[COG] Adaptive Squeeze Intensity 📊 Adaptive Squeeze Intensity (ASI) Indicator
🎯 Overview
The Adaptive Squeeze Intensity (ASI) indicator is an advanced technical analysis tool that combines the power of volatility compression analysis with momentum, volume, and trend confirmation to identify high-probability trading opportunities. It quantifies the degree of price compression using a sophisticated scoring system and provides clear entry signals for both long and short positions.
⭐ Key Features
- 📈 Comprehensive squeeze intensity scoring system (0-100)
- 📏 Multiple Keltner Channel compression zones
- 📊 Volume analysis integration
- 🎯 EMA-based trend confirmation
- 🎨 Proximity-based entry validation
- 📱 Visual status monitoring
- 🎨 Customizable color schemes
- ⚡ Clear entry signals with directional indicators
🔧 Components
1. 📐 Squeeze Intensity Score (0-100)
The indicator calculates a total squeeze intensity score based on four components:
- 📊 Band Convergence (0-40 points): Measures the relationship between Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels
- 📍 Price Position (0-20 points): Evaluates price location relative to the base channels
- 📈 Volume Intensity (0-20 points): Analyzes volume patterns and thresholds
- ⚡ Momentum (0-20 points): Assesses price momentum and direction
2. 🎨 Compression Zones
Visual representation of squeeze intensity levels:
- 🔴 Extreme Squeeze (80-100): Red zone
- 🟠 Strong Squeeze (60-80): Orange zone
- 🟡 Moderate Squeeze (40-60): Yellow zone
- 🟢 Light Squeeze (20-40): Green zone
- ⚪ No Squeeze (0-20): Base zone
3. 🎯 Entry Signals
The indicator generates entry signals based on:
- ✨ Squeeze release confirmation
- ➡️ Momentum direction
- 📊 Candlestick pattern confirmation
- 📈 Optional EMA trend alignment
- 🎯 Customizable EMA proximity validation
⚙️ Settings
🔧 Main Settings
- Base Length: Determines the calculation period for main indicators
- BB Multiplier: Sets the Bollinger Bands deviation multiplier
- Keltner Channel Multipliers: Three separate multipliers for different compression zones
📈 Trend Confirmation
- Four customizable EMA periods (default: 21, 34, 55, 89)
- Optional trend requirement for entry signals
- Adjustable EMA proximity threshold
📊 Volume Analysis
- Customizable volume MA length
- Adjustable volume threshold for signal confirmation
- Option to enable/disable volume analysis
🎨 Visualization
- Customizable bullish/bearish colors
- Optional intensity zones display
- Status monitor with real-time score and state information
- Clear entry arrows and background highlights
💻 Technical Code Breakdown
1. Core Calculations
// Base calculations for EMAs
ema_1 = ta.ema(close, ema_length_1)
ema_2 = ta.ema(close, ema_length_2)
ema_3 = ta.ema(close, ema_length_3)
ema_4 = ta.ema(close, ema_length_4)
// Proximity calculation for entry validation
ema_prox_raw = math.abs(close - ema_1) / ema_1 * 100
is_close_to_ema_long = close > ema_1 and ema_prox_raw <= prox_percent
```
### 2. Squeeze Detection System
```pine
// Bollinger Bands setup
BB_basis = ta.sma(close, length)
BB_dev = ta.stdev(close, length)
BB_upper = BB_basis + BB_mult * BB_dev
BB_lower = BB_basis - BB_mult * BB_dev
// Keltner Channels setup
KC_basis = ta.sma(close, length)
KC_range = ta.sma(ta.tr, length)
KC_upper_high = KC_basis + KC_range * KC_mult_high
KC_lower_high = KC_basis - KC_range * KC_mult_high
```
### 3. Scoring System Implementation
```pine
// Band Convergence Score
band_ratio = BB_width / KC_width
convergence_score = math.max(0, 40 * (1 - band_ratio))
// Price Position Score
price_range = math.abs(close - KC_basis) / (KC_upper_low - KC_lower_low)
position_score = 20 * (1 - price_range)
// Final Score Calculation
squeeze_score = convergence_score + position_score + vol_score + mom_score
```
### 4. Signal Generation
```pine
// Entry Signal Logic
long_signal = squeeze_release and
is_momentum_positive and
(not use_ema_trend or (bullish_trend and is_close_to_ema_long)) and
is_bullish_candle
short_signal = squeeze_release and
is_momentum_negative and
(not use_ema_trend or (bearish_trend and is_close_to_ema_short)) and
is_bearish_candle
```
📈 Trading Signals
🚀 Long Entry Conditions
- Squeeze release detected
- Positive momentum
- Bullish candlestick
- Price above relevant EMAs (if enabled)
- Within EMA proximity threshold (if enabled)
- Sufficient volume confirmation (if enabled)
🔻 Short Entry Conditions
- Squeeze release detected
- Negative momentum
- Bearish candlestick
- Price below relevant EMAs (if enabled)
- Within EMA proximity threshold (if enabled)
- Sufficient volume confirmation (if enabled)
⚠️ Alert Conditions
- 🔔 Extreme squeeze level reached (score crosses above 80)
- 🚀 Long squeeze release signal
- 🔻 Short squeeze release signal
💡 Tips for Usage
1. 📱 Use the status monitor to track real-time squeeze intensity and state
2. 🎨 Pay attention to the color gradient for trend direction and strength
3. ⏰ Consider using multiple timeframes for confirmation
4. ⚙️ Adjust EMA and proximity settings based on your trading style
5. 📊 Use volume analysis for additional confirmation in liquid markets
📝 Notes
- 🔧 The indicator combines multiple technical analysis concepts for robust signal generation
- 📈 Suitable for all tradable markets and timeframes
- ⭐ Best results typically achieved in trending markets with clear volatility cycles
- 🎯 Consider using in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for confirmation
⚠️ Disclaimer
This technical indicator is designed to assist in analysis but should not be considered as financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and risk management when trading.
Cerca negli script per "Cycle"
INTELLECT_city - US Presidential Elections Dates (USA)(EN)
It is interesting to compare Halvings Cycles and Presidential elections.
This indicator shows all presidential elections in the USA from the period 2008, and future ones to the date 2044. The indicator will automatically show all future dates of presidential elections.
--
To apply it to your chart it is very easy:
Select:
1) Exchange: BITSTAMP
2) Pair BTC \ USD (Without "T" at the end)
3) Timeframe 1 day
4) In the Browser, switch the chart to Logarithmic (on the right bottom, click the "L" button)
or on mobile, switch to "Logarithmic" we look on the chart: "Gear" - and switch to "Logarithmic"
------------------
(RU)
Интересно сопоставить Циклы Halvings и Президентские выборы.
Данный индикатор показывает все президентские выборы в США с периода 2008 года, и будущие к дате 2044 года. Индикатор будет автоматически показывать все будущие даты .
--
Что бы применить у себя на графике это очень легко:
Выберите:
1) Биржа: BITSTAMP
2) Пара BTC \ USD (Без "T" в конце)
3) Timeframe 1 дневной
4) В Браузере переключить график на Логарифмический (с право внизу кнопка "Л")
или на мобильно переключить на "Логарифмический" ищем на графике: "Шестеренку" — и переключаем на "Логарифмический"
-------------------
(DE)
Es ist interessant, die Halbierungszyklen und die Präsidentschaftswahlen zu vergleichen.
Dieser Indikator zeigt alle US-Präsidentschaftswahlen seit 2008 und zukünftige bis zum Datum 2044. Der Indikator zeigt automatisch alle zukünftigen Präsidentschaftswahltermine an.
--
Es ist sehr einfach, dies auf Ihr Diagramm anzuwenden:
Wählen:
1) Austausch: BITSTAMP
2) Paar BTC \ USD (Ohne das „T“ am Ende)
3) Zeitrahmen 1 Tag
4) Schalten Sie im Browser das Diagramm auf Logarithmisch um (die Schaltfläche „L“ unten rechts).
oder auf dem Mobilgerät auf „Logarithmisch“ umschalten, in der Grafik nach „Getriebe“ suchen – und auf „Logarithmisch“ umschalten
Daily Structure Cycles - Session - PDH/PDLDescription:
The Session Windows indicator visualizes predefined trading sessions on the chart, highlighting key price ranges with customizable background colors and labels. Designed to track session-specific high and low levels, this tool provides visual guidance for analyzing market behavior across different trading windows. It includes three customizable sessions—Asian, Window 1, and Window 2—that can be toggled on or off.
How It Works:
Each session is marked with a colored box, representing the high and low range for that session. Border colors and box transparency can be customized, allowing for easy visual differentiation.
The indicator also displays the high and low levels of the previous day, marked as PDH (Previous Day High) and PDL (Previous Day Low). When the current price crosses these levels, the line style changes, signaling potential support or resistance levels.
Labels for each session high and low are positioned based on the user-defined offset and alignment options, providing easy-to-read markers at the end of each session.
Usage: This indicator helps traders observe price behavior within distinct trading sessions and how the current price interacts with previous day’s highs and lows, which may offer insight into support/resistance zones. Traders can use this tool to spot breakout or reversal points as price moves through session highs/lows or crosses the previous day’s levels.
Customization Options:
Session Settings: Choose session times for Asian, Window 1, and Window 2.
Color Settings: Set different colors for session background and border lines.
Label Positioning: Adjust label offset and vertical position for high/low markers.
PDH/PDL Levels: Toggle lines for previous day’s high and low, with color and line style options.
Limitations: This indicator is designed for visualization purposes and is best used alongside other tools for confirmation, as it does not provide standalone buy or sell signals.
Vlad Waves█ CONCEPT
Acceleration Line (Blue)
The Acceleration Line is calculated as the difference between the 8-period SMA and the 20-period SMA.
This line helps to identify the momentum and potential turning points in the market.
Signal Line (Red)
The Signal Line is an 8-period SMA of the Acceleration Line.
This line smooths out the Acceleration Line to generate clearer signals.
Long-Term Average (Green)
The Long-Term Average is a 200-period SMA of the Acceleration Line.
This line provides a broader context of the market trend, helping to distinguish between long-term and short-term movements.
█ SIGNALS
Buy Mode
A buy signal occurs when the Acceleration Line crosses above the Signal Line while below the Long-Term Average. This indicates a potential bullish reversal in the market.
When the Signal Line crosses the Acceleration Line above the Long-Term Average, consider placing a stop rather than reversing the position to protect gains from potential pullbacks.
Sell Mode
A sell signal occurs when the Acceleration Line crosses below the Signal Line while above the Long-Term Average. This indicates a potential bearish reversal in the market.
When the Signal Line crosses the Acceleration Line below the Long-Term Average, consider placing a stop rather than reversing the position to protect gains from potential pullbacks.
█ UTILITY
This indicator is not recommended for standalone buy or sell signals. Instead, it is designed to identify market cycles and turning points, aiding in the decision-making process.
Entry signals are most effective when they occur away from the Long-Term Average, as this helps to avoid sideways movements.
Use larger timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, for better accuracy and reliability of the signals.
█ CREDITS
The idea for this indicator came from Fabio Figueiredo (Vlad).
Bitcoin Puell Multiple (BPM)The Bitcoin Puell Multiple is a key indicator for evaluating buying and selling opportunities based on the profitability of Bitcoin miners.
The Idea
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple is a ratio that measures the daily profitability of Bitcoin miners in relation to the historical annual average of this profitability. It is calculated by dividing the amount of newly issued Bitcoins (in USD) each day by the 365-day moving average of that same amount. This indicator provides valuable information on Bitcoin's market cycles, helping investors to identify periods when Bitcoin is potentially undervalued or overvalued.
How to Use
To use the Bitcoin Puell Multiple, investors watch for extreme levels of the indicator. A high Puell Multiple suggests that miners are making exceptionally high profits compared to the previous year, which could indicate an overvaluation of Bitcoin and a selling opportunity (red zones). Conversely, a low Puell Multiple indicates that miners' earnings are low relative to history, suggesting an undervaluation of Bitcoin and a potential buying opportunity (green zones). The trigger thresholds for these zones can be configured in the tool's parameters.
What makes this tool different from the other "Puell Multiple" scripts available is that it is up to date in terms of its data sources, with a more precise calculation, and allows you to view the entire history.
Zone trigger limits and their visualization, as well as colors, are all configurable via the tool parameters.
Here, for example, is a configuration with more sensitive trigger levels and a different color:
BTC Halving [YinYangAlgorithms]This Indicator not only estimates what it thinks may be the PRICE for the Start, High and Low of the Halving, but likewise estimates WHEN the Start, High and Low of Halving may be. It then creates Trend Lines based on these predictions so that you may get an evaluation towards if the Price is currently Overbought or Oversold. These Trend Lines may be very useful for seeing the Slope in which the Price may move if it is to reach the estimated Price by the estimated Date. By evaluating the Prices location based on these Trend Lines we may determine if the Price is currently Overbought or Oversold.
These Trend Lines likewise may help identify locations of Support and Resistance. If the Price is much higher than its current Trend Line it is Overbought. There is a chance it will Consolidate back to the Trend Line or it may even correct with a dump all the way back to it; the opposite is true if it is much lower than its current Trend Line.
Trend Lines and Estimates are not all that is featured within this Indicator however. There are also Price Zones which may help identify if the price is currently:
Very Overbought (Red)
Slightly Overbought (Orange)
Neutral (Yellow)
Slightly Oversold (Teal)
Very Oversold (Green)
These zones may help give you an idea of how the price is currently fairing and its potential for movement. Likewise, it may help define where Support and Resistance may be found.
The trend line estimates are done with an algorithm created to evaluate the difference between price and % change that has occurred between the Start, High and Low of all the halvings over how many days between each data type. This may allow us to make an educated estimate towards what Price and Date the Start, High and Low will occur at.
Our Zones are created by evaluating the current Market Cap and circulating supply vs Max Supply of BTC. This may help give us an evaluation of what Price may be considered to be Overbought and Oversold; and likewise may help with estimations of where there may be Support and Resistance based on these Zones.
Tutorial:
In the example above we’re displaying the Halving Start Trend Line, our Information Tables and our Estimated Halving Vertical Marker. This Trend Line may help to display not only the trajectory and slope the Price needs to take to reach the Estimated Halving Price by the Estimated Halving Date; but it may also help to show if the price is Overvalued or Undervalued based on its position above or below this Trend Line.
Based on the Trajectory of the Estimated High Upward Trend Line (Green Line) in the photo above and from the ‘High Date’ estimated in the Information tables; we may attempt to estimate the location the ATH of this Bull Market will create and the price slope it may follow in doing so. This Trajectory may be very useful for understanding the price action that may occur for it to reach the High estimated Price by the High estimated Date.
We currently allow for two different types of zones within our Settings, one called ‘Fast’ displayed in the example above; and the other called ‘Slow’ displayed in the example below.
Our Fast Zone aims to move the Zone Levels Faster in an attempt to move with volatility and parabolic movement. This may help to keep the Very Overbought (Red) and Very OverSold (Green) Levels more accurate by attempting to keep the price within them. By doing so, we may aim to keep all of the Slightly Overbought, Slightly Oversold and Neutral Levels more accurate as well.
The Levels within these zones are defined by the Bright (less transparent) Lines. Whereas the Darker (more transparent) lines represent the Basis Lines between two different levels. These Basis lines may likewise act as a Support and Resistance Location too, but generally hold less weight than the actual Levels themselves.
What you may see is that during the Bull Market, the price is within the very Overbought Zones and even touches again the Very Overbought Level a few times. Likewise, during the Bear Market, the price is within the very Oversold Zones and even slightly drops below the Very Oversold Level. This may be expected and likewise may help to give estimates at potential for growth and decay within the Price based on which condition the Market is within.
Slow Zones move a little slower than Fast Zones, however they may still be accurate. Likewise, it is up to you to decide which Zone works better for your specific Trading Style; however, by default, the Zone type is set to Fast.
If you refer to both the Fast and Slow examples above, you may notice in the Fast the Price is only slightly above the ‘Slightly Oversold’ (Teal) line. Also, In the Fast, the Price where the ‘Very Overbought’ Level is 100k. This is one of the many reasons we’ve opted for ‘Fast’ as the default, and it is because it allows more room for movement; and in our opinion, potentially accuracy as well.
If you refer to the Slow example, you’ll see that the price is currently facing the Neutral Level as a Resistance location. However, if you refer to the price residing at the Slows ‘Very Overbought’ Level, it is only 81.5k, compared to the 100k of Fast.
The BTC Halving is a major event that takes place roughly every 4 years. It historically has a major impact on the market, and some may even say it signifies the Start, or close to start of the Bull Market. Therefore, since historically there may be cycles that BTC and potentially crypto itself follows, we’ve developed this Indicator in hopes that it may solve one of the biggest questions traders face. What Date will the Start, High and Low of the Halving occur and also at what Price.
Hopefully this Tutorial has given you some guidance as to how this Indicator may be used to help identify some of these key levels; including the slope at which the price may have to move if it is to reach its projection Price by its projected Date.
Settings:
1. Show Prediction Trend Lines:
- Options:
All
Start + High
Start + Low
High + Low
Start
High
Low
None
- Description:
Prediction Trend Lines may be an important way to see the Slope the Price needs to take to reach the Predicted Price by the Predicted Date. This may be useful for identifying if the Price is currently Overbought or Oversold.
2. Zone Type:
- Options:
Fast
Slow
- Description:
Zone types change the way the Zones expand.
3. Show Zones:
- Options:
All
Zones
Basis
None
- Description:
Zones are a way of seeing Overbought and Oversold Price locations based on Market Cap and Circulating Supply vs Max Supply.
4. Vertical Markers:
- Options:
All
Line
Label
None
- Description:
Vertical Markers display where the Halving has occurred with a Vertical Line and Label.
5. Show Tables:
Tables may be useful for seeing the Price and Date for when the Start, High and Low of the Halving may occur.
6. Fill Zones:
Filling in Zones may help to identify which Zone the Price is currently in.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
3x MTF MACD v3.0MACD's on 3 different Time Frames
Indicator Information
- Each Time Frame shows start of Trend and end of trend of the MACD vs the Signal Cross
- They are labled 1,2,3 with respective up or down triangle for possible direction.
User Inputs
- configure the indicator by specifying various inputs. These inputs include colors for bullish
and bearish conditions, the time frame to use, whether to show a Simple Moving Average
(SMA) line, and other parameters.
- Users can choose time frames for analysis (like 30 minutes, 1 hour, etc.)
but they must be in mintues.
- The code also allows users to customize how the indicator looks on the chart by providing
options for position and color.
Main Calculations
- The script calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) based on the user-defined time
frame.
- It then determines the color of the plot (line) based on certain conditions, such as whether
the SMA is rising or falling. These conditions help users quickly identify market trends.
Label Creation
- The code creates labels that can be displayed on the chart.
These labels indicate whether there's a bullish or bearish signal.
Level Detection
- The script determines and labels key levels or points of interest in the chart based on
certain conditions.
- It can show labels like "①" and "▲" for bullish conditions and "▼" for bearish conditions.
Table Display
- There's an option to show a table on the chart that displays information about the MACD
indicator Chosen and the NUmber Bubble assocated with that time frame
- The table can include information like which time frame is being analyzed, whether the SMA
line is shown, and other relevant data.
Plotting on the Chart
- The script plots the Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the chart. The color of this line
changes based on the calculated trend conditions.
ATR (Average True Range)
- The script also plots the Average True Range (ATR) on the chart. ATR is used to measure
market volatility.
"In essence, this script is a highly customizable MACD and SMA indicator for traders. It assists traders in comprehending market trends, offering insights into different MACD cycles concerning various timeframes.
Users can configure it to match their trading strategies, and it presents information in a user-friendly manner with colors, labels, and tables.
This simplifies market analysis, allowing traders to make more informed decisions without the distraction of multiple indicators."
Time Cycles IndicatorThis script is used to analyze the seasonality of any asset (commodities, stocks, indices).
To use the script select a timeframe D or W and select the months you are interested in the script settings. You will see all the candles that are part of those months highlighted in the chart.
You can use this script to understand if assets have a cyclical behavior in certain months of the year.
DB ZEMAThe DB ZEMA indicator is a no repaint indicator that is designed to local trends and local tops/bottoms. Since the indicator does not repaint, decisions can be made upon bar/period OPEN.
That means, when the indicator turns red indicating a market top is finished, then a decision can be made to close at the OPEN of that period. Likewise, when the indicator turns green, a decision can be made to buy at OPEN or during the current bar.
Additionally, traders may use the ZEMA level to get insight on the strength of the asset. For example, when the ZEMA is below -50 that would indicate a major low or weakness is present. ZEMAs under a certain threshold can indicate very good investment long entry points. Alternatively, zooming the chart out to view a long range of periods can show a pattern of common low ZEMA levels can be used as a baseline for good entry points. The same holds true for existing a long or entering a short.
Using a combination of the ZEMA color and the ZEMA level it's can be easy to tell smart entry and exist points. Especially on the weekly or higher timeframes.
For traders wanting real time data, there is a setting to disable the no-repaint mode to display the current real time ZEMA value. Traders may also adjust the length. By default the length of 10 is provided which is excellent for Weekly. We recommend a length of less than 10 for even high timeframes. For example a length of 2 is excellent on 4 Month timeframe for looking at market cycles, etc.
Finally the indicator offers the ability to change the symbol. This can be helpful in crypto in comparing the chart asset again BTC or similar.
Enjoy!
Hani angle support and resistanceBy examining the intersections of the average price in the past, this indicator identifies points as support and resistance, according to which it determines a diagonal line to the last average price in the future.
As you can see in the picture, these points are more important than floors and ceilings, and they can be cited more
According to the 360-period cycles of the market, it has the best performance
In this indicator, there are two lines that show the average price in different periods.
Ingulf candles and the pattern of three return candles are used for the signal
In the scalp model, the pattern of three consecutive candles and one engulfing candle is used
In the model of circles, Engulfing candle is also used according to algo
By default, this stop loss calculation is twice the size of the signal candle, which you can change according to the type of transaction.
Enter the amount of your balance and change the amount of contract size according to the currency
For example, the contract size is Bitcoin (1) and the contract size is EURUSD (100,000) and XAUUSD (100) and enter the amount of risk in each transaction.
At the time of the signal, you will see the exact size required to enter the transaction (not including the commission, because each exchange has a different commission and a different spread).
For a better view of the market, you can pay special attention to the distance and angle of the two lines.
Support and resistance lines are continuously displayed for 500 candles to be considered in the future of the market
This indicator requires basic knowledge of candlestick and it is better for the trader to make the final decision according to the market situation. However, an alarm has also been set that sends the stop loss amount for use in the web hook.
The price at the moment of the signal is also alarmed for comparison so that the signal can be compared at the time of the alarm.
The size of the ATR band is used to measure the wave if the waves are large enough to send cleaner signals.
The green label: distance between the last intersection and the average price.
The yellow label: distance between two periods of the average price
White label: lot size to enter the market
pink label: ATR size
Fair Value Gap Oscillator (Expo)█ Overview
The Fair Value Gap Oscillator (Expo) is an indicator based on the concept of Fair Value Gaps. It is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify mispricings in the market over time. The indicator also incorporates volume and volatility to increase its accuracy further. The indicator can be used in both trending and range-bound markets.
FVG occurs when there is an insufficient amount of buyers and sellers in the market for a particular asset. This can cause a sudden and large gap in the asset price, creating an imbalance in the price. This gap can be large enough to prevent traders from entering the market to take advantage of the price discrepancy. This, in turn, leads to a lack of liquidity and further price volatility.
█ How is the Fair Value Gap Oscialltor calculated?
The Fair Value Gap Oscillator is calculated by using historical Fair Value Gapa, volume, and volatility to determine if the market is trading at a discount or premium relative to its historical fair value. It is based on the idea that prices move in fair value cycles and that by looking at the oscillations of FVG data over time, traders can get a deeper insight into how imbalances impact the price over time.
█ Oscillator Trading
Oscillators are technical indicators that are used to measure momentum within a given market. These indicators measure the speed and magnitude of price movements. Traders use oscillators to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. They may look for overbought and oversold conditions, or they may look for divergence between the price of an asset and its oscillator. When these signals are identified, traders can then enter or exit positions accordingly.
█ How to use
It is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify mispricings in the market over time. In addition, the FVG Oscialltor can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market, as well as trends and leading trend changes.
Trending Indicator
The Fair Value Gap Oscillator can also be used to identify trends in the market. By tracking the FVG over time, investors can identify whether the market is trending up or down.
Leading Indicator
This indicator can be used to identify leading changes in the market’s momentum and price action. It will indicate beforehand when the momentum decreases and a potential trend change is about to come.
Divergences
Leading Indicators are great for identifying divergences. This Fair Value Gap Oscillator is a powerful yet simple tool to spot divergences in the market.
It is important to remember that the Fair Value Gap Oscillator is just one tool in your investment toolbox. It should be used in conjunction with other smart money concept indicators to identify excellent trading opportunities.
█ Indicator Features
Trend FVG
A Trend FVG feature is added to help Trend Traders get a long-term overview of the FVG trend. This feature can be used for the leading FVG calculation to get a predictive FVG trend.
Leading FVG Calculation
The leading calculation makes the Fair Value Gap oscillator sensitive to fair value changes and becomes more leading.
Trend Line
The Trend line feature is a combination of the leading and the long-term trend that can be used as trend confirmation.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OECD CLI Diffusion IndexWhat does the indicator measure?
This is a macro indicator. It uses OECD's composite leading indicator - see details about the CLI below.
What it does it calculate YoY changes for CLI of 38 countries that are members or are associated with the OECD. Then it measures a percent of countries which CLI is rising.
How this can be used?
The positive slope of the curve means that there probably will be an economic growth among those countries within next 6 - 9 months. The negative slope means there probably will be an economic contraction.
Forward-looking economic growth is correlated with positive S&P 500 YoY growth (equity markets are also forward looking). The chart above presents the CLI diffusion index with overlayed S&P500 YoY rate of change.
The CLI is also correlated with ISM PMI - see example below:
What is a CLI?
"The OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles - fluctuation in the output gap, i.e. fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. This approach, focusing on turning points (peaks and troughs), results in CLIs that provide qualitative rather than quantitative information on short-term economic movements."
Mechanical Switch DetectorThis script reads volume as a voltage and picks up the mechanical signal of a switch. Instead of looking at the light globe to see when it turns on, this picks up the surge/pattern created when flicking on the switch. This picks up chart movements/cycles directly from the switches used in the ticker machine.. Faster than light.
Adjust "len" in the settings to select the sensitivity of the current used to calculate the threshold. 20 is default but try lengths of 200 or even 6 for smaller surges of current. This script assumes the ticker data is an analogue signal and picks up mechanical responses that are embedded within this signal. Nothing is random.
Time TradesThese indicators are part of the Time Trades service.
This script includes 2 timing indicators:
* Cheat Code displays green and purple timing periods
* Gann Waves displays yellow and blue vertical bars
Both indicators are based on natural cycles, and are visible into the future.
Visibility of both indicators is controlled via the Settings menu.
Cheat Code:
* Displays green periods and purple periods.
* Prices seem to trend more within a green period, both up and down.
* Often there’s major pivots around the middle of a green period, and about 3/4 through.
* Prices seem to chop more within a purple period with lots of volatility and reversals.
* Thin light grey lines appear at regular intervals that tend to align with local pivots.
* Thick grey lines appear around the middle of the green period that tens to align with major pivots
* You can use this information to vary your trading strategy to better match the expected price behavior.
Gann Waves
* Displays yellow and purple vertical bands that tend to align with local pivots.
* You can match this up with the symbol you’re analyzing to see what patterns tend to happen during similar periods.
* Sometimes stocks will make local highs for 3-4 yellow periods in a row, and then make a lower high. This would indicate a potential change in trend.
Stochastic DotsThese Stochastic Dots can help show potential turning points and cycles in the market.
- The smaller dots are based off of a faster moving stochastic
- The bigger dots are based off of a longer moving stochastic
- Dots below the candle/bar are bullish
- Dots above the candle/bar are bearish
This indicator is not meant to be traded by itself. Use other forms of confluency and confirmation with it.
If you're interested in more customized indicators to suit your needs, feel free to message me.
Cycle Channel Oscillator [LazyBear]Here's an oscillator derived from my previous script, Cycle Channel Clone ().
There are 2 oscillator plots - fast & slow. Fast plot shows the price location with in the medium term channel, while slow plot shows the location of short term midline of cycle channel with respect to medium term channel.
Usage of this is similar to %b oscillator. The slow plot can be considered as the signal line.
Bar colors can be enabled via options page. When short plot is above 1.0 or below 0, they are marked purple (both histo and the bar color) to highlight the extreme condition.
This makes use of the default 10/30 values of Cycle Channel, but may need tuning for your instrument.
More info:
List of my free indicators: bit.ly
List of my app-store indicators: blog.tradingview.com (More info: bit.ly)
Cycle IndicatorA cycle indicator using a combination of hull and simple moving average, makes divergence very easy to see, colors are paired up when on either side of a trend when in a down trend uses red, with green for a pull back and when in up trend uses lime with maroon for the pull back, time entry when pull backs are back over zero line
Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model v3.1🔶 First we need to understand what Power Laws are.
Power laws are mathematical relationships where one quantity varies as a power of another. They are prevalent in both natural and social systems, describing phenomena such as earthquake magnitudes, word frequencies, and wealth distributions. In a power-law relationship, a change in one quantity results in a proportional change in another, typically following a consistent and predictable mathematical pattern.
🔶 Why Do Power Laws work for Bitcoin and Kaspa?
Power laws work for Bitcoin and Kaspa due to the underlying principles of network dynamics and growth patterns that these cryptocurrencies exhibit. Here's how:
1. Network Growth and User Adoption:
Both Bitcoin and Kaspa grow as more users join their networks. The value of these networks often increases in a manner consistent with Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users. This relationship is a form of a power law, where network effects lead to exponential growth as more users participate.
2. Mining and Hash Rate:
The mining difficulty and hash rate in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Kaspa adjust based on network activity. As more miners join, the difficulty increases to maintain a stable rate of block production. This self-adjusting mechanism creates feedback loops that can be described by power laws, ensuring the stability and security of the network over time.
3. Price Behavior:
Astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi discovered that Bitcoin’s price follows a power-law distribution over time. This means that despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior is predictable and adheres to specific mathematical patterns. Santostasi's model provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin’s price movements and forecasting future trends. He also discovered that Kaspa might be following a power-law aswell but it might be to early to tell because Kaspa hasn't been around for too long(2years).
4. Resource Allocation and System Stability:
As the price of Bitcoin or Kaspa increases, more resources are allocated to mining, leading to more sophisticated mining operations. This iterative process of investment and technological advancement follows a power-law pattern, driving the growth and stability of the network.
In summary, the application of power laws to Bitcoin and Kaspa offers a structured framework for understanding their price movements, network growth, and overall stability. These principles provide valuable predictive tools for long-term forecasting, helping to explain the dynamic behavior of these cryptocurrencies.
🔶 What does it look like on a chart?
Here is the Kaspa power law plotted on the KaspaUSD chart. Notice that the y-axis is in logarithmic scale. Unfortunately, TradingView does not allow the x-axis to be in logarithmic scale, which would otherwise make the power law appear as a straight line.
🔶 All the features of the Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model
This indicator includes a variety of scripts and tools, meticulously designed and developed to navigate the Kaspa market effectively.
🔹 Power Law & Deviation bands
The decision to use the lower two bands, marking an area between -40% to -50% below the power law, is based on historical analysis. Historically, this range has proven to be a great buying opportunity. In the case of Bitcoin, the bottom typically lies around -60% from the power law. However, for Kaspa, the bottom appears to be less distant from the power law. This discrepancy can be attributed to the differing supply dynamics of the two. Bitcoin undergoes a halving event approximately every four years, significantly reducing the rate at which new coins are introduced into circulation. This cyclical halving can lead to larger price fluctuations and a greater deviation from the power law. In contrast, Kaspa employs a more gradual reduction in its emission rate, with a 5% decrease each month. This consistent and incremental reduction helps Kaspa's price follow the power law more closely, resulting in less pronounced deviations. Consequently, the bottom for Kaspa tends to be closer to the power law, typically around -40% to -50%, rather than the -60% observed with Bitcoin.
The top two deviation bands are fitted to a few bubble data points, which are honestly not very reliable compared to the bottom bands that are based on a larger number of data points. When examining Bitcoin, we see that the bottoms are quite predictable due to the availability of thousands of data points, making it easier to identify patterns and trends.
However, predicting the tops is significantly more challenging because we lack a substantial amount of data for the peaks. This limited data makes it difficult to draw reliable conclusions about the upper deviation bands. As a result, while the bottom bands offer a robust framework for analysis, the top bands should be approached with caution due to their lesser reliability.
🔹 Alternating Sine wave
In observing the price behavior of Kaspa, an intriguing pattern emerges: it tends to follow a roughly four-month cycle. This cycle appears to alternate between smaller and larger waves. To capture this pattern, the sine wave in our indicator is designed to follow the power law, with both the top and bottom of the wave adjusting according to it.
Here's a simple explanation of how this works:
1. Four-Month Cycle: Empirically, Kaspa’s price seems to oscillate over approximately 120 days. This cycle includes periods of growth and decline, repeating every four months. Within these cycles, we observe alternating phases one smaller and one larger in amplitude.
2. Power Law Influence: The sine wave component of our indicator is not arbitrary; it follows a power law that predicts the general price trend of Kaspa. The power law essentially provides a baseline that reflects the longer-term price trajectory.
3. Diminishing Returns and Smoothing: To model diminishing returns, we adjust the amplitude of the sine wave over time, making it smaller as the cycle progresses. This helps to capture the natural tendency for price movements to become less volatile over longer periods. Additionally, the bottom of the sine wave adheres to the power law, ensuring it remains consistent with the overall trend.
🔹 Sine wave Cycle Start & End
Color transitions play a crucial role in visualizing different phases of the four-month cycle.
Based on empirical data, Kaspa experiences approximately 60 days of downward price action following each cycle peak, a period we refer to as the bear phase. This phase is followed by the bull phase, which also lasts around 60 days. To indicate the cycle peak, we have added a colored warning on the sine wave.
Cycle Start (Purple): The sine wave starts with a purple color, marking the beginning of a new cycle. This bull phase often represents a potential bottom or accumulation zone where prices are lower and stable, offering a strategic point for entering the market.
Cycle Top (Red): As the cycle progresses, the sine wave transitions through colors until it reaches red. This red phase indicates the top of the cycle, where the price is likely peaking. It's a critical area for investors to consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) out of Kaspa, as it signifies a period of potential overvaluation and heightened risk.
These color transitions provide a visual guide to the market's cyclical nature, helping investors identify optimal entry and exit points. By following the sine wave's color changes, you can better time your investments, entering at the start of the cycle and considering exits as the cycle tops out.
🔹 Colored Deviation from the Power Law Bubbles
In trading, having a clear visual signal can significantly enhance decision-making, especially when dealing with complex models like power laws. This inspired the creation of the "deviation bubbles" in my indicator, which provides an intuitive, color-coded visual queue to help me, and other traders, better grasp market deviations and make timely trading decisions.
Here's a breakdown of how the deviation bubbles work:
1. Power Law Reference: The core of the indicator calculates a theoretical price level (the power law price) for Kaspa.
2. Deviation Calculation: For each day, the indicator computes the percentage deviation of the actual closing price from this power law price. This tells how much the market price diverges from the theoretically expected level.
3. Color-Coding Based on Deviation:
The deviation is categorized into various ranges (e.g., ≥ 100%, 90-100%, 80-90%, etc.).
Each range is assigned a distinct color, from red for extreme positive deviations to blue for extreme negative deviations.
This gradient helps in quickly identifying significant market deviations.
By integrating these bubbles into the chart, the indicator offers a simple yet powerful visual tool, aiding in recognizing critical market conditions without the need to delve into complex calculations manually. This approach not only enhances the ease of trading but also helps in overcoming the hesitation often faced when pulling the trigger on trades.
🔹 Projected Power Law Bands
Extends the current power law bands into the future using the same formula that defines the current power law.
Visual Representation: Dotted lines on the chart indicate the projected power law price and deviation bands.
Limitations: TradingView restricts how far these projections can extend, typically up to a reasonable future period.
These projected bands help anticipate future price movements, aiding in more informed trading decisions.
🔹 Projected Sine Wave
This projection continues to calculate the phase and amplitude, adjusting for diminishing returns and cycle transitions. It also estimates the future power law price, ensuring the projection reflects potential market dynamics.
Visual Representation: The projected sine wave is shown with dotted blue lines, providing a clear visual of the expected trend, aiding traders in their decision-making process.
Limitations: Again, TradingView restricts how far these projections can extend, typically up to a reasonable future period.
🔶 Why are all these different scripts made into one indicator?
As a trader and crypto analyst, I needed specific tools and customizations that no other indicator offered. Being a visual person, I rely heavily on visual triggers such as colors and patterns to make trading decisions. Initially, I developed this indicator for my personal use to enhance my market analysis with these visual cues. However, after sharing my insights, other traders expressed interest in using it. In response, I expanded the functionality and added various options to cater to a broader range of users.
This comprehensive indicator integrates multiple features into one tool, providing a powerful and flexible solution for analyzing market trends and making informed trading decisions. The use of colors and visual elements helps in quickly identifying key signals and market phases. The customizable options allow you to fine-tune the indicator to suit your specific needs, making it a versatile tool for both novice and experienced traders.
🔶 Usage & Settings:
This indicator is best used on the Daily chart for KASUSD - crypto because it uses a power law formula based on days.
🔹 Using the Indicator for 4-Month Cycles:
For traders interested in playing the 4-month cycles, this indicator provides a straightforward strategy. When the bubbles turn purple or the sine wave shows the purple start color, it signals a good time to dollar-cost average (DCA) into the market. Conversely, when the bubbles turn red or the cycle top is near, indicated by a red color, it’s time to DCA out of the Kaspa market. This visual approach helps traders make timely decisions based on color-coded signals, simplifying the trading process.
Historically, it was nearly impossible to accurately time all the 4-month cycle tops because they alternate each time. Without the combination of multiple scripts in this indicator, identifying these cyclical patterns and their respective peaks was extremely challenging. This integrated tool now provides a clear and reliable method for detecting these critical points, enhancing trading effectiveness.
🔹 Combining the visual queues for market extremes
The chart above illustrates the alignment of visual cues indicating market extremes. Notably, these visual cues—marked by red and purple boxes—historically pinpoint areas of extreme value or opportunities. When red aligns with red and purple aligns with purple, these zones have consistently indicated significant market extremes.
Understanding and recognizing these patterns provides a strategic advantage. By identifying these visual triggers, traders can plan and execute informed trades with greater confidence whenever similar scenarios unfold in the future.
Kaspa is perhaps one of the most cyclical and predictable cryptocurrencies in the market. Given its consistent behavior, traders might wonder why they would trade anything else. As long as there are no signs indicating a change in Kaspa's cyclical nature, there is no reason to make significant alterations to our predictions. This makes Kaspa an attractive option for traders seeking reliable and repeatable trading opportunities.
🔹 Settings & customization:
As a visually-oriented trader, it is essential to customize the appearance of indicators to effectively navigate the Kaspa market. The Indicator offers extensive customization options, allowing users to modify the colors of various elements to suit their preferences. For example, users can adjust the colors of the deviation bubbles, deviation bands, sine wave, and power law to enhance visual clarity and focus on specific data points. This level of personalization not only enhances the overall user experience but also ensures that the visual representation aligns with unique trading strategies, making it easier to interpret complex market data.
Additionally, users can change the power law inputs and other parameters as shown in the image. For instance, the Power Law Intercept and Power Law Slope can be manually adjusted, allowing traders to update these values. This flexibility is crucial as the future power law for Kaspa may evolve/change.
🔶 Limitations
Like any technical analysis tool, the Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model indicator has limitations. It's based on historical data, which may not always accurately predict future market movements.
🔶 Credits
I want to thank Dr. Giovanni Santostasi · Professor of physics and Mathematics.
He was one of the first who applied the concept of the power law to Bitcoin's price movements, which has been instrumental in providing insights into the long-term growth and potential future value of Bitcoin. Giovanni also offers coding classes on his Discord, which I attended. He personally taught me how to code specific things in Pine Editor and Python, sparking my interest in developing my own indicator.
Additionally, I would like to extend my gratitude to the following individuals for their invaluable contributions in terms of ideas, theories, formulas, testing, and guidance:
Forgowork, PlanC, Miko Genno, Chancellor, SavingFace, Kaspapero, JJ Venema.
Ehlers Band-Pass FilterHeyo,
This indicator is an original translation from Ehlers' book "Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced".
First, I describe the indicator as usual and later you can find a very insightful quote of the book.
Key Features
Signal Line: Represents the output of the band-pass filter, highlighting the dominant cycle in the data.
Trigger Line: A leading indicator derived from the signal line, providing early signals for potential market reversals.
Dominant Cycle: Measures the dominant cycle period by counting the number of bars between zero crossings of the band-pass filter output.
Calculation:
The band-pass filter is implemented using a combination of high-pass and low-pass filters.
The filter's parameters, such as period and bandwidth, can be adjusted to tune the filter to specific market cycles.
The signal line is normalized using an Automatic Gain Control (AGC) to provide consistent amplitude regardless of price swings.
The trigger line is derived by applying a high-pass filter to the signal line, creating a leading
waveform.
Usage
The indicator is effective in identifying peaks and valleys in the market data.
It works best in cyclic market conditions and may produce false signals during trending periods.
The dominant cycle measurement helps traders understand the prevailing market cycle length, aiding in better decision-making.
Quoted from the Book
Band-Pass Filters
“A little of the data narrowly passed,” said Tom broadly.
Perhaps the least appreciated and most underutilized filter in technical analysis is the band-pass filter. The band-pass filter simultaneously diminishes the amplitude at low frequencies, qualifying it as a detrender, and diminishes the amplitude at high frequencies, qualifying it as a data smoother.
It passes only those frequency components from input to output in which the trader is interested. The filtering produced by a band-pass filter is superior because the rejection in the stop bands is related to its bandwidth. The degree of rejection of undesired frequency components is called selectivity. The band-stop filter is the dual of the band-pass filter. It rejects a band of frequency components as a notch at the output and passes all other frequency components virtually unattenuated. Since the bandwidth of the deep rejection in the notch is relatively narrow and since the spectrum of market cycles is relatively broad due to systemic noise, the band-stop filter has little application in trading.
Measuring the Cycle Period
The band-pass filter can be used as a relatively simple measurement of the dominant cycle.
A cycle is complete when the waveform crosses zero two times from the last zero crossing. Therefore, each successive zero crossing of the indicator marks a half cycle period. We can establish the dominant cycle period as twice the spacing between successive zero crossings.
When we measure the dominant cycle period this way, it is best to widen the pass band of the band-pass filter to avoid distorting the measurement simply due to the selectivity of the filter. Using an input bandwidth of 0.7 produces an octave-wide pass band. For example, if the center period of the filter is 20 and the relative bandwidth is 0.7, the bandwidth is 14. That means the pass band of the filter extends from 13-bar periods to 27-bar periods.
That is, roughly an octave exists because the longest period is twice the shortest period of the pass band. It is imperative that a high-pass filter is tuned one octave below the half-bandwidth edge of the band-pass filter to ensure a nominal zero mean of the filtered output. Without a zero mean, the zero crossings can have a substantial error.
Since the measurement of the dominant cycle can vary dramatically from zero crossing to zero
crossing, the code limits the change between measurements to be no more than 25 percent.
While measuring the changing dominant cycle period via zero crossings of the band-pass waveform is easy, it is not necessarily the most accurate method.
Best regards,
simwai
Good Luck with your trading! 🙌
Bitcoin Destiny Line Model v1.1The Bitcoin Destiny Line Model
Table of Contents
1. Overview
2. Analytical and Technical Techniques Employed
3. Objectives of the Bitcoin Destiny Line Model
4. Key Technical Components and Functionalities
4.1. Bitcoin Destiny Line and Heatmap
4.2. Halving Cycles Markers
4.3. Dynamic Repricing Rails with Diminishing Volatility Adjustment
4.4. Seasonal Dynamics
4.5. Support and Resistance Zones
4.6. Market Action Indicators
4.7. Cycle Projections
4.8. Heatmap Only
5. Settings
6. Different Strategies to Utilize the Model
6.1. Value-Based Entry Strategy
6.2. Long-Term Position Strategy
6.3. Scaling Out Strategy
6.4. Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy
6.5. Bear Market Strategy
6.6. Short-Term Trading Strategy
7. Recommendations and Disclosures
1. Overview
The Bitcoin Destiny Line Model is a technical analysis toolset designed exclusively for Bitcoin. It integrates a comprehensive suite of analytical methodologies to provide deep insights into Bitcoin's market dynamics focusing on long-term investment strategies.
By analyzing historical data through various technical frameworks, the model helps investors gain insight into the current market structure, cycle dynamics, direction, and trend of Bitcoin, assisting investors and traders with data-driven decision-making.
2. Analytical and Technical Techniques Employed
The model integrates a range of analytical techniques:
Cycle Analysis - Centers on the Bitcoin halving event to anticipate phases within the Bitcoin cycle.
Logarithmic Regression Analysis - Calculates the logarithmic growth of Bitcoin over time.
Standard Deviation - Measures how significantly the price action differs from the long-term logarithmic trend.
Fibonacci Analysis - Identifies support and resistance levels.
Multi-Timeframe Momentum - Analyzes overbought or oversold conditions across multiple periods.
Trendlines - Draws trendlines from expected cycle lows to expected cycle highs extending logarithmic and deviation lines into the future as projection lines.
3. Objectives of the Bitcoin Destiny Line Model
The model is crafted to deliver an empirical framework for Bitcoin investing:
Bitcoin Market Structure - Offers insights into Bitcoin’s market structure.
Identify Value Opportunities and Risk Areas - Pinpoints potential value-entry opportunities and recognizes when the market is over-extended.
Leverage Market Cycles - Utilizes knowledge of Bitcoin’s seasonal dynamics and halving cycles to inform investment strategies.
Mitigate Downside Risk - Provides indicators for potential market corrections, aiding in risk management and avoidance of buying at peak prices.
4. Key Technical Components and Functionalities
4.1. Bitcoin Destiny Line and Heatmap
The cycle low to cycle high line with a risk-based color-coded heatmap serves as a central reference for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
It emphasizes the long-term trend indicating areas of value in cool colors and areas of risk in warm colors.
4.2. Halving Cycles Markers
Bitcoin halving events are marked on the chart with vertical lines forming anchor points for cycle analysis.
4.3. Dynamic Repricing Rails with Diminishing Volatility Adjustment
Repricing rails based on the long-term logarithmic trend highlight the rails on which Bitcoin's price will reprice up or down.
Adjusts to the diminishing volatility of the asset over time as it matures.
4.4. Seasonal Dynamics
Integrates Bitcoin's inherent seasonal trends to provide additional context for market conditions aligning with broader market analysis.
Understanding Bitcoin’s seasons:
Spring Awakening - The initial recovery phase where the market begins to rebound from a bear market showing early signs of improvement. This is an ideal time for cautious optimism. Investors should consider gradually increasing their positions in Bitcoin, focusing on accumulation as confidence in market recovery grows.
Blossom Boom - A market bottom has been confirmed by now and market interest continues to pick up ahead of the Bitcoin halving. This typically presents a great opportunity for investors to position themselves advantageously ahead of expected price movements. It’s a good time to review and adjust portfolios to align with anticipated trends.
Midsummer Momentum - This phase follows the Bitcoin halving, characterized by a sideways to upward price trend often supported by heightened interest and media coverage. It represents potentially the last opportunity in the cycle for investors to purchase Bitcoin at lower price levels unlikely to be seen again. Investors should closely monitor the market for value buying opportunities to bolster their long-term investment strategies.
Rocket Rise - A phase where Bitcoin prices are likely to surge dramatically driven by a mix of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) among new investors and widespread media hype. The strategy here is twofold: long-term holders should hold steady to reap maximum gains whereas more speculative investors might look to capitalize on the volatility by taking profits at optimal moments before a potential correction.
Winter Whispers - Following a bull run, the market begins to cool, marked by some investors taking profits and consequently increasing price fluctuations and volatility. During this time, investors should remain vigilant, tightening stop-loss orders to safeguard gains. This phase may be suitable for those looking to liquidate a portion of their long-term investments. However, for an investor to be selling the majority of their Bitcoin holdings is generally not advisable as it could preclude benefiting from potential future appreciations.
Deep Freeze - The market enters a bearish phase with significant price declines and market corrections. It's a period of consolidation and resetting of price levels. The end of this stage could typically be seen as a buying opportunity for the long-term investor. Accumulating Bitcoin during this phase can be advantageous as prices are lower and provide a foundation for significant growth in the next cycle.
4.5. Support and Resistance Zones
Calculates key levels that inform stop-loss placements and trading size decisions enhancing trading strategy around the Bitcoin Destiny Line.
4.6. Market Action Indicators
Suggests potential trading actions for different market phases aiding traders in identifying investment/trading opportunities.
Risk Indicator - Signals when prices are extremely over-extended helping to avoid entries during potential peak valuations.
4.7. Cycle Projections
Extends repricing levels into the future providing a visual forecast of expected price movements and enhancing strategic planning capabilities.
Cycle-High Price Projection Range - Provides a probabilistic range for upcoming cycle peaks based on historical trends and current market analysis.
4.8. Heatmap Only
It is also possible to plot the heatmap only as a background or as a bar in a second indicator.
4.9. Complete Visual View
A complete view of all key elements switched on the model.
5. Settings
Users can select to only show specific elements or all elements of the model.
They can set the sensitivity of some of the model elements and adjust certain view settings.
6. Different Strategies to Utilize the Model
The following strategies are enabled by the Bitcoin Destiny Line model:
6.1. Value-Based Entry Strategy
Investors can optimize their investment strategy by deploying investable cash either as a lump sum or on a dollar-cost averaging basis upon the display of a value indicator (Up-Triangles) which signals the highest probability for value entries.
6.2. Long-Term Position Strategy
As an alternative, investors may prefer to continue deploying investable funds while cooler colors (green or blue) are displayed on the value map, indicating favorable conditions for long-term positions.
6.3. Scaling Out Strategy
Investors may choose to scale out some of their investment upon the display of a risk indicator (circles) reducing exposure to potential downturns.
6.4. Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy
A sound strategy can also be to follow a portfolio rebalancing approach by deploying available investable cash upon the display of a value indicator. Rebalance the portfolio to maintain 25% in cash upon the display of a risk indicator. Adjust this ratio as subsequent risk indicators are triggered, deploying available cash upon future value signals.
6.5. Bear Market Strategy
In a bear market, traders may seek short positions upon the display of the Continued Downward Momentum indicator (Down Triangles) capitalizing on declining market trends.
6.6. Short-Term Trading Strategy
Traders can use hourly or 4-hourly data along with the daily Price Rails and Heatmap Bar for short-term positions. They may incorporate other preferred indicators such as RSI for entry/exit decisions.
7. Recommendations and Disclosures
Investors are recommended to take a prudent approach. It is not recommended for investors to scale out completely or significantly reduce the largest portion of their long-term Bitcoin positions in hopes of buying back at lower prices unless they have a compelling reason to do so. The future market conditions may not replicate past opportunities making this strategy uncertain. However, scaling out a smaller portion such as 25% can offer a high potential for an asymmetric risk-reward ratio. This approach is likely to provide a higher risk-adjusted return compared to traditional dollar-cost averaging or random lump sum adjustments.
The Bitcoin Destiny Line Model leverages 13.5 years of available price data across four complete Bitcoin market cycles.
While each additional cycle enriches the model's robustness and enhances the reliability of its forecasts, it is crucial for users to understand that historical trends are indicative of probable future directions and potential price ranges. Users should be cognizant that past performance is not a definitive predictor of future results and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.
Quarterly Theory ICT 01 [TradingFinder] XAMD + Q1-Q4 Sessions🔵 Introduction
The Quarterly Theory ICT indicator is an advanced analytical system based on the concepts of ICT (Inner Circle Trader) and fractal time. It divides time into quarterly periods and accurately determines entry and exit points for trades by using the True Open as the starting point of each cycle. This system is applicable across various time frames including annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and even 90-minute sessions.
Time is divided into four quarters: in the first quarter (Q1), which is dedicated to the Accumulation phase, the market is in a consolidation state, laying the groundwork for a new trend; in the second quarter (Q2), allocated to the Manipulation phase (also known as Judas Swing), sudden price changes and false moves occur, marking the true starting point of a trend change; the third quarter (Q3) is dedicated to the Distribution phase, during which prices are broadly distributed and price volatility peaks; and the fourth quarter (Q4), corresponding to the Continuation/Reversal phase, either continues or reverses the previous trend.
By leveraging smart algorithms and technical analysis, this system identifies optimal price patterns and trading positions through the precise detection of stop-run and liquidity zones.
With the division of time into Q1 through Q4 and by incorporating key terms such as Quarterly Theory ICT, True Open, Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, Continuation/Reversal, ICT, fractal time, smart algorithms, technical analysis, price patterns, trading positions, stop-run, and liquidity, this system enables traders to identify market trends and make informed trading decisions using real data and precise analysis.
♦ Important Note :
This indicator and the "Quarterly Theory ICT" concept have been developed based on material published in primary sources, notably the articles on Daye( traderdaye ) and Joshuuu . All copyright rights are reserved.
🔵 How to Use
The Quarterly Theory ICT strategy is built on dividing time into four distinct periods across various time frames such as annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and even 90-minute sessions. In this approach, time is segmented into four quarters, during which the phases of Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal appear in a systematic and recurring manner.
The first segment (Q1) functions as the Accumulation phase, where the market consolidates and lays the foundation for future movement; the second segment (Q2) represents the Manipulation phase, during which prices experience sudden initial changes, and with the aid of the True Open concept, the real starting point of the market’s movement is determined; in the third segment (Q3), the Distribution phase takes place, where prices are widely dispersed and price volatility reaches its peak; and finally, the fourth segment (Q4) is recognized as the Continuation/Reversal phase, in which the previous trend either continues or reverses.
This strategy, by harnessing the concepts of fractal time and smart algorithms, enables precise analysis of price patterns across multiple time frames and, through the identification of key points such as stop-run and liquidity zones, assists traders in optimizing their trading positions. Utilizing real market data and dividing time into Q1 through Q4 allows for a comprehensive and multi-level technical analysis in which optimal entry and exit points are identified by comparing prices to the True Open.
Thus, by focusing on keywords like Quarterly Theory ICT, True Open, Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, Continuation/Reversal, ICT, fractal time, smart algorithms, technical analysis, price patterns, trading positions, stop-run, and liquidity, the Quarterly Theory ICT strategy acts as a coherent framework for predicting market trends and developing trading strategies.
🔵b]Settings
Cycle Display Mode: Determines whether the cycle is displayed on the chart or on the indicator panel.
Show Cycle: Enables or disables the display of the ranges corresponding to each quarter within the micro cycles (e.g., Q1/1, Q1/2, Q1/3, Q1/4, etc.).
Show Cycle Label: Toggles the display of textual labels for identifying the micro cycle phases (for example, Q1/1 or Q2/2).
Table Display Mode: Enables or disables the ability to display cycle information in a tabular format.
Show Table: Determines whether the table—which summarizes the phases (Q1 to Q4)—is displayed.
Show More Info: Adds additional details to the table, such as the name of the phase (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, or Continuation/Reversal) or further specifics about each cycle.
🔵 Conclusion
Quarterly Theory ICT provides a fractal and recurring approach to analyzing price behavior by dividing time into four quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4) and defining the True Open at the beginning of the second phase.
The Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal phases repeat in each cycle, allowing traders to identify price patterns with greater precision across annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and even micro-level time frames.
Focusing on the True Open as the primary reference point enables faster recognition of potential trend changes and facilitates optimal management of trading positions. In summary, this strategy, based on ICT principles and fractal time concepts, offers a powerful framework for predicting future market movements, identifying optimal entry and exit points, and managing risk in various trading conditions.
On Chart Reverse RSI cyclic smoothed + DivergenceThis indicator is based on the amazing work of (@whentotrade) Lars von Theinen's RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI). More information on the original indicator and how to use it can be found below.
The On Chart Reverse cRSI is a visual representational spin of the cRSI or (RSI cyclic smoothed, by Lars von Theinen) you all know and love with the addition of two key features, that in conjunction can be used to greatly assist the end-user in their decision making for entry, exit and risk management.
The first feature is the visual reverse engineered calculations of the HighBand, LowBand, as well as the user defined Upper and Lower Levels (70 & 30 by default), compared to the cRSI Level, in relation to the current price level as the point of divergence, which at a glance can then be used to visually see on the chart the closing price level needed in order to cross the cRSI either under or over the afore mentioned levels.
The second feature is the addition of my advanced On Chart divergence script in order to display regular as well as hidden divergences on the cRSI compared to the price level, in order to help the end-user train their eyes to spot them more accurately.
Divergence colors and description:
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Green : Regular Bullish Divergence
White : Hidden Bullish Divergence
Red : Regular Bearish Divergence
Orange : Hidden Bearish Divergence
Optional Settings Include:
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1.) Show/Hide Reverse Levels
2.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Size
3.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Color
4.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Left Margin
5.) Change the Reverse Levels Decimal value
6.) Show/Hide the Reverse Levels Currency
7.) Show/hide the cRSI Divergence lines
8.) Change the cRSI Divergence line offset
9.) Show/hide the cRSI Divergence arrows
10.) Change the Regular Bullish Divergence Color
11.) Change the Hidden Bullish Divergence Color
12.) Change the Regular Bearish Divergence Color
13.) Change the Hidden Bearish Divergence Color
14.) Change the cRSI Divergence lookback (No. of bars to lookback)
RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI)
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The RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI) indicator is developed by Lars von Theinen and is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org Copyright (C) 2017 CC BY, whentotrade / Lars von Thienen. For more details on the cRSI Indicator:
RSI cyclic smoothed v2
The RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI) is an enhancement of the classic RSI , adding
1) additional smoothing according to the market vibration,
2) adaptive upper and lower bands according to the cyclic memory and
3) using the current dominant cycle length as input for the indicator.
It is much more responsive to market moves than the basic RSI . The indicator uses the dominant cycle as input to optimize signal, smoothing, and cyclic memory. To get more in-depth information on the cyclic-smoothed RSI indicator, please read Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm - Part 1: Dynamic Cycles (2017), Chapter 4: "Fine-tuning technical indicators." You need to derive the dominant cycle as input parameter for the cycle length as described in chapter 4.
Please PM me to obtain access.
