Adaptive Fibonacci Pullback System -FibonacciFluxAdaptive Fibonacci Pullback System (AFPS) - FibonacciFlux
This work is licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). Original concepts by FibonacciFlux.
Abstract
The Adaptive Fibonacci Pullback System (AFPS) presents a sophisticated, institutional-grade algorithmic strategy engineered for high-probability trend pullback entries. Developed by FibonacciFlux, AFPS uniquely integrates a proprietary Multi-Fibonacci Supertrend engine (0.618, 1.618, 2.618 ratios) for harmonic volatility assessment, an Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) Channel providing dynamic market context, and a synergistic Multi-Timeframe (MTF) filter suite (RSI, MACD, Volume). This strategy transcends simple indicator combinations through its strict, multi-stage confluence validation logic. Historical simulations suggest that specific MTF filter configurations can yield exceptional performance metrics, potentially achieving Profit Factors exceeding 2.6 , indicative of institutional-level potential, while maintaining controlled risk under realistic trading parameters (managed equity risk, commission, slippage).
4 hourly MTF filtering
1. Introduction: Elevating Pullback Trading with Adaptive Confluence
Traditional pullback strategies often struggle with noise, false signals, and adapting to changing market dynamics. AFPS addresses these challenges by introducing a novel framework grounded in Fibonacci principles and adaptive logic. Instead of relying on static levels or single confirmations, AFPS seeks high-probability pullback entries within established trends by validating signals through a rigorous confluence of:
Harmonic Volatility Context: Understanding the trend's stability and potential turning points using the unique Multi-Fibonacci Supertrend.
Adaptive Market Structure: Assessing the prevailing trend regime via the AMA Channel.
Multi-Dimensional Confirmation: Filtering signals with lower-timeframe Momentum (RSI), Trend Alignment (MACD), and Market Conviction (Volume) using the MTF suite.
The objective is to achieve superior signal quality and adaptability, moving beyond conventional pullback methodologies.
2. Core Methodology: Synergistic Integration
AFPS's effectiveness stems from the engineered synergy between its core components:
2.1. Multi-Fibonacci Supertrend Engine: Utilizes specific Fibonacci ratios (0.618, 1.618, 2.618) applied to ATR, creating a multi-layered volatility envelope potentially resonant with market harmonics. The averaged and EMA-smoothed result (`smoothed_supertrend`) provides a robust, dynamic trend baseline and context filter.
// Key Components: Multi-Fibonacci Supertrend & Smoothing
average_supertrend = (supertrend1 + supertrend2 + supertrend3) / 3
smoothed_supertrend = ta.ema(average_supertrend, st_smooth_length)
2.2. Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) Channel: Provides dynamic market context. The `ama_midline` serves as a key filter in the entry logic, confirming the broader trend bias relative to adaptive price action. Extended Fibonacci levels derived from the channel width offer potential dynamic S/R zones.
// Key Component: AMA Midline
ama_midline = (ama_high_band + ama_low_band) / 2
2.3. Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Filter Suite: An optional but powerful validation layer (RSI, MACD, Volume) assessed on a lower timeframe. Acts as a **validation cascade** – signals must pass all enabled filters simultaneously.
2.4. High-Confluence Entry Logic: The core innovation. A pullback entry requires a specific sequence and validation:
Price interaction with `average_supertrend` and recovery above/below `smoothed_supertrend`.
Price confirmation relative to the `ama_midline`.
Simultaneous validation by all enabled MTF filters.
// Simplified Long Entry Logic Example (incorporates key elements)
long_entry_condition = enable_long_positions and
(low < average_supertrend and close > smoothed_supertrend) and // Pullback & Recovery
(close > ama_midline and close > ama_midline) and // AMA Confirmation
(rsi_filter_long_ok and macd_filter_long_ok and volume_filter_ok) // MTF Validation
This strict, multi-stage confluence significantly elevates signal quality compared to simpler pullback approaches.
1hourly filtering
3. Realistic Implementation and Performance Potential
AFPS is designed for practical application, incorporating realistic defaults and highlighting performance potential with crucial context:
3.1. Realistic Default Strategy Settings:
The script includes responsible default parameters:
strategy('Adaptive Fibonacci Pullback System - FibonacciFlux', shorttitle = "AFPS", ...,
initial_capital = 10000, // Accessible capital
default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, // Equity-based risk
default_qty_value = 4, // Default 4% equity risk per initial trade
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent,
commission_value = 0.03, // Realistic commission
slippage = 2, // Realistic slippage
pyramiding = 2 // Limited pyramiding allowed
)
Note: The default 4% risk (`default_qty_value = 4`) requires careful user assessment and adjustment based on individual risk tolerance.
3.2. Historical Performance Insights & Institutional Potential:
Backtesting provides insights into historical behavior under specific conditions (always specify Asset/Timeframe/Dates when sharing results):
Default Performance Example: With defaults, historical tests might show characteristics like Overall PF ~1.38, Max DD ~1.16%, with potential Long/Short performance variance (e.g., Long PF 1.6+, Short PF < 1).
Optimized MTF Filter Performance: Crucially, historical simulations demonstrate that meticulous configuration of the MTF filters (particularly RSI and potentially others depending on market) can significantly enhance performance. Under specific, optimized MTF filter settings combined with appropriate risk management (e.g., 7.5% risk), historical tests have indicated the potential to achieve **Profit Factors exceeding 2.6**, alongside controlled drawdowns (e.g., ~1.32%). This level of performance, if consistently achievable (which requires ongoing adaptation), aligns with metrics often sought in institutional trading environments.
Disclaimer Reminder: These results are strictly historical simulations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Achieving high performance requires careful parameter tuning, adaptation to changing markets, and robust risk management.
3.3. Emphasizing Risk Management:
Effective use of AFPS mandates active risk management. Utilize the built-in Stop Loss, Take Profit, and Trailing Stop features. The `pyramiding = 2` setting requires particularly diligent oversight. Do not rely solely on default settings.
4. Conclusion: Advancing Trend Pullback Strategies
The Adaptive Fibonacci Pullback System (AFPS) offers a sophisticated, theoretically grounded, and highly adaptable framework for identifying and executing high-probability trend pullback trades. Its unique blend of Fibonacci resonance, adaptive context, and multi-dimensional MTF filtering represents a significant advancement over conventional methods. While requiring thoughtful implementation and risk management, AFPS provides discerning traders with a powerful tool potentially capable of achieving institutional-level performance characteristics under optimized conditions.
Acknowledgments
Developed by FibonacciFlux. Inspired by principles of Fibonacci analysis, adaptive averaging, and multi-timeframe confirmation techniques explored within the trading community.
Disclaimer
Trading involves substantial risk. AFPS is an analytical tool, not a guarantee of profit. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions change. Users are solely responsible for their decisions and risk management. Thorough testing is essential. Deploy at your own considered risk.
Cerca negli script per "entry"
XTE+ Optimized Trend Tracker📊 XTE+ Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT)
XTE+ OTT is a powerful, trend-following indicator designed for traders who value clarity, precision, and advanced analytics. It offers not only accurate entry and exit signals but also visual zones, historical signal analysis, and real-time trend monitoring.
🧠 How It Works
XTE+ OTT is based on an improved version of the Optimized Trend Tracker. It utilizes multiple customizable moving average types (VAR, EMA, SMA, WMA, and more) combined with volatility filtering (ATR logic) to generate cleaner, more reliable trend-following signals.
✅ Features
Trend Direction Detection with automatic switch logic
Buy/Sell Signal Icons with distinct large markers
Entry/Exit Zones drawn visually on chart
Custom Take-Profit / Stop-Loss settings for Buy and Sell signals
Statistical Panel showing:
Current Trend (Up/Down)
Number of total signals
Number of winning trades
Win percentage
Configurable Display Options:
Show/hide signals
Show/hide trend zones
Show/hide OTT and MA lines
Supports multiple MA types including EMA, SMA, VAR, ZLEMA, TSF and more
Non-repainting logic — signals are confirmed at bar close
⚙️ Inputs and Customization
OTT Period & Sensitivity (%)
MA Type Selection (VAR, EMA, etc.)
Entry Zone Visualization On/Off
Trend Panel Display On/Off
TP/SL % per direction (Buy/Sell separately)
Option to disable MA or OTT line display
📈 Visuals
Signal icons: BUY (Green Up Label), SELL (Red Down Label)
Entry zones: circles near breakout levels
Trendlines change color dynamically (green for uptrend, red for downtrend)
Trend Panel is pinned in the top-right corner for quick reference
💡 Usage Tips
Best used on higher timeframes (15min, 1H, 4H+) for more meaningful trend signals
Combine with volume/volatility indicators or support/resistance zones for enhanced decision making
Use TP/SL logic to track signal success over time and optimize strategies
📌 Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always test and validate your strategy before applying it in live markets.
Range Filter Buy and Sell 5min## **Enhanced Range Filter Strategy: A Comprehensive Overview**
### **1. Introduction**
The **Enhanced Range Filter Strategy** is a powerful technical trading system designed to identify high-probability trading opportunities while filtering out market noise. It utilizes **range-based trend filtering**, **momentum confirmation**, and **volatility-based risk management** to generate precise entry and exit signals. This strategy is particularly useful for traders who aim to capitalize on trend-following setups while avoiding choppy, ranging market conditions.
---
### **2. Key Components of the Strategy**
#### **A. Range Filter (Trend Determination)**
- The **Range Filter** smooths price fluctuations and helps identify clear trends.
- It calculates an **adjusted price range** based on a **sampling period** and a **multiplier**, ensuring a dynamic trend-following approach.
- **Uptrends:** When the current price is above the range filter and the trend is strengthening.
- **Downtrends:** When the price falls below the range filter and momentum confirms the move.
#### **B. RSI (Relative Strength Index) as Momentum Confirmation**
- RSI is used to **filter out weak trades** and prevent entries during overbought/oversold conditions.
- **Buy Signals:** RSI is above a certain threshold (e.g., 50) in an uptrend.
- **Sell Signals:** RSI is below a certain threshold (e.g., 50) in a downtrend.
#### **C. ADX (Average Directional Index) for Trend Strength Confirmation**
- ADX ensures that trades are only taken when the trend has **sufficient strength**.
- Avoids trading in low-volatility, ranging markets.
- **Threshold (e.g., 25):** Only trade when ADX is above this value, indicating a strong trend.
#### **D. ATR (Average True Range) for Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss (SL):** Placed **one ATR below** (for long trades) or **one ATR above** (for short trades).
- **Take Profit (TP):** Set at a **3:1 reward-to-risk ratio**, using ATR to determine realistic price targets.
- Ensures volatility-adjusted risk management.
---
### **3. Entry and Exit Conditions**
#### **📈 Buy (Long) Entry Conditions:**
1. **Price is above the Range Filter** → Indicates an uptrend.
2. **Upward trend strength is positive** (confirmed via trend counter).
3. **RSI is above the buy threshold** (e.g., 50, to confirm momentum).
4. **ADX confirms trend strength** (e.g., above 25).
5. **Volatility is supportive** (using ATR analysis).
#### **📉 Sell (Short) Entry Conditions:**
1. **Price is below the Range Filter** → Indicates a downtrend.
2. **Downward trend strength is positive** (confirmed via trend counter).
3. **RSI is below the sell threshold** (e.g., 50, to confirm momentum).
4. **ADX confirms trend strength** (e.g., above 25).
5. **Volatility is supportive** (using ATR analysis).
#### **🚪 Exit Conditions:**
- **Stop Loss (SL):**
- **Long Trades:** 1 ATR below entry price.
- **Short Trades:** 1 ATR above entry price.
- **Take Profit (TP):**
- Set at **3x the risk distance** to achieve a favorable risk-reward ratio.
- **Ranging Market Exit:**
- If ADX falls below the threshold, indicating a weakening trend.
---
### **4. Visualization & Alerts**
- **Colored range filter line** changes based on trend direction.
- **Buy and Sell signals** appear as labels on the chart.
- **Stop Loss and Take Profit levels** are plotted as dashed lines.
- **Gray background highlights ranging markets** where trading is avoided.
- **Alerts trigger on Buy, Sell, and Ranging Market conditions** for automation.
---
### **5. Advantages of the Enhanced Range Filter Strategy**
✅ **Trend-Following with Noise Reduction** → Helps avoid false signals by filtering out weak trends.
✅ **Momentum Confirmation with RSI & ADX** → Ensures that only strong, valid trades are executed.
✅ **Volatility-Based Risk Management** → ATR ensures adaptive stop loss and take profit placements.
✅ **Works on Multiple Timeframes** → Effective for day trading, swing trading, and scalping.
✅ **Visually Intuitive** → Clearly displays trade signals, SL/TP levels, and trend conditions.
---
### **6. Who Should Use This Strategy?**
✔ **Trend Traders** who want to enter trades with momentum confirmation.
✔ **Swing Traders** looking for medium-term opportunities with a solid risk-reward ratio.
✔ **Scalpers** who need precise entries and exits to minimize false signals.
✔ **Algorithmic Traders** using alerts for automated execution.
---
### **7. Conclusion**
The **Enhanced Range Filter Strategy** is a powerful trading tool that combines **trend-following techniques, momentum indicators, and risk management** into a structured, rule-based system. By leveraging **Range Filters, RSI, ADX, and ATR**, traders can improve trade accuracy, manage risk effectively, and filter out unfavorable market conditions.
This strategy is **ideal for traders looking for a systematic, disciplined approach** to capturing trends while **avoiding market noise and false breakouts**. 🚀
Enhanced Range Filter Strategy with ATR TP/SLBuilt by Omotola
## **Enhanced Range Filter Strategy: A Comprehensive Overview**
### **1. Introduction**
The **Enhanced Range Filter Strategy** is a powerful technical trading system designed to identify high-probability trading opportunities while filtering out market noise. It utilizes **range-based trend filtering**, **momentum confirmation**, and **volatility-based risk management** to generate precise entry and exit signals. This strategy is particularly useful for traders who aim to capitalize on trend-following setups while avoiding choppy, ranging market conditions.
---
### **2. Key Components of the Strategy**
#### **A. Range Filter (Trend Determination)**
- The **Range Filter** smooths price fluctuations and helps identify clear trends.
- It calculates an **adjusted price range** based on a **sampling period** and a **multiplier**, ensuring a dynamic trend-following approach.
- **Uptrends:** When the current price is above the range filter and the trend is strengthening.
- **Downtrends:** When the price falls below the range filter and momentum confirms the move.
#### **B. RSI (Relative Strength Index) as Momentum Confirmation**
- RSI is used to **filter out weak trades** and prevent entries during overbought/oversold conditions.
- **Buy Signals:** RSI is above a certain threshold (e.g., 50) in an uptrend.
- **Sell Signals:** RSI is below a certain threshold (e.g., 50) in a downtrend.
#### **C. ADX (Average Directional Index) for Trend Strength Confirmation**
- ADX ensures that trades are only taken when the trend has **sufficient strength**.
- Avoids trading in low-volatility, ranging markets.
- **Threshold (e.g., 25):** Only trade when ADX is above this value, indicating a strong trend.
#### **D. ATR (Average True Range) for Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss (SL):** Placed **one ATR below** (for long trades) or **one ATR above** (for short trades).
- **Take Profit (TP):** Set at a **3:1 reward-to-risk ratio**, using ATR to determine realistic price targets.
- Ensures volatility-adjusted risk management.
---
### **3. Entry and Exit Conditions**
#### **📈 Buy (Long) Entry Conditions:**
1. **Price is above the Range Filter** → Indicates an uptrend.
2. **Upward trend strength is positive** (confirmed via trend counter).
3. **RSI is above the buy threshold** (e.g., 50, to confirm momentum).
4. **ADX confirms trend strength** (e.g., above 25).
5. **Volatility is supportive** (using ATR analysis).
#### **📉 Sell (Short) Entry Conditions:**
1. **Price is below the Range Filter** → Indicates a downtrend.
2. **Downward trend strength is positive** (confirmed via trend counter).
3. **RSI is below the sell threshold** (e.g., 50, to confirm momentum).
4. **ADX confirms trend strength** (e.g., above 25).
5. **Volatility is supportive** (using ATR analysis).
#### **🚪 Exit Conditions:**
- **Stop Loss (SL):**
- **Long Trades:** 1 ATR below entry price.
- **Short Trades:** 1 ATR above entry price.
- **Take Profit (TP):**
- Set at **3x the risk distance** to achieve a favorable risk-reward ratio.
- **Ranging Market Exit:**
- If ADX falls below the threshold, indicating a weakening trend.
---
### **4. Visualization & Alerts**
- **Colored range filter line** changes based on trend direction.
- **Buy and Sell signals** appear as labels on the chart.
- **Stop Loss and Take Profit levels** are plotted as dashed lines.
- **Gray background highlights ranging markets** where trading is avoided.
- **Alerts trigger on Buy, Sell, and Ranging Market conditions** for automation.
---
### **5. Advantages of the Enhanced Range Filter Strategy**
✅ **Trend-Following with Noise Reduction** → Helps avoid false signals by filtering out weak trends.
✅ **Momentum Confirmation with RSI & ADX** → Ensures that only strong, valid trades are executed.
✅ **Volatility-Based Risk Management** → ATR ensures adaptive stop loss and take profit placements.
✅ **Works on Multiple Timeframes** → Effective for day trading, swing trading, and scalping.
✅ **Visually Intuitive** → Clearly displays trade signals, SL/TP levels, and trend conditions.
---
### **6. Who Should Use This Strategy?**
✔ **Trend Traders** who want to enter trades with momentum confirmation.
✔ **Swing Traders** looking for medium-term opportunities with a solid risk-reward ratio.
✔ **Scalpers** who need precise entries and exits to minimize false signals.
✔ **Algorithmic Traders** using alerts for automated execution.
---
### **7. Conclusion**
The **Enhanced Range Filter Strategy** is a powerful trading tool that combines **trend-following techniques, momentum indicators, and risk management** into a structured, rule-based system. By leveraging **Range Filters, RSI, ADX, and ATR**, traders can improve trade accuracy, manage risk effectively, and filter out unfavorable market conditions.
This strategy is **ideal for traders looking for a systematic, disciplined approach** to capturing trends while **avoiding market noise and false breakouts**. 🚀
MACD Volume Strategy (BBO + MACD State, Reversal Type)Overview
MACD Volume Strategy (BBO + MACD State, Reversal Type) is a momentum-based reversal system that combines MACD crossover logic with volume filtering to enhance signal accuracy and minimize noise. It aims to identify structural trend shifts and manage risk using predefined parameters.
※This strategy is for educational and research purposes only. All results are based on historical simulations and do not guarantee future performance.
Strategy Objectives
Identify early trend transitions with high probability
Filter entries using volume dynamics to validate momentum
Maintain continuous exposure using a reversal-style model
Apply a consistent 1:1.5 risk-to-reward ratio per trade
Key Features
Integrated MACD and volume oscillator filtering
Zero repainting (all signals confirmed on closed candles)
Automatic position flipping for seamless direction shifts
Stop-loss and take-profit based on recent structural highs/lows
Trading Rules
Long Entry Conditions
MACD crosses above the zero line (BBO Buy arrow)
Volume oscillator is positive (short EMA > long EMA)
MACD is above the signal line
Close any existing short and enter a new long
Short Entry Conditions
MACD crosses below the zero line (BBO Sell arrow)
Volume oscillator is positive
MACD is below the signal line
Close any existing long and enter a new short
Exit Rules
Take Profit (TP) = Entry ± (risk distance × 1.5)
Stop Loss (SL) = Recent swing low (for long) or high (for short)
Early Exit = Triggered when a reversal signal appears (flip logic)
Risk Management Parameters
Pair: ETH/USD
Timeframe: 10-minute
Starting Capital: $3,000
Commission: 0.02%
Slippage: 2 pip
Risk per Trade: 5% of account equity (adjusted for sustainable practice)
Total Trades: 312 (backtest on selected dataset)
※Risk parameters are fully configurable and should be adjusted to suit each trader's personal setup and broker conditions.
Parameters & Configurations
Volume Short Length: 6
Volume Long Length: 12
MACD Fast Length: 11
MACD Slow Length: 21
Signal Smoothing: 10
Oscillator MA Type: SMA
Signal Line MA Type: SMA
Visual Support
Green arrow = Long entry
Red arrow = Short entry
MACD lines, signal line, and histogram
SL/TP markers plotted directly on the chart
Strategic Advantages & Uniqueness
Volume filtering eliminates low-participation, weak signals
Structurally aligned SL/TP based on recent market pivots
No repainting — decisions are made only on closed candles
Always in the market due to the reversal-style framework
Inspirations & Attribution
This strategy is inspired by the excellent work of:
Bitcoinblockchainonline – “BBO_Roxana_Signals MACD + vol”
Leveraging MACD zero-line cross and volume oscillator for intuitive signal generation.
HasanRifat – “MACD Fake Filter ”
Introduced a signal filter using MACD wave height averaging to reduce false positives.
This strategy builds upon those ideas to create a more automated, risk-aware, and technically adaptive system.
Summary
MACD Volume Strategy is a clean, logic-first automated trading system built for precision-seeking traders. It avoids discretionary bias and provides consistent signal logic under backtested historical conditions.
100% mechanical — no discretionary input required
Designed for high-confidence entries
Can be extended with filters, alerts, or trailing stops
※Strategy performance depends on market context. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use with proper risk management and careful configuration.
Ryna 3 EMA Multi-Timeframe Indicator**EMA Multi-Timeframe Strategy (Pine Script v6)**
This TradingView indicator is designed to assist traders using a **multi-timeframe trend-following strategy** based on Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
**Core Functionality**
- **Trend Identification:**
Uses a configurable **EMA (e.g., EMA 50)** on a **higher timeframe** (e.g., H1, D1, W1) to determine the market bias:
- If price is **above** the trend EMA → **Long bias**
- If price is **below** the trend EMA → **Short bias**
- **Entry Signals:**
Uses two EMAs (fast & slow, e.g., EMA 8 & EMA 21) on either:
- The **current chart timeframe**, or
- A **separately selected timeframe** (e.g., entry on M15, trend on H1)
→ Signals are generated based on **EMA crossovers**:
- **Bullish crossover** (fast crosses above slow) → Long signal
- **Bearish crossover** (fast crosses below slow) → Short signal
- Only when aligned with the higher-timeframe trend
- **Visual Output:**
- Optional display of entry EMAs when sourced from the trend timeframe
- Always displays the trend EMA
- Entry signals shown with triangle markers on the chart
- **Info Panel (Top Center):**
- Shows selected timeframes and EMA settings
- Indicates current trend bias (LONG / SHORT / NEUTRAL)
- Notes if entry EMAs are hidden due to settings
- **Alerts:**
- Optional alerts for long and short entry signals based on EMA crossovers
#### **User Inputs**
- **Trend Timeframe & EMA Length**
- **Entry Timeframe & EMA Fast/Slow Lengths**
- **Option to show/hide entry EMAs when using the trend timeframe**
- **Option to show/hide Infobox on Chart**
AsianRange&Midnight 2.2### Midnight Setup: Trading Strategy
#### **Bias Definition (Trend Identification)**
- The Daily (D) bias is defined the previous day and validated on the line chart.
- On the Daily chart, identify the nearest V-shaped formation that has broken close to the current price. This formation determines the Daily bias direction.
#### **H4 Bias Analysis (Trend Confirmation)**
- Switch to an H4 chart to refine the analysis.
- Identify a similar V-shaped formation that has broken in the H4 timeframe.
- If the Daily and H4 biases are aligned, the setup is valid.
#### **Entry Strategy (Position Entries)**
- **Bearish Bias (D and H4 identical):**
- Short entry at the high level of the Midnight range.
- **Bullish Bias (D and H4 identical):**
- Long entry at the low level of the Midnight range.
#### **Bias Divergence (Context Adaptation)**
- If the H4 bias is opposite to the Daily bias, this indicates an H4 retracement of the Daily bias.
- Enter a counter-trend trade with reduced risk.
- No TP target beyond 50% of the extension validating the Daily break. It is also not recommended to enter against this divergence beyond 50%.
#### **Divergence Scenarios (Reactions to Divergences)**
- **Daily Bearish Bias, H4 Bullish Bias:**
- Long entry at the Midnight Low.
- **Daily Bullish Bias, H4 Bearish Bias:**
- Short entry at the Midnight High.
#### **Daily Bias Resumption (Trend Alignment)**
- As soon as the H4 bias resumes the Daily bias direction, follow this trend and adjust the position accordingly.
#### **Instructions for Divergent Bias (Managing Divergence)**
- When holding a position with a divergent bias, it is crucial to manage it carefully.
- Exit counter-trend trades as soon as the H4 bias realigns with the Daily bias.
- Limit the duration of counter-trend trades per session and adjust the H4 bias for the next session if needed.
#### **SL/TP Management (Profit Taking and Protection Optimization)**
- **Take Profit (TP):**
- Entry in M15 with a minimum RR of 3.
- TP at 5H NYE, or RR 5, or 15H NYE.
- **Stop Loss (SL):**
- Minimum 15 pips, placed just above the nearest swing to the entry point to protect capital.
- **Red Announcement Days:**
- Either abstain from trading or set a 40-pip SL to limit volatility impact.
- **At 6H/7H NYE:**
- Manage the trade based on its progress: exit, set to BE (Break Even), or keep the SL in place.
- Any SL adjustment outside these rules can only be made if supported by data or backtests.
#### **Risk Management (Capital Protection)**
- Maximum risk of **1% of capital per trade** (allowing for **10 consecutive losses** without significantly affecting capital).
- In case of a loss, **reduce risk by 50% on the next trade** until the loss is recovered.
#### **Efficiency Conditions (When This Setup Works Best)**
- This setup is particularly effective in **strong trends**, where the market has a clear direction.
- It is **less effective in ranging markets**, where prices move within a narrow range without a clear trend.
Setup Midnight : Stratégie de Trading
Volatility Layered Supertrend [NLR]We’ve all used Supertrend, but do you know where to actually enter a trade? Volatility Layered Supertrend (VLS) is here to solve that! This advanced trend-following indicator builds on the classic Supertrend by not only identifying trends and their strength but also guiding you to the best trade entry points. VLS divides the main long-term trend into “Strong” and “Weak” Zones, with a clear “Trade Entry Zone” to help you time your trades with precision. With layered trends, dynamic profit targets, and volatility-adaptive bands, VLS delivers actionable signals for any market.
Why I Created VLS Over a Plain Supertrend
I built VLS to address the gaps in traditional Supertrend usage and make trade entries clearer:
Single-Line Supertrend Issues: The default Supertrend sets stop-loss levels that are too wide, making it impractical for most traders to use effectively.
Unclear Entry Points: Standard Supertrend doesn’t tell you where to enter a trade, often leaving you guessing or entering too early or late.
Multi-Line Supertrend Enhancement: Many traders use short, medium, and long Supertrends, which is helpful but can lack focus. In VLS, I include Short, Medium, and Long trends (using multipliers 1 to 3), and add multipliers 4 and 5 to track extra long-term trends—helping to avoid fakeouts that sometimes occur with multiplier 3.
My Solution: I focused on the main long-term Supertrend and split it into “Weak Zone” and “Strength Zone” to show the trend’s reliability. I also defined a “Trade Entry Zone” (starting from the Mid Point, with the first layer’s background hidden for clarity) to guide you on where to enter trades. The zones include Short, Medium, and Long Trend layers for precise entries, exits, and stop-losses.
Practical Trading: This approach provides realistic stop-loss levels, clear entry points, and a “Profit Target” line that aligns with your risk tolerance, while filtering out false signals with longer-term trends.
Key Features
Layered Trend Zones: Short, Medium, Long, and Extra Long Trend layers (up to multipliers 4 and 5) for timing entries and exits.
Strong & Weak Zones: See when the trend is reliable (Strength Zone) or needs caution (Weak Zone).
Trade Entry Zone: A dedicated zone starting from the Mid Point (first layer’s background hidden) to show the best entry points.
Dynamic Profit Targets: A “Profit Target” line that adjusts with the trend for clear goals.
Volatility-Adaptive: Uses ATR to adapt to market conditions, ensuring reliable signals.
Color-Coded: Green for uptrends, red for downtrends—simple and clear.
How It Works
VLS enhances the main long-term Supertrend by dividing it into two zones:
Weak Zone: Indicates a less reliable trend—use tighter stop-losses or wait for the price to reach the Trade Entry Zone.
Strength Zone: Signals a strong trend—ideal for entries with wider stop-losses for bigger moves.
The “Trade Entry Zone” starts at the Mid Point (last layer’s background hidden for clarity), showing you the best area to enter trades. Each zone includes Short, Medium, Long, and Extra Long Trend sublevels (up to multipliers 4 and 5) for precise trade timing and to filter out fakeouts. The “Profit Target” updates dynamically based on trend direction and volatility, giving you a clear goal.
How to Use
Spot the Trend: Green bands = buy, red bands = sell.
Check Strength: Price in Strength Zone? Trend’s reliable—trade confidently. In Weak Zone? Use tighter stops or wait.
Enter Trades: Use the “Trade Entry Zone” (from the Mid Point upward) for the best entry points.
Use Sublevels: Short, Medium, Long, and Extra Long layers in each zone help fine-tune entries and exits.
Set Targets: Follow the Profit Target line for goals—it updates automatically.
Combine Tools: Pair with RSI, MACD, or support/resistance for added confirmation.
Settings
ATR Length: Adjust the ATR period (default 10) to change sensitivity.
Up/Down Colors: Customize colors—green for up, red for down, by default.
Supply & Demand Zones
_____________________________________________________________________
Supply and Demand Zones
This indicator displays valid Supply and Demand zones on any chart and timeframe, using dynamically updating visuals. Users can see the moment that zones become validated, used, and then invalidated during live sessions. It is sleek, lightweight, and offers a feature-rich settings panel that allows customization of how each element appears and functions. Zones can enhance the probability of successful trades by locating areas that are most likely to contain resting orders of Supply or Demand, which are needed for price reversals.
Disclaimer
____________________
Like all indicators, this can be a valuable tool when incorporated into a comprehensive, risk-based trading system.
Supply and Demand is not the same thing as Support and Resistance.
Trading based on price hitting a zone without understanding which zones are of higher quality and which are of lower quality (only discernible with a trained human eye) will yield poor results.
Supply and Demand works well as a system and even better when added to an existing one. However, like all effective trading techniques, it requires diligent study, practice, and repetition to become proficient. This is an indicator for use with Supply and Demand concepts, not a replacement for learning them.
Features
____________________
Once a valid candle sequence is confirmed, a box will appear that displays the zone over the precise zone range. At 50% zone penetration, a zone becomes used , and at 100% it becomes invalidated . Each of these zone classifications changes the behavior of the zone on the chart immediately. The settings panel offers custom colors for Supply , Demand , Used , and Invalidated zone types.
Borders : The subtle border colors can be changed or hidden.
Boxes or Bases : Advanced users can opt to hide zone boxes and instead display small, subtle tags over base candle groups. This allows for more customizable selection over what is displayed and how.
Max Zones and Hide Invalidated :
There are limitations on how many objects TradingView allows at once. Because of this, once zones go from used to invalidated , they are hidden (deleted) by default. This allows the zones index to be allocated to display more valid , usable zones instead. If a user prefers to keep invalidated zones visible, they can be enabled; however, this will result in showing more recent zones for fewer historical zones.
All zones share one pool, so if you allow fifty max zones, forty-five might be supply while five might be demand on a big sell-off trend. You will always see the most recent zones, regardless of type or status.
It’s up to you how much clutter you want on your screen and how much improved load time you want - but once loaded, zone creation and function are always instantaneous.
Load Time
____________________
Load time refers to the time it takes from when you switch tickers or timeframes before the zones are displayed initially. There is zero lag in the dynamic function and minimal load time, regardless of settings. However, if you are a fine-tuner or multi-screener, the number of Max Zones displayed is the only major variable affecting load time.
I run everything at Max when I develop. When I trade, I run mine at 25 max zones because I change timeframes often and want a very quick display of zones when I do. I have invalidated hidden, and simply enable it if I want to check an old zone. This gives me more zones than I need and reduces the load time to right where I like it.
Thresholds
____________________
It is recommended to leave these as the default.
Base Body Threshold : Determines the maximum ratio of a candle’s body to wick before invalidation. Default (50% or 0.5). A higher number loosens thresholds, resulting in more zones being displayed.
Unrequire 2nd FT if LO is Strong & Strength Multiplier :
The standard logic sequence requires two Follow-Through candles. Under some strong price movement, Leg-Out candles can make an explosive directional move from a base, making a convincing argument for supply and demand perfectly at work, if not for a single Follow-Through candle instead of two.
By enabling this feature, you can tell the script to ignore second Follow-Through candles, if and only if, the Leg-Out candle's range is (Strength) X the base range. exceeds the range of the Base by a factor of X (Strength). ie: At 5x, this would require a Leg-Out range to be 500% the range of the Base.
If enabled and the Leg-Out is not strong enough, the default logic kicks in, and a second follow-through candle will validate the zone as per usual. This loosens thresholds overall and should result in more zones.
Recommended Usage
____________________
Form a thesis using your primary trend trading system (eg: Elliott Wave, Structure Reversal, TheStrat, et al) to identify locations of a pullback for a long or short entry.
Identify a pullback area using your system, then use this indicator to find a high-quality zone on your chosen timeframe.
Once located, draw your own channel over the indicator's zone box. Start on 1m, check for zones, 2m, 3m, and so on. When you see a zone you like, recreate it; thus, when finished, you can see every timeframe’s highest-quality zones that you created, regardless of what timeframe you switch to. Tip: Be selective
To make the process faster, save a channel design in settings for “Demand” and one for “Supply”, then you can quickly get through this process in less than a minute with practice.
Optional: Use additional methods (eg: Fibonacci retracements, Elliott Wave Theory, Anchored VWAPs) to find congruent confirmation.
Version 1.0
____________________
No known bugs remain from the closed beta.
In Development
____________________
Powerful combination zones occur when standard zone sequences are extended with additional levels of demand or supply by adding more conditionals to the state machine logic. Got this mostly working in a dev version and it adds minimal extra resources. Set aside to polish a clean standard 1.0 for release first, but now displaying these extended zones is my top priority for next version.
MTF support is essentially working in a dev copy, but adds resources. Not sure if it is in the spirit of price action being the primary focus of a chart for serious traders, rather than indicators. If there is demand for it, I'll consider it.
Additional Threshold Settings
Thanks!
____________________
Thank you for your interest in my work. This was a personal passion project of mine, and I was delighted it turned out better than I hoped, so I decided to share it. If you have any comments, bugs, or suggestions, please leave them here, or you can find me on Twitter or Discord.
@ ContrarianIRL
Open-source developer for over 25 years
RSI3M3+ v.1.8RSI3M3+ v.1.8 Indicator
This script is an advanced trading indicator based on Walter J. Bressert's cycle analysis methodology, combined with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) variation. Let me break it down and explain how it works.
Core Concepts
The RSI3M3+ indicator combines:
A short-term RSI (3-period)
A 3-period moving average to smooth the RSI
Bressert's cycle analysis principles to identify optimal trading points
RSI3M3+ Indicator VisualizationImage Walter J. Bressert's Cycle Analysis Concepts
Walter Bressert was a pioneer in cycle analysis trading who believed markets move in cyclical patterns that can be measured and predicted. His key principles integrated into this indicator include:
Trading Cycles: Markets move in cycles with measurable time spans from low to low
Timing Bands: Projected periods when the next cyclical low or high is anticipated
Oscillator Use: Using oscillators like RSI to confirm cycle position
Entry/Exit Rules: Specific rules for trade entry and exit based on cycle position
Key Parameters in the Script
Basic RSI Parameters
Required bars: Minimum number of bars needed (default: 20)
Overbought region: RSI level considered overbought (default: 70)
Oversold region: RSI level considered oversold (default: 30)
Bressert-Specific Parameters
Cycle Detection Length: Lookback period for cycle identification (default: 30)
Minimum/Maximum Cycle Length: Expected cycle duration in days (default: 15-30)
Buy Line: Lower threshold for buy signals (default: 40)
Sell Line: Upper threshold for sell signals (default: 60)
How the Indicator Works
RSI3M3 Calculation:
Calculates a 3-period RSI (sRSI)
Smooths it with a 3-period moving average (sMA)
Cycle Detection:
Identifies bottoms: When the RSI is below the buy line (40) and starting to turn up
Identifies tops: When the RSI is above the sell line (60) and starting to turn down
Records these points to calculate cycle lengths
Timing Bands:
Projects when the next cycle bottom or top should occur
Creates visual bands on the chart showing these expected time windows
Signal Generation:
Buy signals occur when the RSI turns up from below the oversold level (30)
Sell signals occur when the RSI turns down from above the overbought level (70)
Enhanced by Bressert's specific timing rules
Bressert's Five Trading Rules (Implemented in the Script)
Cycle Timing: The low must be 15-30 market days from the previous Trading Cycle bottom
Prior Top Validation: A Trading Cycle high must have occurred with the oscillator above 60
Oscillator Behavior: The oscillator must drop below 40 and turn up
Entry Trigger: Entry is triggered by a rise above the price high of the upturn day
Protective Stop: Place stop slightly below the Trading Cycle low (implemented as 99% of bottom price)
How to Use the Indicator
Reading the Chart
Main Plot Area:
Green line: 3-period RSI
Red line: 3-period moving average of the RSI
Horizontal bands: Oversold (30) and Overbought (70) regions
Dotted lines: Buy line (40) and Sell line (60)
Yellow vertical bands: Projected timing windows for next cycle bottom
Signals:
Green up arrows: Buy signals
Red down arrows: Sell signals
Trading Strategy
For Buy Signals:
Wait for the RSI to drop below the buy line (40)
Look for an upturn in the RSI from below this level
Enter the trade when price rises above the high of the upturn day
Place a protective stop at 99% of the Trading Cycle low
For Sell Signals:
Wait for the RSI to rise above the sell line (60)
Look for a downturn in the RSI from above this level
Consider exiting or taking profits when a sell signal appears
Alternative exit: When price moves below the low of the downturn day
Cycle Timing Enhancement:
Pay attention to the yellow timing bands
Signals occurring within these bands have higher probability of success
Signals outside these bands may be less reliable
Practical Tips for Using RSI3M3+
Timeframe Selection:
The indicator works best on daily charts for intermediate-term trading
Can be used on weekly charts for longer-term position trading
On intraday charts, adjust cycle lengths accordingly
Market Applicability:
Works well in trending markets with clear cyclical behavior
Less effective in choppy, non-trending markets
Consider additional indicators for trend confirmation
Parameter Adjustment:
Different markets may have different natural cycle lengths
You may need to adjust the min/max cycle length parameters
Higher volatility markets may need wider overbought/oversold levels
Trade Management:
Enter trades when all Bressert's conditions are met
Use the protective stop as defined (99% of cycle low)
Consider taking partial profits at the projected cycle high timing
Advanced Techniques
Multiple Timeframe Analysis:
Confirm signals with the same indicator on higher timeframes
Enter in the direction of the larger cycle when smaller and larger cycles align
Divergence Detection:
Look for price making new lows while RSI makes higher lows (bullish)
Look for price making new highs while RSI makes lower highs (bearish)
Confluence with Price Action:
Combine with support/resistance levels
Use with candlestick patterns for confirmation
Consider volume confirmation of cycle turns
This RSI3M3+ indicator combines the responsiveness of a short-term RSI with the predictive power of Bressert's cycle analysis, offering traders a sophisticated tool for identifying high-probability trading opportunities based on market cycles and momentum shifts.
THANK YOU FOR PREVIOUS CODER THAT EFFORT TO CREATE THE EARLIER VERSION THAT MAKE WALTER J BRESSERT CONCEPT IN TRADINGVIEW @ADutchTourist
Abhi's Bollinger Band Reversal SignalThis Pine Script indicator is designed to detect reversal trade opportunities using Bollinger Band breakouts. It identifies both buy and sell setups with clearly defined entry, stop-loss (SL), and target (TP) conditions. It also manages trades visually with real-time signal plotting, and limits entries per trading day.
⚙️ How It Works
🔽 Sell Signal Conditions
- The previous candle must close above the upper Bollinger Band, and its entire body must be above the band
- The current candle must fail to break the previous high, and must break below the previous low
- Entry is taken at the previous candle’s low, with SL at its high
- Target is calculated based on a configurable Risk:Reward ratio
🔼 Buy Signal Conditions
- The previous candle must close below the lower Bollinger Band, and its entire body must be below the band
- The current candle must fail to break the previous low, and must break above the previous high
- Entry is at the previous candle’s high, with SL at its low
- Target is calculated using the same Risk:Reward ratio
⏰ Time-Based Exit
- If a trade is still active by a user-defined exit time (e.g. 15:15), the trade is closed
- Labels are plotted to show whether this exit was a profit or loss
🧩 User Inputs
- Start Time for signals
- Exit Time for open trades
- Bollinger Band Settings: Period and Std Dev
- Max Entries Per Day
- Risk:Reward Ratio: Dropdown for 1:1, 1:1.5, ..., 1:3
🎨 Visual Features
✅ BUY and SELL signals are plotted when valid conditions are detected
🟢 TP and 🔴 SL labels show trade outcome
🕒 TIME EXIT labels appear at user-set exit time with green/red coloring based on profitability
📉 Bollinger Bands plotted for visual context
📌 Notes:
- Designed for intraday trading, resets entry counter daily
- Uses bar_index > tradeBarIndex to avoid SL/TP being triggered on the same candle as entry
- Tracks only one trade at a time (tradeActive) — ensures clear, non-overlapping logic
Granular MA Ribbon🎗️ The Granular MA Ribbon provides a structured view of price action on lower timeframes by incorporating both price-based and volume-weighted moving averages, offering a more nuanced view of market trends and momentum shifts. Furthermore, by using 15-minute intervals for its calculations, it ensures that intraday traders receive a smooth and responsive representation of higher timeframe trends.
⚠️ Note that this indicator is specifically optimized for the 15-minute and 1-hour charts; applying it to longer or shorter periods will distort its calculations and reduce its effectiveness. Adjust visibility settings accordingly.
🧰 Unlike traditional moving averages that may lag or fail to reflect real-time shifts in price dynamics, the Granular MA Ribbon includes a one-day exponential moving average (1D EMA), a one-day volume-weighted moving average (1D VWMA), and a one-week exponential moving average (1W EMA). Together, these elements allow traders to stay aligned with the broader market while making precise intraday trading decisions.
🤷🏻 Why Two Daily Moving Averages?
🔊 Instead of relying on a single moving average, this indicator uses both an EMA and a VWMA to provide a clearer picture of price movement. The EMA reacts quickly to price changes, making it a useful tool for identifying short-term momentum shifts. The VWMA, meanwhile, accounts for volume, ensuring that price movements supported by higher trading activity carry greater weight in the trend calculation.
💪🏻 When the EMA and VWMA diverge significantly, it signals strong momentum. If they begin to converge, it suggests that momentum is weakening or that price may be entering consolidation. The space between these two moving averages is filled with a ribbon, making it easier to see shifts in trend strength. A wide ribbon typically indicates strong momentum, while a narrowing ribbon suggests the trend may be losing steam.
🧮 Calculation Rationale
🔎 The 1D EMA and 1D VWMA are constructed using 15-minute blocks to maintain accuracy on lower timeframes. A full trading day consists of 96 fifteen-minute intervals. Instead of relying on daily candle data, which would reduce the granularity of the moving averages, this method allows the indicator to reflect intra-day trends more accurately. By breaking the day into smaller increments, the moving averages adapt more smoothly to changes in price and volume, making them more reliable for traders working on shorter timeframes.
🔍 The weekly EMA follows the same logic, adjusting based on the selected five-day or seven-day setting. If the market follows a standard five-day trading week, the one-week EMA is calculated using 480 fifteen-minute bars. If the market trades seven days a week, such as in crypto, the weekly EMA is adjusted accordingly to reflect 672 fifteen-minute bars. This setting ensures that traders using the indicator across different asset classes receive accurate trend information.
🫤 Sideways Markets
🔄 When the broader market is in a range-bound state, with no clear trend on the one-day or one-week chart, this indicator helps traders make sense of the short-term price structure. In these conditions, the ribbon will often appear flat, with the 1D EMA and 1D VWMA frequently crossing each other. This suggests that momentum is weak and that price action lacks a strong directional bias.
⚠️ A narrowing ribbon in a sideways market indicates reduced volatility and a potential breakout. If the EMA crosses above the VWMA during consolidation, it may signal a short-term upward move, especially if volume begins to increase. Conversely, if the EMA moves below the VWMA, it could indicate that selling pressure is increasing. However, in choppy conditions, crossovers alone are not enough to confirm a trade. Traders should wait for additional confirmation, such as a breakout from a defined range or a shift in volume.
♭ If the weekly EMA remains flat while the daily ribbon fluctuates, it confirms that the market lacks a strong trend. In such cases, traders may consider fading moves near the top and bottom of a range rather than expecting sustained breakouts.
💹 Trending Markets
🏗️ When the market is in a strong uptrend or downtrend, the ribbon takes on a more structured shape. A widening ribbon that slopes upward signals strong bullish momentum, with price consistently respecting the 1D EMA and VWMA as support. In a downtrend, the ribbon slopes downward, acting as dynamic resistance.
📈 In trending conditions, traders can use the ribbon to time pullback entries. In an uptrend, price often retraces to the VWMA before resuming its upward move. If price holds above both the EMA and VWMA, the trend remains strong. If price begins to close below the VWMA but remains above the EMA, it suggests weakening momentum but not necessarily a reversal. A clean break below both moving averages indicates a shift in trend structure.
📊 The one-week EMA serves as a higher timeframe guide. When price remains above the weekly EMA, it confirms that the broader trend is intact. If price pulls back to the weekly EMA and bounces, it can provide a high-confidence trade entry. Conversely, if price breaks below the weekly EMA and fails to reclaim it, it suggests that the trend may be reversing.
⏳ 5-Day and 7-Day Week Variants
🎚️ The setting for a five-day or seven-day trading week adjusts the calculation of the one-week EMA. This ensures that the indicator remains accurate across different asset classes.
5️⃣ A five-day trading week is appropriate for stocks, futures, and forex markets, where trading pauses on weekends. Using a seven-day week for these markets would create artificial distortions by including non-trading days. 7️⃣ In contrast, the seven-day week setting is ideal for crypto markets, which trade continuously. Without this adjustment, the weekly EMA would fail to reflect weekend price action, leading to misleading trend signals.
🧐 This indicator is expressly designed to complement its higher timeframe counterpart, the Triple Differential Moving Average Braid, optimized for the 1-Day chart.
ChartPatternSetupsLibrary "ChartPatternSetups"
detectSymmetricalTriangle(lookback)
Detects a Symmetrical Triangle (Bullish or Bearish) and provides trade levels.
Parameters:
lookback (int) : Number of bars to look back for pivots.
Returns: Tuple of (isBullish, isBearish, entry, sl, tp).
detectAscendingTriangle(lookback)
Detects an Ascending Triangle (Bullish) and provides trade levels.
Parameters:
lookback (int) : Number of bars to look back for pivots.
Returns: Tuple of (isDetected, entry, sl, tp).
detectDescendingTriangle(lookback)
Detects a Descending Triangle (Bearish) and provides trade levels.
Parameters:
lookback (int) : Number of bars to look back for pivots.
Returns: Tuple of (isDetected, entry, sl, tp).
detectFallingWedge(lookback)
Detects a Falling Wedge (Bullish) and provides trade levels.
Parameters:
lookback (int) : Number of bars to look back for pivots.
Returns: Tuple of (isDetected, entry, sl, tp).
detectRisingWedge(lookback)
Detects a Rising Wedge (Bearish) and provides trade levels.
Parameters:
lookback (int) : Number of bars to look back for pivots.
Returns: Tuple of (isDetected, entry, sl, tp).
StatPivot- Dynamic Range Analyzer - indicator [PresentTrading]Hello everyone! In the following few open scripts, I would like to share various statistical tools that benefit trading. For this time, it is a powerful indicator called StatPivot- Dynamic Range Analyzer that brings a whole new dimension to your technical analysis toolkit.
This tool goes beyond traditional pivot point analysis by providing comprehensive statistical insights about price movements, helping you identify high-probability trading opportunities based on historical data patterns rather than subjective interpretations. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, StatPivot's real-time percentile rankings give you a statistical edge in understanding exactly where current price action stands within historical contexts.
Welcome to share your opinions! Looking forward to sharing the next tool soon!
█ Introduction and How it is Different
StatPivot is an advanced technical analysis tool that revolutionizes retracement analysis. Unlike traditional pivot indicators that only show static support/resistance levels, StatPivot delivers dynamic statistical insights based on historical pivot patterns.
Its key innovation is real-time percentile calculation - while conventional tools require new pivot formations before updating (often too late for trading decisions), StatPivot continuously analyzes where current price stands within historical retracement distributions.
Furthermore, StatPivot provides comprehensive statistical metrics including mean, median, standard deviation, and percentile distributions of price movements, giving traders a probabilistic edge by revealing which price levels represent statistically significant zones for potential reversals or continuations. By transforming raw price data into statistical insights, StatPivot helps traders move beyond subjective price analysis to evidence-based decision making.
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Pivot Point Detection and Analysis
The core of StatPivot's functionality begins with identifying significant pivot points in the price structure. Using the parameters left and right, the indicator locates pivot highs and lows by examining a specified number of bars to the left and right of each potential pivot point:
Copyp_low = ta.pivotlow(low, left, right)
p_high = ta.pivothigh(high, left, right)
For a point to qualify as a pivot low, it must have left higher lows to its left and right higher lows to its right. Similarly, a pivot high must have left lower highs to its left and right lower highs to its right. This approach ensures that only significant turning points are recognized.
🔶 Percentage Change Calculation
Once pivot points are identified, StatPivot calculates the percentage changes between consecutive pivot points:
For drops (when a pivot low is lower than the previous pivot low):
CopydropPercent = (previous_pivot_low - current_pivot_low) / previous_pivot_low * 100
For rises (when a pivot high is higher than the previous pivot high):
CopyrisePercent = (current_pivot_high - previous_pivot_high) / previous_pivot_high * 100
These calculations quantify the magnitude of each market swing, allowing for statistical analysis of historical price movements.
🔶 Statistical Distribution Analysis
StatPivot computes comprehensive statistics on the historical distribution of drops and rises:
Average (Mean): The arithmetic mean of all recorded percentage changes
CopyavgDrop = array.avg(dropValues)
Median: The middle value when all percentage changes are arranged in order
CopymedianDrop = array.median(dropValues)
Standard Deviation: Measures the dispersion of percentage changes from the average
CopystdDevDrop = array.stdev(dropValues)
Percentiles (25th, 75th): Values below which 25% and 75% of observations fall
Copyq1 = array.get(sorted, math.floor(cnt * 0.25))
q3 = array.get(sorted, math.floor(cnt * 0.75))
VaR95: The maximum expected percentage drop with 95% confidence
Copyvar95D = array.get(sortedD, math.floor(nD * 0.95))
Coefficient of Variation (CV): Measures relative variability
CopycvD = stdDevDrop / avgDrop
These statistics provide a comprehensive view of market behavior, enabling traders to understand the typical ranges and extreme moves.
🔶 Real-time Percentile Ranking
StatPivot's most innovative feature is its real-time percentile calculation. For each current price, it calculates:
The percentage drop from the latest pivot high:
CopycurrentDropPct = (latestPivotHigh - close) / latestPivotHigh * 100
The percentage rise from the latest pivot low:
CopycurrentRisePct = (close - latestPivotLow) / latestPivotLow * 100
The percentile ranks of these values within the historical distribution:
CopyrealtimeDropRank = (count of historical drops <= currentDropPct) / total drops * 100
This calculation reveals exactly where the current price movement stands in relation to all historical movements, providing crucial context for decision-making.
🔶 Cluster Analysis
To identify the most common retracement zones, StatPivot performs a cluster analysis by dividing the range of historical drops into five equal intervals:
CopyrangeSize = maxVal - minVal
For each interval boundary:
Copyboundaries = minVal + rangeSize * i / 5
By counting the number of observations in each interval, the indicator identifies the most frequently occurring retracement zones, which often serve as significant support or resistance areas.
🔶 Expected Price Targets
Using the statistical data, StatPivot calculates expected price targets:
CopytargetBuyPrice = close * (1 - avgDrop / 100)
targetSellPrice = close * (1 + avgRise / 100)
These targets represent statistically probable price levels for potential entries and exits based on the average historical behavior of the market.
█ Trade Direction
StatPivot functions as an analytical tool rather than a direct trading signal generator, providing statistical insights that can be applied to various trading strategies. However, the data it generates can be interpreted for different trade directions:
For Long Trades:
Entry considerations: Look for price drops that reach the 70-80th percentile range in the historical distribution, suggesting a statistically significant retracement
Target setting: Use the Expected Sell price or consider the average rise percentage as a reasonable target
Risk management: Set stop losses below recent pivot lows or at a distance related to the statistical volatility (standard deviation)
For Short Trades:
Entry considerations: Look for price rises that reach the 70-80th percentile range, indicating an unusual extension
Target setting: Use the Expected Buy price or average drop percentage as a target
Risk management: Set stop losses above recent pivot highs or based on statistical measures of volatility
For Range Trading:
Use the most common drop and rise clusters to identify probable reversal zones
Trade bounces between these statistically significant levels
For Trend Following:
Confirm trend strength by analyzing consecutive higher pivot lows (uptrend) or lower pivot highs (downtrend)
Use lower percentile retracements (20-30th percentile) as entry opportunities in established trends
█ Usage
StatPivot offers multiple ways to integrate its statistical insights into your trading workflow:
Statistical Table Analysis: Review the comprehensive statistics displayed in the data table to understand the market's behavior. Pay particular attention to:
Average drop and rise percentages to set reasonable expectations
Standard deviation to gauge volatility
VaR95 for risk assessment
Real-time Percentile Monitoring: Watch the real-time percentile display to see where the current price movement stands within the historical distribution. This can help identify:
Extreme movements (90th+ percentile) that might indicate reversal opportunities
Typical retracements (40-60th percentile) that might continue further
Shallow pullbacks (10-30th percentile) that might represent continuation opportunities in trends
Support and Resistance Identification: Utilize the plotted pivot points as key support and resistance levels, especially when they align with statistically significant percentile ranges.
Target Price Setting: Use the expected buy and sell prices calculated from historical averages as initial targets for your trades.
Risk Management: Apply the statistical measurements like standard deviation and VaR95 to set appropriate stop loss levels that account for the market's historical volatility.
Pattern Recognition: Over time, learn to recognize when certain percentile levels consistently lead to reversals or continuations in your specific market, and develop personalized strategies based on these observations.
█ Default Settings
The default settings of StatPivot have been carefully calibrated to provide reliable statistical analysis across a variety of markets and timeframes, but understanding their effects allows for optimal customization:
Left Bars (30) and Right Bars (30): These parameters determine how pivot points are identified. With both set to 30 by default:
A pivot low must be the lowest point among 30 bars to its left and 30 bars to its right
A pivot high must be the highest point among 30 bars to its left and 30 bars to its right
Effect on performance: Larger values create fewer but more significant pivot points, reducing noise but potentially missing important market structures. Smaller values generate more pivot points, capturing more nuanced movements but potentially including noise.
Table Position (Top Right): Determines where the statistical data table appears on the chart.
Effect on performance: No impact on analytical performance, purely a visual preference.
Show Distribution Histogram (False): Controls whether the distribution histogram of drop percentages is displayed.
Effect on performance: Enabling this provides visual insight into the distribution of retracements but can clutter the chart.
Show Real-time Percentile (True): Toggles the display of real-time percentile rankings.
Effect on performance: A critical setting that enables the dynamic analysis of current price movements. Disabling this removes one of the key advantages of the indicator.
Real-time Percentile Display Mode (Label): Chooses between label display or indicator line for percentile rankings.
Effect on performance: Labels provide precise information at the current price point, while indicator lines show the evolution of percentile rankings over time.
Advanced Considerations for Settings Optimization:
Timeframe Adjustment: Higher timeframes generally benefit from larger Left/Right values to identify truly significant pivots, while lower timeframes may require smaller values to capture shorter-term swings.
Volatility-Based Tuning: In highly volatile markets, consider increasing the Left/Right values to filter out noise. In less volatile conditions, lower values can help identify more potential entry and exit points.
Market-Specific Optimization: Different markets (forex, stocks, commodities) display different retracement patterns. Monitor the statistics table to see if your market typically shows larger or smaller retracements than the current settings are optimized for.
Trading Style Alignment: Adjust the settings to match your trading timeframe. Day traders might prefer settings that identify shorter-term pivots (smaller Left/Right values), while swing traders benefit from more significant pivots (larger Left/Right values).
By understanding how these settings affect the analysis and customizing them to your specific market and trading style, you can maximize the effectiveness of StatPivot as a powerful statistical tool for identifying high-probability trading opportunities.
Breakout Support & Resistance SwiftEdgeBreakout Support & Resistance
The Breakout is a technical analysis tool designed to identify breakout opportunities in the market by detecting price movements through support and resistance levels. It plots potential entry points, stop-loss (SL), and take-profit (TP) levels based on user-defined percentages, helping traders visualize breakout setups on their charts.
How It Works
Support and Resistance Detection: The indicator uses pivot points to identify support and resistance levels over a user-defined lookback period.
Breakout Identification: A breakout is confirmed when the price crosses above a resistance level (bullish) or below a support level (bearish) and remains there for a specified number of bars.
Entry, SL, and TP Levels: Upon a confirmed breakout, the indicator sets an entry point at the closing price and calculates SL, TP1, and TP2 levels based on user-defined percentages.
Directional Filtering: To avoid conflicting signals, the indicator filters breakouts based on the current trade direction. A new entry in the opposite direction is only set if the price moves a user-defined percentage away from the previous entry or if the previous trade hits its SL, TP1, or TP2.
Visuals: The indicator plots support and resistance lines, breakout labels, and entry/SL/TP levels on the chart. Users can choose to display only the latest entry or up to 5 recent entries.
Features
Customizable Settings: Adjust the lookback period for pivot points, breakout confirmation bars, SL/TP percentages, and more.
Directional Change Control: A direction change is indicated when the price moves significantly in the opposite direction, helping to manage trend reversals.
Multiple Entry Display: Option to show up to 5 recent entries for tracking multiple breakouts.
Alerts: Receive alerts when a breakout is confirmed, including entry, SL, TP1, and TP2 levels.
Settings
Pivot Lookback Length: Number of bars to look back for identifying support and resistance levels (default: 5).
Breakout Confirmation Bars: Number of bars the price must stay above/below the level to confirm a breakout (default: 2).
Take Profit 1 (%): First take-profit level as a percentage above/below the entry (default: 2.0%).
Take Profit 2 (%): Second take-profit level as a percentage above/below the entry (default: 4.0%).
Stop Loss (%): Stop-loss level as a percentage below/above the entry (default: 1.0%).
Show Multiple Entries: Toggle to display up to 5 recent entries or only the latest (default: false).
Direction Change Threshold (%): Percentage the price must move away from the entry to allow a direction change (default: 2.0%).
How to Use
Add the Breakout Scanner to your chart.
Adjust the settings to match your trading style (e.g., tweak the pivot lookback or SL/TP percentages).
Watch for breakout labels ("Breakout") on the chart, indicating a confirmed breakout.
Use the plotted entry, SL, TP1, and TP2 levels to plan your trades.
Enable alerts to be notified of new breakouts in real-time.
Notes
This indicator is designed to assist with identifying breakout opportunities and does not guarantee specific results. Always combine it with other analysis and risk management techniques.
The direction change feature helps filter breakouts in the opposite direction, but significant price movements may still trigger a new entry in the opposite direction.
For best results, test the indicator on a demo account to understand its behavior in your preferred market and timeframe.
Crypto Strategy SUSDT 10 minThis strategy is designed to trade the **SUSDT** pair on a **10-minute time frame**, using a combination of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and percentage-based Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) levels.
### How the strategy works:
1. **EMA Calculation**:
- The strategy calculates a 24-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) based on the closing price.
- This EMA serves as the primary trend indicator.
2. **Entry Conditions**:
- **Long Position**: A long position is entered when the closing price is above the EMA and the opening price is below the EMA. This indicates a potential upward trend.
- **Short Position**: A short position is entered when the closing price is below the EMA and the opening price is above the EMA. This indicates a potential downward trend.
3. **Stop Loss and Take Profit**:
- Both Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) are calculated based on the entry price of the position.
- **For Long Positions**:
- Stop Loss is set as a percentage below the entry price.
- Take Profit is set as a percentage above the entry price.
- **For Short Positions**:
- Stop Loss is set as a percentage above the entry price.
- Take Profit is set as a percentage below the entry price.
- The percentage values for SL and TP can be adjusted in the strategy's settings (default: SL = 2%, TP = 4%).
4. **Exit Conditions**:
- The position is closed automatically when either the Stop Loss or Take Profit level is reached.
5. **Visualization**:
- The 24-period EMA is plotted on the chart as a blue line, helping visualize the trend direction.
### Key Features:
- **Pair and Time Frame**: The strategy is optimized for the SUSDT pair on a 10-minute time frame.
- **Customizable Parameters**: Users can adjust the Stop Loss and Take Profit percentages to suit their risk tolerance and trading style.
- **Trend-Following Approach**: The strategy uses the EMA to identify and follow the current market trend.
This strategy is simple yet effective for capturing trends while managing risk through predefined Stop Loss and Take Profit levels.
Minimalist Trading Plan ChecklistMinimalist Trading Plan Checklist
A clean, customizable indicator to monitor your trading plan.
Features:
Checklist: Monitor bias, narrative, context, entry.
Timeframes: Set or leave blank (❌).
Risk-Reward Ratio: Display in a neat box.
News Checkbox: Toggle for high-impact events.
Customizable: Adjust colors and layout.
Stay organized and focused on your strategy with this minimalist tool.
Short and sweet! Let me know if you need further tweaks. 😊
Quarterly Theory ICT 03 [TradingFinder] Precision Swing Points🔵 Introduction
Precision Swing Point (PSP) is a divergence pattern in the closing of candles between two correlated assets, which can indicate a potential trend reversal. This structure appears at market turning points and highlights discrepancies between the price behavior of two related assets.
PSP typically forms in key timeframes such as 5-minute, 15-minute, and 90-minute charts, and is often used in combination with Smart Money Concepts (SMT) to confirm trade entries.
PSP is categorized into Bearish PSP and Bullish PSP :
Bearish PSP : Occurs when an asset breaks its previous high, and its middle candle closes bullish, while the correlated asset closes bearish at the same level. This divergence signals weakness in the uptrend and a potential price reversal downward.
Bullish PSP : Occurs when an asset breaks its previous low, and its middle candle closes bearish, while the correlated asset closes bullish at the same level. This suggests weakness in the downtrend and a potential price increase.
🟣 Trading Strategies Using Precision Swing Point (PSP)
PSP can be integrated into various trading strategies to improve entry accuracy and filter out false signals. One common method is combining PSP with SMT (divergence between correlated assets), where traders identify divergence and enter a trade only after PSP confirms the move.
Additionally, PSP can act as a liquidity gap, meaning that price tends to react to the wick of the PSP candle, making it a favorable entry point with a tight stop-loss and high risk-to-reward ratio. Furthermore, PSP combined with Order Blocks and Fair Value Gaps in higher timeframes allows traders to identify stronger reversal zones.
In lower timeframes, such as 5-minute or 15-minute charts, PSP can serve as a confirmation for more precise entries in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. This is particularly useful in scalping and intraday trading, helping traders execute smarter entries while minimizing unnecessary stop-outs.
🔵 How to Use
PSP is a trading pattern based on divergence in candle closures between two correlated assets. This divergence signals a difference in trend strength and can be used to identify precise market turning points. PSP is divided into Bullish PSP and Bearish PSP, each applicable for long and short trades.
🟣 Bullish PSP
A Bullish PSP forms when, at a market turning point, the middle candle of one asset closes bearish while the correlated asset closes bullish. This discrepancy indicates weakness in the downtrend and a potential price reversal upward.
Traders can use this as a signal for long (buy) trades. The best approach is to wait for price to return to the wick of the PSP candle, as this area typically acts as a liquidity level.
f PSP forms within an Order Block or Fair Value Gap in a higher timeframe, its reliability increases, allowing for entries with tight stop-loss and optimal risk-to-reward ratios.
🟣 Bearish PSP
A Bearish PSP forms when, at a market turning point, the middle candle of one asset closes bullish while the correlated asset closes bearish. This indicates weakness in the uptrend and a potential price decline.
Traders use this pattern to enter short (sell) trades. The best entry occurs when price retests the wick of the PSP candle, as this level often acts as a resistance zone, pushing price lower.
If PSP aligns with a significant liquidity area or Order Block in a higher timeframe, traders can enter with greater confidence and place their stop-loss just above the PSP wick.
Overall, PSP is a highly effective tool for filtering false signals and improving trade entry precision. Combining PSP with SMT, Order Blocks, and Fair Value Gaps across multiple timeframes allows traders to execute higher-accuracy trades with lower risk.
🔵 Settings
Mode :
2 Symbol : Identifies PSP and PCP between two correlated assets.
3 Symbol : Compares three assets to detect more complex divergences and stronger confirmation signals.
Second Symbol : The second asset used in PSP and correlation calculations.
Third Symbol : Used in three-symbol mode for deeper PSP and PCP analysis.
Filter Precision X Point : Enables or disables filtering for more precise PSP and PCP detection. This filter only identifies PSP and PCP when the base asset's candle qualifies as a Pin Bar.
Trend Effect : By changing the Trend Effect status to "Off," all Pin bars, whether bullish or bearish, are displayed regardless of the current market trend. If the status remains "On," only Pin bars in the direction of the main market trend are shown.
Bullish Pin Bar Setting : Using the "Ratio Lower Shadow to Body" and "Ratio Lower Shadow to Higher Shadow" settings, you can customize your bullish Pin bar candles. Larger numbers impose stricter conditions for identifying bullish Pin bars.
Bearish Pin Bar Setting : Using the "Ratio Higher Shadow to Body" and "Ratio Higher Shadow to Lower Shadow" settings, you can customize your bearish Pin bar candles. Larger numbers impose stricter conditions for identifying bearish Pin bars.
🔵 Conclusion
Precision Swing Point (PSP) is a powerful analytical tool in Smart Money trading strategies, helping traders identify precise market turning points by detecting divergences in candle closures between correlated assets. PSP is classified into Bullish PSP and Bearish PSP, each playing a crucial role in detecting trend weaknesses and determining optimal entry points for long and short trades.
Using the PSP wick as a key liquidity level, integrating it with SMT, Order Blocks, and Fair Value Gaps, and analyzing higher timeframes are effective techniques to enhance trade entries. Ultimately, PSP serves as a complementary tool for improving entry accuracy and reducing unnecessary stop-outs, making it a valuable addition to Smart Money trading methodologies.
Alpha Wave System @DaviddTechAlpha Wave DaviddTech System by DaviddTech is an advanced, meticulously engineered trading indicator adhering strictly to the DaviddTech methodology. Rather than simply combining popular indicators, Alpha Wave strategically integrates specially-selected technical components—each optimized to enhance their combined strengths while neutralizing individual weaknesses, providing traders with clear, consistent, and high-probability trading signals.
Valid Setup:
🎯 Why This Combination Matters:
Quantum Adaptive Moving Average (Baseline):
This advanced adaptive MA provides superior responsiveness to market shifts by dynamically adjusting its sensitivity, clearly indicating the primary market direction and reducing lag compared to standard moving averages.
WavePulse Indicator (CoralChannel-based Confirmation #1):
Precisely detects shifts in momentum and price acceleration, allowing traders to anticipate trend continuation or reversals effectively, significantly enhancing trade accuracy.
Quantum Channel (G-Channel-based Confirmation #2):
Dynamically captures price volatility ranges, offering reliable trend structure validation and clear support/resistance channels, further increasing signal reliability.
Momentum Density (Volatility Filter):
Ensures traders enter only during optimal volatility conditions by quantifying momentum intensity, effectively filtering out low-quality, low-momentum scenarios.
Dynamic ATR-based Trailing Stop (Exit System):
Automatically manages trade exits with optimized ATR-based stop levels, systematically securing profits while effectively managing risk.
These meticulously integrated components reinforce each other's strengths, providing traders with a robust, disciplined, and clearly structured approach aligned with the DaviddTech methodology.
🔥 Latest Update – Enhanced BUY & SELL Signals:
Alpha Wave now clearly displays automated BUY and SELL signals directly on your chart, coupled with a comprehensive dashboard table for immediate signal validation. Signals appear only when all components—including baseline, confirmations, and volatility—are in alignment, significantly improving trade accuracy and confidence.
📌 How Traders Benefit from the New Signals:
BUY Signal: Execute long trades when Quantum Adaptive MA signals bullish, confirmed by bullish WavePulse momentum, bullish Quantum Channel structure, and strong Momentum Density readings.
SELL Signal: Clearly marked for entering short positions under bearish market conditions verified through Quantum Adaptive MA, WavePulse bearish momentum, Quantum Channel confirmation, and sufficient Momentum Density.
Signal Validation: A dedicated dashboard provides immediate visual strength metrics, allowing traders to quickly validate signals before execution, significantly enhancing trading discipline and consistency.
📊 Recommended DaviddTech Trading Plan:
Baseline: Determine overall market direction using Quantum Adaptive MA. Only trade in the indicated baseline direction.
Confirmations: Validate potential entries with WavePulse and Quantum Channel alignment.
Volatility Filter: Confirm sufficient market volatility with Momentum Density before entry.
Trailing Stop Loss: Manage risk and secure profits using the dynamic ATR-based trailing stop system.
Entries & Exits: Only execute trades when signals and dashboard components unanimously align.
🖼️ Visual Examples:
Alpha Wave by DaviddTech clearly demonstrates how an intelligently integrated system provides significantly superior trading insights compared to standalone indicators, ensuring precise, disciplined, and profitable market entries and exits across all trading environments.
BTCUSD with adjustable sl,tpThis strategy is designed for swing traders who want to enter long positions on pullbacks after a short-term trend shift, while also allowing immediate short entries when conditions favor downside movement. It combines SMA crossovers, a fixed-percentage retracement entry, and adjustable risk management parameters for optimal trade execution.
Key Features:
✅ Trend Confirmation with SMA Crossover
The 10-period SMA crossing above the 25-period SMA signals a bullish trend shift.
The 10-period SMA crossing below the 25-period SMA signals a bearish trend shift.
Short trades are only taken if the price is below the 150 EMA, ensuring alignment with the broader trend.
📉 Long Pullback Entry Using Fixed Percentage Retracement
Instead of entering immediately on the SMA crossover, the strategy waits for a retracement before going long.
The pullback entry is defined as a percentage retracement from the recent high, allowing for an optimized entry price.
The retracement percentage is fully adjustable in the settings (default: 1%).
A dynamic support level is plotted on the chart to visualize the pullback entry zone.
📊 Short Entry Rules
If the SMA(10) crosses below the SMA(25) and price is below the 150 EMA, a short trade is immediately entered.
Risk Management & Exit Strategy:
🚀 Take Profit (TP) – Fully customizable profit target in points. (Default: 1000 points)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL) – Adjustable stop loss level in points. (Default: 250 points)
🔄 Break-Even (BE) – When price moves in favor by a set number of points, the stop loss is moved to break-even.
📌 Extra Exit Condition for Longs:
If the SMA(10) crosses below SMA(25) while the price is still below the EMA150, the strategy force-exits the long position to avoid reversals.
How to Use This Strategy:
Enable the strategy on your TradingView chart (recommended for stocks, forex, or indices).
Customize the settings – Adjust TP, SL, BE, and pullback percentage for your risk tolerance.
Observe the plotted retracement levels – When the price touches and bounces off the level, a long trade is triggered.
Let the strategy manage the trade – Break-even protection and take-profit logic will automatically execute.
Ideal Market Conditions:
✅ Trending Markets – The strategy works best when price follows strong trends.
✅ Stocks, Indices, or Forex – Can be applied across multiple asset classes.
✅ Medium-Term Holding Period – Suitable for swing trades lasting days to weeks.
Risk MeterRisk Meter Indicator for TradingView
The Risk Meter is a powerful market risk assessment tool designed to help traders evaluate the current risk environment using a simple, data-driven score. By analyzing four critical market factors—VIX (volatility index), market breadth, trailing volatility, and credit spreads—the indicator generates a risk score between 0 and 4. This score empowers traders to make informed decisions about hedging, exiting positions, or re-entering the market, with clear visual cues and alerts for intraday monitoring.
What It Does
Calculates a Risk Score: Assigns a score from 0 to 4, where each point reflects an active risk condition based on four market indicators.
Identifies Risk Levels:
A score of 3 or higher indicates a high-risk environment, suggesting traders consider hedging or reducing exposure.
A score of 2 or lower for at least two consecutive days signals a potential opportunity to re-enter the market.
Provides Visual Feedback: Uses color-coded Columns, threshold markers, and a component table for quick interpretation.
Supports Decision-Making: Offers a structured approach to managing risk and timing trades.
How It Works
The Risk Meter aggregates four key risk conditions, each contributing 1 point to the total score when triggered:
Elevated and Rising VIX (Risk 1)
Condition: The VIX is above 18 and higher than it was 20 days ago.
Purpose: Detects increasing market fear or uncertainty.
Market Breadth Dropping (Risk 2)
Condition: Either:
Fewer than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average and fewer than 70% are above their 50-day moving average, or
The 3-day EMA of the 200-day breadth falls below 80% of its 20-day SMA.
Purpose: Identifies weakening participation across the market.
Trailing Volatility (Risk 3)
Condition: The 30-day annualized volatility of the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) exceeds 35%.
Purpose: Highlights periods of heightened price instability.
Credit Spreads (Risk 4)
Condition: The price ratio of high-yield bonds (HYG) to Treasuries (TLT or IEF) is lower than it was 20 days ago, indicating widening credit spreads.
Purpose: Signals potential stress in credit markets.
The total risk score is the sum of these conditions (0 to 4). Additionally, the indicator tracks consecutive days with a score of 2 or lower to generate re-entry signals.
How to Read It Intraday
The Risk Meter is built on daily data but can be monitored intraday for real-time insights. Here’s how traders can interpret it:
Risk Score Plot:
Displayed as a step line ranging from 0 to 4.
Colors:
Red: High risk (score ≥ 3) – caution advised.
Green: Re-entry signal – score ≤ 2 for at least two consecutive days (triggered when the count increments from 1 to 2).
Blue: Neutral or low risk (score < 3 without a re-entry signal).
Threshold Lines:
Dashed Gray Line at 3: Marks the high-risk threshold.
Dotted Gray Line at 2: Indicates the low-risk threshold for re-entry signals.
Risk Component Table:
Located in the top-right corner, it lists:
VIX, Breadth, Volatility, and Credit Spreads.
Status: Shows "" (warning, red) if the risk condition is met, or "✓" (safe, blue) if not.
Helps traders pinpoint which factors are driving the score.
Alerts:
High Risk Alert: Triggers when the score moves from < 3 to ≥ 3.
Re-entry Signal Alert: Triggers when the score ≤ 2 for two consecutive days.
Intraday Usage Tips
Check the indicator throughout the day for early signs of risk shifts, especially if the score is near a threshold (e.g., 2 or 3).
Combine with other intraday tools (e.g., price action, volume) since the Risk Meter updates daily but reflects broader market conditions.
How Traders Can Use It
High-Risk Signal (Score ≥ 3):
Consider hedging positions (e.g., with options) or reducing equity exposure to protect against potential downturns.
Re-entry Signal (Score ≤ 2 for 2+ Days):
Look to re-enter the market or increase exposure, as it suggests stabilizing conditions.
Daily Risk Management:
Use the score and table to assess overall market health and adjust strategies accordingly.
Alert-Driven Trading:
Set up alerts to stay notified of critical risk changes without constant monitoring.
Why Use the Risk Meter?
This indicator offers a systematic, multi-factor approach to risk assessment, blending volatility, breadth, and credit market data into an easy-to-read score. Whether you’re an intraday trader or a longer-term investor, the Risk Meter helps you stay proactive, avoid surprises, and time your trades with greater confidence.
Financial Risk Disclaimer for the Risk Meter Tool
Important Notice: The Risk Meter is a market risk assessment tool designed to provide insights into current market conditions based on historical data and predefined indicators. It is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a guarantee of future market performance.
Key Considerations
No Guarantee of Accuracy: While the Risk Meter utilizes reliable data sources and established financial metrics, the creators do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided. Financial markets are complex and subject to rapid, unpredictable changes, and the tool’s output may not fully reflect all market dynamics.
Market Risks: Trading and investing in financial markets carry significant risks, including the potential loss of principal. Market volatility, economic shifts, and other factors can lead to unexpected outcomes. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, and the Risk Meter’s assessments are based on historical data, not future predictions.
Not a Substitute for Professional Advice: The Risk Meter is not intended to replace personalized financial guidance. Users are strongly encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor, perform their own research, and evaluate their personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any trading or investment decisions.
Limitation of Liability: The creators of the Risk Meter, including any affiliates, developers, or contributors, are not liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this tool. This includes, but is not limited to, financial losses, missed opportunities, or decisions based on the tool’s output.
User Responsibility: By using the Risk Meter, you accept full responsibility for your trading and investment decisions. You acknowledge that you use the tool at your own risk and that the creators bear no responsibility for any outcomes resulting from its use.
Final Note
The Risk Meter is a supplementary tool designed to enhance your understanding of market risk. It is not a comprehensive solution for investment management. Approach trading and investing with caution, ensuring your decisions align with your personal financial strategy.
Adaptive Fibonacci Volatility Bands (AFVB)
**Adaptive Fibonacci Volatility Bands (AFVB)**
### **Overview**
The **Adaptive Fibonacci Volatility Bands (AFVB)** indicator enhances standard **Fibonacci retracement levels** by dynamically adjusting them based on market **volatility**. By incorporating **ATR (Average True Range) adjustments**, this indicator refines key **support and resistance zones**, helping traders identify **more reliable entry and exit points**.
**Key Features:**
- **ATR-based adaptive Fibonacci levels** that adjust to changing market volatility.
- **Buy and Sell signals** based on price interactions with dynamic support/resistance.
- **Toggleable confirmation filter** for refining trade signals.
- **Customizable color schemes** and alerts.
---
## **How This Indicator Works**
The **AFVB** operates in three main steps:
### **1️⃣ Detecting Key Fibonacci Levels**
The script calculates **swing highs and swing lows** using a user-defined lookback period. From this, it derives **Fibonacci retracement levels**:
- **0% (High)**
- **23.6%**
- **38.2%**
- **50% (Mid-Level)**
- **61.8%**
- **78.6%**
- **100% (Low)**
### **2️⃣ Adjusting for Market Volatility**
Instead of using **fixed retracement levels**, this indicator incorporates an **ATR-based adjustment**:
- **Resistance levels** shift **upward** based on ATR.
- **Support levels** shift **downward** based on ATR.
- This makes levels more **responsive** to price action.
### **3️⃣ Generating Buy & Sell Signals**
AFVB provides **two types of signals** based on price interactions with key levels:
✔ **Buy Signal**:
Occurs when price **dips below** a support level (78.6% or 100%) and **then closes back above it**.
- **Optionally**, a confirmation buffer can be enabled to require price to close **above an additional threshold** (based on ATR).
✔ **Sell Signal**:
Triggered when price **breaks above a resistance level** (0% or 23.6%) and **then closes below it**.
📌 **Important:**
- The **buy threshold setting** allows traders to **fine-tune** entry conditions.
- Turning this setting **off** generates **more frequent** buy signals.
- Keeping it **on** reduces false signals but may result in **fewer trade opportunities**.
---
## **How to Use This Indicator in Trading**
### 🔹 **Entry Strategy (Buying)**
1️⃣ Look for **buy signals** at the **78.6% or 100% Fibonacci levels**.
2️⃣ Ensure price **closes above** the support level before entering a long trade.
3️⃣ **Enable or disable** the buy threshold filter depending on desired trade strictness.
### 🔹 **Exit Strategy (Selling)**
1️⃣ Watch for **sell signals** at the **0% or 23.6% Fibonacci levels**.
2️⃣ If price **breaks above resistance and then closes below**, consider exiting long positions.
3️⃣ Can be used **alone** or **combined with trend confirmation tools** (e.g., moving averages, RSI).
### 🔹 **Using the Toggleable Buy Threshold**
- **ON**: Buy signal requires **extra confirmation** (reduces false signals but fewer trades).
- **OFF**: Buy triggers as soon as price **closes back above support** (more signals, but may include weaker setups).
---
## **User Inputs**
### **🔧 Customization Options**
- **ATR Length**: Defines the period for **ATR calculation**.
- **Swing Lookback**: Determines how far back to find **swing highs and lows**.
- **ATR Multiplier**: Adjusts the size of **volatility-based modifications**.
- **Buy/Sell Threshold Factor**: Fine-tunes the **entry signal strictness**.
- **Show Level Labels**: Enables/disables **Fibonacci level annotations**.
- **Color Settings**: Customize **support/resistance colors**.
### **📢 Alerts**
AFVB includes built-in **alert conditions** for:
- **Buy Signals** ("AFVB BUY SIGNAL - Possible reversal at support")
- **Sell Signals** ("AFVB SELL SIGNAL - Possible reversal at resistance")
- **Any Signal Triggered** (Useful for automated alerts)
---
## **Who Is This Indicator For?**
✅ **Scalpers & Day Traders** – Helps identify **short-term reversals**.
✅ **Swing Traders** – Useful for **buying dips** and **selling rallies**.
✅ **Trend Traders** – Can be combined with **momentum indicators** for confirmation.
**Best Timeframes:**
⏳ **15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, Daily charts** (works across multiple assets).
---
## **Limitations & Considerations**
🚨 **Important Notes**:
- **No indicator guarantees profits**. Always **combine** it with **risk management strategies**.
- Works best **in trending & mean-reverting markets**—may generate false signals in **choppy conditions**.
- Performance may vary across **different assets & timeframes**.
📢 **Backtesting is recommended** before using it for live trading.
Multi-Timeframe MACD Strategy ver 1.0Multi-Timeframe MACD Strategy: Enhanced Trend Trading with Customizable Entry and Trailing Stop
This strategy utilizes the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator across multiple timeframes to identify strong trends, generate precise entry and exit signals, and manage risk with an optional trailing stop loss. By combining the insights of both the current chart's timeframe and a user-defined higher timeframe, this strategy aims to improve trade accuracy, reduce exposure to false signals, and capture larger market moves.
Key Features:
Dual Timeframe Analysis: Calculates and analyzes the MACD on both the current chart's timeframe and a user-selected higher timeframe (e.g., Daily MACD on a 1-hour chart). This provides a broader market context, helping to confirm trends and filter out short-term noise.
Configurable MACD: Fine-tune the MACD calculation with adjustable Fast Length, Slow Length, and Signal Length parameters. Optimize the indicator's sensitivity to match your trading style and the volatility of the asset.
Flexible Entry Options: Choose between three distinct entry types:
Crossover: Enters trades when the MACD line crosses above (long) or below (short) the Signal line.
Zero Cross: Enters trades when the MACD line crosses above (long) or below (short) the zero line.
Both: Combines both Crossover and Zero Cross signals, providing more potential entry opportunities.
Independent Timeframe Control: Display and trade based on the current timeframe MACD, the higher timeframe MACD, or both. This allows you to focus on the information most relevant to your analysis.
Optional Trailing Stop Loss: Implements a configurable trailing stop loss to protect profits and limit potential losses. The trailing stop is adjusted dynamically as the price moves in your favor, based on a user-defined percentage.
No Repainting: Employs lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off in the request.security() function to prevent data leakage and ensure accurate backtesting and real-time signals.
Clear Visual Signals (Optional): Includes optional plotting of the MACD and Signal lines for both timeframes, with distinct colors for easy visual identification. These plots are for visual confirmation and are not required for the strategy's logic.
Suitable for Various Trading Styles: Adaptable to swing trading, day trading, and trend-following strategies across diverse markets (stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, etc.).
Fully Customizable: All parameters are adjustable, including timeframes, MACD Settings, Entry signal type and trailing stop settings.
How it Works:
MACD Calculation: The strategy calculates the MACD (using the standard formula) for both the current chart's timeframe and the specified higher timeframe.
Trend Identification: The relationship between the MACD line, Signal line, and zero line is used to determine the current trend for each timeframe.
Entry Signals: Buy/sell signals are generated based on the selected "Entry Type":
Crossover: A long signal is generated when the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, and both timeframes are in agreement (if both are enabled). A short signal is generated when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line, and both timeframes are in agreement.
Zero Cross: A long signal is generated when the MACD line crosses above the zero line, and both timeframes agree. A short signal is generated when the MACD line crosses below the zero line and both timeframes agree.
Both: Combines Crossover and Zero Cross signals.
Trailing Stop Loss (Optional): If enabled, a trailing stop loss is set at a specified percentage below (for long positions) or above (for short positions) the entry price. The stop-loss is automatically adjusted as the price moves favorably.
Exit Signals:
Without Trailing Stop: Positions are closed when the MACD signals reverse according to the selected "Entry Type" (e.g., a long position is closed when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line if using "Crossover" entries).
With Trailing Stop: Positions are closed if the price hits the trailing stop loss.
Backtesting and Optimization: The strategy automatically backtests on the chart's historical data, allowing you to assess its performance and optimize parameters for different assets and timeframes.
Example Use Cases:
Confirming Trend Strength: A trader on a 1-hour chart sees a bullish MACD crossover on the current timeframe. They check the MTF MACD strategy and see that the Daily MACD is also bullish, confirming the strength of the uptrend.
Filtering Noise: A trader using a 15-minute chart wants to avoid false signals from short-term volatility. They use the strategy with a 4-hour higher timeframe to filter out noise and only trade in the direction of the dominant trend.
Dynamic Risk Management: A trader enters a long position and enables the trailing stop loss. As the price rises, the trailing stop is automatically adjusted upwards, protecting profits. The trade is exited either when the MACD reverses or when the price hits the trailing stop.
Disclaimer:
The MACD is a lagging indicator and can produce false signals, especially in ranging markets. This strategy is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Backtest and optimize the strategy thoroughly, combine it with other technical analysis tools, and always implement sound risk management practices before using it with real capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own due diligence and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
