Trading Zones based on RS / Volume / PullbackThis is an Indicator which identifies different Trading Zones on the chart.
This should be Primarily used for Long Trades.
Trading Zones: and the Reasoning behind them
Long Zone -> One can do a Potential Entry (Buy) when this Zone is identified, but one could also wait for 'Entry Zone' (explained next) for a better Risk/Reward Trade.
Long Zones are identified with the help of Relative Strength and by an Intermediate Top in price.
Entry Zone -> This can be a better Risk/Reward zone to enter positions within the Long Zone.
Entry Zone is identified by a Pullback in Price & Volume contraction after the Long Zone is activated
Warning Zone -> One needs to be careful in this zone, no need to panic, Script will now try to find an Exit when Price Retraces towards Highs.
Warning Zone identifies weakness in the Price using Relative Strength of the current Stock (w.r.t. the Reference Symbol configured) and the severity of Pullback in Price.
Exit Zone -> are found only after transitioning to Warning Zone, this is a Zone which helps in minimising losses after a trade has gone into losses. Exit Zone is identified by making sure a local peak forms in Warning Zone. However, there are instances when Exit Zone detection can get prolonged when a local price peak is not formed soon enough. So one needs to be careful and use other strategies for exit.
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What is different in this Script:
The Script uses Relative Strength in combination with Pullback in Price from Highs in a Novel way.
Over-trading is avoided by ignoring Sideways price movements, using Relative Strength.
Only Trending Upward movement is detected and traded.
How to use this Indicator:
Use these 'Trading Zones' only as a reference so it can minimise your time in screening stocks.
Preferred Settings for using the Indicator:
Stick to 1-Day candles
Keep Relative Symbol as "Nifty" for Indian Stocks.
For US stocks, we can use "SPX" as the Relative Symbol.
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FEW EXAMPLES:
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ASIANPAINT
TATAMOTORS
TITAN
ITC
DIVISLAB
MARUTI
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Feedback is welcome.
Cerca negli script per "spx"
Put to Call Ratio CorrelationHello!
Excited to share this with the community!
This is actually a very simple indicator but actually usurpingly helpful, especially for those who trade indices such as SPX, IWM, QQQ, etc.
Before I get into the indicator itself, let me explain to you its development.
I have been interested in the use of option data to detect sentiment and potential reversals in the market. However, I found option data on its own is full of noise. Its very difficult if not impossible for a trader to make their own subjective assessment about how option data is reflecting market sentiment.
Generally speaking, put to call ratios generally range between 0.8 to 1.1 on average. Unless there is a dramatic pump in calls or puts causing an aggressive spike up to over this range, or fall below this range, its really difficult to make the subjective assessment about what is happening.
So what I thought about trying to do was, instead of looking directly at put to call ratio, why not see what happens when you perform a correlation analysis of the PTC ratio to the underlying stock.
So I tried this in pinescript, pulling for Tradingview's ticker PCC (Total Equity Put to Call Ratio) and using the ta.correlation function against whichever ticker I was looking at.
I played around with this idea a bit, pulled the data into excel and from this I found something interesting. When there is a very significant negative or positive correlation between PTC ratio and price movement, we see a reversal impending. In fact, a significant negative or positive correlation (defined as a R value of 0.8 or higher or -0.8 or lower) corresponded to a stock reversal about 92% of the time when data was pulled on a 5 minute timeframe on SPY.
But wait, what is a correlation?
If you are not already familiar, a correlation is simply a statistical relationship. It is defined with a Pearson R correlation value which ranges from 0 (no correlation) to 1 (significant positive correlation) and 0 to -1 (significant negative correlation).
So what does positive vs negative mean?
A significant positive correlation means the correlation is moving the same as the underlying. In the case of this indicator, if there is a significant positive correlation could mean the stock price is climbing at the same time as the PTC ratio.
Inversely, it could mean the stock price is falling as well as the PTC ratio.
A significant negative correlation means the correlation is moving in the opposite direction. So in this case, if the stock price is climbing and the PTC ratio is falling proportionately, we would see a significant negative correlation.
So how does this work in real life?
To answer this, let's get into the actual indicator!
In the image above, you will see the arrow pointing to an area of significant POSITIVE correlation.
The indicator will paint the bars on the actual chart purple (customizable of course) to signify this is an area of significant correlation.
So, in the above example this means that the PTC ratio is increase proportionately to the increase in the stock price in the SAME direction (Puts are going up proportionately to the stock price). Thus, we can make the assumption that the underlying sentiment is overwhelmingly BEARISH. Why? Because option trading activity is significantly proportionate to stock movement, meaning that there is consensus among the options being traded and the movement of the market itself.
And in the above example we will see, the stock does indeed end up selling:
In this case, IWM fell roughly 1 point from where there was bearish consensus in the market.
Let's use this same trading day and same example to show the inverse:
You will see a little bit later, a significant NEGATIVE correlation developed.
In this case identified, the stock wise RISING and the PTC ratio was FALLING.
This means that Puts were not being bought up as much as calls and the sentiment had shifted to bullish .
And from that point, IWM ended up going up an additional 0.75 points from where there was a significant INVERSE correlation.
So you can see that it is helpful for identifying reversals. But what is also can be used for is identifying areas of LOW conviction. Meaning, areas where there really is no relationship between option activity and stock movement. Let's take spy on the 1 hour timeframe for this example:
You can see in the above example there really is no consensus in the option trading activity with the overarching sentiment. The price action is choppy and so too is option trading activity. Option traders are not pushing too far in one direction or the other. We can also see the lack of conviction in the option trading activity by looking at the correlation SMA (the white line).
When a ticker is experiencing volatile and good movement up and down, the SMA will generally trade to the top of the correlation range (roughly + 1.0) and then make a move down to the bottom (roughly - 1.0), see the example below:
When the SMA is not moving much and accumulating around the centerline, it generally means a lot of indecision.
Additional Indicator Information:
As I have said, the indicator is very simple. It pulls the data from the ticker PCC and runs a correlation assessment against whichever ticker you are on.
PCC pulls averaged data from all equities within the market and is not limited to a single equity. As such, its helpful to use this with indices such as SPY, IWM and QQQ, but I have had success with using it on individual tickers such as NVDA and AMD.
The correlation length is defaulted to 14. You can modify it if you wish, but I do recommend leaving it at this as the default and the testing I have done with this have all been on the 14 correlation length.
You can chose to smooth the SMA over whichever length of period you wish as well.
When the indicator is approaching a significant negative or positive relationship, you will see the indicator flash red in the upper or lower band to signify the relationship. As well, the chart will change the bar colour to purple:
Everything else is pretty straight forward.
Let me know your questions/comments or suggestions around the indicator and its applications.
As always, no indicator is meant to provide a single, reliable strategy to your trading regimen and no indicator or group of indicators should be relied on solely. Be sure to do your own analysis and assessments of the stock prior to taking any trades.
Safe trades everyone!
Lorentzian Classification Strategy Based in the model of Machine learning: Lorentzian Classification by @jdehorty, you will be able to get into trending moves and get interesting entries in the market with this strategy. I also put some new features for better backtesting results!
Backtesting context: 2022-07-19 to 2023-04-14 of US500 1H by PEPPERSTONE. Commissions: 0.03% for each entry, 0.03% for each exit. Risk per trade: 2.5% of the total account
For this strategy, 3 indicators are used:
Machine learning: Lorentzian Classification by @jdehorty
One Ema of 200 periods for identifying the trend
Supertrend indicator as a filter for some exits
Atr stop loss from Gatherio
Trade conditions:
For longs:
Close price is above 200 Ema
Lorentzian Classification indicates a buying signal
This gives us our long signal. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point), break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 and take profit of 3:1 where half position will be closed. This will be showed as buy.
The other half will be closed when the model indicates a selling signal or Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal. This will be showed as cl buy.
For shorts:
Close price is under 200 Ema
Lorentzian Classification indicates a selling signal
This gives us our short signal. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point), break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 and take profit of 3:1 where half position will be closed. This will be showed as sell.
The other half will be closed when the model indicates a buying signal or Supertrend indicator gives a bullish signal. This will be showed as cl sell.
Risk management
To calculate the amount of the position you will use just a small percent of your initial capital for the strategy and you will use the atr stop loss or last swing for this.
Example: You have 1000 usd and you just want to risk 2,5% of your account, there is a buy signal at price of 4,000 usd. The stop loss price from atr stop loss or last swing is 3,900. You calculate the distance in percent between 4,000 and 3,900. In this case, that distance would be of 2.50%. Then, you calculate your position by this way: (initial or current capital * risk per trade of your account) / (stop loss distance).
Using these values on the formula: (1000*2,5%)/(2,5%) = 1000usd. It means, you have to use 1000 usd for risking 2.5% of your account.
We will use this risk management for applying compound interest.
> In settings, with position amount calculator, you can enter the amount in usd of your account and the amount in percentage for risking per trade of the account. You will see this value in green color in the upper left corner that shows the amount in usd to use for risking the specific percentage of your account.
> You can also choose a fixed amount, so you will have to activate fixed amount in risk management for trades and set the fixed amount for backtesting.
Script functions
Inside of settings, you will find some utilities for display atr stop loss, break evens, positions, signals, indicators, a table of some stats from backtesting, etc.
You will find the settings for risk management at the end of the script if you want to change something or trying new values for other assets for backtesting.
If you want to change the initial capital for backtest the strategy, go to properties, and also enter the commisions of your exchange and slippage for more realistic results.
In risk managment you can find an option called "Use leverage ?", activate this if you want to backtest using leverage, which means that in case of not having enough money for risking the % determined by you of your account using your initial capital, you will use leverage for using the enough amount for risking that % of your acount in a buy position. Otherwise, the amount will be limited by your initial/current capital
I also added a function for backtesting if you had added or withdrawn money frequently:
Adding money: You can choose how often you want to add money (Monthly, yearly, daily or weekly). Then a fixed amount of money and activate or deactivate this function
Withdraw money: You can choose if you want to withdraw a fixed amount or a percentage of earnings. Then you can choose a fixed amount of money, the period of time and activate or deactivate this function. Also, the percentage of earnings if you choosed this option.
Some other assets where strategy has worked
BTCUSD 4H, 1D
ETHUSD 4H, 1D
BNBUSD 4H
SPX 1D
BANKNIFTY 4H, 15 min
Some things to consider
USE UNDER YOUR OWN RISK. PAST RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE FUTURE.
DEPENDING OF % ACCOUNT RISK PER TRADE, YOU COULD REQUIRE LEVERAGE FOR OPEN SOME POSITIONS, SO PLEASE, BE CAREFULL AND USE CORRECTLY THE RISK MANAGEMENT
Do not forget to change commissions and other parameters related with back testing results!. If you have problems loading the script reduce max bars back number in general settings
Strategies for trending markets use to have more looses than wins and it takes a long time to get profits, so do not forget to be patient and consistent !
Please, visit the post from @jdehorty called Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification for a better understanding of his script!
Any support and boosts will be well received. If you have any question, do not doubt to ask!
Market Relative Candle Ratio ComparatorIntroducing the Market Relative Candle Ratio Comparator, a visually captivating script that eases the way you compare two financial assets, such as cryptocurrencies and market indices. Leveraging a distinctive calculation method based on percentage changes and their averages, this tool presents a crystal-clear view of how your chosen assets perform in relation to each other, both for individual candles and over a range of previous candles.
Tailoring the script to your preferences is a walk in the park, as it allows you to easily adjust input symbols, moving average lengths, and other parameters to match your analytical approach. The visually arresting column chart it creates employs vivid red and green colors to underscore the differences between the two assets on each candle. Simultaneously, the lower-opacity columns depict the accumulated differences over a specified lookback period. This vibrant blend of colors and opacities results in a dynamic visual experience, enabling you to better grasp market trends relative to each other.
The reverse bool input is a handy feature that lets you invert the effect of the input symbol (DXY by default) in the comparison. When you set the reverse input to true, the script multiplies the calculated DXY percentage change by -1, effectively reversing the comparison. This is particularly useful when examining assets with an inverse relationship or when you'd like to analyze the input symbol's impact in the opposite direction.
For instance, if the input symbol represents a market index that generally moves in the opposite direction of the selected cryptocurrency, enabling the reverse input will help you better visualize and understand the relationship between the two assets by inverting the input symbol's effect on the comparison.
In the accompanying chart, you can observe the comparison of Bitcoin's movement relative to the Dollar, Gold, Bonds, and the S&P 500. The indicator reveals that in the last day, Bitcoin outperformed Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar but not the S&P 500!
Percent of U.S. Stocks Above VWAPThis indicator plots a line reflecting the percentage of all U.S. stocks above or below their VWAP for the given candle. Horizontal lines have been placed at 40% (oversold), 50% (mid-line), and 60% (overbought). I recommend using this indicator as a market breadth indicator when trading individual stocks. In my experience, this indicator is best utilized while trading the major indices (SPX, SPY, QQQ, IWM) or their futures (ES, NQ, RTY) in the following manner:
- When the line crosses 50%, a green or red triangle is plotted indicating the majority of market momentum has turned bullish or bearish based on price positioning vs. VWAP. Look for longs when the line is rising (green) or above 50%, or shorts when the line is falling (red) or below 50%.
- When the line is below 40%, indicator shows red shading; I would not be long anything during this period. When the line exits this level, I begin looking for long entries. This line is adjustable in the indicator settings if you prefer to use a tighter or looser oversold level.
- When the line is above 60%, indicator shows green shading; I would not be short anything during this period. When the line exits this level, I begin looking for short entries. This line is adjustable in the indicator settings if you prefer to use a tighter or looser overbought level.
This indicator uses the TradingView ticker “PCTABOVEVWAP.US”, thus it only updates during NY market hours. If trading futures, I recommend applying VWAP to your chart and using that as the level to trade against in a similar manner, along with your personal price action analysis and other indicators you find useful.
Opening Range with FibsThe indicator uses a time range and another instrument for time reference, so that it works in the time zone you care about. I have set the default to SPX500USD since it is in EST ( SPX , ES and many futures are on Chicago time and opening range gets confused). You can change the reference instrument in the settings.
You can also change the multipliers and use other values instead of 1.272 and 1.618 for Fib extensions.
TradingView has a limit as to how many objects an indicator can create so if you want to go back further for visual backtesting - use the replay tool - it will be able to draw up to the time you selected within its limits.
Let me know if you need anything else...
Happy Trading!
Pre-market Highs & Lows on regular trading hours (RTH) chartShows pre-market highs and lows on RTH or ETH chart
-Pre-market duration user input (default is 16 'bar hours'; covering the time from S&P RTH close at 4pm >> 9:30am RTH open next day
-Displays on both RTH and ETH charts
-Written for ES (ES1! or e.g ESM2023), but tested and working on SPY, SPX
-Works across timeframes
Example usage on Electronic trading hours (ETH) chart; showing the 'bar hours' user input lookback duration visually
4C Options Expected Move (Weekly + 0DTE)This indicator plots the calculated Expected Move for BOTH Weekly and Zero Dated Expiration (0DTE) Daily options, for a quick visual reference.
Please Note: This indicator is different from our original "4C Expected Move (Weekly Options)" indicator, as it now packages the ability to ALSO plot 0DTE options expected moves along with Weekly expected moves. Many other newer features have also been implemented.
Background Information
The Expected Move (EM) is the amount that a stock is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of options pricing and implied volatility.
This range can be viewed as possible support and resistance, or, once price gets outside of the range, institutional hedging actions can accelerate the move in that direction.
It can be useful to know what the weekly EM range is for a stock to understand the probabilities of the overall distance, direction and volatility for the week.
About the Indicator
This indicator plots the calculated Expected Move for BOTH Weekly and Zero Dated Expiration (0DTE) options, for a quick visual reference.
For the weekly EM, the range is based on the Weekly close of the prior week.
For the Daily EM based on 0DTE options, the range is based on the Daily close of the prior day.
The indicator will automatically start a new weekly EM plot at the beginning of the week, and a new daily EM at the beginning of each day.
The EM values must be updated weekly and/or daily.
Features
Plots the EM for the week
Plots the EM for the day, for symbols that offer daily expiration options
Plots the 2 Standard Deviation EM for both the weekly and daily EM
Labels with calculated values are plotted near the levels for quick visual aid
Settings
Can toggle weekly EM on/off
Can toggle Daily EM on/off
Can toggle 2 Standard Deviation lines on/off
Can toggle labels for all EM on/off
Robust line settings
Can adjust label location left/right based on personal preference
Can enter symbol into settings as a reference
Handy instructions in the settings
How To Set Up The Indicator
To use this indicator you must have access to a broker with options data (not available on Tradingview).
Usually, you can look at the stock's option chain to find the weekly expected move.
You will have to do your own research to find where this information is displayed depending on your broker. You may also need to find the information elsewhere if your broker does not have this information.
You can also do your calculation of the EM using the following formula (please do your own research):
Expected Move = Option Price x Implied Volatility x Square Root of Time
See screenshot example below
This is the Thinkorswim platform's option chain, and the Implied Volatility % and the calculated EM are on the right side of the option chain.
The Expected Move is circled in blue. Use the +- number in parentheses, NOT the % value.
For the weekly EM, input the number that corresponds to the weekly option into the indicator. This must be done on a weekly basis, and It is typically best to use the EM for the next week expiration that is generated AFTER the Friday close and/or before the Monday open of the upcoming week.
For the daily EM, input the number that corresponds to the daily 0DTE option into the indicator. This must be done on a daily basis, and it is typically best to use the EM value for the 0DTE option that is generated the night before (after market close), or before the market opens for that 0DTE. .
Bitcoin Relative Value IndicatorThis script retrieves the close price data for Bitcoin, DXY, CPIAUCSL, M2 money supply, and SPX and calculates the average of the four data points. It then calculates the relative value of Bitcoin by dividing the Bitcoin close price by the average of the four data points. The script determines whether the relative value is increasing or decreasing and plots the relative value on the chart using a green line if it's increasing and a red line if it's decreasing.
Pin Candle DetectionPin candles are a variation of hammer candles that are useful in technical analysis . In particular, when combined with volume profile studies, they can be a powerful set up for long entries or other decision making.
For example, when looking at volume profiles, a long entry would be a fair value area (i.e. 40%) below the close of a pin candle. When combined with a support level , the set up is stronger.
While most scripts look for hammer candles, pin candles are somewhat different in that the length of the wick is significant.
This script and its parameters was built for ES futures 15 min chart in mind.
This script is unique in that it allows for the below parameters to be adjusted to suit other instruments and timeframes:
1. Fib level: Candle must close within a certain retracement level). My preference is 0.55. Some traders like 0.5, while others prefer 0.33
2. Wick length: Pin candles differ from pure hammers in that the length of the wick must be significant. My preference is 7 points on ES (as in $ and not ticks)
Add this script to your alerts to no longer miss these set ups.
Anchored SMAThis is not your usual single moving average (SMA) indicator. It is an anchored SMA indicator. The anchored SMA does what other SMAs cannot--it stays at an anchored timeframe and presents that SMA relative to the timeframe you are in. For example, standard SMA indicators adjust to the timeframe you are viewing in your chart. So if you set it to a 20 day SMA while in the 1 Day timeframe, when you switch to the 5 minute timeframe, your 20 day SMA now becomes a 100 minute SMA indicator--that is it is only calculating the SMA for 20 ticks at 5 minutes each rather than holding the 20 day indicator at the higher timeframe. However, with the anchored SMA, the indicator would have held at the 20 day SMA while you were in the 5 minute timeframe.
The default setting is for the anchored SMA is the five day SMA. This can be adjusted in the settings to be any amount of ticks in any timeframe you choose from 1 minute to 1 week. The indicator does not hold accurately at timeframes outside of this range. The accompanying chart is the SPX in the 15 minute timeframe with the default anchored SMA settings in blue and the standard 200 tick SMA in black. Now, you could manually adjust the ticks to 130 SMA to fit the same blue line, but why do so when the anchored SMA does it for you?
This brings us to a very important note--this indicator is set to standard market hours at 6.5 hours per day. This means this indicator would not give the same results in markets with different hours, such as futures, FOREX, or Crypto markets. This only holds for equity markets. However, that is not to say it cannot be used in these other markets, it's that it wouldn't be the same result. Anyway, enjoy!
Index Value RainbowThis indicator is used to estimate Index valuation based on each countries base money supply M0. The chart will compare how the index value will move alongside with base money supply for comparison study. The chart presented here is just a relative comparison with some scaling and shifting so it doesn't refers to any real measurement. However it can be used to track the index whether it's too cheap or too expensive in relative to money supply available in the market.
- The gray line represent the money supply M0
- The rainbow above the gray line represent the multiplication factors from 1x, 2x, ..., 10x
- The rainbow below the gray line represent the division factors from 0.8x, 0.6x, ..., 0.2x
This indicator can only be used with specific indices mentioned below. Currently can be used to estimate the value of largest indices by market cap:
- US Index - based on Fed Balance Sheet (SPX, NDX, DJI, RUI, RUT, RUA, ES1!, NQ1!, YM1!, RTY1!)
- EU Index - based on M1 Money Supply (N100, EU500)
- JP Index - based on M0 Money Supply (NI225, NKY)
- CN Index - based on M0 Money Supply (000001, 399001)
- HK Index - based on M0 Money Supply (HSI)
- SG Index - based on M0 Money Supply (STI)
- CA Index - based on M0 Money Supply (TSX)
- AU Index - based on M0 Money Supply (ASX200, AUS200)
- ID Index - based on M0 Money Supply (COMPOSITE)
Check other script to value stock and index:
- Stock Value Rainbow: script to value stock based on book value, earning, dividend and cash flow
- Index Value Rainbow: script to value index based on fed balance sheet and base money supply
- Gold Value Rainbow: script to value gold based on global money supply
- Stock Value US: script to check US stock value
- Stock Value EU: script to check EU stock value
- Stock Value JP: script to check JP stock value
- Stock Value CN: script to check CN stock value
Failed Breakdown Detection'Failed Breakdowns' are a popular set up for long entries.
In short, the set up requires:
1) A significant low is made ('initial low')
2) Initial low is undercut with a new low
3) Price action then 'reclaims' the initial low by moving +8-10 points from the initial low
This script aims at detecting such set ups. It was coded with the ES Futures 15 minute chart in mind but may be useful on other instruments and time frames.
Business Logic:
1) Uses pivot lows to detect 'significant' initial lows
2) Uses amplitude threshold to detect a new low beneath the initial low; used /u/ben_zen script for this
3) Looks for a valid reclaim - a green candle that occurs within 10 bars of the new low
4) Price must reclaim at least 8 points for the set up to be valid
5) If a signal is detected, the initial low value (pivot low) is stored in array that prevents duplicate signals from being generated.
6) FBD Signal is plotted on the chart with "X"
7) Pivot low detection is plotted on the chart with "P" and a label
8) New lows are plotted on the chart with a blue triangle
Notes:
User input
- My preference is to use the defaults as is, but as always feel free to experiment
- Can modify pivot length but in my experience 10/10 work best for pivot lows
- New low detection - 55 bars and 0.05 amplitude work well based on visual checks of signals
- Can modify the number of points needed to reclaim a low, and the # of bars limit under which this must occur.
Alerts:
- Alerts are available for detection of new lows and detection of failed breakdowns
- Alerts are also available for these signals but only during 7:30PM-4PM EST - 'prime time' US trading hours
Limitations:
- Current version of the script only compares new lows to the most recent pivot low, does not look at anything prior to that
- Best used as a discretionary signal
Visit /u/ben_zen's Profile:
www.tradingview.com
Profile Link www.tradingview.com
Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above.
RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions.
Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession.
IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices
Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold.
Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels.
Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality.
Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected.
Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets.
Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org
Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison.
Stock Relative Strength Power IndexAs always, this is not financial advice and use at your own risk. Trading is risky and can cost you significant sums of money if you are not careful. Make sure you always have a proper entry and exit plan that includes defining your risk before you enter a trade.
This idea recently came out of some discussions I stumbled across in a trading group I am a part of regarding Relative Strength and Relative Weakness (shortened to RS and RW from here on out). The whole mechanism behind this trading system is to filter out underperforming securities relative to the current market direction to be in only the strongest or weakest stocks when the market is currently experiencing a bullish or bearish cycle. The idea behind this is there is no point in parking your money into a stock that is treading water or even going down if the market is making strong moves upwards. At that point, you are at worst losing money, and at best trading equal to the index/ETF, in which case the argument is why are you not just trading the index/ETF instead? RS or RW will filter out these sector laggards and allow you to position yourself into strong (or the strongest) stocks at any given time to help improve portfolio performance. Further, not only does it protect your position should the market shift against you briefly, it also often sees exceptional performance in the same cycle. For example, if $SPY makes a 5% move over the course of a month, a stock with RS/RW may make a 10% move, or more, allowing you to see increased profit potential.
RS/RW is based on the idea of performance, that is the raw percent change of a security over a given time period relative to a benchmark. This benchmark is often the S&P500 (ES/SPX/SPY and their derivatives). I have to stress that this is not beta, which measures the volatility of a stock over a given period (i.e. if $SPY moves $1, $NVDA will often move $1.74). This is a measurement of the market (i.e. $SPY) has moved 1% over the course of a day, $NVDA has moved 8% over the course of the day. This is very often used as a signal of institutional interest as apart from some very unique moments, retail traders cannot and will not provide enough market pressure to move a market outside of a stock's normal trading range, nor will they outperform the sector or market as a whole consistently over time without some big money to make them move. The problem with running strict performance analysis (i.e. % change from period T ago to period T + n at present) is that while it gives us a baseline of how much the stock has moved, it doesn't overall mean much. For instance, if a $100 stock has moved 5% today, but has been experiencing a period of increased volatility and it's Average True Range (ATR) (the amount a stock will move over X number of periods, on average) is $7, performance seems impressive but is actually generally fairly weak to what the stock has been doing recently. Conversely, if we take a second stock, this time worth $20, and it too has moved 5% in one day but has an ATR of only $0.25, that stock has made an exceptional move and we want to be part of that.
Here, I have created an indicator called the Stock Relative Strength Power Index. This takes the stock's rate of change (ROC) (the % move it has made over X number of periods), the stock's normalized ATR (the ATR represented as a percentage instead of a raw value), and compares these to one another to get the "Power Rating": a representation of the true strength of a stock over X number of periods. The indicator does two things. First, the raw ROC is divided by the stock's normalized ATR to assess whether the stock is moving outside of its normal range of variation or not. Second, since we are interested in trading only stocks with exceptional RS/RW to the market, I have also applied this same calculation to the S&P500 ($SPY) and the various SPDR sector indexes. These comparisons allow for a rapid and accurate assessment of the true strength of a stock at any given time on any given time frame. To cycle back above to our examples, the $100 stock has a Power Rating of only 0.71 (i.e. it is trading less than its current average), while our $20 stock has a Power Rating of 5. If we then compare these to both the market as a whole and the sector that the stock is a part of, we get a much clearer indication of the true buying or selling pressure imposed on the stock at any given time.
Use:
The indicator has 3 lines. The blue line is the security of interest, the red line is the market baseline (i.e. the sector ETF $SPY), and the white line is the sector index. I have given an example above on the semiconductor/tech stock $NVDA on a 30min timeframe. You can see that since the start of 2023, $NVDA has generally been strong to the market and its own sector since the blue line is greater than both the red and white lines over many days. This would have provided some nice day trading opportunities, or even some nice short term swing trades. The values themselves are generally meaningless outside of either the 1 or -1 value lines. All that matters is that the current ticker is surpassing both the market and the sector while being > 1.0 for a long trade or less than -1.0 for a short trade. However, I must stress this indicator gives no trade signals on its own, it is purely a confirmation indicator. An example of a trade would be if you had a trade signal given by either an indicator or by price action suggesting to buy some $NVDA for a trade to the upside, the Power Rating indicator would confirm this by showing if $NVDA was actually showing true strength by being both greater than 1 (the cutoff for it surpassing its ATR) and being above both the red and white lines. Further, you can see $NVDA has been stronger than the market when using the comparison function as well, but the has fluxed in and out of strength intraday when using the actual indicator vs. the static performance ratio chart (plotted as line graphs on the chart).
I have made it possible to change the colour of the plots and the line levels. The adjustment of the line levels gives the trader the flexibility to change their target breakout level (i.e. only trading stocks that have a Power Rating > 2, for example, meaning they are trading at least 2X their normal trading range). The third security comparison is flexible and can be used to compare to the sector ETF (initial intention) or it can be used to compare to other tickers within the same sector, for example. The trader should select the appropriate ETF for the given security of interest to avoid false confirmation if they want to use an ETF as their third input. The proper sector should be readily available on most online websites and accessible in a matter of seconds meaning that the delay is minimal, at worst. If a trader wishes to add additional functionality, such as a crypto trader using BTCUSD as the benchmark instead of $SPY, I encourage them to copy and paste this script and modify as needed since I have made this open source.
This indicator works on all timeframes. The lookback period can be changed, so a day trader who may use a 5min chart (and use a period of 12 to get the hourly Power Rating) will find this equally useful as someone who may be a core trader who wants to look at the performance over the course of years and may use a 60 period on a monthly chart.
Happy trading and I hope this helps!
Relative Performance Dashboard v. 2This is a smaller and cleaner version of my previous Relative Performance table. It looks at the rate of change over 1M, 3M, 6M, 1YR & YTD and displays those for the current chart's ticker vs. an index/ticker of your choosing (SPX is default). I also have some fields for the ADR of the displayed chart, how far away the displayed chart is from 52-week highs, and a single number that compares the average relative strength of the displayed chart vs. the index. The way this average calculates is customizable by the user.
I like using this table next to an Earnings/Sales/Volume table that already exists by another user in the same pane and I designed this one so it can look just like that one to give a great view of the both fundamental and technical strength of your ticker in the same pane.
Keeping fundamental data independent from performance data allows you to still be able to see performance on things without fundamental data (i.e. ETFs, Indices, Crypto, etc.) as any script that uses fundamental data will not display when a chart that does not have fundamental data is displayed.
Global Money Supply USD-AdjustedGlobal Money Supply Aggregates
- US, China, EU, Japan, UK
- Korea, India, Canada, HK, Australia
- Taiwan, Brazil, Swiss, Russia, Mexico
- Thailand, Indonesia, Saudi, Singapore, Vietnam
Unfortunately, TV Pine can only take in 40 tickers, Each country has Money Supply Data adjusted against its FX to USD.
The formula in TV only can contain 10 tickers. So would recommend doing it up yourself on the first big 5 countries,
Anyway US and China constitute close to 50% of the global money supply.
However, one can argue whether money supply data (broad money) is valid nowadays. But I would bring up that this is just for comparison and trend purposes. Yes, M3 was removed from the US Fed data releases in end-2005.
Aggregating all of the above tickers yield me around 120tn of money supply, USD-adjusted.
There's pretty much other countries that should be included but due to the lack of data and small size of the country, it is omitted.
Examples:
- Heavily Sanctioned: Iran (400-500bn) and Iraq (200-300bn)
- No Data/Bad Data: Algeria (100bn), Bangladesh (110bn)
- Fallen Angels: Venezuela (100bn?), Argentina (120bn)
- 400-500bn club: Israel, Turkey, Poland, Sweden, Ireland, UAE, Msia, Chile
- 200-300bn club: Norway, Czech, Philippines, S.Africa, New Zealand, Egypt, Denmark, Qatar
- 100bn club: Colombia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Morocco, Romania, Hungary, Nigeria, Kuwait
- GDP 1bn club: Peru, Kazakhstan, Angola, Sudan, Ukraine, Ecuador
All these could add up to 10-15tn money supply, but with currencies with bad adoption on some. End of the day, we still living in a dollarised world, with the big 5 nations taking up to 80% of the officially published money supply. The unfortunate issue is that the money supply data isn't that forward-looking. A simple linear extrapolation of historical 3-month rolling average for next month estimates can be decent, with possibility of manual meddling to add adjustments on huge macro-events eg QE infinity.
Perhaps, additional tweaking would be inflation-adjusting this. Against SPX, some housing index, crude oil, gold.
howmuch.net
Price Distance RatioThis study plots the ratio between current price and the price N days ago.
With N input that is configurable, users can find optimal long/short entries when price is in an established trend and price has diverge far from a given local peak or all time high.
With many years of stock trading the analysis indicates a connection between the distance of price and subsequent returns.
Portfolios of stocks with lower price to local highes ratios generally underperformed portfolios of stocks with higher prices to peaks reached similar N days ago.
The highest returns to previous peak are recorded when buying at the biggest dip.
For example, the purchase at 20% drawdown could generate 25% when price returns to the peak. The purchase at 50% drawdown could generate bigger, i.e. 100% return, when price returns to the peak. And the purchase at 90% drawdown could generate much bigger, i.e. 900% return, in a case the price returns to the peak.
However, buying very far below local peaks on almost all holding periods produces lower CAGR returns because of "timing adjustment". In simple words, typically the drawdown takes less time vs. further recovery.
For example:
👉 The largest BTC drawdown in 2013-2015 took 410 days (Peak-to-Valley) . And the recovery of BTC to new highs took 771 days (Valley-to-Peak) after that.
👉 The 3rd longest drawdown in BTC took 363 days (observed from December 17, 2017 to December 15, 2018). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took almost two years - 716 days .
👉The 4th longest drawdown in BTC took 162 days (observed from June 08, 2011 to November 17, 2011). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took more than a year - 469 days .
The concept of this study could recognizes at least 4 different modes of action.
👉 In a clearly established upward trend traders should be buying (following the trend) when Ratio is above 100% and reducing the size when Ratio turns below 100%.
👉 Conversely, in a clearly established downward trend traders should be shorted when Ratio is below 100% and covering when the Ratio turns back to 100%.
👉 In a sideways movement traders are advised to wait carefully if the Ratio near 100% for a long time, and take a position the trend is clear.
👉 Chartists can analyze the dynamic of the indicator - both in terms of trends and overall level. For example as it shown at the chart.
The understading of the study and rules of "timing adjustments" could genarate the awesome opportunities for stock options traders also, with strategies of selling uncovered call options and vertical call spreads.
// Many thanks to @HPotter and @Wheeelman wizards for their continious support and assistance.
True Trend Average BandsThis is the indicator I am most proud of. After reading Glenn Neely's book "Mastering Eliott Waves" / "Neowave" and chatting with @timwest who got acknowledged by Neely, we came up with the idea of an moving average which does calculate the real average price since a trend started. Addionally I adapted a method from Neely Neowave and Tim Wests TimeAtMode to not force a timeframe on a chart but instead let the charts data decide which timeframe to use, to then calculate the real average price since the trend started.
It took me a while to get this right and coded, so take a moment and dive deeper and you might learn something new.
We assume that the price is in multiple trends on multiple timeframes, this is caused by short term traders, long term traders and investors who trade on different timeframes. To find out in which timeframe the important trends are, we have to look out for significant lows and highs. Then we change the timeframe in the chart to a value so that we have 10 to 20 bars since the significant low/high. While new bars are printed, and we reach more than 20 bars, we have to switch to a higher timeframe so we have 10 to 20 bars again. In the chart you see two significant trends: a downtrend on the 3 week timeframe and an uptrend from the 2 month timeframe. Based on the logic I have described, these are the two important timeframes to watch right now for the spx (there is another uptrend in the yearly chart, which is not shown here).
Now that we understand how to find the important timeframes, let's look what the magic in this script is that tells us the real average price since a trend started.
I developed a new type of moving average, which includes only the prices since a trend started. The difference to the regular sma is that it will not include prices which happened before the significant low or high happened. For example, if a top happened in a market 10 days ago, the regular sma20 would be calculated by 10 bars which happened before the top and 10 bars which happened after the top. If we want to know the average price of the last 10 bars we manually have to change the ma20 to the ma10 which is annoying manual work, additionally even if we use the ma10 in this case, and we look at yesterday's bar the ma10 will include 9 bars from after the top and one bar before the top, so the ma10 would only show the real average price for the current bar which is not what we want.
To come up with a solution to this problem, the True Trend Average searches for the lowest/highest bar in a given period (20 bars). Then starts to calculate the average value since the low/high. For example: if the price reaches a new 20 day high and then trades below it, the day of the high will be the sma1, the day after it's the sma2, ... up to the maximum look back length.
This way, we always know what the average price would have been if someone sold/bought a little bit every bar of his investment since the high/low.
Why is this even important? Let's assume we missed selling the top or buying the low, and think it would have been at least better to buy/sell a little bit since the new trend started. Once the price reaches the true trend average again, we can buy/sell, and it would be as good as selling/buying a little bit every day. We find prices to buy the dip and sell the bounce, which are as good as scaling in/out.
There is a lot more we can learn from these price levels but I think it is better to let you figure out yourself what you can learn from the information given by this indicator. Think about how market participants who accumulate or distribute feel when prices are above or below certain levels.
Now that we understand this new type of moving average, let's look into the lines we see in the chart:
The upper red band line shows the true trend average high price since the last significant top within 20 bars.
The lower red band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant top within 20 bars.
The lower green band line shows the true trend average low price since the last significant low within 20 bars.
The upper green band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant low within 20 bars.
The centerline is the average between the upper red band and the lower green band.
The teal lines show 1 standard deviation from the outer bands.
Before today only a few people had access to this indicator, now that it is public and open source, I am curious if you will find it useful and what you will do with it. Please share your findings.
/edit: The chart only shows the 3week timeframe so here are the other two trends from the 2month and 1year timeframe
Expected Move Plotter IntradayHello everyone!
I am releasing my Intra-day expected move plotter indicator.
About the indicator:
This indicator looks at 3 differing time frames, the 15, 30 and 60 minute time frames.
It calculates the average move from high to low over the past 5 candle period and then plots out the expected move based on that average.
It also attempts to determine the sentiment. How it does this is by taking the average of the High, Low and Close of the previous 5 minute candle and comparing it in relation to the close of the current 5 minute candle. It essentially is the premise of pivot points.
Each time frame can be shut off or selected based on your preference, as well as the sentiment fills.
How to use:
Please play around with it and determine how you feel you could best use it, but I can share with you some tips that I have picked up from using this.
Wait for a clear rejection of respect of a level:
Once you have confirmed rejection or support, you can scalp to the next support level:
As well, you can switch between the 30 and 60 minute time frames as reference
30 Minute:
And that's it!
Its a very simplistic indicator, but it is quite helpful to help identify potential areas of reversal.
There really isn't much to it!
Also, it can be used on any stock!
As always, I have provided a quick tutorial video for your reference, linked below:
Let me know if you have any questions or recommendations for modification to make the indicator more useful and helpful.
Thanks so much for checking it out and trying it out everyone!
As always, safe trades and green days!
Mean Reversion DotsMarkets tend to mean revert. This indicator plots a moving average from a higher time frame (type of MA and length selectable by the user). It then calculates standard deviations in two dimensions:
- Standard deviation of move of price away from this moving average
- Standard deviations of number of bars spent in this extended range
The indicator plots a table in the upper right corner with the % of distance of price from the moving average. It then plots 'mean reversion dots' once price has been 1 or more standard deviations away from the moving average for one or more standard deviations number of bars. The dots change color, becoming more intense, the longer the move persists. Optionally, the user can display the standard deviations in movement away from the moving average as channels, and the user can also select which levels of moves they want to see. Opting to see only more extreme moves will result in fewer signals, but signals that are more likely to imminently result in mean reversion back to the moving average.
In my opinion, this indicator is more likely to be useful for indices, futures, commodities, and select larger cap names.
Combinations I have found that work well for SPX are plotting the 30min 21ema on a 5min chart and the daily 21ema on an hourly chart.
In many cases, once mean reversion dots for an extreme enough move (level 1.3 or 2.2 and above) begin to appear, a trade may be initiated from a support/resistance level. A safer way to use these signals is to consider them as a 'heads up' that the move is overextended, and then look for a buy/sell signal from another indicator to initiate a position.
Note: I borrowed the code for the higher timeframe MA from the below indicator. I added the ability to select type of MA.
Ticker vs IndexI was exploring a simple idea how I can visualize the ticker performance against the underlying Index (or any other ticker) performance.
how it works:
When the line is moving up (blue zone), the ticker is performing better than the underlying index (e.g. SPX)(configurable).
When the line is moving down (red zone), the ticker is performing worse than the underlying index.
How to use it:
Use as confirmation always in conjunction with other (main) indicators, avoid "buy" when indicator is in the red zone
Also, crossing over the zero line is often an indication for an upcoming upward move
Try to different SMA length - default is 20 but 10 was often showing better results
(No financial advise, for testing purposes only)
SPX_Strikes_OpcionSigmaThis is a tool to know the strikes to use for Iron Condor.
You can change the colors for the lines.
It uses the VIX to estimate the movement of the SPX index.
