TASC 2022.04 S&P500 Hybrid Seasonal System█ OVERVIEW
TASC's April 2022 edition of Traders' Tips includes the "Sell In May? Stock Market Seasonality" article authored by Markos Katsanos. This is the code implementing the "Hybrid Seasonal System" from the article.
█ CONCEPTS
In his article, Markos Katsanos takes an updated look at the "Sell in May" adage by reviewing recent historical data for seasonal equity market tendencies. The author explores the development of a trading strategy (a set of buy and sell rules) based on this research.
He starts from the enhanced buy & hold system featured in his July 2021 TASC article, and adds additional technical conditions. These include volatility conditions ( VIX and ATR ) plus the "Volume Flow Indicator" (VFI), which is a custom money flow indicator that Katsanos introduced in his June 2004 TASC article. He provides an example of a trading system that others can test for themselves and modify as they see fit. The author notes that the system could likely be improved further by adding money management conditions (such as a stop-loss), or by adding more technical conditions not considered in the scope of this article.
█ CALCULATIONS
The entry and exit rules that constitute the trading system are defined below. The critical values of VIX, ATR and VFI (specified below) used in the calculations were determined by optimization for a daily chart of the SPY ETF . By default, the strategy only allows long entries. However, the script offers the possibility to initiate short entries upon exiting long trades through the "Long Only" toggle in the script's inputs.
Long Entry Rules
• Seasonal: The seasonal trade is initiated on the first business day October at the open.
• Volatility: In case of high volatility, that is if the VIX is above 60% or the 15-day ATR was above 90% over the past 25 days, the seasonal trade is deferred until later in the month or year, when the volatility subsides.
Exit/Short Entry Rules
• Seasonal: The exit/short signal is triggered on the first business day of August at the open.
• Volatility: The exit/short signal is triggered if VIX is above 120 % (i.e. 2 times the corresponding threshold parameter).
• Money flow (VFI): The exit/short signal is triggered if the VFI crosses under a critical value (-20) while its 10-day moving average is pointing down.
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Moving Average Suite + VWAP + TICKThis indicator combines some of the commonly used moving averages, VWAP, and TICK sentiment, all of which are useful for all types of trading
By default, this indicator includes:
- 21/50/100/200 period smoothed simple moving average
- great for determining trends
- also act as support / resistance line for price
- 9 period exponential moving average
- fast trend / direction indicator
- Volume Weighted Average Price
- no explanation required
- $TICK sentiment as background fill
- overall market sentiment and direction
- +/- 500 levels are colored green/red and are usually indication of institutional order flow --> critical for trading indexes such as SPY or QQQ
- deep green/red background indicates +/-1000 on the $TICK, which are usually associated with overbought or oversold
tickerTracker MFI OscillatorDid you ever want to have a neat indicator window in line with your chart showing a different ticker? tickerTracker is a Money Flow Index (MFI) oscillator. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical oscillator that uses price and volume for identifying overbought or oversold conditions in an asset. More or less, everything is connected in the market. The tickerTracker lets you see what is happening with another ticker that you have connected a correlation between them. For my example here, I'm using COIN in the main chart with the tickerTracker displaying BTC, QQQ and COIN Money Flow Index (MFI) in its window. As the end user, you can customize the colors, the length input and the ticker. Like any other indicator, the shorter length input, the more quickly responsive and the longer the length input, the smoother curve print.
Default Values:
MFI Length = 13
Chart ticker = white
SPY = white
QQQ = blue
IWM = yellow
DIA = orange
BTC/USD = yellow
ETH/USD = green
SOL/USD = purple
ADA/USD = red
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
SPXL Futures Strategy- Buy/sell signals for SPXL using futures momentum.
- For real-time signals at close, use ES1! on 2 minute chart and sign up for real-time cboe mini futures data feed in tradingview.
- All buys and sells are at near close of US RTH market at 4pm.
- Best to use the script with other breadth signals to decide on trading strategy.
- Script is compatible with SPY, SPXL, RSP, QQQ, TQQQ and many other SPX correlated tickers, however it’s primarily developed for SPX.
Litt Internals ProThe Litt Internal Pro is based on the four major U.S. Equity Indexes. This is to not be used for any other markets. If you need more information on any of the indexes, you can google or watch YouTube videos on what they are. Typically if we are looking for to be long we want to see all four of the indexes green and have buy ratings. If we are looking to be short we want to see all four of the indexes red and have sell ratings. If you see Overbought or Oversold ratings it may be best to wait for a pullback to get long or not take the trade at all.
For the stocks that you trade, you should know what index they are in. The reason for this is that you can still take trades if not all four indexes are aligned the same color. For example, maybe small caps (IWM) are on a hot streak and seeing buying momentum from institutions meanwhile tech (QQQ), is being sold. If you held a long in a company that is in IWM then you could be more comfortable holding your long position. Meanwhile, if you held a long position in a stock that is in QQQ then you might want to cut your loss or take profit. There are multiple different use cases for this indicator so it is best to look for outside resources on more information on the indexes and what stocks are in each index. This can be a very powerful tool to see sector rotation by hedge funds and institutions.
Trend Volatility Tops and Bottoms
Big Picture:
Overall what this script try's to capture is bounces off of moving trend lines.
What you will see when using this script
one Green line, one red line, two gray lines and circles in colors blue, green, red, and purple.
RED AND GREEN LINES:
There are two trend lines, an upper and a lower line that are 1 to 2 standard deviations from the linear regression line formed by the closing price for a look back period. The green is the distance from the close price and the lower line. The red is the list from the close and the upper line. (you don't see the lower and upper lines, but yo do see the green and red lines)
The goal is too easily see when price is approaching those support and resistance levels.
GRAY LINES:
GRAY lines are a form of volatility metric. GRAYS represent the distance from the RED and GREEN lines talked about above. low volatility mean the two GRAY lines will be close and times of high volatility will be father apart.
COLORED CIRCLES:
the color circles represent possible bounce zones, when price is high or low for for a given time period.
PURPLE is caution that there could be a possible price drop
RED is a critical zone for rejection and price drop
BLUE is caution that there could be a possible price increase
GREEN is a critical zone for bounce and price increase
how its used
feel free to play around and Try new things but, how its intended to be used is on 4hr time Frame looking for longer term trends on assets that tend to be less volatile on average.
settings
some settings:
buy deviation, this will say how many standard deviations do you want the lower bounce line to be from the linear regression line
sell deviation, this will say how many standard deviations do you want the upper bounce line to be from the linear regression line
dist to zero buy: how close dose the price has to be to put out a possible bounce.
Recap
-red and purple = possible upcoming price drop... red is more critical than purple
-green and blue = possible upcoming price increase... green is more critical than blue
-use on less volatile assents and on 4hr timeframe
good luck!
PickingupFromBottom StrategyPickingupFromBottom Strategy is variation of my earlier strategy HiLoBand
This strategy uses lowest lows of 200 and ema of that with length 7. Lets call this ema200Lows line
wait for price to close below ema200Lows line
Then using camarilla pivot points , wait for camariall centerpoint (actally ema 9 of that ) crossing up the ema200Lows line.
When this condition is met background color is changed to green (visual alert)
and BUY Long is taken
Exit
When the price crosses below the Camarilla R4 line or Camarilla S3 line
Tested with SPY and QQQ on 30 mins chart.
Warning
This strategy is published for educational purposes only.
Market Breadth EMAs V2Second version of Market Breadth EMAs for $SPY. Getting a little more complicated than V1 but removed noise.
Key:
Green line = % of stocks above their 20-period moving average, the "twitch line"
Red line = % of stocks above their 200-period moving average, the "long term trend"
White line = weighted average of the % of stocks above the 20/50/100/200 averages, the "general trend." Captures bursts that the 200 misses, and is more trustworthy than the 20.
Background colors = limits of the red/green/white where reversals have happened historically. The darker the color, the stronger the signal.
Histogram = the change in the white line over time, for different time periods: 1/4/10/20, the "trend strength/confidence." i.e. If the white line "General Trend" has been drifting lower for a month but started increasing the past 2 days, you might have 3 red histograms and 1 green one.
Techniques:
If the green, red, or white line is above 50%, then more than half the stocks are above that average. So, if they're in the top half, bullish market. Bottom half, bearish market.
If the green line is above the red, market has rising/bullish momentum. If red is above green, market has falling/bearish momentum.
If the white line is rising, bullish momentum. If it's falling, bearish momentum.
If the histograms are all green, there is strong momentum in that direction. The % of stocks above their important averages has been increasing each day for both the short term and long term.
If the histograms go from all green to a mix of green and red, be on the lookout for a reversal from one of the background levels. Usually initiates from the 20 (green line) first.
If price dips without the histogram changing, HODL.
Dip BuyerThis was created for a friend and only has SPY in mind.
This indicator gives signals based on the previous All-Time High
Default values are
Watch Signal: 4% from ATH
Buy Signal: 5% from ATH
Stop Loss: 13% from ATH
All values are configurable
Market Breadth EMAsThis is the combined market breadth tickers: S5TW, S5FI, S5OH, and S5TH representing the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA respectively. The colors go from green (20) to red (200) because if 20 crosses above the 200, the market's bullish, and if the 20 crosses below the 200, the market is bearish. So if green is on top = bull market. If red is on top = bear market. In general the market sentiment is whichever color is highest up.
The background is colored in depending on a few historical extremes in the 200. The darker the color the more significant the buy/sell signal. These can be adjusted by changing the hline's in the code.
Stock vs Index vs Vix (Adjusted)
Usually stocks move with Indexes and against Vix, so with this script you can compare and see how strong is the price movement of an asset.
Try to find what Index (e.g. SPY, QQQ, IWM) and Vix (e.g. VIX, VXN, RVX) fits better for selected symbol.
If price moving in the upper channel = price movement is strong.
If price moving in the lower channel = price movement is weak.
If price is stronger than Index and Vix = good sign.
If price is weaker than Index and Vix = bad sign.
Strong support and resistance lines are at 66.6 and 33.3
Disclaimer:
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Smoothed Waddah ATR~~~All Credit to LAZY BEAR for posting the original Script which is an old MT4 indicator.~~~~
No this system does not repaint... if it does let me know. Either the code is wrong or you are using a repainting chart such as renko candles.
*PURPOSE*
This Is an "Enhanced or Smoothed" version of the script that captures the heiken-ashi closing price as its main calculation variable. While using normal bar or line charts. Enhancements integrate trade filters to reduce false signals.
*WHAT TYPE OF TRADING STRATEGY IS THIS?*
This is a Long Only, Trend Trading System. Is intended to be applied to Charts/Timeframes that produce sustainable trends for which ever asset you are trading.
*NOTE OF ADVICE REGARDING SETTINGS*
Settings can be tweaked but I have found that best results come with the given settings. If a chart is too choppy to trade this indicator successfully, it is advised not to change the settings but either find a different timeframe or different asset to apply this strategy to.
TLDR
Indicator measures the change of the MacD (difference between MAC D of given EMA's) and compares it to the difference between the Upper and Lower Bollinger bands. Green bar over trigger line= entry. Red bar over trigger line = close.
*SETTINGS AND INPUTS*
-MacD of HeikenAshi chart (will always be of the Heikenashi chart even when applied to different chart type)
sensitivity = input(150, title='Sensitivity') =range should be (125-175)multiplier so that MacD can be compared to BB
fastLength = input(20, title='MacD FastEMA Length')
slowLength = input(40, title='MacD SlowEMA Length')
-Bollinger Band of currently used price chart type
channelLength = input(20, title='BB Channel Length')
mult = input(1.5, title='BB Stdev Multiplier')
-14 Period RSI Trade Filter (set to 0 to Disable)
RSI14filter = input(40, title='RSI Value trade filter') =only gives entry when RSI is higher than given value
*ABSTRACT & CONCEPT*
TLDR - Indicator measures the change of the MacD (difference between MAC D of given EMA's) and compares it to the difference between the Upper and Lower Bollinger bands. Green bar over trigger line= entry. Red bar over trigger line = close.
Indicator plots -
Bars are the change in the MAC D and the indicator line is the difference in the BB.
When Bars are higher than the indicator line then it is considered a trend "Explosion"
Green Bars are Trend Explosion to the upside, Red Bars are Trend explosion to the downside.
GENERAL DETAIL-
the core calculation is measuring the change in MacD of current candle compared to the MacD of two previous candles.
This value is multiplied by the sensitivy so it can be compared to the change in Bollinger Band Width.
if the MACD change is positive then you get a green/lime bar for that value. If the MacDchange is negative you get a red/orange bar for that value.
and are determined by whether the actual change is increasing in that direction or decreasing. (bars getting taller or bars getting shorter)
Entry signal for long is A positive change in MACD difference (Green bar) that is greater than the change of the bollinger band (orange signal line) AND if the RSI value is above your filter.
Close signal or Trend Stop Warning Signal is given when a Negative MacD Difference (red bar) is greater than the change of the bollinger band (orange Line)
*CONSIDERATIONS AND THOUGHTS*
I have over 150 iterations of this indicator and this is the most consistent and best version of settings and filters I was able to generate. I built this indicator specifically for 3 charts. SPY monthly, QQQ monthly, BTC 3 Day. However this indicator works well on any long term bullish chart. (tech stocks are great) .
Trend trading systems are intended to be homerun hitting, plunge protecting indicators that allow for long legs and expanding volatility. This indicator does this as the trigger line is Dynamic with the expansion and contraction of the bollinger band.
I do not take every signal specifically not the close signals. Instead they more like warnings in ultra bullish environments.
If i had to pair this indicator with any other filter than the RSI, it would be a long term moving average i.e. the 50 week or equivalent for your chart. signals above rising moving averages means that you are trading with an upward trending market.
Hope this helps. Happy trades.
-SnarkyPuppy
8,21,40 EMA by gmubirdBest used with 1 min time frame. On a solid trend usually the candles with stay above the 8 ema while retesting it every 5-15 bars. If it breaks the 8 ema then look for it to test the 21 ema . The 21 is useful on the 5 min as well because a trending stock with sometimes test the 21 for support and bounce off. However if it breaks the 5min 21 ema it's probably going to break it's short term trend and maybe go side ways or reverse. The 40 ema is mainly useful in the 1min because it helps visualize the 5min 8 ema . This is the main tell for a solidly trending stock/ spy because they love to test this over and over through a trend. Just watch for a break of it because it means a kinda good chance of the end of a trend and a good time to sell.
SROC Crypto Index [upslidedown]The idea for this indicator is simple: Without a crypto index we want to somehow understand ROC across many assets. This will average out data across the top 5 (current) cryptos and provide a benchmark index.
I've recently been looking into momentum strategies more and how to utilize ROC as part of crypto trading. This indicator was born to fill a void as there is no great index like SPY for the crypto world.
Why would you do this? This gives a picture of overall market sentiment and allows you to move stock strategies that use an index to do things like tighten SL, take positions, move to cash, etc. into the cryptocurrency market.
The plotted line is super fat so you can plot individual lines and tell the index from the individual ticker apart. My suggestion is to pair this with a ROC or SROC for individual assets and to develop strategies from there.
Confluence CandlesThis indicator looks for confluence among three indicators (RSI, Stochastic, and MACD), a strategy popularized by Markus Heitkoetter in his book, “The PowerX Strategy: How to Trade Stocks and Options in Only 15 Minutes a Day”, and expands it to look for agreement on up to four symbols.
Each indicator is configurable in the settings, as well as the ability to choose which of the indicators are used.
Default Logic
Green Candles
RSI > 50
Stochastic > 50
MACD Histogram > 0
Red Candles
RSI < 50
Stochastic < 50
MACD Histogram < 0
When multiple symbols are selected, the above needs to be true for all selected symbols.
Example Use Cases
- Setting the indicator to the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ or NQ1!) while trading a stock that is part of that index such as AAPL or TSLA
- Setting the indicator to multiple indexes that tend to move together in order to trade one of them since they tend to make stronger moves when moving together (ex. SPY & QQQ, or ES1! & NQ1!)
- Setting the indicator to Bitcoin while trading a smaller crypto pair that moves as a sympathy play.
Tip
If you have trouble finding the full name for a specific instrument from an exchange such as BTCUSD from Coinbase, you can bring up TradingView’s “Symbol Search” pop-up modal, enter your search term, use the down arrow key on your keyboard to move the focus to the symbol you want, and you will see the full name in the search field such as “COINBASE:BTCUSD”.
Relative Strength (IBD Style)This script is meant to give you a Relative Strength indication of the stock. The goal is to use a similar calculation as used by IBD.
It calculates the performance of the current stock for the last year (most recent quarter is weighted double) and compares it to the performance of a reference index or ticker (default is "SPY").
IBD would give you a value between 0 and 100 because this value is the percentile within all stocks. This is not possible with Pine Script at the moment.
So here you get a Relative Strength value that is >0 if the stock is stronger than the index and <0 if it is weaker than the index.
You can still compare the Relative Strength values between stocks (bigger is better) but you won't know which percentile it is right off the bat.
SQV CrossThis strategy is used to find tickers that do well when SPY and QQQ are up and VIX is down. This uses EMA's on the user defined resolution to define direction of each ticker. Trades are entered upon crossover. EMAs are user defined as well.
M8 BUY @ END OF DAYI've read a couple of times at a couple of different places that most of the move in the market happens after hours, meaning during non-standard trading hours.
After-market and pre-market hours and have seen data presented showing that systems which bought just before end normal market hours and sold the next morning had really amazing resutls.
But when testing those I found the results to be quite poor compared to the pretty graphs I saw, and after much tweaking and trying different ideas I gave up on the idea until I recently decided to try a new position management system.
The System
Buys at the end of the trading day before the close
Sells the next morning at the open IF THE CLOSE OF THE CURRENT BAR IS HIGHER THAN THE ENTRY PRICE
When the current price is not higher, the system will keep the position open until it EITHER gets stops out or closes on profit <<< this is WHY it has the high win %
The system has a high win ratio because it will keep that one position open until it either reaches profit or stops out
This "system" of waiting, and keeping the trade open, actually turned out to be a fantastic way to kind of put the complete trading strategy in a kind of limbo mode. It either waits for market failure or for a profit.
I don't really care about win % at all, almost always high win % ratio systems are just nonsense. What I look for is a PF -- profit factor of 1.5 or above, and a relatively smooth equity curve. -- This has both.
The Stop Loss setting is set @ .95, meaning a 5% stop loss. The Red Line on the chart is the stop loss line.
There is no set profit target -- it simply takes what the market gives.
Non-Repainting System
This does use a 200D Simple Moving Average as a filter. Like a Green Light / Red Light traffic light, the system will only trade long when the price is above its 200 Moving average.
Here is the code: "F1 = close > sma(security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", close ), MarketFilterLen) // HIGH OF OLD DATA -- SO NO REPAINTING"
I use "close ", so that's data from two days ago, it's fixed, confirmed, non-repainting data from the higher timeframe.
-- I would only suggest using this on direction tickers like SPY, QQQ, SSO, TQQQ, market sectors with additional filters in place.
REVERSALS
The systems basically play reversals, it enters when the close is lower than its low of 5 bars ago to enter
It exits when the price is higher than the high of 5 days ago
Uses a 200 MA as a market filter, does not trade when the price is below its 200 Moving average
Uses a 5% stop, as per the red Stop Loss Line -- can be adjusted
The amount of bars it uses to look for reversals is set to 5 by default, but can be adjusted in settings.
Best to use on directional instruments where you know that the long term direction is up, for example:
TQQQ, SSO, SPX, SPY, or sector tickers -- but it would be best to include some more advanced filtering for sectors
Relative StrengthPowerful tool to calculate and display the strength of a security compared to another security.
Some Main purposes are:
- finding new leadership in a market correction
- comparing a market leader with a top competitor
- tracking rotation in the market
.. and so much more!
This tool is highly configurable, you can especially change:
- The reference symbol (SPY, QQQ, BTCUSD, ...)
- The time span to indicate a new High or Low in a certain time-frame
- Factorize your RS-Chart to make it fit to the original chart. (Moves the chart up or down)
- Option to repaint your candles / bars when a new RS High occurs in the given timeframe.
Enjoy and have a great day!
Powerful_Trading
Sector PerformanceThis indicator shows real-time current day performance for 11 ETFs that divide the S&P 500 into eleven sector index funds. The list of different sector ETFs this indicator tracks is as follows -
1. SPY - S&P 500 Index
2. XLC - Communication Services
3. XLY - Consumer Discretionary
4. XLP - Consumer Staples
5. XLE - Energy
6. XLF - Financials
7. XLV - Health Care
8. XLI - Industrials
9. XLB - Materials
10. XLRE - Real Estate
11. XLF - Technology
12. XLU - Utilities
Acknowledgment - This indicator is adapted using the source code from another excellent performance indicator (). Thanks to BeeHolder (www.tradingview.com) for generously sharing the source code.
MarketLeadersSomeone asked me to script this for them and I was surprised at how well it worked
The idea is to check if the top 22 largest cap companies are above or below their MA
By default, the system uses a 20 MA, but you can set it how you want
It checks if the companies including, QQQ (NASDAQ) and SPY are above their MA's and updates the histogram
I've drawn in simple green price break lines to highlight areas of interest
I like this system because it's SO SIMPLE and it uses more data than just look at one stock, it reads the underlying market for the heavy movers.
If the big stocks are doing well, then the market should be doing well too, unless small caps are heavily stalling.
I've also created a strategy based around this and will be posting it soon
Relative Strength ComparisonThis indicator compares the difference in percentage change between two symbols
over a user-specified number of bars.
Default settings will show the difference between the current symbol and the
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over 10 bars. It can be used to determine if the stock is
showing relative strength or weakness compared to the overall market.
