twisted SMA strategy [4h] Hello
I would like to introduce a very simple strategy that uses a combination of 3 simple moving averages ( SMA 4 , SMA 9 , SMA 18 )
this is a classic combination showing the most probable trend directions
Crosses were marked on the basis of the color of the candles (bulish cross - blue / bearish cross - maroon)
ma 100 was used to determine the main trend, which is one of the most popular 4-hour candles
We define main trend while price crosses SMA100 ( for bullish trend I use green candle color )
The long position strategy was created in combination of 3 moving averages with Kaufman's adaptive moving average by alexgrover
The strategy is very accurate and is easy to use indicators
the strategy uses only Buy (Long) signals in a combination of crossovers of the SMA 4, SMA 9, SMA 18 and the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average.
As a signal to close a long position, only the opposite signal of the intersection of 3 different moving averages is used
the current strategy is recommended for higher time zones (4h +) due to the strength of the closing candles, which translates into signal strength
works fascinatingly well for long-term bullish market assets (for example 4h Apple, Tesla charts)
Enjoy and trade safe ;)
Cerca negli script per "bitcoin"
HASHRATE and MINER REVENUEThis script uses daily data points from Quandl which measure Bitcoin mining hashrate, and miner revenue, and averages the two. The two data sets are fairly zigzaggy, so to smooth the data I am use a John Ehlers' filter to reduce the noise. Why did I combine the two? Both have correlation to BTC price action, and by combining hashrate and revenue, I believe it produces a stronger and more accurate signal. At times when the background is green (also displayed with a green square at the bottom), conditions are good in Bitcoinland with miner revenue/hashrate going up. No color in the background and no dot, means the combined miner revenue and hashrate indicator is dropping, but nothing to get worried about. Seeing red dots on the bottom along with a red background signals a rapidly dropping rate of hashrate/miner revenue, and with a fairly strong correlation to the Bitcoin price. Not every red zone foretells a drop in the Bitcoin price, but a significant number of them do. I wrote this script as an early warning system for when to move out of Bitcoin. Use at your own risk. Feel free to modify this code to suit your personal needs. Please only use on BTC /USD pairs with 1D bars. Since there is only one data point per day published by Quandl, it will not give accurate data for shorter timeframes. Enjoy.
GBTC holdings USD market valueThis script estimates GBTC bitcoins per share, rather than hardcoding as in other scripts. Its result is an estimate of GBTC holdings USD market value.
Per share bitcoin estimates are adjusted by 2.0% / 365 per day from 2019 year end holdings. Calendar year 2019 ending bitcoins and shares were 261,192 bitcoins and 269,445,300 shares. From the 2019 Form 10-K: 'The Trust’s only ordinary recurring expense is the Sponsor’s Fee. The Sponsor’s Fee accrues daily in U.S. dollars at an annual rate of 2.0% of the Bitcoin Holdings.. The Sponsor’s Fee is payable in Bitcoins to the Sponsor monthly in arrears.'
No attempt is made to account for leap years.
Per share bitcoin estimate is converted to USD market value by multiplying by the simple average BTCUSD price at Coinbase and Bitstamp. Grayscale uses the TradeBlock XBX index, a volume weighted average of Coinbase Pro, Kraken, LMAX Digital and Bitstamp prices.
Spot checks vs archive.org captures of daily bitcoins per share and the chart on Grayscale's site:
The estimate for market close January 22 2021 is 0.00094899 bitcoins per share, the published datum on Grayscale's web site was 0.00094898. The estimate matches at 20:30 rather than at 16:00.
The estimate for December 31 2018 is 0.000988965 vs a published 0.00098895.
The estimate for December 29 2017 market value is $14.58 vs $14.65.
The estimate for December 30 2016 market value is $0.99 vs $0.98.
The estimate for January 4 2016 market value is $0.46 vs $0.45.
No estimates before 2016.
The default style is to draw a blue line with two thirds transparency outside market hours and for first/last minutes of trading, switching to daily or greater periodicity hides this.
No warranty is expressed or implied , I am not a lawyer, etc etc etc.
This is not investing advice . Always do your own due diligence .
Active Addresses Z-ScoreActive Addresses Z-Score Indicator
The Active Addresses Z-Score Indicator is a fundamental analysis tool designed to evaluate the relationship between Bitcoin network activity and its price movements over a specified period. This indicator aims to provide insights into whether the market is showing signs of increasing or decreasing interest in Bitcoin, based on its network usage and activity.
How to Read the Indicator
Orange Line (Price Z-Score):
This line represents the Z-Score of the price change over a defined period (e.g., 28 days). The Z-Score normalizes the price change by comparing it to the historical mean and standard deviation, essentially measuring how far the current price change is from the average.
A positive Z-Score indicates that the price change is above the historical average (a bullish signal), while a negative Z-Score means the price change is below the historical average (a bearish signal).
Gray Line (Active Addresses Z-Score):
This line represents the Z-Score of the change in active addresses over the same period. The Z-Score here normalizes the change in the number of active Bitcoin addresses by comparing it to historical data.
A positive Z-Score suggests that the number of active addresses is increasing more than usual, which can be a sign of increased market activity and potential interest in Bitcoin.
A negative Z-Score suggests that active addresses are decreasing more than usual, which may indicate reduced interest or usage of Bitcoin.
Upper and Lower Threshold Lines:
The upper and lower threshold lines (set by the user) act as Z-Score boundaries. If either the price Z-Score or the active address Z-Score exceeds the upper threshold, it can signal an overbought or overactive condition. Similarly, if the Z-Score falls below the lower threshold, it could indicate an oversold or underactive condition.
These thresholds are customizable by the user, allowing for flexible interpretation based on market conditions.
Indicator Calculation
Price Change Calculation:
The percentage change in the Bitcoin price over a specified lookback period (e.g., 28 days) is calculated as:
Price Change
=
Close
−
Close
Close
Price Change=
Close
Close−Close
This shows the relative price movement during the specified period.
Active Address Change Calculation:
Similarly, the percentage change in active addresses is calculated as:
Active Address Change
=
Active Addresses
−
Active Addresses
Active Addresses
Active Address Change=
Active Addresses
Active Addresses−Active Addresses
This shows the relative change in the number of active Bitcoin addresses over the same period.
Z-Score Calculation:
The Z-Score for both the price and active address changes is calculated as:
𝑍
=
X
−
𝜇
𝜎
Z=
σ
X−μ
Where:
X is the current change (price or active addresses),
μ (mu) is the mean (average) of the historical data over the lookback period,
σ (sigma) is the standard deviation of the historical data.
This Z-Score tells you how far the current value deviates from its historical average, normalized by the volatility (standard deviation).
Smoothing (Optional):
A simple moving average (SMA) is applied to smooth out the Z-Score values to reduce noise and provide a clearer trend.
What the Indicator Does
Signals of Bullish or Bearish Market Behavior:
The Z-Score of Price tells you how strong or weak the price movement is relative to its past performance.
The Z-Score of Active Addresses reveals whether more users are interacting with the Bitcoin network, which can be an indication of growing interest or market activity.
When both the price and active address Z-Scores are high, it may indicate a strong bull market, while low Z-Scores may point to a bear market or decreasing interest.
Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
The upper and lower threshold lines help you visualize when the Z-Scores for either price or active addresses have reached extreme values, signaling potential overbought or oversold conditions.
For example, if the Price Z-Score exceeds the upper threshold (e.g., +2), it might indicate that the price has risen too quickly, and a correction may be due. Conversely, if it falls below the lower threshold (e.g., -2), it may indicate a potential buying opportunity.
Important Note on Activity and Price Movements:
After Rapid Price Increases:
A sharp increase in Bitcoin’s price followed by a spike in active addresses can be interpreted as a bearish signal. High network activity after a rapid price surge might indicate that investors are taking profits or that speculative interest is peaking, potentially signaling an upcoming correction or reversal.
After Extreme Price Declines:
Conversely, high network activity after a significant price drop may indicate a bottoming signal. A surge in active addresses during a price decline could suggest increased buying interest and potential accumulation, signaling that the market may be finding support and a reversal may be imminent.
Customization and Flexibility
The lookback period (default: 28 days) can be adjusted to suit different trading strategies or time horizons.
The smoothing length (default: 7 periods) allows for smoothing the Z-Score, making it easier to detect longer-term trends and reduce noise.
The upper and lower threshold values are fully customizable to adjust the indicator’s sensitivity to market conditions.
Conclusion
The Active Addresses Z-Score Indicator combines network activity with price data to give you a deeper understanding of the Bitcoin market. By analyzing the relationship between price changes and active address changes, this indicator helps you assess whether the market is experiencing unusual activity or if Bitcoin is trending in an extreme overbought or oversold condition.
It is a powerful tool for fundamental analysis and can complement traditional technical indicators for a more comprehensive trading strategy.
Regime Filter IndicatorRegime Filter – Crypto Market Trend Indicator
📊 Overview
The Regime Filter is a powerful market analysis indicator designed specifically for crypto trading. It helps traders identify whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase by analyzing key assets in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and the Altcoin Market (TOTAL3). The indicator compares these assets against their respective Simple Moving Averages (SMA) to determine the overall market regime, allowing traders to make more informed decisions.
🔍 How It Works
The Regime Filter evaluates three main components to determine the market's sentiment:
1. BTC Dominance (BTC.D) vs. 40 SMA (Medium Timeframe)
The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is compared to its 40-period SMA on a mid-timeframe (e.g.,
1-hour). If BTC.D is below the 40 SMA, it indicates that altcoins are performing well relative
to Bitcoin, suggesting a bullish altcoin market. If BTC.D is above the 40 SMA, Bitcoin is
gaining dominance, indicating a potential bearish phase for altcoins.
2. TOTAL3 Market Cap vs. 100 SMA (Medium Timeframe)
The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except
Bitcoin and Ethereum, is compared to its 100-period SMA. A bullish signal occurs when TOTAL3
is above the 100 SMA, indicating strength in altcoins, while a bearish signal occurs when
TOTAL3 is below the 100 SMA, signaling a potential weakness in the altcoin market.
3. BTC Price vs. 200 SMA (Higher Timeframe)
The current Bitcoin price is compared to its 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on a
higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour). A bullish signal is given when the BTC price is above the 200
SMA, and a bearish signal when it's below.
🟢 Bullish Market Conditions
The market is considered bullish when:
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is below the 40 SMA, suggesting altcoins are gaining momentum.
- TOTAL3 Market Cap is above the 100 SMA, signaling strength in the altcoin market.
- BTC price is above the 200 SMA, indicating an uptrend in Bitcoin.
In these conditions, the background turns green 🟢, and a "Bullish" label is displayed on the chart.
🔴 Bearish Market Conditions
The market is considered bearish when:
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is above the 40 SMA, indicating Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins.
- TOTAL3 Market Cap is below the 100 SMA, signaling weakness in altcoins.
- BTC price is below the 200 SMA, indicating a downtrend in Bitcoin.
In these conditions, the background turns red 🔴, and a "Bearish" label appears on the chart.
⚙ Customization Options
- The Regime Filter offers flexibility for traders:
- Enable or Disable Specific SMAs: Customize the indicator by enabling or disabling the 200 SMA for Bitcoin, the 40 SMA for BTC Dominance, and the 100 SMA for TOTAL3.
- Adjust Timeframes: Choose the timeframes for each of the moving averages to suit your preferred trading strategy.
- Real-Time Data Adjustments: The indicator updates in real-time to reflect current market conditions, ensuring timely analysis.
📈 Best Use Cases
- Trend Confirmation: The Regime Filter is ideal for confirming the market's overall trend,
helping traders to align their positions with the dominant market sentiment.
- Trade Entry/Exit Signals: Use the indicator to identify favorable entry or exit points based on
whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase.
- Market Overview: Gain a quick understanding of the broader crypto market, with a focus on
Bitcoin and altcoins, to make more strategic decisions.
⚠️ Important Notes
Trend-Following Indicator: The Regime Filter is a trend-following tool, meaning it works best in strong trending markets. It may not perform well in choppy, sideways markets.
Risk Management: This indicator is designed to assist in identifying market trends, but it does not guarantee profits. Always apply sound risk management strategies and use additional indicators when making trading decisions.
Not a Profit Guarantee: While this indicator can help identify potential market trends, no trading tool or strategy guarantees profits. Please trade responsibly and ensure that your decisions are based on comprehensive analysis and risk tolerance.
Master Litecoin Market Cap Network Value ModelMaster Litecoin Market Cap Network Value Model
This indicator visualizes Litecoin's network fundamentals compared to Bitcoin, developed by @masterbtcltc. By analyzing various on-chain metrics and market data, this script helps users evaluate Litecoin’s intrinsic value relative to Bitcoin.
Key Features:
Network Metrics:
NewAddressValueModel: Tracks the ratio of new addresses in Litecoin compared to Bitcoin.
TotalAddressValueModel: Compares total addresses across the two networks.
Transaction & Volume Metrics:
TXValueModel: Compares transaction activity.
VolumeValueModel and VolumeUSDValueModel: Analyzes transaction volumes in native units and USD.
Usage & Adoption:
ActiveValueModel: Tracks the ratio of active addresses between Litecoin and Bitcoin.
RetailValueModel: Measures retail adoption strength in the Litecoin network.
Blockchain & Holder Data:
BlockValueModel: Compares block sizes.
NonZeroModel: Evaluates addresses with non-zero balances.
HodlerModel: Compares long-term holders between Litecoin and Bitcoin.
Averaged Insights:
AverageValueModel: Aggregates all metrics for a complete view of network valuation.
Visual Design:
Blue Themed Metrics: Network value models are displayed in a uniform blue color with a line thickness of 4 and 25% transparency for clarity.
Distinct Price Plot: Litecoin’s price is plotted in yellow, with a thin line (width 2) and no transparency, keeping it visually separate.
Use Cases:
Ideal for traders, investors, and enthusiasts aiming to:
Identify Litecoin’s market trends.
Detect periods of undervaluation or overvaluation.
Gain deeper insights into Litecoin’s network fundamentals.
Important Instruction: To ensure accurate results, plot this indicator on VANTAGE:LTCUSD * GLASSNODE:LTC_SUPPLY. This ensures alignment with the data sources and guarantees the script performs as intended.
Feel free to explore, use, and share this open-source script to better understand Litecoin’s value potential!
Cabal Dev IndicatorThis is a TradingView Pine Script (version 6) that creates a technical analysis indicator called the "Cabal Dev Indicator." Here's what it does:
1. Core Functionality:
- It calculates a modified version of the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), which is a momentum indicator that shows where the current close is relative to the high/low range over a period
- The indicator combines elements of stochastic oscillator calculations with exponential moving averages (EMA)
2. Key Components:
- Uses configurable input parameters for:
- Percent K Length (default 15)
- Percent D Length (default 3)
- EMA Signal Length (default 15)
- Smoothing Period (default 5)
- Overbought level (default 40)
- Oversold level (default -40)
3. Calculation Method:
- Calculates the highest high and lowest low over the specified period
- Finds the difference between current close and the midpoint of the high-low range
- Applies EMA smoothing to both the range and relative differences
- Generates an SMI value and further smooths it using a simple moving average (SMA)
- Creates an EMA signal line based on the smoothed SMI
4. Visual Output:
- Plots the smoothed SMI line in green
- Plots an EMA signal line in red
- Shows overbought and oversold levels as gray horizontal lines
- Fills the areas above the overbought level with light red
- Fills the areas below the oversold level with light green
This indicator appears designed to help traders identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market, as well as momentum shifts, which could be used for trading decisions.
Would you like me to explain any specific part of the indicator in more detail?
BTC Seasonality Strategy (Weekly)This strategy identifies potential weekend opportunities in Bitcoin (BTC) markets by leveraging the concept of seasonality, entering a position at a predefined time and day, and exiting at a specified time and day.
Key Features
Customizable Time and Day Selection:
Users can select the entry and exit days and corresponding times (in EST).
Directional Flexibility:
The strategy allows traders to choose between long or short positions.
TradingView Compliance:
The script adheres to TradingView's house rules, avoids overly complex conditions, and provides clear user-configurable inputs.
How It Works
The script determines the current weekday and hour in EST, converting TradingView's UTC time for accurate comparisons.
If the current day and hour match the selected entry conditions, a trade (long or short) is opened.
The position is closed when the current day and hour match the specified exit conditions.
Theoretical Basis
Market Seasonality:
The concept of seasonality in financial markets refers to predictable patterns based on time, such as weekends or specific days of the week. Studies have shown that cryptocurrency markets exhibit unique trading behaviors during weekends due to reduced institutional activity and higher retail participation behavioral Biases**:
Retail traders often dominate weekend markets, potentially causing predictable inefficiencies .
Reverences**
Baur, D. G., Hong, K., & Lee, A. D. (2018). Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 54, 177–189.
Urquhart, A. (2016). The inefficiency of Bitcoin. Economics Letters, 148, 80–82.
Altcoin Total Average Divergence (YavuzAkbay)The "Average Price and Divergence" indicator is a strong tool built exclusively for cryptocurrency traders who understand the significance of comparing altcoins to Bitcoin (BTC). While traditional research frequently focusses on the value of cryptocurrencies against fiat currencies such as the US dollar, this indicator switches the focus to the value of altcoins against Bitcoin itself, allowing you to detect potential market opportunities and divergences.
The indicator allows you to compare the price of an altcoin to Bitcoin (e.g., ETHBTC, SOLBTC), which is critical for determining how well an altcoin performs against the main cryptocurrency. This is especially important for investors who expect Bitcoin's price will continue to rise logarithmically and want to ensure that their altcoin holdings retain or expand in market capitalisation compared to Bitcoin.
The indicator computes the average price of the chosen cryptocurrency relative to Bitcoin over the viewable portion of the chart. This average acts as a benchmark, indicating the normal value around which the altcoin's price moves.
The primary objective of this indicator is to calculate and plot the divergence, which is the difference between the altcoin's current price relative to Bitcoin and its average value. This divergence can reveal probable overbought or oversold conditions, allowing traders to make better decisions about entry and exit points.
The divergence is represented as a histogram, with bars representing the magnitude of the difference between the current and average prices. Positive values indicate that the altcoin is trading above its average value in comparison to Bitcoin, whereas negative values indicate that it is trading below its average.
The indicator automatically adjusts to the chart's visible range, ensuring that the average price and divergence are always calculated using the most relevant data. This makes the indicator extremely sensitive to changes in the chart view and market conditions.
How to Use:
A significant positive divergence may imply that the cryptocurrency is overbought in comparison to Bitcoin and is headed for a correction. A significant negative divergence, on the other hand, may indicate that the cryptocurrency has been oversold and is cheap in comparison to Bitcoin.
Tracking how an altcoin's price deviates from its average relative to Bitcoin can provide insights about the market's opinion towards that altcoin. Persistent positive divergence may suggest high market confidence, whilst constant negative divergence may imply a lack of interest or eroding fundamentals.
Use divergence data to better time your trades, either by entering when a cryptocurrency is discounted in comparison to its average (negative divergence) or departing when it is overpriced (positive divergence). This allows you to capture value as the price returns to its mean.
Ideal For:
Cryptocurrency Traders who want to understand how altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin rather than just against fiat currencies.
Long-term Investors looking to ensure their altcoin investments are maintaining or growing their value relative to Bitcoin.
Market Analysts interested in identifying potential reversals or continuations in altcoin prices based on divergence from their average value relative to Bitcoin.
Altcoins capitalization histogram [peregringlk]This script superseeds "Other altcoins BTC capitalization histogram". The previous versions was a bit confusing in my opinion and lacked some generalization, so I'm now publishing this improved version.
It shows 6 pieces of info:
- Green columns: BTC price change for that day.
- Red bars: Altcoins capitalization change for that day, measured in bitcoins (altcoins_USD_capitalization / BTCUSD)
- Green/red background: green if that day the USD capitalization change was a gain, and red if it was a loss.
- Green line: accum BTC price change for the selected last days.
- Red line: accum altcoin capitalization change measured in BTC for the selected days.
- Dotted blue sequence: accum altcoin USD capitalization change for the selected days.
The base line of the histogram is 1 instead of 0, because I'm showing the price changes as multipliers (price change rates), so if there have been a +20% market movement, the calculated value will be 1.2, and if there have been a -20% market movement, then the value will be 0.8. 1 means no movement (preserved price/capitalization). Price and capitalization changes will be calculated using candle closes.
About the accumulated price changes, it will calculate the accumulated multiplication of the corresponding price change multipliers. For example, if you have set you want 3 days for the accumulation rates, and the last three days saw a -20%, +10% and +15% price/capitalization changes, the current value for the line will be 0.8*1.1*1.15 = 1.0120, or a +1.2% price change respect to the day before yesterday.
By default, if you are looking any ALTBTC market (for example, ETHBTC), instead of showing the USD and BTC capitalization of all alts, it will take the BTC and USD prices of the current market (the USD price will be calculated as ALTBTC * BTCUSD; and the BTCUSD price will be taken from BITSTAMP, the one with the longest BTC history I know in tradingview). If you are looking any other markets that is not paired with BTC, then it will take the USD capitalization of all altcoins, and the BTC capitalization will be calculated as altcoins_USD_capitalization / BTCUSD (from BITSTAMP as well).
Also, remember that, in both cases (alts capitalization or price), the graph will consistently respect the following rule:
- btc_usd_price_change * alt/capitalization_btc_price_change = alt_usd_price_change.
That applies for both the green/red bars respect to the background, and the green/red line respect to the blue dotted sequence.
Lastly, you may want to know if, in case btc price and altbtc price or capitalization go in opposite directions, who gain the battle? For example, if BTCUSD moved +20%, and an ALTBTC price moved -20%, the result is a loss, because 1.2*0.8 = 0.96, so the ALTUSD price or capitalization moved -4% (remember that, for preserving the USD value, if today's bitcoin change rate is x, the altbtc change rate must be 1/x; so for a -20% BTCUSD price movement, there must be at least a +25% ALTBTC price change to don't loss USD value, because 1/0.8 = 1.25). The background is what shows you that: if the background is green, it means that for that day there was a total USD gain of value, and when it's red, then it was a loss of USD value.
You can customize the following things:
- Accum change rate interval: the "selected days". By default 7.
- Take alts-capitalization?: By default unmarked. The effect when is unmarked is what I have explained in the previous paragraph. If you mark it, then it will use the USD_capitalization of all alts no matter what market you are looking right now.
- Which capitalization do you want? There are three options, that applies when "Take alts-capitalization?" is marked, or otherwise, when you are not looking a BTC-paired market.
- - - All-alts (default option): take CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 security as reference Alts-capitalization, which represents all altcoins.
- - - Other-alts: take CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS security as reference Alts-capitalization, which represents all altcoin except the 9 most capitalized alts.
- - - Big-alts: take CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 - CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS as reference Alts-capitalization, which represenst only the 9 most capitalized alts.
The idea of this script is:
A) Figuring out what is causing a USD value gain or loss, the alts market movements, or the BTC price change. So you can spot if some altcoin, or all altcoins combined, are gaining or loosing value by themselves or because of bitcoin.
B) Trying to spot or discover some patterns that allows you to identify altseasons. Once an altseason has been developed, the chart will show it in a pretty obvious way (massive red line bells and dotted blue lines with very high values during a period of various weeks). The hard problem is to spot it in advance, and maybe this graph can help.
NUPL Z-ScoreThis indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:
Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.
Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.
To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.
Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.
NUPL-Z For Loop🧠 Overview
NUPL-Z For Loop is a trend-following indicator built on Bitcoin’s on-chain Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. It uses a Z-scored transformation of NUPL and a custom loop-based scoring system to measure the consistency of directional movement. Rather than identifying tops and bottoms, this tool is designed to track sustained trends and filter out short-term noise, making it ideal for momentum-aligned strategies.
🧩 Key Features
Loop-Based Trend Logic: Assesses trend strength by summing the number of upward vs. downward moves in Z-scored NUPL across a custom lookback.
Z-Score Normalization: Applies long-term statistical normalization to NUPL to emphasize deviation from average behavior over time.
Threshold-Based Regime Shifts: Custom input thresholds define when trend strength is significant enough to trigger long or short signals.
Directional Market State Tracking: Internally tracks bullish, bearish, or neutral conditions to guide trend entries.
BTC-Focused On-Chain Analysis: Tailored specifically for Bitcoin using Market Cap and Realized Cap inputs.
🔍 How It Works
NUPL Calculation: Derived as the percentage of net unrealized profit relative to market cap: (MC - RMC) / MC * 100.
Z-Scoring: NUPL is normalized using a rolling mean and standard deviation over a long window (default 1300 days) to create a smoothed trend signal.
Directional Loop: A custom loop iterates from the start_loop to the end_loop, comparing the current Z-score to past values.
Each instance where NUPL_Z > NUPL_Z adds +1 to the score; otherwise, it subtracts -1.
This cumulative score reflects how consistently NUPL-Z has been trending.
Signal Logic:
Long signal when loop score exceeds long_threshold.
Short signal when score falls below short_threshold.
CD State Engine: Maintains the current trend regime (1 for long, -1 for short), which drives plot coloring and overlays.
🔁 Use Cases & Applications
Momentum Trend Filter: Detects and confirms sustained directional strength in BTC’s profit/loss positioning.
Noise Suppression: Avoids reactive signals from one-off spikes or dips in NUPL by requiring a consistent trend before confirming bias.
Best Suited for BTC: Designed specifically for Bitcoin’s price and on-chain structure, using its unique NUPL dynamics.
✅ Conclusion
NUPL-Z For Loop transforms a traditionally mean-reverting indicator into a trend-following signal engine. By scoring the consistency of movement in normalized NUPL, this tool identifies trend strength rather than reversal potential — providing more reliable context for momentum-aligned trades on Bitcoin.
⚠️ Disclaimer
The content provided by this indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes financial or investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including the potential loss of capital. Always backtest and apply risk management suited to your strategy.
AltCoin Index Correlation🧠 AltCoin Index Correlation — Strategy Overview
AltCoin Index Correlation is a dynamic EMA-based trading strategy designed primarily for altcoins, but also adaptable to stocks and indices, thanks to its flexible reference index system.
🧭 Strategy Philosophy
The core idea behind this strategy is simple yet powerful:
Price action becomes more meaningful when it aligns with broader market context.
This script analyzes the correlation between the asset’s trend and a reference index trend, using dual EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossovers for both.
When both the altcoin and the reference index (e.g. Altcoin Dominance, BTC Dominance, Total Market Cap, or even indices like the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500) are aligned in trend direction, the script considers it a high-confidence setup.
It also includes:
Optional inverse correlation logic (for contrarian setups)
Custom leverage settings (e.g., 1x, 1.8x, etc.)
A dynamic scale-out mechanism during weakening trends
Date filtering for controlled backtests
A live performance dashboard with equity, PnL, win rate, drawdown, APR, and more
⚙️ Default Settings & Backtest Results
Timeframe tested: 1H
Test date: May 20, 2025
Sample: 100 high-cap altcoins
Reference index: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D (Altcoin Dominance)
Leverage: 1.8x (180% of capital used)
📊 With default settings:
Win rate: ~80%
Higher profits, due to increased exposure
Best suited for confident trend followers with higher risk tolerance
📉 With fixed capital or 1x leverage:
Win rate improves to ~90%
Lower returns, but greater capital preservation
Ideal for conservative or risk-managed trading styles
🔄 Versatility
While tailored for altcoins, this strategy supports traditional markets as well:
Easily switch the reference index to OANDA:NAS100USD or S&P 500 for stock correlation trading
Adjust EMA lengths and leverage to match the asset class and volatility profile
🧩 Suggested Use
Best used on trending markets (not sideways)
Ideal for 1H timeframes, but adjustable
Suitable for traders who want a rules-based, macro-aware entry/exit system
Try it out, customize it to your style, try different settings and share your results with the community!
Feedback is welcome — and improvements are always in progress.
🚀 ### Check my profile for other juicy hints and original strategies. ### 🚀
SOPR with Z-Score Table📊 Glassnode SOPR with Dynamic Z-Score Table
ℹ️ Powered by Glassnode On-Chain Metrics
📈 Description:
This indicator visualizes the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for major cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin — along with a dynamically normalized Z-Score. SOPR is a key on-chain metric that reflects whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss.
🔍 SOPR is calculated using Glassnode’s entity-adjusted SOPR feed, and a custom SMA is applied to smooth the signal. The normalized Z-Score helps identify market sentiment extremes by scaling SOPR relative to its historical context.
📊 Features:
Selectable cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Litecoin
SOPR smoothed by user-defined SMA (default: 10 periods)
Upper & lower bounds (±4%) for SOPR, shown as red/green lines
Background highlighting when SOPR moves outside normal range
Normalized Z-Score scaled between –2 and +2
Live Z-Score display in a compact top-right table
🧮 Calculations:
SOPR data is sourced daily from Glassnode:
Bitcoin: XTVCBTC_SOPR
Ethereum: XTVCETH_SOPR
Litecoin: XTVCLTC_SOPR
Z-Score is calculated as:
SMA of SOPR over zscore_length periods
Standard deviation of SOPR
Z-Score = (SOPR – mean) / standard deviation
Z-Score is clamped between –2 and +2 for visual consistency
🎯 Interpretation:
SOPR > 1 implies coins are sold in profit
SOPR < 1 suggests coins are sold at a loss
When SOPR is significantly above or below its recent range (e.g., +4% or –4%), it may signal overheating or capitulation
The Z-Score contextualizes how extreme the current SOPR is relative to history
📌 Notes:
Best viewed on daily charts
Works across selected assets (BTC, ETH, LTC)
MVRVZ BTCMVRVZ BTC (Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score)
Description:
The MVRVZ BTC indicator provides insights into the relationship between the market value and realized value of Bitcoin, using the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which is then adjusted using a Z-Score. This indicator highlights potential market extremes and helps in identifying overbought or oversold conditions, offering a unique perspective on Bitcoin's valuation.
How It Works:
MVRVZ is calculated by taking the difference between Bitcoin's Market Capitalization (MC) and Realized Capitalization (MCR), then dividing that by the Standard Deviation (Stdev) of the price over a specified period (usually 104 weeks).
The resulting value is plotted as the MVRVZ line, representing how far the market price deviates from its realized value.
Z-Score is then applied to the MVRVZ line, with the Z-Score bounded between +2 and -2, which allows it to be used within a consistent evaluation framework, regardless of how high or low the MVRVZ line goes. The Z-Score will reflect overbought or oversold conditions:
A Z-Score above +2 indicates the market is likely overbought (possible market top).
A Z-Score below -2 indicates the market is likely oversold (possible market bottom).
Values between -2 and +2 indicate more neutral market conditions.
How to Read the Indicator:
MVRVZ Line:
The MVRVZ line shows the relationship between market cap and realized cap. A higher value indicates the market is overvalued relative to the actual capital realized by holders.
The MVRVZ line can move above or below the top and bottom lines you define, which are adjustable according to your preferences. These lines act as trigger levels.
Top and Bottom Trigger Lines:
You can customize the Top Line and Bottom Line values to your preference.
When the MVRVZ line crosses the Top Line, the market might be considered overbought.
When the MVRVZ line crosses the Bottom Line, the market might be considered oversold.
SCDA Z-Score:
The Z-Score is displayed alongside the MVRVZ line and is bounded between -2 and +2. It scales proportionally based on the MVRVZ line's position relative to the top and bottom trigger lines.
The Z-Score ensures that even if the MVRVZ line moves beyond the trigger lines, the Z-Score will stay within the limits of -2 to +2, making it ideal for your custom evaluation system (SCDA).
Background Highlighting:
The background color changes when the MVRVZ line crosses key levels:
When the MVRVZ line exceeds the Top Trigger, the background turns red, indicating overbought conditions.
When the MVRVZ line falls below the Bottom Trigger, the background turns green, indicating oversold conditions.
Data Sources:
The data for the MVRVZ indicator is sourced from Glassnode and Coinmetrics, which provide the necessary values for:
BTC Market Cap (MC) – The total market capitalization of Bitcoin.
BTC Realized Market Cap (MCR) – The capitalization based on the price at which Bitcoin was last moved on the blockchain (realized value).
How to Use the Indicator:
Market Extremes:
Use the MVRVZ and Z-Score to spot potential market tops or bottoms.
A high Z-Score (above +2) suggests the market is overbought, while a low Z-Score (below -2) suggests the market is oversold.
Adjusting the Triggers:
Customize the Top and Bottom Trigger Lines to suit your trading strategy. These lines can act as dynamic reference points for when to take action based on the Z-Score or MVRVZ line crossing these levels.
Market Evaluation (SCDA Framework):
The bounded Z-Score (from -2 to +2) is tailored for your SCDA evaluation system, allowing you to assess market conditions based on consistent criteria, no matter how volatile the MVRVZ line becomes.
Conclusion:
The MVRVZ BTC indicator is a powerful tool for assessing the relative valuation of Bitcoin based on its market and realized capitalization. By combining it with the Z-Score, you get an easy-to-read, bounded evaluation system that highlights potential market extremes and helps you make informed decisions about Bitcoin's price behavior.
Quad Rotation StochasticQuad Rotation Stochastic
The Quad Rotation Stochastic is a powerful and unique momentum oscillator that combines four different stochastic setups into one tool, providing an incredibly detailed view of market conditions. This multi-timeframe stochastic approach helps traders better anticipate trend continuations, reversals, and momentum shifts with greater precision than traditional single stochastic indicators.
Why this indicator is useful:
Multi-layered Momentum Analysis: Instead of relying on one stochastic, this script tracks four independent stochastic readings, smoothing out noise and confirming stronger signals.
Advanced Divergence Detection: It automatically identifies bullish and bearish divergences for each stochastic, helping traders spot potential reversals early.
Background Color Alerts: When a configurable number (e.g., 3 or 4) of the stochastics agree in direction and position (overbought/oversold), the background colors green (bullish) or red (bearish) to give instant visual cues.
ABCD Pattern Recognition: The script recognizes "shield" patterns when Stochastic 4 remains stuck at extreme levels (above 90 or below 10) for a set time, warning of potential trend continuation setups.
Super Signal Alerts: If all four stochastics align in extreme conditions and slope in the same direction, the indicator plots a special "Super Signal," offering high-confidence entry opportunities.
Why this indicator is unique:
Quad Confirmation Logic: Combining four different stochastics makes this tool much less prone to false signals compared to using a single stochastic.
Customizable Divergence Coloring: Traders can choose to have divergence lines automatically match the stochastic color for clear visual association.
Adaptive ABCD Shields: Innovative use of bar counting while a stochastic remains extreme acts as a "shield," offering a unique way to filter out minor fake-outs.
Flexible Configuration: Each stochastic's sensitivity, divergence settings, and visual styling can be fully customized, allowing traders to adapt it to their own strategy and asset.
Example Usage: Trading Bitcoin with Quad Rotation Stochastic
When trading Bitcoin (BTCUSD), you might set the minimum count (minCount) to 3, meaning three out of four stochastics must be in agreement to trigger a background color.
If the background turns green, and you notice an ABCD Bullish Shield (Green X), you might look for bullish candlestick patterns or moving average crossovers to enter a long trade.
Conversely, if the background turns red and a Super Down Signal appears, it suggests high probability for further downside, giving you strong confirmation to either short BTC or avoid entering new longs.
By combining divergence signals with background colors and the ABCD shields, the Quad Rotation Stochastic provides a layered confirmation system that gives traders greater confidence in their entries and exits — particularly in fast-moving, volatile markets like Bitcoin.
Altseason Index (Top 10)### Altseason Index (Top 10)
#### Overview
The "Altseason Index (Top 10)" indicator identifies whether the market is in an altseason (altcoins outperforming Bitcoin) or a Bitcoin season. It analyzes the performance of 9 top altcoins (ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOT, AVAX, SHIB, LINK) against Bitcoin over 90 days, inspired by the Blockchain Center Altcoin Season Index.
#### How It Works
- Calculates the 90-day price change for BTC and 9 altcoins.
- Counts how many altcoins outperform BTC.
- Index = (number of outperforming altcoins / 9) * 100.
- >75%: Altseason (green zone).
- <25%: Bitcoin season (red zone).
- 25–75%: Neutral.
#### Visualization
- Blue line: Index value (0–100).
- Green line at 75: Altseason threshold.
- Red line at 25: Bitcoin season threshold.
- Green/red background fill for altseason/BTC season zones.
#### Usage
Add to your chart and interpret:
- Above 75: Consider altcoin investments.
- Below 25: Focus on Bitcoin.
Ensure tickers match your exchange (e.g., "BTCUSD" or "BINANCE:BTCUSDT").
#### Notes
- Limited to 9 altcoins due to TradingView's request.security() limit.
- Best on daily charts but adaptable to other timeframes.
BTC Trend Momentum (BTM) with VWMOBTC Trend Momentum (BTM) with VWMO – A Smarter Way to Trade Bitcoin 🚀
Overview
Bitcoin price movements can be volatile, often leading to fake breakouts and whipsaws that mislead traders. BTC Trend Momentum (BTM), combined with Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMO), helps smooth out market noise and provide clearer trend signals.
This script integrates momentum analysis, trend strength detection, and zero-line crossovers, allowing traders to make smarter entries and exits while avoiding false signals.
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Why Use This Indicator?
✅ Momentum Histogram – Easily visualize trend strength with color-coded bars.
✅ Volume-Weighted Analysis – Uses VWMO to filter out weak price movements.
✅ Zero Line Crossover Alerts – Identifies major trend shifts in real-time.
✅ Dynamic Color Coding – Stronger trends highlighted in brighter colors.
✅ Background Shading – Differentiates bullish & bearish zones for easy trend reading.
✅ Built-in Alerts – Get notified of trade opportunities instantly.
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How to Trade Using BTC Trend Momentum (BTM)
🔹 Buy Signal: When the momentum histogram (green bars) crosses above the EMA (orange line).
🔹 Sell Signal: When the momentum histogram (red bars) crosses below the EMA.
🔹 Strong Trend Confirmation: If histogram bars turn lime (bullish) or maroon (bearish), it indicates strong momentum.
🔹 Zero Line Crossovers: A bullish crossover above zero confirms an uptrend, while a bearish crossover below zero confirms a downtrend.
For better results, combine with RSI, MACD, or VWAP to confirm trend strength before entering trades.
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Best Timeframes for Trading
📌 1H & 4H – Ideal for swing trading Bitcoin.
📌 5M & 15M – Perfect for scalping BTC with precision.
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💡 Would you integrate BTC Trend Momentum (BTM) into your trading strategy? Let us know your thoughts below!
BTC Future Gamma-Weighted Momentum Model (BGMM)The BTC Future Gamma-Weighted Momentum Model (BGMM) is a quantitative trading strategy that utilizes the Gamma-weighted average price (GWAP) in conjunction with a momentum-based approach to predict price movements in the Bitcoin futures market. The model combines the concept of weighted price movements with trend identification, where the Gamma factor amplifies the weight assigned to recent prices. It leverages the idea that historical price trends and weighting mechanisms can be utilized to forecast future price behavior.
Theoretical Background:
1. Momentum in Financial Markets:
Momentum is a well-established concept in financial market theory, referring to the tendency of assets to continue moving in the same direction after initiating a trend. Any observed market return over a given time period is likely to continue in the same direction, a phenomenon known as the “momentum effect.” Deviations from a mean or trend provide potential trading opportunities, particularly in highly volatile assets like Bitcoin.
Numerous empirical studies have demonstrated that momentum strategies, based on price movements, especially those correlating long-term and short-term trends, can yield significant returns (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993). Given Bitcoin’s volatile nature, it is an ideal candidate for momentum-based strategies.
2. Gamma-Weighted Price Strategies:
Gamma weighting is an advanced method of applying weights to price data, where past price movements are weighted by a Gamma factor. This weighting allows for the reinforcement or reduction of the influence of historical prices based on an exponential function. The Gamma factor (ranging from 0.5 to 1.5) controls how much emphasis is placed on recent data: a value closer to 1 applies an even weighting across periods, while a value closer to 0 diminishes the influence of past prices.
Gamma-based models are used in financial analysis and modeling to enhance a model’s adaptability to changing market dynamics. This weighting mechanism is particularly advantageous in volatile markets such as Bitcoin futures, as it facilitates quick adaptation to changing market conditions (Black-Scholes, 1973).
Strategy Mechanism:
The BTC Future Gamma-Weighted Momentum Model (BGMM) utilizes an adaptive weighting strategy, where the Bitcoin futures prices are weighted according to the Gamma factor to calculate the Gamma-Weighted Average Price (GWAP). The GWAP is derived as a weighted average of prices over a specific number of periods, with more weight assigned to recent periods. The calculated GWAP serves as a reference value, and trading decisions are based on whether the current market price is above or below this level.
1. Long Position Conditions:
A long position is initiated when the Bitcoin price is above the GWAP and a positive price movement is observed over the last three periods. This indicates that an upward trend is in place, and the market is likely to continue in the direction of the momentum.
2. Short Position Conditions:
A short position is initiated when the Bitcoin price is below the GWAP and a negative price movement is observed over the last three periods. This suggests that a downtrend is occurring, and a continuation of the negative price movement is expected.
Backtesting and Application to Bitcoin Futures:
The model has been tested exclusively on the Bitcoin futures market due to Bitcoin’s high volatility and strong trend behavior. These characteristics make the market particularly suitable for momentum strategies, as strong upward or downward movements are often followed by persistent trends that can be captured by a momentum-based approach.
Backtests of the BGMM on the Bitcoin futures market indicate that the model achieves above-average returns during periods of strong momentum, especially when the Gamma factor is optimized to suit the specific dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The high volatility of Bitcoin, combined with adaptive weighting, allows the model to respond quickly to price changes and maximize trading opportunities.
Scientific Citations and Sources:
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
• Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637–654.
• Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465.
TOTAL3/BTC This Pine Script™ code, named "TOTAL3/BTC with Arrow," is designed for cryptocurrency analysis on TradingView.
This script essentially provides a visual tool for traders to gauge when altcoins might be gaining or losing ground relative to Bitcoin through moving average analysis and color-coded trend indication.
Intention was to help the community with a script based on classic TA only.
Use it with SASDv2r indicator.
Feel free to make it better. If you did so, please let me know.
Main elements:
Data Fetching: It retrieves market cap data for all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) and for Bitcoin (BTC).
Ratio Calculation: The script calculates the ratio of TOTAL3 to BTC market caps, which indicates how altcoins (excluding ETH) are performing relative to Bitcoin.
Plotting the Ratio: This ratio is plotted on the chart with a blue line, allowing traders to see the relative performance visually.
Moving Averages: Two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are calculated for this ratio, one for 20 periods (ma20) and another for 50 periods (ma50), though these are not plotted in the current version of the code.
Reference Lines: Horizontal lines are added at ratios of 0.3 and 0.8 to serve as visual equilibrium points or thresholds for analysis.
Complex Moving Average: The script uses constants (len, len2, cc, smoothe) from another script, suggesting it's adapting or simplifying another's logic for multi-timeframe analysis.
Average Calculation: Two SMAs (avg and avg2) are computed using the constants defined, focusing on different lengths for trend analysis.
Direction Determination: It checks if the moving average is trending up or down by comparing the current value with its value smoothe bars earlier.
Color Coding: The color of the plotted moving average changes based on its direction (lime for up, red for down, aqua if no clear direction), aiding in quick visual interpretation of trends.
Plotting: Finally, the script plots this multi-timeframe moving average with a dynamic color to reflect the current market trend of the TOTAL3/BTC ratio, with a thicker line for visibility.
BTC vs Mag7 Combined IndexThis Mag7 Combined Index script is a custom TradingView indicator that calculates and visualizes the collective performance of the Magnificent 7 (Mag7) stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Meta (red line) compared to Bitcoin (blue line). It normalizes the daily closing prices of each stock to their initial value on the chart, scales them into percentages, and then computes their simple average to form a combined index. The result is plotted as a single red line, offering a clear view of the aggregated performance of these influential stocks over time compared to Bitcoin.
This indicator is ideal for analyzing the overall market impact of Bitcoin compared to the Mag7 stocks.
Compare TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and OTHERSCompare TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and OTHERS
This indicator compares the performance of major cryptocurrency market cap indices: TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and OTHERS. It normalizes each index's performance relative to its starting value and visualizes their relative changes over time.
Features
- Normalized Performance: Tracks the percentage change of each index from its initial value.
- Customizable Timeframe: Allows users to select a base timeframe for the data (e.g., daily, weekly).
- Dynamic Labels: Displays the latest performance of each index as a label on the chart, aligned to the right of the corresponding line for easy comparison.
- Color-Coded Lines: Each index is assigned a distinct color for clear differentiation:
-- TOTAL (Blue): Represents the total cryptocurrency market cap.
-- TOTAL2 (Green): Excludes Bitcoin.
-- TOTAL3 (Orange): Excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum.
-- OTHERS (Red): Represents all cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10 by market cap.
- Baseline Reference: Includes a horizontal line at 0% for reference.
Use Cases:
- Market Trends: Identify which segments of the cryptocurrency market are outperforming or underperforming over time.
- Portfolio Insights: Assess the impact of Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance on the broader market.
- Market Analysis: Compare smaller-cap coins (OTHERS) with broader indices (TOTAL, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3).
This script is ideal for traders and analysts who want a quick, visual way to track how different segments of the cryptocurrency market perform relative to each other over time.
Note: The performance is normalized to highlight percentage changes, not absolute values.
