COIN/BTC Volume-Weighted DivergenceThe COIN/BTC Volume-Weighted Divergence indicator identifies buy and sell signals by analyzing deviations between Coinbase and Bitcoin prices relative to their respective VWAPs (Volume-Weighted Average Price). This method isolates points of potential trend reversals, overextensions, or relative mispricing based on volume-adjusted price benchmarks.
The indicator leverages Coinbase’s high beta relative to Bitcoin in bull markets. A buy signal occurs when Coinbase is below VWAP (indicating undervaluation) while Bitcoin is above VWAP (signaling strong broader momentum). A sell signal is generated when Coinbase trades above VWAP (indicating overvaluation) while Bitcoin moves below VWAP (indicating weakening momentum).
This divergence logic enables traders to identify misalignment between Bitcoin-driven market trends and Coinbase’s price behavior. The indicator effectively identifies undervalued entry points and signals exits before speculative extensions are correct. It provides a systematic approach to trading during trending conditions, aligning decisions with volume-weighted price dynamics and inter-asset relationships.
How It Works
1. VWAP:
“fair value” benchmark combining price and volume.
• Above VWAP: Bullish momentum.
• Below VWAP: Bearish momentum.
2. Divergence:
• Coinbase Divergence: close - coin_vwap (distance from COIN’s VWAP).
• Bitcoin Divergence: btc_price - btc_vwap (distance from BTC’s VWAP).
3. Signals:
• Buy: Coinbase is below VWAP (potentially oversold), and Bitcoin is above VWAP (broader bullish trend).
• Sell: Coinbase is above VWAP (potentially overbought), and Bitcoin is below VWAP (broader bearish trend).
4. Visualization:
• Green triangle: Buy signal.
• Red triangle: Sell signal.
Strengths
• Combines price and volume for reliable insights.
• Highlights potential trend reversals or overextensions.
• Exploits correlations between Coinbase and Bitcoin.
Limitations
• Struggles in sideways markets.
• Sensitive to volume spikes, which may distort VWAP.
• Ineffective in strong trends where divergence persists.
Improvements
1. Z-Scores: Use statistical thresholds (e.g., ±2 std dev) for stronger signals.
2. Volume Filter: Generate signals only during high-volume periods.
3. Momentum Confirmation: Combine with RSI or MACD for better reliability.
4. Multi-Timeframe VWAP: Use intraday, daily, and weekly VWAPs for deeper analysis.
Complementary Tools
• Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD for trend validation.
• Volume-Based Metrics: OBV, cumulative delta volume.
• Support/Resistance Levels: Enhance reversal accuracy.
Cerca negli script per "bitcoin"
Master Litecoin Network Value Model BandThe "Master Litecoin Network Value Model Band" is a TradingView Pine Script indicator designed to analyze and visualize Litecoin's valuation dynamics in comparison to Bitcoin, leveraging a range of on-chain and market metrics. The script creates bands to highlight overvalued or undervalued conditions for Litecoin relative to multiple network and market factors.
Key Features:
Data Integration:
Incorporates on-chain data such as total addresses, new addresses, active addresses, transactions, volume, hodlers, and block sizes for both Litecoin and Bitcoin.
Uses market metrics like price, supply, and retail involvement to model Litecoin's network value.
Value Models:
Constructs individual models based on specific metrics (e.g., new addresses, transaction volume, median volume) to evaluate Litecoin's network valuation against Bitcoin.
Normalizes these models by adjusting for relative supply and Bitcoin's USD price.
Average and Median Models:
Calculates an Average Value Model by combining multiple metric-based models.
Provides a smoothed Median Value Model for more stable trends over time.
Dynamic Bands:
Identifies the maximum and minimum values among the various models to establish upper and lower bands for Litecoin's valuation.
Compares Litecoin's USD price to these bands, categorizing it as overvalued (above the upper band), undervalued (below the lower band), or fairly valued (within the bands).
Visual Representation:
Plots the upper and lower bounds (maxValue and minValue) along with Litecoin's price (ltcusd).
Highlights price movements with color-coded fills:
White fill: Litecoin price exceeds the maximum band.
Blue fill: Litecoin price is between the maximum and minimum bands.
Black fill: Litecoin price falls below the minimum band.
Purpose:
This indicator provides traders and analysts with a comprehensive tool to:
Assess Litecoin's market position relative to its network fundamentals.
Identify potential buy or sell zones based on deviation from fair valuation bands.
Track Litecoin's value trends in relation to Bitcoin as a benchmark.
Implied Leverage Ratio Between Current Symbol and BTCThis script calculates and visualizes the implied leverage ratio between the current symbol and Bitcoin (BTC). The implied leverage ratio is computed by comparing the cumulative price changes of the two symbols over a defined number of candles. The results provide insights into how the current symbol performs relative to BTC in terms of bullish (upward) and bearish (downward) movements.
Features
Cumulative Up and Down Ratios:
The script calculates the cumulative price increase (up) and decrease (down) ratios for both the current symbol and BTC. These ratios are based on the percentage changes relative to each candle's opening price.
Implied Leverage Ratio:
For bullish movements, the cumulative up ratio of the current symbol is divided by BTC's cumulative up ratio.
For bearish movements, the cumulative down ratio of the current symbol is divided by BTC's cumulative down ratio.
These values reflect the implied leverage of the current symbol relative to BTC in both directions.
Customizable Comparison Symbol:
By default, the script compares the current symbol to BINANCE:BTCUSDT. However, you can specify any other symbol to tailor the analysis.
Interactive Visualization:
Green Line: Represents the ratio of cumulative up movements (current symbol vs. BTC).
Red Line: Represents the ratio of cumulative down movements (current symbol vs. BTC).
A horizontal zero line is included for reference, ensuring the chart always starts from zero.
How to Use
Add this script to your chart from the Pine Editor or the public library.
Customize the number of candles (t) to define the period over which cumulative changes are calculated.
If desired, replace the comparison symbol with another asset in the input settings.
Analyze the green and red lines to identify relative strength and implied leverage trends.
Who Can Benefit
Traders and Analysts: Gain insights into the relative performance of altcoins, stocks, or other instruments against BTC.
Leverage Seekers: Identify assets with higher or lower implied leverage compared to Bitcoin.
Market Comparisons: Understand how various assets react to market movements relative to BTC.
This tool is particularly useful for identifying potential outperformers or underperformers relative to Bitcoin and can guide strategic decisions in trading pairs or market analysis.
Customizable BTC Seasonality StrategyThis strategy leverages intraday seasonality effects in Bitcoin, specifically targeting hours of statistically significant returns during periods when traditional financial markets are closed. Padysak and Vojtko (2022) demonstrate that Bitcoin exhibits higher-than-average returns from 21:00 UTC to 23:00 UTC, a period in which all major global exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Tokyo Stock Exchange, and London Stock Exchange, are closed. The absence of competing trading activity from traditional markets during these hours appears to contribute to these statistically significant returns.
The strategy proceeds as follows:
Entry Time: A long position in Bitcoin is opened at a user-specified time, which defaults to 21:00 UTC, aligning with the beginning of the identified high-return window.
Holding Period: The position is held for two hours, capturing the positive returns typically observed during this period.
Exit Time: The position is closed at a user-defined time, defaulting to 23:00 UTC, allowing the strategy to exit as the favorable period concludes.
This simple seasonality strategy aims to achieve a 33% annualized return with a notably reduced volatility of 20.93% and maximum drawdown of -22.45%. The results suggest that investing only during these high-return hours is more stable and less risky than a passive holding strategy (Padysak & Vojtko, 2022).
References
Padysak, M., & Vojtko, R. (2022). Seasonality, Trend-following, and Mean reversion in Bitcoin.
Altcoins vs BTC Market Cap HeatmapAltcoins vs BTC Market Cap Heatmap
"Ground control to major Tom" 🌙 👨🚀 🚀
This indicator provides a visual heatmap for tracking the relationship between the market cap of altcoins (TOTAL3) and Bitcoin (BTC). The primary goal is to identify potential market cycle tops and bottoms by analyzing how the TOTAL3 market cap (all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) compares to Bitcoin’s market cap.
Key Features:
• Market Cap Ratio: Plots the ratio of TOTAL3 to BTC market caps to give a clear visual representation of altcoin strength versus Bitcoin.
• Heatmap: Colors the background red when altcoins are overheating (TOTAL3 market cap equals or exceeds BTC) and blue when altcoins are cooling (TOTAL3 market cap is half or less than BTC).
• Threshold Levels: Includes horizontal lines at 1 (Overheated), 0.75 (Median), and 0.5 (Cooling) for easy reference.
• Alerts: Set alert conditions for when the ratio crosses key levels (1.0, 0.75, and 0.5), enabling timely notifications for potential market shifts.
How It Works:
• Overheated (Ratio ≥ 1): Indicates that the altcoin market cap is on par or larger than Bitcoin's, which could signal a top in the cycle.
• Cooling (Ratio < 0.5): Suggests that the altcoin market cap is half or less than Bitcoin's, potentially signaling a market bottom or cooling phase.
• Median (Ratio ≈ 0.75): A midpoint that provides insight into the market's neutral zone.
Use this tool to monitor market extremes and adjust your strategy accordingly when the altcoin market enters overheated or cooling phases.
Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator [InvestorUnknown]The Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator is designed for long-term cycle analysis, particularly useful for detecting significant market tops and bottoms in assets like Bitcoin. By comparing the behavior of two moving averages, one with a shorter period (default 111) and the other with a longer period (default 350), the indicator helps investors identify potential turning points in the market.
Key Features:
Dual Moving Average System:
The indicator uses two moving averages (MA) to create a cyclic oscillator. The shorter moving average (Short Length MA) is more reactive to recent price changes, while the longer moving average (Long Length MA) smooths out long-term trends. Users can select between:
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A straightforward average of closing prices.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Places more weight on recent prices, making it more responsive to market changes.
Oscillator Mode Options:
The Pi Cycle Indicator offers two modes of oscillation to better suit different analysis styles:
RAW Mode: This mode calculates the raw ratio of the Short MA to the Long MA, offering a simple comparison of the two averages.
LOG(X) Mode: In this mode, the oscillator takes the natural logarithm of the Short MA to Long MA ratio. This transformation compresses extreme values and highlights relative changes more effectively, making it particularly useful for spotting shifts in long-term trends.
Cyclical Analysis:
The core of the Pi Cycle Indicator is its ability to visualize the relationship between the two moving averages. The ratio of the Short MA to the Long MA is plotted as an oscillator. When the oscillator crosses above or below a baseline (which is 1 for RAW mode and 0 for LOG(X) mode), it signals potential market turning points.
Visual Representation:
The indicator provides a clear visual display of market conditions:
Orange Line: Represents the Pi Cycle Oscillator, which shows the relationship between the short and long moving averages.
Gray Baseline: A reference line that dynamically adjusts based on the oscillator mode. Crosses above or below this line help indicate possible trend reversals.
Shaded Areas: Color-filled areas between the oscillator and the baseline, which are shaded green when the market is bullish (oscillator above baseline) and red when bearish (oscillator below baseline). This provides a visual cue to assist in identifying potential market tops and bottoms.
Use Cases:
The Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator is primarily used in long-term market analysis, such as Bitcoin cycles, to identify significant tops and bottoms. These moments often coincide with large cyclical shifts, making it valuable for those aiming to enter or exit positions at key moments in the market cycle.
By analyzing the interaction between short-term and long-term trends, investors can gain insight into broader market dynamics and make more informed decisions regarding entry and exit points. The ability to switch between moving average types (SMA/EMA) and oscillator modes (RAW/LOG) adds flexibility for adapting to different market environments.
SOL & BTC EMA with BTC/SOL Price Difference % and BTC Dom EMAThis script is designed to provide traders with a comprehensive analysis of Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin (BTC) by incorporating Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and price difference percentages. It also includes the BTC Dominance EMA to offer insights into the overall market dominance of Bitcoin.
Features:
SOL EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Solana (SOL) based on a customizable period length.
BTC EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Bitcoin (BTC) based on a customizable period length.
BTC Dominance EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for BTC Dominance, which helps in understanding Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies.
BTC/SOL Price Difference %: Calculates and plots the percentage difference between BTC and SOL prices, adjusted for their respective EMAs. This helps in identifying relative strength or weakness between the two assets.
Background Highlight: Colors the background to visually indicate whether the BTC/SOL price difference percentage is positive (green) or negative (red), aiding in quick decision-making.
Inputs:
SOL Ticker: Symbol for Solana (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Dominance Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin Dominance (default: CRYPTOCAP
.D).
EMA Length: The length of the EMA (default: 20 periods).
Usage:
This script is intended for traders looking to analyze the relationship between SOL and BTC, using EMAs to smooth out price data and highlight trends. The BTC/SOL price difference percentage can help traders identify potential trading opportunities based on the relative movements of SOL and BTC.
Note: Leverage trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you have a good understanding of the market conditions and employ proper risk management techniques.
BTC x M2 Divergence (Weekly)### Why the "M2 Money Supply vs BTC Divergence with Normalized RSI" Indicator Should Work
IMPORTANT
- Weekly only indicator
- Combine it with BTC Halving Cycle Profit for better results
The "M2 Money Supply vs BTC Divergence with Normalized RSI" indicator leverages the relationship between macroeconomic factors (M2 money supply) and Bitcoin price movements, combined with technical analysis tools like RSI, to provide actionable trading signals. Here's a detailed rationale on why this indicator should be effective:
1. **Macroeconomic Influence**:
- **M2 Money Supply**: Represents the total money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Changes in M2 reflect liquidity in the economy, which can influence asset prices, including Bitcoin.
- **Bitcoin Sensitivity to Liquidity**: Bitcoin, being a digital asset, often reacts to changes in liquidity conditions. An increase in money supply can lead to higher asset prices as more money chases fewer assets, while a decrease can signal tightening conditions and lower prices.
2. **Divergence Analysis**:
- **Economic Divergence**: The indicator calculates the divergence between the percentage changes in M2 and Bitcoin prices. This divergence can highlight discrepancies between Bitcoin's price movements and broader economic conditions.
- **Market Inefficiencies**: Large divergences may indicate inefficiencies or imbalances that could lead to price corrections or trends. For example, if M2 is increasing (indicating more liquidity) but Bitcoin is not rising proportionately, it might suggest a potential upward correction in Bitcoin's price.
3. **Normalization and Smoothing**:
- **Normalized Divergence**: Normalizing the divergence to a consistent scale (-100 to 100) allows for easier comparison and interpretation over time, making the signals more robust.
- **Smoothing with EMA**: Applying Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to the normalized divergence helps to reduce noise and identify the underlying trend more clearly. This double-smoothed divergence provides a clearer signal by filtering out short-term volatility.
4. **RSI Integration**:
- **RSI as a Momentum Indicator**: RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, indicating overbought or oversold conditions. Normalizing the RSI and incorporating it into the divergence analysis helps to confirm the strength of the signals.
- **Combining Divergence with RSI**: By using RSI in conjunction with divergence, the indicator gains an additional layer of confirmation. For instance, a bullish divergence combined with an oversold RSI can be a strong buy signal.
5. **Dynamic Zones and Sensitivity**:
- **Good DCA Zones**: Highlighting zones where the divergence is significantly positive (good DCA zones) indicates periods where Bitcoin might be undervalued relative to economic conditions, suggesting good buying opportunities.
- **Red Zones**: Marking zones with extremely negative divergence, combined with RSI confirmation, identifies potential market tops or bearish conditions. This helps traders avoid buying into overbought markets or consider selling.
- **Peak Detection**: The sensitivity setting for detecting upside down peaks allows for early identification of potential market bottoms, providing timely entry points for traders.
6. **Visual Cues and Alerts**:
- **Clear Visualization**: The plots and background colors provide immediate visual feedback, making it easier for traders to spot significant conditions without deep analysis.
- **Alerts**: Built-in alerts for key conditions (good DCA zones, red zones, sell signals) ensure traders can act promptly based on the indicator's signals, enhancing the practicality of the tool.
### Conclusion
The "M2 Money Supply vs BTC Divergence with Normalized RSI" indicator integrates macroeconomic data with technical analysis to offer a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's market conditions. By analyzing the divergence between M2 money supply and Bitcoin prices, normalizing and smoothing the data, and incorporating RSI for momentum confirmation, the indicator provides robust signals for identifying potential buying and selling opportunities. This holistic approach increases the likelihood of capturing significant market movements and making informed trading decisions.
RvB ( relative strength vs BTC ) Overview
The "Coin vs BTC" indicator is designed to compare the performance of a selected cryptocurrency against Bitcoin (BTC) using Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). By plotting the difference in EMA values as a percentage, this indicator helps traders visualize the relative strength of a cryptocurrency compared to Bitcoin over specified periods.
How It Works
EMA Calculation: The indicator calculates two EMAs (lengths specified by the user) for both the selected cryptocurrency and Bitcoin (BTC).
Length 1: Fast EMA (default: 9)
Length 2: Slow EMA (default: 21)
Score Calculation:
For both the selected coin and Bitcoin, it computes a score representing the percentage difference between the fast and slow EMAs relative to the previous closing price. This is done using the following steps:
Calculate the difference between the fast and slow EMAs.
Compute the percentage of this difference relative to the previous closing price.
Round the percentage to two decimal places for clarity.
Plotting: The scores for both the selected cryptocurrency and Bitcoin are plotted on the same chart:
Coin Score: Displayed in blue.
BTC Score: Displayed in orange.
Potential Uses
Relative Strength Analysis:
This indicator helps traders compare the strength of a cryptocurrency against Bitcoin. A higher score for the selected coin compared to Bitcoin indicates it is performing better relative to its moving averages.
Trend Confirmation:
By observing the EMA differences, traders can confirm trends and potential reversals. Consistently higher scores may indicate a strong upward trend, while lower scores could suggest a weakening trend.
Market Comparison:
This tool is particularly useful for those looking to understand how their selected cryptocurrency is performing in the broader market context, especially in relation to Bitcoin, which is often considered a market benchmark.
ALT to BTC EvaluationThis custom TradingView indicator, titled "Price Relative to BTC Index", allows users to visualize the price of any selected asset relative to Bitcoin. It achieves this by comparing the closing price of the current ticker to the closing price of Bitcoin as measured by a prominent BTC index. The resulting relative price is then plotted on the chart, providing a clear and direct visual representation of how the asset is performing in comparison to Bitcoin. The plot is displayed in blue with a line width of 2, ensuring that it stands out on your trading charts. This indicator is especially useful for traders looking to assess market sentiment and relative strength between Bitcoin and other assets in real-time.
BTC Purchasing Power 2009-20XX! Hello, today I'm going to show you something that shifts our perspective on Bitcoin's value, not just in nominal terms, but adjusted for the real buying power over the years. This Pine Script TAS developed for TradingView does exactly that by taking into account inflation rates from 2009 to the present.
As you know, inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. That $100 in 2009 does not buy you the same amount in goods or services today. The same concept applies to Bitcoin. While we often look at its price in terms of dollars, pounds, or euros, it's crucial to understand what that price really means in terms of purchasing power.
What this script does is adjust the price of Bitcoin for cumulative inflation since 2009, allowing us to see not just how the nominal price has changed, but how its value as a means of purchasing goods and services has evolved.
For example, if we see Bitcoin's price at $60,000 today, that number might seem high compared to its early years. However, when we adjust this price for inflation, we might find that in terms of 2009's purchasing power, the effective price might be somewhat lower. This adjusted price gives us a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin's true value over time.
This script plots two lines on the chart:
The Original BTC Price: This is the unadjusted price of Bitcoin as we typically see it.
BTC Purchasing Power: This line shows Bitcoin's price adjusted for inflation, reflecting how many goods or services Bitcoin could buy at that point in time compared to 2009.
By comparing these lines, we can observe periods where Bitcoin's purchasing power significantly increased, even if the nominal price was not at its peak. This can help us identify moments when Bitcoin was undervalued or overvalued in real terms.
This analysis is crucial for long-term investors and traders who want to understand Bitcoin's value beyond the surface-level price movements. It helps us appreciate Bitcoin's potential as a store of value, especially in contexts where traditional currencies are losing purchasing power due to inflation.
Remember, investing is not just about riding price waves; it's about understanding the underlying value. And that's precisely what this script helps us to uncover
Change in DominanceTitle: Change in Dominance Indicator
Description:
This is a tool designed to gauge the prevailing trend in the cryptocurrency market. By analyzing the Rate of Change (ROC) in percentage terms over the previous 9 bars for BTC Dominance (BTC.D), Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D), Other Altcoins Dominance (OTHER.D), and USDT Dominance (USDT.D).
How It Works:
The indicator calculates the ROC for BTC.D, ETH.D (aggregated as part of the Altcoin market), OTHER.D (also included in the Altcoin calculation), and USDT.D.
Three lines represent the trends for Bitcoin (BTC), Altcoins (ETH and OTHER combined), and USDT respectively:
Green Line: Represents the trend for BTC. A higher green line indicates a dominance of BTC in the market trend, suggesting money flow into Bitcoin.
Silver Line: Indicates the Altcoin trend (combining ETH and OTHER). When the silver line is the highest among the three, it signals that Altcoins are leading the market, which can be considered bullish as it suggests money is flowing into Altcoins.
Red Line: Represents the USDT trend. A dominant red line over others implies a bearish market sentiment, indicating money flow out of cryptocurrencies and into USDT.
Usage Tips:
Altcoin Bullishness: When the silver line is above both the red and green lines, it suggests a bullish trend for Altcoins, indicating that money is flowing into the Altcoin sector of the market.
Market Bearishness: If the red line surpasses the silver and green lines, it could be a signal that investors are moving their funds into USDT, often a sign of bearish market sentiment.
BTC Bullishness: A higher green line compared to the silver and red lines implies that Bitcoin is the dominant force in the market, suggesting a bullish sentiment for BTC.
BTC Supply in Profits and Losses (BTCSPL) [AlgoAlpha]Description:
🚨The BTC Supply in Profits and Losses (BTCSPL) indicator, developed by AlgoAlpha, offers traders insights into the distribution of INDEX:BTCUSD addresses between profits and losses based on INDEX:BTCUSD on-chain data.
Features:
🔶Alpha Decay Adjustment: The indicator provides the option to adjust the data against Alpha Decay, this compensates for the reduction in clarity of the signal over time.
🔶Rolling Change Display: The indicator enables the display of the rolling change in the distribution of Bitcoin addresses between profits and losses, aiding in identifying shifts in market sentiment.
🔶BTCSPL Value Score: The indicator optionally displays a value score ranging from -1 to 1, traders can use this to carry out strategic dollar cost averaging and reverse dollar cost averaging based on the implied value of bitcoin.
🔶Reversal Signals: The indicator gives long-term reversal signals denoted as "▲" and "▼" for the price of bitcoin based on oversold and overbought conditions of the BTCSPL.
🔶Moving Average Visualization: Traders can choose to display a moving average line, allowing for better trend identification.
How to Use ☝️ (summary):
Alpha Decay Adjustment: Toggle this option to enable or disable Alpha Decay adjustment for a normalized representation of the data.
Moving Average: Toggle this option to show or hide the moving average line, helping traders identify trends.
Short-Term Trend: Enable this option to display the short-term trend based on the Aroon indicator.
Rolling Change: Choose this option to visualize the rolling change in the distribution between profits and losses.
BTCSPL Value Score: Activate this option to show the BTCSPL value score, ranging from -1 to 1, 1 implies that bitcoin is extremely cheap(buy) and -1 implies bitcoin is extremely expensive(sell).
Reversal Signals: Gives binary buy and sell signals for the long term
Cumulative Volume Value (BTC)The Cumulative Volume Value (BTC) indicator is designed to visualize and analyze cumulative volume data specific to Bitcoin. This indicator provides insights into the total volume transacted over a time, aiding in understanding market activity and potential value of Bitcoin.
It considers whether the closing price is greater than the opening price over the defined length, adding or subtracting volume accordingly.
The Cumulative Volume Value (BTC) indicator offers a valuable perspective on Bitcoin's market activity by visualizing cumulative volume and providing insights into potential market tops, bottoms, and the relationship between volume and BTC value movements.
Peaks in the cumulative volume might suggest potential tops in the BTC market, indicating periods of intense trading activity.
Conversely, bottoms in cumulative volume might signal potential market bottoms, representing phases of reduced trading activity or consolidation.
This is how human psychology works. The greatest activity is close to the peak and the worst when the price of BTC has decreased to the level when people lose interest and faith in the cryptocurrency market and the volume of trades falls, then the best time to buy.
Important Considerations:
Historical patterns suggest a relationship between cumulative volume and market tops/bottoms, but this indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for informed trading decisions.
Past performance of cumulative volume in relation to market tops or bottoms does not guarantee future outcomes in financial markets.
Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (LGS2F) [AlgoAlpha]Description:
The "∂ Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (LG-S2F)" indicator, developed by AlgoAlpha, is a technical analysis tool designed to analyze the price of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the Stock-to-Flow model. The indicator calculates the expected price range of BTC by incorporating variables such as BTC supply, block height, and model parameters. It also includes error bands to indicate potential overbought and oversold conditions.
How it Works:
The LG-S2F indicator utilizes the Stock-to-Flow model, which measures the scarcity of an asset by comparing its circulating supply (stock) to its newly produced supply (flow). In this script, the BTC supply and block height data are obtained to calculate the price using the model formula. The formula includes coefficients (a, b, c) and exponentiation functions to derive the expected price.
The script incorporates error bands based on uncertainty values derived from the standard errors of the model parameters. These error bands indicate the potential range of variation in the expected price, accounting for uncertainties in the model's parameters. The upper and lower error bands visualize potential overbought and oversold conditions, respectively.
Usage:
Traders can utilize the LG-S2F indicator to gain insights into the potential price movements of Bitcoin. The indicator's main line represents the expected price, while the error bands highlight the potential range of variation. Traders may consider taking long positions when the price is near or below the lower error band and short positions when the price is close to or above the upper error band.
It's important to note that the LG-S2F indicator is specifically designed for Bitcoin and relies on the Stock-to-Flow model. Users should exercise caution and consider additional analysis and factors before making trading decisions solely based on this indicator.
Originality:
The LG-S2F indicator, developed by QuantMario and AlgoAlpha, is an original implementation that combines the Stock-to-Flow model with error bands to provide a comprehensive view of BTC's potential price range. While the concept of Stock-to-Flow analysis exists, the specific calculations, incorporation of error bands, and customization options in this script are unique to QuantMario's methodology. The script is released under Mozilla Public License 2.0, allowing users to utilize and modify it while adhering to the license terms.
BTC - Hotness Index### Script Description
#### BTC - Hotness Index
This Pine Script, version 4, aims to generate a "Hotness Index" for Bitcoin (BTC) trading by utilizing a Pi Cycle Top Indicator. The script operates in a daily (`1D`) time frame and involves calculating two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) based on `close` prices:
- 111-day SMA (`D_111SMA`)
- 350-day SMA (`D_350SMA`) multiplied by 2
The primary indicator (`pi_indicator`) is derived by dividing `D_111SMA` by `D_350SMA`.
##### Sell Signal
A sell signal is plotted as a histogram if `pi_indicator` crosses above 1 (`pi_plot` variable).
##### Buy Signal
A buy signal is plotted as a histogram if `pi_indicator` crosses below 0.35 (`pi_plot_buy` variable).
##### Horizontal Lines
Two horizontal lines are included to denote the "Buy Zone" and "Sell Zone":
- "Sell Zone" at `pi_indicator` level of 1
- "Buy Zone" at `pi_indicator` level of 0.35
##### Plotting
Histogram plots are used for visualizing the signals:
- Sell signals are colored red (`RGB: 255, 59, 59`)
- Buy signals are colored green (`RGB: 82, 255, 59`)
This script provides traders a visual guide for potential buy/sell opportunities based on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator and the Hotness Index for Bitcoin. It operates under the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0.
Cumulative Value Coin Days DestroyedIndicator overview
CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed.
Coin Days Destroyed is a term used for bitcoin to identify a value of sorts to UTXO’s (unspent transaction outputs). You can learn more about UTXO’s here. They can be thought of as coins moving between wallets.
When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:
a USD value
plus, it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins
That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.
The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoins price with good accuracy.
To creat a valuating of indicator was used normilized distance between price and CVDD, so the bigger distance of price from CVDD the lower will be value max -1 and vice versa the closes price to CVDD the biggest value max 1
(alert with value)
CVDD was created by @woonomic.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)Indicator Overview
This indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:
Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.
Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.
To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.
Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.
How To View The Chart
The key principle of this tool is in the ratio between market cap and Bitcoin investors taking profit.
When market cap rises much faster than profit taking we see that the market is overheating, one could say due to investor greed (red band). For the strategic investor such times have historically been favourable to take profit.
We can break down different percentages of Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss to determine what stage of the market we are in. This can be advantageous for the long term strategic investor.
Created By
Tamas Blummer, Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet
Typical Sweeps: Pivot high/low boxes. Grade sweeps, Handles/PipsTool to show typical pip-grade/ handle-grade sweep distance above pivot highs and pivot lows
-In consolidation/ranging periods (i.e. most of the time); Highs/Lows may by swept by fairly consistent distances in typical stop raids.
-Idea is from ICT teaching on typical Pip-grade sweeps in FX (10,20,30pips). Designed to work on FX, Indices, Commodities, Bitcoin.
-Above chart shows S&P; sweeping below and then above by 5 handles.
///inputs///
~choose sweep distance handles ($) or pips: will auto-calculate depending on the asset: FX= pips; Indices/stocks/commodities = handles ($)
--(2,5,10,20,30,50,100, 500, 1000)
~choose pivot lookback: larger number for more significant swing highs/lows
~choose number of historical boxes to display
~toggle on/off Pivot high boxes and Pivot low boxes independently
~extend boxes fully to the right (default is not extend)
~toggle on/off text
~text & box formatting options
Bitcoin, hourly chart; Pivot lookback = 15; $100 sweep boxes:
Eur/Usd; 15m chart; Pivot lookback = 30; 10pip sweep boxes; Boxes extended fully to the right:
ahr999 Index█ OVERVIEW
The ahr999 index is very suitable for long-term value investors in Bitcoin.
When the index is above 1.2, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is rising in a bull market.
When it is below 1.2, it indicates a reasonable cost averaging interval for investment.
When it is below 0.45, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is underestimated and is a relatively high-certainty bottoming interval.
█ CONCEPTS
ahr999 is the product of two indices, one is Bitcoin's 200-day average price cost and the other is a price estimate fitted to Bitcoin's age.
The average cost is actually a geometric mean of bitcoin price in 200days.
and the estimate price was calculated by a log function based on the bitcoin price history since 2010.
finally we got the formula:
ahr999 Index = (close / GMA200) * (close / Estimate Price)
█ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This ahr999 index was originally created by Nine God in his book 《Bitcoin Accumulation》
Round NumbersThis is a variation of "Round numbers above and below" indicator by BitcoinJesus-Not-Roger-Ver. I've made it two sets of lines and round number range changeable. Defaults at 100 and 500 round numbers.
Round Numbers and Quarter LevelsThis script is based on "Round Numbers Above and Below" by BitcoinJesus-Not-Roger-Ver, but unlike this script that only shows "Round Numbers" levels, my script also shows "Quarter Number" levels like 25 and 75 that are very important for those who follow the quarters theory.
Also the original script doesn't have different colors for different levels while my script has different colors and different styles for every level, this way it will be much easyer to recognize the levels at first sight.
Finally the origianl script only works with Forex while my script also works with indexes like SP500 and others.
Round Numbers are very important psychological levels in trading but also quarters levels (25 and 75) have a huge importance, so I created this script that shows all these levels with different colors and different lines style.
You can edit the color and the style of the lines as you wish and you can add all the levels you want.
In 1 hour chart 4 levels is usually enough but if you watch a daily chart then 8 levels is way better.
Features:
Personalize color to 00 round levels
Personalize color to 50 round levels
Personalize color to Quarters levels
Personalize line style to 00 round levels
Personalize line style to 50 round levels
Personalize line style to Quarters levels
Choose number of lines above and below price level (4 is default)
Crypto Portfolio ManagementCrypto Portfolio Management
This is an indicator not like the other ones that you regularly see in tradingview. The main difference is that this indicator does not plot a value for each candle bar like you would see with RSI or MACD. Actually it is table and it just uses tradingview great database of assets to plot some valuebale information that can not be found elsewhere easily. These metrics are some basic one that is used by portfolio managers to decide what they want to hold in their portfolio. The basic idea is that you should hold assets in your basket that are less correlated to the benchmark.
Benchmark in traditional context refers to main market indices like S&P 500 of US market. But they already have a lot of tools available. My effort was for crypto investors who are trying to rebalance their portfolio every month or week to have some good metrics to make decision. Because of this I used Bitcoin as crypto market benchmark. So, everything is compared to bitcoin in this script. I’m gonna explain the terms that is used in the table’s columns below.
MAKE SURE YOU PUT YOUR CHART AT DAILY AND AT THE MAXIMUM AVAILABLE DATA EXCHANGE.
Y-Exp
This is yearly expected return of the asset. It is simply the mean of the yearly returns of the asset. (these calculations are not typical in Tradingview because mainly we calculate on each bar and give value at the same bar but here this value to change once a year). Remember that the higher this value is the better it is because historically the asset have shown good returns but there is a tip: Always check the available historical data in any asset that you are adding if you add an asset that has only 1 year of data available or you use an exchange data that recently added the coin you will get unsignificant results and the results can not be trusted. You should always selects coins and market (coins can be changed in setting) that have the largest data available.
Y-SDev
This is a little bit complicated than the previous. This is the standard deviation of the yearly returns. This is a classic measure of RISK in financial markets. The higher the value, the more risk is involved with the asset that you have added. If you added two assets that have same returns but different Standard deviations, the rational thinker should choose the asset with lower Standard deviation.
The standard deviation is a good place to start but there are some considerations to have -it is getting complicated and average user should not be involved with these terms and can ignore the next phrases- standard deviation and mean of the yearly returns are random variables, these variables have a theoretical probability density function and these functions are not gaussian normal distribution. Because of this in the professional usage these returns should be transformed to a normal distribution and have all these terms calculated there and then transform back to its own normal state and then be used for any serious investment decision. I think these calculations can be done on Tradingview but I need you support to do this in the form of like and share of my scripts and ideas.
M-Exp and M-SDev
These terms are like the previous ones but it is calculated on monthly returns. As it goes for yearly return, the monthly returns change once a monthly candle closes. So be patient to use this indicator.
I highly recommend not to make decisions on monthly data due to a lot of noise involved with this market but in long run it is ok. So go with yearly returns and wait at least for 3 years to see your results.
CorToBTC
Basically you want to buy something that is less correalted with the benchmark. this is the correlation of the asset to bitcoin.
Sharpe Ratio
This is one of the most used metric as a risk adjusted return measurment. you can google it for more information. The higher this value the better. remmeber with any invenstment it is important to understand risks associated with the assets that you are buying.
DownFromATH
This metric that I didn't see anywhere in the tradingview and is familiar in the platforms like coinmarketcap. this is a real calculation of precentage down from ATH (All Time High). it means how much percentage a coin is down from the maximum price that the asset has experienced until now.
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Remember you can change all the asset except main asset. If you like this script to 500 I will update this continuously.
