Pi Cycle Top IndicatorIndicator Overview
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.
It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.
Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA not the number of days.
For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.
It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.
It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.
How It Can Be Used
Pi Cycle Top is useful to indicate when the market is very overheated. So overheated that the shorter term moving average, which is the 111 day moving average, has reached a x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average. Historically it has proved advantageous to sell Bitcoin at this time in Bitcoin's price cycles.
Created By
Philip Swift
Cerca negli script per "Cycle"
Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter📉 Crypto is changing. Your signals should too.
This script doesn’t try to outguess price — it helps you track capital rotation and flow behavior in alignment with the evolving macro structure of the digital asset market.
Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter is a signal engine built to support and validate the capital rotation models outlined in the Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation theses — available via RWCS_LTD’s published charts
It is not a classic “buy low, sell high” tool. It is a structural filter that uses price/volume statistics to surface accumulation zones, synthetic traps, and macro context shifts — all aligned with the institutionalization of crypto post-2024.
🧠 Purpose & Value
Crypto no longer follows the retail-led, halving-driven pattern of 2017 or 2021.
Instead, institutional infrastructure, regulatory filters, and equity-market Trojan horses define the new path of capital.
This tool helps you visualize that path by interpreting behavior through statistical imbalances and real-time momentum signals.
Use it to:
Track where capital is accumulating or exiting
Identify signals consistent with true cycle rotation (vs. synthetic traps)
Validate your macro view with real-time statistical context
🔍 How It Works
The engine combines four signal layers:
1. Z-Score Logic
- Measures how far price and volume have deviated from their mean
- Detects dips, blowoffs, and exhaustion zones
2. Percentile Logic
- Compares current price and volume to historical rank distribution
- Flags statistically rare conditions (e.g. bottom 10% price, top 90% volume)
3. Combined Context Engine
- Integrates both models to generate one of 36 unique output states
- Each state provides a labeled market context (e.g., 🟢 Confluent Buy, 🔴 Confluent Sell, 🧨 Synthetic Trap )
4. Momentum Spread & Divergence
- Measures whether price is leading volume (trap risk) or volume is leading price (accumulation)
- Outputs intuitive momentum context with emoji-coded alerts
📋 What You See
🧠 Contextual Table UI with key Z-Scores, percentiles, signals, and market commentary
🎯 Emoji-coded signals to quickly grasp high-probability setups or risk zones
🌊 Optional overlays: price/volume divergence, momentum spread
🎨 Visual table customization (size, position) and chart highlights for signal clarity
🔔 Alert System
✅ Single dynamic alert using alert() that only fires when signal context changes
Prevents alert fatigue and allows clean webhook/automation integration
🧭 Use Cases
For macro cycle traders: Track where we are in the Trojan Cycle using statistical context
For thesis explorers: Use the 36-output signal map to match against your rotation thesis
For capital rotation watchers: Identify structural setups consistent with ETF-driven or compliance-filtered flow
For narrative skeptics: Avoid synthetic altseason traps where volume lags or flow dries up
🧪 Suggested Pairing for Thesis Validation
To use this tool as part of a thesis-confirmation framework , pair it with:
BTC.D — Bitcoin Dominance
ETH/BTC — Ethereum strength vs. Bitcoin
TOTALE100/ETH — Altcoin strength relative to ETH
RWCS_LTD’s published charts and macro cycle models
🏁 Final Note
Crypto has matured. So should your signals.
This tool doesn’t try to game the next 2 candles. It helps you understand the current phase in a compliance-filtered, institutionalized rotation model.
It’s not built for hype — it’s built for conviction.
Explore the thesis → Validate the structure → Trade with clarity.
🚨 Disclaimer
This script is not financial advice. It is an analytical tool designed to support market structure research and rotation thesis validation. Use this as part of a broader framework including technical structure, dominance charts, and macro data.
intellect_city - World Cycle - Ath & Atl - Logarithmic - Signal.Indicator Overview
INTELLECT_city - World Cycle - ATH & ATL - Timeframe 1D and 1W - Logarithmic - Signal - The Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Oscillator is an adaptation of the original Pi Cycle Top chart. It compares the 111-Day Moving Average circle and the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average circle of Bitcoin’s Price. These two moving averages were selected as 350 / 111 = 3.153; An approximation of the important mathematical number Pi.
When the 111-Day Moving Average circle reaches the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average circle, it indicates that the market is becoming overheated. That is because the mid time frame momentum reference of the 111-Day Moving Average has caught up with the long timeframe momentum reference of the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average.
Historically this has occurred within 3 days of the very top of each market cycle.
When the 111 Day Moving Average circle falls back beneath the 2 * 350 Day Moving Average circle, it indicates that the market momentum of that cycle is significantly cooling down. The oscillator drops down into the lower green band shown where the 111 Day Moving Average is moving at a 75% discount relative to the 2 * 350 Day Moving Average.
Historically, this has highlighted broad areas of bear market lows.
IMPORTANT: You need to set a LOGARITHMIC graph. (The function is located at the bottom right of the screen)
IMPORTANT: The INTELLECT_city indicator is made for signal purchases of sales, there is also a strategic one from INTELLECT_city
IMPORTANT: The Chart shows all cycles, both buying and selling.
IMPORTANT: Suitable timeframes are 1 daily (recommended) and 1 weekly
-----------------------------
Описание на русском:
-----------------------------
Обзор индикатора
INTELLECT_city - World Cycle - ATH & ATL - Timeframe 1D and 1W - Logarithmic - Signal - Логарифмический - Сигнал - Осциллятор вершины и основания цикла Пи представляет собой адаптацию оригинального графика вершины цикла Пи. Он сравнивает круг 111-дневной скользящей средней и круг 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней цены Биткойна. Эти две скользящие средние были выбраны как 350/111 = 3,153; Приближение важного математического числа Пи.
Когда круг 111-дневной скользящей средней достигает круга 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней, это указывает на то, что рынок перегревается. Это происходит потому, что опорный моментум среднего временного интервала 111-дневной скользящей средней догнал опорный момент импульса длинного таймфрейма 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней.
Исторически это происходило в течение трех дней после вершины каждого рыночного цикла.
Когда круг 111-дневной скользящей средней опускается ниже круга 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней, это указывает на то, что рыночный импульс этого цикла значительно снижается. Осциллятор опускается в нижнюю зеленую полосу, показанную там, где 111-дневная скользящая средняя движется со скидкой 75% относительно 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней.
Исторически это высветило широкие области минимумов медвежьего рынка.
ВАЖНО: Выставлять нужно ЛОГАРИФМИЧЕСКИЙ график. (Находиться функция с правой нижней части экрана)
ВАЖНО: Индикатор INTELLECT_city сделан для сигнальных покупок продаж, есть также и стратегический от INTELLECT_сity
ВАЖНО: На Графике видны все циклы, как на покупку так и на продажу.
ВАЖНО: Подходящие таймфреймы 1 дневной (рекомендовано) и 1 недельный
-----------------------------
Beschreibung - Deutsch
-----------------------------
Indikatorübersicht
INTELLECT_city – Weltzyklus – ATH & ATL – Zeitrahmen 1T und 1W – Logarithmisch – Signal – Der Pi-Zyklus-Top- und Bottom-Oszillator ist eine Anpassung des ursprünglichen Pi-Zyklus-Top-Diagramms. Er vergleicht den 111-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis und den 2 * 350-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis des Bitcoin-Preises. Diese beiden gleitenden Durchschnitte wurden als 350 / 111 = 3,153 ausgewählt; eine Annäherung an die wichtige mathematische Zahl Pi.
Wenn der 111-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis den 2 * 350-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis erreicht, deutet dies darauf hin, dass der Markt überhitzt. Das liegt daran, dass der Momentum-Referenzwert des 111-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnitts im mittleren Zeitrahmen den Momentum-Referenzwert des 2 * 350-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnitts im langen Zeitrahmen eingeholt hat.
Historisch gesehen geschah dies innerhalb von 3 Tagen nach dem Höhepunkt jedes Marktzyklus.
Wenn der Kreis des 111-Tage-Durchschnitts wieder unter den Kreis des 2 x 350-Tage-Durchschnitts fällt, deutet dies darauf hin, dass die Marktdynamik dieses Zyklus deutlich nachlässt. Der Oszillator fällt in das untere grüne Band, in dem der 111-Tage-Durchschnitt mit einem Abschlag von 75 % gegenüber dem 2 x 350-Tage-Durchschnitt verläuft.
Historisch hat dies breite Bereiche mit Tiefstständen in der Baisse hervorgehoben.
WICHTIG: Sie müssen ein logarithmisches Diagramm festlegen. (Die Funktion befindet sich unten rechts auf dem Bildschirm)
WICHTIG: Der INTELLECT_city-Indikator dient zur Signalisierung von Käufen oder Verkäufen, es gibt auch einen strategischen Indikator von INTELLECT_city
WICHTIG: Das Diagramm zeigt alle Zyklen, sowohl Kauf- als auch Verkaufszyklen.
WICHTIG: Geeignete Zeitrahmen sind 1 täglich (empfohlen) und 1 wöchentlich
Pi Cycle bitcoin bottomFull credits go to the owner, but for reasons i cannot diclose.
Introduction
With the adoption of cryptographic assets reaching new heights, it is undeniably important to continuously expand and improve current indicators just like how these assets update with new lines of code over time.
Philip Swift’s Pi-Cycle Top Indicator has effectively signaled market and local tops to within 3 days, with the most recent occurrence being on May 12th 2021.
If it were possible to find the cycle/local top of each cycle, a similar analogy could be used to pinpoint the bottom of Bitcoin’s price.
These Pi-Cycle indicators are merely just two moving averages which, when divided by each other, are equal to the value of π.
π = Long MA / Short MA
350/111 = 3.153; as per the existing Bitcoin Pi-Cycle Top indicator.
Pi-Cycle Bottom for Bitcoin
At first, the existing “Pi moving average” pair (350/111) was realigned to see whether they cross at the bottom of the Bitcoin price.
They did not, only to be a lagging indicator in both 2015 and 2018 cycle bottoms.
A possible pair was discovered when the short MA was set to 150:
π = Long MA / 150
Long MA = π * 150
Long MA = 471 (rounded to the nearest whole number)
This resulted in a Pi MA pair of 471/150.
Using the multiple x0.745 of the 471-day SMA and the 150-day EMA (exponential average to take into account of short term volatility ), the price of Bitcoin bottoms at where they two moving averages cross:
When the 150-day EMA crossed below the 471 SMA *0.475, Bitcoin’s price had bottomed for the market cycle.
Over the last two market cycles, this indicator has been accurate to within 3 days also.
Adaptive Bandpass Filter [Ehlers]This is my latest bandpass filter - used to determine if a security is in a trend or cycle.
Now with an adaptive period setting! I use Ehlers in-phase & quadrature dominant cycle measurement (IQ IFM) method to set the period dynamically.
This method favors longer periods which tend to produce smoother, albeit laggier bandpass oscillator plots. From my quick tests, I tend to have lag between 4 and 8 bars, depending on the Timeframe.
The lower timeframes tend to have more noise and thus produce more interfering frequencies that may cause lag.
>Settings
Source: Select the data source to perform calc's on (close, open, etc...)
Period: Select the period to tune. Periods outside of this value will be attenuated (reduced)
Adaptive: Enable to have the I-Q IFM set the period for you (disables Period setting)
Bandpass Tolerance: Allow periods that are plus/minus the chosen period to pass.
Cycle Tolerance: Sensitivity of cycle mode. Lower values consider trends more frequent, higher values consider cycles more frequent.
Bandpass tolerance example: for instance, if this setting is 0.1 (10%) and Period is set to 20, then waves with a period of 18 - 22 will pass.
>How to read
Red line is the bandpass output, showing a lagged version of the dominant cycle representing the
Black lines are the upper and lower bounds for a cycle
Green Background indicates an uptrend
Red background indicates a downtrend
GME Cycle Predictor# 🚀 GME Cycle Predictor - Advanced Technical Analysis Tool
**Comprehensive GameStop (GME) cycle tracking indicator based on historical patterns and market mechanics.**
## 📊 **What This Indicator Does:**
- Tracks **147-day quarterly cycles** from the January 28, 2021 squeeze
- Monitors the **1704-day major cycle** (the theoretical "big one")
- Identifies **T+35 FTD settlement periods** for forced buying pressure
- Marks **quarterly OPEX** and **swap roll dates**
- Provides **real-time buy/sell recommendations** based on cycle timing
## 🎯 **Key Features:**
### **Visual Cycle Markers:**
- 🔴 **Red Circles**: 147-day quarterly cycles
- 🟡 **Yellow Diamonds**: 1704-day major cycle (CRITICAL)
- 🟢 **Green Squares**: T+35 FTD settlement dates
- 🟠 **Orange Triangles**: Quarterly OPEX periods
- 🟣 **Purple X's**: Swap roll periods
### **Smart Trading Signals:**
- **🚀 MAJOR BUY**: 10+ days before 1704-day cycle
- **📈 BUY ZONE**: 5-10 days before 147-day cycle
- **💚 FTD BUY**: 2-5 days before T+35 settlement
- **📉 SELL ZONE**: Day of cycle completion
- **⏳ WAIT**: No active signals
## 📈 **How to Use:**
### **For Swing Trading:**
1. **BUY** when cheat sheet shows active buy signals
2. **SELL** on cycle completion days
3. **HODL** through the 1704-day major cycle
### **For Long-term Investors:**
- Monitor the **1704-day countdown** (major cycle theory)
- Accumulate during **confluence periods** (multiple cycles aligning)
- Use **147-day cycles** for entry/exit timing
## 🔧 **Technical Foundation:**
- Based on **Fail-to-Deliver (FTD)** settlement mechanics
- **Quarterly swap theory** and institutional obligations
- **Options expiration (OPEX)** pressure points
- **Historical pattern recognition** from 2021 squeeze
## ⚡ **Real-Time Features:**
- **Live countdown timers** to next major cycles
- **Dynamic trading recommendations**
- **Confluence detection** when multiple cycles align
- **Volume confirmation** for signal validation
- **Clean visual design** with minimal chart clutter
## 🎯 **Perfect For:**
- GME traders following cycle theory
- Technical analysts studying market mechanics
- Swing traders using institutional obligation cycles
- Anyone tracking the theoretical "MOASS" timing
## ⚠️ **Important Notes:**
- This indicator is based on **theoretical cycle patterns**
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Always use proper risk management
- The 1704-day cycle is **unproven theory** - trade responsibly
- Best used in conjunction with other technical analysis
## 🚀 **Special Feature:**
The **1704-day major cycle** countdown tracks the theoretical "Mother of All Short Squeezes" (MOASS) timing, calculated from the January 28, 2021 squeeze peak. This is the cycle many GME theorists believe will trigger the ultimate price movement.
---
**Perfect for both beginners and advanced traders who want to incorporate GME cycle theory into their technical analysis toolkit.**
*Disclaimer: This is a theoretical analysis tool based on community research. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.*
Yearly VWAP with Z-Score V2This script extends the traditional Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) by applying it to yearly sessions (with a customizable start month) and combining it with a Z-Score framework to standardize price deviations from VWAP.
Features
Yearly VWAP: Automatically resets at the selected month, making it possible to align VWAP with fiscal or seasonal cycles (e.g., June–May).
Volatility-Weighted Bands: Standard deviation is calculated using volume-weighted price variance, creating adaptive upper and lower bands around VWAP.
Z-Score Calculation: Converts price distance from VWAP into standardized scores, ranging from +2.5 to –2.5. This enables statistical interpretation of whether price is trading at fair value, extended, or oversold relative to VWAP.
Custom Session Control: Input allows users to change the yearly anchor month.
On-Chart Display: VWAP and bands are plotted, with a live Z-Score label shown on the latest bar.
How to Use
Fair Value Reference: VWAP reflects the average price weighted by volume over the yearly session — a natural equilibrium point.
Overbought / Oversold Detection: Extreme Z-Score readings (±2 or beyond) highlight when price is stretched relative to VWAP.
Cycle Analysis: Resetting VWAP by custom months allows studying market behavior over fiscal years, seasons, or custom trading cycles.
Part of a Broader Toolkit: This script is not a standalone trading system. It works best when aggregated with other indicators, confluence factors, or a structured strategy.
Originality
Unlike a standard VWAP, this version:
Uses yearly anchoring with custom start month instead of session/day anchoring.
Adds volume-weighted standard deviation bands for statistical context.
Translates distance into a Z-Score scale for objective overbought/oversold assessment.
Positive Z-Score values indicate zones where price is positioned favorably for accumulation or potential buys, while negative values highlight areas more suitable for distribution or profit-taking — always best used in confluence with other tools rather than as a standalone signal
The Ultimate Buy and Sell Indicator: Unholy Grail Edition"You see, Watson, the market is not random—it simply whispers in a code too complex for the average trader. Lucky for you, I am not average."
They searched for the Holy Grail of trading for decades—promises, false prophets, and overpriced PDFs.
But they were all looking in the wrong place.
This isn’t a relic buried in the desert.
This is the Unholy Grail — a machine-forged fusion of logic, engineering, and tactical overkill .
Built by Sherlock Macgyver , this is not a mystical object. It’s a surveillance system for trend detection, signal validation, and precision entries .
⚠️ Important: This script draws its own candles.
To see it properly, disable regular candles by turning off "Body", "Wick" and "Border" colors.
🔧 What You’re Looking At
This overlay plots confirmed Buy/Sell signals , momentum-based “watch” zones , adaptive candle coloring , SuperTrend bias detection , dual Bollinger Bands , and a moving average ribbon .
It’s not “minimalist” —it’s comprehensive .
📍 Configuring the Tool: Follow the Breadcrumbs
Every setting includes a tooltip — read them . They're not filler. They explain exactly how each feature functions so you can dial this thing in like you're tuning a surveillance rig in a Cold War bunker .
If you skip them, you're walking blind in a minefield .
🕰️ Timeframes: The Signal Sweet Spot
Each asset has a tempo . You need to find the one where signals align with clarity —not chaos .
Start with 4H or 1H —work up or down from there.
Too many fakeouts? → Higher timeframe
Too slow? → Drop to 15m or 5m —but expect more noise and adjust settings accordingly.
The signals scale with time, but you must find the rhythm that best fits your asset—and your trading lifestyle .
♻️ RSI Cycle = Signal Sensitivity
This is the heart of the system . It controls how reactive the RSI engine is.
Adjust based on noise level and how often you can actually monitor your charts.
Short cycle (14–24): More signals, more speed, more noise
Longer cycle (36–64): Smoother entries, better for swing traders
Tip: If your signals feel too jittery, increase the cycle. If they lag too much, reduce it.
📉 SuperTrend: Your Trend Bias Compass
This isn’t your average SuperTrend. It adapts with RSI overlay logic and detects market “silence” via EMA compression— turning white right before the chaos . That said, you still control its aggression.
ATR Length = how many bars to average
ATR Factor = how tight or loose it hugs price
Lower = more sensitive (more trades, more noise)
Higher = confirmation only (fewer, but stronger signals)
Tweak until it feels like a sniper rifle.
No, you won’t get it perfect on the first try.
Yes, it’s worth it.
🛠️ Modular Signals: Why Things Fire (or Don’t)
Buy/Sell entries require conditions to align. The logic is modular, and that’s on purpose.
RSI signals only fire if RSI crosses its smoothed MA outside the dead zone and a “Watch” condition is active.
SuperTrend signals can be enabled to act on crossovers, optionally ignoring the Watch filter .
Watch conditions (colored squares) act as early recon and hint at possible upcoming trades.
Background color changes are “pre-signal warnings” and will repaint . Use them as leading signals, not gospel.
Want more trades? Loosen your filters .
Want sniper entries? Lock them down .
🌈 Candles and MAs: Visual Market Structure
Candles adapt in real-time to MA structure:
Green = bullish (above both fast/slow MAs)
Yellow = indecision (between)
Red = bearish (below both)
Buy/Sell signals override candles with bright orange and fuchsia —because subtlety doesn’t win wars .
You can also enable up to 8 customizable moving averages —great for confluence , trend confirmation , or just looking like a wizard .
🧠 Pro Usage Tips (TL;DR for Smart People):
Use tooltips in the settings menu —every toggle and slider is explained
Test timeframes until signal frequency and reliability match your goals
Adjust RSI cycle to reduce noise or speed up signals based on how frequently you trade
Tweak SuperTrend factor and ATR to fit volatility on your asset
Start with visual confirmation :
• Are watch signals lining up with trend zones?
• Are backgrounds firing before price moves?
• Are candle colors agreeing with signal direction?
📣 Alerts & Integration
Alerts are available for:
Buy/Sell entries (confirmed or advanced background)
Watch signals
Full band agreement (both Bollinger bands bullish or bearish)
Use these with webhook systems , bots , or your own trade journals .
Created by Sherlock Macgyver
Because sometimes the best trade…
is knowing exactly when not to take one.
Daye @joshuuuThis indicator is based on Dayes studies about 90minute cycles and true opens.
Similar to how ICT teaches the true day open at 0.00, Daye came up with his true year, true month, true week and true session opens.
True Year - April 1st
True Month - 2nd Monday
True Week - Monday, 6pm
True Day - 12am (Midnight)
True Session - 1:30am (London), 7:30am (New York), 1:30pm (Afternoon)
Ideally, for a bearish scenario, we would like to see price trade above the opening price to then reverse and trade lower.
Ideally, for a bullish scenario, we would like to see price trade below the opening price to then reverse and trade higher.
The moves into the opposite direction are used my smart money to accumulate their positions and trap traders into wrong positions.
This indicator also shows 90 minutes cycles.
90min Cycle Cheat Sheet:
Q1. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation
Q2. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this)
Q3. (D)istribution - LRLR (Trade this)
Q4. (X) - Continuation/Reversal of previous q.
Or
Q1. (X) - Continuation/Reversal of previous q.
Q2. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation
Q3. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this)
Q4. (D)istribution - LRLR (Trade this)
This shows that if q1 consolidates and q2 takes out one side and reverses we anticipate q3 to have a strong move.
however, if q2 consolidates, we anticipate q3 to take out one side, reverse and then have a strong move in q4.
BTC Parabolic Trend Lines v6 (jerikoo)📈 BTC Parabolic Trend Lines v6 - Power Law Regression Indicator
Description:
Advanced regression analysis tool that fits parabolic curves to Bitcoin's price history, revealing long-term growth patterns and future projections based on mathematical power laws.
This indicator implements three types of regression models optimized for Bitcoin's unique price behavior:
🎯 Key Features:
1. Power Law Regression (Recommended for BTC)
Fits the famous Bitcoin Power Law: Price = Offset + A × time^B
Captures BTC's diminishing growth rate over time
Provides the most accurate long-term fit with R² typically > 0.94
2. Multiple Regression Types
Power Law: Best for long-term BTC analysis
Exponential: For shorter timeframes and aggressive growth phases
Polynomial: Quadratic/cubic curves for alternative modeling
3. Dynamic Channel Bands
Upper band (red): Overvalued zone - potential resistance
Lower band (green): Undervalued zone - potential support
Adjustable deviation multipliers based on historical volatility
4. Starting Price Offset
Accounts for Bitcoin's non-zero starting price (~$5-10)
Provides more realistic lower bounds
Improves fit accuracy for early price data
📊 How to Use:
Settings:
Regression Length: 400 bars recommended for best fit
Starting Price Offset: 5-10 for BTC (it didn't start at $0)
Channel Deviation: 1.5 standard deviations default
Future Projection: Extends regression into future (100 bars default)
Interpretation:
Yellow line: Fair value according to the regression model
Above red band: Potentially overvalued (historical tops often here)
Below green band: Potentially undervalued (historical bottoms often here)
R² Value: Closer to 1 = better fit (>0.9 is excellent)
🔄 Timeframe Adaptability:
Automatically recalculates when switching timeframes
Each timeframe shows its own optimized regression
Works on all timeframes from daily to monthly
📈 Trading Applications:
Long-term Investment: Identify accumulation zones when price is below fair value
Cycle Analysis: Spot potential tops when price exceeds upper band
Risk Management: Use bands as dynamic support/resistance levels
Portfolio Allocation: Increase/decrease position based on valuation zones
⚙️ Technical Details:
Uses logarithmic price transformation for better BTC fitting
Implements least squares regression for coefficient calculation
RMSE-based channel bands adapt to volatility
Smooth polyline rendering for visual clarity
📝 Notes:
Best suited for BTC due to its unique power law characteristics
Longer regression periods (300-500 bars) provide more stable trends
The projection assumes historical patterns continue (not financial advice)
Works best on logarithmic price scale for visualization
🎨 Visual Indicators:
Background coloring: Red (overvalued) / Green (undervalued)
Statistics label: Shows R², equation, and current valuation
Smooth curves: No gaps or jumps at current date
Future projection: Seamlessly extends from current price
⚠️ Important:
This is a statistical analysis tool, not a prediction system. Bitcoin's price can deviate significantly from the regression line during bull/bear cycles. The power law provides a long-term growth framework, not short-term trading signals.
Version: 6.0 Author: Created with Pine Script v6 Best For: BTC long-term analysis, cycle identification, valuation assessment Timeframes: All (Daily to Monthly recommended) Markets: Optimized for Bitcoin, may work on other crypto with adjustments
Trigonometric Sine Cosine WavesTrigonometric Sine Cosine Waves - Advanced Cyclical Analysis
Overview
This innovative indicator applies trigonometric mathematics to market analysis, generating dynamic sine and cosine waves that adapt to price movement and volatility. Unlike traditional oscillators, this tool visualizes market cycles directly on your chart using mathematical wave functions.
How It Works
The indicator calculates phase-based waves using:
• Phase Calculation: 2π × bar_index / cycle_length
• Adaptive Amplitude: EMA-based price + ATR volatility scaling
• Sine Wave: avgPrice + volatility × sin(phase)
• Cosine Wave: avgPrice + volatility × cos(phase)
Key Features
Dynamic Wave Generation
• Sine Wave: Primary cycle indicator with smooth transitions
• Cosine Wave: Leading indicator (90° phase difference from sine)
• Adaptive Amplitude: Automatically adjusts to market volatility using ATR
Turning Point Detection
• Anti-Repaint Signals: Uses confirmed values from previous bars
• Sine Bottom: Potential buy zones when wave transitions from down to up
• Sine Top: Potential sell zones when wave transitions from up to down
Advanced Analytics
• Price Correlation Angle: Shows relationship between price movement and cycle
• Phase Information: Current position in the mathematical cycle
• Real-time Values: Live sine/cosine values and phase degrees
Visual Enhancement
• Background Coloring: Changes based on sine wave position (above/below zero)
• Clean Overlay: Waves plot directly on price chart without cluttering
Parameters
• Cycle Length (5-200): Controls wave frequency - shorter = more sensitive
• Amplitude Multiplier (0.1-5.0): Adjusts wave height relative to volatility
• Display Options : Toggle sine wave, cosine wave, and correlation table
• Show Correlation : Optional table showing mathematical values
Trading Applications
Cycle Analysis
• Identify market rhythm and timing
• Spot potential reversal zones
• Understand price-to-cycle relationships
Entry/Exit Timing
• Buy Signals: Sine wave bottoms (cycle lows)
• Sell Signals: Sine wave tops (cycle highs)
• Confirmation: Use with other indicators for higher probability setups
Market Structure
• Visualize underlying market cycles
• Identify periods of high/low cyclical activity
• Track phase relationships between price and mathematical cycles
Pro Tips
1. Longer cycles (50-100) work better for swing trading
2. Shorter cycles (10-20) suitable for scalping
3. Combine with volume for stronger signal confirmation
4. Monitor correlation angle for trend strength assessment
5. Use background color as quick visual cycle reference
Important Notes
• Signals are anti-repaint using confirmed previous bar values
• Best used in trending or cyclical markets
• Consider market context when interpreting signals
• Mathematical approach - not based on traditional TA concepts
Alerts Included
• Sine Wave Buy Signal: Triggered on wave bottom detection
• Sine Wave Sell Signal: Triggered on wave top detection
Technical Requirements
• Pine Script v6
• Works on all timeframes
• No external dependencies
• Optimized for performance
This is a free, open-source indicator. Feel free to modify and improve according to your trading needs!
Educational Value: Perfect for understanding how mathematical functions can be applied to market analysis and cycle detection.
Edufx AMD~Accumulation, Manipulation, DistributionEdufx AMD Indicator
This indicator visualizes the market cycles using distinct phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Reversal. It is designed to assist traders in identifying potential entry points and understanding price behavior during these phases.
Key Features:
1. Phases and Logic:
-Accumulation Phase: Highlights the price range where market accumulation occurs.
-Manipulation Phase:
- If the price sweeps below the accumulation low, it signals a potential "Buy Zone."
- If the price sweeps above the accumulation high, it signals a potential "Sell Zone."
-Distribution Phase: Highlights where price is expected to expand and establish trends.
-Reversal Phase: Marks areas where the price may either continue or reverse.
2. Weekly and Daily Cycles:
- Toggle the visibility of Weekly Cycles and Daily Cycles independently through the settings.
- These cycles are predefined with precise timings for each phase, based on your selected on UTC-5 timezone.
3. Customizable Appearance:
- Adjust the colors for each phase directly in the settings to suit your preferences.
- The indicator uses semi-transparent boxes to represent the phases, allowing easy visualization without obstructing the chart.
4. Static Boxes:
- Boxes representing the phases are drawn only once for the visible chart range and do not dynamically delete, ensuring important consistent reference points.
Financial Astrology Neptune LongitudeNeptune energy influence the charity, confusion, imagination, waste, crime, intuition, occult, scandal, illusion and dreams. It rules the industries related to chemicals, gas and oil, drugs and alcoholic beverages, scams, non profit organisations, spirituality. The last decade Neptune have been traveling through Piscis sign which caused humanity to have an illusion that economical growth don't have limits, as consequence we saw US indexes growth toward new all time highs. However, Neptune is close to leave Piscis, in 7 more degrees as per July 2021 and new cycle is going to start. It will be interesting to see what happens as Neptune moves into Aries sign.
This longitude indicator show a zodiac signs horizontal line boundaries that identify the start of the sign marked in the corresponding horizontal line label in the Y axis, this simplify the analysis of a planet effect within specific zodiac sign.
Note: The Neptune longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Bull Momentum GaugeBull Momentum Gauge
The Bull Momentum Gauge is a powerful momentum oscillator designed to identify the underlying strength and sustainability of major market trends. Instead of trying to predict tops and bottoms, this indicator helps traders and investors ride long-term bull markets by signaling when momentum is building and when it is starting to fade.
What it Does
At its core, this tool measures how statistically "stretched" or "compressed" an asset's price is relative to its long-term (1-year) trend. It does this by:
Calculating the price's deviation from its 365-day moving average.
Normalizing this deviation into a Z-score to measure its statistical significance.
Comparing the inverted Z-score to its own 200-day moving average to gauge the momentum of the trend itself.
The result is a single, smooth line that oscillates around a zero value.
How to Use It
The signals are simple and based on the indicator's relationship to the zero line:
Green Line (Gauge below 0): This indicates that the price has been compressed relative to its long-term trend and is now showing signs of building upward momentum. A cross into the green zone can be interpreted as a potential entry signal for a new bull run.
Red Line (Gauge above 0): This suggests that the price has become over-extended or "stretched" and the upward momentum is beginning to weaken. A cross into the red zone can be used as a potential exit signal, indicating it may be time to take profits and wait for the next cycle.
This indicator is designed to work across multiple timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) and provides a clear, data-driven framework for navigating major market cycles.
Statistical AMDOverview
The Statistical AMD ("Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution") is a real-time statistical analyzer and visual segmentation tool for price action.
It identifies and tracks the structure of major movements within higher timeframe candles — breaking them into three key phases:
Manipulation (M): Early-stage liquidity sweeps.
Distribution (D): Mid-phase trending moves.
Accumulation (A): Late-stage compression zones.
The tool records and visualizes where highs and lows form relative to the open of a larger candle (e.g., 1-hour) and aggregates statistical behavior across sessions.
This is not a predictive indicator — it is a segmentation and statistical probability builder for real-time and historical analysis.
What It Does
Tracks High/Low Timing:
Identifies when the high and low occur during each higher timeframe candle (like hourly).
Plots Box Structures:
Color-coded boxes for each phase:
Red = Manipulation
Green = Distribution
White = Accumulation
Displays Statistical Table:
Average timing of highs and lows
Current vs historical bar position tracking
Average ranges for each phase
Historical Aggregation:
Aggregates hundreds of candles' data to build probabilistic expectations.
Live Updates:
Boxes dynamically expand as price evolves within each phase.
Key Settings
HTF Reference:
Select the higher timeframe to analyze (Default: 1 Hour).
Manually Input Legs:
Customize leg sizes for manipulation, distribution, and no-trade zones.
Defaults:
Manipulation Leg = 3 bars
Distribution Leg = 6 bars
No Trade Zone = 6 bars
Ideal For
Liquidity and Manipulation Traders:
Those analyzing sweep behaviors, fakeouts, and structural rotations.
Time-based Statistical Analysts:
Users who build mean-reversion or breakout models based on timing patterns.
ICT, Smart Money Concept (SMC) Traders:
Traders who track sweep → displacement → compression cycles.
Scalpers and Intraday Traders:
Anyone needing microstructural framing inside large candles.
Important Notes
Higher timeframe anchoring is critical.
Make sure you align the "HTF Reference" with your intended analysis frame (e.g., if you scalp on 1-min, set HTF to 1H or 4H).
The tool doesn’t predict future moves directly — it helps build a contextual, statistically-backed map of where you are inside the cycle.
Manual input flexibility allows tailoring for different asset volatility.
Final Thought
If you're trading without understanding the internal phases of a candle — you're navigating blind.
Statistical AMD arms you with objective, historical data about how and when price tends to expand, manipulate, and compress — so you can act with probability on your side.
Financial Astrology Crypto ML Daily TrendThis daily trend indicator is based on financial astrology cycles detected with advanced machine learning techniques for the crypto-currencies research portfolio: ADA, BAT, BNB, BTC, DASH, EOS, ETC, ETH, LINK, LTC, XLM, XMR, XRP, ZEC and ZRX. The daily price trend is forecasted through this planets cycles (angular aspects, speed, declination), fast ones are based on Moon, Mercury, Venus and Sun and Mid term cycles are based on Mars, Vesta and Ceres. The combination of all this cycles produce a daily price trend prediction that is encoded into a PineScript array using binary format "0 or 1" that represent sell and buy signals respectively. The indicator provides signals since 2021-01-01 to 2022-12-31, the past months signals purpose is to support backtesting of the indicator combined with other technical indicator entries like MAs, RSI or Stochastic. For future predictions besides 2022 a machine learning models re-train phase will be required.
The resolution of this indicator is 1D, you can tune a parameter where you can determine how many future bars of daily trend are plotted and adjust an hours shift to anticipate future signals into current bar in order to produce a leading indicator effect to anticipate the trend changes with some hours of anticipation. Combined with technical analysis indicators this daily trend is very powerful because can help to produce approximately 60% of profitable signals based on the backtesting results. You can look at our open source Github repositories to validate accuracy using the backtesting strategies we have implemented in Jesse Crypto Trading Framework as proof of concept of the predictive potential of this indicator. Alternatively, we have implemented a PineScript strategy that use this indicator, just consider that we are pending to do signals update to the period July 2021 to December 2022: This strategy have accumulated more than 110 likes and many traders have validated the predictive power of Financial Astrology.
DISCLAIMER: This indicator is experimental and don’t provide financial or investment advice, the main purpose is to demonstrate the predictive power of financial astrology. Any allocation of funds following the documented machine learning model prediction is a high-risk endeavour and it’s the users responsibility to practice healthy risk management according to your situation.
Long-Term Trend & Valuation Model [Backquant]Long-Term Trend & Valuation Model
Invite-only. A universal long-term valuation strategy and trend model built to work across markets, with an emphasis on crypto where cycles and volatility are large. Intended primarily for the 1D timeframe. Inputs should be adjusted per asset to reflect its structure and volatility.
If you would like to checkout the simplified and open source valuation, check out:
What this is
A two-layer framework that answers two different questions.
• The Valuation Engine asks “how extended is price relative to its own long-term regime” and outputs a centered oscillator that moves positive in supportive conditions and negative in deteriorating conditions.
• The Trend Model asks “is the market actually trending in a sustained direction” and converts several independent subsystems into a single composite score.
The combination lets you separate “where we are in the cycle” from “what to do about it” so allocation and timing can be handled with fewer conflicts.
Design philosophy
Crypto and many risk assets move in multi-month expansions and contractions. Short tools flip often and can be misleading near regime boundaries. This model favors slower, high-confidence information, then summarizes it in simple visuals and alerts. It is not trying to catch every swing. It is built to help you participate in the meat of long uptrends, de-risk during deteriorations, and identify stretched conditions that deserve caution or patience.
Valuation Engine, high level
The Valuation Engine blends several slow signals into one measure. Exact transforms, windows, and weights are private, but the categories below describe the intent. Each input is standardized so unlike units can be combined without one dominating.
Momentum quality — favors persistent, orderly advances over erratic spikes. Helps distinguish trend continuation from noise.
Mean-reversion pressure — detects when price is far from a long anchor or when oscillators are pulling back toward equilibrium.
Risk-adjusted return — long-window reward to variability. Encourages time in market when advances are efficient rather than merely fast.
Volume imbalance — summarizes whether activity is expanding with advances or with declines, using a slow envelope to avoid day-to-day churn.
Trend distance — expresses how stretched price is from a structural baseline rather than from a short moving average.
Price normalization — a long z-score of price to keep extremes comparable across cycles and symbols.
How the Valuation Engine is shaped
Standardization — components are put on comparable scales over long windows.
Composite blend — standardized parts are combined into one reading with protective weighting. No single family can override the rest on its own.
Smoothing — optional moving average smoothing to reduce whipsaw around zero or around the bands.
Bounded scaling — the composite is compressed into a stable, interpretable range so the mid zone and extremes are visually consistent. This reduces the effect of outliers without hiding genuine stress.
Volatility-aware re-expansion — after compression, the series is allowed to swing wider in high-volatility regimes so “overbought” and “oversold” remain meaningful when conditions change.
Thresholds — fixed OB/OS levels or dynamic bands that float with recent dispersion. Dynamic bands use k times a rolling standard deviation. Fixed bands are simple and comparable across charts.
How to read the Valuation Oscillator
Above zero suggests a supportive backdrop. Rising and positive often aligns with uptrends that are gaining participation.
Below zero suggests deterioration or risk aversion. Falling and negative often aligns with distribution or with trend exhaustion.
Touches of the upper band show stretch on the optimistic side. Repeated tags without breakdown often occur late in cycles, especially in crypto.
Touches of the lower band show stretch on the pessimistic side. They are common in washouts and early bases.
Visual elements
Valuation Oscillator — colored by sign for instant context.
OB/OS guides — fixed or dynamic bands.
Background and bar colors — optional, tied to the sign of valuation for quick scans.
Summary table — optional, shows the standardized contribution of the major categories and the final composite score with a simple status icon.
Trend Model, composite scoring
The trend side aggregates several independent subsystems. Each subsystem issues a vote: long, short, or neutral. Votes are averaged into a composite score. The exact logic of each subsystem is intentionally abstracted. The families below describe roles, not formulas.
Long-horizon price state — checks where price sits relative to multiple structural baselines and whether those baselines are aligned.
Macro regime checks — favors sustained risk-on behavior and penalizes persistent deterioration in breadth or volatility structure.
Ultimate confirmation — a conservative filter that only votes when directional evidence is persistent.
Minimalist sanity checks — keep the model responsive to obvious extremes and prevent “stuck neutral” states.
Higher timeframe or overlay inputs — optional votes that consider slower contexts or relative strength to stabilize borderline periods.
You define two cutoffs for the composite: above the long threshold the state is Long , below the short threshold the state is Short , in between is Cash/Neutral . The script paints a signal line on price for an at-a-glance view and provides alerts when the composite crosses your thresholds.
How it can be used
Cycle framing in crypto — use deep negative valuation as accumulation context, then look for the composite trend to move through your long threshold. Late in cycles, extended positive valuation with weakening composite votes is a caution cue for de-risking or tighter management.
Regime-based allocation — increase risk or loosen take-profits when the composite is firmly Long and valuation is rising. Decrease risk or rotate to stable holdings when the composite is Short and valuation is falling.
Signal gating — run shorter-term entry systems only in the direction of the composite. This reduces counter-trend trades and improves holding discipline during strong uptrends.
Sizing overlay — scale position sizes by the magnitude of the valuation reading. Smaller sizes near the upper band during aging advances, larger sizes near zero after strong resets.
DCA context — for long-only accumulation, schedule heavier adds when valuation is negative and stabilizing, then lighten or pause adds when valuation is very positive and flattening.
Cross-asset rotation — compare symbols on 1D with the same fixed bands. Favor assets with positive valuation that are also in a Long composite state.
Interpreting common patterns
Early build-out — valuation rises from below zero, but the composite is still neutral. This is often the base-building phase. Patience and staged entries can make sense.
Healthy advance — valuation positive and trending up, composite firmly Long. Pullbacks that keep valuation above zero are usually opportunities rather than trend breaks.
Late-cycle stretch — valuation pinned near the upper band while the composite starts to weaken toward neutral. Consider trimming, tightening risk, or shifting to a “let the market prove it” stance.
Distribution and unwind — valuation negative and falling, composite Short. Rallies are treated as counter-trend until both turn.
Settings that matter
Timeframe
This model is intended for 1D as the primary view. It can be inspected on higher or lower frames, but the design choices assume daily bars for crypto and other risk assets.
Asset-specific tuning
Inputs should be adjusted per asset. Coins with high variability benefit from longer lookbacks and slightly wider dynamic bands. Lower-volatility instruments can use shorter windows and tighter bands.
Valuation side
Lookback lengths — longer values make the oscillator steadier and more cycle-aware. Shorter values increase sensitivity but create more mid-zone noise.
Smoothing — enable to reduce flicker around zero and around the bands. Disable if you want faster warnings of regime change.
Dynamic vs fixed thresholds — dynamic bands float with recent dispersion and keep OB/OS comparable across regimes. Fixed bands are simple and make inter-asset comparison easy.
Scaling and re-expansion — keep this enabled if you want extremes to remain interpretable when volatility rises.
Trend side
Composite thresholds — widen the neutral zone if you want fewer flips. Tighten thresholds if you want earlier signals at the cost of more transitions.
Visibility — use the price-pane signal line and bar coloring to keep the regime in view while you focus on structure.
Alerts
Valuation OB/OS enter and exit — the oscillator entering or leaving stretched zones.
Zero-line crosses — valuation turning positive or negative.
Trend flips — composite crossing your long or short threshold.
Strengths
Separates “valuation context” from “trend state,” which improves decisions about when to add, reduce, or stand aside.
Composite voting reduces reliance on any single indicator family and improves robustness across regimes.
Volatility-aware scaling keeps signals interpretable during quiet and wild markets.
Clear, configurable visuals and alerts that support long-horizon discipline rather than frequent toggling.
Final thoughts
This is a universal long-term valuation strategy and trend model that aims to keep you aligned with the dominant regime while giving transparent context for stretch and risk. For crypto on 1D, it helps map accumulation, expansion, distribution, and unwind phases with a single, consistent language. Tune lookbacks, smoothing, and thresholds to the asset you trade, let the valuation side tell you where you are in the cycle, and let the composite trend side tell you what stance to hold until the market meaningfully changes.
2 Bar Master Pattern Indicator ( MTF Inside Bars ) THE 2 BAR MASTER PATTERN IS A PRICE ACTION INDICATOR
It is based off of the master pattern concepts which explains the market moving through a 3 phase cycle.
Phase 1 - Contraction
Phase 2 - Expansion
Phase 3 - Trending
THESE 3 PHASES ARE HAPPENING ON EVERY TIME FRAME AND ON EVERY ASSET CLASS.
The first phase of the cycle is the contraction phase, this is where price goes
into contraction which is measure by a simultaneous lower high / higher low.
The contraction phase can be measured with many forms of contraction methods, such as 2 bar / 3 bar and multi bar contraction detection.
The 2 bar master pattern detects inside bars, based off 2 bar candle detection, when detected it will color the candle and a value line will project out of the center.
When it identifies an inside bar it will bring a line through the centre of the inside bar which is known as a value line, these are key levels that price can either find support or resistance on these levels, or a level when broken price can breakout and take off.
MTF FUNCTIONALITY
We have coded into the logic a Multi Time Frame function so that you can have it identify any inside bar on any time frame. 2 bar inside bars work best on higher time frames such as the 4hr and above therefore with the multi time frame functionality you can set it to a higher time frame of choice and be on a lower chart timeframe where you will take your entries off of.
SHORT ENTRY EXAMPLE
LONG ENTRY EXAMPLE
In the example above its set to the weekly chart as the time frame to detect the 2 bar master patterns, and the timeframe for entry is the 4hr time frame, this will change depending on your trading style and timeframes you like to trade on.
2 BAR MASTER PATTERNS CAN BE USED FOR REVERSALS AND CONTINUATION TRADING.
CONTINUATION INSIDE BAR TRADING
When you have a inside bar formed on a higher time frame, you mark the high and low of the inside bar, and depending on the direction of the trend - if on a up trend and it breaks the high of the inside bar is an long entry - and if its on a downtrend and the low of the inside bar is broken thats the set up for a short entry.
REVERSAL INSIDE BAR TRADING
When you have an inside bar forming at the bottom or top of a range or key level, this can be a sign of weakness and a potential area where price will reverse in the opposite direction.
2 BAR MASTER PATTERN INSIDE BARS EITHER SHOW STRENGHTH OR WEAKNESS OF A TREND
If combined in combination with the higher time frame trend direction and the master patten concepts principles, you can find amazing entries.
Best place to look for long entries on a confirmed uptrend is when price is under the value lines
Best place to look for short entries on a confirmed downtrend is when price is above the value lines
Once you understand that the market is moving in this 3 phase cycle and become adept and identifying the 1st phase which is the contraction phase, it can open the door to a new way of percieving the market and making sense of the seemingly randomness of how it moves.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
This indicator displays logarithmic regression channels for Bitcoin. A logarithmic regression is a function that increases or decreases rapidly at first, but then steadily slows as time moves. The original version of this indicator/model was created as an open source script by a user called Owain but is not available on TradingView anymore. So I decided to update the code to the latest version of pinescript and fine tune some of the parameters.
How to read and use the logarithmic regression:
There are 3 different regression lines or channels visible:
Green Channel: These lines represent different levels of support derived from the logarithmic regression model.
Purpose: The green channel is used to identify potential support levels where the price might find a bottom or bounce back upwards.
Interpretation:
If the price is approaching or touching the lower green lines, it might indicate a buying opportunity or an area where the price is considered undervalued.
------------------------------------------------
Red Channel: These lines represent different levels of resistance derived from the logarithmic regression model.
Purpose: The red channel is used to identify potential resistance levels where the price might encounter selling pressure or face difficulty moving higher.
Interpretation:
If the price is approaching or touching the upper red lines, it might indicate a selling opportunity or an area where the price is considered overvalued.
-------------------------------------------------
Purple Line This line represents to so-called "fair price" of Bitcoin according to the regression model.
Purpose: The purple line can be used to identify if the current price of Bitcoin is under- or overvalued.
Interpretation: A simple interpretation here would be that over time the price will have the tendency to always return to its "fair price", so starting to DCA more when price is under the line and less when it is over the line could be a suitable investment strategy.
----------------------------------------------------
Practical Application:
You can use this regression channel to build your own, long term, trading strategies. Notice how Bitcoin seems to always act in kind of the same 4 year cycle:
- Price likes to trade around the purple line at the time of the halvings
- After the halvings we see an extended sideways range for up to 300 days
- After the sideways range Bitcoin goes into a bull market frenzy (the area between the green and red channel)
- The price tops out at the upper red channel and then enters a prolonged bear market.
Buying around the purple line or lower line of the green channel and selling once the price reaches the red channel can be a suitable and very profitable strategy.
Bitcoin Market Cap wave model weeklyThis Bitcoin Market Cap wave model indicator is rooted in the foundation of my previously developed tool, the : Bitcoin wave model
To derive the Total Market Cap from the Bitcoin wave price model, I employed a straightforward estimation for the Total Market Supply (TMS). This estimation relies on the formula:
TMS <= (1 - 2^(-h)) for any h.This equation holds true for any value of h, which will be elaborated upon shortly. It is important to note that this inequality becomes the equality at the dates of halvings, diverging only slightly during other periods.
Bitcoin wave model is based on the logarithmic regression model and the sinusoidal waves, induced by the halving events.
This chart presents the outcome of an in-depth analysis of the complete set of Bitcoin price data available from October 2009 to August 2023.
The central concept is that the logarithm of the Bitcoin price closely adheres to the logarithmic regression model. If we plot the logarithm of the price against the logarithm of time, it forms a nearly straight line.
The parameters of this model are provided in the script as follows: log(BTCUSD) = 1.48 + 5.44log(h).
The secondary concept involves employing the inherent time unit of Bitcoin instead of days:
'h' denotes a slightly adjusted time measurement intrinsic to the Bitcoin blockchain. It can be approximated as (days since the genesis block) * 0.0007. Precisely, 'h' is defined as follows: h = 0 at the genesis block, h = 1 at the first halving block, and so forth. In general, h = block height / 210,000.
Adjustments are made to account for variations in block creation time.
The third concept revolves around investigating halving waves triggered by supply shock events resulting from the halvings. These halvings occur at regular intervals in Bitcoin's native time 'h'. All halvings transpire when 'h' is an integer. These events induce waves with intervals denoted as h = 1.
Consequently, we can model these waves using a sin(2pih - a) function. The parameter determining the time shift is assessed as 'a = 0.4', aligning with earlier expectations for halving events and their subsequent outcomes.
The fourth concept introduces the notion that the waves gradually diminish in amplitude over the progression of "time h," diminishing at a rate of 0.7^h.
Lastly, we can create bands around the modeled sinusoidal waves. The upper band is derived by multiplying the sine wave by a factor of 3.1*(1-0.16)^h, while the lower band is obtained by dividing the sine wave by the same factor, 3.1*(1-0.16)^h.
The current bandwidth is 2.5x. That means that the upper band is 2.5 times the lower band. These bands are forming an exceptionally narrow predictive channel for Bitcoin. Consequently, a highly accurate estimation of the peak of the next cycle can be derived.
The prediction indicates that the zenith past the fourth halving, expected around the summer of 2025, could result in Total Bitcoin Market Cap ranging between 4B and 5B USD.
The projections to the future works well only for weekly timeframe.
Enjoy the mathematical insights!
Bitcoin wave modelBitcoin wave model is based on the logarithmic regression model and the sinusoidal waves, induced by the halving events.
This chart presents the outcome of an in-depth analysis of the complete set of Bitcoin price data available from October 2009 to August 2023.
The central concept is that the logarithm of the Bitcoin price closely adheres to the logarithmic regression model. If we plot the logarithm of the price against the logarithm of time, it forms a nearly straight line.
The parameters of this model are provided in the script as follows: log (BTCUSD) = 1.48 + 5.44log(h).
The secondary concept involves employing the inherent time unit of Bitcoin instead of days:
'h' denotes a slightly adjusted time measurement intrinsic to the Bitcoin blockchain. It can be approximated as (days since the genesis block) * 0.0007. Precisely, 'h' is defined as follows: h = 0 at the genesis block, h = 1 at the first halving block, and so forth. In general, h = block height / 210,000.
Adjustments are made to account for variations in block creation time.
The third concept revolves around investigating halving waves triggered by supply shock events resulting from the halvings. These halvings occur at regular intervals in Bitcoin's native time 'h'. All halvings transpire when 'h' is an integer. These events induce waves with intervals denoted as h = 1.
Consequently, we can model these waves using a sin(2pih - a) function. The parameter determining the time shift is assessed as 'a = 0.4', aligning with earlier expectations for halving events and their subsequent outcomes.
The fourth concept introduces the notion that the waves gradually diminish in amplitude over the progression of "time h," diminishing at a rate of 0.7^h.
Lastly, we can create bands around the modeled sinusoidal waves. The upper band is derived by multiplying the sine wave by a factor of 3.1*(1-0.16)^h, while the lower band is obtained by dividing the sine wave by the same factor, 3.1*(1-0.16)^h.
The current bandwidth is 2.5x. That means that the upper band is 2.5 times the lower band. These bands are forming an exceptionally narrow predictive channel for Bitcoin. Consequently, a highly accurate estimation of the peak of the next cycle can be derived.
The prediction indicates that the zenith past the fourth halving, expected around the summer of 2025, could result in prices ranging between 200,000 and 240,000 USD.
Enjoy the mathematical insights!
Financial Astrology Vesta LongitudeVesta is one of the largest objects in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, the orbit duration is 3.63 years and seems to be very relevant celestial object in financial astrology. The experienced financial astrologer "Bill Meridian" indicates that this asteroid rules the security business, and paper securities such as bonds and stocks. We have confirmed through statistical research that adding this asteroid to astrology machine learning models provides an increase in daily trend predictions accuracy for crypto-currencies sector.
Our statistical analysis of Vesta zodiac sign location concluded that when is transiting the signs of Aries, Gemini, Cancer, Leo and Libra the daily trend is 59% or more of the days bullish. When Vesta is located at Capricorn is very bearish with 60% of the daily trend going in downward direction. In the other zodiac signs the daily trend was neutral showing most of the time a sideways pattern.
Is very interesting to note that the exact date July 21, 2021, when Vesta entered in Libra BTCUSD started the last bullish wave that finally broke the congestion zone of the 30K-35K and started a new bullish optimism. Pay attention on what happened in the previous cycle when Vesta was located in Libra and do your conclusions.
Note: Vesta longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology North Node (Rahu) DeclinationThe North Node (Rahu) declination is a long term cycle so don't seem to provide useful pattern for short/mid term trading, however is interesting to note that when the declination was within -6 to +6 degrees the price was congested within narrow price zone. As observed in all planets declinations indicators the boundary of moving from North to South or viceversa is critical to determine trend change but in the case of the Moon Nodes it seems to show that the planets energy becomes in equilibrium which causes that price are more stable.
Note: The North Node (Rahu) declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
