Mutanabby_AI | Algo Pro Strategy# Mutanabby_AI | Algo Pro Strategy: Advanced Candlestick Pattern Trading System
## Strategy Overview
The Mutanabby_AI Algo Pro Strategy represents a systematic approach to automated trading based on advanced candlestick pattern recognition and multi-layered technical filtering. This strategy transforms traditional engulfing pattern analysis into a comprehensive trading system with sophisticated risk management and flexible position sizing capabilities.
The strategy operates on a long-only basis, entering positions when bullish engulfing patterns meet specific technical criteria and exiting when bearish engulfing patterns indicate potential trend reversals. The system incorporates multiple confirmation layers to enhance signal reliability while providing comprehensive customization options for different trading approaches and risk management preferences.
## Core Algorithm Architecture
The strategy foundation relies on bullish and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern recognition enhanced through technical analysis filtering mechanisms. Entry signals require simultaneous satisfaction of four distinct criteria: confirmed bullish engulfing pattern formation, candle stability analysis indicating decisive price action, RSI momentum confirmation below specified thresholds, and price decline verification over adjustable lookback periods.
The candle stability index measures the ratio between candlestick body size and total range including wicks, ensuring only well-formed patterns with clear directional conviction generate trading signals. This filtering mechanism eliminates indecisive market conditions where pattern reliability diminishes significantly.
RSI integration provides momentum confirmation by requiring oversold conditions before entry signal generation, ensuring alignment between pattern formation and underlying momentum characteristics. The RSI threshold remains fully adjustable to accommodate different market conditions and volatility environments.
Price decline verification examines whether current prices have decreased over a specified period, confirming that bullish engulfing patterns occur after meaningful downward movement rather than during sideways consolidation phases. This requirement enhances the probability of successful reversal pattern completion.
## Advanced Position Management System
The strategy incorporates dual position sizing methodologies to accommodate different account sizes and risk management approaches. Percentage-based position sizing calculates trade quantities as equity percentages, enabling consistent risk exposure across varying account balances and market conditions. This approach proves particularly valuable for systematic trading approaches and portfolio management applications.
Fixed quantity sizing provides precise control over trade sizes independent of account equity fluctuations, offering predictable position management for specific trading strategies or when implementing precise risk allocation models. The system enables seamless switching between sizing methods through simple configuration adjustments.
Position quantity calculations integrate seamlessly with TradingView's strategy testing framework, ensuring accurate backtesting results and realistic performance evaluation across different market conditions and time periods. The implementation maintains consistency between historical testing and live trading applications.
## Comprehensive Risk Management Framework
The strategy features dual stop loss methodologies addressing different risk management philosophies and market analysis approaches. Entry price-based stop losses calculate stop levels as fixed percentages below entry prices, providing predictable risk exposure and consistent risk-reward ratio maintenance across all trades.
The percentage-based stop loss system enables precise risk control by limiting maximum loss per trade to predetermined levels regardless of market volatility or entry timing. This approach proves essential for systematic trading strategies requiring consistent risk parameters and capital preservation during adverse market conditions.
Lowest low-based stop losses identify recent price support levels by analyzing minimum prices over adjustable lookback periods, placing stops below these technical levels with additional buffer percentages. This methodology aligns stop placement with market structure rather than arbitrary percentage calculations, potentially improving stop loss effectiveness during normal market fluctuations.
The lookback period adjustment enables optimization for different timeframes and market characteristics, with shorter periods providing tighter stops for active trading and longer periods offering broader stops suitable for position trading approaches. Buffer percentage additions ensure stops remain below obvious support levels where other market participants might place similar orders.
## Visual Customization and Interface Design
The strategy provides comprehensive visual customization through eight predefined color schemes designed for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Color scheme options include Classic bright green and red combinations, Ocean themes featuring blue and orange contrasts, Sunset combinations using gold and crimson, and Neon schemes providing high visibility through bright color selections.
Professional color schemes such as Forest, Royal, and Fire themes offer sophisticated alternatives suitable for business presentations and professional trading environments. The Custom color scheme enables precise color selection through individual color picker controls, maintaining maximum flexibility for specific visual requirements.
Label styling options accommodate different chart analysis preferences through text bubble, triangle, and arrow display formats. Size adjustments range from tiny through huge settings, ensuring appropriate visual scaling across different screen resolutions and chart configurations. Text color customization maintains readability across various chart themes and background selections.
## Signal Quality Enhancement Features
The strategy incorporates signal filtering mechanisms designed to eliminate repetitive signal generation during choppy market conditions. The disable repeating signals option prevents consecutive identical signals until opposing conditions occur, reducing overtrading during consolidation phases and improving overall signal quality.
Signal confirmation requirements ensure all technical criteria align before trade execution, reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trading frequency for active strategies. The multi-layered approach balances signal quality against opportunity frequency through adjustable parameter optimization.
Entry and exit visualization provides clear trade identification through customizable labels positioned at relevant price levels. Stop loss visualization displays active risk levels through colored line plots, ensuring complete transparency regarding current risk management parameters during live trading operations.
## Implementation Guidelines and Optimization
The strategy performs effectively across multiple timeframes with optimal results typically occurring on intermediate timeframes ranging from fifteen minutes through four hours. Higher timeframes provide more reliable pattern formation and reduced false signal occurrence, while lower timeframes increase trading frequency at the expense of some signal reliability.
Parameter optimization should focus on RSI threshold adjustments based on market volatility characteristics and candlestick pattern timeframe analysis. Higher RSI thresholds generate fewer but potentially higher quality signals, while lower thresholds increase signal frequency with corresponding reliability considerations.
Stop loss method selection depends on trading style preferences and market analysis philosophy. Entry price-based stops suit systematic approaches requiring consistent risk parameters, while lowest low-based stops align with technical analysis methodologies emphasizing market structure recognition.
## Performance Considerations and Risk Disclosure
The strategy operates exclusively on long positions, making it unsuitable for bear market conditions or extended downtrend periods. Users should consider market environment analysis and broader trend assessment before implementing the strategy during adverse market conditions.
Candlestick pattern reliability varies significantly across different market conditions, with higher reliability typically occurring during trending markets compared to ranging or volatile conditions. Strategy performance may deteriorate during periods of reduced pattern effectiveness or increased market noise.
Risk management through stop loss implementation remains essential for capital preservation during adverse market movements. The strategy does not guarantee profitable outcomes and requires proper position sizing and risk management to prevent significant capital loss during unfavorable trading periods.
## Technical Specifications
The strategy utilizes standard TradingView Pine Script functions ensuring compatibility across all supported instruments and timeframes. Default configuration employs 14-period RSI calculations, adjustable candle stability thresholds, and customizable price decline verification periods optimized for general market conditions.
Initial capital settings default to $10,000 with percentage-based equity allocation, though users can adjust these parameters based on account size and risk tolerance requirements. The strategy maintains detailed trade logs and performance metrics through TradingView's integrated backtesting framework.
Alert integration enables real-time notification of entry and exit signals, stop loss executions, and other significant trading events. The comprehensive alert system supports automated trading applications and manual trade management approaches through detailed signal information provision.
## Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI Algo Pro Strategy provides a systematic framework for candlestick pattern trading with comprehensive risk management and position sizing flexibility. The strategy's strength lies in its multi-layered confirmation approach and sophisticated customization options, enabling adaptation to various trading styles and market conditions.
Successful implementation requires understanding of candlestick pattern analysis principles and appropriate parameter optimization for specific market characteristics. The strategy serves traders seeking automated execution of proven technical analysis techniques while maintaining comprehensive control over risk management and position sizing methodologies.
Cerca negli script per "bitcoin"
Mutanabby_AI __ OSC+ST+SQZMOMMutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM: Multi-Component Trading Analysis Tool
Overview
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator combines three proven technical analysis components into a unified trading system, providing comprehensive market analysis through integrated oscillator signals, trend identification, and volatility assessment.
Core Components
Wave Trend Oscillator (OSC): Identifies overbought and oversold market conditions using exponential moving average calculations. Key threshold levels include overbought zones at 60 and 53, with oversold areas marked at -60 and -53. Crossover signals between the two oscillator lines generate entry opportunities, displayed as colored circles on the chart for easy identification.
Supertrend Indicator (ST): Determines overall market direction using Average True Range calculations with a 2.5 factor and 10-period ATR configuration. Green lines indicate confirmed uptrends while red lines signal downtrend conditions. The indicator automatically adapts to market volatility changes, providing reliable trend identification across different market environments.
Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM): Compares Bollinger Bands with Keltner Channels to identify consolidation periods and potential breakout scenarios. Black squares indicate squeeze conditions representing low volatility periods, green triangles signal confirmed upward breakouts, and red triangles mark downward breakout confirmations.
Signal Generation Logic
Long Entry Conditions:
Green triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to green
Bullish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from oversold territory
Short Entry Conditions:
Red triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to red
Bearish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from overbought territory
Automated Risk Management
The indicator incorporates comprehensive risk management through ATR-based calculations. Stop losses are automatically positioned at 3x ATR distance from entry points, while three progressive take profit targets are established at 1x, 2x, and 3x ATR multiples respectively. All risk management levels are clearly displayed on the chart using colored lines and informative labels.
When trend direction changes, the system automatically clears previous risk levels and generates new calculations, ensuring all risk parameters remain current and relevant to existing market conditions.
Alert and Notification System
Comprehensive alert framework includes trend change notifications with complete trade setup details, squeeze release alerts for breakout opportunity identification, and trend weakness warnings for active position management. Alert messages contain specific trading pair information, timeframe specifications, and all relevant entry and exit level data.
Implementation Guidelines
Timeframe Selection: Higher timeframes including 4-hour and daily charts provide the most reliable signals for position trading strategies. One-hour charts demonstrate good performance for day trading applications, while 15-30 minute timeframes enable scalping approaches with enhanced risk management requirements.
Risk Management Integration: Limit individual trade risk to 1-2% of total capital using the automatically calculated stop loss levels for precise position sizing. Implement systematic profit-taking at each target level while adjusting stop loss positions to protect accumulated gains.
Market Volatility Adaptation: The indicator's ATR-based calculations automatically adjust to changing market volatility conditions. During high volatility periods, risk management levels appropriately widen, while low volatility conditions result in tighter risk parameters.
Optimization Techniques
Combine indicator signals with fundamental support and resistance level analysis for enhanced signal validation. Monitor volume patterns to confirm breakout strength, particularly when Squeeze Momentum signals develop. Maintain awareness of scheduled economic events that may influence market behavior independent of technical indicator signals.
The multi-component design provides internal signal confirmation through multiple alignment requirements, significantly reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trade frequency for active trading strategies.
Technical Specifications
The Wave Trend Oscillator utilizes customizable channel length (default 10) and average length (default 21) parameters for optimal market sensitivity. Supertrend calculations employ ATR period of 10 with factor multiplier of 2.5 for balanced signal quality. Squeeze Momentum analysis uses Bollinger Band length of 20 periods with 2.0 multiplication factor, combined with Keltner Channel length of 20 periods and 1.5 multiplication factor.
Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator provides a systematic approach to technical market analysis through the integration of proven oscillator, trend, and momentum components. Success requires thorough understanding of each element's functionality and disciplined implementation of proper risk management principles.
Practice with demo trading accounts before live implementation to develop familiarity with signal interpretation and trade management procedures. The indicator's systematic approach effectively reduces emotional decision-making while providing clear, objective guidelines for trade entry, management, and exit strategies across various market conditions.
CVDD Z-ScoreCumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) - The CVDD was created by Willy Woo and is the ratio of the cumulative value of Coin Days Destroyed in USD and the market age (in days). While this indicator is used to detect bottoms normally, an extension is used to allow detection of BTC tops. When the BTC price goes above the CVDD extension, BTC is generally considered to be overvalued. Because the "strength" of the BTC tops has decreased over the cycles, a logarithmic function for the extension was created by fitting past cycles as log extension = slope * time + intercept. This indicator is triggered for a top when the BTC price is above the CVDD extension. For the bottoms, the CVDD is shifted upwards at a default value of 120%. The slope, intercept, and CVDD bottom shift can all be modified in the script.
Now with the automatic Z-Score calculation for ease of classification of Bitcoin's valuation according to this metric.
Created for TRW.
Mayer Multiple Z-ScoreMayer Multiple is a ratio between the current Market Price and its 200 days moving average.
Being a lagging indicator it shows periods of relative value for the asset but does not have much predictive power.
It is worth noting that the indicator relies on a fairly responsive moving average on the scale of a Bitcoin market cycle and as such may be best suited for the swing traders to find zones where price is overbought and oversold within a market cycle.
Added the Z-Score metric for easy classification of the value of Bitcoin according to this indicator. Customizable thresholds from Z-Score calculation as the metric suffers alpha decay / compression.
Created for TRW
[Stratégia] VWAP Mean Magnet v9 (Simple Alert)This strategy is specifically designed for a ranging (sideways-moving) Bitcoin market.
A trade is only opened and signaled on the chart if all three of the following conditions are met simultaneously at the close of a candle:
Zone Entry
The price must cross into the signal zone: the red band for a Short (sell) position, or the green band for a Long (buy) position.
RSI Confirmation
The RSI indicator must also confirm the signal. For a Short, it must go above 65 (overbought condition). For a Long, it must fall below 25 (oversold condition).
Volume Filter
The volume on the entry candle cannot be excessively high. This safety filter is designed to prevent trades during risky, high-momentum breakouts.
On-Chain Signals [LuxAlgo]The On-Chain Signals indicator uses fundamental blockchain metrics to provide traders with an objective technical view of their favorite cryptocurrencies.
It uses IntoTheBlock datasets integrated within TradingView to generate four key signals: Net Network Growth, In the Money, Concentration, and Large Transactions.
Together, these four signals provide traders with an overall directional bias of the market. All of the data can be visualized as a gauge, table, historical plot, or average.
🔶 USAGE
The main goal of this tool is to provide an overall directional bias based on four blockchain signals, each with three possible biases: bearish, neutral, or bullish. The thresholds for each signal bias can be adjusted on the settings panel.
These signals are based on IntoTheBlock's On-Chain Signals.
Net network growth: Change in the total number of addresses over the last seven periods; i.e., how many new addresses are being created.
In the Money: Change in the seven-period moving average of the total supply in the money. This shows how many addresses are profitable.
Concentration: Change in the aggregate addresses of whales and investors from the previous period. These are addresses holding at least 0.1% of the supply. This shows how many addresses are in the hands of a few.
Large Transactions: Changes in the number of transactions over $100,000. This metric tracks convergence or divergence from the 21- and 30-day EMAs and indicates the momentum of large transactions.
All of these signals together form the blockchain's overall directional bias.
Bearish: The number of bearish individual signals is greater than the number of bullish individual signals.
Neutral: The number of bearish individual signals is equal to the number of bullish individual signals.
Bullish: The number of bullish individual signals is greater than the number of bearish individual signals.
If the overall directional bias is bullish, we can expect the price of the observed cryptocurrency to increase. If the bias is bearish, we can expect the price to decrease. If the signal is neutral, the price may be more likely to stay the same.
Traders should be aware of two things. First, the signals provide optimal results when the chart is set to the daily timeframe. Second, the tool uses IntoTheBlock data, which is available on TradingView. Therefore, some cryptocurrencies may not be available.
🔹 Display Mode
Traders have three different display modes at their disposal. These modes can be easily selected from the settings panel. The gauge is set by default.
🔹 Gauge
The gauge will appear in the center of the visible space. Traders can adjust its size using the Scale parameter in the Settings panel. They can also give it a curved effect.
The number of bars displayed directly affects the gauge's resolution: More bars result in better resolution.
The chart above shows the effect that different scale configurations have on the gauge.
🔹 Historical Data
The chart above shows the historical data for each of the four signals.
Traders can use this mode to adjust the thresholds for each signal on the settings panel to fit the behavior of each cryptocurrency. They can also analyze how each metric impacts price behavior over time.
🔹 Average
This display mode provides an easy way to see the overall bias of past prices in order to analyze price behavior in relation to the underlying blockchain's directional bias.
The average is calculated by taking the values of the overall bias as -1 for bearish, 0 for neutral, and +1 for bullish, and then applying a triangular moving average over 20 periods by default. Simple and exponential moving averages are available, and traders can select the period length from the settings panel.
🔶 DETAILS
The four signals are based on IntoTheBlock's On-Chain Signals. We gather the data, manipulate it, and build the signals depending on each threshold.
Net network growth
float netNetworkGrowthData = customData('_TOTALADDRESSES')
float netNetworkGrowth = 100*(netNetworkGrowthData /netNetworkGrowthData - 1)
In the Money
float inTheMoneyData = customData('_INOUTMONEYIN')
float averageBalance = customData('_AVGBALANCE')
float inTheMoneyBalance = inTheMoneyData*averageBalance
float sma = ta.sma(inTheMoneyBalance,7)
float inTheMoney = ta.roc(sma,1)
Concentration
float whalesData = customData('_WHALESPERCENTAGE')
float inverstorsData = customData('_INVESTORSPERCENTAGE')
float bigHands = whalesData+inverstorsData
float concentration = ta.change(bigHands )*100
Large Transactions
float largeTransacionsData = customData('_LARGETXCOUNT')
float largeTX21 = ta.ema(largeTransacionsData,21)
float largeTX30 = ta.ema(largeTransacionsData,30)
float largeTransacions = ((largeTX21 - largeTX30)/largeTX30)*100
🔶 SETTINGS
Display mode: Select between gauge, historical data and average.
Average: Select a smoothing method and length period.
🔹 Thresholds
Net Network Growth : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
In The Money : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
Concentration : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
Transactions : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard : Enable/disable dashboard display
Position : Select dashboard location
Size : Select dashboard size
🔹 Gauge
Scale : Select the size of the gauge
Curved : Enable/disable curved mode
Select Gauge colors for bearish, neutral and bullish bias
🔹 Style
Net Network Growth : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
In The Money : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Concentration : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Large Transacions : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Correlation HeatMap [TradingFinder] Sessions Data Science Stats🔵 Introduction
n financial markets, correlation describes the statistical relationship between the price movements of two assets and how they interact over time. It plays a key role in both trading and investing by helping analyze asset behavior, manage portfolio risk, and understand intermarket dynamics. The Correlation Heatmap is a visual tool that shows how the correlation between multiple assets and a central reference asset (the Main Symbol) changes over time.
It supports four market types forex, stocks, crypto, and a custom mode making it adaptable to different trading environments. The heatmap uses a color-coded grid where warmer tones represent stronger negative correlations and cooler tones indicate stronger positive ones. This intuitive color system allows traders to quickly identify when assets move together or diverge, offering real-time insights that go beyond traditional correlation tables.
🟣 How to Interpret the Heatmap Visually ?
Each cell represents the correlation between the main symbol and one compared asset at a specific time.
Warm colors (e.g. red, orange) suggest strong negative correlation as one asset rises, the other tends to fall.
Cool colors (e.g. blue, green) suggest strong positive correlation both assets tend to move in the same direction.
Lighter shades indicate weaker correlations, while darker shades indicate stronger correlations.
The heatmap updates over time, allowing users to detect changes in correlation during market events or trading sessions.
One of the standout features of this indicator is its ability to overlay global market sessions such as Tokyo, London, New York, or major equity opens directly onto the heatmap timeline. This alignment lets traders observe how correlation structures respond to real-world session changes. For example, they can spot when assets shift from being inversely correlated to moving together as a new session opens, potentially signaling new momentum or macro flow. The customizable symbol setup (including up to 20 compared assets) makes it ideal not only for forex and crypto traders but also for multi-asset and sector-based stock analysis.
🟣 Use Cases and Advantages
Analyze sector rotation in equities by tracking correlation to major indices like SPX or DJI.
Monitor altcoin behavior relative to Bitcoin to find early entry opportunities in crypto markets.
Detect changes in currency alignment with DXY across trading sessions in forex.
Identify correlation breakdowns during market volatility, signaling possible new trends.
Use correlation shifts as confirmation for trade setups or to hedge multi-asset exposure
🔵 How to Use
Correlation is one of the core concepts in financial analysis and allows traders to understand how assets behave in relation to one another. The Correlation Heatmap extends this idea by going beyond a simple number or static matrix. Instead, it presents a dynamic visual map of how correlations shift over time.
In this indicator, a Main Symbol is selected as the reference point for analysis. In standard modes such as forex, stocks, or crypto, the symbol currently shown on the main chart is automatically used as the main symbol. This allows users to begin correlation analysis right away without adjusting any settings.
The horizontal axis of the heatmap shows time, while the vertical axis lists the selected assets. Each cell on the heatmap shows the correlation between that asset and the main symbol at a given moment.
This approach is especially useful for intermarket analysis. In forex, for example, tracking how currency pairs like OANDA:EURUSD EURUSD, FX:GBPUSD GBPUSD, and PEPPERSTONE:AUDUSD AUDUSD correlate with TVC:DXY DXY can give insight into broader capital flow.
If these pairs start showing increasing positive correlation with DXY say, shifting from blue to light green it could signal the start of a new phase or reversal. Conversely, if negative correlation fades gradually, it may suggest weakening relationships and more independent or volatile movement.
In the crypto market, watching how altcoins correlate with Bitcoin can help identify ideal entry points in secondary assets. In the stock market, analyzing how companies within the same sector move in relation to a major index like SP:SPX SPX or DJ:DJI DJI is also a highly effective technique for both technical and fundamental analysts.
This indicator not only visualizes correlation but also displays major market sessions. When enabled, this feature helps traders observe how correlation behavior changes at the start of each session, whether it's Tokyo, London, New York, or the opening of stock exchanges. Many key shifts, breakouts, or reversals tend to happen around these times, and the heatmap makes them easy to spot.
Another important feature is the market selection mode. Users can switch between forex, crypto, stocks, or custom markets and see correlation behavior specific to each one. In custom mode, users can manually select any combination of symbols for more advanced or personalized analysis. This makes the heatmap valuable not only for forex traders but also for stock traders, crypto analysts, and multi-asset strategists.
Finally, the heatmap's color-coded design helps users make sense of the data quickly. Warm colors such as red and orange reflect stronger negative correlations, while cool colors like blue and green represent stronger positive relationships. This simplicity and clarity make the tool accessible to both beginners and experienced traders.
🔵 Settings
Correlation Period: Allows you to set how many historical bars are used for calculating correlation. A higher number means a smoother, slower-moving heatmap, while a lower number makes it more responsive to recent changes.
Select Market: Lets you choose between Forex, Stock, Crypto, or Custom. In the first three options, the chart’s active symbol is automatically used as the Main Symbol. In Custom mode, you can manually define the Main Symbol and up to 20 Compared Symbols.
Show Open Session: Enables the display of major trading sessions such as Tokyo, London, New York, or equity market opening hours directly on the timeline. This helps you connect correlation shifts with real-world market activity.
Market Mode: Lets you select whether the displayed sessions relate to the forex or stock market.
🔵 Conclusion
The Correlation Heatmap is a robust and flexible tool for analyzing the relationship between assets across different markets. By tracking how correlations change in real time, traders can better identify alignment or divergence between symbols and gain valuable insights into market structure.
Support for multiple asset classes, session overlays, and intuitive visual cues make this one of the most effective tools for intermarket analysis.
Whether you’re looking to manage portfolio risk, validate entry points, or simply understand capital flow across markets, this heatmap provides a clear and actionable perspective that you can rely on.
BTC CME Futures Gaps (BTCGapHunt_CME)BTC CME Futures Gaps Indicator
Overview
This indicator visualises price gaps between the daily close and open of Bitcoin CME futures (CME:BTC1!). These gaps are often revisited ("filled") by market price action and may serve as technical targets.
Thanks
... to Maven and the Blockchain Masons (x.com/Masons_DAO) to push me on this topic.
What Is a CME Gap?
CME Bitcoin Futures do not trade 24/7. Gaps form when the market reopens at a different price than where it last closed.
Gaps are often used as support/resistance or liquidity targets.
This indicator tracks, visualises, and alerts on these gaps.
Key Features
Automatic gap detection using daily open/close on CME:BTC1!
Dynamic gap size threshold based on ATR (Average True Range)
Highlight unfilled gaps and track partial fills visually
Alerts for gap formation and fill events
Parameter overlay showing real-time settings
Supported and Overrideable Parameters
ATR Length: Defines the lookback period for ATR calculation (default: 14)
Gap Size Multiplier: Multiplies the ATR to set the dynamic gap threshold (default: 1.0)
Proximity Threshold: Price distance from gap edge to consider it filled (default: 100 USD)
Max Gaps Tracked: Maximum number of concurrent gaps shown (default: 50)
Alerts Enabled: Toggle alerts for gap formation and gap fill events
How the Gap Size Is Calculated
Minimum Gap Size = ATR(14) * Gap Size Multiplier
ATR Length and Gap Size Multiplier are configurable.
Gap threshold adjusts dynamically with market volatility.
Visual Guide
Red Box: Fully unfilled gap
Lemon Yellow Box: Partially filled gap
Right Margin Boxes: Snapshot of unfilled gaps for quick access
Top-Right Panel: Current ATR, Gap Size, Thresholds, etc.
Alerts
Gap Formed: A new gap is detected.
Gap Filled: The gap is either partially or fully filled.
Recommended Timeframes
1H, 4H, 1D (best resolution)
Designed for BTC spot/perpetual charts (e.g., BTCUSD, BTCUSDT)
How To Use
Add the script to your BTC chart.
Monitor red/yellow boxes for unfilled gaps.
Check config panel for current threshold and settings.
Enable alerts via TradingView for real-time updates.
Notes
Up to 50 gaps are tracked (adjustable).
Data source: CME futures via request.security.
All visuals and alerts are time-synced with your chart.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
RS to BTC – EYASU V1RS to BTC – Full Suite
📝 Description:
This script tracks the relative strength of any coin against Bitcoin (RSBTC) in real-time. It is designed for altcoin traders who want to identify which coins are outperforming or underperforming BTC across multiple timeframes.
Features:
📈 RSBTC Line: Real-time plot of the altcoin’s price divided by BTC price
🟦 RSBTC Moving Average: Smooths the RS line to help identify trends
🔵 RSBTC RSI (Hidden by default): Highlights momentum of RS to detect overbought/oversold zones
🚨 Alerts: Set alerts for RSBTC crossing its moving average and RSI levels
Ideal for:
Spotting early altcoin breakouts
Timing entries/exits based on BTC-relative performance
Filtering for strong/weak coins before macro news
📱 Fully mobile compatible. Load it on any USDT chart — it auto-detects BTC and gives RS instantly.
Created by: @Eyasustock
License: Mozilla Public License 2.0
Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer [BackQuant]Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer
Overview
The Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer is a comprehensive analytical tool that calculates Black-Scholes option Greeks up to the third order for Bitcoin and Ethereum options. It integrates implied volatility data from VOLMEX indices and provides multiple visualization layers for options risk analysis.
Quick Introduction to Options Trading
Options are financial derivatives that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specific time period (expiration date). Understanding options requires grasping two fundamental concepts:
Call Options : Give the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price. Calls increase in value when the underlying price rises above the strike price.
Put Options : Give the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price. Puts increase in value when the underlying price falls below the strike price.
The Language of Options: Greeks
Options traders use "Greeks" - mathematical measures that describe how an option's price changes in response to various factors:
Delta : How much the option price moves for each $1 change in the underlying
Gamma : How fast delta changes as the underlying moves
Theta : Daily time decay - how much value erodes each day
Vega : Sensitivity to implied volatility changes
Rho : Sensitivity to interest rate changes
These Greeks are essential for understanding risk. Just as a pilot needs instruments to fly safely, options traders need Greeks to navigate market conditions and manage positions effectively.
Why Volatility Matters
Implied volatility (IV) represents the market's expectation of future price movement. High IV means:
Options are more expensive (higher premiums)
Market expects larger price swings
Better for option sellers
Low IV means:
Options are cheaper
Market expects smaller moves
Better for option buyers
This indicator helps you visualize and quantify these critical concepts in real-time.
Back to the Indicator
Key Features & Components
1. Complete Greeks Calculations
The indicator computes all standard Greeks using the Black-Scholes-Merton model adapted for cryptocurrency markets:
First Order Greeks:
Delta (Δ) : Measures the rate of change of option price with respect to underlying price movement. Ranges from 0 to 1 for calls and -1 to 0 for puts.
Vega (ν) : Sensitivity to implied volatility changes, expressed as price change per 1% change in IV.
Theta (Θ) : Time decay measured in dollars per day, showing how much value erodes with each passing day.
Rho (ρ) : Interest rate sensitivity, measuring price change per 1% change in risk-free rate.
Second Order Greeks:
Gamma (Γ) : Rate of change of delta with respect to underlying price, indicating how quickly delta will change.
Vanna : Cross-derivative measuring delta's sensitivity to volatility changes and vega's sensitivity to price changes.
Charm : Delta decay over time, showing how delta changes as expiration approaches.
Vomma (Volga) : Vega's sensitivity to volatility changes, important for volatility trading strategies.
Third Order Greeks:
Speed : Rate of change of gamma with respect to underlying price (∂Γ/∂S).
Zomma : Gamma's sensitivity to volatility changes (∂Γ/∂σ).
Color : Gamma decay over time (∂Γ/∂T).
Ultima : Third-order volatility sensitivity (∂²ν/∂σ²).
2. Implied Volatility Analysis
The indicator includes a sophisticated IV ranking system that analyzes current implied volatility relative to its recent history:
IV Rank : Percentile ranking of current IV within its 30-day range (0-100%)
IV Percentile : Percentage of days in the lookback period where IV was lower than current
IV Regime Classification : Very Low, Low, High, or Very High
Color-Coded Headers : Visual indication of volatility regime in the Greeks table
Trading regime suggestions based on IV rank:
IV Rank > 75%: "Favor selling options" (high premium environment)
IV Rank 50-75%: "Neutral / Sell spreads"
IV Rank 25-50%: "Neutral / Buy spreads"
IV Rank < 25%: "Favor buying options" (low premium environment)
3. Gamma Zones Visualization
Gamma zones display horizontal price levels where gamma exposure is highest:
Purple horizontal lines indicate gamma concentration areas
Opacity scaling : Darker shading represents higher gamma values
Percentage labels : Shows gamma intensity relative to ATM gamma
Customizable zones : 3-10 price levels can be analyzed
These zones are critical for understanding:
Pin risk around expiration
Potential for explosive price movements
Optimal strike selection for gamma trading
Market maker hedging flows
4. Probability Cones (Expected Move)
The probability cones project expected price ranges based on current implied volatility:
1 Standard Deviation (68% probability) : Shown with dashed green/red lines
2 Standard Deviations (95% probability) : Shown with dotted green/red lines
Time-scaled projection : Cones widen as expiration approaches
Lognormal distribution : Accounts for positive skew in asset prices
Applications:
Strike selection for credit spreads
Identifying high-probability profit zones
Setting realistic price targets
Risk management for undefined risk strategies
5. Breakeven Analysis
The indicator plots key price levels for options positions:
White line : Strike price
Green line : Call breakeven (Strike + Premium)
Red line : Put breakeven (Strike - Premium)
These levels update dynamically as option premiums change with market conditions.
6. Payoff Structure Visualization
Optional P&L labels display profit/loss at expiration for various price levels:
Shows P&L at -2 sigma, -1 sigma, ATM, +1 sigma, and +2 sigma price levels
Separate calculations for calls and puts
Helps visualize option payoff diagrams directly on the chart
Updates based on current option premiums
Configuration Options
Calculation Parameters
Asset Selection : BTC or ETH (limited by VOLMEX IV data availability)
Expiry Options : 1D, 7D, 14D, 30D, 60D, 90D, 180D
Strike Mode : ATM (uses current spot) or Custom (manual strike input)
Risk-Free Rate : Adjustable annual rate for discounting calculations
Display Settings
Greeks Display : Toggle first, second, and third-order Greeks independently
Visual Elements : Enable/disable probability cones, gamma zones, P&L labels
Table Customization : Position (6 options) and text size (4 sizes)
Price Levels : Show/hide strike and breakeven lines
Technical Implementation
Data Sources
Spot Prices : INDEX:BTCUSD and INDEX:ETHUSD for underlying prices
Implied Volatility : VOLMEX:BVIV (Bitcoin) and VOLMEX:EVIV (Ethereum) indices
Real-Time Updates : All calculations update with each price tick
Mathematical Framework
The indicator implements the full Black-Scholes-Merton model:
Standard normal distribution approximations using Abramowitz and Stegun method
Proper annualization factors (365-day year)
Continuous compounding for interest rate calculations
Lognormal price distribution assumptions
Alert Conditions
Four categories of automated alerts:
Price-Based : Underlying crossing strike price
Gamma-Based : 50% surge detection for explosive moves
Moneyness : Deep ITM alerts when |delta| > 0.9
Time/Volatility : Near expiration and vega spike warnings
Practical Applications
For Options Traders
Monitor all Greeks in real-time for active positions
Identify optimal entry/exit points using IV rank
Visualize risk through probability cones and gamma zones
Track time decay and plan rolls
For Volatility Traders
Compare IV across different expiries
Identify mean reversion opportunities
Monitor vega exposure across strikes
Track higher-order volatility sensitivities
Conclusion
The Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer transforms complex mathematical models into actionable visual insights. By combining institutional-grade Greeks calculations with intuitive overlays like probability cones and gamma zones, it bridges the gap between theoretical options knowledge and practical trading application.
Whether you're:
A directional trader using options for leverage
A volatility trader capturing IV mean reversion
A hedger managing portfolio risk
Or simply learning about options mechanics
This tool provides the quantitative foundation needed for informed decision-making in cryptocurrency options markets.
Remember that options trading involves substantial risk and complexity. The Greeks and visualizations provided by this indicator are tools for analysis - they should be combined with proper risk management, position sizing, and a thorough understanding of options strategies.
As crypto options markets continue to mature and grow, having professional-grade analytics becomes increasingly important. This indicator ensures you're equipped with the same analytical capabilities used by institutional traders, adapted specifically for the unique characteristics of 24/7 cryptocurrency markets.
BTC 5M Scalper: 3EMA Reversal v1.6 Lite by AIOBest Timeframe: 5 minutes!!
Optimal Asset: BTC/USDT (Bitcoin)
Stop Placement: Below the signal candle's low (for long) / Above the signal candle's high (for short)
Risk/Reward: Minimum 1:2 ratio recommended
Description:
This 3EMA Reversal strategy identifies trend continuation signals using:
Fast EMA (20) and Slow EMA (50) crossover
Volume confirmation (above 20-period average)
Engulfing candle pattern
Built-in stop loss and take profit levels
Usage Instructions:
Apply to BTC/USDT 5-minute chart
Enter long when green triangle appears (stop below signal candle)
Enter short when red triangle appears (stop above signal candle)
TP levels are automatically calculated based on your RR setting
Pro Tip: Combine with 1-hour trend analysis for better results. The strategy works best in trending markets with above-average volume.
BTC Unified Overlay w/ Auto FibBTC Unified Overlay w/ Auto Fib, RSI, VWAP & Volume
This overlay combines essential indicators into one visual script designed for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) trading on lower timeframes:
🔁 Auto Fibonacci Zones – Auto-detects 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels using recent price swings
🎯 RSI(14) – Includes cluster and crossover tagging for overbought/oversold zones
📊 Volume Histogram with 10-bar Moving Average – Highlights breakout bars
📏 VWAP with ±1SD and ±2SD Bands – Shows dynamic fair value range
🟢 Breakout Signal Tagging – Detects high-volume breakout opportunities
Ideal for traders who want a unified, color-coded visualization of key momentum and structure indicators.
Script optimized for screenshot automation and compatible with external webhook pipelines.
BTC 1m Chop Top/Bottom Reversal (Stable Entries)Strategy Description: BTC 5m Chop Top/Bottom Reversal (Stable Entries)
This strategy is engineered to capture precise reversal points during Bitcoin’s choppy or sideways price action on the 5-minute timeframe. It identifies short-term tops and bottoms using a confluence of volatility bands, momentum indicators, and price structure, optimized for high-probability scalping and intraday reversals.
Core Logic:
Volatility Filter: Uses an EMA with ATR bands to define overextended price zones.
Momentum Divergence: Confirms reversals using RSI and MACD histogram shifts.
Price Action Filter: Requires candle confirmation in the direction of the trade.
Locked Signal Logic: Prevents repaints and disappearing trades by confirming signals only once per bar.
Trade Parameters:
Short Entry: Above upper band + overbought RSI + weakening MACD + bearish candle
Long Entry: Below lower band + oversold RSI + strengthening MACD + bullish candle
Take Profit: ±0.75%
Stop Loss: ±0.4%
This setup is tuned for traders using tight risk control and leverage, where execution precision and minimal drawdown tolerance are critical.
BTC Fractal Momentum ExtremesDescription – BTC Fractal Momentum Extremes (BTCFME)
BTC Fractal Momentum Extremes (BTCFME) is a multi-factor, multi-method technical indicator designed to detect potential top and bottom reversal points in Bitcoin price action by integrating a confluence of unconventional signals. It combines fractals, adaptive momentum, volume dynamics, price velocity convergence, and market structure shifts — all filtered through real-time volatility and contextualized by temporal market conditions.
This tool is best used by traders looking to spot high-confidence turning points on intraday or swing timeframes, and works particularly well in volatile, momentum-driven environments.
Key Components & Methodology
BTCFME utilizes five independent signal-generation methods:
1. Fractal Volume Divergence
Detects reversal fractals in price (5-bar patterns) and validates them with volume anomalies:
Volume spikes (e.g., climax moves) or
Volume exhaustion (e.g., waning participation)
2. Adaptive Momentum Oscillator
Calculates momentum normalized by ATR-adjusted volatility, filtering out noise in choppy markets. It spots directional shifts when momentum inflects from extreme levels.
3. Market Structure Breaks
Identifies dynamic support and resistance using a configurable lookback, and flags potential breakouts or breakdowns from those levels.
4. Price Velocity Convergence
Analyzes the rate of change (velocity) and its acceleration. When both compress within a narrow volatility range, it signals a potential inflection zone.
5. Temporal Confluence Filter
Signals are only considered valid during active market hours (9 AM – 4 PM, excluding weekends) to reduce false positives during illiquid or inefficient trading periods.
Signal Logic & Sensitivity
Signals are generated when at least 3 out of 4 core methods agree, controlled by the Signal Sensitivity setting:
1 (High Sensitivity) = Trigger signals with fewer confirmations
5 (Low Sensitivity) = Require stronger multi-factor confluence
🔹 Buy (Bottom) Signals trigger when:
Bullish fractals appear
Momentum is deeply negative but improving
Price tests structure support
Velocity compresses below average
🔺 Sell (Top) Signals trigger when:
Bearish fractals with volume spikes appear
Momentum peaks and starts to decline
Price tests resistance
Velocity compresses near highs
Visual Features
Arrows: Buy signals = green arrow below candle. Sell signals = red arrow above candle.
Background Color: Indicates overall momentum regime (green = bullish bias, red = bearish, gray = neutral).
Dynamic Support & Resistance Lines: Based on recent swing highs/lows.
Signal Table (top-right): Shows real-time stats on:
Momentum value
Volatility factor
Volume strength (vs. 20-SMA)
Market structure status
Alerts
You can set alerts using the built-in conditions:
BTC Bottom Alert → Fires on potential market bottoms.
BTC Top Alert → Fires on potential market tops.
These alerts are filtered to avoid whipsaw conditions, by checking that opposite signals did not trigger in the last 2 candles.
How to Use
Timeframes: Best suited for 1H–4H and Daily BTC charts, but adaptable to others with parameter tuning.
Confirm with Price Action: Use BTCFME signals in conjunction with candlestick patterns or S/R zones for best results.
Adjust Sensitivity: Lower values catch more signals (good for scalping), higher values filter for stronger reversals (ideal for swing trades).
Use in Trending or Reversing Markets: BTCFME performs best during trending environments or volatile reversals — avoid during prolonged flat/ranging zones.
Notes & Recommendations
BTCFME is not a standalone buy/sell signal; combine it with risk management and trend confirmation tools.
Avoid using it during extremely low-volume sessions (e.g., late weekends).
Adjust parameters based on BTC's evolving volatility and your trading style.
Drawdown Distribution Analysis (DDA) ACADEMIC FOUNDATION AND RESEARCH BACKGROUND
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator implements quantitative risk management principles, drawing upon decades of academic research in portfolio theory, behavioral finance, and statistical risk modeling. This tool provides risk assessment capabilities for traders and portfolio managers seeking to understand their current position within historical drawdown patterns.
The theoretical foundation of this indicator rests on modern portfolio theory as established by Markowitz (1952), who introduced the fundamental concepts of risk-return optimization that continue to underpin contemporary portfolio management. Sharpe (1966) later expanded this framework by developing risk-adjusted performance measures, most notably the Sharpe ratio, which remains a cornerstone of performance evaluation in financial markets.
The specific focus on drawdown analysis builds upon the work of Chekhlov, Uryasev and Zabarankin (2005), who provided the mathematical framework for incorporating drawdown measures into portfolio optimization. Their research demonstrated that traditional mean-variance optimization often fails to capture the full risk profile of investment strategies, particularly regarding sequential losses. More recent work by Goldberg and Mahmoud (2017) has brought these theoretical concepts into practical application within institutional risk management frameworks.
Value at Risk methodology, as comprehensively outlined by Jorion (2007), provides the statistical foundation for the risk measurement components of this indicator. The coherent risk measures framework developed by Artzner et al. (1999) ensures that the risk metrics employed satisfy the mathematical properties required for sound risk management decisions. Additionally, the focus on downside risk follows the framework established by Sortino and Price (1994), while the drawdown-adjusted performance measures implement concepts introduced by Young (1991).
MATHEMATICAL METHODOLOGY
The core calculation methodology centers on a peak-tracking algorithm that continuously monitors the maximum price level achieved and calculates the percentage decline from this peak. The drawdown at any time t is defined as DD(t) = (P(t) - Peak(t)) / Peak(t) × 100, where P(t) represents the asset price at time t and Peak(t) represents the running maximum price observed up to time t.
Statistical distribution analysis forms the analytical backbone of the indicator. The system calculates key percentiles using the ta.percentile_nearest_rank() function to establish the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of the historical drawdown distribution. This approach provides a complete picture of how the current drawdown compares to historical patterns.
Statistical significance assessment employs standard deviation bands at one, two, and three standard deviations from the mean, following the conventional approach where the upper band equals μ + nσ and the lower band equals μ - nσ. The Z-score calculation, defined as Z = (DD - μ) / σ, enables the identification of statistically extreme events, with thresholds set at |Z| > 2.5 for extreme drawdowns and |Z| > 3.0 for severe drawdowns, corresponding to confidence levels exceeding 99.4% and 99.7% respectively.
ADVANCED RISK METRICS
The indicator incorporates several risk-adjusted performance measures that extend beyond basic drawdown analysis. The Sharpe ratio calculation follows the standard formula Sharpe = (R - Rf) / σ, where R represents the annualized return, Rf represents the risk-free rate, and σ represents the annualized volatility. The system supports dynamic sourcing of the risk-free rate from the US 10-year Treasury yield or allows for manual specification.
The Sortino ratio addresses the limitation of the Sharpe ratio by focusing exclusively on downside risk, calculated as Sortino = (R - Rf) / σd, where σd represents the downside deviation computed using only negative returns. This measure provides a more accurate assessment of risk-adjusted performance for strategies that exhibit asymmetric return distributions.
The Calmar ratio, defined as Annual Return divided by the absolute value of Maximum Drawdown, offers a direct measure of return per unit of drawdown risk. This metric proves particularly valuable for comparing strategies or assets with different risk profiles, as it directly relates performance to the maximum historical loss experienced.
Value at Risk calculations provide quantitative estimates of potential losses at specified confidence levels. The 95% VaR corresponds to the 5th percentile of the drawdown distribution, while the 99% VaR corresponds to the 1st percentile. Conditional VaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, estimates the average loss in the worst 5% of scenarios, providing insight into tail risk that standard VaR measures may not capture.
To enable fair comparison across assets with different volatility characteristics, the indicator calculates volatility-adjusted drawdowns using the formula Adjusted DD = Raw DD / (Volatility / 20%). This normalization allows for meaningful comparison between high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies and lower-volatility instruments like government bonds.
The Risk Efficiency Score represents a composite measure ranging from 0 to 100 that combines the Sharpe ratio and current percentile rank to provide a single metric for quick asset assessment. Higher scores indicate superior risk-adjusted performance relative to historical patterns.
COLOR SCHEMES AND VISUALIZATION
The indicator implements eight distinct color themes designed to accommodate different analytical preferences and market contexts. The EdgeTools theme employs a corporate blue palette that matches the design system used throughout the edgetools.org platform, ensuring visual consistency across analytical tools.
The Gold theme specifically targets precious metals analysis with warm tones that complement gold chart analysis, while the Quant theme provides a grayscale scheme suitable for analytical environments that prioritize clarity over aesthetic appeal. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color coding, using green to represent greed-driven market conditions and red to indicate fear-driven environments.
Additional themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes, each designed for specific market conditions or user preferences. All themes function effectively with both dark and light mode trading platforms, ensuring accessibility across different user interface configurations.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Asset allocation and portfolio construction represent primary use cases for this analytical framework. When comparing multiple assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, traders can examine Risk Efficiency Scores to identify instruments offering superior risk-adjusted performance. The 95% VaR provides worst-case scenario comparisons, while volatility-adjusted drawdowns enable fair comparison despite varying volatility profiles.
The practical decision framework suggests that assets with Risk Efficiency Scores above 70 may be suitable for aggressive portfolio allocations, scores between 40 and 70 indicate moderate allocation potential, and scores below 40 suggest defensive positioning or avoidance. These thresholds should be adjusted based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions.
Risk management and position sizing applications utilize the current percentile rank to guide allocation decisions. When the current drawdown ranks above the 75th percentile of historical data, indicating that current conditions are better than 75% of historical periods, position increases may be warranted. Conversely, when percentile rankings fall below the 25th percentile, indicating elevated risk conditions, position reductions become advisable.
Institutional portfolio monitoring applications include hedge fund risk dashboard implementations where multiple strategies can be monitored simultaneously. Sharpe ratio tracking identifies deteriorating risk-adjusted performance across strategies, VaR monitoring ensures portfolios remain within established risk limits, and drawdown duration tracking provides valuable information for investor reporting requirements.
Market timing applications combine the statistical analysis with trend identification techniques. Strong buy signals may emerge when risk levels register as "Low" in conjunction with established uptrends, while extreme risk levels combined with downtrends may indicate exit or hedging opportunities. Z-scores exceeding 3.0 often signal statistically oversold conditions that may precede trend reversals.
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND VALIDATION
The indicator provides 95% confidence intervals around current drawdown levels using the standard formula CI = μ ± 1.96σ. This statistical framework enables users to assess whether current conditions fall within normal market variation or represent statistically significant departures from historical patterns.
Risk level classification employs a dynamic assessment system based on percentile ranking within the historical distribution. Low risk designation applies when current drawdowns perform better than 50% of historical data, moderate risk encompasses the 25th to 50th percentile range, high risk covers the 10th to 25th percentile range, and extreme risk applies to the worst 10% of historical drawdowns.
Sample size considerations play a crucial role in statistical reliability. For daily data, the system requires a minimum of 252 trading days (approximately one year) but performs better with 500 or more observations. Weekly data analysis benefits from at least 104 weeks (two years) of history, while monthly data requires a minimum of 60 months (five years) for reliable statistical inference.
IMPLEMENTATION BEST PRACTICES
Parameter optimization should consider the specific characteristics of different asset classes. Equity analysis typically benefits from 500-day lookback periods with 21-day smoothing, while cryptocurrency analysis may employ 365-day lookback periods with 14-day smoothing to account for higher volatility patterns. Fixed income analysis often requires longer lookback periods of 756 days with 34-day smoothing to capture the lower volatility environment.
Multi-timeframe analysis provides hierarchical risk assessment capabilities. Daily timeframe analysis supports tactical risk management decisions, weekly analysis informs strategic positioning choices, and monthly analysis guides long-term allocation decisions. This hierarchical approach ensures that risk assessment occurs at appropriate temporal scales for different investment objectives.
Integration with complementary indicators enhances the analytical framework. Trend indicators such as RSI and moving averages provide directional bias context, volume analysis helps confirm the severity of drawdown conditions, and volatility measures like VIX or ATR assist in market regime identification.
ALERT SYSTEM AND AUTOMATION
The automated alert system monitors five distinct categories of risk events. Risk level changes trigger notifications when drawdowns move between risk categories, enabling proactive risk management responses. Statistical significance alerts activate when Z-scores exceed established threshold levels of 2.5 or 3.0 standard deviations.
New maximum drawdown alerts notify users when historical maximum levels are exceeded, indicating entry into uncharted risk territory. Poor risk efficiency alerts trigger when the composite risk efficiency score falls below 30, suggesting deteriorating risk-adjusted performance. Sharpe ratio decline alerts activate when risk-adjusted performance turns negative, indicating that returns no longer compensate for the risk undertaken.
TRADING STRATEGIES
Conservative risk parity strategies can be implemented by monitoring Risk Efficiency Scores across a diversified asset portfolio. Monthly rebalancing maintains equal risk contribution from each asset, with allocation reductions triggered when risk levels reach "High" status and complete exits executed when "Extreme" risk levels emerge. This approach typically results in lower overall portfolio volatility, improved risk-adjusted returns, and reduced maximum drawdown periods.
Tactical asset rotation strategies compare Risk Efficiency Scores across different asset classes to guide allocation decisions. Assets with scores exceeding 60 receive overweight allocations, while assets scoring below 40 receive underweight positions. Percentile rankings provide timing guidance for allocation adjustments, creating a systematic approach to asset allocation that responds to changing risk-return profiles.
Market timing strategies with statistical edges can be constructed by entering positions when Z-scores fall below -2.5, indicating statistically oversold conditions, and scaling out when Z-scores exceed 2.5, suggesting overbought conditions. The 95% VaR serves as a stop-loss reference point, while trend confirmation indicators provide additional validation for position entry and exit decisions.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
Several statistical limitations affect the interpretation and application of these risk measures. Historical bias represents a fundamental challenge, as past drawdown patterns may not accurately predict future risk characteristics, particularly during structural market changes or regime shifts. Sample dependence means that results can be sensitive to the selected lookback period, with shorter periods providing more responsive but potentially less stable estimates.
Market regime changes can significantly alter the statistical parameters underlying the analysis. During periods of structural market evolution, historical distributions may provide poor guidance for future expectations. Additionally, many financial assets exhibit return distributions with fat tails that deviate from normal distribution assumptions, potentially leading to underestimation of extreme event probabilities.
Practical limitations include execution risk, where theoretical signals may not translate directly into actual trading results due to factors such as slippage, timing delays, and market impact. Liquidity constraints mean that risk metrics assume perfect liquidity, which may not hold during stressed market conditions when risk management becomes most critical.
Transaction costs are not incorporated into risk-adjusted return calculations, potentially overstating the attractiveness of strategies that require frequent trading. Behavioral factors represent another limitation, as human psychology may override statistical signals, particularly during periods of extreme market stress when disciplined risk management becomes most challenging.
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION
Performance optimization ensures reliable operation across different market conditions and timeframes. All technical analysis functions are extracted from conditional statements to maintain Pine Script compliance and ensure consistent execution. Memory efficiency is achieved through optimized variable scoping and array usage, while computational speed benefits from vectorized calculations where possible.
Data quality requirements include clean price data without gaps or errors that could distort distribution analysis. Sufficient historical data is essential, with a minimum of 100 bars required and 500 or more preferred for reliable statistical inference. Time alignment across related assets ensures meaningful comparison when conducting multi-asset analysis.
The configuration parameters are organized into logical groups to enhance usability. Core settings include the Distribution Analysis Period (100-2000 bars), Drawdown Smoothing Period (1-50 bars), and Price Source selection. Advanced metrics settings control risk-free rate sourcing, either from live market data or fixed rate specification, along with toggles for various risk-adjusted metric calculations.
Display options provide flexibility in visual presentation, including color theme selection from eight available schemes, automatic dark mode optimization, and control over table display, position lines, percentile bands, and standard deviation overlays. These options ensure that the indicator can be adapted to different analytical workflows and visual preferences.
CONCLUSION
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator provides risk management tools for traders seeking to understand their current position within historical risk patterns. By combining established statistical methodology with practical usability features, the tool enables evidence-based risk assessment and portfolio optimization decisions.
The implementation draws upon established academic research while providing practical features that address real-world trading requirements. Dynamic risk-free rate integration ensures accurate risk-adjusted performance calculations, while multiple color schemes accommodate different analytical preferences and use cases.
Academic compliance is maintained through transparent methodology and acknowledgment of limitations. The tool implements peer-reviewed statistical techniques while clearly communicating the constraints and assumptions underlying the analysis. This approach ensures that users can make informed decisions about the appropriate application of the risk assessment framework within their broader trading and investment processes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M. and Heath, D. (1999) 'Coherent Measures of Risk', Mathematical Finance, 9(3), pp. 203-228.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S. and Zabarankin, M. (2005) 'Drawdown Measure in Portfolio Optimization', International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 8(1), pp. 13-58.
Goldberg, L.R. and Mahmoud, O. (2017) 'Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again', Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 10(2), pp. 140-152.
Jorion, P. (2007) Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Markowitz, H. (1952) 'Portfolio Selection', Journal of Finance, 7(1), pp. 77-91.
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) 'Mutual Fund Performance', Journal of Business, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
Sortino, F.A. and Price, L.N. (1994) 'Performance Measurement in a Downside Risk Framework', Journal of Investing, 3(3), pp. 59-64.
Young, T.W. (1991) 'Calmar Ratio: A Smoother Tool', Futures, 20(1), pp. 40-42.
BUY in HASH RibbonsHash Ribbons Indicator (BUY Signal)
A TradingView Pine Script v6 implementation for identifying Bitcoin miner capitulation (“Springs”) and recovery phases based on hash rate data. It marks potential low-risk buying opportunities by tracking short- and long-term moving averages of the network hash rate.
⸻
Key Features
• Hash Rate SMAs
• Short-term SMA (default: 30 days)
• Long-term SMA (default: 60 days)
• Phase Markers
• Gray circle: Short SMA crosses below long SMA (start of capitulation)
• White circles: Ongoing capitulation, with brighter white when the short SMA turns upward
• Yellow circle: Short SMA crosses back above long SMA (end of capitulation)
• Orange circle: Buy signal once hash rate recovery aligns with bullish price momentum (10-day price SMA crosses above 20-day price SMA)
• Display Modes
• Ribbons: Plots the two SMAs as colored bands—red for capitulation, green for recovery
• Oscillator: Shows the percentage difference between SMAs as a histogram (red for negative, blue for positive)
• Optional Overlays
• Bitcoin halving dates (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) with dashed lines and labels
• Raw hash rate data in EH/s
• Alerts
• Configurable alerts for capitulation start, recovery, and buy signals
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How It Works
1. Data Source: Fetches daily hash rate values from a selected provider (e.g., IntoTheBlock, Quandl).
2. Capitulation Detection: When the 30-day SMA falls below the 60-day SMA, miners are likely capitulating.
3. Recovery Identification: A rising 30-day SMA during capitulation signals miner recovery.
4. Buy Signal: Confirmed when the hash rate recovery coincides with a bullish shift in price momentum (10-day price SMA > 20-day price SMA).
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Inputs
Hash Rate Short SMA: 30 days
Hash Rate Long SMA: 60 days
Plot Signals: On
Plot Halvings: Off
Plot Raw Hash Rate: Off
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Considerations
• Timeframe: Best applied on daily charts to capture meaningful miner behavior.
• Data Reliability: Ensure the chosen hash rate source provides consistent, gap-free data.
• Risk Management: Use alongside other technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) and fundamental analysis.
• Backtesting: Evaluate performance over different market cycles before live deployment.
