IU Break of any session StrategyHow this script works:
1. This script is an intraday trading strategy script which buy and sell on the bases of user-defined intraday session range breakout and gives alert(if the alert is set) message too when the new position is open.
2. It calculate the session as per the user inputs or user defined custom session.
3. The script stores the highest and lowest value of the whole session.
4. It take a long position on the first break and close above the highest value.
5. It take a short position on the break and close below the lowest value.
6. The script takes one position in one day.
7. The stop loss for this script is the previous low(if long) or high(if short).
8. Take profit is 1:2 and it's adjustable.
9. This script work on every kind of market.
How The Useful For The User :
1. User can backtest any session range breakout he wants to trade.
2. User can get alert when the new position is open.
3. User can change the Risk to Reward in order to find the best Risk to Reward.
4. User can see the highest and lowest value of the session with respect to analyzing his trading objective.
5. This strategy script highlights which session range breakout performs best and which performs worst.
Cerca negli script per "TAKE"
IU Probability CalculatorHow This Script Works:
1. This script calculate the probability of price reaching a user-defined price level within one candle with the help Normal Distribution Probability Table.
2. Normal Distribution Probability Table is use for calculating probability of events, it's very powerful for calculation of probability and this script is fully based on that table.
3. It takes the Average True Range value or Standard Deviation value of past user-defined length bar.
4. After that it take this formula z = ( price_level - close ) / (ATR or Standard Deviation) and return the value for z, for the bearish side it take z = (close - price level) / (ATR or Standard Deviation ) formula.
5. Once we have the z it look into Normal Distribution Probability Table and match the value.
6. Now the value of z is multiple buy 100 in order to make it look in percentage term.
7. After that this script subtract the final value with 100 because probability always comes under 100%
8. finally we plot the probability at the bottom of the chart the red line indicates "The probability of price not reaching that price level", While the green line indicates "Probability of price Reaching that level " .
9. This script will work fine for both of the directions
How This Is Useful For The User:
1. With this script user can know the probability of price reaching the certain level within one candle for both Directions .
2. This is useful while creating options hedging strategies
3. This can be helpful for deciding stop loss level.
4. It's useful for scalpers for managing their traders and it can be use by binary option traders.
IU Average move How The Script Works :
1. This script calculate the average movement of the price in a user defined custom session and plot the data in a table from on top left corner of the chart.
2. The script takes highest and lowest value of that custom session and store their difference into an array.
3. Then the script average the array thus gets the average price.
4. Addition to that the script converter the price pip change into percentage in order to calculate the value in percentage form.
5. This script is pure price action based the script only take price value and doesn't take any indicator for calculation.
6. The script works on every type of market.
7. If the session is invalid it returns nothing
8. The background color, text color and transparency is changeable.
How User Can Benefit From This Script:
1. User can understand the volatility of any session that he/she wish to trade.
2. It can be helpful for understanding the average price moment of any tradeble asset.
3. It will give the average price movement both in percentage and points bases.
4. By understanding the volatility user can adjust his stop loss or take profit with respect his risk management.
VWAP with CharacterizationThis indicator is a visual representation of the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), it calculates the weighted average price based on trading volume. Essentially, it provides a measure of the average price at which an asset has traded during a given period, but with a particular focus on trading volume. In our case, the indicator calculates the VWAP for the current trading symbol, using a predefined simple moving average (SMA) with a period of 14. This volume-weighted moving average offers a clearer view of the behavior of the VWAP and, of consequence of market dynamics.
One of the distinctive features of this indicator is its ability to provide a more "linear" representation of the data. This means that the data is "smoothed" to remove noise, allowing you to more easily identify the direction of the market trend. This smoother representation is especially useful because the financial market can be subject to significant fluctuations and volatility, and this indicator can help get a more stable view of the trend.
The indicator also offers a visualization of the market trend in a very intuitive way. Using an evaluation of the highs and lows of the last 10 days, determine whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or no trend at all. To make this evaluation even clearer and more immediate, the indicator line is colored dynamically. When the trend is bullish, the line is blue, while in case of a bearish trend, it takes on a distinctive color, such as pink. If the trend is not defined, the line will be colored differently, for example light yellow. This coloration gives traders an immediate visual indication of the prevailing trend, allowing them to make more informed decisions regarding trading operations.
One potential strategy involves watching candles when they cross the VWAP line strongly. If, for example, a candlestick breaks above the VWAP line, we may look for retest areas near key support levels to gauge a potential long entry. In other words, we would consider that the price may have the potential to rise further after breaking above the VWAP line, and we would look to enter a long position to take advantage of this opportunity.
On the other hand, if a candlestick crosses below the VWAP line, we might consider looking for retest areas near the VWAP line itself, which now serves as potential resistance. This could indicate a possible short entry opportunity, as the price may struggle to break above the resistance represented by the VWAP line after breaking it down. In this case, we would look to take advantage of the expected continuation of the downtrend.
In both cases, the idea is to exploit significant movements across the VWAP line as signals of potential reversal or continuation of the trend. This strategy can help identify key entry points based on price behavior relative to the VWAP line.
Tri-State SupertrendTri-State Supertrend: Buy, Sell, Range
( Credits: Based on "Pivot Point Supertrend" by LonesomeTheBlue.)
Tri-State Supertrend incorporates a range filter into a supertrend algorithm.
So in addition to the Buy and Sell states, we now also have a Range state.
This avoids the typical "whipsaw" problem: During a range, a standard supertrend algorithm will fire Buy and Sell signals in rapid succession. These signals are all false signals as they lead to losing positions when acted on.
In this case, a tri-state supertrend will go into Range mode and stay in this mode until price exits the range and a new trend begins.
I used Pivot Point Supertrend by LonesomeTheBlue as a starting point for this script because I believe LonesomeTheBlue's version is superior to the classic Supertrend algorithm.
This indicator has two additional parameters over Pivot Point Supertrend:
A flag to turn the range filter on or off
A range size threshold in percent
With that last parameter, you can define what a range is. The best value will depend on the asset you are trading.
Also, there are two new display options.
"Show (non-) trendline for ranges" - determines whether to draw the "trendline" inside of a range. Seeing as there is no trend in a range, this is usually just visual noise.
"Show suppressed signals" - allows you to see the Buy/Sell signals that were skipped by the range filter.
How to use Tri-State Supertrend in a strategy
You can use the Buy and Sell signals to enter positions as you would with a normal supertrend. Adding stop loss, trailing stop etc. is of course encouraged and very helpful. But what to do when the Range signal appears?
I currently run a strategy on LDO based on Tri-State Supertrend which appears to be profitable. (It will quite likely be open sourced at some point, but it is not released yet.)
In that strategy, I experimented with different actions being taken when the Range state is entered:
Continue: Just keep last position open during the range
Close: Close the last position when entering range
Reversal: During the range, execute the OPPOSITE of each signal (sell on "buy", buy on "sell")
In the backtest, it transpired that "Continue" was the most profitable option for this strategy.
How ranges are detected
The mechanism is pretty simple: During each Buy or Sell trend, we record price movement, specifically, the furthest move in the trend direction that was encountered (expressed as a percentage).
When a new signal is issued, the algorithm checks whether this value (for the last trend) is below the range size set by the user. If yes, we enter Range mode.
The same logic is used to exit Range mode. This check is performed on every bar in a range, so we can enter a buy or sell as early as possible.
I found that this simple logic works astonishingly well in practice.
Pros/cons of the range filter
A range filter is an incredibly useful addition to a supertrend and will most likely boost your profits.
You will see at most one false signal at the beginning of each range (because it takes a bit of time to detect the range); after that, no more false signals will appear over the range's entire duration. So this is a huge advantage.
There is essentially only one small price you have to pay:
When a range ends, the first Buy/Sell signal you get will be delayed over the regular supertrend's signal. This is, again, because the algorithm needs some time to detect that the range has ended. If you select a range size of, say, 1%, you will essentially lose 1% of profit in each range because of this delay.
In practice, it is very likely that the benefits of a range filter outweigh its cost. Ranges can last quite some time, equating to many false signals that the range filter will completely eliminate (all except for the first one, as explained above).
You have to do your own tests though :)
MACDh with divergences & impulse system (overlayed on prices)-----------------------------------------------------------------
General Description:
This indicator ( the one on the top panel above ) consists on some lines, arrows and labels drawn over the price bars/candles indicating the detection of regular divergences between price and the classic MACD histogram (shown on the low panel). This script is special because it can be adjusted to fit several criteria when trading divergences filtering them according to the "height" and "width" of the patterns. The script also includes the "extra features" Impulse System and Keltner Channels, which you will hardly find anywhere else in similar classic MACD histogram divergence indicators.
The indicator helps to find trend reversals, and it works on any market, any instrument, any timeframe, and any market condition (except against really strong trends that do not show any other sign of reversion yet).
Please take on consideration that divergences should be taken with caution.
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Definition of classic Bullish and Bearish divergences:
* Bearish divergences occur in uptrends identifying market tops. A classical or regular bearish divergence occurs when prices reach a new high and then pull back, with an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) dropping below its zero line. Prices stabilize and rally to a higher high, but the oscillator reaches a lower peak than it did on a previous rally.
In the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), in area X (around August 2021), NKE rallied to a new bull market high and MACD-Histogram rallied with it, rising above its previous peak and showing that bulls were extremely strong. In area Y, MACD-H fell below its centerline and at the same time prices punched below the zone between the two moving averages. In area Z, NKE rallied to a new bull market high, but the rally of MACD-H was feeble, reflecting the bulls’ weakness. Its downtick from peak Z completed a bearish divergence, giving a strong sell signal and auguring a nasty bear market.
* Bullish divergences , in the other hand, occur towards the ends of downtrends identifying market bottoms. A classical (also called regular) bullish divergence occurs when prices and an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) both fall to a new low, rally, with the oscillator rising above its zero line, then both fall again. This time, prices drop to a lower low, but the oscillator traces a higher bottom than during its previous decline.
In the example in the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), you see a bearish divergence that signaled the October 2022 bear market bottom, giving a strong buy signal right near the lows. In area A, NKE (weekly charts) appeared in a free fall. The record low A of MACD-H indicated that bears were extremely strong. In area B, MACD-H rallied above its centerline. Notice the brief rally of prices at that moment. In area C, NKE slid to a new bear market low, but MACD-H traced a much more shallow low. Its uptick completed a bullish divergence, giving a strong buy signal.
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Some cool features included in this indicator:
1. This indicator also includes the “ Impulse System ”. The Impulse System is based on two indicators, a 13-day exponential moving average and the MACD-Histogram, and identifies inflection points where a trend speeds up or slows down. The moving average identifies the trend, while the MACD-Histogram measures momentum. This unique indicator combination is color coded into the price bars for easy reference.
Calculation:
Green Price Bar: (13-period EMA > previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram > previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Red Price Bar: (13-period EMA < previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram < previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Price bars are colored blue when conditions for a Red Price Bar or Green Price Bar are not met. The MACD-Histogram is based on MACD(12,26,9).
The Impulse System works more like a censorship system. Green price bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising (you don't have permission to sell). A red price bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD Histogram are falling (you don't have permission to buy). A blue price bar indicates mixed technical signals, with neither buying nor selling pressure predominating (either both buying or selling are permitted).
2. Another "extra feature" included here is the " Keltner Channels ". Keltner Channels are volatility-based envelopes set above and below an exponential moving average.
3. It were also included a couple of EMAs.
Everything can be removed from the chart any time.
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Options/adjustments for this indicator:
*Horizontal Distance (width) between two tops/bottoms criteria.
Refers to the horizontal distance between the MACH histogram peaks involved in the divergence
*Height of tops/bottoms criteria (for Histogram).
Refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the MACH HISTOGRAM peaks involved in the divergence: 1st Histogram Peak is X times the 2nd.
*Height/Vertical deviation of tops/bottoms criteria (for Price).
Deviation refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the PRICE peaks involved in the divergence.
*Plot Regular Bullish Divergences?.
*Plot Regular Bearish Divergences?.
*Delete Previous Cancelled Divergences?.
*Shows a pair of EMAs.
*Shows Keltner Channels (using ATR)
Keltner Channels are volatility-based envelopes set above and below an exponential moving average.
*This indicator also has the option to show the Impulse System over the price bars/candles.
MACDh with divergences & impulse system-----------------------------------------------------------------
General Description:
This indicator ( the one on the low panel ) is a classic MACD that also shows regular divergences between its histogram and the prices. This script is special because it can be adjusted to fit several criteria when trading divergences filtering them according to the "height" and "width" of the patterns. The script also includes the "extra feature" Impulse System, which you will hardly find anywhere else in similar classic MACD histogram divergence indicators.
The indicator helps to find trend reversals, and it works on any market, any instrument, any timeframe, and any market condition (except against really strong trends that do not show any other sign of reversion yet).
Please take on consideration that divergences should be taken with caution.
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Definition of classic Bullish and Bearish divergences:
* Bearish divergences occur in uptrends identifying market tops. A classical or regular bearish divergence occurs when prices reach a new high and then pull back, with an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) dropping below its zero line. Prices stabilize and rally to a higher high, but the oscillator reaches a lower peak than it did on a previous rally.
In the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), in area X (around August 2021), NKE rallied to a new bull market high and MACD-Histogram rallied with it, rising above its previous peak and showing that bulls were extremely strong. In area Y, MACD-H fell below its centerline and at the same time prices punched below the zone between the two moving averages. In area Z, NKE rallied to a new bull market high, but the rally of MACD-H was feeble, reflecting the bulls’ weakness. Its downtick from peak Z completed a bearish divergence, giving a strong sell signal and auguring a nasty bear market.
* Bullish divergences , in the other hand, occur towards the ends of downtrends identifying market bottoms. A classical (also called regular) bullish divergence occurs when prices and an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) both fall to a new low, rally, with the oscillator rising above its zero line, then both fall again. This time, prices drop to a lower low, but the oscillator traces a higher bottom than during its previous decline.
In the example in the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), you see a bearish divergence that signaled the October 2022 bear market bottom, giving a strong buy signal right near the lows. In area A, NKE (weekly charts) appeared in a free fall. The record low A of MACD-H indicated that bears were extremely strong. In area B, MACD-H rallied above its centerline. Notice the brief rally of prices at that moment. In area C, NKE slid to a new bear market low, but MACD-H traced a much more shallow low. Its uptick completed a bullish divergence, giving a strong buy signal.
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Extra feature: Impulse System
This indicator also includes the “ Impulse System ”. The Impulse System is based on two indicators, a 13-day exponential moving average and the MACD-Histogram, and identifies inflection points where a trend speeds up or slows down. The moving average identifies the trend, while the MACD-Histogram measures momentum. This unique indicator combination is color coded into the price bars or macd histogram bars for easy reference.
Calculation:
Green Price Bar: (13-period EMA > previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram > previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Red Price Bar: (13-period EMA < previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram < previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Histogram bars are colored blue when conditions for a Red Histogram Bar or Green Histogram Bar are not met. The MACD-Histogram is based on MACD(12,26,9).
The Impulse System works more like a censorship system. Green histogram bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising (you don't have permission to sell). A red histogram bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD Histogram are falling (you don't have permission to buy). A blue histogram bar indicates mixed technical signals, with neither buying nor selling pressure predominating (either both buying or selling are permitted).
The impulse system can be removed from the chart any time.
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Options/adjustments for this indicator:
*Horizontal Distance (width) between two tops/bottoms criteria.
Refers to the horizontal distance between the MACH histogram peaks involved in the divergence
*Height of tops/bottoms criteria (for Histogram).
Refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the MACH HISTOGRAM peaks involved in the divergence: 1st Histogram Peak is X times the 2nd.
*Height/Vertical deviation of tops/bottoms criteria (for Price).
Deviation refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the PRICE peaks involved in the divergence.
*Plot Regular Bullish Divergences?.
*Plot Regular Bearish Divergences?.
*Delete Previous Cancelled Divergences?.
*This indicator also has the option to show the Impulse System over the MACD histogram bars
CC Trend strategy 2- Downtrend ShortTrend Strategy #2
Indicators:
1. EMA(s)
2. Fibonacci retracement with a mutable lookback period
Strategy:
1. Short Only
2. No preset Stop Loss/Take Profit
3. 0.01% commission
4. When in a profit and a closure above the 200ema, the position takes a profit.
5. The position is stopped When a closure over the (0.764) Fibonacci ratio occurs.
* NO IMMEDIATE RE-ENTRIES EVER!*
How to use it and what makes it unique:
This strategy will enter often and stop quickly. The goal with this strategy is to take losses often but catch the big move to the downside when it occurs through the Silvercross/Fibonacci combination. This is a unique strategy because it uses a programmed Fibonacci ratio that can be used within the strategy and on any program. You can manipulate the stats by changing the lookback period of the Fibonacci retracement and looking at different assets/timeframes.
This description tells the indicators combined to create a new strategy, with commissions and take profit/stop loss conditions included, and the process of strategy execution with a description of how to use it. If you have any questions feel free to PM me and boost if you found it helpful. Thank you, pineUSERS!
CHEATCODE1
Average True Range Trailing Mean [Alifer]Upgrade of the Average True Range default indicator by TradingView. It adds and plots a trailing mean to show periods of increased volatility more clearly.
ATR TRAILING MEAN
A trailing mean, also known as a moving average, is a statistical calculation used to smooth out data over time and identify trends or patterns in a time series.
In our indicator, it clearly shows when the ATR value spikes outside of it's average range, making it easier to identify periods of increased volatility.
Here's how the ATR Trailing Mean (atr_mean) is calculated:
atr_mean = ta.cum(atr) / (bar_index + 1) * atr_mult
The ta.cum() function calculates the cumulative sum of the ATR over all bars up to the current bar.
(bar_index + 1) represents the number of bars processed up to the current bar, including the current one.
By dividing the cumulative ATR ta.cum(atr) by (bar_index + 1) and then multiplying it by atr_mult (Multiplier), we obtain the ATR Trailing Mean value.
If atr_mult is set to 1.0, the ATR Trailing Mean will be equal to the simple average of the ATR values, and it will follow the ATR's general trend.
However, if atr_mult is increased, the ATR Trailing Mean will react more strongly to the ATR's recent changes, making it more sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
On the other hand, reducing atr_mult will make the ATR Trailing Mean less responsive to recent changes in ATR, making it smoother and less prone to reacting to short-term volatility.
In summary, adjusting the atr_mult input allows traders to fine-tune the ATR Trailing Mean's responsiveness based on their preferred level of sensitivity to recent changes in market volatility.
IMPLEMENTATION IN A STRATEGY
You can easily implement this indicator in an existing strategy, to only enter positions when the ATR is above the ATR Trailing Mean (with Multiplier-adjusted sensitivity). To do so, add the following lines of codes.
Under Inputs:
length = input.int(title="Length", defval=20, minval=1)
atr_mult = input.float(defval=1.0, step = 0.1, title = "Multiplier", tooltip = "Adjust the sensitivity of the ATR Trailing Mean line.")
smoothing = input.string(title="Smoothing", defval="RMA", options= )
ma_function(source, length) =>
switch smoothing
"RMA" => ta.rma(source, length)
"SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)
"EMA" => ta.ema(source, length)
=> ta.wma(source, length)
This will allow you to define the Length of the ATR (lookback length over which the ATR is calculated), the Multiplier to adjust the Trailing Mean's sensitivity and the type of Smoothing to be used for the ATR.
Under Calculations:
atr= ma_function(ta.tr(true), length)
atr_mean = ta.cum(atr) / (bar_index+1) * atr_mult
This will calculate the ATR based on Length and Smoothing, and the resulting ATR Trailing Mean.
Under Entry Conditions, add the following to your existing conditions:
and atr > atr_mean
This will make it so that entries are only triggered when the ATR is above the ATR Trailing Mean (adjusted by the Multiplier value you defined earlier).
ATR - DEFINITION AND HISTORY
The Average True Range (ATR) is a technical indicator used to measure market volatility, regardless of the direction of the price. It was developed by J. Welles Wilder and introduced in his book "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" in 1978. ATR provides valuable insights into the degree of price movement or volatility experienced by a financial asset, such as a stock, currency pair, commodity, or cryptocurrency, over a specific period.
ATR - CALCULATION AND USAGE
The ATR calculation involves three components:
1 — True Range (TR): The True Range is a measure of the asset's price movement for a given period. It takes into account the following factors:
The difference between the high and low prices of the current period.
The absolute value of the difference between the high price of the current period and the closing price of the previous period.
The absolute value of the difference between the low price of the current period and the closing price of the previous period.
Mathematically, the True Range (TR) for the current period is calculated as follows:
TR = max(high - low, abs(high - previous_close), abs(low - previous_close))
2 — ATR Calculation: The ATR is calculated as a Moving Average (MA) of the True Range over a specified period.
The ATR is calculated as follows:
ATR = MA(TR, length)
3 — ATR Interpretation: The ATR value represents the average volatility of the asset over the chosen period. Higher ATR values indicate higher volatility, while lower ATR values suggest lower volatility.
Traders and investors can use ATR in various ways:
Setting Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels: ATR can help determine appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels in trading strategies. A larger ATR value might require wider stop-loss levels to allow for the asset's natural price fluctuations, while a smaller ATR value might allow for tighter stop-loss levels.
Identifying Market Volatility: A sharp increase in ATR might indicate heightened market uncertainty or the potential for significant price movements. Conversely, a decreasing ATR might suggest a period of low volatility and possible consolidation.
Comparing Volatility Between Assets: Since ATR uses absolute values, it shouldn't be used to compare volatility between different assets, as assets with higher prices will consistently have higher ATR values, while assets with lower prices will consistently have lower ATR values. However, the addition of a trailing mean makes such a comparison possible. An asset whose ATR is consistently close to its ATR Trailing Mean will have a lower volatility than an asset whose ATR continuously moves far above and below its ATR Trailing Mean. This can help traders and investors decide which markets to trade based on their risk tolerance and trading strategies.
Determining Position Size: ATR can be used to adjust position sizes, taking into account the asset's volatility. Smaller position sizes might be appropriate for more volatile assets to manage risk effectively.
SuperTrend Enhanced Pivot Reversal - Strategy [PresentTrading]
- Introduction and How it is Different
The SuperTrend Enhanced Pivot Reversal is a unique approach to trading that combines the best of two worlds: the precision of pivot reversal points and the trend-following power of the SuperTrend indicator. This strategy is designed to provide traders with clear entry and exit points, while also filtering out potentially false signals using the SuperTrend indicator.
BTCUSDT 6hr
ETHBTC 6hr
Unlike traditional pivot reversal strategies, this approach uses the SuperTrend indicator as a filter. This means that it only takes trades that align with the overall trend, as determined by the SuperTrend indicator. This can help to reduce the number of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the strategy.
The Pivot Reversal Strategy with SuperTrend Filter is particularly well-suited to the cryptocurrency market for the reason of High Volatility. This means that prices can change rapidly in a very short time, making it possible to make a profit quickly. The strategy's use of pivot points allows traders to take advantage of these rapid price changes by identifying potential reversal points
- Strategy: How it Works
The strategy works by identifying pivot reversal points, which are points in the price chart where the price is likely to reverse. These points are identified using a combination of the ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow functions, which find the highest and lowest points in the price chart over a certain period.
Once a pivot reversal point is identified, the strategy checks the direction of the SuperTrend indicator. If the SuperTrend is positive (indicating an uptrend), the strategy will only take long trades. If the SuperTrend is negative (indicating a downtrend), the strategy will only take short trades.
The strategy also includes a stop loss level, which is set as a percentage of the entry price. This helps to limit potential losses if the price moves in the opposite direction to the trade.
- Trade Direction
The trade direction can be set to "Long", "Short", or "Both". This allows the trader to choose whether they want to take only long trades (buying low and selling high), only short trades (selling high and buying low), or both. This can be useful depending on the trader's view of the market and their risk tolerance.
- Usage
To use the Pivot Reversal Strategy with SuperTrend Filter, simply input the desired parameters into the script and apply it to the price chart of the asset you wish to trade. The strategy will then identify potential trade entry and exit points, which will be displayed on the price chart.
- Default Settings
The default settings for the strategy are as follows:
ATR Length: 5
Factor: 2.618
Trade Direction: Both
Stop Loss Level: 20%
Commission: 0.1%
Slippage: 1
Currency: USD
Each trade: 10% of account equity
Initial capital: $10,000
These settings can be adjusted to suit the trader's preferences and risk tolerance. Always remember to test any changes to the settings using historical data before applying them to live trades.
Developing Market Profile / TPO [Honestcowboy]The Developing Market Profile Indicator aims to broaden the horizon of Market Profile / TPO research and trading. While standard Market Profiles aim is to show where PRICE is in relation to TIME on a previous session (usually a day). Developing Market Profile will change bar by bar and display PRICE in relation to TIME for a user specified number of past bars.
What is a market profile?
"Market Profile is an intra-day charting technique (price vertical, time/activity horizontal) devised by J. Peter Steidlmayer. Steidlmayer was seeking a way to determine and to evaluate market value as it developed in the day time frame. The concept was to display price on a vertical axis against time on the horizontal, and the ensuing graphic generally is a bell shape--fatter at the middle prices, with activity trailing off and volume diminished at the extreme higher and lower prices."
For education on market profiles I recommend you search the net and study some profitable traders who use it.
Key Differences
Does not have a value area but distinguishes each column in relation to the biggest column in percentage terms.
Updates bar by bar
Does not take sessions into account
Shows historical values for each bar
While there is an entire education system build around Market Profiles they usually focus on a daily profile and in some cases how the value area develops during the day (there are indicators showing the developing value area).
The idea of trading based on a developing value area is what inspired me to build the Developing Market Profile.
🟦 CALCULATION
Think of this Developing Market Profile the same way as you would think of a moving average. On each bar it will lookback 200 bars (or as user specified) and calculate a Market Profile from those bars (range).
🔹Market Profile gets calculated using these steps:
Get the highest high and lowest low of the price range.
Separate that range into user specified amount of price zones (all spaced evenly)
Loop through the ranges bars and on each bar check in which price zones price was, then add +1 to the zones price was in (we do this using the OccurenceArray)
After it looped through all bars in the range it will draw columns for each price zone (using boxes) and make them as wide as the OccurenceArray dictates in number of bars
🔹Coloring each column:
The script will find the biggest column in the Profile and use that as a reference for all other columns. It will then decide for each column individually how big it is in % compared to the biggest column. It will use that percentage to decide which color to give it, top 20% will be red, top 40% purple, top 60% blue, top 80% green and all the rest yellow. The user is able to adjust these numbers for further customisation.
The historical display of the profiles uses plotchar() and will not only use the color of the column at that time but the % rating will also decide transparancy for further detail when analysing how the profiles developed over time. Each of those historical profiles is calculated using its own 200 past bars. This makes the script very heavy and that is why it includes optimisation settings, more info below.
🟦 USAGE
My general idea of the markets is that they are ever changing and that in studying that changing behaviour a good trader is able to distinguish new behaviour from old behaviour and adapt his approach before losing traders "weak hands" do.
A Market Profile can visually show a trader what kind of market environment we currently are in. In training this visual feedback helps traders remember past market environments and how the market behaved during these times.
Use the history shown using plotchars in colors to get an idea of how the Market Profile looked at each bar of the chart.
This history will help in studying how price moves at different stages of the Market Profile development.
I'm in no way an expert in trading Market Profiles so take this information with a grain of salt. Below an idea of how I would trade using this indicator:
🟦 SETTINGS
🔹MARKET PROFILING
Lookback: The amount of bars the Market Profile will look in the past to calculate where price has been the most in that range
Resolution: This is the amount of columns the Market Profile will have. These columns are calculated using the highest and lowest point price has been for the lookback period
Resolution is limited to a maximum of 32 because of pinescript plotting limits (64). Each plotchar() because of using variable colors takes up 2 of these slots
🔹VISUAL SETTINGS
Profile Distance From Chart: The amount of bars the market profile will be offset from the current bar
Border width (MP): The line thickness of the Market Profile column borders
Character: This is the character the history will use to show past profiles, default is a square.
Color theme: You can pick 5 colors from biggest column of the Profile to smallest column of the profile.
Numbers: these are for % to decide column color. So on default top 20% will be red, top 40% purple... Always use these in descending order
Show Market Profile: This setting will enable/disable the current Market Profile (columns on right side of current bar)
Show Profile History: This setting will enable/disable the Profile History which are the colored characters you see on each bar
🔹OPTIMISATION AND DEBUGGING
Calculate from here: The Market Profile will only start to calculate bar by bar from this point. Setting is needed to optimise loading time and quite frankly without it the script would probably exceed tradingview loading time limits.
Min Size: This setting is there to avoid visual bugs in the script. Scaling the chart there can be issues where the Market Profile extends all the way to 0. To avoid this use a minimum size bigger than the bugged bottom box
Pivot HL Trading SetupThis simple script base on function of Pivot High Low to plot Trading Setup on chart with detail as below:
2. Trading Setup
2.1 Buy setup
+ New Pivot Low is plotted
+ Entry Long at market price.
+ Stoploss at Pivot Low
+ Takeprofit at Pivot High
+ Buy setup invalidation when price crossed Pivot High or Pivot Low
2.1 Sell setup
+ New Pivot High is plotted
+ Entry Short at market price.
+ Stoploss at Pivot High
+ Takeprofit at Pivot Low
+ Sell setup invalidation when price crossed Pivot High or Pivot Low
Cycles AnalysisI strongly believe in cycles, so I wanted to create something that would give a visual representation of bull/bear markets and give a prediction based on the previous data. It's up to you how to decide what is a bull/bear cycle. There is no single rule for all assets because 20% drop in SP500 starts a bear market in traditional markets, while 35% drop for Bitcoin is a Tuesday. You have two options on how to decide when markets turn: either by a % change (traditional definition) or if there is no new high/low after X days. A softer version to show periods of no new highs/lows is to use the Stagnation option. Stagnation periods hava the same logic as the cycle change by X days: if there is no new high/low then we treat this period as a stagnation. The difference is that stagnation periods do not change cycle directions and do not participate in calculations.
The script also draws a possible "predictions" zone where the current cycle might end up. There is no magic here, it just takes previous cycles' size to draw the possible boundaries. If you decide to use percentiles then the box area will be taken from the percentiles calculations, otherwise it will come from the full data. "x" in the predictions zone represents a target mean (average) value, "o" represents a target median value.
A few things to keep in mind:
- this script is not supposed to be used in trading. It was created for analysis. It repaints. And when I say "it repaints" - it might like repaint the last 6 months of data if a new low comes and we are in a stagnation period (aka not a financial advice).
- it doesn't work with replays as it does calculations only once on the last candle.
- you need at least 3 periods to be able to calculate percentiles. And after this it will remove at least 1 period on each side. Which means that 90 percentile will not be a real 90 percentile until you have enough periods for it to be (20 in this specific case).
- it assumes that a year = 360 days, and a month = 30 days. So the duration presentation might not be exact, until you move to the day level.
- I had macro analysis in mind when I created the script, but nothing stops you from using it in a 1m time frame for BTC. Just change the time duration presentation.
- the last period is not finished, so it doesn't participate in calculations.
VOLD Ratio (Volume Difference Ratio) by TenozenAnother helpful indicator is here! VOLD Ratio is calculated by the net volume of a buying candle, divided by the net volume of a sell candle.
Formula:
buying net volume/selling net volume
It's a simple indicator, but don't underestimate this simplicity. It's a powerful indicator that would help you to decide whether the volume is getting interested in the direction that the market would take. So assume when the market is above the Bollinger Bands, it means that the volume is at a buying extreme, by that, we could expect the market to get back towards the mean, as there is a lot of buying demand that entered the market. How about below the Bollinger Bands? it means that the volume is at a selling extreme, we could expect that there is a lot of volume getting in toward the sellers, so we could take advantage of the opportunity to go for a long. Lastly, the Bollinger Bands would help you guys to determine the liquidity of the market, if the Bollinger Bands get smaller over time, it means there is no interest for the market to enter yet, and if the Bollinger Bands get bigger over time, it means there is interest for the market to enter in the session.
Tips & Reminder:
- We shouldn't use this indicator by itself, make sure to use an Indicator that would help you guys to determine the momentum and the liquidity of the market.
- The higher the timeframe, the slower this indicator would signal an entry, by that use a smaller timeframe... I suggest using a 15M chart for the execution.
- Always trade in the medium-longterm direction if you want to have a high probability trade.
- Be patient in your execution, it's more likely the market would go higher or lower after going in the extreme of the Bollinger Bands.
Well, that's it! Hope you guys enjoy using this indicator, let me know if there is any question or suggestion. Ciao...
Swing Volume Profiles [LuxAlgo]The Swing Volume Profiles indicator aims to calculate and highlight trading activity at specific price levels between two swing points; allowing traders to reveal dominant and/or significant price levels based on volume.
By measuring traded volume at all price levels in the market over a specified time period, the script can also be used to detect some key analysis generally such as supply & demand, buy-side & sell-side liquidity levels, unfilled liquidity voids, and imbalances that can highlight on the chart.
🔶 USAGE
A volume profile is an advanced charting tool that displays the traded volume at different price levels over a specific period. It helps you visualize where the majority of trading activity has occurred.
Key Levels are the areas where the volume is concentrated or where there are significant volume spikes. These levels are known as key support and resistance levels. High-volume nodes indicate areas of high activity and are likely to act as support or resistance in the future.
Volume profile also helps identify value areas, which represent the price levels where the most trading activity has taken place. These levels can act as areas of support or resistance as traders perceive them as fair value.
The Point of Control describes the price level where the most volume was traded. A Naked Point of Control (also called a Virgin Point of Control) is a previous POC that has not been traded. Extending PoC options 'Until Bar Cross' or 'Until Bar Touch' helps in identifying Naked Point of Control Lines.
Previous PoC levels can serve as support and resistance for future price movements. Extending PoC Level 'Until Last Bar' option will help to identify such levels.
🔶 DETAILS
One of the unique features of the script is its ability to detect some other key levels such as levels of acceptance and rejection.
Levels of rejection we may summarize as supply and demand levels, these are also referred to as buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels. They usually occur at extreme highs or lows, where prices may be too high for buyers (high supply, low demand) or too low for sellers (low supply, high demand)
Levels of acceptance are the levels where Liquidity Voids occur, these are also referred to imbalances. Liquidity voids are sudden changes in price when the price jumps from one level to another. The peculiar thing about liquidity voids is that they almost always fill up, so we call them levels of acceptance.
🔶 ALERTS
When an alert is configured, the user will have the ability to be notified in case:
Point Of Control Line is touched/crossed
Value Area High Line is touched/crossed
Value Area Low Line is touched/crossed
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Display Options
Mode: Controls the lookback length of detection and visualization, where Present assumes last X bars specifid in '# Bars' option and Historical assumes all data available to the user as well as allowed limits of visiual objects (boxs, lines, labels etc)
# Bars: Controls the lookback length.
🔹 Swing Volume Profiles
The script takes into account user-defined parameters and plots volume profiles. Due to Pine Script™ drwaing objects limit only total volume profiles are presented.
Swing Detection Length: Lookback period
Swing Volume Profiles: Toggles the visibility of the Volume Profiles, with color options to differentiate the Value Area within a profile.
Profile Range Background Fill: Toggles the visibility of the Volume Profiles Range
🔹 Point of Control (PoC)
Point of Control (POC) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume
Point of Control (PoC): Toggles the visibility of the Point of Control
Developing PoC: Toggles the visibility of the Developing PoC
Extend PoC: Option that allows detecting virgin PoC levels. Virgin Point of Control (VPoC) is defined as a Point of Control that has never been revisited or touched. The option also allows PoC levels to extend till the last bar aiming to present levels from history where the levels were traded significantly and those levels can be used as support and resistance levels.
🔹 Value Area (VA)
Value Area (VA) – The range of price levels in which the specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period.
Value Area Volume %: Specifies percentage of the Value Area
Value Area High (VAH): Toggles the visibility of the Value Area High, the highest price level within the Value Area
Value Area Low (VAL): Toggles the visibility of the Value Area Low, the lowest price level within the Value Area
Value Area (VA) Background Fill: Toggles the visibility of the Value Area Range
🔹 Liquidity Levels / Voids
Unfilled Liquidity, Thresh: Enable display of the Unfilled Liquidity Levels and Liquidity Voids, where threshold value defines the significance of the level.
🔹 Profile Stats
Position, Size: Specifies the position and the size of the label presenting Profile Stats, the tooltip of the label includes all related info for each profile.
Price, Price Change, and Cumulative Volume: Enable display of the given options on the chart.
🔹 Volume Profile Others
Number of Rows: Specify how many rows each histogram will have. Caution, having it set to high values will quickly hit Pine Script™ drawing objects limit and may cause fewer historical profiles to be displayed.
Placement: Place profile either left or right.
Profile Width %: Alters the width of the rows in the histogram, relative to the calculated profile length.
🔶 RELATED SCRIPTS
Alternative Liquidity Void Detection script, Buyside-Sellside-Liquidity
RSI of Zero Lag MA (ValueRay)The RSI of a Zero Lag Moving Average a powerful tool for for reliable exit signals.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely recognized momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It provides valuable insights into overbought and oversold conditions, enabling traders to identify potential reversal points and take advantage of market inefficiencies.
The RSI of a Zero Lag Indicator takes this concept a step further by incorporating the Zero Lag Moving Average. The Zero Lag Moving Average is a cutting-edge indicator that minimizes lag and provides a smoother representation of price action, allowing for quicker and more precise responses to market movements.
By combining the RSI with the Zero Lag Moving Average, this indicator offers traders a superior exit strategy. When the RSI reaches extreme levels of overbought or oversold conditions, it indicates a potential reversal in the market. The Zero Lag Moving Average further enhances this signal by reducing delays and providing timely exit points.
Moreover, the RSI of a Zero Lag Indicator is not limited to mean reversion strategies. While it excels in identifying mean reversion opportunities, it can also be used in conjunction with other trading approaches. Traders can take advantage of its objective signals to exit trades profitably, regardless of their chosen strategy.
With its ability to accurately pinpoint overbought and oversold conditions, the RSI of a Zero Lag Indicator offers traders a competitive edge in the market. By providing timely exit signals and minimizing lag, it helps traders optimize their trading decisions and increase their chances of success.
Mad_StandardpartsLibrary "Mad_Standardparts"
This are my Standardparts used in upcoming scipts
roundTo(_value, _decimals)
Round a floating point value to a specified number of decimal places.
@description This function takes a floating point value and rounds it to a specified number of decimal places.
Parameters:
_value (float) : The floating point value to be rounded.
_decimals (int) : The number of decimal places to round to. Must be a non-negative integer.
Returns: The rounded value, as a floating point number.
clear_all()
Delete all drawings on the chart.
@description This function deletes all drawings on the chart, including lines, boxes, and labels.
Returns: None.
shifting(_value)
Create a string of spaces to shift text over by a specified amount.
@description This function takes an integer value and returns a string consisting of that many spaces, which can be used to shift text over in a PineScript chart.
Parameters:
_value (int) : The number of spaces to create in the output string.
Returns: A string consisting of the specified number of spaces.
fromLog(_value)
Convert a linear value to a logarithmic value.
@description This function takes a linear value and converts it to a logarithmic value, using the formula specified in the code.
Parameters:
_value (float)
Returns: The corresponding logarithmic value, as a floating point number.
toLog(_value)
Convert a logarithmic value to a linear value.
@description This function takes a logarithmic value and converts it to a linear value, using the formula specified in the code.
Parameters:
_value (float)
Returns: The corresponding linear value, as a floating point number.
f_getbartime()
Calculate the time per bar on the chart.
@description This function calculates the time per bar on the chart based on the first 100 bars.
Returns: The time per bar, as an integer value.
Volatility patterns / quantifytools- Overview
Volatility patterns detect various forms of indecisive price action, on a larger scale as a compressed range and on a smaller scale as indecision candles. Indecisive and volatility suppressing price action can be thought of as a spring being pressed down. The more suppression, the more tension is built and eventually released as a spike or series of spikes in volatility. Each volatility pattern is assigned an influence period, during which average and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics.
- Patterns
The following scenarios are qualified as indecision candles: inside candles, indecision engulfing candles and volatility shifts.
By default, each indecision candle is considered a valid pattern only when another indecision candle has taken place within 3 periods, e.g. prior inside candle + indecision engulfing candle = valid volatility pattern. This measurement is taken to filter noise by looking for multiple hints of pending volatility, rather than just one. Level of tolerated noise can be changed via input menu by using sensitivity setting, by default set to 2.
Sensitivity at 1: Any single indecision candle is considered a valid pattern
Sensitivity at 2: 2 indecision candles within 3 bars is considered a valid pattern
Sensitivity at 3: 2 indecision candles within 2 bars (consecutive) is considered a valid pattern
The following scenarios are qualified as range patterns: series of lower highs/higher lows and series of low volatility pivots.
A pivot is defined by highest/lowest point in price, by default within 2 periods back and 2 periods forward. When 4 pivots with qualities mentioned above are found, a box indicating compressed range will appear. Both required pivots and pivot definition can be adjusted via input menu.
- Influence time and metrics
By default, influence time for each volatility pattern is set to 6 candles, a period for which spike(s) in volatility is expected. For each influence period, average relative volatility (volatility relative to volatility SMA 20) and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics. All metrics used in calculations are visible in "Data Window "tab. Average and peak volatility during influence period will vary depending on chart, timeframe and chosen settings. Tweaking the settings might result in an improvement and is worth experimenting with.
- Visuals
By default, indecision candles are visualized as yellow lines and range patterns as orange boxes. Influence time periods are respectively visualized as colored candle borders, applied as long as influence time period is active. All colors are fully customizable via input menu.
- Practical guide
Volatility patterns depict moments of equal strength from both bulls and bears. While this equilibrium is in place, price is stagnant and compresses until either side initiates volatility, releasing the built up tension. On top of hedging and playing the volatility using volatility based instruments, some other methods can be applied to take advantage of the somewhat tricky areas of indecision.
Example #1: Trading volatility
Volatility is not a bad thing from a trading perspective, but can actually be fertile ground for executing trade setups. Trading volatility influence periods from higher timeframes on lower timeframes gives greater resolution to work with and opportunities to take advantage of the wild swings created.
Example #2: Finding bias for patterns
Points of confluence where it anyway makes sense to favor one side over the other can be used for establishing bias for indecisive price action as well. At face value, it makes sense to expect bearish reactions at range highs and bullish reactions at range low, for which volatility patterns can provide a catalyst.
Example #3: Betting on initiation direction
Betting on direction of the first volatile move can easily go against you, but if risk/reward is able to compensate for the poor win rate, it's a valid idea to consider and explore.
Gaussian Fisher Transform Price Reversals - FTRHello Traders !
Looking for better trading results ?
"This indicator shows you how to identify price reversals in a timely manner." John F. Ehlers
Introduction :
The Gaussian Fisher Transform Price Reversals indicator, dubbed FTR for short, is a stat based price reversal detection indicator inspired by and based on the work of the electrical engineer now private trader John F. Ehlers.
The Fisher Transform :
It is a common assumption that prices have a gaussian / normal probability density function(PDF), i.e. a sample of n close prices would be normally distributed if the probability of observing a price value say at any given standard deviation range is equal to that probability in the case of the normal distribution, e.g. 68% off all samples fell within one standard deviation around the mean, which is what we would expect if the data was normal.
However Price Action is not normally distributed and thus can not be conventionally interpreted in this way, Formally the Fisher Transform, transforms the distribution of bounded ranging price action (were price action takes values in a range from -1 to 1) into that of a normal distribution, alternatively it may be said the Fisher Transform changes the PDF of any waveform so that the transformed output has n approximately Gaussian PDF, It does so through the following equations. taken directly from the work of John F. Ehlers - Using The Fisher Transform
By substituting price data in the above formulas, bounded ranging price actions (over a given user defined period lookback - this determines the range price ranges in, see the Intermediate formula above) distribution is transformed to that in the normal case. This means when the input, the Intermediate ,(the Midpoint - see formula above) approaches either limit within the range the outputs are greatly amplified, this amplification accentuates /puts more weight on the larger deviations or limits within the range, conversely when price action is varying round the mean of the range the output is approximately equal to unity (the input is approximately equal to the input, the intermediate)
The inputs (Intermediates) are converted to normal outputs and the nonlinear Transfer of the Fisher Transform with varying senesitivity's (gammas) can be seen in the graph / image above. Although sensitivity adjustments are not currently available in this script (I forgot to add it) the outputs may be greatly amplified as gamma (the coefficient of the Fisher Transformation - see Fish equation) approaches 1. the purple line show this graphically, as a higher gamma leads to a greater amplification than in the standard case (the red line which is the standard fisher transformation, the black plot is the Fish with a gamma of 1, which is unity sensativity)
Reversal plots and Breakouts :
- Support lines are plotted with their corresponding Fish value when there is a crossover of the Fish and Fish SMA <= a given standard deviation of Fish
- Resistance lines are plotted with their corresponding Fish value when there is a crossunder of the Fish and Fish SMA >= a given standard deviation of Fish
- Reversals are these support and resistance line plots
Breakouts and Volume bars :
Breakouts cause the reversal lines to break (when the high/low is above the resistance/support), Breakouts are more "high quality" when they occur conditional on high volume, the highlighted bars represent volume standard deviations ranging from -3 to 3. When breakouts occure on high volume this may be a sign of the continutaion of the trend (reversals would signify the start of a new trend).
Hope you enjoy, Happy Trading !
(be sure to rocket the script if you liked it, this helps me know which of my scripts are the most useful)
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)Indicator Overview
This indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:
Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.
Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.
To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.
Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.
How To View The Chart
The key principle of this tool is in the ratio between market cap and Bitcoin investors taking profit.
When market cap rises much faster than profit taking we see that the market is overheating, one could say due to investor greed (red band). For the strategic investor such times have historically been favourable to take profit.
We can break down different percentages of Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss to determine what stage of the market we are in. This can be advantageous for the long term strategic investor.
Created By
Tamas Blummer, Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet
SPY 4 Hour Swing TraderThe purpose of this script is to spot 4 hour pivots that indicate ~30 trading day swings. As VIX starts to drop options trading will get more boring and as we get back on the bull and can benefit from swing trading strategy. Swing trading doesn't make a whole lot of sense when VIX is above 28. Seems to get best results on 4 hour chart for this one. This indicator spots a go long opportunity when the 5 ema crosses the 13 ema on the 4 hour along with the RSI > 50 and the ADX > 20 and Stoichastic values (smoothed line < 80 or line < 90) and close > last candle close and the True Range < 6. It also spots uses a couple different means to determine when to exit the trade. Sell condition is primarily when the 13 ema crosses the 5 ema and the MACD line crosses below the signal line and the smoothed Stoichastic appears oversold (greater than 60) and slop of RSI < -.2. Stop Losses and Take Profits are configurable in Inputs along with ability to include short trades plus other MACD and Stoichastic settings. If a stop loss is encountered the trade will close. Also once twice the expected move is encountered partial profits will taken and stop losses and take profits will be re-established based on most recent close. Also a VIX above 28 will trigger any open positions to close. If trying to use this for something other than SPXL it is best to update stop losses and take profit percentages and check backtest results to ensure proper levels have been selected and the script gives satisfactory results.
SPY 1 Hour Swing TraderThe purpose of this script is to spot 1 hour pivots that indicate ~5 to 6 trading day swings. Results indicate that swings are held approximately 5 to 6 trading days on average, over the last 6 years. This indicator spots a go long opportunity when the 5 ema crosses the 13 ema on the 1 hour along with the RSI > 50. It also spots uses a couple different means to determine when to exit the trade. Sell condition is primarily when the 13 ema crosses the 5 ema and the MACD line crosses below the signal line and the smoothed Stoichastic appears oversold (greater than 60). Stop Losses and Take Profits are configurable in Inputs along with ability to include short trades plus other MACD and Stoichastic settings. If a stop loss is encountered the trade will close. Also once twice the expected move is encountered partial profits will taken and stop losses and take profits will be re-established based on most recent close. Once long trades are exited, short trades will be initiated if recent conditions appeared oversold and input option for short trading is enabled. If trying to use this for something other than SPXL it is best to update stop losses and take profit percentages and check backtest results to ensure proper levels have been selected and the script gives satisfactory results.
BTCUSD Price prediction based on central bank liquidityIn recent months the idea that Bitcoin prices are increasingly linked to liquidity provided by central banks has gained strength. Multiple opinion leaders in the bitcoin space have shared their thoughts to explain why this is happening and why it makes sense. Some of these people I'm talking about are Preston Pysh, Dr. Jeff Ross, Steven McClurg, Lynn Alden among others.
The reality is that the correlation between market liquidity, measured as Assets held by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central bank, and Bitcoin prices is high. This made me wonder whether a regression between "market liquidity" and BTCUSD prices made sense in order to understand where Bitcoin prices are in relation to the liquidity in the market. After several trials I ended up fitting a polynomial regression of degree 5 between Market Liquidity and BTCUSD prices since 2013. This regression resulted in r-squared value of 90.93%. I initially visualized the results in python notebooks but then I thought it would be cool to be able to see them in real-time in tradingview.
That's where this script comes handy...
This script takes the coefficients and intercept from the polynomial regression I built and applies them to the "market_liquidity" index. In addition, it adds upper and lower bound lines to the prediction based on a 95% confidence interval. As you will see, particularly since 2020, the price of bitcoin has rarely been above or below the lines representing the 95% confidence interval. When price has actually crossed these lines it's been in moments where Bitcoin was highly overbought or oversold. Therefore this indicator could be used to understand when it's a good moment to enter or exit the market based on central bank fundamentals.
Here's the detailed step-by-step description of what the script does
1) It defines the coefficients obtained from running the regression betweeen "market liquidity" and BTCUSD. Market liquidity is defined as:
Market liquidity = FRED:WALCL + FX_IDX:JPYUSD*FRED:JPNASSETS + FX:EURUSD*FRED:ECBASSETSW - FRED:RRPONTSYD - FRED:WTREGEN
2) It defines a scale factor. The reason for this is that coefficients from the regression are very small numbers, given the huge numbers of the value of assets held by central banks. Pinescript doesn't support numbers with many decimals and rounds them to 0, so the coefficients had to be scaled up in order to be able to calculate the regression results.
3) It calculates market liquity with the formula defined above. Market liquidity is calculated in US Dollars.
4) It calculates the predicted BTCUSD price based on the coefficients and the market liquidity values.
5) It scales down the values by the same factor used to scale the coefficients up
6) It defines the standard deviation of the "potential_btcusd_price_scaled" and the actual BTCUSD prices.
7) It defines upper and lower bounds to the BTCUSD price prediction using a z-score of 1.96, which is equivalent to 95% confidence interval.
8) Lastly it plots the BTCUSD price prediction (orange) and the upper (red) and lower(green) confidence intervals.
The script can be updated as the correlation of BTCUSD to central bank assets changes (the slope values can be updated).
How to use it:
When actual BTCUSD price (blue line in the chart) crosses over the red line (upper bound) or crosses under the green line (lower bound) it should be taken as a sign that the price of BTCUSD may be overvalued or undervalued based on the value of assets held by major central banks.
