Bitcoin Macro Fair Value [Structural]//@version=6
indicator("Bitcoin Macro Fair Value ", overlay=true)
// --- Model Coefficients (Derived from Python Analysis 2019-2025) ---
intercept = input.float(3.156434, "Intercept")
c_m2 = input.float(0.132827, "Real M2 Coef")
c_corp = input.float(0.742593, "Corp Spread Coef")
c_hy = input.float(-0.617968, "HY Spread Coef")
c_dxy = input.float(0.009772, "DXY Coef")
c_real30 = input.float(0.713311, "Real 30Y Coef")
c_be30 = input.float(-1.059273, "Breakeven 30Y Coef")
c_slope = input.float(0.402220, "Slope 10Y-2Y Coef")
// --- Data Fetching ---
m2 = request.security("FRED:M2SL", "M", close)
cpi = request.security("FRED:CPIAUCSL", "M", close)
real_m2 = m2 / cpi
corp = request.security("FRED:BAMLC0A0CM", "D", close)
hy = request.security("FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2", "D", close)
dxy = request.security("TVC:DXY", "D", close)
real30 = request.security("FRED:DFII30", "D", close)
nom30 = request.security("FRED:DGS30", "D", close)
be30 = nom30 - real30
nom10 = request.security("FRED:DGS10", "D", close)
nom2 = request.security("FRED:DGS2", "D", close)
slope = nom10 - nom2
// --- Calculation ---
log_fv = intercept + (c_m2 * real_m2) + (c_corp * corp) + (c_hy * hy) + (c_dxy * dxy) + (c_real30 * real30) + (c_be30 * be30) + (c_slope * slope)
fair_value = math.exp(log_fv)
plot(fair_value, "Macro Fair Value", color=color.new(color.blue, 0), linewidth=2)
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Bitcoin Cycles Halvins/Tops/Bottoms By CrBeThis Script shows you the actual Bitcoin tops and bottoms dates.
Bitcoin Power Law Corridor + Z-score
This script visualizes the long-term Bitcoin Power Law Corridor, a conceptual model originally discussed by Harold Christopher Burger, and enhances it with a logarithmic Z-Score framework.
The indicator plots Bitcoin’s long-term regression curve together with estimated resistance and support bands based on power-law relationships between price and time since inception.
The added Z-Score expresses the statistical distance between price and the central regression line, using logarithmic scaling:
Z ≈ 0 → price near its long-term fair-value trajectory.
Z ≈ +2 → price near the lower corridor boundary (historically undervalued region).
Z ≈ −2 → price near the upper corridor boundary (historically overheated region).
This indicator is designed for visual and educational purposes only.
It should not be considered financial advice, a predictive model, or a signal provider.
Users should always combine this tool with other forms of technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to confirm confluence before making any decision.
Bitcoin Lagging (N Days)This indicator overlays Bitcoin’s price on any chart with a user-defined N-day lag. You can select the BTC symbol and timeframe (daily recommended), choose which price source to use (open, high, low, close, hlc3, ohlc4), and shift the series by a chosen number of days. An option to normalize the series to 100 at the first visible value is also available, along with the ability to display the original BTC line for comparison.
It is designed for traders and researchers who want to test lagging relationships between Bitcoin and other assets, observe correlation changes, or visualize how BTC’s past prices might align with current market movements. The lagging is calculated based on daily candles, so even if applied on intraday charts, the shift remains in daily units.
이 지표는 비트코인 가격을 원하는 차트 위에 N일 지연된 상태로 표시해 줍니다. 심볼과 타임프레임(일봉 권장)을 선택할 수 있으며, 가격 소스(시가, 고가, 저가, 종가, hlc3, ohlc4)도 설정 가능합니다. 또한 시리즈를 첫 값 기준으로 100에 맞춰 정규화하거나, 원래의 비트코인 가격선을 함께 표시할 수도 있습니다.
비트코인과 다른 자산 간의 시차 효과를 분석하거나 상관관계 변화를 관찰할 때 유용하게 활용할 수 있습니다. 지연은 일봉 기준으로 계산되므로, 분·시간 차트에 적용해도 항상 일 단위로 반영됩니다.
Bitcoin Cycles IndicatorTrack Bitcoin's cyclical price patterns across multiple timeframes with this cycle analysis tool. The indicator automatically identifies cycle lows and highs, marking them with clear visual labels that show cycle day counts and failed cycle detection.
Key Features:
Multi-Time frame Support - Optimized settings for Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Custom time frames
Cycle Tracking - Identifies and labels cycle lows (green) and highs (red) with day counts
Failed Cycle Detection - Highlights when cycles break below previous lows
Customizable Settings - Adjust cycle lengths, colors, and display options for each timeframe
Info Box - Real-time cycle information display with current cycle day count
Projection Boxes - Visual cycle length projections for better analysis
Perfect for Bitcoin traders and analysts who want to understand market cycles and timing. Works best on Daily charts for short-term cycles and Weekly/Monthly charts for longer-term analysis.
Bitcoin Weekend FadeThis indicator is a tool for setting a bias based on weekend price movements, with the assumption that the crypto market often experiences stronger moves over the weekend due to thinner order books. It helps identify potential fade opportunities, suggesting that price movements from Saturday and Sunday may reverse during the weekdays.
How to use:
Sets a bias based on weekend price action.
Sets a bias based on weekend price action.
Use weekday price action for confirmation before acting on the bias.
Best suited for range-bound markets, where the price tends to revert to the mean.
Avoid fading high-timeframe breakouts, as they often indicate strong trends.
Bitcoin Aggregated Volume Profile «NoaTrader»If you use volume profile for analyzing Bitcoin, you may know that sometimes the decisions of big CEXs like Binance can change the volume of each symbol and so the analysis perceived from the data (which may not be valid anymore); Like when Binance decided to transfer the free transaction fee promotion from BTCUSDT to BTCTUSD pair or the new introduced BTCFDUSD pair with volume market share as much as BTCTUSD after only 1 month (according to the coinmarketcap's data).
This indicator tries to solve that problem for using volume profile. So, it collects all the volumes of different pairs from different exchanges and then uses all of them to calculate the volume profile.
Also, there is an option to compare the current symbols volume to the whole volume profile which is a Boolean option in the settings (the picture above)
The aggregated volume data includes:
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:BTCTUSD
BINANCE:BTCBUSD
BINANCE:BTCFDUSD
BINANCE:BTCDAI
BINANCE:BTCEUR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCEUR
HUOBI:BTCUSDT
KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
KRAKEN:XBTUSD
KRAKEN:XBTEUR
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
BYBIT:BTCUSDT
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
OKX:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin Stalemate IndicatorThe Bitcoin Stalemate Indicator examines periods in the market defined by a combination of high volume and low price volatility. These periods are a bit like a tug-of-war with both sides applying a lot of force but the rope moving very little. Periods of high volume and low volatility suggest both sides of the trade are stuck in a stalemate. This indicator may be useful in identifying psychologically important price levels.
The mechanics of the indicator are fairly simple: the indicator takes the volume and divides it by the candle’s size over it’s close for that same period.
volume / ((high - low) / close)
Candles that move very little but with high volume will produce higher reads and vice versa. Finally a smoothing average is applied to clean up the noise.
Volume profiles from the top 6 exchanges are averaged in order to avoid a single exchange’s popularity acting as an overriding factor. Single exchanges can be isolated but are of lesser use. Heat map functionality is only active when all exchanges are selected.
Bitcoin Scalping Strategy (Sampled with: PMARP+MADRID MA RIBBON)
DISCLAIMER:
THE CONTENT WITHIN THIS STRATEGY IS CREATED FROM TWO INDICATORS CREATED BY TWO PINESCRIPTER'S. THE STRATEGY WAS EXECUTED BY MYSELF AND REVERSE-ENGINEERED TO MEET THE CONDITIONS OF THE INTENDED STRATEGY REQUESTOR. I DO NOT TAKE CREDIT FOR THE CONTENT WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED LINES MADE CLEAR BY MYSELF.
The Sampled Scripts and creators:
PMAR/PMARP by @The_Caretaker Link to original script:
Madrid MA RIBBON BAR by @Madrid Link to original script:
Cheat Code's strategy notes:
This sampled strategy (Requested by @elemy_eth) is one combining previously created studies. I reverse-engineered the local scope for the Madrid moving average color plots and set entry and exit conditions for certain criteria met. This strategy is meant to deliver an extremely high hit rate on a daily time frame. This is made possible because of the very low take profit percentage, during the context of a macro downtrend it is made easier to hit 1-3% scalps which is made visible with the strategy using sampled scripts I created here.
How it works:
Entry Conditions:
-Enter Long's if the lime color conditions are met true using the script detailed by Marid's MA
- No re-entry into positions needs to be met true (this prevents pyramiding of orders due to conditions being met true) applicable to both long and short side entries.
- To increase hit rate and prevent traps both the parameters of rsi being sub 80 and no previously engulfing candles need to be met true to enter a long position.
- Enter Short's if the red color conditions of Madrid's moving average are met true.
- Closing Long positions are typically not met within this indicator, however, it still sometimes triggers if necessary. This consists of a pmarp sub 99 and a position size greater than 0.0
- Closing Short positions are typically not met within this indicator, however, it still sometimes triggers if necessary. This consists of a pmarp over 01 and a position size less than 0.0
- Stop Loss: 27.75% Take Profit: 1% (Which does not trigger on ticks over 1% so you will see average trade profits greater than 1%)
BYBIT:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD
Best Of Luck :)
-CheatCode1
Bitcoin Weekly Support BandsMy first ever attempt at a custom script. I took Benjamin Cowen's concept of the Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band and applied it to the 100 week and 200 week moving averages. I also added in the 300 week sma. I mainly wanted to have all these in one indicator.
Bitcoin Bottom Detector: W TimeframeUse this indicator in the weekly time frame:
One of the most widely used indicators for identifying the Bitcoin market bottom is the 200-week moving average. This indicator works based on the ratio of price to the value of the 200-week moving average. When the indicator enters the lower blue part (overflow area), it indicates the bitcoin is in the bottom of the market.
Bitcoin Price Temperature: Weekly TimeframeUse this oscillator at weekly timeframes:
The Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is an oscillator that models the number of standard deviations the price has moved away from the 4-yr moving average. This seeks to establish a mean reversion model based on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin halving and investment cycles. The BPT bands then establish price levels that coincide with specific standard deviation multiples to identify fair and extreme valuations.
Coined By:
DilutionProof
Interpretation:
Values above 6 indicate extremely high price areas: (TOP OF THE MARKET)
Areas below 0.2 indicate extremely low price areas: (BOTTOM OF THE MARKET)
Bitcoin trend RVI and Emastrategy with two emas and rvi.
Only long positions when fast ema above slow ema when rvi gives entry.
Only short positions when slow ema above fast ema when rvi gives entry.
Bitcoin Spot PremiumPlots the difference between the Bitcoin Spot price and the average of 7 Futures prices.
The idea being that Spot leads the market, and when Spot is priced significantly higher than Futures, price should increase. And vice-versa.
Possible uses:
Sharp changes could indicate a reversal is coming
A consistently large premium can be used as additional validation of trend continuation
Divergences may help identify trend exhaustion
If you find a strategy that works well with this indicator, I'd love to know. Enjoy!
Bitcoin Golden Bottom Oscillator (MZ BTC Oscillator)This indicator uses Elliot Wave Oscillator Methodology applied on "BTC Golden Bottom with Adaptive Moving Average" and Relative Strength Index of Resulted EVO to form an Oscillator to detect trend health in Bitcoin price. Ticker is set to "INDEX : BTCUSD" on 1D timeframe.
Methodology
Oscillator uses Adaptive Moving Average with 1 year of length, Minor length of 50 and Major length of 100 to mark AMA as Golden Bottom.
Percentage Elliot Wave Oscillator is calculated between BTC price and AMA.
Relative Strength Index of EVO is calculated to detect trend strength and divergence detection.
Hull Moving Average of resulted RSI is used to smoothen the Oscillator.
Oscillator is hard coded to 'INDEX:BTCUSD' ticker on 1d so it can be used on any other chart and on any other timeframe.
Color Schemes
Bright Red background color indicates that price has left top Fib multiple ATR band and possibly go for top.
Light Red background color indicates that price has left 2nd top Fib multiple ATR band and possibly go for local top.
Lime background color indicates that price has entered lowest band indicating local bottom.
Bright Green background color indicates that price is approximately resting on Golden Bottom i.e. AMA.
Oscillator color is set to gradient for easy directional adaption.
BTC Golden Bottom with Adaptive Moving Average
Bitcoin Risk Metric IIThesis: Bitcoin's price movements can be (dubiously) characterized by functional relationships between moving averages and standard deviations. These movements can be normalized into a risk metric through normalization functions of time. This risk metric may be able to quantify a long term "buy low, sell high" strategy.
This risk metric is the average of three normalized metrics:
1. (btc - 4 yma)/ (std dev)
2. ln(btc / 20 wma)
3. (50 dma)/(50 wma)
* btc = btc price
* yma = yearly moving average of btc, wma = weekly moving average of btc, dma = daily moving average of btc
* std dev = std dev of btc
Important note:
Historical data for this metric is only shown back until 2014, because of the nature of the 1st mentioned metric. The other two metrics produce a value back until 2011. A previous, less robust, version of metric 2 is posted on my TradingView as well.
Bitcoin Risk Indicator (Daily)This indicator calculates the risk of buying and selling BTC, if the risk is reaching the upper boundaries of 0.8 to 1 then BTC is either getting close to a market cycle top or is far over extended.
If BTC is below 0.4 then this inidicates the least amount of Risk to buy BTC.
Bitcoin Halving EventsPast dates for the bitcoin halvings are marked with vertical yellow lines and labeled with the date and cycle number.
BTC COT Delta BBitcoin CME COT Delta Strategy
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Reading 4 largest long positions and 4 largest short positions, this script uses (shorts - longs) to produce a long/short signal.
• When delta <= buy threshold, a "long" signal will appear on the chart.
• When shorts >= sell threshold, a "short" signal will appear on the chart.
To see the indicator below, since it's not possible to mix the two, use this script:
** This is not a trading advice, it's for research purposes only. Do not trade based upon these signals.
Bitcoin Investor ToolSimple and ugly long MA ribbon, Try at different intervals, but for me it's a good way to eyeball where we are currently in the bitcoin cycle.
Bitcoin Bubble Strength IndexFor those who interested, here is a Bitcoin Strength Index source code. I used it on weekly chart with params (close,28). And only with Bitcoin . And only during bull run. It shows how far price went off the particular moving average during bubble run (i.e. being above BB). Weekly MA 28 is approximately daily ma 200.
The physical meaning of this indicator is to show current bull rally "speed".
Bitcoin Bullish Percent IndexHello Traders,
This is Bitcoin Bullish Percent Index script. First lets talk about what the Bullish Percent Index and how it is calculated:
"The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of securities on Point & Figure Buy Signals, Developed by Abe Cohen in the mid-1950s. Because a security is either on a P&F Buy or Sell Signal, there is no ambiguity when it comes to P&F charts. This makes BPI a straightforward indicator with clearly defined signals."
The calculation is straightforward and simple: (Number of securities on P&F Buy signals) / (Total number of securities)
Here you can see what the P&F buy signal is:
In this script I choose 40 cryptos that is correlated ( as I see ) with BTC (including BtcUsdt). in the first part the script creates P&F chart for each security and check if there is Buy or Sell signal and sum the buy signals if there is. in the second part it creates P&F chart by using the P&F buy/sell signals coming from the securities P&F chart. because of complicated calculation the script may need a few seconds to load.
in the first part reversal value is 3 by default but you can set different values as reversal. sometimes I got better results with reversal = 5.
in BPI part reversal = 3 is used. so each box represents 2% (each X or O is a box). And this means it takes at least a 6% move in BPI for a reversal. the Bullish Percent Index favors the bulls when above 50% and the bears when below 50%. The bulls have the edge when over 50% of stocks are on a P&F Buy Signal. BPI is also considered overbought when above 70% and oversold when below 30%. BPI can move between 0 and 100.
Because of 40 securities are used in the script and all different prices, it uses Percentage scaling only. it can calculate the Percentage automatically by using the time frame of the chart or you can set it as you wish.
The Signals coming from BPI:
Bull Alert: BPI is below 30% and then forms a new column of X's (rises)
Bear Alert: BPI is above 70% and then forms a new column of O's that decline below 70%.
Bull Confirmed: BPI is on a P&F buy signal and in a column of X's (rising).
Bear Confirmed: BPI is on a P&F sell signal and in a column of O's (falling).
Bull Correction: BPI is on a P&F buy signal, but currently falling (column of O's).
Bear Correction: BPI is on a P&F sell signal, but currently rising (column of X's).
If you are not familiar with Bullish Percent Index you better search it on the net to get more info, you can find a lot of articles and web sites about BPI.
as I remember I developed the script 6-7 months ago and today I had chance to publish it as it was
Enjoy!






















