SMA200 - 400 Cross AlertYou can set the alarm by clicking the three dots on the top left of the main chart.
Alarms for Golden Cross and Dead Cross are available.
Cerca negli script per "GOLD"
VPOC Harmonics - Liquidity-Weighted Price / Time RatiosVPOC Harmonics - Liquidity-Weighted Price / Time Ratios
Summary
This indicator transforms a swing’s price range, duration, and liquidity profile into a structured set of price-per-bar ratios. By anchoring two points and manually entering the swing’s VPOC (highest-volume price), it generates candidate compression values that unify price, time, and liquidity structure. These values can be applied to chart scaling, harmonic testing, and liquidity-aware market geometry.
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Overview
Most swing analysis tools only consider price (ΔP) and time (N bars). This script goes further by incorporating the VPOC (Point of Control) — the price with the highest traded volume — directly into swing geometry.
• Anchors define the swing’s Low (L), High (H), and bar count (N).
• The user manually enters the VPOC (highest-volume price).
• The indicator then computes a suite of ratios that integrate range, duration, and liquidity placement.
The output is a table of liquidity-weighted price-per-bar candidates, designed for compression testing and harmonic analysis across swings and instruments.
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How to Use
1. Select a Swing
- Place Anchor A and Anchor B to define the swing’s Low, High, and bar count.
2. Find the VPOC
- Apply TradingView’s Fixed Range Volume Profile tool over the same swing.
- Identify the Point of Control (POC) — the price level with the highest traded volume.
3. Enter the VPOC
- Manually input the POC into the indicator settings.
4. Review Outputs
- The table will display candidate ratios expressed mainly as price-per-bar values.
5. Apply in Practice
- Use the ratios as chart compression inputs or as benchmarks for testing harmonic alignments across swings.
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Outputs
Swing & Inputs
• Bars (N): total bar count of the swing.
• Low (L): swing low price.
• High (H): swing high price.
• ΔP = H − L: price range.
• Mid = (L + H) ÷ 2: midpoint price.
• VPOC (V): user-entered highest-volume price.
• Base slope s0 = ΔP ÷ N: average change per bar.
• π-adjusted slope sπ = (π × ΔP) ÷ (2 × N): slope adjusted for half-cycle arc geometry.
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VPOC Harmony Ratios (L, H, V, N)
• λ = (V − L) ÷ ΔP: normalized VPOC position within the range.
• R = (V − L) ÷ (H − V): symmetry ratio comparing lower vs. upper segment.
• s1 = (V − L) ÷ N: slope from Low → VPOC.
• s2 = (H − V) ÷ N: slope from VPOC → High.
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Blended Means (s1, s2)
These combine the two segment slopes in different ways:
• HM(s1,s2) = 2 ÷ (1/s1 + 1/s2): Harmonic mean, emphasizes the smaller slope.
• GM(s1,s2) = sqrt(s1 × s2): Geometric mean, balances both slopes proportionally.
• RMS(s1,s2) = sqrt((s1² + s2²) ÷ 2): Root-mean-square, emphasizes the larger slope.
• L2 = sqrt(s1² + s2²): Euclidean norm, the vector length of both slopes combined.
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Slope Blends
• Quadratic weighting: s_quad = s0 × ((V−L)² + (H−V)²) ÷ (ΔP²)
• Tilted slope: s_tilt = s0 × (0.5 + λ)
• Entropy-scaled slope: s_ent = s0 × H2(λ), with H2(λ) = −
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Curvature & Liquidity Extensions
• π-arc × λ: s_arc = sπ × λ
• Liquidity-π: s_piV = sπ × (V ÷ Mid)
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Scale-Normalized Families
With k = sqrt(H ÷ L):
• k (scale factor) = sqrt(H ÷ L)
• s_comp = s0 ÷ k: compressed slope candidate
• s_exp = s0 × k: expanded slope candidate
• Exponentiated blends:
- s_kλ = s0 × k^(2λ−1)
- s_φλ = s0 × φ^(2λ−1), with φ = golden ratio ≈ 1.618
- s_√2λ = s0 × (√2)^(2λ−1)
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Practical Application
All formulas generate liquidity-weighted price-per-bar ratios that integrate range, time, and VPOC placement.
These values are designed for:
• Chart compression settings
• Testing harmonic alignments across swings
• Liquidity-aware scaling experiments
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Multi Stoch + VWAP Heatmap + Histogram + ScalpingThis indicator was developed by referencing various indicators from many contributors. I apologize that I cannot identify all the original authors due to the numerous sources referenced. Thank you to everyone who contributed to the trading community.
Important Notice: Please use this indicator with sufficient caution and proper risk management. I do not assume any responsibility for any losses incurred from using this indicator. Trade at your own risk.
Alternative version:
Acknowledgment & Disclaimer:
This indicator incorporates ideas and concepts from numerous community indicators. I sincerely apologize for not being able to properly credit all the original creators due to the extensive references used. My heartfelt gratitude goes out to all the talented developers in the trading community.
Risk Warning: Please exercise extreme caution when using this indicator. All trading involves substantial risk of loss, and I accept no liability for any financial losses that may result from the use of this indicator. Always implement proper risk management and trade responsibly.
Multi Stoch + VWAP Heatmap + Histogram + Scalping Usage Guide
🔧 Basic Settings
Parameter Settings (Recommended for XAU/USD)
Fast Stoch Length: 5 # Ultra-short term trend
Medium Stoch Length: 14 # Short term trend
Slow Stoch Length: 21 # Medium term trend
%K Smoothing: 2 # High sensitivity setting
%D Smoothing: 2 # High sensitivity setting
Overbought Level: 75 # Sell zone
Oversold Level: 25 # Buy zone
📈 Reading the Chart
1. Histogram (Background Bar Chart)
Green tones: Strong uptrend
Red tones: Strong downtrend
Gray: Trendless/neutral
2. Line Display
Blue lines: Ultra-short term Stochastic (K1/D1)
Orange lines: Short term Stochastic (K2/D2)
Purple lines: Medium term Stochastic (K3/D3)
Yellow line: VWAP (normalized)
3. Horizontal Lines
Upper line (75): Sell zone
Center line (50): Neutral line
Lower line (25): Buy zone
🎯 Signal Types and Meanings
Scalping Signals (● marks)
Green ● (bottom): 📈 Scalp buy entry
RSI(7) < 25 + K1 < 30 combination
VWAP bounce targeting
Red ● (top): 📉 Scalp sell entry
RSI(7) > 75 + K1 > 70 combination
VWAP rejection targeting
Main Trend Signals
▲ (large, green): 💪 Strong buy signal - Multiple conditions aligned
▼ (large, red): 💪 Strong sell signal - Multiple conditions aligned
△ (medium, green): 📈 Normal buy signal
▽ (medium, orange): 📉 Normal sell signal
Warning/Reversal Signals
▼ (pink): ⚠️ Sell warning - Trend reversal caution
△ (teal): ⚠️ Buy warning - Trend reversal caution
Cross Signals (● marks, positioned up/down)
Green ● (bottom): Histogram crosses above VWAP
Red ● (top): Histogram crosses below VWAP
🚀 Practical Usage
Scalping Strategy (1-5 minute charts recommended)
Entry: Enter on green ● or red ● signals
Take Profit: At opposite zone or next ● signal
Stop Loss: Around 10-15 pips (for gold)
Time Session: London-NY overlap optimal
Swing Trading Strategy (15min-1hour charts)
Entry: Strong ▲▼ signals
Take Profit: Opposite warning signals (▼△)
Stop Loss: VWAP reverse break or 30-50 pips
Day Trading Strategy (5-15 minute charts)
Trend Confirmation: Histogram color
Entry: △▽ signals
Take Profit: Opposite zone reached
Stop Loss: 20-30 pips
⚡ XAU/USD Specific Usage
Session-Based Strategy
Tokyo Session (9-15 JST): Wait and see, small scalps
London Session (16-24 JST): Main trading
NY Session (22-6 JST): Most active, all signals valid
Major News Events
Pre-announcement: Reduce positions
Post-announcement: Trend following with ● signals
🔍 Filter Functions
ATR Filter
Small price movements filtered as noise
Signals only on significant price moves
Time Filter
Strong signals only during high volatility sessions
Weaker signals during low volatility periods
Consecutive Signal Prevention
Duplicate signals within 2 bars filtered out
Prevents noise trading
⚙️ Settings Customization
For Aggressive Trading
Signal Cooldown: 1 # More frequent signals
ATR Length: 5 # More sensitive filter
For Conservative Trading
Signal Cooldown: 5 # Relaxed signals
ATR Length: 20 # Stricter filter
Overbought: 80 # More extreme levels
Oversold: 20
📱 Recommended Alert Settings
Strong Buy/Sell Signal: Priority ★★★
Scalping Buy/Sell Signal: Priority ★★☆
Reverse Warning: Priority ★★★ (for position management)
⚠️ Important Notes
Scalping requires quick decision-making
Multiple timeframe confirmation recommended
Exercise caution during major news events
Risk management is top priority
This indicator is a versatile multi-functional tool suitable for short to medium-term trading strategies!
🎓 Trading Examples
Scalping Example
Wait for green ● at oversold level (below 30)
Enter long position immediately
Target: 50 level or red ● signal
Stop: Below recent swing low
Day Trading Example
Histogram turns green (bullish trend)
Wait for △ buy signal near support
Target: Overbought level (75)
Exit: Warning signal ▼ appears
Risk Management Rules
Never risk more than 2% per trade
Use proper position sizing
Set stops before entry
Take partial profits at key levels
This comprehensive guide will help you maximize the potential of this advanced multi-timeframe indicator!
PanelWithGrid v1.7PanelWithGrid v1.7 - Advanced Multi-Timeframe Grid and Panel Indicator
DESCRIPTION:
PanelWithGrid v1.7 is a comprehensive tool for traders who want to monitor multiple timeframes simultaneously while operating based on a customizable price grid. This indicator combines two essential functionalities in a single script:
🎯 MAIN FEATURES:
✅ CUSTOMIZABLE GRID SYSTEM
Configurable timeframe for the grid base (1M to Monthly)
Selection of the reference candlestick level (0 = current, 1 = previous, etc.)
NEW: Custom price as the grid base
Adjustable distance between lines in points
Colored lines (red = base, blue = above, gold = below)
Informative label with the base value
✅ COMPLETE MULTI-TIMEFRAME DASHBOARD
Monitoring of 11 timeframes: 1M, 5M, 15M, 30M, 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 6H, 12H, and 1D
Real-time data: open, close, difference, and candlestick type
Countdown to close Each candle
Intuitive colors (green for bullish, red for bearish)
✅ CONFLUENCE SYSTEM
Visual and audio alerts for bullish/bearish confluence on all timeframes
Special confluence analysis for 1H candles after 30 minutes of formation
Buy/sell arrows on the chart for clear signals
⚙️ MAIN SETTINGS:
Grid Settings:
Timeframe for Grid: Select the period for the baseline
Candle Level: 0 (current candle), 1 (last candle), etc.
Grid Distance: Distance between lines in points
NEW: Use Custom Price - Enables manual price as a base
Custom Close Price - Sets the manual value for the grid
🎨 VISUAL:
Grid with lines extended to the right
Panel positioned in the upper left corner
Colors organized for easy interpretation
Informative labels directly on the chart
🔔 ADVANCED FEATURES:
Alerts configured for confluences
Optimized for performance
Real-time updates
Compatible with all pairs and markets
PERFECT FOR:
Scalpers and day traders
Level-based trading
Multiple timeframe analysis
Reversal and breakout strategies
UPDATE v1.7:
Added custom price option for the grid
Improved line stability
Performance optimization
Bug fixes minors
INSTRUCTIONS FOR USE:
Apply the indicator to the chart
Set the desired timeframe and level for the grid
Adjust the distance between lines according to your strategy
Use the custom price if you want a specific basis
Monitor the dashboard to see the convergence between timeframes
Trade based on the identified confluences
FUMO MA Cross Matrix 9/21/50/100/200 FUMO MA Cross Matrix is a flexible and advanced indicator designed for traders who rely on moving average crossovers as part of their strategy.
🔹 Key Features:
Supports 5 types of Moving Averages: EMA, SMA, SMMA (RMA), WMA, HMA.
Includes 5 standard MAs: 9, 21, 50, 100, 200 (toggle on/off individually).
Choose which MA crosses to monitor (9×21, 21×50, 50×100, 100×200, and 6 extended combinations).
On-chart signals (labels) when crosses occur.
Alerts system for every selected cross and also summary alerts (“Any Cross Up/Down”).
Option to trigger signals only on confirmed bars (no repaint).
Fully adjustable label visibility and signal style.
🔹 Use Cases:
Detect trend shifts (short-term vs long-term).
Build scalping, swing, or position trading strategies.
Combine with price action or volume analysis for stronger setups.
Quickly react to Golden Cross and Death Cross events.
🔹 How to Use:
Select your preferred MA type (EMA, SMA, etc.).
Enable the MAs (9, 21, 50, 100, 200) you want to plot.
Choose which crossovers to track in the settings.
Enable/disable on-chart labels for better visualization.
Set up alerts:
“CROSS UP/DOWN X>Y” for specific pairs.
“ANY CROSS UP/DOWN” for aggregated signals.
📌 Example Alerts
MA Cross UP 9>21 on BTCUSDT 15m @ 65432
Any selected MA cross DOWN on AAPL 1D @ 195.2
RTH Levels: VWAP + PDH/PDL + ONH/ONL + IBAlgo Index — Levels Pro (ONH/ONL • PDH/PDL • VWAP±Bands • IB • Gaps)
Purpose. A session-aware, non-repainting levels tool for intraday decision-making. Designed for futures and indices, with clean visuals, alerts, and a one-click Minimal Mode for screenshot-ready charts.
What it plots
• PDH/PDL (RTH-only) – Prior Regular Trading Hours high/low, computed intraday and frozen at the RTH close (no 24h mix-ups, no repainting).
• ONH/ONL – Prior Overnight high/low, held throughout RTH.
• RTH VWAP with ±σ bands – Volume-weighted variance, reset each RTH.
• Initial Balance (IB) – First N minutes of RTH, plus 1.5× / 2.0× extensions after IB completes.
• Today’s RTH Open & Prior RTH Close – With gap detection and “gap filled” alert.
• Killzone shading – NY Open (09:30–10:30 ET) and Lunch (11:15–13:30 ET).
• Values panel (top-right) – Each level with live distance in points & ticks.
• Right-edge level tags – With anti-overlap (stagger + vertical jitter).
• Price-scale tags – Native trackprice markers that always “stick” to the axis.
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New in v6.4
• Minimal Mode: one click for a clean look (thinner lines, VWAP bands/IB extensions hidden, on-chart right-edge labels off; price-scale tags remain).
• Theme presets: Dark Hi-Contrast / Light Minimal / Futures Classic / Muted Dark.
• Anti-overlap controls: horizontal staggering, vertical jitter, and baseline offset to keep tags readable even when levels cluster.
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Quick start (2 minutes)
1. Add to chart → keep defaults.
2. Sessions (ET):
• RTH Session default: 09:30–16:00 (US equities cash hours).
• Overnight Session default: 18:00–09:29.
Adjust for your market if you use different “day” hours (e.g., many use 08:20–13:30 ET for COMEX Gold).
3. Theme & Minimal Mode: pick a Theme Preset; enable Minimal Mode for screenshots.
4. Visibility: toggle PD/ON/VWAP/IB/References/Panel to taste.
5. Right-edge labels: turn Show Right-Edge Labels on. If they crowd, tune:
• Anti-overlap: min separation (ticks)
• Horizontal offset per tag (bars)
• Vertical jitter per step (ticks)
• Right-edge baseline offset (bars)
6. Alerts: open Add alert → Condition: and pick the events you want.
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How levels are computed (no repainting)
• PDH/PDL: Intraday H/L are accumulated only while in RTH and saved at RTH close for “yesterday’s” values.
• ONH/ONL: Accumulated across the defined Overnight window and then held during RTH.
• RTH VWAP & ±σ: Volume-weighted mean and standard deviation, reset at the RTH open.
• IB: First N minutes of RTH (default 60). Extensions (1.5×/2.0×) appear after IB completes.
• Gaps: Today’s RTH open vs prior RTH close; “Gap Filled” triggers when price trades back to prior close.
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Practical playbooks (how to trade around the levels)
1) PDH/PDL interactions
• Rejection: Price taps PDH/PDL then closes back inside → mean-reversion toward VWAP/IB.
• Acceptance: Close/hold beyond PDH/PDL with momentum → continuation to next HTF/IB target.
• Alert: PD Touch/Break.
2) ONH/ONL “taken”
• Often one ON extreme is taken during RTH. ONH Taken / ONL Taken → check if it’s a clean break or sweep & reclaim.
• Sweep + reclaim near VWAP can fuel rotations through the ON range.
3) VWAP ±σ framework
• Balanced: First tag of ±1σ often reverts toward VWAP.
• Trend: Persistent trade beyond ±1σ + IB break → target ±2σ/±3σ.
• Alerts: VWAP Cross and VWAP Reject (cross then immediate fail back).
4) IB breaks
• After IB completes, a clean IB break commonly targets 1.5× and sometimes 2.0×.
• Quick return inside IB = possible fade back to the opposite IB edge/VWAP.
• Alerts: IB Break Up / Down.
5) Gaps
• Gap-and-go: Opening drive away from prior close + VWAP support → trend until IB completion.
• Gap-fill: Weak open and VWAP overhead/underfoot → trade toward prior close; manage on Gap Filled alert.
Pro tip: Stack confluences (e.g., ONL sweep + VWAP reclaim + IB hold) and respect your execution rules (e.g., require a 5-minute close in direction, or your order-flow confirmation).
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Inputs you’ll actually touch
• Sessions (ET): Session Timezone, RTH Session, Overnight Session.
• Visibility: toggles for PD/ON/VWAP/IB/Ref/Panel.
• VWAP bands: set σ multipliers (±1/±2/±3).
• IB: duration (minutes) and extension multipliers (1.5× / 2.0×).
• Style & Theme: Theme Preset, Main Line Width, Trackprice, Minimal Mode, and anti-overlap controls.
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Alerts included
• PD Touch/Break — High ≥ PDH or Low ≤ PDL
• ONH Taken / ONL Taken — First in-RTH take of ONH/ONL
• VWAP Cross — Close crosses VWAP
• VWAP Reject — Cross then immediate fail back
• IB Break Up / Down — Break of IB High/Low after IB completes
• Gap Filled — Price trades back to prior RTH close
Setup: Add alert → Condition: Algo Index — Levels Pro → choose event → message → Notify on app/email.
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Panel guide
The top-right panel shows each level plus live distance from last price:
LevelValue (Δpoints | Δticks)
Coloring: green if level is below current price, red if above.
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Styling & screenshot tips
• Use Theme Preset that matches your chart.
• For dark charts, “Dark Hi-Contrast” with Main Line Width = 3 works well.
• Enable Trackprice for crisp axis tags that always stick to the right edge.
• Turn on Minimal Mode for cleaner screenshots (no VWAP bands or IB extensions, on-chart tags off; price-scale tags remain).
• If tags crowd, increase min separation (ticks) to 30–60 and horizontal offset to 3–5; add vertical jitter (4–12 ticks) and/or push tags farther right with baseline offset (bars).
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Behavior & limitations
• Levels are computed incrementally; tables refresh on the last bar for efficiency.
• Right-edge labels are placed at bar_index + offset and do not track extra right-margin scrolling (TradingView limitation). The price-scale tags (from trackprice) do track the axis.
• “RTH” is what you define in inputs. If your market uses different day hours, change the session strings so PDH/PDL reflect your definition of “yesterday’s session.”
⸻
FAQ
Q: My PDH/PDL don’t match the daily chart.
A: By design this uses RTH-only highs/lows, not 24h daily bars. Adjust sessions if you want a different definition.
Q: Right-edge tags overlap or don’t sit at the far right.
A: Increase min separation / horizontal offset / vertical jitter and/or push tags farther with baseline offset. If you want markers that always hug the axis, rely on Trackprice.
Q: Can I change killzones?
A: Yes—edit the session strings in settings or request a version with user inputs for custom windows.
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Disclaimer
Educational use only. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management and confirmation rules.
⸻
Enjoy it? Please ⭐ the script and share screenshots using Minimal Mode + a Theme Preset that fits your style.
Pure Price Zone Flow🔎 What this indicator is
It’s a price-action-based zone indicator. Unlike moving average systems, this one relies only on:
1. Swing Highs & Swing Lows → The highest and lowest points within a recent lookback period (like "mini support & resistance").
2. ATR (Average True Range) → A volatility measure that expands the zone, making it more adaptive to different market conditions.
3. Breakouts & Retests → When price breaks above a swing high (bullish) or below a swing low (bearish), the indicator marks it and highlights the new trend.
👉 The goal is to spot clean structure shifts and define clear trend zones where traders can position themselves.
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⚙️ How it is calculated
1. Swing High & Swing Low
o We look back len candles (default 20).
o Find the highest high (swingHigh) and the lowest low (swingLow) in that window.
o This forms the price range zone.
2. ATR Expansion
o We calculate ATR over the same len.
o Add/subtract it (multiplied by atrMult) to the zone edges to expand them.
o This ensures the zones breathe with volatility (tight in quiet markets, wide in choppy ones).
3. Mid-Zone
o Simply the average of swingHigh and swingLow.
o If price is above mid → bullish bias.
o If below mid → bearish bias.
o This gives us the trend color for candles.
4. Breakouts
o If the close crosses above swingHigh, we mark a bullish breakout with a label.
o If the close crosses below swingLow, we mark a bearish breakdown.
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📊 How it helps traders
This indicator helps by:
1. Identifying Structure Shifts
o Many traders watch swing highs/lows for breakouts or reversals.
o This automates the process and visually confirms when structure is broken.
2. Dynamic Zone Trading
o Instead of fixed support/resistance, the ATR expansion adapts to volatility.
o This avoids false signals in high-volatility conditions.
3. Trend Bias at a Glance
o Candle coloring instantly tells you whether price is in bullish or bearish territory relative to the mid-zone.
4. Breakout Confirmation
o The labels show when a breakout has occurred, so traders can react quickly (e.g., enter with trend, wait for retest, or avoid fading moves).
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🌍 Markets it works best in
• Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.): Very effective since crypto is breakout-driven and respects swing levels.
• Forex: Good for volatility-adaptive structure analysis, especially in trending pairs.
• Indices (SPX, NASDAQ, DAX, NIFTY): Useful for breakout trading during session opens or key news events.
• Commodities (Gold, Oil, Silver): Works well to define intraday ranges and breakout levels.
⚠️ Less useful in low-volatility, mean-reverting assets (like some penny stocks or sideways ranges), because breakouts may be rare or fake.
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💡 How it adds value
• Strips away unnecessary complexity (no lagging averages).
• Focuses directly on what price is doing structurally.
• Adaptive → works across different markets & timeframes.
• Easy visualization → zones, trend coloring, breakout markers.
• Helps traders trade with the flow of the market, instead of guessing tops/bottoms.
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👉 In short:
This indicator turns raw price action into clear, actionable zones.
It highlights when the market shifts from balance to breakout, so traders can align with momentum rather than fighting it.
Dual Custom Index with SpreadDual Custom Index with Spread
Create powerful custom indices from any instruments and analyze their relative strength dynamics
Overview
This advanced indicator allows you to build two completely customizable indices from your choice of instruments and analyze their spread relationship. Perfect for inter-market analysis, sector rotation strategies, currency strength comparisons, and sophisticated relative performance studies.
Key Features
🔧 Fully Customizable Index Construction
Build each index from up to 6 instruments with individual weightings
Enable/disable instruments on the fly without losing settings
Automatic weight validation ensures mathematically accurate calculations
Invert functionality for instruments that move opposite to index strength
📊 Advanced ADX-Based Methodology
Uses sophisticated ADX +DI/-DI directional bias calculations
Normalized bias calculation for consistent scaling across different instruments
Optimized default settings for intraday trading with full customization options
Professional-grade smoothing and filtering options
📈 Dual Analysis Modes
Difference Mode: Shows absolute strength difference (Index1 - Index2)
Ratio Mode: Shows relative performance ratio (Index1 / Index2)
Additional spread smoothing for cleaner signals
🎨 Professional Display Options
Custom labels with full color, size, and positioning control
Dynamic "Follow Line" labels that move with your data
Static corner positioning for reference displays
Clean error messaging and validation feedback
Use Cases
Gold Trading: Create gold strength vs USD strength indices for precise market timing
Sector Analysis: Compare technology vs financial sector strength for rotation strategies
Currency Strength: Build custom currency baskets for advanced forex analysis
Commodity Spreads: Analyze relative strength between different commodity groups
Regional Markets: Compare strength between different geographical market indices
Crypto Analysis: Track relative performance between different cryptocurrency sectors
Technical Specifications
Instruments per Index: Up to 6 with individual enable/disable
Weight Validation: Automatic 100% total weight enforcement
Calculation Method: ADX-based directional bias with trend strength weighting
Smoothing Options: Multiple levels of customizable smoothing
Error Handling: Professional validation with clear user feedback
Optimization Tips
Intraday Trading: Use DI Length 3-7 for faster response
Daily Analysis: Use DI Length 10-14 for smoother signals
Noisy Markets: Increase Final Smoothing for cleaner signals
Trending Markets: Lower smoothing values for faster reaction
Perfect for traders who need sophisticated inter-market analysis tools beyond standard indicators. Whether you're analyzing gold vs dollar dynamics, sector rotation opportunities, or custom currency strength relationships, this indicator provides institutional-grade analysis capabilities with complete customization flexibility.
Multi SMA by GreenDecodeThis indicator, created by GreenDecode, plots eight Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) with customizable lengths and resolutions. Each SMA can be toggled on or off, and the colors are distinctly set for easy identification: SMA1 (yellow), SMA2 (cyan), SMA3 (green), SMA4 (red), SMA5 (blue), SMA6 (lightblue), SMA7 (teal), and SMA8 (gold). The SMAs are calculated to avoid repainting by using the 'lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off' parameter, ensuring historical accuracy. Ideal for technical analysis to identify trends and potential reversal points on various timeframes.
Currency Strength v3.0Currency Strength v3.0
Summary
The Currency Strength indicator is a powerful tool designed to gauge the relative strength of major and emerging market currencies. By plotting the True Strength Index (TSI) of various currency indices, it provides a clear visual representation of which currencies are gaining momentum and which are losing it. This indicator automatically detects the currency pair on your chart and highlights the corresponding strength lines, simplifying analysis and helping you quickly identify potential trading opportunities based on currency dynamics.
Key Features
Comprehensive Currency Analysis: Tracks the strength of 19 currencies, including major pairs and several emerging market currencies.
Automatic Pair Detection: Intelligently identifies the base and quote currency of the active chart, automatically highlighting the relevant strength lines.
Dynamic Coloring: The base currency is consistently colored blue, and the quote currency is colored gold, making it easy to distinguish between the two at a glance.
Non-Repainting TSI Calculation: Uses the True Strength Index (TSI) for smooth and reliable momentum readings that do not repaint.
Customizable Settings: Allows for adjustment of the fast and slow periods for the TSI calculation to fit your specific trading style.
Clean Interface: Features a minimalist legend table that only displays the currencies relevant to your current chart, keeping your workspace uncluttered.
How It Works
The indicator pulls data from major currency indices (like DXY for the US Dollar and EXY for the Euro). For currencies that don't have a dedicated index, it uses their USD pair (e.g., USDCNY) and inverts the calculation to derive the currency's strength relative to the dollar. It then applies the True Strength Index (TSI) to this data. The TSI is a momentum oscillator that is less volatile than other oscillators, providing a more reliable measure of strength. The resulting values are plotted on the chart, allowing you to see how different currencies are performing against each other in real-time.
How to Use
Trend Confirmation: When the base currency's line is rising and above the zero line, and the quote currency's line is falling, it can confirm a bullish trend for the pair. The opposite would suggest a bearish trend.
Identifying Divergences: Look for divergences between the currency strength lines and the price action of the pair. For example, if the price is making higher highs but the base currency's strength is making lower highs, it could signal a potential reversal.
Crossovers: A crossover of the base and quote currency lines can signal a shift in momentum. A bullish signal occurs when the base currency line crosses above the quote currency line. A bearish signal occurs when it crosses below.
Overbought/Oversold Levels: The horizontal dashed lines at 0.5 and -0.5 can be used as general guides for overbought and oversold conditions, respectively. Strength moving beyond these levels may indicate an unsustainable move that is due for a correction.
Settings
Fast Period: The short-term period for the TSI calculation. Default is 7.
Slow Period: The long-term period for the TSI calculation. Default is 15.
Index Source: The price source used for the calculations (e.g., Close, Open). Default is Close.
Base Currency Color: The color for the base currency line. Default is Royal Blue.
Quote Currency Color: The color for the quote currency line. Default is Goldenrod.
Disclaimer
This indicator is intended for educational and analytical purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and risk management before making any trading decisions.
Aethix Cipher DivergencesAethix Cipher Divergences v6
Core Hook: Custom indicator inspired by VuManChu B, Grok-enhanced for crypto intel—blends WaveTrend (WT) oscillator with multi-divergences for buy/sell circles (green/teal buys #00FFFF, red sells) and dots (divs, gold overbought alerts).
Key Features:
WaveTrend Waves: Dual waves (teal WT1, darker teal WT2) with VWAP (purple for neon vibe), overbought/oversold lines, crosses for signals.
Divergences: Regular/hidden for WT, RSI, Stoch—red bearish, green bullish dots; extra range for deeper insights.
RSI + MFI Area: Colored area (green positive, red negative) for sentiment/volume flow.
Stochastic RSI: K/D lines with fill for overbought/oversold trends.
Schaff Trend Cycle: Purple line for cycle smoothing.
Sommi Patterns: Flags (pink bearish, blue bullish) and diamonds for HTF patterns, purple higher VWAP.
MACD Colors on WT: Dynamic WT shading based on MACD for enhanced reads.
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Gann Box LogicGann Box Logic
Overview
The Gann Box Logic indicator is a precision-based trading tool that combines the principles of Gann analysis with retracement logic to highlight high-probability zones of price action. It plots a structured box on the chart based on the previous day's high and low, overlays Fibonacci-derived retracement levels, and visually marks a critical “neutral zone” between 38.2% and 61.8% retracements.
This zone — shaded for emphasis — is a decision filter for traders:
- It warns against initiating trades in this area (low conviction zone).
- It identifies reversal pull targets when extremes are reached.
Core Principles Behind Gann Box Logic
Logic 1 — The Neutral Zone (38.2% ↔ 61.8%)
- The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are key Fibonacci ratios often associated with consolidation or indecision.
- Price action between these two levels is considered a neutral, low-conviction zone.
- Trading Recommendation:
- Avoid initiating new trades while price remains within this shaded band.
- This zone tends to produce whipsaws and false signals.
- Wait for a decisive break above 61.8% or below 38.2% for clearer momentum.
- Why it matters:
- In Gann’s market structure thinking, the middle range of a swing is often a battleground where neither bulls nor bears are in full control.
- This is the zone where market makers often shake out weak hands before committing to a direction.
Logic 2 — Extremes Seek Balance (0% & 100% Reversal Bias)
- The indicator’s 0% and 100% levels represent the previous day’s low and high respectively.
- First Touch Rule:
- When the price touches 0% (previous low) or 100% (previous high) for the first time in the current session, there is a high probability it will attempt to revert toward the center zone (38.2% ↔ 61.8%).
- Trading Implication:
- If price spikes to an extreme, be alert for reversion trades toward the mid-zone rather than expecting a sustained breakout.
- Momentum traders may still pursue breakout trades, but this bias warns of potential pullbacks.
- Why it works:
- Extreme levels often trigger profit-taking by early entrants and counter-trend entries by mean-reversion traders.
- These forces naturally pull the market back toward equilibrium — often near the 50% level or within the shaded zone.
How the Indicator is Plotted
1. Previous Day High/Low Reference — The script locks onto the prior day’s range to establish the vertical bounds of the box.
2. Retracement Levels — Key Fibonacci levels plotted: 0%, 25%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 75%, 100%.
3. Box Structure — Outer Border marks the full prior day range, Mid Fill Zone is shaded between 38.2% and 61.8%.
4. VWAP (Optional) — Daily VWAP overlay for intraday bias confirmation.
Practical Usage Guide
- Avoid Trades in Neutral Zone — Stay out of the shaded area unless you’re already in a trade from outside this zone.
- Watch for First Touch Extremes — First touch at 0% or 100% → anticipate a pullback toward the shaded zone.
- Breakout Confirmation — Only commit to breakout trades when price leaves the 38.2–61.8% zone with strong volume and momentum.
- VWAP Confluence — VWAP crossing through the shaded zone often signals a balance day — breakout expectations should be tempered.
Strengths of Gann Box Logic
- Removes noise trades during low-conviction periods.
- Encourages patience and discipline.
- Highlights key market turning points.
- Provides clear visual structure for both new and advanced traders.
Limitations & Warnings
- Not a standalone entry system — best used in conjunction with price action and volume analysis.
- Extreme moves can sometimes trend without reversion, especially during news-driven sessions.
- Works best on intraday timeframes when referencing the previous day’s range.
In Summary
The Gann Box Logic indicator’s philosophy can be boiled down to two golden rules:
1. Do nothing in the middle — Avoid trades between 38.2% and 61.8%.
2. Expect balance from extremes — First touches at 0% or 100% often pull back toward the shaded mid-zone.
This dual approach makes the indicator both a trade filter and a targeting guide, allowing traders to navigate markets with a structured, Gann-inspired framework.
DISCLAIMER
The information provided by this indicator is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading carries risk, including possible loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making trading decisions.
Contracts Calculator by NQLOGIEST🧮 Contracts Calculator by NQLOGIEST
This tool helps futures traders quickly calculate how many micro contracts to trade based on their dollar risk and stop size. It supports the following micro instruments:
MNQ – Micro Nasdaq 100
MES – Micro S&P 500
MCL – Micro Crude Oil Futures
MGC – Micro Gold Futures
🔧 Features:
Dynamic Contract Calculation based on:
Selected instrument
Dollar risk amount
Stop size (in points)
Instrument-aware $/point logic:
MNQ: $2/pt
MES: $5/pt
MCL: $1/pt
MGC: $1/pt
Customizable Table Position: Pin the results table to any corner of your chart.
Clean and lightweight — no chart clutter.
📋 How to Use:
Select the instrument you're trading from the dropdown (NQ, ES, CL, or GC).
Set your risk amount in dollars.
Set your stop loss size in points.
The indicator will calculate how many micro contracts you can trade while staying within your risk tolerance.
XAUUSD Strength Dashboard with VolumeXAUUSD Strength Dashboard with Volume Analysis
📌 Description
This advanced Pine Script indicator provides a multi-timeframe dashboard for XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD), combining price action analysis with volume confirmation to generate high-probability trading signals. It detects:
✅ Break of Structure (BOS)
✅ Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
✅ Change of Character (CHOCH)
✅ Trendline Breaks (9/21 SMA Crossover)
✅ Volume Spikes (Confirmation of Strength)
The dashboard displays strength scores (0-100%) and action recommendations (Strong Buy/Buy/Neutral/Sell/Strong Sell) across multiple timeframes, helping traders identify confluences for better trade decisions.
🎯 How It Works
1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Fetches data from 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, Daily, and Weekly timeframes.
Compares trend direction, BOS, FVG, CHOCH, and volume spikes across all timeframes.
2. Volume-Confirmed Strength Score
The Strength Score (0-100%) is calculated using:
Trend Direction (25 points) → 9 SMA vs. 21 SMA
Break of Structure (20 points) → New highs/lows with momentum
Fair Value Gaps (10 points) → Imbalance zones
Change of Character (10 points) → Shift in market structure
Trendline Break (20 points) → SMA crossover confirmation
Volume Spike (15 points) → High volume confirms moves
Score Interpretation:
≥75% → Strong Buy (High confidence bullish move)
60-74% → Buy (Bullish but weaker confirmation)
40-59% → Neutral (No strong bias)
25-39% → Sell (Bearish but weaker confirmation)
≤25% → Strong Sell (High confidence bearish move)
3. Dashboard & Chart Markers
Dashboard Table: Shows Trend, BOS, Volume, CHOCH, TL Break, Strength %, Key Level, and Action for each timeframe.
Chart Markers:
🟢 Green Triangles → Bullish BOS
🔴 Red Triangles → Bearish BOS
🟢 Green Circles → Bullish CHOCH
🔴 Red Circles → Bearish CHOCH
📈 Green Arrows → Bullish Trendline Break
📉 Red Arrows → Bearish Trendline Break
"Vol↑" (Lime) → Bullish Volume Spike
"Vol↓" (Maroon) → Bearish Volume Spike
🚀 How to Use
1. Dashboard Interpretation
Higher Timeframes (D/W) → Show the dominant trend.
Lower Timeframes (1m-4h) → Help with entry timing.
Strength Score ≥75% or ≤25% → Look for high-confidence trades.
Volume Spikes → Confirm breakouts/reversals.
2. Trading Strategy
📈 Long (Buy) Setup:
Higher TFs (D/W/4h) show bullish trend (↑).
Current TF has BOS & Volume Spike.
Strength Score ≥60%.
Key Level (Low) holds as support.
📉 Short (Sell) Setup:
Higher TFs (D/W/4h) show bearish trend (↓).
Current TF has BOS & Volume Spike.
Strength Score ≤40%.
Key Level (High) holds as resistance.
3. Customization
Adjust Volume Spike Multiplier (Default: 1.5x) → Controls sensitivity to volume spikes.
Toggle Timeframes → Enable/disable higher/lower timeframes.
🔑 Key Benefits
✔ Multi-Timeframe Confluence → Avoids false signals.
✔ Volume Confirmation → Filters low-quality breakouts.
✔ Clear Strength Scoring → Removes emotional bias.
✔ Visual Chart Markers → Easy to spot key signals.
This indicator is ideal for gold traders who follow institutional order flow, market structure, and volume analysis to improve their trading decisions.
🎯 Best Used With:
Support/Resistance Levels
Fibonacci Retracements
Price Action Confirmation
🚀 Happy Trading! 🚀
US Macro Cycle (Z-Score Model)US Macro Cycle (Z-Score Model)
This indicator tracks the US economic cycle in real time using a weighted composite of seven macro and market-based indicators, each converted into a rolling Z-score for comparability. The model identifies the current phase of the cycle — Expansion, Peak, Contraction, or Recovery — and suggests sector tilts based on historical performance in each phase.
Core Components:
Yield Curve (10y–2y): Positive & steepening = growth; inverted = slowdown risk.
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD): Tightening = risk-on; widening = risk-off.
Sector Leadership (Cyclicals vs. Defensives): Measures market leadership regime.
Copper/Gold Ratio: Higher copper = growth signal; higher gold = defensive.
SPY vs. 200-day MA: Equity trend strength.
SPY/IEF Ratio: Stocks vs. bonds relative strength.
VIX (Inverted): Low/falling volatility = supportive; high/rising = risk-off.
Methodology:
Each series is transformed into a rolling Z-score over the selected lookback period (optionally using median/MAD for robustness and winsorization to clip outliers).
Z-scores are combined using user-defined weights and normalized.
The smoothed composite is compared against phase thresholds to classify the macro environment.
Features:
Customizable Weights: Emphasize the indicators most relevant to your strategy.
Adjustable Thresholds: Fine-tune cycle phase definitions.
Background Coloring: Visual cue for the current phase.
Summary Table: Displays composite Z, confidence %, and individual Z-scores.
Alerts: Trigger when the phase changes, with details on the composite score and recommended tilt.
Use Cases:
Align sector rotation or relative strength strategies with the macro backdrop.
Identify favorable or defensive phases for tactical allocation.
Monitor macro turning points to manage portfolio risk.
It's doesn't fill nan gaps so there is quite a bit of zeroes, non-repainting.
25 Day and 125 Day EMA Trend IndicatorThe "25 and 125 EMA Trend indicator," is a powerful yet simple tool designed for use on any TradingView chart. Its primary purpose is to help traders visually identify both short-term and long-term trends in the market.
How the Script Works
The script is built around two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are a type of moving average that gives more weight to recent price data. This makes them more responsive to current market changes than a Simple Moving Average (SMA). The two EMAs are:
Fast EMA (25-day): Represented by the blue line, this EMA reacts quickly to price fluctuations. It's excellent for identifying the current short-term direction and momentum of the asset.
Slow EMA (125-day): Represented by the purple line, this EMA smooths out price action over a much longer period. It's used to determine the underlying, long-term trend of the market.
Trading Signals and Interpretation
The real value of this script comes from observing the relationship between the two EMA lines.
Uptrend: When the blue (25-day) EMA is above the purple (125-day) EMA, it indicates that the short-term trend is stronger than the long-term trend, signaling a bullish or upward-moving market.
Downtrend: Conversely, when the blue EMA is below the purple EMA, it suggests that the short-term trend is weaker, indicating a bearish or downward-moving market.
Cross-overs: The most important signals are often generated when the two lines cross.
A bullish cross (or "golden cross") occurs when the blue EMA crosses above the purple EMA. This can be a signal that a new, strong uptrend is beginning.
A bearish cross (or "death cross") occurs when the blue EMA crosses below the purple EMA. This may signal the start of a new downtrend.
Customisation
The script includes user-friendly input fields that allow you to customise the lengths of both EMAs directly from the indicator's settings on the chart. This lets you experiment with different time frames and tailor the indicator to your specific trading strategy.
LANZ Strategy 6.0🔷 LANZ Strategy 6.0 — NY Session Entry Tool & Multi-Account Risk Manager
LANZ Strategy 6.0 - Is a trading tool designed to help traders plan, execute, and manage operations with a focus on risk management, multi-account handling, and visual clarity.
It works exclusively on the 1-hour timeframe ⏳ and is optimized for the New York market opening dynamics.
🧠 Core Concept
The strategy identifies bullish trading opportunities based on the 09:00 NY candle. Once detected, it automatically calculates and draws:
EP (Entry Price) — The exact level where the trade setup triggers.
SL (Stop Loss) — Based on a customizable percentage of the candle's high–low range or wick extremes.
TP (Take Profit) — Calculated using your chosen Risk–Reward Ratio (e.g., 1:5, 1:3, etc.).
⚙️ Main Features
⏳ Time-Specific Execution
Operates only when the 09:00 NY candle closes bullish.
Ideal for traders who align with the New York Session market structure.
💰 Multi-Account Lot Size Management
Up to 5 independent accounts can be configured with their own capital and risk %, showing the exact lot size to use for each.
📏 Adaptive Risk Control
Supports both Forex and non-Forex assets (indices, gold, oil).
For non-Forex, you can manually define the pip value according to your broker’s specs.
🎨 Visual Trade Map
Automatically plots clean and easy-to-read EP, SL, and TP lines with customizable colors, styles, and thickness.
A floating information panel displays levels, pip distances, and lot sizes.
🔔 Real-Time Alerts
Alerts for:
Entry signal detection.
Stop Loss hit.
Take Profit hit.
Manual close at the defined session end.
📊 Example
If you trade GBPUSD with Account #1 set to $10,000 and 2% risk,
and the 09:00 NY candle closes bullish with SL = 30 pips and RR = 5:1:
EP, SL, and TP levels are drawn instantly.
Risk = $200 (2% of $10,000).
Lot size is calculated automatically.
All details are shown in the on-chart panel.
🛠️ How to Use
Load the indicator on a 1-hour chart.
Configure risk settings and account data.
Wait for the 09:00 NY candle to close bullish.
Use the displayed lot size and levels to execute your trade.
Let the tool alert you for SL, TP, or manual close.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This script is for educational purposes only. It does not guarantee profits and past performance does not represent future results. Always manage your risk responsibly.
👨💻 Credits:
💡 Developed by: LANZ
🧠 Execution Model & Logic Design: LANZ
📅 Designed for: 1H timeframe and NY-based entries
Multi-Pip Grid This indicator draws multiple sets of horizontal grid lines on your chart at user-defined pip intervals. It’s designed for traders who want to quickly visualize key price levels spaced evenly apart in pips, with full control over pip size, grid spacing, and appearance.
Features:
Adjustable pip size — works for Forex, gold, crypto, and indices (e.g., 0.0001 for EURUSD, 0.10 for XAUUSD, 1 for NAS100).
Six grid spacings — 1000 pips, 500 pips, 250 pips, 125 pips, 62.5 pips, and 31.25 pips. Each grid can be toggled on or off.
Customizable base price — center the grid at the current market price or any manually entered price.
Optional snap-to-grid — automatically aligns the base price to the nearest multiple of the smallest step for perfect alignment.
Flexible range — choose how many grid lines are drawn above and below the base price.
Distinct colors per grid level for easy identification.
Automatic cleanup — removes old lines before redrawing to avoid clutter.
Use cases:
Identify large and small pip-based support/resistance zones.
Plan entries/exits using fixed pip distances.
Visualize scaled take-profit and stop-loss zones.
Overlay multiple timeframes with consistent pip spacing.
Multi-Pip Grid (Adjustable) — FixedThis indicator draws multiple sets of horizontal grid lines on your chart at user-defined pip intervals. It’s designed for traders who want to quickly visualize key price levels spaced evenly apart in pips, with full control over pip size, grid spacing, and appearance.
Features:
Adjustable pip size — works for Forex, gold, crypto, and indices (e.g., 0.0001 for EURUSD, 0.10 for XAUUSD, 1 for NAS100).
Six grid spacings — 1000 pips, 500 pips, 250 pips, 125 pips, 62.5 pips, and 31.25 pips. Each grid can be toggled on or off.
Customizable base price — center the grid at the current market price or any manually entered price.
Optional snap-to-grid — automatically aligns the base price to the nearest multiple of the smallest step for perfect alignment.
Flexible range — choose how many grid lines are drawn above and below the base price.
Distinct colors per grid level for easy identification.
Automatic cleanup — removes old lines before redrawing to avoid clutter.
Use cases:
Identify large and small pip-based support/resistance zones.
Plan entries/exits using fixed pip distances.
Visualize scaled take-profit and stop-loss zones.
Overlay multiple timeframes with consistent pip spacing.
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
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Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
XAUUSD 1H – FVG Buy/Sell Signals XAUUSD 1H – Fair Value Gap (FVG) Buy/Sell Signals (No Boxes)
What it is:
A clean, signal-only indicator for Gold on the 1-hour chart. It detects 3-bar Fair Value Gaps, waits for a deep retest, then confirms with strong candle structure + trend + ADX before printing a BUY/SELL arrow. No rectangles or clutter—just selective, high-quality signals.
Why it works:
Instead of chasing breakouts, the script hunts for imbalances (FVGs) where price often returns to “fair value.” It only fires when:
price revisits the gap by a configurable depth,
the candle closes beyond the far edge with a small buffer,
the candle body is ≥ ATR × K (confirms intent),
the broader trend (EMA-50/EMA-200) agrees, and
ADX (Wilder, manual) shows sufficient strength.
Key features
✅ Signal-only: arrows/labels—no boxes on chart.
✅ Deep retest logic (percentage of zone), not just a touch.
✅ Strong close filter (edge + buffer) + ATR body filter.
✅ Trend filter (EMA-50 vs EMA-200) to keep trades with the regime.
✅ ADX strength to avoid chop.
✅ One signal per zone (optional “delete on use”).
✅ Alerts for both BUY and SELL.
✅ Built for Pine v6, non-repainting logic on bar close.
Inputs you can tune
Min FVG size (pts) – ignore tiny gaps.
Retest depth (%) – how deep price must come back into the gap.
Close buffer (pts) – extra confirmation beyond zone edge.
Min body ≥ ATR× – candle strength requirement.
Min ADX – trend strength threshold.
Expire after X bars – keep zones fresh.
Delete zone after signal – true = one-shot signals.
How I use it
Apply to XAUUSD 1H.
Keep default filters for selective signals.
For more setups, lower Min FVG size or ADX and reduce retest depth; for stricter signals, do the opposite.
Combine with S/R or session timing (London/NY) for added confluence.
Notes
Signals are generated on bar close.
Designed for clarity and discipline—fewer, cleaner arrows over constant noise.
Works on other symbols/timeframes, but tuned for Gold 1H.
Tags: #XAUUSD #Gold #FVG #SmartMoney #1H #TrendFollowing #ADX #ATR #PineV6 #TradingView
