Vix Jump for Selling Puts or Buying CallsThis script aims to identify optimal times when to write Puts for premium, for example using the SPX Weeklies model or simply buying Calls. Not perfect but provides some additional confidence when playing Puts on SPX or the Wheel on SPY.
What it does:
We compare current VIX with a lookback VIX for X% delta. If there is a jump of say 20% over a defined period then that would indicate an opportunity to sell Puts, run a straddle or buy Calls. We use VVIX as a check to stop to many false positives ie VVIX falls of faster than VIX.
You can also use this loosely as a bottom finder.
Cerca negli script per "spy"
SPX Options Days Drop By DeltaSimple script that uses the percentage drop for a particular options delta and DTE to show how often you would be assigned on selling cash secured Puts (or naked Puts). Calculate the estimated percentage drop by finding your desired delta in the options chain and divide that price by the current price. For example a Delta of 10% could be $4055 with a current price of $4161 on a given day. The price differential is 2.5%. We test for how many times a 2.5% drop is encountered for our days to expiry (DTE) as this will be the number of times you would be assigned for that position. The lower the Delta the more the price has to drop ie a Delta of 7% would require a 4% drop etc. Objective is to NEVER be "assigned" and make "fee money" selling premium ie Puts.
SPX options expire 3 times a week as do SPY options
SPX options use the European model
SPX options settle in cash ie you are not assigned
NOTE: If you change your DTE you change your Delta and therefore your percentage differential.
Spread AnalyzerThis script plots the relative performance of the viewed security with respect to a selected benchmark. It can be used to identify assets higher than market average potential.
- The plot above is the relative volume.
- The plot below is the relative performance.
Computation is done by applying stochastic to the spread of the asset's current price/obv value to the benchmark defined by the Part1, 2 and 3.
The benchmark can be a portfolio as well:
Part1 = 4*SPY+2*QQQ
Part2 = XAUUSD+EURUSD
-PS: Each part may contain up to 10 symbols.
- The spread is calculated with the following formula
close / (Part1 + Part2 + Part3)
- Color code is based on the stochastic of macd of the spread.
The inputs:
length : lookback length for the stochastic
lenk : Smoothing factor(K) for stochastic
lend : EMA length(D)
MACD Fast / Slow / Smooth : MACD parameters used to determine the color code
MS CRB/SPYThis indicator tracks the GSCI Commodity Index over the course of the S&P 500. This is used for the fundamental evaluation of ratios of asset classes to each other. The thesis is based on Ray Dalio's quadrant theory: in periods without inflation and with good growth, stock prices rise and commodity prices fall. Conversely, in periods of good growth in an inflationary environment, commodities rise and the rise in equities slows. In particular, there is a change of favorites towards companies that produce cash (i.e. away from growth fantasies). This indicator shows the change in valuations between asset classes and thus allows conclusions to be drawn. This still goes far beyond what has been written, I recommend reading Ray Dalio's works on this.
Max GainThis indicator is meant to be used for coming up with price targets based on past performances of rallies/selloffs.
It shows how much a trade could have made over a 30-day period (or other length of time) in terms of percentage gain.
It also show how much could have been lost in terms of percentage loss
The green plot shows percentage gain from current high to the low of the previous 30 days.
The red plot shows adjusted percentage loss from current low to the high of the previous 30 days.
The 30 can be adjusted and the chart can be used on any time interval.
Note on max loss adjustment:
Max loss percentage is adjusted to be higher to account for the fact that a percentage loss corresponds to a percentage
gain of a greater amount. For instance, a loss of 25% can only be recovered with a percentage gain of 33%.
A 25% loss looking at the chart from left to right would be a 33% gain looking at the same price
action from right to left. In order to compare apples to apples visually and performance wise, max loss percent needs to be adjusted.
The actual max loss percent is calculated and plottable but is not plotted by default because it is less useful and adds clutter.
There is not a great difference between actual max loss and adjusted max loss under everyday market conditions, but
major selloffs (SPY 2020), short squeezes (GME 2021), or other unusually directional moves will display percentage losses
that, in absolute terms, should be considered to be fairly incorrect. The adjusted percentages are good indicators of
relative performance when comparing the magnitudes to the magnitudes of the max gain percentages and
are more visually meaningful than the actual max loss percentages in every situation, so they are plotted despite having incorrect values.
Note on bear markets:
This indicator was designed for bull markets but should it be used in bear markets the indicators that are and aren't
plotted should be swapped using the plot check boxes in the settings dialogue if there is interest in using the loss percentages
for actual loss amount calculations while maintaining visual/performance adjustment
As can been seen in the example chart a gain of 16.3% to 17.1% appears to be a resistance level. This level was recently broken through and the next resistance is 24.5%.
The target is a 24.5% gain from the anticipated 30-day low at the time when the price can be expected to reach a 25.4% gain at the gain rate observed in recent rallies.
Previous rallies are shown for reference with their 30-day periods and corresponding gain percentages which are plotted below.
A selloff is shown in red for reference as well. It was drawn backward to trick the tool into thinking it was a gain, so as to demonstrate logic behind the adjustment.
In reality, this was closer to a 9.5% loss, not 10.55%.
I am still experimenting with this indicator to see how to best use it. Ultimately, it helps me do what I was already doing with the percentage gain tools
but now I can do those analyses in a more systematic manner and with charting. Please feel free to ask questions.
Volatility barometerIt is the indicator that analyzes the behaviour of VIX against CBOE volaility indices (VIX3M, VIX6M and VIX1Y) and VIX futures (next contract to the front one - VX!2). Because VIX is a derivate of SPX, the indicator shall be used on the SPX chart (or equivalent like SPY).
When the readings get above 90 / below 10, it means the market is overbought / oversold in terms of implied volatility. However, it does not mean it will reverse - if the price go higher along with the indicator readings then everything is fine. There is an alarming situation when the SPX is diverging - e.g. the price go higher, the readings lower. It means the SPX does not play in the same team as IVOL anymore and might reverse.
You can use it in conjunction with other implied volatility indicators for stronger signals: the Correlation overlay ( - the indicator that measures the correlation between VVIX and VIX) and VVIX/VIX ratio (it generates a signal the ratio makes 50wk high).
Momentum Rotation Indicator [CC]I have developed this custom indicator very loosely based on the Sector Rotation Model (Giorgos E. Siligardos. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, August 2012) and I called it the MRI because this is essentially a brain scan of any particular stock. This will not only tell you when a stock is breaking out over the market at large but also how the stock is doing compared to its own history. Buy when the line turns green and sell when the line turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you would like to see me publish!
Bollinger DCA v1Simple "benchmark" strategy for ETFs, Stocks and Crypto! Super-easy to implement for beginners, a BTD (buy-the-dip) strategy means that you buy a fixed amount of an ETF / Stock / Crypto every time it falls. For instance, to BTD the S&P 500 ( SPY ), you could purchase $500 USD each time the price falls. Assuming the macro-economic conditions of the underlying country remain favourable, BTD strategies will result in capital gains over a period of many years, e.g. 10 years.
Recommended Chart Settings:
Asset Class: ETF / Stocks / Crypto
Time Frame: H1 (Hourly) / D1 (Daily) / W1 (Weekly) / M1 (Monthly)
Necessary ETF Macro Conditions:
1. Country must have healthy demographics, good ratio of young > old
2. Country population must be increasing
3. Country must be experiencing price-inflation
Necessary Stock Conditions:
1. Growing revenue
2. Growing net income
3. Consistent net margins
4. Higher gross/net profit margin compared to its peers in the industry
5. Growing share holders equity
6. Current ratios > 1
7. Debt to equity ratio (compare to peers )
8. Debt servicing ratio < 30%
9. Wide economic moat
10. Products and services used daily, and will stay relevant for at least 1 decade
Necessary Crypto Conditions:
1. Honest founders
2. Competent technical co-founders
3. Fair or non-existent pre-mine
4. Solid marketing and PR
5. Legitimate use-cases / adoption
Default Robot Settings:
Contribution (USD): $500
When: Dips below lower Bollinger Band
*Robot buys $500 worth of ETF , Stock, Crypto, every time price falls below the lower Bollinger Band
*Equity curve can be seen from the bottom panel*
Risk Warning:
This strategy is low-risk, however it assumes you have a long time horizon of at least 5 to 10 years. The longer your holding-period, the better your returns. The only thing the user has to keep-in-mind are the macro-economic conditions as stated above. If unsure, please stick to ETFs rather than buying individual stocks or cryptocurrencies.
The Box Percent StratHi guys,
Version Zero (more work needed) of an idea I've been meaning to out into a strategy for a while. 🤯
This uses percent boxes🤔 instead of traditional indicators like RSI, MACD etc. 🤫
Takes the first close price of the series and creates a Top Band 10% up, buys if price reaches that level, and puts a stop on a Bot Band, 10% down
When the first trade is in profit by another 10%, it enters another trade and moves the stop of the first trade to breakeven ~ this way it only has one unit of risk at a time
/// Designed for LONG only on Daily, 2D or 3D Charts👌🏻
/// Uses fixed investment risk amount, meaning you're willing to lose that amount per trade
/// Limit buy to not overpay on entries
/// Idea Based on the Darvas system:
/// System only enters trades on strength, when prices equals of exceeds the green line
/// It ads onto the trades, but only *IF* the previous trade is in profit by the UpBoxSize percent size
/// The trailing stop loss is moved up, with the red line
/// A key idea is to only take one unit of risk at a time, meaning for a new add on trade to be taken, the previous trade should be in profit by the same box size as the new new trade's stop loss
/// This will keep adding trades again and again, and they will stop out at the same stop loss
/// Yellow Circles is an MA that filters out choppy areas -- this system only does really well on trending linear markets like: TQQQ, SSO, SPX, SPY
/// Base setting is 10% UpBox Size and 10% DnBox Size: 15% & 15% will be more accurate but fewer signals. 13% profit and 10% stop loss will give a higher risk to reward ratio
VIX Implied Move Bands for ES/Emini futuresThis script uses the close of the VIX on a daily resolution to provide the 'implied move' for the E-mini SP500 futures. While it can be applied to any equity index, it's crucial to know that the VIX is calculated using SPX options, and may not reflect the implied volatility of other indices. The user can adjust the length of the moving average used to calculate the bands, the window of days used to calculate the implied move, and the multiplier that effects the width of the bands.
Coefficient of Variation - EMA and SMA StDevYet another way to try and measure volatility. An alternative to using ATR is Standard Deviation, it can be used to measure volatility or what is also known as risk. SD measures how dispersed or far away the data is from the mean. It's commonly seen in risk management formulas or portfolio diversification formulas. The problem however is that the numbers that ATR and SD give off from one equity might not be relative to others or its own past. For example, SPY can give a large number despite not being as volatile as other equities while others being compared to can have smaller volatility numbers and still be more volatile looking.
A solution I thought of is to use percentages that are relatable to different equities. I found out another name for this idea comes from statistics and is known as coefficient of variation, also known as relative standard deviation. This helps see the volatility as a percentage and not just a number that only relates to what is being seen at the moment. I put in a border line on the zero level to see where zero is at but also to edit in case there is such a thing as a percentage number that can be too high or too low for volatility to be looked at if needed. The average and standard deviation formulas can use either simple moving average or exponential moving average.
Technical checklistNo one indicator is perfect. People always have their favorite indicators and maintain a bias on weighing them purely on psychological reasons other than mathematical. This technical checklist indicator collected 20 common indicators and custom ones to address the issue of a bias weighted decision.
Here, I apply machine learning using a simple sigmoid neuron network with one hidden layer and a single node to avoid artifacts. For the ease of data collection, the indicator matrix is first shown as a heatmap. Once an uptrend signal window is selected manually, an indicator matrix can be recorded in a binary format (i.e., 1 0 0 1 1 0, etc.).
For example, the following indicator matrix was retrieved from the MRNA chart (deciscion: first 5 rows, buying; last 5 rows, no buying):
1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
This matrix is then used as an input to train the machine learning network. With a correlated buying decision matrix as an output:
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
After training, the corrected weight matrix can be applied back to the indicator. And the display mode can be changed from a heatmap into a histogram to reveal buying signals visually.
Usage:
python stock_ml.py mrna_input.txt output.txt
Weight matrix output:
1.37639407
1.67969656
1.0162141
1.3184323
-1.88888442
8.32928588
-5.35777295
3.08739916
3.06464844
0.82986227
-0.53092333
-1.95045383
4.14441698
2.99179435
-0.08379438
1.70379704
0.4173048
-1.51870972
-2.14284707
-2.08513252
Corresponding indicators to the weight matrix:
1. Breakout
2. Reversal
3. Crossover of ema20 and ema60
4. Crossover of ema20 and ema120
5. MACD golden cross
6. Long cycle (MACD crossover 0)
7. RSI not overbought
8. KD not overbought and crossover
9. OBV uptrend
10. Bullish gap
11. High volume
12. Breakout up fractal
13. Rebounce of down fractal
14. Convergence
15. Turbulence reversal
16. Low resistance
17. Bullish trend (blue zone)
18. Bearish trend (red zone)
19. VIX close above ema20
20. SPY close below ema20
PS. It is recommended not to use default settings but to train your weight matrix based on underlying and timeframe.
RSI of MACD Strategy [Long only]This strategy uses the RSI on MACD indicator.
BUY
====
When RSI indicator crossing over 30 or 35 line and price above slow ema
Note: when the position already taken, you may reenter on the purple candle
Partial Exit
==========
Partial profit taking option is available in settings. If this is selected , 1/3 position exited when RSI indicator crossing down 80 line
Close
=====
When RSI indicator crossing below 15
Stop Loss
=========
I havent used hard stop loss in this strategy. Reason is , when price going down , indicator may go up ... so just wanted to ride along with indicator ...
Stop loss mentioned in the settings is used in calculation of how many units can be be purchased based on risk level
Tested with SPY and QQQ ETFs on hourly chart
Warning
=========
For the eductional purposes only ...
This is not a financial advise. please do your own research before taking any trading decission
Yield CurveThis script tracks the U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread and uses inversions of the curve to predict recessions. Whenever a red arrow appear on the yield curve, expect a recession to begin within the next 2 years. Use this signal to either exit the market, or hedge current positions. Whenever a green arrow appears on the yield curve, expect a recession to have nearly ended. Use this signal to enter the market, or cut current hedges against a recession. (I may update this script in the future to better incorporate the effective federal funds rate into exit points, but for now I am satisfied with the results).
Ultimate Oscillator [Long] StrategyAfter I published Short Selling strategy with RSIofUO , I have been working for Long side strategy with same indicator.
but for Long strategy , I have used only the Ultimate Oscillator ... (Not the RSI of UO)
Logic behind this is , when UO goes below oversold level , high chance of possible reversal from there ...
Ultimate Oscialltor values , I have used are 5, 10 and 15
Signal Line 9
Above values are best/defaulted based on testing the strategy multiple symbols
BUY
when UO crossing up buyLine and close > open ( if the cross over is already done , it will wait for 3 candles to see a green bar i.e close>open )
Note when the bar color changes to orange , that means startegy is ready to take LONG position on next bar. But dont jump here , waith for the startegy take the Long Position :-)
Add
Signal appears when there is divergence (marked in yellow color ) ... strategy doesnt add the position , it is ony indicating you could add to existing OR if you missed the BUY signal you could enter here
Partial Exit
when UO crossing down partial exit level
Exit
When UO crossing down sell line
StopLoss
stop loss defaulted to 3%
Please note , I have slightly modified stop loss exit in this strategy.
Even though price hits 3% stoploss , strategy wont wind up the position ...
First , it will check if RSIofUO is above 30 , then it will hold on to the Long position.
Very reason behind this is , price is falling down and UO is going up ... That means there is bullish divergence here .. so it might turn this losing position to profitable one or will exit you with less than 3% loss.
Tested with SPY , QQQ , TSLA on 30mins to 4hrs. Though winning rate is average , net profit is exponential ...
Best working on 30 mins and 1 HR chart for QQQ
Warning
For the eductional purposes only ...
This is not a financial advise , before taking trading decission please do your own research
RSI of Ultimate Oscillator [SHORT Selling] StrategyThis is SHORT selling strategy with Ultimate Oscillator. Instead of drectly using the UO oscillator , I have used RSI on UO (as I did in my previous strategies )
Ultimator Oscillator settings are 5, 10 and 15
RSI of UO setting is 5
Short Sell
==========
I have used moving averages from WilliamAlligator indicator --- settings are 10(Lips), 20(teeth) and 50 (Jaw)
when Lips , Teeth and Jaw are aligned to downtrend (that means Lips < Teeth < Jaw )
Look for RSIofUO dropping below 60 ( setting parameter is Sell Line )
Partial Exit
==========
When RSIofUO crossing up Oversold line i.e 30
Cover Short / Exit
=================
When RSIofUO crosisng above overbought line i.e 70
StopLoss
========
StopLoss defaulted to 3 % , Though it is mentioned in settings , it has not been not used to calcuate and StopLoss Exit... Reason is, when RSIofUO already crossed 60 line (for SHORTING) , then it would take more efforts go up beynd 60. There is saying price takes stairs to climb up but it takes elevator to go down. I have not purely depend on this to exit stop loss, however noticed the trades in this stratgey did not get out with loss higher than when RSIofUO reaching 70 level.
Note
======
Williams Alligator is not drawn from the script. It is manually added to chart for illustration purpose. Please add it when you are using this strategy , whch woould give an idea how the strategy is taking Short Trades.
This is tested on Hourly chart for SPY
Bar color changes to purple when the strategy is in SHORT trade
Warning
========
For the eductional purposes only
Equity Index Overnight FakeoutThis script highlights when price violates the highest high or lowest low within the user's selected lookback period, with the caveat that it occurs during the GLOBEX session. The script is designed to work exclusively with the trading hours for CME and CBOT Equity Index futures. I'm planning to make a more customizable version down the line.
My reasoning behind this very simple script is that the low liquidity and participation of the overnight session creates a tendency for moves at extremes to mean revert. Let me know what you think.
VIX Term StructureThis script allows users to visualize the state of the VIX Futures Term Structure. The user is able to select from five CBOE VIX Indices; VIX, VIX9D, VIX3M, VIX6M, and VIX1Y and the script will color the candles based on the price relationship between selected indices. Visit the CBOE website for more info on how the various VIX indices are calculated.
EMA_cumulativeVolume_crossover[Strategy]This strategy is back test for EMA_cumulativeVolume_crossover
BUY
When ema50 crossover cumulative volume of 100 period
Exit
When ema50 cross down cumulative volume of 100 period
Partial Exit
for the partial profit I have used stopLoss value , but up side. When price is above partial profit and crossing down EMA 50 , exit 1/3 position
Please note when you select this setting, you see spike number of trades, that is because you closing partial number of trades. which increases the winning rate but reduces the total net profit.
Stop Loss
Defaulted to 8%
Added parameter to take LONG or SHORT trades ... on SHORT side not very good results ... you can review it and provide feedback how to improve the performance.
Short Selling
Reverse above BUY conditions
I have tested LONG trades on SPY , QQQ and AAPL on 1 Hour and 30 mins timeframes. for AAPL on DAY timeframe it shows crazy results :-)
Note
For the use of educational purposes only.
RS4r OscillatorOscillator based on Garofallou's RS4r indicator. It has been modified to compare the Relative Strength of any asset against QQQ . SPY , IWM , VGK , EWJ , DBC , GLD , HYG , LQD , TLT ETFs.
Readings above 80 points suggest great relative strength against these ETFs.
EMA_HMA_RSI_StrategyThis strategy BUYS when HMA is below EMA (default setting is 200) and HMA turning to green and RSI 13 is below 70
Adds to existing position when current price is below BUY price and RSI crossing above 30 or 40
Exits the long position when HMA crosses down EMA
when you select Take Profit setting , partial profits are taken when current price > BUY price and RSI 13 crossing down 80
Bar color changes to purple when RSI13 is above 80 (if only in Long position exists)
Tested for SPY QQQ AAPL on hourly and 30 mins chart
Warning : For educational purposes only
Aroon Oscillator StrategyThis is simple strategy based on Aroon Oscillator. I have found that using length 144 or 169 on hourly chart shows excellent results.
Tested on SPY , QQQ and AAPL. Especially when you look at AAPL results , it has 60% profitable in recent trades. ( Dont assume this will be same for other stocks or ETFs)
Aroon Oscillator setting : 169 ( 169 is square root of 13 ... you can also use fib level 144 , which is square root of 12 )
BUY
When Aroon Oscillator crosses above zero line
Add
if Long position is already opened, and current close is less than BUY price and RSI 13 crossing above 30 line
Exit
when Aroon Oscialltor crosses below zero line
Stop Loss
default stop loss has been set to 5%
Note: I have not plotted RSI to the chart. Please include RSI 13 to see how position gets added ... Also add ema 169 to see how the price is aligned with the Aroon Oscillator
Warning
For the educational purposes only
CC - Array-meta Consolidated Interval Display (ACID)This script extends my other two Array examples (which I've also provided to you open source):
The Ticker-centric 5m,15m,45m,1h,4h,1d resolution labels using arrays:
And the more Macro VIX,GLD,TLT,QQQ,SPY,IWM 1d resolution labels using arrays:
This script aims to show how to use min/max/avg with Arrays easily. My next example after this will be exploring the usage of variance versus covariance ratios over different periodic interval resolutions. Currently, this is using the following intervals: 5m,15m,45m,1h,4h,1d. It takes these intervals, calculates the values at those resolutions and puts the absolute min and max from the 5 minute to the 1 day resolutions.
It's more of an example of the power that arrays can hold, as all this truly is right now is a min/max bound calculator. The real gem lies in the avg calculators for multiple resoltuions tied into a single label with readable data. Check out the code and let me know what you think. If you need more examples, the other two scripts I mentioned before are also open source.
Using this on intervals of less than 1D sometimes times out, the way I wrote it is memory intensive, may not work for non-pro users.
Thanks!
NONE OF THIS IS FOREWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS, THIS IS NOT A PREDECTIVE ANALYSIS TOOL. THIS IS A RESEARCH ATTEMPT AT A NOVEL INDICATOR. I am not responsible for outcomes using it.
Please use and give criticisms freely. I am experimenting with combining resolutions and comparing covariance values at different levels right now, so let me know your thoughts! The last indicator will likely not be open source, but may be depending on how complex I get.
