US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), normalized for the United States, closely mirrors the Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" (LEI). It offers unique insights into economic and financial dynamics.
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is an economic tool designed to anticipate economic developments. It is created by aggregating and normalizing a wide range of economic and financial data from various sources.
The normalized data is then aggregated, and a composite indicator is calculated by taking a weighted average of individual indicators.
The CLI is used to provide early insights into the state of the economy and to anticipate future economic trends. It is particularly valuable for predicting economic downturns, including recessions.
The CLI is an essential tool for economists, governments, businesses, and investors seeking to understand economic trends and make informed decisions.
Key Features:
1. Early Warning: Just like its counterpart, the CLI indicator excels at offering early warnings about significant economic events, particularly economic crises. This makes it an indispensable asset for analysts and investors.
2. Recession Indicators: The moving average serves as an early warning system for potential economic recessions. When it crosses the indicator line from the bottom to the top while surpassing a predefined threshold (e.g., 101), it signals a potential crisis.
3. Market Impact: The CLI indicator provides valuable insights into the performance of financial markets, offering cues about indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and more.
Why It Matters:
Understanding the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) indicator, normalized for the United States, is crucial for anticipating economic shifts and preparing for changes in financial markets. By analyzing a diverse array of economic factors, it provides a holistic view of economic well-being. Whether you're an investor or economist, this indicator can be an invaluable resource for staying informed about market trends and major economic developments.
Source:
www.data.oecd.org
Cerca negli script per "Cycle"
New Tradability by hajiIntroduction:
The New Tradability Indicator is a state-of-the-art, meticulously coded tool designed for traders on TradingView. Crafted with precision and an in-depth understanding of market dynamics, this indicator offers a comprehensive insight into market tradability across various time frames. By leveraging the core metrics of Trend Area and Quality, it aims to empower traders with the right information to make informed decisions, mitigate FOMO, and maximize profitability.
Core Features:
Three-tiered Time Frame Analysis:
Macro Time Frame: This captures the overarching market movement by analyzing long-term trends. It gives a bird's-eye view of the market's direction and momentum, ideal for position and swing traders.
Normal Time Frame: This is aligned with the current chart time frame. It offers real-time insights for those who trade more frequently, such as day traders or those who base their decisions on hourly or daily charts.
Micro Time Frame: Tailored for scalpers and short-term traders, this captures the minutiae of market fluctuations by focusing on smaller time frames.
Dual-metric Analysis:
Trend Area: This metric delves deep into the market's current trend strength. Whether bullish or bearish, it provides a quantified representation of the trend's vigor and possible continuation. A higher percentage indicates a more pronounced trend, offering traders clarity on potential breakout or reversal scenarios.
Quality: Designed to combat one of the trader's arch-nemeses, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), this metric evaluates the aptness of entering a trade. A high-quality score signifies a ripe opportunity, suggesting that it's an optimal time to enter the market. Conversely, a low-quality score can act as a warning sign, indicating that the prime entry point might have passed, thus cautioning traders against making hasty decisions.
Tradability Bar: The culmination of the indicator's insights is reflected in the Tradability Bar. This holistic bar synthesizes data from all metrics and time frames to present traders with a singular, easy-to-read percentage. The higher the percentage, the more favorable the market conditions are deemed for trading.
Usage Guidelines:
For optimal results, traders are advised to:
Use the Tradability Bar as an initial reference point. A high percentage suggests promising trading conditions.
Dive deeper by analyzing individual metrics (Trend Area & Quality) and respective time frames to validate or refine their trading strategies.
Always consider external market news, events, and other technical analysis tools in conjunction with this indicator for a more rounded decision-making process.
Conclusion:
The New Tradability Indicator for TradingView stands as a beacon for traders navigating the tumultuous seas of the financial markets. By distilling complex market dynamics into actionable insights, it seeks to be an indispensable ally in a trader's journey towards consistent profitability. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this tool is tailored to provide clarity, confidence, and a competitive edge in the trading arena. Welcome to the future of informed trading.
Old Tradability by Kiersten & HajiIntroduction:
The "Old Tradability" is a meticulously crafted indicator designed exclusively for TradingView users. It brings together the power of various well-respected indicators, offering traders a comprehensive tool to gauge market conditions and make informed decisions. Whether you're a novice trader looking for a reliable indicator or a seasoned professional seeking to add another layer to your analytical toolbox, Old Tradability is tailored to provide actionable insights.
Core Features:
Dual Level Analysis:
Long-Term Trend Analysis: At its core, Old Tradability emphasizes the identification of prevailing long-term market trends. To achieve this, it leverages the capabilities of some of the most recognized indicators in the trading world, such as:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Known for its reliability in spotting trend changes and momentum.
MFI (Money Flow Index): A valuable tool to evaluate the flow of money into and out of an asset, often used to predict overbought or oversold conditions.
Heikin Ashi: A unique form of candlestick charting that filters market noise, helping traders understand the market sentiment and trend direction more clearly.
Short-Term Analysis Using MinMax Normalization: The indicator doesn't stop at just identifying the long-term trend. Recognizing the importance of short-term price movements, Old Tradability applies MinMax Normalization on shorter time frames. This technique adjusts the scale of data, making it easier to spot potential reversals or continuation patterns.
Strategic Trading Recommendations:
The principle is simple yet effective. When the long-term trend is bullish and the short-term analysis places the asset in the bottom 20%, it presents a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, if the long-term trend is bearish and the short-term places the asset in the top 20%, traders might consider it as a selling signal.
Integrated Risk Management Alerts:
One of the standout features of Old Tradability is its built-in risk management system. This feature ensures that traders are not only informed about potential trade setups but also about the inherent risks associated.
The system sends out timely alerts for what it deems as "perfect setups," allowing traders to act swiftly and decisively. This minimizes the chance of missing out on lucrative trades while also providing an extra layer of security by notifying users about unfavorable conditions.
Conclusion:
The Old Tradability Indicator is more than just a tool; it's a comprehensive trading companion. Its dual-level analysis ensures that traders have a holistic view of the market, while its integrated risk management alerts keep them one step ahead. If you're looking for a dependable, detailed, and actionable indicator on TradingView, Old Tradability might just be the perfect addition to your trading strategy. Happy trading!
Astro: Planetary Aspects v2.0I have updated the excellent script originally written by @BarefootJoey with additional functionality as listed below the script's original description:
@BarefootJoey:
In astrology, planetary aspects refer to the angles formed between two or more planets in a horoscope or birth chart. These angles are created by the positions of the planets in the sky and are thought to represent a particular energy or influence that can impact events on Earth.
The most common planetary aspects are the conjunction (when two planets are in the same position in the zodiac), the opposition (when two planets are direct across from each other in the zodiac), the trine (when two planets are 120 degrees apart in the zodiac), and the square (when two planets are 90 degrees apart in the zodiac).
This oscillator plots the current geocentric/heliocentric aspect for up to two planets and features a customizable precision of degree (up to +/- 15 degrees) for each aspect.
Additional functionality added in by @Yevolution:
1. Overlay the indicator plot on top of the main chart, with the indicator's scale placed on the left - I found it easier to spot price reactions at a given planetary aspect vs seeing the plot in a separate frame
2. Add options to plot a vertical bar for every occurrence of chosen aspects
The script source code has remained open and additional comments have been added by me to explain the changes where relevant.
When I get some more spare time I will add a function to enable future planetary aspect events to also be displayed on the chart to make forecasting using this data easier.
Weekly Map By BTweekly map
This indicator draws the Low and High of the weekly candle and divides it into the required percentages
Z ScoreWhat Is Z-Score?
Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. Z-score is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-score is 0, it indicates that the data point's score is identical to the mean score. A Z-score of 1.0 would indicate a value that is one standard deviation from the mean. Z-scores may be positive or negative, with a positive value indicating the score is above the mean and a negative score indicating it is below the mean.
CBOE Volatility Index
VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge. To summarize, VIX is a volatility index derived from S&P 500 options for the 30 days following the measurement date, with the price of each option representing the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of expected market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future might be based
Z Scores of VIX
When the Z-scored VIX indicator exceeds the +2 standard deviation mark, the system forecasts mean reversion and decreasing volatility and the possibility of an upward trend in S&P500.
When the Z-scored VIX indicator falls below -2 standard deviations, the system predicts future increasing volatility and the possibility of a downward trend in S&P500.
[blackcat] L3 SuperJThe SuperJ indicator is a powerful tool that utilizes VWMA (Volume Weighted Moving Average) and ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) to filter and enhance the KDJ indicator, resulting in a smoother J line and the creation of the SuperJ indicator. By incorporating TVMA (Triggered Volume Moving Average), the SuperJ indicator can generate trigger signals that can form bullish and bearish crossovers with the J line, creating an oscillating pattern.
The combination of VWMA and ALMA helps to remove noise from the market and provides clearer trading signals. This is particularly useful when the market is highly volatile or the trend is ambiguous. The oscillations of the J line can help traders identify the true trend and avoid being misled by false signals.
Furthermore, by considering the values and trends of the J line in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, traders can make more accurate assessments of market trends and price movements. For example, when combined with moving averages, the SuperJ indicator can enhance the ability to identify price reversal points.
The SuperJ indicator also offers benefits in assessing overbought and oversold conditions in the market. By observing the values and trends of the J line, traders can more accurately evaluate market sentiment and strength. When the J line is above 80, it may indicate an overly optimistic market with a risk of overbought conditions. Conversely, when the J line is below 20, it may indicate an overly pessimistic market with an opportunity for oversold conditions. These signals can assist traders in determining when to buy or sell.
In summary, the SuperJ indicator, derived from the combination of VWMA, ALMA, and TVMA, provides traders with a valuable tool for identifying overbought and oversold conditions, predicting price reversals, and generating high-quality trading signals. Its application as a "buy low, sell high" strategy element is highly effective in maximizing trading opportunities and optimizing profitability.
Stocks Seasonality GaugeThe Stocks Seasonality Gauge (SSG) Indicator is meticulously engineered to assist traders in discerning the historical and current performance trends of a particular stock, leveraging a blend of historical data analysis and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) computations. Through the lens of seasonality and recent price movements, this indicator provides a rich tableau of insights to anticipate potential future performance based on past behaviors.
Key Features:
Historical Performance Analysis:
The SSG assesses the historical performance of a stock, focusing on monthly returns over a specified number of lookback years. It calculates the average performance of the current month over these years, as well as the average monthly performance for the current year to date.
Recent Price Movement Evaluation:
Delves into the recent price movements by calculating the percentage price change over specific periods (21 days and 7 days), offering a glimpse into the short-term momentum of the stock.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Integration:
An EMA is constructed based on the recent price changes, providing a smoothed outlook on the stock's current month's performance. This EMA can be customized through the input parameter for its length, allowing for adaptation to various trading scenarios.
Visualization:
The indicator plots three crucial lines:
The average performance of the current month over the lookback years.
The average monthly performance for the current year to date.
The EMA of the current month's performance.
A horizontal line at 0% change is also plotted as a reference point to easily gauge positive or negative performances.
User-Defined Inputs:
Traders can define the number of lookback years and the EMA length for the current month's performance, offering a degree of customization to suit individual preferences and trading strategies.
Plotting:
The visualization is designed to provide a clear, color-coded representation of the historical and current performance metrics, aiding in the rapid assimilation of information and decision-making.
The Stocks Seasonality Gauge (SSG) is a sophisticated indicator for traders keen on harnessing the power of historical performance and recent price momentum to make informed trading decisions. Its blend of seasonality analysis and EMA application makes it a robust tool for anticipating potential market behaviors and aligning trading strategies accordingly.
ATR Multiples PlottedInspired by @jeffsuntrading and @Fred6724 's ATR% multiple from 50-MA .
There are no catch-all values, however a high of 6 and a low of -4 generally has been valuable to me. I tend to look at the historical highs and lows of the indicator, and adjust the Value High and Value Low accordingly to get an idea when profit-taking may be sensible.
The essence is the difference between price and the selected moving average, measured in ATRs.
Seasonal Trend by LogReturnSeasonal trend in terms of stocks refers to typical and recurring patterns in stock prices that happen at a specific time of the year. There are many theories and beliefs regarding seasonal trends in the financial markets, and some traders use these patterns to guide their investment decisions.
This indicator calculates the trend by "Daily" logarithmic returns of the past years.
So, you should use this indicator with a "Daily" mainchart.
Note: If you select more years in the past than data is available, the line turns red.
Kaschko's Seasonal TrendThis script calculates the average price moves (using each bar's close minus the previous bar's close) for the trading days, weeks or months (depending on the timeframe it is applied to) of a number of past calendar years (up to 30) to construct a seasonal trend which is then drawn as a seasonal chart (overlay) onto the price chart. Supported are the 1D,1W,1M timeframes.
The seasonal chart is adjusted to the price chart (so that both occupy the same height on the overall chart) and it is also de-trended, which means that the seasonal chart's starting value is the same in each year and the progression during the year is adjusted so that no abrupt gap occurs between years and the highs and lows of consecutive years of the seasonal chart (if projected over more than one year) are also at the same level. Of course, this also means that the absolute value of the seasonal chart has no meaning at all.
You can configure the number of bars the seasonal chart is drawn into the future. This projection shows how price could move in the future if the market shows the same seasonal tendencies like in the past. On the daily chart, the trading week of year (TWOY), trading day of month (TDOM) and trading day of year (TDOY) are shown in the status line.
Caution is advised as seasonality is based on the past. It is not a reliable prediction of the future. But it can still be used as an additional confirmation or contradiction of an otherwise recognized possible impending trend.
I have used a virtually identical indicator for a long time in a commercial software package popular among futures traders, but have not found anything comparable here. Therefore I implemented it myself. I hope you find it useful.
Abz US Real ratesThis indicator shows Fed Funds Rate vs US inflation. It also shows the US 10 year bond yield and provides a color indication that aims to indicate if this is a period where owning TLT is a good idea or not. It is not investment advice and it is only aiming to indicate whether the trend is supportive or not for long dated US bonds in comparison with short dated treasury bills and versus inflation.
Recessions: Recessions are indicated by a grey background.
Yield inversion: Periods where the Fed Funds Rate is above the US 10 year bond yield are shown as a maroon background and frequently are macro indicators of an upcoming recession. Like other macro signals, this can't be relied upon as a timing tool.
This is intended to be used as an indictor on a long term chart. Minimum would be weekly but could be even more valid to focus on a chart with monthly candles.
US Presidential ElectionsThis script can be useful in case of analyzing the impact of US presidential election on the past market.
It has separated settings for showing Inauguration and Election labels.
LIT - TimingIntroduction
This Script displays the Asia Session Range, the London Open Inducement Window, the NY Open Inducement Window, the Previous Week's high and low, the Previous Day's highs and lows, and the Day Open price in the cleanest way possible.
Description
The Indicator is based on UTC -7 timing but displays the Session Boxes automatically correct at your chart so you do not have to adjust any timings based on your Time Zone and don't have to do any calculations based on your UTC. It is already perfect.
You will see on default settings the purple Asia Box and 2 grey boxes, the first one is for the London Open Inducement Window (1 hour) and the second grey box is for the NY Open Inducement Window (also 1 hour)
Asia Range comes with default settings with the Asia Range high, low, and midline, you can remove these 3 lines in the settings "style" and untick the "Lines" box, that way you only will have the boxes displayed.
Special Feature
Most Timing-based Indicators have "bugged" boxes or don't show clean boxes at all and don't adjust at daylight savings times, we made sure that everything automatically gets adjusted so you don't have to! So the timings will always display at the correct time regarding the daylight savings times.
Combining Timing with Liquidity Zones the right way and in a clear, clean, and simple format.
Different than others this script also shows the "true" Asia range as it respects the "day open gap" which affects the Asia range in other scripts and it also covers the full 8 hours of Asia Session.
Additions
You can add in the settings menu the last week's high and low, the previous day's high and low, and also the day's open price by ticking the boxes in the settings menu
All colors of the boxes are fully adjustable and customizable for your personal preferences. Same for the previous weeks and day highs and lows. Just go to "Style" and you can adjust the Line types or colors to your preferred choice.
Recommended Use
The most beautiful display is on the M5 Timeframe as you have a clear overview of all sessions without losing the intraday view. You can also use it on the M1 for more details or the M15 for the bigger picture. The Template can hide on higher time frames starting from the H1 to not flood your chart with boxes.
How to use the Asia Session Range Box
Use the Asia Range Box as your intraday Guide, keep in mind that a Breakout of Asia high or low induces Liquidity and a common price behavior is a reversal after the fake breakout of that range.
How to use the London Open and NY Open Inducement Windows
Both grey boxes highlight the Open of either London Open or NY Open and you should keep an eye out for potential Liquditiy Graps or Mitigations during that times as this is when they introduce major Liquidity for the regarding Session.
How to use the Asia high, low and midline and day open price
After Asia Range got taken out in one direction, often price comes back to those levels to mitigate or bounce off, so you can imagine those zones as support and resistance on some occasions, recommended in combination with Imbalances.
How to use the previous day and week's highs and lows
Once added in the settings, you can display those price levels, you can use them either as Liquidity Targets or as Inducement Levels once they are taken out.
Enjoy!
Personal Trading Hours (timezone Europe/Amsterdam)This Personal Trading Hours indicator is intended to specify the times you can trade and make them visible on the chart. Multiple sessions can be specified per specific day of the week and you can give each day its own color if you want.
This can be used perfectly if you are backtesting your strategy manually. You can indicate exactly when you have time to look at the charts and therefore only perform your backtest at those times. Making mistakes that you open en close trades during your sleeptime or worktime in your backtest are gone.
But this indicator is also suitable for live trading.
Filter out the times when you don't want to trade, for example during lunchtime, during opening hours of the exchanges or when you know that big news events will take place during your tradingweek. All the timesessions you do want to trade you can make visible on you chart.
The timezone that is used for this indicator is the timezone: Europe/Amsterdam and therefor only usable for traders in this timezone.
You can use this indicator for timeframes lower then the Daily timeframe with the normal settings. If you want to use this indicator on the Daily timeframe, all the settings in the upper part of the settingsmenu must be unchecked and only the part at the bottom of the settingsmenu can then be used.
This indicator doesn't work on timeframes higher than the Daily timeframe.
If you do not use all the tradingsessions on each day, you have to make sure that all the boxes are filled. So unused session boxes must have the same timeperiodes as the used boxes, otherwise the whole day will be highlighted on the chart.
Hybrid EMA AlgoLearner⭕️Innovative trading indicator that utilizes a k-NN-inspired algorithmic approach alongside traditional Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for more nuanced analysis. While the algorithm doesn't actually employ machine learning techniques, it mimics the logic of the k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) methodology. The script takes into account the closest 'k' distances between a short-term and long-term EMA to create a weighted short-term EMA. This combination of rule-based logic and EMA technicals offers traders a more sophisticated tool for market analysis.
⭕️Foundational EMAs: The script kicks off by generating a 50-period short-term EMA and a 200-period long-term EMA. These EMAs serve a dual purpose: they provide the basic trend-following capability familiar to most traders, akin to the classic EMA 50 and EMA 200, and set the stage for more intricate calculations to follow.
⭕️k-NN Integration: The indicator distinguishes itself by introducing k-NN (k-Nearest Neighbors) logic into the mix. This machine learning technique scans prior market data to find the closest 'neighbors' or distances between the two EMAs. The 'k' closest distances are then picked for further analysis, thus imbuing the indicator with an added layer of data-driven context.
⭕️Algorithmic Weighting: After the k closest distances are identified, they are utilized to compute a weighted EMA. Each of the k closest short-term EMA values is weighted by its associated distance. These weighted values are summed up and normalized by the sum of all chosen distances. The result is a weighted short-term EMA that packs more nuanced information than a simple EMA would.
ICT Clean Midnight [dR-Algo]
Are you a trader who values clean charts and precise indicators? Are you an avid follower of ICT Concepts? If so, the Midnight Marker is tailored for you. This ultra-simple, highly effective TradingView script draws a nearly transparent blue line at midnight on your chart, keeping your interface as clean as possible while delivering essential information.
Why is "ICT Clean Midnight" so Special?
Focus on Price Action: The minimalist design ensures that you can focus solely on price action, which is a core principle of ICT teachings.
Easy Back Testing: Whether you're trading live or back-testing strategies, the midnight marker helps you quickly identify key time points.
Customizable: Though designed to be subtle, the line's color and opacity can be easily customized to suit your charting needs.
This indicator embodies ICT's principle of maintaining a clutter-free, focus-driven trading environment. Perfect for both novice traders wanting to adopt ICT concepts and seasoned traders looking for minimalistic yet effective tools.
Pro Momentum CalculatorThe Pro Momentum Calculator Indicator is a tool for traders seeking to gauge market momentum and predict future price movements. It achieves this by counting consecutive candle periods above or below a chosen Simple Moving Average (SMA) and then providing a percentage-based probability for the direction of the next candle.
Here's how this principle works:
1. Counting Consecutive Periods: The indicator continuously tracks whether the closing prices of candles are either above or below the chosen SMA.
- When closing prices are above the SMA, it counts consecutive periods as "green" or indicating potential upward momentum.
- When closing prices are below the SMA, it counts consecutive periods as "red" or suggesting potential downward momentum.
2. Assessing Momentum: By monitoring these consecutive periods, the indicator assesses the strength and duration of the current market trend.
This is important information for traders looking to understand the market's behavior.
3. Predicting the Next Candle: Based on the historical data of consecutive green and red periods, the indicator calculates a percentage probability for the direction of the next candle:
- If there have been more consecutive green periods, it suggests a higher likelihood of the next candle being green (indicating a potential upward movement).
- If there have been more consecutive red periods, it suggests a higher likelihood of the next candle being red (indicating a potential downward movement).
The Pro Momentum Calculator indicator's versatility makes it suitable for a wide range of financial markets, including stocks, Forex, indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies...
ICT Kill Zones [dR-Algo]ICT Kill Zones Indicator by dR-Algo
Introducing the dR-Algo's ICT Kill Zones Indicator – a tool meticulously crafted to blend with the elegance of the ICT Concept of Kill Zones. Built for traders who seek clarity and focus, this unique indicator is tailored to highlight the essential time frames while ensuring minimal distraction from the core price action.
Key Features:
Three Kill Zones:
London Kill Zone: Kickstart your trading day with the London Kill Zone, highlighting the critical period between 03:00 to 04:00 (UTC-4). The London session, known for its volatility due to the overlapping of the Asian session, is captured precisely for your benefit.
NY AM Session: As the European markets gear towards close and the US markets come alive, our indicator emphasizes the activity from 10:00 to 11:00 (UTC-4). It’s a window where significant market moves often originate.
NY PM Session: Capture the late-day trading action between 14:00 to 15:00 (UTC-4). As markets prepare to close, this time frame can offer last-minute opportunities.
Subtle Yet Effective Visualization: Unlike many other indicators that bombard traders with an array of colors, our ICT Kill Zones Indicator is intentionally designed to be subtle. It provides just the right amount of visual emphasis without overwhelming the chart. The primary goal is to let traders focus on what truly matters: the price action.
User-Friendly Customization: The indicator's settings can be easily tailored to align with individual trading styles, allowing traders to adjust and tweak as per their preference.
Seamless Integration with Trading View: Smoothly integrates with your TradingView charts ensuring optimal performance and real-time responsiveness.
Why Choose Our ICT Kill Zones Indicator?
The market is flooded with indicators, each promising to be the 'next big thing.' What sets dR-Algo's ICT Kill Zones Indicator apart is its dedication to simplicity and effectiveness. It's not just about adding an indicator to your chart; it's about adding value to your trading experience. By seamlessly merging vital time frames without overshadowing the price action, we ensure traders get the best of both worlds.
Join the trading revolution with dR-Algo and embrace a focused approach to the markets.
MMA mainpanelI stumbled on the MMA in the “Active Investing” course notes by Alan Hull (who invented the Hull Moving Average)
alanhull.com
He writes on page 13:
“Multiple moving averages, MMAs, are a sophisticated tool that can be used in a range of applications. MMAs are a series of lines that track and filter the weekly price movements. They consist of 2 sets of lines that allow Technical Analysts to observe and compare the immediate behavior of price activity with the long term behavior of the price activity. Exponential moving averages are used for this type of analysis. The price bars in the following chart have been switched off to improve readability of the MMA lines.”
“Once we have found a share that has an acceptable 'Rate of return' we must make a qualitative judgment of the trend. We are looking for a strong and consistent trend that is not likely to reverse shortly after we enter the market. The following points are critical;
- The long term group must be spreading apart or running parallel with each other.
- The long term group must be pointing upwards.
- The straighter the long term group of lines are; the less volatile the trend is.
- The short term group can pullback (ie. compress together) but if they cross into the long term group then the trend is weakening and may be about to break.
This type of qualitative analysis is only used when entering the market and the idea is to avoid volatility. We want to 'Buy and Hold' and not get bounced in and out of the market. Judging the quality of trends is the most subjective function we will have to perform.”
Because I tend to close positions too soon, I tried MMA. I found that it can help me to stay in position as long as the trend is going on. TradingView offers several scripts for MMA, this version differs from the others because I added color zones and linecolor changes to mark the trend according to Alan’s norms:
An uptrend is marked with a blue zone when the short term group is above the long term group and the long term group is sorted correctly and ema50 points up. The zone is purple when vice versa in downtrend. When there is no trend no zone is colored, but the lines are made gray.
Because of Alan’s idea to show MMA without price bars, I created both an overlay version for the main panel and a version for a sub panel.
US Recession IndicatorThe US Recession Indicator is designed to identify recessions as they happen, using two reputable indicators that have accurately foreseen all past recessions since 1969. Unlike the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which determines recession dates after the fact, this indicator seeks to spot recessions in real-time. When both of these distinct metrics meet certain criteria, the chart's background becomes shaded, signifying a strong likelihood that the economy is in a recession. Furthermore, a built-in alert system keeps users updated without constant monitoring.
The first metric is the Smoothed Recession Probabilities developed by Marcelle Chauvet. It is based on a dynamic-factor markov-switching model that assesses four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments and real manufacturing and trade sales. It offers a mathematical analysis of how recessions deviate from expansions. In essence, this index mirrors the probability of the prevailing true economic situation being a recession, grounded on the current GDP data.
The second metric is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator developed by Claudia Sahm. It operates on the principle that changes in the unemployment rate can be used to identify the onset of a recession. According to this rule, if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point from the preceding year, it flags a potential recession.
For this combined indicator, the thresholds are intentionally set lower than when each metric is used individually. Both metrics must simultaneously suggest a potential recession in order to send a signal. This stems from the realisation that neither metric is infallible and has, on occasion, sent false signals in the past. By requiring both to align, the likelihood of a false positive is reduced. However, it's crucial to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, leaving the door open for potential false alerts which may not be confirmed by the NBER.
Global Liquidity IndexThe Global Liquidity Index offers a consolidated view of all major central bank balance sheets from around the world. For consistency and ease of comparison, all values are converted to USD using their relevant forex rates and are expressed in trillions. The indicator incorporates specific US accounts such as the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP), both of which are subtracted from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to give a more nuanced view of US liquidity. Users have the flexibility to enable or disable specific central banks and special accounts based on their preference. Only central banks that both don’t engage in currency pegging and have reliable data available from late 2007 onwards are included in this aggregated liquidity model.
Global Liquidity Index = Federal Reserve System (FED) - Treasury General Account (TGA) - Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP) + European Central Bank (ECB) + People's Bank of China (PBC) + Bank of Japan (BOJ) + Bank of England (BOE) + Bank of Canada (BOC) + Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) + Reserve Bank of India (RBI) + Swiss National Bank (SNB) + Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) + Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) + Bank of Korea (BOK) + Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) + Sweden's Central Bank (Riksbank) + Central Bank of Malaysia (BNM).
This tool is beneficial for anyone seeking to get a snapshot of global liquidity to interpret macroeconomic trends. By examining these balance sheets, users can deduce policy trajectories and evaluate the global economic climate. It also offers insights into asset pricing and assists investors in making informed capital allocation decisions. Historically, riskier assets, such as small caps and cryptocurrencies, have typically performed well during periods of rising liquidity. Thus, it may be prudent for investors to avoid additional risk unless there's a consistent upward trend in global liquidity.
Oil Price Prediction (Highly Accurate)It's a little-known fact that gold prices move preceded oil prices by 20 months.
If you don't believe me here is a short video from Tom McClellan discussing this www.cnbc.com
This gives us one of the best and highly accurate indicators of what oil will do in the months to come.
HOW TO USE.
When adding the script to your charts it's important to make a couple of adjustments.
Click the triple dots (...), scroll down to pin to scale, and click pin to new scale.
Rght-click the new scale and click auto (fits data to screen)
Go into the indicator settings and turn off the red line.
What you'll be left with is a price projection on where oil prices will go. This becomes your 30,000-foot view. It is important for traders to know if they're coming into a bullish, bearish or consolidating market and this indicator does that.
Its important to mention this is for Monthly charts.
Happy Trading
