Position Size Calculator v206/17/2025 - Updated to add MGC to list of instruments
Position Size Calculator for Futures Trading
A professional position sizing tool designed specifically for futures traders who want to maintain disciplined risk management. This indicator calculates the optimal number of contracts based on your predefined risk amount and provides instant visual feedback.
Key Features:
• Interactive price selection - simply click on the chart to set entry, stop loss, and take profit levels
• Supports all major futures contracts: ES, NQ, GC, RTY, YM, MNQ, MES with accurate contract specifications
• Customizable risk amount (defaults to $500 but fully adjustable)
• Real-time position size calculations that never exceed your risk tolerance
• Visual risk validation with color-coded header (green = valid risk, red = excessive risk)
• Automatic 2:1 risk/reward ratio calculations
• Compact, non-intrusive table display in top-right corner
• Clean interface with no chart clutter
How to Use:
Select your futures instrument from the dropdown
Set your maximum risk amount (default $500)
Click on the chart to set your Entry Price
Click on the chart to set your Stop Loss Price
Optionally click to set your Take Profit Price
The calculator instantly shows maximum contracts, actual risk, expected profit, and R/R ratio
Risk Management:
The indicator enforces strict risk management by calculating the maximum number of contracts you can trade while staying within your specified risk limit. The header turns green when your trade is within acceptable risk parameters and red when the risk is too high, providing instant visual feedback.
Perfect for day traders, swing traders, and anyone trading futures who wants to maintain consistent position sizing and risk management discipline.
Cerca negli script per "Futures"
Market Clock with Inline HoursThis script displays a powerful, configurable market session clock that shows the open/closed status and trading hours for major global financial markets — including specialized logic for NY Futures (Globex).
🔑 Key Features:
✅ Real-Time Session Status:
Shows whether each selected market is currently OPEN or CLOSED, based on the user’s selected time zone.
✅ NY Futures Weekend Logic:
Built-in logic ensures NY Futures are marked CLOSED:
Friday after 5:00 PM ET
All of Saturday
Sunday until 6:00 PM ET
This reflects the true CME Globex trading schedule.
✅ 12-Hour Format + Timezone Labels:
Session hours are displayed in 12-hour AM/PM format alongside their associated timezone (EST, GMT, JST, etc.) for clarity.
✅ Fully Configurable Markets:
You can choose to display:
NY Market (RTH)
NY Futures (Globex)
London
Tokyo
Frankfurt
And you can easily toggle them on/off in the settings.
✅ Text Size & Position Customization:
Easily control the text size (tiny → huge) and screen position (top/bottom, left/center/right).
✅ Auto Timezone Offset Support:
Select from a list of common time zones (EST, UTC, JST, etc.), or enter your own custom UTC offset for global flexibility.
✅ Compact & Clean Design:
The layout groups each market’s:
Real-time OPEN/CLOSED status
Trading hours
All into a single column, making the layout clean and dashboard-ready.
🧠 Who is this for?
Day traders
Futures traders
Forex traders
Anyone who tracks multiple time zones or global markets
📌 Notes:
Clock updates based on chart timeframe (e.g., every 1m on a 1-minute chart)
Pine Script doesn't support real-time per-second updates, but works well for market status tracking
💬 Feedback Welcome!
This script was designed to be lightweight and user-friendly. Suggestions and improvements are always welcome — feel free to leave a comment or reach out directly.
G&S SMT### Description of the Pine Script
This Pine Script is designed to identify **Smart Money Technique (SMT)** setups between **Gold (GC1!)** and **Silver (SI1!) Futures** on a **15-minute timeframe**. It specifically looks for divergences between the price movements of Gold and Silver over the last 4 candles and compares it with the next candle's price movement. The script provides **Bullish** and **Bearish** signals for SMT during a specified time range of **8:45 AM EST to 10:30 AM EST**.
### Key Features of the Script:
1. **Futures Symbols**:
- The script uses **Gold Futures (GC1!)** and **Silver Futures (SI1!)** on a 15-minute timeframe to monitor their price movements.
2. **Time Range Filtering**:
- The signals are only active between **8:45 AM EST and 10:30 AM EST**, ensuring that the script only signals within the most relevant trading hours for your strategy.
3. **SMT Calculation (Last 4 Candles vs Next Candle)**:
- **Gold and Silver Price Change Calculation**: The script compares the price changes of **Gold** and **Silver** over the **last 4 candles** and then compares them with the price movement of the **next candle**:
- **Bullish SMT**: Occurs when Gold shows an increase in the last 4 candles while Silver shows a decrease, and both Gold and Silver show an increase in the next candle.
- **Bearish SMT**: Occurs when Gold shows a decrease in the last 4 candles while Silver shows an increase, and both Gold and Silver show a decrease in the next candle.
4. **Bullish and Bearish Signals**:
- **Bullish SMT Signal**: The script will plot a **green** arrow below the bar when a Bullish SMT setup is identified.
- **Bearish SMT Signal**: A **red** arrow above the bar is plotted when a Bearish SMT setup is identified.
5. **Gold and Silver Difference Plot**:
- The difference between the prices of **Gold** and **Silver** is plotted as a **blue line**, giving a visual representation of the relationship between the two assets. When the difference line moves significantly, it can indicate a potential divergence or convergence in the prices of Gold and Silver.
### Script Logic Breakdown:
1. **Price Change for Last 4 Candles**:
- The script calculates the price change for Gold and Silver from the 4th-to-last candle to the last candle.
- `gold_change_last4` and `silver_change_last4` calculate these price differences.
2. **Price Change for Next Candle**:
- It then calculates the price change from the last candle to the next candle.
- `gold_change_next` and `silver_change_next` calculate these price differences.
3. **Bullish SMT Condition**:
- If Gold increased while Silver decreased in the last 4 candles, and both Gold and Silver show an increase in the next candle, it indicates a **Bullish SMT**.
4. **Bearish SMT Condition**:
- If Gold decreased while Silver increased in the last 4 candles, and both Gold and Silver show a decrease in the next candle, it indicates a **Bearish SMT**.
5. **Time Filter**:
- Signals are only plotted when the current time is between **8:45 AM EST and 10:30 AM EST** to match your preferred trading hours.
### Visualization:
- **Bullish Signals**: Plotted as **green arrows** below the bars when a Bullish SMT setup is identified.
- **Bearish Signals**: Plotted as **red arrows** above the bars when a Bearish SMT setup is identified.
- **Gold - Silver Difference**: A **blue line** is plotted to show the price difference between Gold and Silver, helping visualize any divergence.
### How It Helps:
- **Divergence Identification**: This script highlights potential divergences between Gold and Silver Futures, which can provide insights into market sentiment and smart money movements.
- **Focus on Relevant Time Frame**: By filtering signals between 8:45 AM EST and 10:30 AM EST, you are focusing on a timeframe that can be more beneficial for trading.
- **Visual Clarity**: The arrows and the price difference line provide clear signals and a visual representation of the relationship between Gold and Silver, helping you make informed trading decisions.
This script is an automated approach to detecting **SMT setups** and helping traders recognize when Gold and Silver might be signaling a bullish or bearish move based on their divergence patterns.
Price and OI ChangePrice and OI Change
Description:
The "Price and OI Change" indicator provides insights into market dynamics by analyzing the price and open interest (OI) changes over a 7-day period. This indicator is designed for use with both spot and futures markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Key Features:
Price and OI Change Calculation: Computes the 7-day change in price and open interest to help identify market trends and shifts.
Market Conditions Visualization: Differentiates market conditions by changing the background color based on:
Leverage-Driven Market: Blue background indicates increasing prices and OI, suggesting a bullish trend driven by leverage.
Spot-Driven Market: Green background shows increasing prices but decreasing OI, indicating a bullish trend driven by spot market activity.
Leverage Sell-Off: Orange background reveals decreasing prices with increasing OI, signaling a potential liquidation phase.
Deleveraging Sell-Off: Red background reflects decreasing prices and OI, indicating a bearish market with reduced leverage.
Top 3 BTC Futures Average OI: Displays the average open interest for the top 3 BTC futures contracts from major exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit). This helps gauge overall market sentiment and liquidity.
Visualization Tools: Includes optional plotting of open interest data and average OI for better visualization of market conditions.
Usage:
Traders and Analysts: Use the background color changes and average OI to make informed decisions about market entry and exit points.
Futures Traders: Track OI changes in major BTC futures to assess market strength and potential liquidity issues.
PVSRA Candles Auto OverrideWhat does this “PVSRA Candles Auto Override” Indicator
do?
This indicator automates PVSRA analysis for crypto traders. It finds the corresponding Binance Perpetual Futures chart for the current instrument, then replaces the current chart's volume profile with the perpetual futures data (if available) to ensure the PVSRA calculation uses the most relevant volume. This not only reduces human error during market scans but also automatically selects the appropriate Binance Perpetual Futures contract, saving time and improving the accuracy of PVSRA calculations.
How can a trader use this indicator?
This helps the trader to identify if there is volume data available in an equivalent Binance Perpetual Futures chart and automatically displays it, making it easier to switch coins whilst viewing the market. Why do we want to use Binance Perpetual Futures Volume? In most markets Binance volume surpasses those of other crypto exchanges so this will give us a better view on the volume spikes in the market.
What is PVSRA and how can I trade using this indicator?
PVSRA candles are a type of candlestick chart formatting. PVSRA stands for Price, Volume, Support and Resistance Analysis.
Here's a breakdown of what PVSRA candles aim to achieve:
Combine multiple factors: They take into account price movement, trading volume, and support and resistance levels to identify potential trading opportunities.
Highlight potential imbalances: By color-coding candles based on PVSRA analysis, they aim to show areas of high volume activity, potentially representing imbalances created by market makers (large institutions that influence price).
Identify areas of revisit: The theory is that these high-volume zones may be revisited by the market in the future, as there's "unrecovered liquidity" in those areas.
Usage of the Indicator:
By default the indicator will automatically use the Equivalent Binance Perpetual Chart for the Data
You can override the symbol manually if you what to view another instrument’s data.
Ultimate P&L IndicatorHello everyone,
Excited to release this P&L Indicator! Read below for more details.
What it does:
This is an indicator that permits you to track your active P&L live on Tradingview. As well, it provides some insight into DCAing your position by giving you live estimates of your revised DCA if you were to add to your position at various targets/price points.
Who is it for:
I developed it because I trade 100% off of Tradingview but my broker does not support Tradingview integration. So I wanted a way to track my position live on the Tradingview platform without having to constantly reference my broker. I also wanted to be able to set position specific alerts right on Tradingview.
How does it work:
It works by the user manually inputting their trade information, including their DCA, position size and the date and time of position entry. The indicator can provide real time and live DCA adjusted estimates if you were to add to your position at the current stock price, or you can manually calculcate your revised DCA at a specific price target.
The indicator also displays your current and past performance on your position for the duration of the position period:
Elements:
Capabilities:
The indicator is compatible with both futures and share trading.
Option trading is not directly available, however, you can get an idea for your option position P&L by following the 1 option contract = 100 share rule.
So if you have 5 option contracts that you bought at a ticker price of, say, 38$, your average cost or DCA would be 38 and your position size would be 500. This will not be 100% accurate, but will be close enough to give you a feel for your active P&L.
If you are trading futures, you will need to select "Futures Trading" and specify the TIck and Index costs. A cheat sheet has been provided in the tool tip for ES, Oil and MNQ. The default is set for ES1! mini futures at 0.25 ticks per 50$.
Important tips:
1. Select the date and time of your position (optional): This is optional but will provide you with the clearest and most accurate review of how your position has performed, including the highest and lowest (drawdown).
2. Select whether it is a share position or a futures position (this is required).
3. Select whether it is a long or short position (this is required).
4. Input your DCA and position size (this is required).
5. Most importantly, select the ticker your position is based in!
I have also prepared a quick start video which is linked below:
As always, please let me know your comments/questions and feedback for the indicator.
Thanks for checking it out and safe trades everyone!
HPI for crypto [ptt]The Herrick Payoff Index is designed to show the amount of money flowing into or out of a futures contract.
This indicator uses open interest (from Binance PERP like this BTCUSDTPERP_OI) from during its calculations, therefore, the pairs being analyzed must contain open interest data on Binance.
The indicator only works with USDT pairs! Like RVNUSDT, BTCUSDT... does not work with USD pairs!
The indicator works in two mode.
Index mode - when the values moving 0-100
In this case, if the value below 10, it shows the money is flowing out of the futures contract and near the local bottom. If the value above 90, it shows the money is flowing into the futures contract and near the local top.
(The two trigger can be modified, the default is low:10 and high:90)
Oscillator mode - when the values moving around the origo (0)
In this case, if the value above 0 (green), it shows the money is flowing into the futures contract, this is bullish
If the value below 0 (red), it shows the money is flowing out of the futures contract, this is bearish
BTC Coinbase PremiumThis script is base on another script by oh 92.
It basically shows you where the price of Bitcoin (in USD) on Coinbase trades at a premium against an average of several futures exchanges.
Coinbase premium shows spot interest on bitcoin which happens either when futures are shorting heavily but spot holds the price up (often bullish especially when price is at a support level).
Negative premium shows that futures are leading price during an uptrend or spot is leading price during a downtrend.
Strong positive premium is often considered bullish.
Strong negative premium is often considered bearish even if price goes up.
The histogramm coinbase premium vs an average of several futures exchanges (Bitmex, Bitfinex, Binance, FTX, Phemex and Bitstamp).
The line diagramm shows coinbase premium vs Bybit.
In contrast to the script by oh92 this script uses different exchages (especially Bybit as a lot of former Bitmex traders changed to Bybit during september and october 2020).
All values are in percent because differences in USD only are not suitable for historic prices. This means if CB-premium is -0.1 then futures trade 0.1% lower than coinbase.
BitMEX KairiBitMEX Kairi
# Abstract
This script shows the divergence between BTC futures price and BTC actuals price of bitFlyer FX and BitMEX in percentage.
Usually, when people bought it or sold it too much on futures , the divergence between actuals and futures are getting expanding.
I believe this is really useful to find when the conversion of the trend happens.
Also supports USDT divergence too. If you wish to enable USDT mode, please check "Show only USDT divergence (Poloniex)" on the settings menu.
Enjoy :)
# Supports:
- BitMEX BTC Futures 3mo (orange)
- BitMEX BTC Futures 6mo (red)
- bitFlyer FX (blue)
- USDTUSD (Poloniex)
# Disclaimer:
This is a free script. Feedbacks are welcome! But I don't have any responsibility when this script has broken or something went wrong.
Al Brooks - Bar CountIndicator Purpose:
This indicator displays bar counts on the chart to help traders identify important time nodes and cycle transitions
Features smart session filtering with automatic futures/stock detection and appropriate trading session counting
Core Features:
Smart asset detection: Auto-detect futures and stocks
Session filter toggle: Choose all-day or session-specific counting
Auto timezone handling: Chicago time for futures, NY time for stocks
Flexible display control: Customizable display frequency and label size
Session Settings:
8:30-15:15 (CT) / Futures mode: Chicago time 8:30-15:15 (CT)
9:30-16:00 (ET) / Stock mode: New York time 9:30-16:00 (ET)
All-day mode: Count from first bar of the day
Timeframe Correspondence:
Multiples of 3: Correspond to 15-minute chart update cycles
Multiples of 12: Correspond to 1-hour chart update cycles
18: Key nodes, important time turning points
MenthorQ Levels ConversionLevels Conversion helps traders accurately overlay price levels from spot/index ETFs and indices (like SPX, SPY, QQQ, NDX) onto futures charts (like ES, NQ, etc.).
Because futures and spot/index prices don’t trade at the same price, your levels will be misaligned if you plot them directly. Futures typically trade at a spread or ratio versus their related index/ETF. This indicator solves that by calculating the conversion ratio automatically, so your levels stay aligned on the futures chart.
How it works
This script calculates the ratio between Asset A and Asset B and applies it to convert levels from one instrument to the other (for example, SPX → ES, QQQ → NQ).
Ratio options (3 modes)
You can choose one of three ratio sources:
✅ T1 Ratio (Morning Snapshot)
Select a specific time to “lock” the ratio.
Default: 10:00 AM ET (morning session snapshot)
✅ T2 Ratio (Afternoon Snapshot)
Select a second time to “lock” the ratio.
Default: 3:30 PM ET (afternoon snapshot)
✅ Last Price Ratio (Live)
Uses the last traded price of both assets to compute the ratio.
Note: To refresh the “Last Price” baseline, simply remove and re-add the indicator.
Learn more about Levels Conversions: menthorq.com
Common levels conversions
Some popular use-cases include:
- SPX Gamma Levels → ES
- SPY Gamma Levels → ES
- QQQ Gamma Levels → NQ
- NDX Gamma Levels → NQ
- SPX Intraday Gamma Levels → ES
- QQQ Intraday Gamma Levels → NQ
- SPX Swing Trading Levels → ES
- QQQ Swing Trading Levels → NQ
- GLD Levels → GC
- DIA Levels → YM
- USO Levels → CL
- NVDA / MAG7 Levels → QQQ
Crypto Leverage Index(OI Norm. + FR)Crypto Leverage Index (OI Z-Score + Funding Rate Signals)
(A tool for detecting speculative extremes and leverage load in crypto derivatives markets.)
Hello, fellow traders around the globe!
In today's crypto futures market, often perceived as a 'playground for large players' (whales/smart money), catching extreme leverage behavior is crucial for survival. I wanted to come up with an indicator to quickly identify such market extremes by focusing on the two most potent indicators of leveraged action: Open Interest (OI) and Funding Rate (FR). The goal is to ride on the shoulders of the market movers by anticipating their next liquidity-driven actions. hope this helps.
❗ IMPORTANT NOTE: This indicator works exclusively on Perpetual Futures or Swap Charts that provide Open Interest (OI) data.
⚪ Overview
This indicator provides a standardized view of speculative activity by calculating the Open Interest (OI) Z-Score . This score reveals when the current level of open leverage is abnormally high (premium) or low (discount) relative to its historical mean and volatility. The index is also augmented with Extreme Funding Rate Signals , which plot simple White Dots on the chart when derivative positioning (long or short bias) reaches an unsustainable, overheated level. The combination of OI volume and positioning bias offers a good method to identify potential market reversal zones driven by leverage liquidation risks (short/long squeezes).
⚪ Score Components
Open Interest Z-Score (Leverage Load)
The primary component standardizes the Open Interest value over a defined lookback `Period` (default 50). This calculation reveals the statistical deviation of current leverage from the norm.
OI Z-Score = (OI - Mean(OI)) / StDev(OI)
Funding Rate (Positioning Bias)
Calculates the approximate funding rate using a TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) of the Perpetual Futures Premium, combined with the standard 0.01% Interest Rate.
⚪ Extreme Condition Detection
OI Z-Score Extremes
* Premium Zone (Red Fill) : OI Z-Score is above the user-defined `Threshold` (default 2.0). Indicates high/overstretched leverage.
* Discount Zone (Green Fill) : OI Z-Score is below the user-defined negative threshold (default -2.0). Indicates low/unwinded leverage.
Funding Rate Extreme Signals (White Dots)
These appear as small White Dots ( · ) plotted at fixed levels within the indicator pane. The position indicates the bias:
* Top Dot (Excessive Longs) : Triggered when Funding Rate is greater than Abnormal Funding Rate Threshold (e.g. 0.03%). Indicates excessive Long positioning/greed and potential for a short-term reversal (Long Squeeze risk). The dot is plotted at the positive `FR Signal Plot Level`.
* Bottom Dot (Excessive Shorts) : Triggered when Funding Rate is lower than -Abnormal Funding Rate Threshold(e.g. -0.03%). Indicates excessive Short positioning/fear and potential for a short-term reversal (Short Squeeze risk). The dot is plotted at the negative `FR Signal Plot Level`.
⚪ Leverage Case Scenarios (Price, OI Dynamics & Context)
The OI Z-Score reflects the premium/discount state of *leverage* (Open Interest) , not the price. The price may not be in a premium or discount area simply because the OI is. OI only indicates the volume of outstanding futures positions. You must observe price action and candlestick patterns alongside the OI movements to determine the true contextual hint. Understanding the relationship between price and Open Interest (OI) change is key to interpreting market movements. The cases listed below represent the most common and thinkable patterns, but do not exhaust all possible market behaviors.
1. Long Build-Up (Price ▲, OI ▲): New long positions enter, confirming the rising trend.
2. Short Build-Up (Price ▼, OI ▲): New short positions enter, confirming the falling trend. Due to the inherently long-biased nature of the crypto market, this scenario is less frequently observed than Long Build-Up.
3. Long Covering/liquidation (Price ▼, OI ▼): Existing longs are closed/liquidated. This activity usually results from Panic Selling or forced long liquidation.
4. Short Covering (Price ▲, OI ▼): Existing shorts are forced to close (Short Squeeze).
5. Long Trap (Price ▲, OI ▲ or ▼): Price rises, but OI suggests new positioning that might be trapping longs. Bearish candle pattern can be often shown with the sweep.
6. Short Trap (Price ▼, OI ▲ or ▼): Warning Sign - Price falls, but OI suggests new positioning that might be trapping shorts.
⚪ Key Input Parameters
OI Z-Score
* Period (Default: 50)
Determines how many recent bars are used to calculate the rolling mean and volatility (standard deviation) of the Open Interest data.
* Z-Score Threshold (Default: 2.0)
The critical level that the OI Z-Score must cross to be considered 'extreme' (overstretched leverage).
Funding Rate
* Abnormal FR Threshold (Default: 0.03)
The absolute percentage value (e.g., 0.03%) that the Funding Rate must exceed or fall below to trigger an extreme signal dot.
* FR Signal Plot Level (Default: 4.0)
Sets the fixed vertical position (Y-level) on the Z-Score chart where the Funding Rate signal dots will appear. (e.g., 4.0 plots the dot at the Z-Score +-4.0 level).
Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, based on your financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance. The author assumes no liability for losses arising from the use of this indicator.
Luxy VWAP Magic - MTF Projection EngineThis indicator transforms the classic VWAP into a comprehensive trading system. Instead of switching between multiple indicators, you get everything in one place: multi-timeframe analysis, statistical bands, momentum detection, volume profiling, session tracking, and divergence signals.
What Makes This Different
Traditional VWAP indicators show a single line. This tool treats VWAP as a foundation for complete market analysis. The indicator automatically detects your asset type (stocks, crypto, forex, futures) and adjusts its behavior accordingly. Crypto traders get 24/7 session tracking. Stock traders get proper market hours handling. Everyone gets institutional-grade analytics.
Anchor Period Options
The anchor period determines when VWAP resets and recalculates. You have three categories of options:
Time-Based Anchors:
Session - Resets at market open. Best for intraday stock trading where you want fresh VWAP each day.
Day - Resets at midnight UTC. Standard option for most traders.
Week / Month / Quarter / Year - Longer reset periods for swing traders and position traders who want broader context.
Rolling Window Anchors:
Rolling 5D - A sliding 5-day window that never resets. Solves the Monday problem where weekly VWAP equals daily VWAP on first day of week.
Rolling 21D - Approximately one month of trading data in continuous calculation. Excellent for crypto and forex markets that trade 24/7 without clear session breaks.
Event-Based Anchors:
Dividends - Resets on ex-dividend dates. Track institutional cost basis from dividend events.
Splits - Resets on stock split dates. Useful for analyzing post-split trading behavior.
Earnings - Resets on earnings report dates. See where volume-weighted trading occurred since last quarterly report.
Standard Deviation Bands
Three sets of bands surround the main VWAP line:
Band 1 (Aqua) - Plus and minus one standard deviation. Approximately 68% of price action occurs within this range under normal distribution. Touches suggest minor extension.
Band 2 (Fuchsia) - Plus and minus two standard deviations. Only 5% of trading should occur outside this range statistically. Touches here indicate significant overextension and high probability of mean reversion.
Band 3 (Purple) - Plus and minus three standard deviations. Touches are rare (0.3% probability) and represent extreme conditions. Often marks climax moves or panic selling/buying.
Each band can be toggled independently. Most traders show Band 1 by default and add Band 2 and 3 for specific setups or volatile instruments.
Multi-Timeframe VWAP System
The MTF section plots previous period VWAPs as horizontal support and resistance levels:
Daily VWAP - Previous day's final VWAP value. Key intraday reference level.
Weekly VWAP - Previous week's final VWAP. Important for swing traders.
Monthly VWAP - Previous month's final VWAP. Institutional benchmark level.
Quarterly VWAP - Previous quarter's final VWAP. Major support/resistance for position traders.
Previous Day VWAP - Yesterday's closing VWAP specifically, separate from current daily calculation.
The Confluence Zone percentage setting determines how close multiple VWAPs must be to trigger a confluence alert. When two or more timeframe VWAPs converge within this threshold, you get a high-probability support/resistance zone.
Session VWAPs for Global Markets
For forex, crypto, and futures traders who operate in 24/7 markets, the indicator tracks three major global sessions:
Asia Session - UTC 21:00 to 08:00. Gold colored line. Typically lower volatility, range-bound action that sets overnight levels.
London Session - UTC 08:00 to 17:00. Orange colored line. Often determines daily direction with high volume European participation.
New York Session - UTC 13:00 to 22:00. Blue colored line. Highest volume session globally. Sharp directional moves common.
Previous session VWAP values display as horizontal lines when each session closes, acting as intraday support and resistance. The table shows which sessions are currently active with checkmarks.
On-Chart Labels and Signals
The indicator plots several types of labels directly on price action when significant events occur:
Volume Spike Labels
Fire when current bar volume exceeds configurable thresholds relative to both the previous bar and the 20-bar average. Default settings require 300% of previous bar AND 200% of average volume. Green labels indicate bullish candles. Red labels indicate bearish candles. These spikes often mark institutional entry points.
Momentum Shift Labels
Appear when VWAP acceleration changes direction. The Slowing label warns when an active trend loses steam, often preceding reversal. The Accelerating label confirms trend continuation or potential bottom during downtrends. Filters available to show only reversal signals in existing trends.
VWAP Squeeze Labels
Detect when standard deviation bands contract relative to ATR (Average True Range). Low volatility compression often precedes explosive breakout moves. When the squeeze fires (releases), a label appears with directional prediction based on VWAP slope.
Divergence Labels
Mark price/volume divergences using CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) analysis:
Bullish divergence: Price makes lower low, but CVD makes higher low. Hidden accumulation despite price weakness.
Bearish divergence: Price makes higher high, but CVD makes lower high. Hidden distribution despite price strength.
Dynamic VWAP Coloring
The main VWAP line changes color based on its slope direction:
Green - VWAP is rising. Institutional buying pressure. Volume-weighted price increasing.
Red - VWAP is falling. Institutional selling pressure. Volume-weighted price decreasing.
Gray - VWAP is flat. Consolidation or balance between buyers and sellers.
This coloring can be disabled for a static blue line if you prefer cleaner visuals. The VWAP label next to the line shows the current trend direction and delta percentage.
Calculated Projection Cone
One of the most powerful features is the Calculated Projection Cone. Unlike traditional extrapolation methods that simply extend a trend line forward, this system analyzes what actually happened in similar market conditions throughout the chart's history.
How It Works:
The system classifies each bar into one of 27 unique market states:
Z-Score Level - LOW (oversold), MID (fair value), or HIGH (overbought) based on configurable thresholds
Trend Direction - DOWN, FLAT, or UP based on VWAP slope
Volume Profile - LOW (below 80%), NORMAL (80-150%), or HIGH (above 150%) relative volume
When you look at the current bar, the indicator:
1. Identifies the current market state (e.g., LOW Z-Score + UP Trend + HIGH Volume)
2. Searches through all historical bars on the chart that had the same state
3. Calculates what happened in those bars X bars later (where X is your projection horizon)
4. Shows you the probability of up/down and the average move size
Visual Elements:
Probability Cone - Colored green (bullish probability above 55%), red (bearish below 45%), or gold (neutral). The cone width represents the historical range of outcomes (roughly the 20th to 80th percentile).
Center Line - Shows the average expected price based on historical outcomes in similar conditions.
Probability Label - Displays direction probability and average move. Example: "67% UP (+0.8%)" means 67% of similar past cases moved up, averaging 0.8% gain.
Fallback System:
When the exact 27-state match has insufficient historical data:
First fallback: Uses Z-Score plus Trend only (9 broader states, ignoring volume)
Second fallback: Uses Z-Score only (3 states)
When fallback is active, confidence automatically adjusts
Settings:
Projection Horizon - How many bars forward to analyze outcomes (5, 10, 15, or 20 bars, default 10)
Lookback Period - Historical data window in days (30-252, default 60)
Minimum Samples - Cases needed before using fallback (5-30, default 10)
Z-Score Threshold - Bucket boundary for LOW/MID/HIGH classification (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 sigma)
Cloud Transparency - Adjust visibility (50-95%)
Colors - Customize bullish, bearish, and neutral cone colors
Confidence Levels:
HIGH - 30 or more similar historical cases found
MEDIUM - 15-29 similar cases
LOW - Fewer than 15 cases (more uncertainty)
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
The Calculated Projection is based on past patterns only. It is NOT a price prediction or financial advice. Similar market states in the past do not guarantee similar outcomes in the future. The probability shown is historical frequency, not a guarantee. Always combine with other analysis and never rely solely on projections for trading decisions.
Alert Conditions
The indicator includes over 20 pre-built alert conditions:
Price vs VWAP:
Price crosses above VWAP
Price crosses below VWAP
Band Touches:
Price touches plus or minus one sigma band
Price touches plus or minus two sigma band (extreme)
Price touches plus or minus three sigma band (very extreme)
Z-Score Extremes:
Z-Score crosses above plus two (overbought extreme)
Z-Score crosses below minus two (oversold extreme)
Momentum and Trend:
Momentum slowing
Momentum accelerating
Trend turns bullish/bearish/neutral
Volume:
Volume spike detected
CVD Direction:
Buyers take control
Sellers take control
High Probability Signals:
Bullish reversal signal (oversold plus accelerating momentum)
Bearish reversal signal (overbought plus slowing momentum)
MTF and Special:
MTF confluence zone entry
VWAP squeeze fired
Bullish/Bearish divergence detected
Any significant signal (catch-all)
All signals use confirmed bar data to prevent false alerts from incomplete candles.
Settings Overview
Settings are organized into logical groups:
VWAP Settings
Anchor Period selection
Show/Hide VWAP line
Dynamic coloring toggle
VWAP label visibility
Bands Visibility
Toggle each of three bands independently
Info Table
Show/Hide table
Table position (9 options)
Text size
Volume spike label settings with adjustable thresholds
Momentum label settings with filters
Signal labels limited to 5 most recent (auto-managed)
Probability engine lookback period
Multi-Timeframe VWAP
Enable/Disable MTF system
Show MTF in table
Show MTF lines on chart
Individual timeframe toggles
Confluence zone threshold
Squeeze detection toggle
Session VWAPs
Enable/Disable session tracking
Apply to all assets option
Show session labels
Divergence Detection
Enable/Disable divergence
Pivot lookback period
Show divergence labels
Calculated Projection
Enable/Disable projection cone
Projection horizon (5, 10, 15, or 20 bars)
Lookback period in days (30-252)
Minimum samples threshold
Z-Score classification threshold (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 sigma)
Cloud transparency adjustment
Bullish, bearish, and neutral colors
The Info Table - Your Trading Dashboard
The right side of your chart displays a compact table with up to twelve metrics.
Row-by-Row Breakdown:
Asset and Period - Shows what the indicator detected (US Stock, Crypto, Forex, etc.) and your selected anchor period. The detection happens automatically based on exchange data, so VWAP resets and calculations match your actual trading instrument.
Delta Percentage - How far current price sits from VWAP, expressed as a percentage. Positive means price trades above fair value. Negative means below. Large delta values (beyond 1-2%) often precede mean reversion moves. Day traders watch this for overextension.
Z-Score - Statistical deviation from VWAP measured in standard deviations. Unlike raw delta, Z-Score accounts for volatility. A 2% move in a volatile biotech stock differs from 2% in a stable utility. Z-Score normalizes this. Values beyond plus or minus two sigma occur only 5% of the time statistically.
Trend Direction - Whether VWAP itself is rising, falling, or flat. Rising VWAP means the volume-weighted average price is increasing, which indicates institutional accumulation. Falling VWAP suggests distribution. This differs from price trend since it weights by volume.
Momentum State - Is the trend accelerating or slowing down? This measures the rate of change in VWAP slope. When an uptrend shows slowing momentum, it often precedes reversal. Accelerating momentum in a downtrend can signal capitulation and potential bottom.
Relative Volume - Current bar volume compared to the 20-bar average, shown as percentage. Values above 150% indicate above-average activity. Spikes above 200-300% often mark institutional involvement. Low volume (below 80%) warns of potential fake moves.
MTF Bias - Four checkmarks or X marks showing whether price sits above or below Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly VWAP. Four checkmarks means strong bullish alignment across all timeframes. Four X marks indicates bearish alignment. Mixed readings suggest consolidation or transition.
Band Probabilities - Historical statistics showing how often price touched each standard deviation band over your lookback period. This helps you understand if mean reversion or trend following works better for your specific instrument.
Session Status - Which global trading sessions are currently active (Asia, London, New York). Shows checkmarks for active sessions. Important for forex and crypto traders who need to know when major liquidity windows open and close.
Divergence State - Whether the indicator detects bullish or bearish divergence between price and cumulative volume delta. Bullish divergence occurs when price makes lower lows but buying pressure (CVD) makes higher lows, suggesting hidden accumulation.
Confidence Score - A weighted composite of all factors displayed as a progress bar and percentage. Combines MTF alignment, Z-Score, trend direction, volume delta, momentum, and relative volume into a single 0-100 score. Higher scores indicate stronger conviction setups.
Calculated Projection - When the Projection Cone is enabled, shows the historical probability of price direction and expected move. For example: "▲ 67% (+0.8%)" means in similar market states historically, price moved up 67% of the time with an average gain of 0.8%. The system analyzes 27 unique market states based on Z-Score, Trend, and Volume conditions.
Recommended Use Cases
Day Trading Stocks:
Use Session anchor with Band 1 visible. Watch for price returning to VWAP after morning move. Volume spikes near VWAP often mark institutional accumulation zones.
Swing Trading:
Use Weekly or Rolling 21D anchor. Enable MTF lines for Daily and Weekly levels. Trade pullbacks to these levels in direction of MTF bias.
Crypto and Forex:
Enable Session VWAPs. Use Rolling anchors to avoid artificial resets. Monitor session transitions for breakout opportunities.
Mean Reversion:
Focus on Z-Score reaching plus or minus two. Add Band 2 visibility. Combine with slowing momentum for highest probability reversals.
Trend Following:
Watch MTF bias alignment. Four checkmarks plus accelerating momentum plus high volume confirms trend continuation setups.
Projection Planning:
Enable the Calculated Projection to see what happened historically in similar market conditions. Use 5-10 bars for intraday setups, 15-20 bars for swing trade planning. Focus on high probability readings (above 60%) with HIGH confidence (30 or more samples). The cone shows the probable range of outcomes based on actual historical data. Combine with other factors like MTF alignment and volume for higher conviction setups.
Important Notes
The indicator does not repaint. MTF values use previous period's confirmed data.
Rolling VWAP works best on 15-minute timeframes and above due to bar lookback requirements.
Session VWAPs apply to global markets by default (forex, crypto, futures). Enable the all-assets option for stocks if desired.
Volume data for forex represents tick volume, not actual traded volume.
All alert conditions fire only on confirmed (closed) bars to prevent false signals.
The Calculated Projection updates each bar as market state changes. This is expected behavior. The projection shows probabilities based on similar past conditions, not a fixed prediction.
Q AND A
Q: Does this indicator repaint?
A: No. The main VWAP calculation uses standard TradingView VWAP methodology. Multi-timeframe values use previous period's confirmed data with appropriate lookahead settings. All alert signals require bar confirmation.
Q: Why does my Rolling VWAP look different on 1-minute versus 15-minute charts?
A: Rolling VWAP calculates across a fixed number of trading days. On very short timeframes, the bar lookback may hit TradingView limits. For best Rolling VWAP accuracy, use 15-minute or higher timeframes.
Q: Can I use this on any instrument?
A: Yes. The indicator automatically detects asset type and adjusts behavior. Stocks use standard market hours. Crypto uses 24/7 calculations. Forex uses tick volume. Everything adapts automatically.
Q: What does the Confidence Score actually measure?
A: The score combines six weighted factors: MTF alignment (25%), Z-Score position (20%), Trend direction (20%), CVD pressure (15%), Momentum state (10%), and Relative volume (10%). Higher scores indicate more factors aligned in one direction.
Q: Why are Session VWAPs not showing on my stock chart?
A: Session VWAPs apply to 24-hour markets by default (forex, crypto, futures). For stocks, enable the Use for All Assets option in Session VWAP settings.
Q: The Divergence labels appear delayed. Is this a bug?
A: Divergence detection requires pivot confirmation, which needs bars on both sides of the pivot point. The label appears at the actual pivot location (several bars back) once confirmed. This is intentional and prevents false signals.
Q: Can I change the band colors?
A: Yes. Each of the three bands has its own color input setting. You can customize Band 1, Band 2, and Band 3 colors to match your preferences. The defaults are Aqua, Fuchsia, and Purple. The main VWAP line color adapts dynamically based on slope direction or can be set to static blue.
Q: How do I set up alerts?
A: Right-click on the chart, select Add Alert, choose this indicator, and select your desired condition from the dropdown. All conditions include descriptive alert messages with relevant data.
Q: What is the Probability Engine lookback period?
A: This setting determines how many trading days the indicator analyzes to calculate band touch rates and mean reversion statistics. Default is 60 days (approximately 3 months). Longer periods provide more stable statistics but may miss recent behavior changes.
Q: Why do I see fewer labels than expected?
A: Signal labels (Volume, Momentum, Squeeze, Divergence) are limited to 5 most recent labels on the chart to keep it clean. When a new label appears, the oldest one is automatically removed. Additionally, momentum labels have several filters: check the slope multiplier setting (higher values require stronger trends) and the Only Reversal Signals option (when enabled, labels only appear for potential reversals, not trend confirmations).
Q: What is the Calculated Projection and how accurate is it?
A: The Calculated Projection analyzes what happened in past market conditions similar to the current state. It classifies each bar by Z-Score level, Trend direction, and Volume profile (27 unique states), then shows the historical probability of up vs down and the average move size. It is NOT a price prediction or guarantee. The probability shown is how often similar conditions led to up/down moves historically, not a future guarantee. Always use it as one input among many.
Q: Why does the Projection probability change?
A: The projection updates on each bar as market state changes. If Z-Score moves from LOW to MID, or trend shifts from UP to FLAT, the system looks up a different historical category. This is expected behavior. The projection shows what happened in similar past conditions to the current bar's state.
Q: The Projection shows LOW confidence. What does that mean?
A: Confidence levels indicate sample size: HIGH means 30 or more historical cases found, MEDIUM means 15-29 cases, LOW means fewer than 15 cases. When sample size is low, the system uses a fallback: first aggregating by Z-Score plus Trend only (ignoring volume), then by Z-Score only. LOW confidence means less statistical reliability, so weight other factors more heavily in your decision.
Q: Why does the cone sometimes show 50/50 probability?
A: A 50/50 reading means that in similar past market states, price moved up roughly half the time and down half the time. This indicates a neutral or balanced condition where historical patterns provide no directional edge. Consider waiting for a higher probability setup or using other analysis methods.
CREDITS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Methodology Foundation:
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) - Standard institutional benchmark calculation, widely used since the 1980s for algorithmic execution and fair value assessment
Standard Deviation Bands - Statistical volatility measurement applying normal distribution principles to price deviation from mean
Z-Score Analysis - Classic statistical normalization technique for comparing values across different volatility regimes
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) - Order flow analysis concept measuring aggressive buying versus selling pressure
Concept Integration:
Mean reversion probability engine - Custom historical statistics tracking for band touch rates
Momentum acceleration detection - Second derivative analysis of VWAP slope changes
VWAP Squeeze - Volatility compression concept adapted from TTM Squeeze methodology applied to VWAP bands versus ATR
Confidence scoring system - Weighted composite scoring combining multiple technical factors
Calculated Projection Cone - Probability-based projection using 27-state market classification (Z-Score, Trend, Volume) with historical outcome analysis and weighted fallback system
All calculations use standard public domain formulas and TradingView built-in functions. No proprietary third-party code was used.
For questions, feedback, or feature requests, please comment below or send a private message.
Happy Trading!
6-9 session & levels6-9 Session & Levels - Customizable Range Analysis Indicator
Description:
This indicator provides comprehensive session-based range analysis designed for intraday traders. It calculates and displays key levels based on a customizable session period (default 6:00-9:00 AM ET).
Core Features:
Session Tracking
Monitors user-defined session times with timezone support
Displays session open, high, and low levels
Highlights session range with optional box visualization
Shows previous day RTH (Regular Trading Hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM) levels
Range Levels
25%, 50%, and 75% range levels within the session
Range deviations at 0.5x, 1.0x, and 2.0x multiples
Fibonacci extension levels (customizable, default 1.33x and 1.66x)
Optional fill zones between Fibonacci levels
Time Zone Highlighting
Marks the 9:40-9:50 AM period as a potential reversal zone
Vertical lines with shading to identify key time windows
Statistical Analysis
Calculates mean and median extension levels based on historical sessions
Displays statistics table showing current range, average range, range difference, and z-score
Customizable sample size (1-100 sessions) for statistical calculations
Option to anchor extensions from either session open or high/low points
Input Settings Explained:
Session Settings
Levels Session Time: Define your session window in HHMM-HHMM format (default: 0600-0900)
Time Zone: Choose from UTC, America/New_York, America/Chicago, America/Los_Angeles, Europe/London, or Asia/Tokyo
Anchor Settings
Show Session Anchor: Toggle the session anchor line (marks session open price at 6:00 AM)
Anchor Style/Color/Width: Customize appearance (Solid/Dashed/Dotted, color, 1-4 width)
Show Anchor Label: Display price label for the anchor
Session Open Line: Similar options for the session open reference line
Range Box Settings
Show Range Box: Display a shaded rectangle highlighting the session high-to-low range
Range Box Color: Set the box background color and transparency
Range Levels (25%/50%/75%)
Show Range Levels: Toggle all three intermediate levels on/off
Individual Level Styling: Each level (25%, 50%, 75%) has its own color, style, and width settings
Show Range Level Labels: Display price labels for each level
Range Deviations
Show Range Deviations: Toggle deviation levels on/off
0.5x/1.0x/2.0x Settings: Each deviation multiplier can be customized with its own color, line style (Solid/Dashed/Dotted), and width
Show Range Deviation Labels: Display labels showing the deviation price levels
Previous Day RTH Levels
Show Previous RTH Levels: Display yesterday's regular trading hours high and low
RTH High/Low Styling: Separate color, style, and width settings for each level
Show Previous RTH Labels: Toggle price labels for RTH levels
Time Zones
Show 9:40-9:50 AM Zone: Highlight this specific time period with vertical lines and shading
Zone Color: Set the background fill color for the time zone
Zone Label Color/Text: Customize the label appearance and text
Fibonacci Extension Settings
Show Fibonacci Extensions: Toggle Fib levels on/off
Fib Extension Color/Style/Width: Customize line appearance
Show Fib Extension Labels: Display price labels
Fib Ext Level 1/2: Set custom multipliers (default 1.33 and 1.66, range 0-5 in 0.1 increments)
Show Fibonacci Fills: Display shaded zones between Fib levels
Fib Fill Color: Customize the fill color and transparency
Session High/Low Settings
Show Session High/Low Lines: Display the actual session extremes
Style/Color/Width: Customize line appearance
Show Labels: Toggle price labels for high/low levels
Extension Stats Settings
Show Statistical Levels on Chart: Display mean and median extension levels based on historical data
Extension Anchor Point: Choose whether to anchor from "Open" or "High/Low" of the session
Number of Sessions for Statistics: Set sample size (1-100, default 60) for calculating averages
Mean/Median High Extension: Separate styling for each statistical level (color, style, width)
Mean/Median Low Extension: Separate styling for downside statistical levels
Tables
Show Statistics Table: Display a summary table with current range, average range, difference, z-score, and sample size
Table Position: Choose from 9 positions (Bottom/Middle/Top + Center/Left/Right)
Table Text Size: Select from Auto, Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, or Huge
Display Settings
Projection Offset: Number of bars to extend lines forward (default 24)
Label Size: Choose from Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large
Price Decimal Precision: Set decimal places for price labels (0-6)
How It Works:
The indicator tracks the specified session period and calculates the session's open, high, low, and range. At the end of the session (9:00 AM by default), it projects all configured levels forward for the trading day. The statistical features analyze the last N sessions (you choose the number) to calculate typical extension behavior from either the session open or the session high/low points.
The z-score calculation helps identify whether the current session's range is normal, expanded, or contracted compared to recent history, allowing traders to adjust expectations for the rest of the day.
Use Case:
This indicator helps traders identify key support and resistance levels based on early session price action, understand current range context relative to historical averages, and spot potential reversal zones during specific time periods.
Note: This indicator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Morning ORB FVG Trigger✅ Overview
Morning ORB FVG Trigger is a complete intraday trading framework built around:
A Morning Opening Range Breakout (ORB)
The first Fair Value Gap (FVG) after that breakout
Strict risk management and position sizing
Optional HTF trend filter (Daily / Weekly / Monthly)
Optional Daily ATR filter to avoid extreme days
The script is designed for futures / indices / FX on intraday charts up to 15 minutes and for traders who want a clean, mechanical entry framework with clear risk.
🧠 Core idea
Define a morning opening range (e.g. 09:30–09:45).
Wait for a clean breakout above/below that range.
After the breakout, wait for the first FVG in breakout direction,
confirmed by the next candle (no immediate full reclaim).
Use a chosen stop logic + R:R factor to build risk/reward boxes.
Calculate position size based on your account risk.
(Optional) Only take trades:
In the direction of the HTF EMA trend (D/W/M).
On days where the morning range is within a band of the Daily ATR.
You can also disable all signals/boxes and use the script just as a visual ORB tool.
⏰ 1. ORB / Morning Range
Inputs (Main section)
Morning Range Session
Time window of the opening range in exchange time
Example: 09:30–09:45 for a 15-minute ORB.
You can type custom ranges (e.g. 09:30–09:35 for a 5-minute ORB).
Risk/Reward (TP factor)
Multiplier for the take-profit distance relative to the stop.
2.0 = TP is 2× the stop distance
1.5 = TP is 1.5× the stop distance
Show ORB range
If enabled, draws:
ORB high/low lines
ORB labels (e.g. 15min ORB high / low)
Optional midline
Extend ORB lines to the right (bars)
How many bars to extend the ORB high/low horizontally beyond the ORB itself.
Trade box width (bars)
Horizontal width (in bars) of:
Red risk box (entry–stop)
Green reward box (entry–TP)
Implementation details
The ORB is always calculated on 1-minute data internally, so it stays precise even on 5m/15m charts.
The script only works on intraday timeframes up to 15 minutes.
📦 2. FVG Block
Group: “FVG”
Threshold %
Minimum size of an FVG in % of price.
0 = every FVG
Higher values = only larger gaps
Auto threshold (from volatility)
If enabled, the minimum FVG size is derived from historical volatility
instead of a fixed percentage.
Allow breakout FVG partly inside ORB
Off (default): the FVG must lie fully outside the ORB.
On: the breakout FVG itself may still overlap the ORB a bit,
as long as it is the first one attached to the breakout move.
Enable FVG entry signals, boxes & alerts
On: full system – FVG detection, entry labels, risk/TP boxes, alerts.
Off: no entries, no risk/TP boxes, no alerts.
You only get the ORB and (optionally) the HTF dashboard, so you can trade your own setups.
Entry mode
Entry mode (Mid / Edge / NextOpen)
Mid – Entry at the midpoint of the FVG.
Edge – Long at the upper FVG edge, short at the lower FVG edge.
NextOpen – No limit order in the gap. Entry is placed at the next bar open after FVG confirmation.
Edge offset (ticks)
Additional offset for Edge entries:
Long:
+ticks = a bit above the FVG (more conservative)
-ticks = deeper into the FVG (more aggressive)
Short:
+ticks = a bit below the FVG
-ticks = deeper into the FVG
FVG detection logic
Uses a LuxAlgo-style 3-candle FVG pattern (gap between candle 1 and 3).
Only one FVG is taken: the first valid FVG after the ORB breakout in breakup direction.
The FVG candle is the middle bar; the script:
Detects the FVG on the previous bar.
Waits for the current bar to confirm it:
Bullish: current low must stay above the lower FVG boundary
Bearish: current high must stay below the upper FVG boundary
Only then an entry signal is generated.
🛑 3. Stop Logic
Group: “Stop Logic”
Stop mode (PrevBar / Pivot / FVG Candle)
PrevBar – Stop at the low/high of the candle before the FVG
(tight/aggressive).
FVG Candle – Stop at the low/high of the FVG candle itself
(medium).
Pivot – Stop at the most recent swing high/low
using pivotLeft / pivotRight pivots (more conservative).
Ticks (stop buffer)
Offset (in ticks) from the selected stop level.
> 0 = further away (more room, more risk)
< 0 = closer (tighter stop)
Pivot left / Pivot right
Number of candles left/right to define a swing high/low
when using Pivot stop mode.
Typical intraday values: 2–3.
The script also sanity-checks the stop:
if the calculated stop would be invalid (e.g. above entry in a long), it moves it by a minimal distance (2 ticks) to keep a valid risk.
📈 4. HTF Trend Filter (Daily / Weekly / Monthly)
Group: “HTF Trend Filter”
Enable HTF trend filter
If enabled, trades are only allowed:
Long when at least 2 of D/W/M closes are above their EMA
Short when at least 2 of D/W/M closes are below their EMA
EMA length (D/W/M)
EMA length for all three higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly).
This helps focus entries in the direction of the dominant higher-timeframe trend.
📊 5. ATR Filter (Daily)
Group: “ATR Filter (Daily)”
Use daily ATR filter
If enabled, the height of the ORB (ORB high – ORB low) must be within
a band of the Daily ATR to allow any signals.
Daily ATR length
ATR period on the Daily timeframe.
Min ORB size vs ATR
Lower bound:
Example: 0.3 → ORB must be at least 0.3 × Daily ATR
0.0 = no minimum.
Max ORB size vs ATR
Upper bound:
Example: 1.5 → ORB must be ≤ 1.5 × Daily ATR
0.0 = no maximum.
If the ORB is too small (choppy) or too large (exhausted move), no breakout or FVG signal will be generated on that day.
🧭 6. HTF Dashboard & Signal Labels
Group: “HTF Trend Dashboard”
Show HTF dashboard
Draws a small label at the top of the chart showing:
HTF Trend (EMA X)
D: UP/FLAT/DOWN
W: UP/FLAT/DOWN
M: UP/FLAT/DOWN
Dashboard position
Top Right, Top Center, Top Left – places the dashboard at the top.
Over Risk Info – no top dashboard; instead, the HTF trend info is shown as a label near the risk box when a new signal appears.
Lookback (bars) for top anchor
How many bars to use to determine the top price level for dashboard placement.
Show HTF trend above risk box on signal
Only relevant if Dashboard position = Over Risk Info.
When enabled, a small HTF label appears near the risk box for each new trade.
Signal label vertical offset (ticks)
Vertical spacing between risk info label and HTF label.
Minimum spacing HTF/Risk (ticks)
Ensures a minimum vertical distance so the two labels don’t overlap.
HTF signal label X offset (bars)
Horizontal offset (left/right) relative to the risk info label.
⏳ 7. ORB–FVG Filters (Session & Time Window)
Group: “ORB FVG Filter”
Only same session day
If enabled, FVG entries are only allowed on the same calendar day
as the ORB. When the date changes, all state & drawings are reset.
Limit hours after ORB
Enables a time window after the ORB end.
Trading window after ORB (hours)
Length of that window in hours.
Example: 2.0 → FVG signals only in the first 2 hours after ORB end.
💰 8. Risk Management & Position Sizing
Group: “Risk Management”
Calculate position size
If enabled, the script computes suggested mini and micro contract size for you.
Account size
Your trading account size (in account currency).
Risk mode
Percent – risk is a % of account size (Account risk %).
Fixed amount – risk is a fixed dollar amount (Fixed risk ($)).
Account risk %
Risk per trade as a percentage of account size (e.g. 1.0 for 1%).
Fixed risk ($)
Fixed risk per trade in dollars when using Fixed amount mode.
Micro factor (vs mini)
How much a micro contract is worth relative to a mini.
Example:
0.1 → one micro moves 1/10 of one mini.
Risk Info label
For each new trade, a label is shown above the boxes with:
Stop distance in price and $ risk per mini
Max risk allowed for the trade
Suggested mini and micro size
Text like:
Suggested: 2 mini
Suggested: 5 micro
or Suggested: no trade
This makes the script especially useful for prop-firm rules or strict risk discipline.
🎨 9. Visual Style (Boxes, Labels, ORB Lines)
Group: “Box & Label Style (Trade)”
Label font size (Very small, Small, Normal, Large)
Entry label BG / text color
Stop label BG / text color
TP label BG / text color
Risk info BG / text color
Risk box color (entry–stop zone)
Reward box color (entry–TP zone)
Group: “ORB Style”
ORB high line color
ORB low line color
ORB line width
ORB label font size
ORB label background color
ORB label text color
Show ORB midline
ORB midline color / width / style (Solid / Dashed / Dotted)
⚠️ 10. Alerts
Group: “Alerts”
The script defines three alert conditions:
Long entry FVG breakout
Triggered when a new long signal appears.
Short entry FVG breakout
Triggered when a new short signal appears.
FVG entry (long/short)
Generic alert for any new signal (long or short).
To use them:
Add the indicator to the chart.
Open the Alerts dialog → “Condition”.
Select this script and one of the alert conditions.
Set your preferred expiration and notification settings.
Alerts only fire when Enable FVG entry signals, boxes & alerts is on.
🧩 11. How the trading logic flows (summary)
Build ORB on 1-minute data during the selected session.
Optionally reject the day if ORB is outside the ATR bounds.
Wait for a breakout (close above high or below low), respecting HTF trend filter.
After breakout, look for the first valid FVG in that direction:
Outside the ORB (unless breakout FVG allowed inside)
Confirmed by the next candle (no full reclaim)
Once confirmed:
Compute entry, stop, target.
Draw risk/reward boxes and all labels.
Optionally show HTF signal label over the risk info.
Trigger alerts if enabled.
If you disable FVG signals, only steps 1–3 (plus dashboard) are effectively active.
⚠️ 12. Notes & Disclaimer
Script is intended for intraday trading up to 15-minute timeframes.
All signals are mechanical and do not guarantee profitability.
Always backtest and forward-test on your own data before risking real money.
This script is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
🚀 Quick-start guide
Add the script to your chart
Use an intraday timeframe ≤ 15 minutes (1m, 3m, 5m, 15m).
Works best on liquid indices, futures, FX and large-cap stocks.
Set the Morning Range
In “Morning Range Session” choose the exchange’s opening window.
Examples
US index futures (CME): 08:30–08:45 or 08:30–08:35
US stocks (NYSE/Nasdaq): 09:30–09:45 or 09:30–09:35
The ORB is always calculated on 1-minute data internally, so the range stays accurate on higher intraday charts.
Keep the default filters at first
HTF Trend Filter: ON
EMA length = 20
This will only allow trades in the direction of the dominant D/W/M trend.
ATR Filter: OFF (optional; you can enable later once you’re comfortable).
Use the full trade system
In the FVG group leave
“Enable FVG entry signals, boxes & alerts” = ON
Entry mode: Mid
Stop mode: FVG Candle or PrevBar
Risk/Reward: 2.0 as a starting point.
Set your risk
Turn on “Calculate position size”.
Enter your Account size and choose either:
Risk mode = Percent (e.g. 1.0 = 1% per trade), or
Risk mode = Fixed amount (e.g. $250 per trade).
The risk info label will show:
Stop distance in price and $/contract
Max allowed risk
Suggested mini and micro contract size.
Enable alerts (optional)
Open the Alerts dialog → Condition: this script.
Choose one of:
Long entry FVG breakout
Short entry FVG breakout
FVG entry (long/short)
Choose “Once per bar” or “Once per bar close”, and your preferred notification type.
Replay & journal
Use the TradingView bar replay tool to step through past days.
Focus on:
How the ORB defines the structure.
How the first confirmed FVG outside the ORB behaves.
Whether the risk/TP levels fit your own style and product.
🎛 Recommended settings & profiles
These are starting points, not rules. Always adapt to the instrument and your own risk tolerance.
1. Conservative / Trend-following
Timeframe: 5m or 15m
Morning Range Session: 15-minute ORB around the cash or futures open
FVG
Threshold %: 0.05–0.1 (filter out very small gaps)
Auto threshold: OFF (keep it simple)
Allow breakout FVG partly inside ORB: OFF
Enable FVG entry signals/boxes/alerts: ON
Entry mode: Mid
Stop Logic
Stop mode: Pivot
Pivot left/right: 2–3
Stop buffer: +1–2 ticks
HTF Trend Filter
Enabled: ON
EMA length: 20
ATR Filter
Enabled: ON
Daily ATR length: 14
Min ORB vs ATR: 0.3–0.4
Max ORB vs ATR: 1.2–1.5
Risk Management
Risk mode: Percent
Account risk: 0.5–1.0%
Idea: Only trade when the higher-timeframe trend supports the move and the opening range is of a “normal” size for the current volatility.
2. Balanced / Intraday directional
Timeframe: 3m or 5m
FVG
Threshold %: 0.02–0.05
Auto threshold: ON (lets the script adapt to volatility)
Allow breakout FVG partly inside ORB: ON
(first breakout FVG may partly sit inside the ORB)
Entry mode: Edge
Edge offset (ticks): 0 or +1
Stop Logic
Stop mode: FVG Candle
Stop buffer: 0–1 ticks
HTF Trend Filter
Enabled: ON
ATR Filter
Enabled: OFF (optional)
Risk Management
Risk mode: Percent
Account risk: 1.0–1.5% (if this fits your plan)
Idea: Slightly more aggressive entries at the gap edge, still aligned with HTF trend, but with more flexibility on ATR.
3. Aggressive / Scalping around the ORB
Timeframe: 1m or 3m
FVG
Threshold %: 0.0–0.02
Auto threshold: ON
Allow breakout FVG partly inside ORB: ON
Entry mode: NextOpen or Edge with a negative offset (deeper into the gap)
Stop Logic
Stop mode: PrevBar
Stop buffer: 0 or -1 tick
HTF Trend Filter
Enabled: OFF (or ON but treat as soft guidance)
ATR Filter
Enabled: OFF
Risk Management
Risk mode: Percent
Account risk: lower, e.g. 0.25–0.5% per trade
Idea: More trades and tighter stops. Best for experienced traders who understand the limitations of scalping and whipsaw risk.
Final reminder
All of these are templates, not guarantees:
Always check how the system behaves on your market and session.
Start on replay and demo before trading real money.
Adjust filters (HTF, ATR, thresholds) until the signals fit your personal approach.
Buy on Blue, Sell on Red (EMA + optional RSI) TyusEThis indicator is a trend-following system that helps traders identify potential buy and sell opportunities using a combination of EMA crossovers and an optional RSI filter for confirmation.
It plots:
🔵 Blue dots (BUY signals) when the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA — signaling bullish momentum.
🔴 Red dots (SELL signals) when the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA — signaling bearish momentum.
You can optionally filter these signals using the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to avoid false breakouts — for example, only taking BUY signals when RSI is above 55 (showing strength) and SELL signals when RSI is below 45 (showing weakness).
⚙️ Features
Adjustable Fast EMA and Slow EMA lengths
Optional RSI confirmation filter
Customizable RSI thresholds for entries
“Confirm on bar close” setting to reduce repainting
Built-in alert conditions for real-time notifications
💡 How to Use
Use blue dots as potential long entries and red dots as potential short entries.
Confirm direction with overall trend, structure, or higher timeframe alignment.
Combine with support/resistance, volume, or price action for best results.
⚠️ Note
This is a technical tool, not financial advice. Always backtest and use proper risk management before trading live markets.
T.E
Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levelsYelober – Market Internals + Key Levels is a focused intraday trading tool that helps you spot high-probability price direction by anchoring decisions to structure that matters: yesterday’s RTH High/Low, today’s pre-market High/Low, and a fast Value Area/POC from the prior session. Paired with a compact market internals dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ UVOL vs. DVOL ratios, VOLD slopes, TICK/TICKQ momentum, and optional VIX trend), it gives you a real-time read on breadth so you can choose which direction to trade, when to enter (breaks, retests, or fades at PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC), and how to plan exits as internals confirm or deteriorate. On top of these intraday decision benefits, it also allows traders—in a very subtle but powerful way—to keep an eye on the VIX and immediately recognize significant spikes or sharp decreases that should be factored in before entering a trade, or used as a quick signal to modify an existing position. In short: clear levels for the chart, live internals for the context, and a smarter, rules-based path to execution.
# Yelober – Market Internals + Key Levels
*A TradingView indicator for session key levels + real‑time market internals (NYSE/NASDAQ TICK, UVOL/DVOL/VOLD, and VIX).*
**Script name in Pine:** `Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levels` (Pine v6)
---
## 1) What this indicator does
**Purpose:** Help intraday traders quickly find high‑probability reaction zones and read market internals momentum without switching charts. It overlays yesterday/today’s **automatic price levels** on your active chart and shows a **market breadth table** that summarizes NYSE/NASDAQ buying pressure and TICK direction, with an optional VIX trend read.
### Key features at a glance
* **Automatic Price Levels (overlay on chart)**
* Yesterday’s High/Low of Day (**yHoD**, **yLoD**)
* Extended Hours High/Low (**yEHH**, **yEHL**) across yesterday AH + today pre‑market
* Today’s Pre‑Market High/Low (**PMH**, **PML**)
* Yesterday’s **Value Area High/Low** (**VAH/VAL**) and **Point of Control (POC)** computed from a volume profile of yesterday’s **regular session**
* Smart de‑duplication:
* Shows **only the higher** of (yEHH vs PMH) and **only the lower** of (yEHL vs PML) to avoid redundant bands
* **Market Breadth Table (on‑chart table)**
* **NYSE ratio** = UVOL/DVOL (signed) with **VOLD slope** from session open
* **NASDAQ ratio** = UVOLQ/DVOLQ (signed) with **VOLDQ slope** from session open
* **TICK** and **TICKQ**: live cumulative ratio and short‑term slope
* **VIX** (optional): current value + slope over a configurable lookback/timeframe
* Color‑coded trends with sensible thresholds and optional normalization
---
## 2) How to use it (trader workflow)
1. **Mark your reaction zones**
* Watch **yHoD/yLoD**, **PMH/PML**, and **VAH/VAL/POC** for first touches, break/retest, and failure tests.
* Expect increased responsiveness when multiple levels cluster (e.g., PMH ≈ VAH ≈ daily pivot).
2. **Read the breadth panel for context**
* **NYSE/NASDAQ ratio** (>1 = more up‑volume than down‑volume; <−1 = down‑dominant). Strong green across both favors long setups; red favors short setups.
* **VOLD slopes** (NYSE & NASDAQ): positive and accelerating → broadening participation; negative → persistent pressure.
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative ratio and **slope arrows** (↗ / ↘ / →). Use the slope to gauge **near‑term thrust or fade**.
* **VIX slope**: rising VIX (red) often coincides with risk‑off; falling VIX (green) with risk‑on.
3. **Confluence = higher confidence**
* Example: Price reclaims **PMH** while **NYSE/NASDAQ ratios** print green and **TICK slopes** point ↗ — consider break‑and‑go; if VIX slope is ↘, that adds risk‑on confidence.
* Example: Price rejects **VAH** while **VOLD slopes** roll negative and VIX ↗ — consider fade/reversal.
4. **Risk management**
* Place stops just beyond key levels tested; if breadth flips, tighten or exit.
> **Timeframes:** Works best on 1–15m charts for intraday. Value Area is computed from **yesterday’s RTH**; choose a smaller calculation timeframe (e.g., 5–15m) for stable profiles.
---
## 3) Inputs & settings (what each option controls)
### Global Style
* **Enable all automatic price levels**: master toggle for yHoD/yLoD, yEHH/yEHL, PMH/PML, VAH/VAL/POC.
* **Line style/width**: applies to all drawn levels.
* **Label size/style** and **label color linking**: use the same color as the line or override with a global label color.
* **Maximum bars lookback**: how far the script scans to build yesterday metrics (performance‑sensitive).
### Value Area / Volume Profile
* **Enable Value Area calculations** *(on by default)*: computes yesterday’s **POC**, **VAH**, **VAL** from a simplified intraday volume profile built from yesterday’s **regular session bars**.
* **Max Volume Profile Points** *(default 50)*: lower values = faster; higher = more precise.
* **Value Area Calculation Timeframe** *(default 15)*: the security timeframe used when collecting yesterday’s highs/lows/volumes.
### Individual Level Toggles & Colors
* **yHoD / yLoD** (yesterday high/low)
* **yEHH / yEHL** (yesterday AH + today pre‑market extremes)
* **PMH / PML** (today pre‑market extremes)
* **VAH / VAL / POC** (yesterday RTH value area + point of control)
### Market Breadth Panel
* **Show NYSE / NASDAQ / VIX**: choose which series to display in the table.
* **Table Position / Size / Background Color**: UI placement and legibility.
* **Slope Averaging Periods** *(default 5)*: number of recent TICK/TICKQ ratio points used in slope calculation.
* **Candles for Rate** *(default 10)* & **Normalize Rate**: VIX slope calculation as % change between `now` and `n` candles ago; normalize divides by `n`.
* **VIX Timeframe**: optionally compute VIX on a higher TF (e.g., 15, 30, 60) for a smoother regime read.
* **Volume Normalization** (NYSE & NASDAQ): display VOLD slopes scaled to `tens/thousands/millions/10th millions` for readable magnitudes; color thresholds adapt to your choice.
---
## 4) Data sources & definitions
* **UVOL/VOLD (NYSE)** and **UVOLQ/DVOLQ/VOLDQ (NASDAQ)** via `request.security()`
* **Ratio** = `UVOL/DVOL` (signed; negative when down‑volume dominates)
* **VOLD slope** ≈ `(VOLD_now − VOLD_open) / bars_since_open`, then normalized per your setting
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative sum of prints this session with **positives vs negatives ratio**, plus a simple linear regression **slope** of the last `N` ratio values
* **VIX**: value and slope across a user‑selected timeframe and lookback
* **Sessions (EST/EDT)**
* **Regular:** 09:30–16:00
* **Pre‑Market:** 04:00–09:30
* **After Hours:** 16:00–20:00
* **Extended‑hours extremes** combine **yesterday AH** + **today PM**
> **Note:** All session checks are done with TradingView’s `time(…,"America/New_York")` context. If your broker’s RTH differs (e.g., futures), adjust expectations accordingly.
---
## 5) How the algorithms work (plain English)
### A) Key Levels
* **Yesterday’s RTH High/Low**: scans yesterday’s bars within 09:30–16:00 and records the extremes + bar indices.
* **Extended Hours**: scans yesterday AH and today PM to get **yEHH/yEHL**. Script shows **either yEHH or PMH** (whichever is **higher**) and **either yEHL or PML** (whichever is **lower**) to avoid duplicate bands stacked together.
* **Value Area & POC (RTH only)**
* Build a coarse volume profile with `Max Volume Profile Points` buckets across the price range formed by yesterday’s RTH bars.
* Distribute each bar’s volume uniformly across the buckets it spans (fast approximation to keep Pine within execution limits).
* **POC** = bucket with max volume. **VA** expands from POC outward until **70%** of cumulative volume is enclosed → yields **VAH/VAL**.
### B) Market Breadth Table
* **NYSE/NASDAQ Ratio**: signed UVOL/DVOL with basic coloring.
* **VOLD Slopes**: from session open to current, normalized to human‑readable units; colors flip green/red based on thresholds that map to your normalization setting (e.g., ±2M for NYSE, ±3.5×10M for NASDAQ).
* **TICK/TICKQ Slope**: linear regression over the last `N` ratio points → **↗ / → / ↘** with the rounded slope value.
* **VIX Slope**: % change between now and `n` candles ago (optionally divided by `n`). Red when rising beyond threshold; green when falling.
---
## 6) Recommended presets
* **Stocks (liquid, intraday)**
* Value Area **ON**, `Max Volume Points` = **40–60**, **Timeframe** = **5–15**
* Breadth: show **NYSE & NASDAQ & VIX**, `Slope periods` = **5–8**, `Candles for rate` = **10–20**, **Normalize VIX** = **ON**
* **Index futures / very high‑volume symbols**
* If you see Pine timeouts, set `Max Volume Points` = **20–40** or temporarily **disable Value Area**.
* Keep breadth panel **ON** (it’s light). Consider **VIX timeframe = 15/30** for regime clarity.
---
## 7) Tips, edge cases & performance
* **Performance:** The volume profile is capped (`maxBarsToProcess ≤ 500` and bucketed) to keep it responsive. If you experience slowdowns, reduce `Max Volume Points`, `Maximum bars lookback`, or disable Value Area.
* **Redundant lines:** The script **intentionally suppresses** PMH/PML when yEHH/yEHL are more extreme, and vice‑versa.
* **Label visibility:** Use `Label style = none` if you only want clean lines and read values from the right‑end labels.
* **Futures/RTH differences:** Value Area is from **yesterday’s RTH** only; for 24h instruments the RTH period may not reflect overnight structure.
* **Session transitions:** PMH/PML tracking stops as soon as RTH starts; values persist as static levels for the session.
---
## 8) Known limitations
* Uses public TradingView symbols: `UVOL`, `VOLD`, `UVOLQ`, `DVOLQ`, `VOLDQ`, `TICK`, `TICKQ`, `VIX`. If your data plan or region limits any symbol, the corresponding table rows may show `na`.
* The VA/POC approximation assumes uniform distribution of each bar’s volume across its high–low. That’s fast but not a tick‑level profile.
* Works best on US equities with standard NY session; alternative sessions may need code changes.
---
## 9) Troubleshooting
* **“Script is too slow / timed out”** → Lower `Max Volume Points`, lower `Maximum bars lookback`, or toggle **OFF** `Enable Value Area calculations` for that instrument.
* **Missing breadth values** → Ensure the symbols above load on your account; try reloading chart or switching timeframes once.
* **Overlapping labels** → Set `Label style = none` or reduce label size.
---
## 10) Version / license / contribution
* **Version:** Initial public release (Pine v6).
* **Author:** © yelober
* **License:** Free for community use and enhancement. Please keep author credit.
* **Contributing:** Open PRs/ideas: presets, alert conditions, multi‑day VA composites, optional mid‑value (`(VAH+VAL)/2`), session filter for futures, and alertable state machine for breadth regime transitions.
---
## 11) Quick start (TL;DR)
1. Add the indicator and **keep default settings**.
2. Trade **reactions** at yHoD/yLoD/PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC.
3. Use the **breadth table**: look for **green ratios + ↗ slopes** (risk‑on) or **red ratios + ↘ slopes** (risk‑off). Check **VIX** slope for confirmation.
4. Manage risk around levels; when breadth flips against you, tighten or exit.
---
### Changelog (public)
* **v1.0:** First community release with automatic RTH levels, VA/POC approximation, breadth dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ/TICK/TICKQ/VIX) with normalization and adaptive color thresholds.
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
Advanced Currency Strength Meter# Advanced Currency Strength Meter (ACSM)
The Advanced Currency Strength Meter (ACSM) is a scientifically-based indicator that measures relative currency strength using established academic methodologies from international finance and behavioral economics. This indicator provides traders with a comprehensive view of currency market dynamics through multiple analytical frameworks.
### Theoretical Foundation
#### 1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Theory
Based on Cassel's (1918) seminal work and refined by Froot & Rogoff (1995), PPP suggests that exchange rates should reflect relative price levels between countries. The ACSM momentum component captures deviations from long-term equilibrium relationships, providing insights into currency misalignments.
#### 2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Carry Trade Theory
Building on Fama (1984) and Lustig et al. (2007), the indicator incorporates volatility-adjusted momentum to capture carry trade flows and interest rate differentials that drive currency strength. This approach helps identify currencies benefiting from interest rate differentials.
#### 3. Behavioral Finance and Currency Momentum
Following Burnside et al. (2011) and Menkhoff et al. (2012), the model recognizes that currency markets exhibit persistent momentum effects due to behavioral biases and institutional flows. The indicator captures these momentum patterns for trading opportunities.
#### 4. Portfolio Balance Theory
Based on Branson & Henderson (1985), the relative strength matrix captures how portfolio rebalancing affects currency cross-rates and creates trading opportunities between different currency pairs.
### Technical Implementation
#### Core Methodologies:
- **Z-Score Normalization**: Following Sharpe (1994), provides statistical significance testing without arbitrary scaling
- **Momentum Analysis**: Uses return-based metrics (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993) for trend identification
- **Volatility Adjustment**: Implements Average True Range methodology (Wilder, 1978) for risk-adjusted strength
- **Composite Scoring**: Equal-weight methodology to avoid overfitting and maintain robustness
- **Correlation Analysis**: Risk management framework based on Markowitz (1952) portfolio theory
#### Key Features:
- **Multi-Source Data Integration**: Supports OANDA, Futures, and CFD data sources
- **Scientific Methodology**: No arbitrary scaling or curve-fitting; all calculations based on established statistical methods
- **Comprehensive Dashboard**: Clean, professional table showing currency strengths and best trading pairs
- **Alert System**: Automated notifications for strong/weak currency conditions and extreme values
- **Best Pair Identification**: Algorithmic detection of highest-potential trading opportunities
### Practical Applications
#### For Swing Traders:
- Identify currencies in strong uptrends or downtrends
- Select optimal currency pairs based on relative strength divergence
- Time entries based on momentum convergence/divergence
#### For Day Traders:
- Use with real-time futures data for intraday opportunities
- Monitor currency correlations for risk management
- Detect early reversal signals through extreme value alerts
#### For Portfolio Managers:
- Multi-currency exposure analysis
- Risk management through correlation monitoring
- Strategic currency allocation decisions
### Visual Design
The indicator features a clean, professional dashboard that displays:
- **Currency Strength Values**: Each major currency (EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, NZD, USD) with color-coded strength values
- **Best Trading Pairs**: Filtered list of highest-potential currency pairs with BUY/SELL signals
- **Market Analysis**: Real-time identification of strongest and weakest currencies
- **Potential Score**: Quantitative measure of trading opportunity strength
### Data Sources and Latency
The indicator supports multiple data sources to accommodate different trading needs:
- **OANDA (Delayed)**: Free data with 15-20 minute delay, suitable for swing trading
- **Futures (Real-time)**: CME currency futures for real-time analysis
- **CFDs**: Alternative real-time data source option
### Mathematical Framework
#### Strength Calculation:
Momentum = (Price - Price ) / Price * 100
Z-Score = (Price - Mean) / Standard Deviation
Volatility-Adjusted = Momentum / ATR-based Volatility
Composite = 0.5 * Momentum + 0.3 * Z-Score + 0.2 * Volatility-Adjusted
#### USD Strength Derivation:
USD strength is calculated as the weighted average of all USD-based pairs, providing a true baseline for relative strength comparison.
### Performance Considerations
The indicator is optimized for:
- **Computational Efficiency**: Uses Pine Script v6 best practices
- **Memory Management**: Appropriate lookback periods and array handling
- **Visual Clarity**: Clean table design optimized for both light and dark themes
- **Alert Reliability**: Robust signal generation with statistical significance testing
### Limitations and Risk Disclosure
- Model performance may vary during extreme market stress (Black Swan events)
- Requires stable data feeds for accurate calculations
- Not optimized for high-frequency scalping strategies
- Central bank interventions may temporarily distort signals
- Performance assumes normal market conditions with behavioral adjustments
### Academic References
- Branson, W. H., & Henderson, D. W. (1985). "The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets"
- Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets"
- Cassel, G. (1918). "Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges"
- Fama, E. F. (1984). "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates"
- Froot, K. A., & Rogoff, K. (1995). "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates"
- Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers"
- Lustig, H., Roussanov, N., & Verdelhan, A. (2007). "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets"
- Markowitz, H. (1952). "Portfolio Selection"
- Menkhoff, L., Sarno, L., Schmeling, M., & Schrimpf, A. (2012). "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility"
- Sharpe, W. F. (1994). "The Sharpe Ratio"
- Wilder, J. W. (1978). "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"
### Usage Instructions
1. **Setup**: Add the indicator to your chart and select your preferred data source
2. **Currency Selection**: Choose which currencies to analyze (default: all major currencies)
3. **Methodology**: Select calculation method (Composite recommended for most users)
4. **Monitoring**: Watch the dashboard for strength changes and best pair opportunities
5. **Alerts**: Set up notifications for strong/weak currency conditions
OI Bahavior MapThis indicator visualizes Open Interest (OI) changes for Binance Futures and highlights the behavior of market participants — whether takers or makers are opening or closing positions.
📊 Supported display modes:
• Taker or Maker
• Longs or Shorts
• Cumulative or Per-Bar
• Displayed in USD or Coins
💡 Each candle color reflects the dominant trade direction (delta):
🟢 Green = Aggressive buying (Delta Buy)
🔴 Red = Aggressive selling (Delta Sell)
OI direction (↑/↓) determines whether positions are being opened or closed.
🛠️ Optional metrics:
• Moving average of OI (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, LSMA)
• Volatility channels (Bollinger Bands or Extremums)
⚙️ How it works:
• Fetches OI data from the SYMBOL_OI ticker (e.g., BTCUSDT_OI)
• Compares current OI with the previous bar
• Uses signed volume delta (close - open) to infer intent
• Classifies bar as open/close, long/short, taker/maker
• Displays the net effect as a colored candle on a secondary chart
🤔 How to interpret Taker and Maker?
• Taker: The aggressive participant who removes liquidity (initiates the trade)
• Maker: The passive participant who provides liquidity (places resting orders)
You can choose to display the same event from either the Taker or Maker perspective — the chart will look the same, but the interpretation changes.
🧠 Core Logic Mapping
```
🟢 Green: Taker Longs (Buy, OI↑) | Maker Shorts (Buy, OI↓)
🔴 Red: Taker Shorts (Sell, OI↑) | Maker Longs (Sell, OI↓)
```
⚠️ Limitations:
• Works only for Binance Futures
• Requires existence of SYMBOL_OI ticker on TradingView
• Represents approximate intent based on OI + volume behavior
💬 Open Source
The script is open for the community. Suggestions and feedback are welcome in the comments!
__________________________________________________________________________________
Этот индикатор визуализирует изменения открытого интереса (OI) для Binance Futures и показывает поведение участников рынка — открывают или закрывают позиции тейкеры или мейкеры.
📊 Доступные режимы отображения:
• Taker или Maker
• Longs или Shorts
• Кумулятивный или по бару
• В USD или в монетах
💡 Каждый цвет свечи отражает преобладающее направление сделок (дельта):
🟢 Зеленый = Агрессивные покупки (Delta Buy)
🔴 Красный = Агрессивные продажи (Delta Sell)
Направление OI (↑/↓) показывает, открываются или закрываются позиции.
🛠️ Дополнительные метрики:
• Скользящая средняя OI (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, LSMA)
• Волатильностные каналы (Bollinger Bands или экстремумы)
⚙️ Как работает:
• Получает данные OI из тикера SYMBOL_OI (например, BTCUSDT_OI)
• Сравнивает текущий OI с предыдущим баром
• Использует направленную дельту объема (close - open) для определения намерения
• Классифицирует бар как открытие/закрытие, лонг/шорт, тейкер/мейкер
• Отображает итог в виде цветной свечи на дополнительном графике
🤔 Как интерпретировать Taker и Maker?
• Taker: Агрессивный участник, который изымает ликвидность (инициирует сделку)
• Maker: Пассивный участник, который создает ликвидность (выставляет лимитные заявки)
Вы можете выбрать отображение события с позиции тейкера или мейкера — график будет одинаковым, но смысл меняется.
🧠 Схема логики
```
🟢 Зеленый: Taker Longs (Покупка, OI↑) | Maker Shorts (Покупка, OI↓)
🔴 Красный: Taker Shorts (Продажа, OI↑) | Maker Longs (Продажа, OI↓)
```
⚠️ Ограничения:
• Работает только для Binance Futures
• Требуется наличие тикера SYMBOL_OI на TradingView
• Показывает приблизительное намерение на основе OI и дельты объема
💬 Open Source
Скрипт открыт для сообщества. Предложения и обратная связь приветствуются в комментариях!
PumpC Opening Range Breakout (ORB) 5min Range📄 PumpC ORB 5-Minute Opening Range Breakout Indicator
✨ Overview
The PumpC ORB 5-Minute Opening Range Breakout indicator captures early session price action by tracking the high, low, and open of a defined 5-minute window at market open (customized for Futures or Stocks).
It plots breakout levels, extension targets, average range calculations, volume tracking, and provides visual and table-based data summaries.
This indicator is designed for traders seeking a complete, clean visualization of Opening Range Breakouts (ORB) with flexible customization.
⚙️ Main Features
Opening Range Box (ORB Box) Draws a box around the high and low of the first 5-minute session (8:30–8:35 ET for Futures, 9:30–9:35 ET for Stocks). Box extends from the session open to the session close (4:00 PM ET). Option to enable/disable historical boxes. Box color and opacity are customizable. Core ORB Levels Open Level: Plots the open price of the 5-minute ORB window. ORB Levels: Plots breakout levels at multiples: +0.5x the range +1.5x the range (customizable factor) Each level has independent color settings and visibility toggles. Option to show or hide historic extension levels. Table Display Compact table in the top-right corner showing: ORB ATR (average range) ORB ATR in ticks Today's ORB range ORB Volume ATR (average volume during ORB) Today's ORB Volume Volume is formatted automatically into "K" (thousands) or "M" (millions) for readability. Background Highlights After the ORB window closes: Blue highlight if today's ORB range is greater than the 10-day ATR average. Orange highlight if today's ORB range is smaller than the 10-day ATR average. Helps quickly assess relative strength or weakness compared to historical behavior. Alerts Breakout Confirmations: Fires when price closes above ORB High or below ORB Low. Fallout Traps: Alerts when price wick crosses ORB High/Low but closes back inside the range. Alerts use clean titles and simple messages for easy identification.
🔧 Inputs and Customization
Mode Toggle: Choose between Futures (8:30 ET open) or Stocks (9:30 ET open). Show/Hide Labels: Control label visibility for ORB and extension levels. Line Width Control: Customize thickness for ORB lines and extension levels. ORB Level Level Visibility: Independently enable or disable each extension line. Table Appearance: Customize table background color, font color, and padding. ORB Box Settings: Customize box color and control whether historical boxes are drawn.
📚 How to Use
Select Mode: Choose Futures or Stocks depending on your instrument. Observe the Opening Range: Focus on the ORB High and ORB Low during the first 5 minutes after the open. Monitor Breakouts: Breakout alerts will fire when price closes outside the ORB range, signaling potential continuation. Watch for Fallout Traps: Fallout alerts signal when price briefly wicks above/below but closes back inside the ORB range. Use Table Metrics: Instantly compare today's ORB range and volume versus historical averages to assess session strength or weakness.
🛡️ Notes
Best used on the 1-minute or 5-minute chart for intraday trading. Ensure your TradingView chart time zone is set to New York for correct functioning. Alerts must be manually configured after adding the indicator to your chart.
TASC 2025.05 Trading The Channel█ OVERVIEW
This script implements channel-based trading strategies based on the concepts explained by Perry J. Kaufman in the article "A Test Of Three Approaches: Trading The Channel" from the May 2025 edition of TASC's Traders' Tips . The script explores three distinct trading methods for equities and futures using information from a linear regression channel. Each rule set corresponds to different market behaviors, offering flexibility for trend-following, breakout, and mean-reversion trading styles.
█ CONCEPTS
Linear regression
Linear regression is a model that estimates the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables by fitting a straight line to the observed data. In the context of financial time series, traders often use linear regression to estimate trends in price movements over time.
The slope of the linear regression line indicates the strength and direction of the price trend. For example, a larger positive slope indicates a stronger upward trend, and a larger negative slope indicates the opposite. Traders can look for shifts in the direction of a linear regression slope to identify potential trend trading signals, and they can analyze the magnitude of the slope to support trading decisions.
One caveat to linear regression is that most financial time series data does not follow a straight line, meaning a regression line cannot perfectly describe the relationships between values. Prices typically fluctuate around a regression line to some degree. As such, analysts often project ranges above and below regression lines, creating channels to model the expected extent of the data's variability. This strategy constructs a channel based on the method used in Kaufman's article. It measures the maximum distances from points on the linear regression line to historical price values, then adds those distances and the current slope to the regression points.
Depending on the trading style, traders might look for prices to move outside an established channel for breakout signals, or they might look for price action to reach extremes within the channel for potential mean reversion opportunities.
█ STRATEGY CALCULATIONS
Primary trade rules
This strategy implements three distinct sets of rules for trend, breakout, and mean-reversion trades based on the methods Kaufman describes in his article:
Trade the trend (Rule 1) : Open new positions when the sign of the slope changes, indicating a potential trend reversal. Close short trades and enter a long trade when the slope changes from negative to positive, and do the opposite when the slope changes from positive to negative.
Trade channel breakouts (Rule 2) : Open new positions when prices cross outside the linear regression channel for the current sample. Close short trades and enter a long trade when the price moves above the channel, and do the opposite when the price moves below the channel.
Trade within the channel (Rule 3) : Open new positions based on price values within the channel's range. Close short trades and enter a long trade when the price is near the channel's low, within a specified percentage of the channel's range, and do the opposite when the price is near the channel's high. With this rule, users can also filter the trades based on the channel's slope. When the filter is active, long positions are allowed only when the slope is positive, and short positions are allowed only when it is negative.
Position sizing
Kaufman's strategy uses specific trade sizes for equities and futures markets:
For an equities symbol, the number of shares traded is $10,000 divided by the current price.
For a futures symbol, the number of contracts traded is based on a volatility-adjusted formula that divides $25,000 by the product of the 20-bar average true range and the instrument's point value.
By default, this script automatically uses these sizes for its trade simulation on equities and futures symbols and does not simulate trading on other symbols. However, users can control position sizes from the "Settings/Properties" tab and enable trade simulation on other symbol types by selecting the "Manual" option in the script's "Position sizing" input.
Stop-loss
This strategy includes the option to place an accompanying stop-loss order for each trade, which users can enable from the "SL %" input in the "Settings/Inputs" tab. When enabled, the strategy places a stop-loss order at a specified percentage distance from the closing price where the entry order occurs, allowing users to compare how the strategy performs with added loss protection.
█ USAGE
This strategy adapts its display logic for the three trading approaches based on the rule selected in the "Trade rule" input:
For all rules, the script plots the linear regression slope in a separate pane. The plot is color-coded to indicate whether the current slope is positive or negative.
When the selected rule is "Trade the trend", the script plots triangles in the separate pane to indicate when the slope's direction changes from positive to negative or vice versa. Additionally, it plots a color-coded SMA on the main chart pane, allowing visual comparison of the slope to directional changes in a moving average.
When the rule is "Trade channel breakouts" or "Trade within the channel", the script draws the current period's linear regression channel on the main chart pane, and it plots bands representing the history of the channel values from the specified start time onward.
When the rule is "Trade within the channel", the script plots overbought and oversold zones between the bands based on a user-specified percentage of the channel range to indicate the value ranges where new trades are allowed.
Users can customize the strategy's calculations with the following additional inputs in the "Settings/Inputs" tab:
Start date : Sets the date and time when the strategy begins simulating trades. The script marks the specified point on the chart with a gray vertical line. The plots for rules 2 and 3 display the bands and trading zones from this point onward.
Period : Specifies the number of bars in the linear regression channel calculation. The default is 40.
Linreg source : Specifies the source series from which to calculate the linear regression values. The default is "close".
Range source : Specifies whether the script uses the distances from the linear regression line to closing prices or high and low prices to determine the channel's upper and lower ranges for rules 2 and 3. The default is "close".
Zone % : The percentage of the channel's overall range to use for trading zones with rule 3. The default is 20, meaning the width of the upper and lower zones is 20% of the range.
SL% : If the checkbox is selected, the strategy adds a stop-loss to each trade at the specified percentage distance away from the closing price where the entry order occurs. The checkbox is deselected by default, and the default percentage value is 5.
Position sizing : Determines whether the strategy uses Kaufman's predefined trade sizes ("Auto") or allows user-defined sizes from the "Settings/Properties" tab ("Manual"). The default is "Auto".
Long trades only : If selected, the strategy does not allow short positions. It is deselected by default.
Trend filter : If selected, the strategy filters positions for rule 3 based on the linear regression slope, allowing long positions only when the slope is positive and short positions only when the slope is negative. It is deselected by default.
NOTE: Because of this strategy's trading rules, the simulated results for a specific symbol or channel configuration might have significantly fewer than 100 trades. For meaningful results, we recommend adjusting the start date and other parameters to achieve a reasonable number of closed trades for analysis.
Additionally, this strategy does not specify commission and slippage amounts by default, because these values can vary across market types. Therefore, we recommend setting realistic values for these properties in the "Cost simulation" section of the "Settings/Properties" tab.
Dskyz (DAFE) MAtrix with ATR-Powered Precision Dskyz (DAFE) MAtrix with ATR-Powered Precision
This cutting‐edge futures trading strategy built to thrive in rapidly changing market conditions. Developed for high-frequency futures trading on instruments such as the CME Mini MNQ, this strategy leverages a matrix of sophisticated moving averages combined with ATR-based filters to pinpoint high-probability entries and exits. Its unique combination of adaptable technical indicators and multi-timeframe trend filtering sets it apart from standard strategies, providing enhanced precision and dynamic responsiveness.
imgur.com
Core Functional Components
1. Advanced Moving Averages
A distinguishing feature of the DAFE strategy is its robust, multi-choice moving averages (MAs). Clients can choose from a wide array of MAs—each with specific strengths—in order to fine-tune their trading signals. The code includes user-defined functions for the following MAs:
imgur.com
Hull Moving Average (HMA):
The hma(src, len) function calculates the HMA by using weighted moving averages (WMAs) to reduce lag considerably while smoothing price data. This function computes an intermediate WMA of half the specified length, then a full-length WMA, and finally applies a further WMA over the square root of the length. This design allows for rapid adaptation to price changes without the typical delays of traditional moving averages.
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA):
Implemented via tema(src, len), TEMA uses three consecutive exponential moving averages (EMAs) to effectively cancel out lag and capture price momentum. The final formula—3 * (ema1 - ema2) + ema3—produces a highly responsive indicator that filters out short-term noise.
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA):
Through the dema(src, len) function, DEMA calculates an EMA and then a second EMA on top of it. Its simplified formula of 2 * ema1 - ema2 provides a smoother curve than a single EMA while maintaining enhanced responsiveness.
Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA):
With vwma(src, len), this MA accounts for trading volume by weighting the price, thereby offering a more contextual picture of market activity. This is crucial when volume spikes indicate significant moves.
Zero Lag EMA (ZLEMA):
The zlema(src, len) function applies a correction to reduce the inherent lag found in EMAs. By subtracting a calculated lag (based on half the moving average window), ZLEMA is exceptionally attuned to recent price movements.
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA):
The alma(src, len, offset, sigma) function introduces ALMA—a type of moving average designed to be less affected by outliers. With parameters for offset and sigma, it allows customization of the degree to which the MA reacts to market noise.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA):
The custom kama(src, len) function is noteworthy for its adaptive nature. It computes an efficiency ratio by comparing price change against volatility, then dynamically adjusts its smoothing constant. This results in an MA that quickly responds during trending periods while remaining smoothed during consolidation.
Each of these functions—integrated into the strategy—is selectable by the trader (via the fastMAType and slowMAType inputs). This flexibility permits the tailored application of the MA most suited to current market dynamics and individual risk management preferences.
2. ATR-Based Filters and Risk Controls
ATR Calculation and Volatility Filter:
The strategy computes the Average True Range (ATR) over a user-defined period (atrPeriod). ATR is then used to derive both:
Volatility Assessment: Expressed as a ratio of ATR to closing price, ensuring that trades are taken only when volatility remains within a safe, predefined threshold (volatilityThreshold).
ATR-Based Entry Filters: Implemented as atrFilterLong and atrFilterShort, these conditions ensure that for long entries the price is sufficiently above the slow MA and vice versa for shorts. This acts as an additional confirmation filter.
Dynamic Exit Management:
The exit logic employs a dual approach:
Fixed Stop and Profit Target: Stops and targets are set at multiples of ATR (fixedStopMultiplier and profitTargetATRMult), helping manage risk in volatile markets.
Trailing Stop Adjustments: A trailing stop is calculated using the ATR multiplied by a user-defined offset (trailOffset), which captures additional profits as the trade moves favorably while protecting against reversals.
3. Multi-Timeframe Trend Filtering
The strategy enhances its signal reliability by leveraging a secondary, higher timeframe analysis:
15-Minute Trend Analysis:
By retrieving 15-minute moving averages (fastMA15m and slowMA15m) via request.security, the strategy determines the broader market trend. This secondary filter (enabled or disabled through useTrendFilter) ensures that entries are aligned with the prevailing market direction, thereby reducing the incidence of false signals.
4. Signal and Execution Logic
Combined MA Alignment:
The entry conditions are based primarily on the alignment of the fast and slow MAs. A long condition is triggered when the current price is above both MAs and the fast MA is above the slow MA—complemented by the ATR filter and volume conditions. The reverse applies for a short condition.
Volume and Time Window Validation:
Trades are permitted only if the current volume exceeds a minimum (minVolume) and the current hour falls within the predefined trading window (tradingStartHour to tradingEndHour). An additional volume spike check (comparing current volume to a moving average of past volumes) further filters for optimal market conditions.
Comprehensive Order Execution:
The strategy utilizes flexible order execution functions that allow pyramiding (up to 10 positions), ensuring that it can scale into positions as favorable conditions persist. The use of both market entries and automated exits (with profit targets, stop-losses, and trailing stops) ensures that risk is managed at every step.
5. Integrated Dashboard and Metrics
For transparency and real-time analysis, the strategy includes:
On-Chart Visualizations:
Both fast and slow MAs are plotted on the chart, making it easy to see the market’s technical foundation.
Dynamic Metrics Dashboard:
A built-in table displays crucial performance statistics—including current profit/loss, equity, ATR (both raw and as a percentage), and the percentage gap between the moving averages. These metrics offer immediate insight into the health and performance of the strategy.
Input Parameters: Detailed Breakdown
Every input is meticulously designed to offer granular control:
Fast & Slow Lengths:
Determine the window size for the fast and slow moving averages. Smaller values yield more sensitivity, while larger values provide a smoother, delayed response.
Fast/Slow MA Types:
Choose the type of moving average for fast and slow signals. The versatility—from basic SMA and EMA to more complex ones like HMA, TEMA, ZLEMA, ALMA, and KAMA—allows customization to fit different market scenarios.
ATR Parameters:
atrPeriod and atrMultiplier shape the volatility assessment, directly affecting entry filters and risk management through stop-loss and profit target levels.
Trend and Volume Filters:
Inputs such as useTrendFilter, minVolume, and the volume spike condition help confirm that a trade occurs in active, trending markets rather than during periods of low liquidity or market noise.
Trading Hours:
Restricting trade execution to specific hours (tradingStartHour and tradingEndHour) helps avoid illiquid or choppy markets outside of prime trading sessions.
Exit Strategies:
Parameters like trailOffset, profitTargetATRMult, and fixedStopMultiplier provide multiple layers of risk management and profit protection by tailoring how exits are generated relative to current market conditions.
Pyramiding and Fixed Trade Quantity:
The strategy supports multiple entries within a trend (up to 10 positions) and sets a predefined trade quantity (fixedQuantity) to maintain consistent exposure and risk per trade.
Dashboard Controls:
The resetDashboard input allows for on-the-fly resetting of performance metrics, keeping the strategy’s performance dashboard accurate and up-to-date.
Why This Strategy is Truly Exceptional
Multi-Faceted Adaptability:
The ability to switch seamlessly between various moving average types—each suited to particular market conditions—enables the strategy to adapt dynamically. This is a testament to the high level of coding sophistication and market insight infused within the system.
Robust Risk Management:
The integration of ATR-based stops, profit targets, and trailing stops ensures that every trade is executed with well-defined risk parameters. The system is designed to mitigate unexpected market swings while optimizing profit capture.
Comprehensive Market Filtering:
By combining moving average crossovers with volume analysis, volatility thresholds, and multi-timeframe trend filters, the strategy only enters trades under the most favorable conditions. This multi-layered filtering reduces noise and enhances signal quality.
-Final Thoughts-
The Dskyz Adaptive Futures Elite (DAFE) MAtrix with ATR-Powered Precision strategy is not just another trading algorithm—it is a multi-dimensional, fully customizable system built on advanced technical principles and sophisticated risk management techniques. Every function and input parameter has been carefully engineered to provide traders with a system that is both powerful and transparent.
For clients seeking a state-of-the-art trading solution that adapts dynamically to market conditions while maintaining strict discipline in risk management, this strategy truly stands in a class of its own.
****Please show support if you enjoyed this strategy. I'll have more coming out in the near future!!
-Dskyz
Caution
DAFE is experimental, not a profit guarantee. Futures trading risks significant losses due to leverage. Backtest, simulate, and monitor actively before live use. All trading decisions are your responsibility.
