to stop reducing its balance sheet.
QT2:
Start: June 1, 2022
End: Ongoing (as of March 2025)
Description: The Federal Reserve started QT again in June 2022, reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and MBS in response to rising inflation. The Fed has continued this tightening cycle.
These periods are key moments in U.S. monetary policy, where the Fed either injected liquidity into the economy (QE) or reduced its balance sheet by not reinvesting maturing securities (QT). The exact dates and nature of these policies may vary based on interpretation and adjustments to the Fed's actions during those times.
3 Down, 3 Up Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "3 Down, 3 Up Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to capitalize on short-term price reversals. It enters a long position after consecutive bearish closes and exits after consecutive bullish closes. This strategy is NOT optimized and can be used on any timeframes.
█ WHAT ARE CONSECUTIVE DOWN/UP CLOSES?
- Consecutive Down Closes: A sequence of trading bars where each close is lower than the previous close.
- Consecutive Up Closes: A sequence of trading bars where each close is higher than the previous close.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The price closes lower than the previous close for Consecutive Down Closes for Entry (default: 3) consecutive bars.
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between Start Time and End Time).
If enabled, the close price must also be above the 200-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the price closes higher than the previous close for Consecutive Up Closes for Exit (default: 3) consecutive bars.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Consecutive Down Closes for Entry: Number of consecutive lower closes required to trigger a buy. Default = 3.
Consecutive Up Closes for Exit: Number of consecutive higher closes required to exit. Default = 3.
EMA Filter: Optional 200-period EMA filter to confirm long entries in bullish trends. Default = disabled.
Start Time and End Time: Restrict trading to specific dates (default: 2014-2099).
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
Designed for volatile markets with frequent short-term reversals.
Performs best when price oscillates between clear support/resistance levels.
The EMA filter improves reliability in trending markets but may reduce trade frequency.
Backtest to optimize consecutive close thresholds and EMA period for specific instruments.
Engulfing Candlestick StrategyEver wondered whether the Bullish or Bearish Engulfing pattern works or has statistical significance? This script is for you. It works across all markets and timeframes.
The Engulfing Candlestick Pattern is a widely used technical analysis pattern that traders use to predict potential price reversals. It consists of two candles: a small candle followed by a larger one that "engulfs" the previous candle. This pattern is considered bullish when it occurs in a downtrend (bullish engulfing) and bearish when it occurs in an uptrend (bearish engulfing).
Statistical Significance of the Engulfing Pattern:
While many traders rely on candlestick patterns for making decisions, research on the statistical significance of these patterns has produced mixed results. A study by Dimitrios K. Koutoupis and K. M. Koutoupis (2014), titled "Testing the Effectiveness of Candlestick Chart Patterns in Forex Markets," indicates that candlestick patterns, including the engulfing pattern, can provide some predictive power, but their success largely depends on the market conditions and timeframe used. The researchers concluded that while some candlestick patterns can be useful, traders must combine them with other indicators or market knowledge to improve their predictive accuracy.
Another study by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," explores the profitability of technical indicators, including candlestick patterns, and finds that simple trading rules, such as those based on moving averages or candlestick patterns, can occasionally outperform a random walk in certain market conditions.
However, Jorion (1997), in his work "The Risk of Speculation: The Case of Technical Analysis," warns that the reliability of candlestick patterns, including the engulfing patterns, can vary significantly across different markets and periods. Therefore, it's important to use these patterns as part of a broader trading strategy that includes other risk management techniques and technical indicators.
Application Across Markets:
This script applies to all markets (e.g., stocks, commodities, forex) and timeframes, making it a versatile tool for traders seeking to explore the statistical effectiveness of the bullish and bearish engulfing patterns in their own trading.
Conclusion:
This script allows you to backtest and visualize the effectiveness of the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing patterns across any market and timeframe. While the statistical significance of these patterns may vary, the script provides a clear framework for evaluating their performance in real-time trading conditions. Always remember to combine such patterns with other risk management strategies and indicators to enhance their predictive power.
McRib Bull Market Indicator# McRib Bull Market Indicator
## Overview
The McRib Bull Market Indicator is a unique technical analysis tool that marks McDonald's McRib sandwich release dates on your trading charts. While seemingly unconventional, this indicator serves as a fascinating historical reference point for market analysis, particularly for studying periods of market expansion.
## Key Features
- Visual yellow labels marking verified McRib release dates from 2012 to 2024
- Clean, unobtrusive design that overlays on any chart timeframe
- Covers both U.S. and international releases (including UK and Australia)
## Historical Reference Points
The indicator includes release dates from:
- December 2012
- October-December 2014
- January 2015
- October 2016
- November 2017
- October 2018
- October 2019
- December 2020
- October 2022
- November 2023
- December 2024
## Usage Guide
1. Add the indicator to any chart by searching for "McRib Bull Market Indicator"
2. The indicator will automatically display yellow labels above price candles on McRib release dates
3. Use these reference points to:
- Analyze market conditions during McRib releases
- Study potential correlations between releases and market movements
- Compare market behavior across different McRib release periods
- Identify any patterns in market expansion phases coinciding with releases
## Trading Application
While initially created as a novelty indicator, it can be used to:
- Mark specific historical points of reference for broader market analysis
- Study potential market psychology around major promotional events
- Compare seasonal market patterns with recurring release dates
- Analyze market expansion phases that coincide with releases
Remember: While this indicator provides interesting historical reference points, it should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy rather than as a standalone trading signal.
Correlation with AveragesThe "Correlation with Averages" indicator is designed to visualize and analyze the correlation between a selected asset's price and a base symbol's price, such as the S&P 500 (SPY). This indicator allows users to evaluate how closely an asset’s price movements align with those of the base symbol over various time periods, providing insights into market trends and potential portfolio adjustments.
Key Features:
Base Symbol and Correlation Period:
Users can specify the base symbol (default is SPY) and the period for correlation measurement (default is 252 trading days, approximating one year).
Correlation Calculation:
The indicator computes the correlation between the asset’s closing price and the base symbol’s closing price for the defined period.
Visualization:
The correlation value is plotted on the chart, with conditional background colors indicating the strength and direction of the correlation:
Red for negative correlation (below -0.5)
Green for positive correlation (above 0.5)
Yellow for neutral correlation (between -0.5 and 0.5)
Average Correlation Over Time:
Average correlations are calculated and displayed for various periods: one week, one month, one year, and five years.
A table on the chart provides dynamic updates of these average values with color-coded backgrounds to indicate correlation strength.
The Role of Correlation in Portfolio Management
Correlation is a crucial concept in portfolio management because it measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Understanding correlation helps investors construct diversified portfolios that balance risk and return. Here's why correlation is important:
Diversification:
By including assets with low or negative correlation in a portfolio, investors can reduce overall portfolio volatility and risk. For instance, if one asset is negatively correlated with another, when one performs poorly, the other may perform well, thus smoothing the overall returns.
Risk Management:
Correlation analysis helps in identifying the potential impact of one asset’s performance on the entire portfolio. Assets with high correlation can lead to concentrated risk, while those with low correlation offer better risk management.
Performance Analysis:
Correlation measures the degree to which asset returns move together. This can inform strategic decisions, such as whether to adjust positions based on expected market conditions.
Scientific References
Markowitz, H. M. (1952). "Portfolio Selection." Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
This foundational paper introduced Modern Portfolio Theory, highlighting the importance of diversification and correlation in reducing portfolio risk.
Jorion, P. (2007). Financial Risk Manager Handbook. Wiley.
This handbook provides an in-depth exploration of risk management techniques, including the use of correlation in portfolio management.
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., Brown, S. J., & Goetzmann, W. N. (2014). Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis. Wiley.
This book elaborates on the concepts of correlation and diversification, offering practical insights into portfolio construction and risk management.
By utilizing the "Correlation with Averages" indicator, traders and portfolio managers can make informed decisions based on the relationship between asset prices and the base symbol, ultimately enhancing their investment strategies.
Potential Divergence Checker#### Key Features
1. Potential Divergence Signals:
Potential divergences can signal a change in price movement before it occurs. This indicator identifies potential divergences instead of waiting for full confirmation, allowing it to detect signs of divergence earlier than traditional methods. This provides more flexible entry points and can act as a broader filter for potential setups.
2. Exposing Signals for External Use:
One of its advanced features is the ability to expose signals for use in other scripts. This allows users to integrate divergence signals and related entry/exit points into custom strategies or automated systems.
3. Custom Entry/Exit Timing Based on Years and Days:
The indicator provides entry and exit signals based on years and days, which could be useful for time-specific market behavior, long-term trades, and back testing.
#### Basic Usage
This indicator can check for all types of potential divergences: bullish, hidden bullish, bearish, hidden bearish. All you need to do is choose the type you want to check for under “DIVERGENCE TYPE” in the settings. On the chart, potential bullish divergences will show up as triangles below the price candles. one the chart potential bearish divergences will show up as upside down triangles above the price candles
#### Signals for Advanced Usage
You can use this indicator as a source in other indicators or strategies using the following information:
“ PD: Bull divergence signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: HBull divergence(hidden bull) signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: Bear divergence signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: HBear divergence(hidden bear) signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: enter ” signal will return a “1” when both the days and years criteria in the “entry filter settings” are met and “0” when not met.
“ PD: exit ” signal will return a “1” when the days criteria in the “exit filter settings” are met and “0” when not met.
#### Examples of Using Signals
1. If you are testing a long strategy for Bitcoin and do not want it to run during bear market years(e.g., the second year after a US presidential election), you can enable the “year and day filter for entry,” uncheck the following years in the settings: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, 2026, and reference the signal below in our strategy
signal: “ PD: enter ”
2. Let’s say you have a good long strategy, but want to make it a bit more profitable, you can tell the strategy not to run on days where there is potential bearish divergence and have it only run on more profitable days using these signals and the appropriate settings in the indicator
signal: “ PD: Bear divergence signal ” will return a ‘0’ with no bearish divergence present
signal: “ PD: enter ” will return a “1” if the entry falls on a specific, more profitable day chosen in the settings
#### Disclaimer
The "Potential Divergence Checker" indicator is a tool designed to identify potential market signals. It may have bugs and not do what it should do. It is not a guarantee of future trading performance, and users should exercise caution when making trading decisions based on its outputs. Always perform your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Six T3 Bands – Set to Any Time Frame [1000X]Script Description: Six T3 Bands – Set to Any Time Frame
This script leverages T3 lines, an advanced form of moving averages, to provide more adaptive and responsive indicators compared to traditional Moving Averages (MA) or Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The T3 indicator, originally conceptualized by Tim Tillson in 1998, is known for its smoothness and reduced lag, making it a powerful tool for traders seeking precise market signals.
Features:
1 Adjustable Parameters:
◦ The script allows for the customization of six different T3 lines, each with adjustable lengths and "b values" (smoothing coefficients). This flexibility lets users fine-tune the indicators to fit various trading styles and market conditions.
◦ Users can set the reference timeframe for the T3 lines using the request.security function, enabling analysis across different timeframes. By default, the timeframe is set to the daily chart.
2 Calculation Method:
◦ The T3 lines are calculated using a multi-stage Exponential Moving Average (EMA) process. Specifically, the price data is smoothed through six stages of EMA calculations, with coefficients applied to produce the final T3 value. This method ensures the T3 lines are smoother and less laggy than traditional moving averages.
3 Usage:
◦ The T3 lines can be utilized to identify natural support and resistance levels within the market. By observing how the price interacts with these lines, traders can gain insights into potential reversal points or continuation patterns.
◦ The script's default settings are optimized for identifying these levels, but users are encouraged to adjust the parameters to match their specific trading strategies.
How to Use:
1 Customization:
◦ Access the script's settings to adjust the T3 lengths and "b values" for each of the six lines. This customization allows you to tailor the indicator to your preferred sensitivity and responsiveness.
◦ Set the reference timeframe according to your analysis needs. Whether you prefer intraday, daily, or longer-term charts, the T3 lines will remain set to the reference timeframe that you choose, while you focus your attention on the time frame of your choice.
2 Trading Strategies:
◦ Support and Resistance Trading: Use the T3 lines to identify key support and resistance zones. Look for price reactions around these lines to make informed trading decisions.
◦ Trend Confirmation: Combine the T3 lines with other technical indicators to confirm trends and filter out noise. The smoothness of the T3 lines helps in recognizing genuine trend changes.
Conclusion: This script builds on the foundational work of Tim Tillson and the classic T3 Average script by @HPotter (2014). Significant enhancements include making the "b value" an adjustable input and utilizing the request.security function to apply T3 lines to a specified timeframe. These improvements provide traders with greater control and adaptability, enhancing the practical utility of the T3 indicator.
The "Six T3 Bands – Set to Any Time Frame " script offers a useful tool for traders looking to enhance their technical analysis, both to visualize trend direction and to identify likely support and resistance levels. Its adaptive nature and customizable features make it a valuable addition to many trading strategies..
Intellect_city - Halvings Bitcoin CycleWhat is halving?
The halving timer shows when the next Bitcoin halving will occur, as well as the dates of past halvings. This event occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is approximately every 4 years. Halving reduces the emission reward by half. The original Bitcoin reward was 50 BTC per block found.
Why is halving necessary?
Halving allows you to maintain an algorithmically specified emission level. Anyone can verify that no more than 21 million bitcoins can be issued using this algorithm. Moreover, everyone can see how much was issued earlier, at what speed the emission is happening now, and how many bitcoins remain to be mined in the future. Even a sharp increase or decrease in mining capacity will not significantly affect this process. In this case, during the next difficulty recalculation, which occurs every 2014 blocks, the mining difficulty will be recalculated so that blocks are still found approximately once every ten minutes.
How does halving work in Bitcoin blocks?
The miner who collects the block adds a so-called coinbase transaction. This transaction has no entry, only exit with the receipt of emission coins to your address. If the miner's block wins, then the entire network will consider these coins to have been obtained through legitimate means. The maximum reward size is determined by the algorithm; the miner can specify the maximum reward size for the current period or less. If he puts the reward higher than possible, the network will reject such a block and the miner will not receive anything. After each halving, miners have to halve the reward they assign to themselves, otherwise their blocks will be rejected and will not make it to the main branch of the blockchain.
The impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin
It is believed that with constant demand, a halving of supply should double the value of the asset. In practice, the market knows when the halving will occur and prepares for this event in advance. Typically, the Bitcoin rate begins to rise about six months before the halving, and during the halving itself it does not change much. On average for past periods, the upper peak of the rate can be observed more than a year after the halving. It is almost impossible to predict future periods because, in addition to the reduction in emissions, many other factors influence the exchange rate. For example, major hacks or bankruptcies of crypto companies, the situation on the stock market, manipulation of “whales,” or changes in legislative regulation.
---------------------------------------------
Table - Past and future Bitcoin halvings:
---------------------------------------------
Date: Number of blocks: Award:
0 - 03-01-2009 - 0 block - 50 BTC
1 - 28-11-2012 - 210000 block - 25 BTC
2 - 09-07-2016 - 420000 block - 12.5 BTC
3 - 11-05-2020 - 630000 block - 6.25 BTC
4 - 20-04-2024 - 840000 block - 3.125 BTC
5 - 24-03-2028 - 1050000 block - 1.5625 BTC
6 - 26-02-2032 - 1260000 block - 0.78125 BTC
7 - 30-01-2036 - 1470000 block - 0.390625 BTC
8 - 03-01-2040 - 1680000 block - 0.1953125 BTC
9 - 07-12-2043 - 1890000 block - 0.09765625 BTC
10 - 10-11-2047 - 2100000 block - 0.04882813 BTC
11 - 14-10-2051 - 2310000 block - 0.02441406 BTC
12 - 17-09-2055 - 2520000 block - 0.01220703 BTC
13 - 21-08-2059 - 2730000 block - 0.00610352 BTC
14 - 25-07-2063 - 2940000 block - 0.00305176 BTC
15 - 28-06-2067 - 3150000 block - 0.00152588 BTC
16 - 01-06-2071 - 3360000 block - 0.00076294 BTC
17 - 05-05-2075 - 3570000 block - 0.00038147 BTC
18 - 08-04-2079 - 3780000 block - 0.00019073 BTC
19 - 12-03-2083 - 3990000 block - 0.00009537 BTC
20 - 13-02-2087 - 4200000 block - 0.00004768 BTC
21 - 17-01-2091 - 4410000 block - 0.00002384 BTC
22 - 21-12-2094 - 4620000 block - 0.00001192 BTC
23 - 24-11-2098 - 4830000 block - 0.00000596 BTC
24 - 29-10-2102 - 5040000 block - 0.00000298 BTC
25 - 02-10-2106 - 5250000 block - 0.00000149 BTC
26 - 05-09-2110 - 5460000 block - 0.00000075 BTC
27 - 09-08-2114 - 5670000 block - 0.00000037 BTC
28 - 13-07-2118 - 5880000 block - 0.00000019 BTC
29 - 16-06-2122 - 6090000 block - 0.00000009 BTC
30 - 20-05-2126 - 6300000 block - 0.00000005 BTC
31 - 23-04-2130 - 6510000 block - 0.00000002 BTC
32 - 27-03-2134 - 6720000 block - 0.00000001 BTC
WIPFunctionLyaponovLibrary "WIPFunctionLyaponov"
Lyapunov exponents are mathematical measures used to describe the behavior of a system over
time. They are named after Russian mathematician Alexei Lyapunov, who first introduced the concept in the
late 19th century. The exponent is defined as the rate at which a particular function or variable changes
over time, and can be positive, negative, or zero.
Positive exponents indicate that a system tends to grow or expand over time, while negative exponents
indicate that a system tends to shrink or decay. Zero exponents indicate that the system does not change
significantly over time. Lyapunov exponents are used in various fields of science and engineering, including
physics, economics, and biology, to study the long-term behavior of complex systems.
~ generated description from vicuna13b
---
To calculate the Lyapunov Exponent (LE) of a given Time Series, we need to follow these steps:
1. Firstly, you should have access to your data in some format like CSV or Excel file. If not, then you can collect it manually using tools such as stopwatches and measuring tapes.
2. Once the data is collected, clean it up by removing any outliers that may skew results. This step involves checking for inconsistencies within your dataset (e.g., extremely large or small values) and either discarding them entirely or replacing with more reasonable estimates based on surrounding values.
3. Next, you need to determine the dimension of your time series data. In most cases, this will be equal to the number of variables being measured in each observation period (e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed).
4. Now that we have a clean dataset with known dimensions, we can calculate the LE for our Time Series using the following formula:
λ = log(||M^T * M - I||)/log(||v||)
where:
λ (Lyapunov Exponent) is the quantity that will be calculated.
||...|| denotes an Euclidean norm of a vector or matrix, which essentially means taking the square root of the sum of squares for each element in the vector/matrix.
M represents our Jacobian Matrix whose elements are given by:
J_ij = (∂fj / ∂xj) where fj is the jth variable and xj is the ith component of the initial condition vector x(t). In other words, each element in this matrix represents how much a small change in one variable affects another.
I denotes an identity matrix whose elements are all equal to 1 (or any constant value if you prefer). This term essentially acts as a baseline for comparison purposes since we want our Jacobian Matrix M^T * M to be close to it when the system is stable and far away from it when the system is unstable.
v represents an arbitrary vector whose Euclidean norm ||v|| will serve as a scaling factor in our calculation. The choice of this particular vector does not matter since we are only interested in its magnitude (i.e., length) for purposes of normalization. However, if you want to ensure that your results are accurate and consistent across different datasets or scenarios, it is recommended to use the same initial condition vector x(t) as used earlier when calculating our Jacobian Matrix M.
5. Finally, once we have calculated λ using the formula above, we can interpret its value in terms of stability/instability for our Time Series data:
- If λ < 0, then this indicates that the system is stable (i.e., nearby trajectories will converge towards each other over time).
- On the other hand, if λ > 0, then this implies that the system is unstable (i.e., nearby trajectories will diverge away from one another over time).
~ generated description from airoboros33b
---
Reference:
en.wikipedia.org
www.collimator.ai
blog.abhranil.net
www.researchgate.net
physics.stackexchange.com
---
This is a work in progress, it may contain errors so use with caution.
If you find flaws or suggest something new, please leave a comment bellow.
_measure_function(i)
helper function to get the name of distance function by a index (0 -> 13).\
Functions: SSD, Euclidean, Manhattan, Minkowski, Chebyshev, Correlation, Cosine, Camberra, MAE, MSE, Lorentzian, Intersection, Penrose Shape, Meehl.
Parameters:
i (int)
_test(L)
Helper function to test the output exponents state system and outputs description into a string.
Parameters:
L (float )
estimate(X, initial_distance, distance_function)
Estimate the Lyaponov Exponents for multiple series in a row matrix.
Parameters:
X (map)
initial_distance (float) : Initial distance limit.
distance_function (string) : Name of the distance function to be used, default:`ssd`.
Returns: List of Lyaponov exponents.
max(L)
Maximal Lyaponov Exponent.
Parameters:
L (float ) : List of Lyapunov exponents.
Returns: Highest exponent.
WaveTrend 3D█ OVERVIEW
WaveTrend 3D (WT3D) is a novel implementation of the famous WaveTrend (WT) indicator and has been completely redesigned from the ground up to address some of the inherent shortcomings associated with the traditional WT algorithm.
█ BACKGROUND
The WaveTrend (WT) indicator has become a widely popular tool for traders in recent years. WT was first ported to PineScript in 2014 by the user @LazyBear, and since then, it has ascended to become one of the Top 5 most popular scripts on TradingView.
The WT algorithm appears to have origins in a lesser-known proprietary algorithm called Trading Channel Index (TCI), created by AIQ Systems in 1986 as an integral part of their commercial software suite, TradingExpert Pro. The software’s reference manual states that “TCI identifies changes in price direction” and is “an adaptation of Donald R. Lambert’s Commodity Channel Index (CCI)”, which was introduced to the world six years earlier in 1980. Interestingly, a vestige of this early beginning can still be seen in the source code of LazyBear’s script, where the final EMA calculation is stored in an intermediate variable called “tci” in the code.
█ IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS
WaveTrend 3D is an alternative implementation of WaveTrend that directly addresses some of the known shortcomings of the indicator, including its unbounded extremes, susceptibility to whipsaw, and lack of insight into other timeframes.
In the canonical WT approach, an exponential moving average (EMA) for a given lookback window is used to assess the variability between price and two other EMAs relative to a second lookback window. Since the difference between the average price and its associated EMA is essentially unbounded, an arbitrary scaling factor of 0.015 is typically applied as a crude form of rescaling but still fails to capture 20-30% of values between the range of -100 to 100. Additionally, the trigger signal for the final EMA (i.e., TCI) crossover-based oscillator is a four-bar simple moving average (SMA), which further contributes to the net lag accumulated by the consecutive EMA calculations in the previous steps.
The core idea behind WT3D is to replace the EMA-based crossover system with modern Digital Signal Processing techniques. By assuming that price action adheres approximately to a Gaussian distribution, it is possible to sidestep the scaling nightmare associated with unbounded price differentials of the original WaveTrend method by focusing instead on the alteration of the underlying Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the input series. Furthermore, using a signal processing filter such as a Butterworth Filter, we can eliminate the need for consecutive exponential moving averages along with the associated lag they bring.
Ideally, it is convenient to have the resulting probability distribution oscillate between the values of -1 and 1, with the zero line serving as a median. With this objective in mind, it is possible to borrow a common technique from the field of Machine Learning that uses a sigmoid-like activation function to transform our data set of interest. One such function is the hyperbolic tangent function (tanh), which is often used as an activation function in the hidden layers of neural networks due to its unique property of ensuring the values stay between -1 and 1. By taking the first-order derivative of our input series and normalizing it using the quadratic mean, the tanh function performs a high-quality redistribution of the input signal into the desired range of -1 to 1. Finally, using a dual-pole filter such as the Butterworth Filter popularized by John Ehlers, excessive market noise can be filtered out, leaving behind a crisp moving average with minimal lag.
Furthermore, WT3D expands upon the original functionality of WT by providing:
First-class support for multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis
Kernel-based regression for trend reversal confirmation
Various options for signal smoothing and transformation
A unique mode for visualizing an input series as a symmetrical, three-dimensional waveform useful for pattern identification and cycle-related analysis
█ SETTINGS
This is a summary of the settings used in the script listed in roughly the order in which they appear. By default, all default colors are from Google's TensorFlow framework and are considered to be colorblind safe.
Source: The input series. Usually, it is the close or average price, but it can be any series.
Use Mirror: Whether to display a mirror image of the source series; for visualizing the series as a 3D waveform similar to a soundwave.
Use EMA: Whether to use an exponential moving average of the input series.
EMA Length: The length of the exponential moving average.
Use COG: Whether to use the center of gravity of the input series.
COG Length: The length of the center of gravity.
Speed to Emphasize: The target speed to emphasize.
Width: The width of the emphasized line.
Display Kernel Moving Average: Whether to display the kernel moving average of the signal. Like PCA, an unsupervised Machine Learning technique whereby neighboring vectors are projected onto the Principal Component.
Display Kernel Signal: Whether to display the kernel estimator for the emphasized line. Like the Kernel MA, it can show underlying shifts in bias within a more significant trend by the colors reflected on the ribbon itself.
Show Oscillator Lines: Whether to show the oscillator lines.
Offset: The offset of the emphasized oscillator plots.
Fast Length: The length scale factor for the fast oscillator.
Fast Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the fast oscillator.
Normal Length: The length scale factor for the normal oscillator.
Normal Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the normal frequency.
Slow Length: The length scale factor for the slow oscillator.
Slow Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the slow frequency.
Divergence Threshold: The number of bars for the divergence to be considered significant.
Trigger Wave Percent Size: How big the current wave should be relative to the previous wave.
Background Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background area.
Foreground Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground area.
Background Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background line.
Foreground Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground line.
Custom Transparency: Transparency of the custom colors.
Total Gradient Steps: The maximum amount of steps supported for a gradient calculation is 256.
Fast Bullish Color: The color of the fast bullish line.
Normal Bullish Color: The color of the normal bullish line.
Slow Bullish Color: The color of the slow bullish line.
Fast Bearish Color: The color of the fast bearish line.
Normal Bearish Color: The color of the normal bearish line.
Slow Bearish Color: The color of the slow bearish line.
Bullish Divergence Signals: The color of the bullish divergence signals.
Bearish Divergence Signals: The color of the bearish divergence signals.
█ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
@LazyBear - For authoring the original WaveTrend port on TradingView
@PineCoders - For the beautiful color gradient framework used in this indicator
@veryfid - For the inspiration of using mirrored signals for cycle analysis and using multiple lookback windows as proxies for other timeframes
Stochastic Vix Fix SVIX (Tartigradia)The Stochastic Vix or Stochastic VixFix (SVIX), just like the Williams VixFix, is a realized volatility indicator, and can help in finding market bottoms as well as tops without requiring bollinger bands or any other construct, as the SVIX is bounded between 0-100 which allows for an objective thresholding regardless of the past.
Mathematically, SVIX is the complement of the original Stochastic Oscillator, with such a simple transform reproducing Williams' VixFix and the VIX index signals of high volatility and hence of market bottoms quite accurately but within a bounded 0-100 range. Having a predefined range allows to find markets bottoms without needing to compare to past prices using a bollinger band (Chris Moody on TradingView) nor a moving average (Hesta 2015), as a simple threshold condition (by default above 80) is sufficient to reliably signal interesting entry points at bottoming prices.
Having a predefined range allows to find markets bottoms without needing to compare to past prices using a bollinger band (Chris Moody on TradingView) nor a moving average (Hesta 2015), as a simple threshold condition (by default above 80) is sufficient to reliably signal interesting entry points at bottoming prices.
Indeed, as Williams describes in his paper, markets tend to find the lowest prices during times of highest volatility, which usually accompany times of highest fear.
Although the VixFix originally only indicates market bottoms, the Stochastic VixFix can also indicate good times to exit, when SVIX is at a low value (default: below 20), but just like the original VixFix and VIX index, exit signals are as usual much less reliable than long entries signals, because: 1) mature markets such as SP500 tend to increase over the long term, 2) when market fall, retail traders panic and hence volatility skyrockets and bottom is more reliably signalled, but at market tops, no one is panicking, price action only loses momentum because of liquidity drying up.
Compared to Hesta 2015 strategy of using a moving average over Williams' VixFix to generate entry signals, SVIX generates much fewer false positives during ranging markets, which drastically reduce Hesta 2015 strategy profitability as this incurs quite a lot of losses.
This indicator goes further than the original SVIX, by restoring the smoothed D and second-level smoothed D2 oscillators from the original Stochastic Oscillator, and use a 14-period ZLMA instead of the original 20-period SMA, to generate smoother yet responsive signals compared to using just the raw SVIX (by default, this is disabled, as the original raw SVIX is used to produce more entry signals).
Usage:
Set the timescale to daily or weekly preferably, to reduce false positives.
When the background is highlighted in green or when the highlight disappears, it is usually a good time to enter a long position.
Red background highlighting can be enabled to signal good exit zones, but these generate a lot of false positives.
To further reduce false positives, the SVIX_MA can be used to generate signals instead of the raw SVIX.
For more information on Williams' Vix Fix, which is a strategy published under public domain:
The VIX Fix, Larry Williams, Active Trader magazine, December 2007, web.archive.org
Fixing the VIX: An Indicator to Beat Fear, Amber Hestla-Barnhart, Journal of Technical Analysis, March 13, 2015, ssrn.com
For more information on the Stochastic Vix Fix (SVIX), published under Creative Commons:
Replicating the CBOE VIX using a synthetic volatility index trading algorithm, Dayne Cary and Gary van Vuuren, Cogent Economics & Finance, Volume 7, 2019, Issue 1, doi.org
Note: strangely, in the paper, the authors failed to mention that the SVIX is the complement of the original Stochastic Oscillator, instead reproducing just the original equation. The correct equation for the SVIX was retroengineered by comparing charts they published in the paper with charts generated by this pinescript indicator.
For a more complete indicator, see:
Williams Vix Fix OHLC candles plot indicator (Tartigradia)OHLC candles plot of the Williams VixFix indicator, which allows to draw trend lines.
Williams VixFix is a realized volatility indicator developed by Larry Williams, and can help in finding market bottoms.
Indeed, as Williams describe in his paper, markets tend to find the lowest prices during times of highest volatility, which usually accompany times of highest fear. The VixFix is calculated as how much the current low price statistically deviates from the maximum within a given look-back period.
The Williams VixFix indicator is usually presented as a curve or histogram. The novelty of this indicator is to present the data as a OHLC candles plot: whereas the original Williams VixFix calculation only involves the close value, we here use the open, high and low values as well. This led to some mathematical challenges because some of these calculations led to absurd values, so workarounds had to be found, but in the end I think the result was worth it, it reproduces the VIX chart quite well.
A great additional value of the OHLC chart is that it shows not just the close value, but all the values during the session: open, high and low in addition to close. This allows to draw trend lines and can provide additional information on momentum and sentiment. In addition, other indicators can be used on it, as if it was a price chart, such as RSI indicators (see RSI+ (alt) indicator for example).
For more information on the Vix Fix, which is a strategy published under public domain:
The VIX Fix, Larry Williams, Active Trader magazine, December 2007, web.archive.org
Fixing the VIX: An Indicator to Beat Fear, Amber Hestla-Barnhart, Journal of Technical Analysis, March 13, 2015, ssrn.com
Replicating the CBOE VIX using a synthetic volatility index trading algorithm, Dayne Cary and Gary van Vuuren, Cogent Economics & Finance, Volume 7, 2019, Issue 1, doi.org
This indicator includes only the Williams VixFix as an OHLC candles or bars plot, and price / vixfix candles plot, as well as the typical vixfix histogram. Indeed, it is much more practical for unbounded range indicators to be plotted in their own separate panel, hence why this indicator is released separately, so that it can work and be scaled adequately out of the box.
Note that the there are however no bottom buy signals. For a more complete indicator, which also includes the OHLC candles plots present here, but also bottom signals and Inverse VixFix (top signals), see:
Set Index symbol to SPX, and index_current = false, and timeframe Weekly, to reproduce the original VIX as close as possible by the VIXFIX (use the Add Symbol option, because you want to plot CBOE:VIX on the same timeframe as the current chart, which may include extended session / weekends). With the Weekly timeframe, off days / extended session days should not change much, but with lower timeframes this is important, because nights and weekends can change how the graph appears and seemingly make them different because of timing misalignment when in reality they are not when properly aligned.
Real Woodies CCIAs always, this is not financial advice and use at your own risk. Trading is risky and can cost you significant sums of money if you are not careful. Make sure you always have a proper entry and exit plan that includes defining your risk before you enter a trade.
Ken Wood is a semi-famous trader that grew in popularity in the 1990s and early 2000s due to the establishment of one of the earliest trading forums online. This forum grew into "Woodie's CCI Club" due to Wood's love of his modified Commodity Channel Index (CCI) that he used extensively. From what I can tell, the website is still active and still follows the same core principles it did in the early days, the CCI is used for entries, range bars are used to help trader's cut down on the noise, and the optional addition of Woodie's Pivot Points can be used as further confirmation of support and resistance. This is my take on his famous "Woodie's CCI" that has become standard on many charting packages through the years, including a TradingView sponsored version as one of the many stock indicators provided by TradingView. Woodie has updated his CCI through the years to include several very cool additions outside of the standard CCI. I will have to say, I am a bit biased, but I think this is hands down one of the best indicators I have ever used, and I am far too young to have been part of the original CCI Club. Being a daytrader primarily, this fits right in my timeframe wheel house. Woodie designed this indicator to work on a day-trading time scale and he frequently uses this to trade futures and commodity contracts on the 30 minute, often even down to the one minute timeframe. This makes it unique in that it is probably one of the only daytrading-designed indicators out there that I am aware of that was not a popular indicator, like the MACD or RSI, that was just adopted by daytraders.
The CCI was originally created by Donald Lambert in 1980. Over time, it has become an extremely popular house-hold indicator, like the Stochastics, RSI, or MACD. However, like the RSI and Stochastics, there are extensive debates on how the CCI is actually meant to be used. Some trade it like a reversal indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are considered overbought or oversold, respectively. Others trade it like a typical zero-line cross indicator, where once the value goes above or below the zero-line, a trade should be considered in that direction. Lastly, some treat it as strictly a momentum indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are seen as strong momentum moves and when these values are reached, a new strong trend is establishing in the direction of the move. The CCI itself is nothing fancy, it just visualizes the distance of the closing price away from a user-defined SMA value and plots it as a line. However, Woodie's CCI takes this simple concept and adds to it with an indicator with 5 pieces to it designed to help the trader enter into the highest probability setups. Bear with me, it initially looks super complicated, but I promise it is pretty straight-forward and a fun indicator to use.
1) The CCI Histogram. This is your standard CCI value that you would find on the normal CCI. Woodie's CCI uses a value of 14 for most trades and a value of 20 when the timeframe is equal to or greater than 30minutes. I personally use this as a 20-period CCI on all time frames, simply for the fact that the 20 SMA is a very popular moving average and I want to know what the crowd is doing. This is your coloured histogram with 4 colours. A gray colouring is for any bars above or below the zero line for 1-4 bars. A yellow bar is a "trend bar", where the long period CCI has been above/below the zero line for 5 consecutive bars, indicating that a trend in the current direction has been established. Blue bars above and red bars below are simply 6+n number of bars above or below the zero line confirming trend. These are used for the Zero-Line Reject Trade (explained below). The CCI Histogram has a matching long-period CCI line that is painted the same colour as the histogram, it is the same thing but is used just to outline the Histogram a bit better.
2) The CCI Turbo line. This is a sped-up 6 period CCI. This is to be used for the Zero-Line Reject trades, trendline breaks, and to identify shorter term overbought/oversold conditions against the main trend. This is coloured as the white line.
3) The Least Squares Moving Average Baseline (LSMA) Zero Line. You will notice that the Zero Line of the indicator is either green or red. This is based on when price is above or below the 25-period LSMA on the chart. The LSMA is a 25 period linear regression moving average and is one of the best moving averages out there because it is more immune to noise than a typical MA. Statistically, an LSMA is designed to find the line of best fit across the lookback periods and identify whether price is advancing, declining, or flat, without the whipsaw that other MAs can be privy to. The zero line of the indicator will turn green when the close candle is over the LSMA or red when it is below the LSMA. This is meant to be a confirmation tool only and the CCI Histogram and Turbo Histogram can cross this zero line without any corresponding change in the colour of the zero line on that immediate candle.
4) The +100 and -100 lines are used in two ways. First, they can be used by the CCI Histogram and CCI Turbo as a sort of minor price resistance and if the CCI values cannot get through these, it is considered weakness in that trade direction until they do so. You will notice that both of these lines are multi-coloured. They have been plotted with the ChopZone Indicator, another TradingView built-in indicator. The ChopZone is a trend identification tool that uses the slope and the direction of a 34-period EMA to identify when price is trending or range bound. While there are ~10 different colours, the main two a trader needs to pay attention to are the turquoise/cyan blue, which indicates price is in an uptrend, and dark red, which indicates price is in a downtrend based on the slope and direction of the 34 EMA. All other colours indicate "chop". These colours are used solely for the Zero-Line Reject and pattern trades discussed below. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
5) The +200 and -200 lines are also used in two ways. First, they are considered overbought/oversold levels where if price exceeds these lines then it has moved an extreme amount away from the average and is likely to experience a pullback shortly. This is more useful for the CCI Histogram than the Turbo CCI, in all honesty. You will also notice that these are coloured either red, green, or yellow. This is the Sidewinder indicator portion. The documentation on this is extremely sparse, only pointing to a "relationship between the LSMA and the 34 EMA" (see here: tlc.thinkorswim.com). Since I am not a member of Woodie's CCI Club and never intend to be I took some liberty here and decided that the most likely relationship here was the slope of both moving averages. Therefore, the Sidewinder will be green when both the LSMA and the 34 EMA are rising, red when both are falling, and yellow when they are not in agreement with one another (i.e. one rising/flat while the other is flat/falling). I am a big fan of Dr. Alexander Elder as those who follow me know, so consider this like Woodie's version of the Elder Impulse System. I will fully admit that this version of the Sidewinder is a guess and may not represent the real Sidewinder indicator, but it is next to impossible to find any information on this, so I apologize, but my version does do something useful anyways. This is also to be used only with the Zero-Line Reject trades. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
How to Trade It According to Woodie's CCI Club:
Now that I have all of my components and history out of the way, this is what you all care about. I will only provide a brief overview of the trades in this system, but there are quite a few more detailed descriptions listed in the Woodie's CCI Club pamphlet. I have had little success trading the "patterns" but they do exist and do work on occasion. I just prefer to trade with the flow of the markets rather than getting overly scalpy. If you are interested in these patterns, see the pamphlet here (www.trading-attitude.com), hop into the forums and see for yourself, or check out a couple of the YouTube videos.
1) Zero line cross. As simple as any other momentum oscillator out there. When the long period CCI crosses above or below the zero line open a trade in that direction. Extra confirmation can be had when the CCI Turbo has already broken the +100/-100 line "resistance or support". Trend traders may wish to wait until the yellow "trend confirmation bar" has been printed.
2) Zero Line Reject. This is when the CCI Turbo heads back down to the zero line and then bounces back in the same direction of the prevailing trend. These are fantastic continuation trades if you missed the initial entry either on the zero line cross or on the trend bar establishment. ZLR trades are only viable when you have the ChopZone indicator showing a trend (turquoise/cyan for uptrend, dark red for downtrend), the LSMA line is green for an uptrend or red for a downtrend, and the SideWinder is either green confirming the uptrend or red confirming the downtrend.
3) Hook From Extreme. This is the exact same as the Zero Line Reject trade, however, the CCI Turbo now goes to the +100/-100 line (whichever is opposite the currently established trend) and then hooks back into the established trend direction. Ideally the HFE trade needs to have the Long CCI Histogram above/below the corresponding 100 level and the CCI Turbo both breaks the 100 level on the trend side and when it does break it has increased ~20 points from the previous value (i.e. CCI Histogram = +150 with LSMA, CZ, and SW all matching up and trend bars printed on CCI Histogram, CCI Turbo went to -120 and bounced to +80 on last 2 bars, current bar closes with CCI Turbo closing at +110).
4) Trend Line Break. Either the CCI Turbo or CCI Histogram, whichever you prefer (I find the Turbo a bit more accurate since its a faster value) creates a series of higher highs/lows you can draw a trend line linking them. When the line breaks the trendline that is your signal to take a counter trade position. For example, if the CCI Turbo is making consistently higher lows and then breaks the trendline through the zero line, you can then go short. This is a good continuation trade.
5) The Tony Trade. Consider this like a combination zero line reject, trend line break, and weak zero line cross all in one. The idea is that the SW, CZ, and LSMA values are all established in one direction. The CCI Histogram should be in an established trend and then cross the zero line but never break the 100 level on the new side as long as it has not printed more than 9 bars on the new side. If the CCI Histogram prints 9 or less bars on the new side and then breaks the trendline and crosses back to the original trend side, that is your signal to take a reversal trade. This is best used in the Elder Triple Screen method (discussed in final section) as a failed dip or rip.
6) The GB100 Trade. This is a similar trade as the Tony Trade, however, the CCI Histogram can break the 100 level on the new side but has to have made less than 6 bars on the new side. A trendline break is not necessary here either, it is more of a "pop and drop" or "momentum failure" trade trying in the new direction.
7) The Famir Trade. This is a failed CCI Long Histogram ZLR trade and is quite complicated. I have never traded this but it is in the pamphlet. Essentially you have a typical ZLR reject (i.e. all components saying it is likely a long/short continuation trade), but the ZLR only stays around the 50 level, goes back to the trend side, fails there as well immediately after 1 bar and then rebreaks to the new side. This is important to be considered with the LSMA value matching the side of the trade, so if the Famir says to go long, you need the LSMA indicator to also say to go long.
8) The Vegas Trade. This is essentially a trend-reversal trade that takes into account the LSMA and a cup and handle formation on the CCI Long Histogram after it has reached an extreme value (+200/-200). You will see the CCI Histogram hit the extreme value, head towards the zero line, and then sort of round out back in the direction of the extreme price. The low point where it reversed back in the direction of the extreme can be considered support or resistance on the CCI and once the CCI Long Histogram breaks this level again, with LSMA confirmation, you can take a counter trend trade with a stop under/over the highest/lowest point of the last 2 bars as you want to be out quickly if you are wrong without much damage but can get a huge win if you are right and add later to the position once a new trade has formed.
9) The Ghost Trade. This is nothing more than a(n) (inverse) head and shoulders pattern created on the CCI. Draw a trend line connecting the head and shoulders and trade a reversal trade once the CCI Long Histogram breaks the trend line. Same deal as the Vegas Trade, stop over/under the most recent 2 bar high/low and add later if it is a winner but cut quickly if it is a loser.
Like I said, this is a complicated system and could quite literally take years to master if you wanted to go into the patterns and master them. I prefer to trade it in a much simpler format, using the Elder Triple Screen System. First, since I am a day trader, I look to use the 20 period Woodie's on the hourly and look at the CZ, SW, and LSMA values to make sure they all match the direction of the CCI Long Histogram (a trend establishment is not necessary here). It shows you the hourly trend as your "tide". I then drill down to the 15 minute time frame and use the Turbo CCI break in the opposite direction of the trend as my "wave" and to indicate when there is a dip or rip against the main trend. Lastly, I drill down to a 3 minute time frame and enter when the CCI Long Histogram turns back to match the main trend ("ripple") as long as the CCI Turbo has broken the 100 level in the matched direction.
Enjoy, and please read the pamphlet if you have any questions about the patterns as they are not how I use these and will not be able to answer those questions.
