Simple APF Strategy Backtesting [The Quant Science]Simple backtesting strategy for the quantitative indicator Autocorrelation Price Forecasting. This is a Buy & Sell strategy that operates exclusively with long orders. It opens long positions and generates profit based on the future price forecast provided by the indicator. It's particularly suitable for trend-following trading strategies or directional markets with an established trend.
Main functions
1. Cycle Detection: Utilize autocorrelation to identify repetitive market behaviors and cycles.
2. Forecasting for Backtesting: Simulate trades and assess the profitability of various strategies based on future price predictions.
Logic
The strategy works as follow:
Entry Condition: Go long if the hypothetical gain exceeds the threshold gain (configurable by user interface).
Position Management: Sets a take-profit level based on the future price.
Position Sizing: Automatically calculates the order size as a percentage of the equity.
No Stop-Loss: this strategy doesn't includes any stop loss.
Example Use Case
A trader analyzes a dayli period using 7 historical bars for autocorrelation.
Sets a threshold gain of 20 points using a 5% of the equity for each trade.
Evaluates the effectiveness of a long-only strategy in this period to assess its profitability and risk-adjusted performance.
User Interface
Length: Set the length of the data used in the autocorrelation price forecasting model.
Thresold Gain: Minimum value to be considered for opening trades based on future price forecast.
Order Size: percentage size of the equity used for each single trade.
Strategy Limit
This strategy does not use a stop loss. If the price continues to drop and the future price forecast is incorrect, the trader may incur a loss or have their capital locked in the losing trade.
Disclaimer!
This is a simple template. Use the code as a starting point rather than a finished solution. The script does not include important parameters, so use it solely for educational purposes or as a boilerplate.
Cerca negli script per "the strat"
Non-Repainting Renko Emulation Strategy [PineIndicators]Introduction: The Repainting Problem in Renko Strategies
Renko charts are widely used in technical analysis for their ability to filter out market noise and emphasize price trends. Unlike traditional candlestick charts, which are based on fixed time intervals, Renko charts construct bricks only when price moves by a predefined amount. This makes them useful for trend identification while reducing small fluctuations.
However, Renko-based trading strategies often fail in live trading due to a fundamental issue: repainting .
Why Do Renko Strategies Repaint?
Most trading platforms, including TradingView, generate Renko charts retrospectively based on historical price data. This leads to the following issues:
Renko bricks can change or disappear when new data arrives.
Backtesting results do not reflect real market conditions. Strategies may appear highly profitable in backtests because historical data is recalculated with hindsight.
Live trading produces different results than backtesting. Traders cannot know in advance whether a new Renko brick will form until price moves far enough.
Objective of the Renko Emulator
This script simulates Renko behavior on a standard time-based chart without repainting. Instead of using TradingView’s built-in Renko charting, which recalculates past bricks, this approach ensures that once a Renko brick is formed, it remains unchanged .
Key benefits:
No past bricks are recalculated or removed.
Trading strategies can execute reliably without false signals.
Renko-based logic can be applied on a time-based chart.
How the Renko Emulator Works
1. Parameter Configuration & Initialization
The script defines key user inputs and variables:
brickSize : Defines the Renko brick size in price points, adjustable by the user.
renkoPrice : Stores the closing price of the last completed Renko brick.
prevRenkoPrice : Stores the price level of the previous Renko brick.
brickDir : Tracks the direction of Renko bricks (1 = up, -1 = down).
newBrick : A boolean flag that indicates whether a new Renko brick has been formed.
brickStart : Stores the bar index at which the current Renko brick started.
2. Identifying Renko Brick Formation Without Repainting
To ensure that the strategy does not repaint, Renko calculations are performed only on confirmed bars.
The script calculates the difference between the current price and the last Renko brick level.
If the absolute price difference meets or exceeds the brick size, a new Renko brick is formed.
The new Renko price level is updated based on the number of bricks that would fit within the price movement.
The direction (brickDir) is updated , and a flag ( newBrick ) is set to indicate that a new brick has been formed.
3. Visualizing Renko Bricks on a Time-Based Chart
Since TradingView does not support live Renko charts without repainting, the script uses graphical elements to draw Renko-style bricks on a standard chart.
Each time a new Renko brick forms, a colored rectangle (box) is drawn:
Green boxes → Represent bullish Renko bricks.
Red boxes → Represent bearish Renko bricks.
This allows traders to see Renko-like formations on a time-based chart, while ensuring that past bricks do not change.
Trading Strategy Implementation
Since the Renko emulator provides a stable price structure, it is possible to apply a consistent trading strategy that would otherwise fail on a traditional Renko chart.
1. Entry Conditions
A long trade is entered when:
The previous Renko brick was bearish .
The new Renko brick confirms an upward trend .
There is no existing long position .
A short trade is entered when:
The previous Renko brick was bullish .
The new Renko brick confirms a downward trend .
There is no existing short position .
2. Exit Conditions
Trades are closed when a trend reversal is detected:
Long trades are closed when a new bearish brick forms.
Short trades are closed when a new bullish brick forms.
Key Characteristics of This Approach
1. No Historical Recalculation
Once a Renko brick forms, it remains fixed and does not change.
Past price action does not shift based on future data.
2. Trading Strategies Operate Consistently
Since the Renko structure is stable, strategies can execute without unexpected changes in signals.
Live trading results align more closely with backtesting performance.
3. Allows Renko Analysis Without Switching Chart Types
Traders can apply Renko logic without leaving a standard time-based chart.
This enables integration with indicators that normally cannot be used on traditional Renko charts.
Considerations When Using This Strategy
Trade execution may be delayed compared to standard Renko charts. Since new bricks are only confirmed on closed bars, entries may occur slightly later.
Brick size selection is important. A smaller brickSize results in more frequent trades, while a larger brickSize reduces signals.
Conclusion
This Renko Emulation Strategy provides a method for using Renko-based trading strategies on a time-based chart without repainting. By ensuring that bricks do not change once formed, it allows traders to use stable Renko logic while avoiding the issues associated with traditional Renko charts.
This approach enables accurate backtesting and reliable live execution, making it suitable for trend-following and swing trading strategies that rely on Renko price action.
Boilerplate Configurable Strategy [Yosiet]This is a Boilerplate Code!
Hello! First of all, let me introduce myself a little bit. I don't come from the world of finance, but from the world of information and communication technologies (ICT) where we specialize in data processing with the aim of automating it and eliminating all human factors and actors in the processes. You could say that I am an algotrader.
That said, in my journey through trading in recent years I have understood that this world is often shown to be incomplete. All those who want to learn about trading only end up learning a small part of what it really entails, they only seek to learn how to read candlesticks. Therefore, I want to share with the entire community a fraction of what I have really understood it to be.
As a computer scientist, the most important thing is the data, it is the raw material of our work and without data you simply cannot do anything. Entropy is simple: Data in -> Data is transformed -> Data out.
The quality of the outgoing data will directly depend on the incoming data, there is no greater mystery or magic in the process. In trading it is no different, because at the end of the day it is nothing more than data. As we often say, if garbage comes in, garbage comes out.
Most people focus on the results only, on the outgoing data, because in the end we all want the same thing, to make easy money. Very few pay attention to the input data, much less to the process.
Now, I am not here to delude you, because there is no bigger lie than easy money, but I am here to give you a boilerplate code that will help you create strategies where you only have to concentrate on the quality of the incoming data.
To the Point
The code is a strategy boilerplate that applies the technique that you decide to customize for the criteria for opening a position. It already has the other factors involved in trading programmed and automated.
1. The Entry
This section of the boilerplate is the one that each individual must customize according to their needs and knowledge. The code is offered with two simple, well-known strategies to exemplify how the code can be reused for your own benefits.
For the purposes of this post on tradingview, I am going to use the simplest of the known strategies in trading for entries: SMA Crossing
// SMA Cross Settings
maFast = ta.sma(close, length)
maSlow = ta.sma(open, length)
The Strategy Properties for all cases published here:
For Stock TSLA H1 From 01/01/2025 To 02/15/2025
For Crypto XMR-USDT 30m From 01/01/2025 To 02/15/2025
For Forex EUR-USD 5m From 01/01/2025 To 02/15/2025
But the goal of this post is not to sell you a dream, else to show you that the same Entry decision works very well for some and does not for others and with this boilerplate code you only have to think of entries, not exits.
2. Schedules, Days, Sessions
As you know, there are an infinite number of markets that are susceptible to the sessions of each country and the news that they announce during those sessions, so the code already offers parameters so that you can condition the days and hours of operation, filter the best time parameters for a specific market and time frame.
3. Data Filtering
The data offered in trading are numerical series presented in vectors on a time axis where an endless number of mathematical equations can be applied to process them, with matrix calculation and non-linear regressions being the best, in my humble opinion.
4. Read Fundamental Macroeconomic Events, News
The boilerplate has integration with the tradingview SDK to detect when news will occur and offers parameters so that you can enable an exclusion time margin to not operate anything during that time window.
5. Direction and Sense
In my experience I have found the peculiarity that the same algorithm works very well for a market in a time frame, but for the same market in another time frame it is only a waste of time and money. So now you can easily decide if you only want to open LONG, SHORT or both side positions and know how effective your strategy really is.
6. Reading the money, THE PURPOSE OF EVERYTHING
The most important section in trading and the reason why many clients usually hire me as a financial programmer, is reading and controlling the money, because in the end everyone wants to win and no one wants to lose. Now they can easily parameterize how the money should flow and this is the genius of this boilerplate, because it is what will really decide if an algorithm (Indicator: A bunch of math equations) for entries will really leave you good money over time.
7. Managing the Risk, The Ego Destroyer
Many trades, little money. Most traders focus on making money and none of them know about statistics and the few who do know something about it, only focus on the winrate. Well, with this code you can unlock what really matters, the true success criteria to be able to live off of trading: Profit Factor, Sortino Ratio, Sharpe Ratio and most importantly, will you really make money?
8. Managing Emotions
Finally, the main reason why many lose money is because they are very bad at managing their emotions, because with this they will no longer need to do so because the boilerplate has already programmed criteria to chase the price in a position, cut losses and maximize profits.
In short, this is a boilerplate code that already has the data processing and data output ready, you only have to worry about the data input.
“And so the trader learned: the greatest edge was not in predicting the storm, but in building a boat that could not sink.”
DISCLAIMER
This post is intended for programmers and quantitative traders who already have a certain level of knowledge and experience. It is not intended to be financial advice or to sell you any money-making script, if you use it, you do so at your own risk.
Volume Alert with Adaptive Trend - MissouriTimElevate your market analysis with our "Volume Alert with Adaptive Trend" indicator. This powerful tool combines real-time volume spike notifications with a sophisticated adaptive trend channel, providing traders with both immediate and long-term market insights. Customize your trading experience with adjustable volume alert thresholds and trend visualization options.
Features Summary
Volume Alert Features:
Volume Spike Detection:
Alerts you when volume exceeds a user-defined multiplier of the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of volume, helping identify potential market interest or significant price movements.
Visual Notification:
A "Volume Alert" label appears on the chart in a striking purple color (#7300E6) with white text, making high volume bars easily noticeable.
Customizable Sensitivity:
The volume spike threshold is adjustable, allowing you to set how sensitive the alert should be to volume changes, tailored to your trading strategy.
Alerts:
An alert condition is set to notify you when a volume spike occurs, ensuring you don't miss potential trading opportunities.
Adaptive Trend Features
Adaptive Channel:
Visualizes market trends through a dynamic channel that adjusts to price movements, offering insights into trend direction, strength, and potential reversal points.
Lookback Period:
Choose between short-term or long-term trend analysis with a toggle that adjusts the calculation period for the trend channel.
Channel Customization:
Fine-tune the trend channel with options for deviation multiplier, line styles, colors, transparency, and extension preferences to match your visual trading preferences.
Non-Repainting:
The trend lines are updated only on the current bar, ensuring the integrity of historical data for backtesting and strategy development.
Integrated Utility
Combination of Tools: This indicator marries the immediacy of volume alerts with the strategic depth of trend analysis, offering a comprehensive view of market dynamics.
User Customization: With inputs for both volume alerts and trend visualization, the indicator can be tailored to suit various trading styles, from scalping to swing trading.
This indicator ensures you're always in tune with market movements, providing crucial information at a glance to inform your trading decisions.
Arpeet MACDOverview
This strategy is based on the zero-lag version of the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, which captures short-term trends by quickly responding to price changes, enabling high-frequency trading. The strategy uses two moving averages with different periods (fast and slow lines) to construct the MACD indicator and introduces a zero-lag algorithm to eliminate the delay between the indicator and the price, improving the timeliness of signals. Additionally, the crossover of the signal line and the MACD line is used as buy and sell signals, and alerts are set up to help traders seize trading opportunities in a timely manner.
Strategy Principle
Calculate the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or SMA (Simple Moving Average) of the fast line (default 12 periods) and slow line (default 26 periods).
Use the zero-lag algorithm to double-smooth the fast and slow lines, eliminating the delay between the indicator and the price.
The MACD line is formed by the difference between the zero-lag fast line and the zero-lag slow line.
The signal line is formed by the EMA (default 9 periods) or SMA of the MACD line.
The MACD histogram is formed by the difference between the MACD line and the signal line, with blue representing positive values and red representing negative values.
When the MACD line crosses the signal line from below and the crossover point is below the zero axis, a buy signal (blue dot) is generated.
When the MACD line crosses the signal line from above and the crossover point is above the zero axis, a sell signal (red dot) is generated.
The strategy automatically places orders based on the buy and sell signals and triggers corresponding alerts.
Advantage Analysis
The zero-lag algorithm effectively eliminates the delay between the indicator and the price, improving the timeliness and accuracy of signals.
The design of dual moving averages can better capture market trends and adapt to different market environments.
The MACD histogram intuitively reflects the comparison of bullish and bearish forces, assisting in trading decisions.
The automatic order placement and alert functions make it convenient for traders to seize trading opportunities in a timely manner, improving trading efficiency.
Risk Analysis
In volatile markets, frequent crossover signals may lead to overtrading and losses.
Improper parameter settings may cause signal distortion and affect strategy performance.
The strategy relies on historical data for calculations and has poor adaptability to sudden events and black swan events.
Optimization Direction
Introduce trend confirmation indicators, such as ADX, to filter out false signals in volatile markets.
Optimize parameters to find the best combination of fast and slow line periods and signal line periods, improving strategy stability.
Combine other technical indicators or fundamental factors to construct a multi-factor model, improving risk-adjusted returns of the strategy.
Introduce stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms to control single-trade risk.
Summary
The MACD Dual Crossover Zero Lag Trading Strategy achieves high-frequency trading by quickly responding to price changes and capturing short-term trends. The zero-lag algorithm and dual moving average design improve the timeliness and accuracy of signals. The strategy has certain advantages, such as intuitive signals and convenient operation, but also faces risks such as overtrading and parameter sensitivity. In the future, the strategy can be optimized by introducing trend confirmation indicators, parameter optimization, multi-factor models, etc., to improve the robustness and profitability of the strategy.
Gold Pro StrategyHere’s the strategy description in a chat format:
---
**Gold (XAU/USD) Trend-Following Strategy**
This **trend-following strategy** is designed for trading gold (XAU/USD) by combining moving averages, MACD momentum indicators, and RSI filters to capture sustained trends while managing volatility risks. The strategy uses volatility-adjusted stops to protect gains and prevent overexposure during erratic price movements. The aim is to take advantage of trending markets by confirming momentum and ensuring entries are not made at extreme levels.
---
**Key Components**
1. **Trend Identification**
- **50 vs 200 EMA Crossover**
- **Bullish Trend:** 50 EMA crosses above 200 EMA, and the price closes above the 200 EMA
- **Bearish Trend:** 50 EMA crosses below 200 EMA, and the price closes below the 200 EMA
2. **Momentum Confirmation**
- **MACD (12,26,9)**
- **Buy Signal:** MACD line crosses above the signal line
- **Sell Signal:** MACD line crosses below the signal line
- **RSI (14 Period)**
- **Bullish Zone:** RSI between 50-70 to avoid overbought conditions
- **Bearish Zone:** RSI between 30-50 to avoid oversold conditions
3. **Entry Criteria**
- **Long Entry:** Bullish trend, MACD bullish crossover, and RSI between 50-70
- **Short Entry:** Bearish trend, MACD bearish crossover, and RSI between 30-50
4. **Exit & Risk Management**
- **ATR Trailing Stops (14 Period):**
- Initial Stop: 3x ATR from entry price
- Trailing Stop: Adjusts to lock in profits as price moves favorably
- **Position Sizing:** 100% of equity per trade (high-risk strategy)
---
**Key Logic Flow**
1. **Trend Filter:** Use the 50/200 EMA relationship to define the market's direction
2. **Momentum Confirmation:** Confirm trend momentum with MACD crossovers
3. **RSI Validation:** Ensure RSI is within non-extreme ranges before entering trades
4. **Volatility-Based Risk Management:** Use ATR stops to manage market volatility
---
**Visual Cues**
- **Blue Line:** 50 EMA
- **Red Line:** 200 EMA
- **Green Triangles:** Long entry signals
- **Red Triangles:** Short entry signals
---
**Strengths**
- **Clear Trend Focus:** Avoids counter-trend trades
- **RSI Filter:** Prevents entering overbought or oversold conditions
- **ATR Stops:** Adapts to gold’s inherent volatility
- **Simple Rules:** Easy to follow with minimal inputs
---
**Weaknesses & Risks**
- **Infrequent Signals:** 50/200 EMA crossovers are rare
- **Potential Missed Opportunities:** Strict RSI criteria may miss some valid trends
- **Aggressive Position Sizing:** 100% equity allocation can lead to large drawdowns
- **No Profit Targets:** Relies on trailing stops rather than defined exit targets
---
**Performance Profile**
| Metric | Expected Range |
|----------------------|---------------------|
| Annual Trades | 4-8 |
| Win Rate | 55-65% |
| Max Drawdown | 25-35% |
| Profit Factor | 1.8-2.5 |
---
**Optimization Recommendations**
1. **Increase Trade Frequency**
Adjust the EMAs to shorter periods:
- `emaFastLen = input.int(30, "Fast EMA")`
- `emaSlowLen = input.int(150, "Slow EMA")`
2. **Relax RSI Filters**
Adjust the RSI range to:
- `rsiBullish = rsi > 45 and rsi < 75`
- `rsiBearish = rsi < 55 and rsi > 25`
3. **Add Profit Targets**
Introduce a profit target at 1.5% above entry:
```pine
strategy.exit("Long Exit", "Long",
stop=longStopPrice,
profit=close*1.015, // 1.5% target
trail_offset=trailOffset)
```
4. **Reduce Position Sizing**
Risk a smaller percentage per trade:
- `default_qty_value=25`
---
**Best Use Case**
This strategy excels in **strong trending markets** such as gold rallies during economic or geopolitical crises. However, during sideways or choppy market conditions, the strategy might require manual intervention to avoid false signals. Additionally, integrating fundamental analysis—like monitoring USD weakness or geopolitical risks—can enhance its effectiveness.
---
This strategy offers a balanced approach for trading gold, combining trend-following principles with risk management tailored to the volatility of the market.
Failed 2D & Failed 2U BarsI created this indicator to plot a triangle when a candle is either 1) a failed 2 down--the candle breaks the low of the prior candle but closes green (or higher than its opening price) and doesn't break the high of the previous candle; and 2) a failed 2 up--high of the prior candle is broken but the bar is red and does not break the low of the prior candle.
It has alerts which you can set up in the alert system.
I think that this candle is one of the most telling and powerful when it comes to candle analysis.
R.I.P. Rob Smith, Creator of The Strat.
Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM)The Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM) is a systematic trading approach grounded in momentum and volatility analysis, designed to exploit behavioral inefficiencies in the equity markets. It focuses on the NYSE Down Ticks, a metric reflecting the cumulative number of stocks trading at a lower price than their previous trade. As a proxy for market sentiment and selling pressure, this indicator is particularly useful in identifying shifts in investor behavior during periods of heightened uncertainty or volatility (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Theoretical Basis
The DTOM builds on established principles of momentum and mean reversion in financial markets. Momentum strategies, which seek to capitalize on the persistence of price trends, have been shown to deliver significant returns in various asset classes (Carhart, 1997). However, these strategies are also susceptible to periods of drawdown due to sudden reversals. By incorporating volatility as a dynamic component, DTOM adapts to changing market conditions, addressing one of the primary challenges of traditional momentum models (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Sentiment and Volatility as Core Drivers
The NYSE Down Ticks serve as a proxy for short-term negative sentiment. Sudden increases in Down Ticks often signal panic-driven selling, creating potential opportunities for mean reversion. Behavioral finance studies suggest that investor overreaction to negative news can lead to temporary mispricings, which systematic strategies can exploit (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By incorporating a rate-of-change (ROC) oscillator into the model, DTOM tracks the momentum of Down Ticks over a specified lookback period, identifying periods of extreme sentiment.
In addition, the strategy dynamically adjusts entry and exit thresholds based on recent volatility. Research indicates that incorporating volatility into momentum strategies can enhance risk-adjusted returns by improving adaptability to market conditions (Moskowitz, Ooi, & Pedersen, 2012). DTOM uses standard deviations of the ROC as a measure of volatility, allowing thresholds to contract during calm markets and expand during turbulent ones. This approach helps mitigate false signals and aligns with findings that volatility scaling can improve strategy robustness (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Practical Implications
The DTOM framework is particularly well-suited for systematic traders seeking to exploit behavioral inefficiencies while maintaining adaptability to varying market environments. By leveraging sentiment metrics such as the NYSE Down Ticks and combining them with a volatility-adjusted momentum oscillator, the strategy addresses key limitations of traditional trend-following models, such as their lagging nature and susceptibility to reversals in volatile conditions.
References
• Barroso, P., & Santa-Clara, P. (2015). Momentum Has Its Moments. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 111–120.
• Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.
• De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
• Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228–250.
Turn of the Month Strategy on Steroids█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Turn of the Month Strategy on Steroids" is a seasonal mean-reversion strategy designed to capitalize on price movements around the end of the month. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions. This strategy is optimized for use on daily or higher timeframes.
█ WHAT IS THE TURN OF THE MONTH EFFECT?
The Turn of the Month effect refers to the observed tendency of stock prices to rise around the end of the month. This strategy leverages this phenomenon by entering long positions when the price shows signs of a reversal during this period.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The current day of the month is greater than or equal to the specified `dayOfMonth` threshold (default is 25).
The close price is lower than the previous day's close (`close < close `).
The previous day's close is also lower than the close two days ago (`close < close `).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
There is no existing open position (`strategy.position_size == 0`).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the 2-period RSI exceeds 65, indicating overbought conditions. This prompts the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Day of Month: The day of the month threshold for triggering a Buy Signal. Default is 25.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed to exploit seasonal price patterns around the end of the month.
It performs best in markets where the Turn of the Month effect is pronounced.
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the `dayOfMonth` threshold and RSI parameters for specific instruments.
EMA Crossover Strategy with Take Profit and Candle HighlightingStrategy Overview:
This strategy is based on the Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), specifically the EMA 20 and EMA 50. It takes advantage of EMA crossovers to identify potential trend reversals and uses multiple take-profit levels and a stop-loss for risk management.
Key Components:
EMA Crossover Signals:
Buy Signal (Uptrend): A buy signal is generated when the EMA 20 crosses above the EMA 50, signaling the start of a potential uptrend.
Sell Signal (Downtrend): A sell signal is generated when the EMA 20 crosses below the EMA 50, signaling the start of a potential downtrend.
Take Profit Levels:
Once a buy or sell signal is triggered, the strategy calculates multiple take-profit levels based on the range of the previous candle. The user can define multipliers for each take-profit level.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 50% of the previous candle's range above or below the entry price.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 100% of the previous candle's range above or below the entry price.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 150% of the previous candle's range above or below the entry price.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 200% of the previous candle's range above or below the entry price.
These levels are adjusted dynamically based on the previous candle's high and low, so they adapt to changing market conditions.
Stop Loss:
A stop-loss is set to manage risk. The default stop-loss is 3% from the entry price, but this can be adjusted in the settings. The stop-loss is triggered if the price moves against the position by this amount.
Trend Direction Highlighting:
The strategy highlights the bars (candles) with colors:
Green bars indicate an uptrend (when EMA 20 crosses above EMA 50).
Red bars indicate a downtrend (when EMA 20 crosses below EMA 50).
These visual cues help users easily identify the market direction.
Strategy Entries and Exits:
Entries: The strategy enters a long (buy) position when the EMA 20 crosses above the EMA 50 and a short (sell) position when the EMA 20 crosses below the EMA 50.
Exits: The strategy exits the positions at any of the defined take-profit levels or the stop-loss. Multiple exit levels provide opportunities to take profit progressively as the price moves in the favorable direction.
Entry and Exit Conditions in Detail:
Buy Entry Condition (Uptrend):
A buy position is opened when EMA 20 crosses above EMA 50, signaling the start of an uptrend.
The strategy calculates take-profit levels above the entry price based on the previous bar's range (high-low) and the multipliers for TP1, TP2, TP3, and TP4.
Sell Entry Condition (Downtrend):
A sell position is opened when EMA 20 crosses below EMA 50, signaling the start of a downtrend.
The strategy calculates take-profit levels below the entry price, similarly based on the previous bar's range.
Exit Conditions:
Take Profit: The strategy attempts to exit the position at one of the take-profit levels (TP1, TP2, TP3, or TP4). If the price reaches any of these levels, the position is closed.
Stop Loss: The strategy also has a stop-loss set at a default value (3% below the entry for long trades, and 3% above for short trades). The stop-loss helps to protect the position from significant losses.
Backtesting and Performance Metrics:
The strategy can be backtested using TradingView's Strategy Tester. The results will show how the strategy would have performed historically, including key metrics like:
Net Profit
Max Drawdown
Win Rate
Profit Factor
Average Trade Duration
These performance metrics can help users assess the strategy's effectiveness over historical periods and optimize the input parameters (e.g., multipliers, stop-loss level).
Customization:
The strategy allows for the adjustment of several key input values via the settings panel:
Take Profit Multipliers: Users can customize the multipliers for each take-profit level (TP1, TP2, TP3, TP4).
Stop Loss Percentage: The user can also adjust the stop-loss percentage to a custom value.
EMA Periods: The default periods for the EMA 50 and EMA 20 are fixed, but they can be adjusted for different market conditions.
Pros of the Strategy:
EMA Crossover Strategy: A classic and well-known strategy used by traders to identify the start of new trends.
Multiple Take Profit Levels: By taking profits progressively at different levels, the strategy locks in gains as the price moves in favor of the position.
Clear Trend Identification: The use of green and red bars makes it visually easier to follow the market's direction.
Risk Management: The stop-loss and take-profit features help to manage risk and optimize profit-taking.
Cons of the Strategy:
Lagging Indicators: The strategy relies on EMAs, which are lagging indicators. This means that the strategy might enter trades after the trend has already started, leading to missed opportunities or less-than-ideal entry prices.
No Confirmation Indicators: The strategy purely depends on the crossover of two EMAs and does not use other confirming indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD), which might lead to false signals in volatile markets.
How to Use in Real-Time Trading:
Use for Backtesting: Initially, use this strategy in backtest mode to understand how it would have performed historically with your preferred settings.
Paper Trading: Once comfortable, you can use paper trading to test the strategy in real-time market conditions without risking real money.
Live Trading: After testing and optimizing the strategy, you can consider using it for live trading with proper risk management in place (e.g., starting with a small position size and adjusting parameters as needed).
Summary:
This strategy is designed to identify trend reversals using EMA crossovers, with customizable take-profit levels and a stop-loss to manage risk. It's well-suited for traders looking for a systematic way to enter and exit trades based on clear market signals, while also providing flexibility to adjust for different risk profiles and trading styles.
Up Gap Strategy with DelayThis strategy, titled “Up Gap Strategy with Delay,” is based on identifying up gaps in the price action of an asset. A gap is defined as the percentage difference between the current bar’s open price and the previous bar’s close price. The strategy triggers a long position if the gap exceeds a user-defined threshold and includes a delay period before entering the position. After entering, the position is held for a set number of periods before being closed.
Key Features:
1. Gap Threshold: The strategy defines an up gap when the gap size exceeds a specified threshold (in percentage terms). The gap threshold is an input parameter that allows customization based on the user’s preference.
2. Delay Period: After the gap occurs, the strategy waits for a delay period before initiating a long position. This delay can help mitigate any short-term volatility that might occur immediately after the gap.
3. Holding Period: Once the position is entered, it is held for a user-defined number of periods (holdingPeriods). This is to capture the potential post-gap trend continuation, as gaps often indicate strong directional momentum.
4. Gap Plotting: The strategy visually plots up gaps on the chart by placing a green label beneath the bar where the gap condition is met. Additionally, the background color turns green to highlight up-gap occurrences.
5. Exit Condition: The position is exited after the defined holding period. The strategy ensures that the position is closed after this time, regardless of whether the price is in profit or loss.
Scientific Background:
The gap theory has been widely studied in financial literature and is based on the premise that gaps in price often represent areas of significant support or resistance. According to research by Kaufman (2002), gaps in price action can be indicators of future price direction, particularly when they occur after a period of consolidation or a trend reversal. Moreover, Gaps and their Implications in Technical Analysis (Murphy, 1999) highlights that gaps can reflect imbalances between supply and demand, leading to high momentum and potential price continuation or reversal.
In trading strategies, utilizing gaps with specific conditions, such as delay and holding periods, can enhance the ability to capture significant price moves. The strategy’s delay period helps avoid potential market noise immediately after the gap, while the holding period seeks to capitalize on the price continuation that often follows gap formation.
This methodology aligns with momentum-based strategies, which rely on the persistence of trends in financial markets. Several studies, including Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), have documented the existence of momentum effects in stock prices, where past price movements can be predictive of future returns.
Conclusion:
This strategy incorporates gap detection and momentum principles, supported by empirical research in technical analysis, to attempt to capitalize on price movements following significant gaps. By waiting for a delay period and holding the position for a specified time, it aims to mitigate the risk associated with early volatility while maximizing the potential for sustained price moves.
Moving Average Crossover Strategy with Take Profit and Stop LossThe Moving Average Crossover Strategy is a popular trading technique that utilizes two moving averages (MAs) of different periods to identify potential buy and sell signals. By incorporating take profit and stop loss levels, traders can effectively manage their risk while maximizing potential returns. Here’s a detailed explanation of how this strategy works:
Overview of the Moving Average Crossover Strategy
Moving Averages:
A short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day MA) reacts more quickly to price changes, while a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day MA) smooths out price fluctuations over a longer period.
The strategy generates trading signals based on the crossover of these two averages:
Buy Signal: When the short-term MA crosses above the long-term MA (often referred to as a "Golden Cross").
Sell Signal: When the short-term MA crosses below the long-term MA (known as a "Death Cross").
Implementing Take Profit and Stop Loss
1. Setting Take Profit Levels
Definition: A take profit order automatically closes a trade when it reaches a specified profit level.
Strategy:
Determine a realistic profit target based on historical price action, support and resistance levels, or a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1).
For instance, if you enter a buy position at $100, you might set a take profit at $110 if you anticipate that level will act as resistance.
2. Setting Stop Loss Levels
Definition: A stop loss order limits potential losses by closing a trade when the price reaches a specified level.
Strategy:
Place the stop loss just below the most recent swing low for buy orders or above the recent swing high for sell orders.
Alternatively, you can use a percentage-based method (e.g., 2-3% below the entry point) to define your stop loss.
For example, if you enter a buy position at $100 with a stop loss set at $95, your maximum loss would be limited to $5 per share.
Example of Using Moving Average Crossover with Take Profit and Stop Loss
Entry Signal:
You observe that the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA at $100. You enter a buy position.
Setting Take Profit and Stop Loss:
You analyze historical price levels and set your take profit at $110.
You place your stop loss at $95 based on recent swing lows.
Trade Management:
If the price rises to $110, your take profit order is executed, securing your profit.
If the price falls to $95, your stop loss is triggered, limiting your losses.
Trend Trader-Remastered StrategyOfficial Strategy for Trend Trader - Remastered
Indicator: Trend Trader-Remastered (TTR)
Overview:
The Trend Trader-Remastered is a refined and highly sophisticated implementation of the Parabolic SAR designed to create strategic buy and sell entry signals, alongside precision take profit and re-entry signals based on marked Bill Williams (BW) fractals. Built with a deep emphasis on clarity and accuracy, this indicator ensures that only relevant and meaningful signals are generated, eliminating any unnecessary entries or exits.
Please check the indicator details and updates via the link above.
Important Disclosure:
My primary objective is to provide realistic strategies and a code base for the TradingView Community. Therefore, the default settings of the strategy version of the indicator have been set to reflect realistic world trading scenarios and best practices.
Key Features:
Strategy execution date&time range.
Take Profit Reduction Rate: The percentage of progressive reduction on active position size for take profit signals.
Example:
TP Reduce: 10%
Entry Position Size: 100
TP1: 100 - 10 = 90
TP2: 90 - 9 = 81
Re-Entry When Rate: The percentage of position size on initial entry of the signal to determine re-entry.
Example:
RE When: 50%
Entry Position Size: 100
Re-Entry Condition: Active Position Size < 50
Re-Entry Fill Rate: The percentage of position size on initial entry of the signal to be completed.
Example:
RE Fill: 75%
Entry Position Size: 100
Active Position Size: 50
Re-Entry Order Size: 25
Final Active Position Size:75
Important: Even RE When condition is met, the active position size required to drop below RE Fill rate to trigger re-entry order.
Key Points:
'Process Orders on Close' is enabled as Take Profit and Re-Entry signals must be executed on candle close.
'Calculate on Every Tick' is enabled as entry signals are required to be executed within candle time.
'Initial Capital' has been set to 10,000 USD.
'Default Quantity Type' has been set to 'Percent of Equity'.
'Default Quantity' has been set to 10% as the best practice of investing 10% of the assets.
'Currency' has been set to USD.
'Commission Type' has been set to 'Commission Percent'
'Commission Value' has been set to 0.05% to reflect the most realistic results with a common taker fee value.
Smart DCA Strategy (Public)INSPIRATION
While Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a popular and stress-free investment approach, I noticed an opportunity for enhancement. Standard DCA involves buying consistently, regardless of market conditions, which can sometimes mean missing out on optimal investment opportunities. This led me to develop the Smart DCA Strategy – a 'set and forget' method like traditional DCA, but with an intelligent twist to boost its effectiveness.
The goal was to build something more profitable than a standard DCA strategy so it was equally important that this indicator could backtest its own results in an A/B test manner against the regular DCA strategy.
WHY IS IT SMART?
The key to this strategy is its dynamic approach: buying aggressively when the market shows signs of being oversold, and sitting on the sidelines when it's not. This approach aims to optimize entry points, enhancing the potential for better returns while maintaining the simplicity and low stress of DCA.
WHAT THIS STRATEGY IS, AND IS NOT
This is an investment style strategy. It is designed to improve upon the common standard DCA investment strategy. It is therefore NOT a day trading strategy. Feel free to experiment with various timeframes, but it was designed to be used on a daily timeframe and that's how I recommend it to be used.
You may also go months without any buy signals during bull markets, but remember that is exactly the point of the strategy - to keep your buying power on the sidelines until the markets have significantly pulled back. You need to be patient and trust in the historical backtesting you have performed.
HOW IT WORKS
The Smart DCA Strategy leverages a creative approach to using Moving Averages to identify the most opportune moments to buy. A trigger occurs when a daily candle, in its entirety including the high wick, closes below the threshold line or box plotted on the chart. The indicator is designed to facilitate both backtesting and live trading.
HOW TO USE
Settings:
The input parameters for tuning have been intentionally simplified in an effort to prevent users falling into the overfitting trap.
The main control is the Buying strictness scale setting. Setting this to a lower value will provide more buying days (less strict) while higher values mean less buying days (more strict). In my testing I've found level 9 to provide good all round results.
Validation days is a setting to prevent triggering entries until the asset has spent a given number of days (candles) in the overbought state. Increasing this makes entries stricter. I've found 0 to give the best results across most assets.
In the backtest settings you can also configure how much to buy for each day an entry triggers. Blind buy size is the amount you would buy every day in a standard DCA strategy. Smart buy size is the amount you would buy each day a Smart DCA entry is triggered.
You can also experiment with backtesting your strategy over different historical datasets by using the Start date and End date settings. The results table will not calculate for any trades outside what you've set in the date range settings.
Backtesting:
When backtesting you should use the results table on the top right to tune and optimise the results of your strategy. As with all backtests, be careful to avoid overfitting the parameters. It's better to have a setup which works well across many currencies and historical periods than a setup which is excellent on one dataset but bad on most others. This gives a much higher probability that it will be effective when you move to live trading.
The results table provides a clear visual representation as to which strategy, standard or smart, is more profitable for the given dataset. You will notice the columns are dynamically coloured red and green. Their colour changes based on which strategy is more profitable in the A/B style backtest - green wins, red loses. The key metrics to focus on are GOA (Gain on Account) and Avg Cost.
Live Trading:
After you've finished backtesting you can proceed with configuring your alerts for live trading.
But first, you need to estimate the amount you should buy on each Smart DCA entry. We can use the Total invested row in the results table to calculate this. Assuming we're looking to trade on
BTCUSD
Decide how much USD you would spend each day to buy BTC if you were using a standard DCA strategy. Lets say that is $5 per day
Enter that USD amount in the Blind buy size settings box
Check the Blind Buy column in the results table. If we set the backtest date range to the last 10 years, we would expect the amount spent on blind buys over 10 years to be $18,250 given $5 each day
Next we need to tweak the value of the Smart buy size parameter in setting to get it as close as we can to the Total Invested amount for Blind Buy
By following this approach it means we will invest roughly the same amount into our Smart DCA strategy as we would have into a standard DCA strategy over any given time period.
After you have calculated the Smart buy size, you can go ahead and set up alerts on Smart DCA buy triggers.
BOT AUTOMATION
In an effort to maintain the 'set and forget' stress-free benefits of a standard DCA strategy, I have set my personal Smart DCA Strategy up to be automated. The bot runs on AWS and I have a fully functional project for the bot on my GitHub account. Just reach out if you would like me to point you towards it. You can also hook this into any other 3rd party trade automation system of your choice using the pre-configured alerts within the indicator.
PLANNED FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Currently this is purely an accumulation strategy. It does not have any sell signals right now but I have ideas on how I will build upon it to incorporate an algorithm for selling. The strategy should gradually offload profits in bull markets which generates more USD which gives more buying power to rinse and repeat the same process in the next cycle only with a bigger starting capital. Watch this space!
MARKETS
Crypto:
This strategy has been specifically built to work on the crypto markets. It has been developed, backtested and tuned against crypto markets and I personally only run it on crypto markets to accumulate more of the coins I believe in for the long term. In the section below I will provide some backtest results from some of the top crypto assets.
Stocks:
I've found it is generally more profitable than a standard DCA strategy on the majority of stocks, however the results proved to be a lot more impressive on crypto. This is mainly due to the volatility and cycles found in crypto markets. The strategy makes its profits from capitalising on pullbacks in price. Good stocks on the other hand tend to move up and to the right with less significant pullbacks, therefore giving this strategy less opportunity to flourish.
Forex:
As this is an accumulation style investment strategy, I do not recommend that you use it to trade Forex.
For more info about this strategy including backtest results, please see the full description on the invite only version of this strategy named "Smart DCA Strategy"
MACD Aggressive Scalp SimpleComment on the Script
Purpose and Structure:
The script is a scalping strategy based on the MACD indicator combined with EMA (50) as a trend filter.
It uses the MACD histogram's crossover/crossunder of zero to trigger entries and exits, allowing the trader to capitalize on short-term momentum shifts.
The use of strategy.close ensures that positions are closed when specified conditions are met, although adjustments were made to align with Pine Script version 6.
Strengths:
Simplicity and Clarity: The logic is straightforward and focuses on essential scalping principles (momentum-based entries and exits).
Visual Indicators: The plotted MACD line, signal line, and histogram columns provide clear visual feedback for the strategy's operation.
Trend Confirmation: Incorporating the EMA(50) as a trend filter helps avoid trades that go against the prevailing trend, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
Dynamic Exit Conditions: The conditional logic for closing positions based on weakening momentum (via MACD histogram change) is a good way to protect profits or minimize losses.
Potential Improvements:
Parameter Inputs:
Make the MACD (12, 26, 9) and EMA(50) values adjustable by the user through input statements for better customization during backtesting.
Example:
pine
Copy code
macdFast = input(12, title="MACD Fast Length")
macdSlow = input(26, title="MACD Slow Length")
macdSignal = input(9, title="MACD Signal Line Length")
emaLength = input(50, title="EMA Length")
Stop Loss and Take Profit:
The strategy currently lacks explicit stop-loss or take-profit levels, which are critical in a scalping strategy to manage risk and lock in profits.
ATR-based or fixed-percentage exits could be added for better control.
Position Size and Risk Management:
While the script uses 50% of equity per trade, additional options (e.g., fixed position sizes or risk-adjusted sizes) would be beneficial for flexibility.
Avoid Overlapping Signals:
Add logic to prevent overlapping signals (e.g., opening a new position immediately after closing one on the same bar).
Backtesting Optimization:
Consider adding labels or markers (label.new or plotshape) to visualize entry and exit points on the chart for better debugging and analysis.
The inclusion of performance metrics like max drawdown, Sharpe ratio, or profit factor would help assess the strategy's robustness during backtesting.
Compatibility with Live Trading:
The strategy could be further enhanced with alert conditions using alertcondition to notify the trader of buy/sell signals in real-time.
DCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger BandDCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Band
The Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands is a sophisticated trading strategy that combines the principles of DCA, mean reversion, and technical analysis using Bollinger Bands. This strategy aims to capitalize on market corrections by systematically entering positions during periods of price pullbacks and reversion to the mean.
Key Concepts and Principles
1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
DCA is an investment strategy that involves regularly purchasing a fixed dollar amount of an asset, regardless of its price. The idea behind DCA is that by spreading out investments over time, the impact of market volatility is reduced, and investors can avoid making large investments at inopportune times. The strategy reduces the risk of buying all at once during a market high and can smooth out the cost of purchasing assets over time.
In the context of this strategy, the Investment Amount (USD) is set by the user and represents the amount of capital to be invested in each buy order. The strategy executes buy orders whenever the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, which suggests a potential market correction or pullback. This is an effective way to average the entry price and avoid the emotional pitfalls of trying to time the market perfectly.
2. Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is a concept that suggests prices will tend to return to their historical average or mean over time. In this strategy, mean reversion is implemented using the Bollinger Bands, which are based on a moving average and standard deviation. The lower band is considered a potential buy signal when the price crosses below it, indicating that the asset has become oversold or underpriced relative to its historical average. This triggers the DCA buy order.
Mean reversion strategies are popular because they exploit the natural tendency of prices to revert to their mean after experiencing extreme deviations, such as during market corrections or panic selling.
3. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that consists of three lines:
Middle Band: The moving average, usually a 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in this strategy. This serves as the "mean" or baseline.
Upper Band: The middle band plus a certain number of standard deviations (multiplier). The upper band is used to identify overbought conditions.
Lower Band: The middle band minus a certain number of standard deviations (multiplier). The lower band is used to identify oversold conditions.
In this strategy, the Bollinger Bands are used to identify potential entry points for DCA trades. When the price crosses below the lower band, this is seen as a potential opportunity for mean reversion, suggesting that the asset may be oversold and could reverse back toward the middle band (the EMA). Conversely, when the price crosses above the upper band, it indicates overbought conditions and signals potential market exhaustion.
4. Time-Based Entry and Exit
The strategy has specific entry and exit points defined by time parameters:
Open Date: The date when the strategy begins opening positions.
Close Date: The date when all positions are closed.
This time-bound approach ensures that the strategy is active only during a specified window, which can be useful for testing specific market conditions or focusing on a particular time frame.
5. Position Sizing
Position sizing is determined by the Investment Amount (USD), which is the fixed amount to be invested in each buy order. The quantity of the asset to be purchased is calculated by dividing the investment amount by the current price of the asset (investment_amount / close). This ensures that the amount invested remains constant despite fluctuations in the asset's price.
6. Closing All Positions
The strategy includes an exit rule that closes all positions once the specified close date is reached. This allows for controlled exits and limits the exposure to market fluctuations beyond the strategy's timeframe.
7. Background Color Based on Price Relative to Bollinger Bands
The script uses the background color of the chart to provide visual feedback about the price's relationship with the Bollinger Bands:
Red background indicates the price is above the upper band, signaling overbought conditions.
Green background indicates the price is below the lower band, signaling oversold conditions.
This provides an easy-to-interpret visual cue for traders to assess the current market environment.
Postscript: Configuring Initial Capital for Backtesting
To ensure the backtest results align with the actual investment scenario, users must adjust the Initial Capital in the TradingView strategy properties. This is done by calculating the Initial Capital as the product of the Total Closed Trades and the Investment Amount (USD). For instance:
If the user is investing 100 USD per trade and has 10 closed trades, the Initial Capital should be set to 1,000 USD.
Similarly, if the user is investing 200 USD per trade and has 24 closed trades, the Initial Capital should be set to 4,800 USD.
This adjustment ensures that the backtesting results reflect the actual capital deployed in the strategy and provides an accurate representation of potential gains and losses.
Conclusion
The DCA strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands is a systematic approach to investing that leverages the power of regular investments and technical analysis to reduce market timing risks. By combining DCA with the insights offered by Bollinger Bands and mean reversion, this strategy offers a structured way to navigate volatile markets while targeting favorable entry points. The clear entry and exit rules, coupled with time-based constraints, make it a robust and disciplined approach to long-term investing.
Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 TV, I present you HTES aka Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing, designed by Holt & Winters in the US, assembled by me in Saint P. I apply exponential smoothing individually to the data itself, then to residuals from the fitted values, and lastly to one-point forecast (OPF) errors, hence 'hybrid'. At the same time, the method is a closed-form solution and purely online, no need to make any recalculations & optimize anything, so the method is O(1).
^^ historical OPFs and one-point forecasting interval plotted instead of fitted values and prediction interval
Before the How-to, first let me tell you some non-obvious things about Triple Exponential smoothing (and about Exponential Smoothing in general) that not many catch. Expo smoothing seems very straightforward and obvious, but if you look deeper...
1) The whole point of exponential smoothing is its incremental/online nature, and its O(1) algorithm complexity, making it dope for high-frequency streaming data that is also univariate and has no weights. Consequently:
- Any hybrid models that involve expo smoothing and any type of ML models like gradient boosting applied to residuals rarely make much sense business-wise: if you have resources to boost the residuals, you prolly have resources to use something instead of expo smoothing;
- It also concerns the fashion of using optimizers to pick smoothing parameters; honestly, if you use this approach, you have to retrain on each datapoint, which is crazy in a streaming context. If you're not in a streaming context, why expo smoothing? What makes more sense is either picking smoothing parameters once, guided by exogenous info, or using dynamic ones calculated in a minimalistic and elegant way (more on that in further drops).
2) No matter how 'right' you choose the smoothing parameters, all the resulting components (level, trend, seasonal) are not pure; each of them contains a bit of info from the other components, this is just how non-sequential expo smoothing works. You gotta know this if you wanna use expo smoothing to decompose your time series into separate components. The only pure component there, lol, is the residuals;
3) Given what I've just said, treating the level (that does contain trend and seasonal components partially) as the resulting fit is a mistake. The resulting fit is level (l) + trend (b) + seasonal (s). And from this fit, you calculate residuals;
4) The residuals component is not some kind of bad thing; it is simply the component that contains info you consciously decide not to include in your model for whatever reason;
5) Forecasting Errors and Residuals from fitted values are 2 different things. The former are deltas between the forecasts you've made and actual values you've observed, the latter are simply differences between actual datapoints and in-sample fitted values;
6) Residuals are used for in-sample prediction intervals, errors for out-of-sample forecasting intervals;
7) Choosing between single, double, or triple expo smoothing should not be based exclusively on the nature of your data, but on what you need to do as well. For example:
- If you have trending seasonal data and you wanna do forecasting exclusively within the expo smoothing framework, then yes, you need Triple Exponential Smoothing;
- If you wanna use prediction intervals for generating trend-trading signals and you disregard seasonality, then you need single (simple) expo smoothing, even on trending data. Otherwise, the trend component will be included in your model's fitted values → prediction intervals.
8) Kind of not non-obvious, but when you put one smoothing parameter to zero, you basically disregard this component. E.g., in triple expo smoothing, when you put gamma and beta to zero, you basically end up with single exponential smoothing.
^^ data smoothing, beta and gamma zeroed out, forecasting steps = 0
About the implementation
* I use a simple power transform that results in a log transform with lambda = 0 instead of the mainstream-used transformers (if you put lambda on 2 in Box-Cox, you won't get a power of 2 transform)
* Separate set of smoothing parameters for data, residuals, and errors smoothing
* Separate band multipliers for residuals and errors
* Both typical error and typical residuals get multiplied by math.sqrt(math.pi / 2) in order to approach standard deviation so you can ~use Z values and get more or less corresponding probabilities
* In script settings → style, you can switch on/off plotting of many things that get calculated internally:
- You can visualize separate components (just remember they are not pure);
- You can switch off fit and switch on OPF plotting;
- You can plot residuals and their exponentially smoothed typical value to pick the smoothing parameters for both data and residuals;
- Or you might plot errors and play with data smoothing parameters to minimize them (consult SAE aka Sum of Absolute Errors plot);
^^ nuff said
More ideas on how to use the thing
1) Use Double Exponential Smoothing (data gamma = 0) to detrend your time series for further processing (Fourier likes at least weakly stationary data);
2) Put single expo smoothing on your strategy/subaccount equity chart (data alpha = data beta = 0), set prediction interval deviation multiplier to 1, run your strat live on simulator, start executing on real market when equity on simulator hits upper deviation (prediction interval), stop trading if equity hits lower deviation on simulator. Basically, let the strat always run on simulator, but send real orders to a real market when the strat is successful on your simulator;
3) Set up the model to minimize one-point forecasting errors, put error forecasting steps to 1, now you're doing nowcasting;
4) Forecast noisy trending sine waves for fun.
^^ nuff said 2
All Good TV ∞
BacktestLibraryLibrary "BacktestLibrary"
A library providing functions for equity calculation and performance metrics.
since(date, active)
: Calculates the number of candles since a specified date.
Parameters:
date (simple float) : (simple float): The starting date in timestamp format (e.g., input.time(timestamp()))
active (simple bool) : (simple bool): If true, counts the number of candles since the date; if false, returns 0.
Returns: (int): The number of candles since the specified date.
buy_and_hold(r, startDate)
: Calculates the Buy and Hold Equity from a specified date.
Parameters:
r (float) : (series float): Daily returns of the asset (e.g., 0.02 for 2% move).
startDate (simple float) : (simple float): Timestamp of the starting date for the equity calculation.
Returns: (float): Buy and Hold Equity of the asset from the specified date.
equity(sig, threshold, r, startDate, signals)
: Calculates the strategy's equity on a candle-by-candle basis.
Parameters:
sig (float) : (series float): Signal values; positive for long, negative for short.
threshold (simple float) : (simple float): Signal threshold for entering trades.
r (float) : (series float): Daily returns of the asset (e.g., 0.02 for 2% move).
startDate (simple float) : (simple float): Timestamp of the starting date for the equity calculation.
signals (simple string) : (simple string): Type of signals to backtest ("Long & Short", "Long Only", "Short Only").
Returns: (float): Strategy equity on a candle-by-candle basis.
PerformanceMetrics(base, Lookback, startDate)
: Calculates performance metrics of a strategy from a specified date.
Parameters:
base (float) : (series float): Equity values of the strategy or Buy and Hold equity.
Lookback (int) : (series int): Number of periods since the start date; recommended to use the 'since' function.
startDate (simple float) : (simple float): Timestamp of the starting date for the equity calculation.
Returns: (float ): Array of performance metrics.
PerfMetricTable(buy_and_hold, strategy)
: Plots a table comparing performance metrics of Buy and Hold and Strategy equity.
Parameters:
buy_and_hold (array) : (float ): Metrics from the PerformanceMetrics() function for Buy and Hold.
strategy (array) : (float ): Metrics from the PerformanceMetrics() function for the strategy.
Returns: : Table displaying the performance metrics comparison.
SnowdexUtilsLibrary "SnowdexUtils"
the various function that often use when create a strategy trading.
f_backtesting_date(train_start_date, train_end_date, test_date, deploy_date)
Backtesting within a specific window based on deployment and testing dates.
Parameters:
train_start_date (int) : the start date for training the strategy.
train_end_date (int) : the end date for training the strategy.
test_date (bool) : if true, backtests within the period from `train_end_date` to the current time.
deploy_date (bool) : if true, the strategy backtests up to the current time.
Returns: given time falls within the specified window for backtesting.
f_init_ma(ma_type, source, length)
Initializes a moving average based on the specified type.
Parameters:
ma_type (simple string) : the type of moving average (e.g., "RMA", "EMA", "SMA", "WMA").
source (float) : the input series for the moving average calculation.
length (simple int) : the length of the moving average window.
Returns: the calculated moving average value.
f_init_tp(side, entry_price, rr, sl_open_position)
Calculates the target profit based on entry price, risk-reward ratio, and stop loss. The formula is `tp = entry price + (rr * (entry price - stop loss))`.
Parameters:
side (bool) : the trading side (true for long, false for short).
entry_price (float) : the entry price of the position.
rr (float) : the risk-reward ratio.
sl_open_position (float) : the stop loss price for the open position.
Returns: the calculated target profit value.
f_round_up(number, decimals)
Rounds up a number to a specified number of decimals.
Parameters:
number (float)
decimals (int)
Returns: The rounded-up number.
f_get_pip_size()
Calculates the pip size for the current instrument.
Returns: Pip size adjusted for Forex instruments or 1 for others.
f_table_get_position(value)
Maps a string to a table position constant.
Parameters:
value (string) : String representing the desired position (e.g., "Top Right").
Returns: The corresponding position constant or `na` for invalid values.
Breaks and Retests - Free990Strategy Description: "Breaks and Retests - Free990"
The "Breaks and Retests - Free990" strategy is based on identifying breakout and retest opportunities for potential entries in both long and short trades. The idea is to detect price breakouts above resistance levels or below support levels, and subsequently identify retests that confirm the breakout levels. The strategy offers an automated approach to enter trades after a breakout followed by a retest, which serves as a confirmation of trend continuation.
Key Components:
Support and Resistance Detection:
The strategy calculates pivot levels based on historical price movements to define support and resistance areas. A lookback range is used to determine these key levels.
Breakouts and Retests:
The system identifies when a breakout occurs above a resistance level or below a support level.
It then waits for a retest of the previously broken level as confirmation, which is often a better entry opportunity.
Trade Direction Selection:
Users can choose between "Long Only," "Short Only," or "Both" directions for trading based on their market view.
Stop Loss and Trailing Stop:
An initial stop loss is placed at a defined percentage away from the entry.
The trailing stop loss is activated after the position gains a specified percentage in profit.
Long Entry:
A long entry is triggered if the price breaks above a resistance level and subsequently retests that level successfully.
The entry condition checks if the breakout was confirmed and if a retest was valid.
The long entry is only executed if the user-selected direction is either "Long Only" or "Both."
Short Entry:
A short entry is triggered if the price breaks below a support level and subsequently retests that level.
The short entry is only executed if the user-selected direction is either "Short Only" or "Both."
sell_condition checks whether the support has been broken and whether the retest condition is valid.
An initial stop loss is placed when the trade is opened to limit the risk if the trade moves against the position.
The stop loss is calculated based on a user-defined percentage (stop_loss_percent) of the entry price.
pinescript
Copy code
stop_loss_price := strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stop_loss_percent / 100)
For long positions, the stop loss is placed below the entry price.
For short positions, the stop loss is placed above the entry price.
Trailing Stop:
When a position achieves a certain profit threshold (profit_threshold_percent), the trailing stop mechanism is activated.
For long positions, the trailing stop follows the highest price reached, ensuring that some profit is locked in if the price reverses.
For short positions, the trailing stop follows the lowest price reached.
Code Logic for Trailing Stop:
Exit Execution:
The strategy exits the position when the price hits the calculated stop loss level.
This includes both the initial stop loss and the trailing stop that adjusts as the trade progresses.
Code Logic for Exit:
Summary:
Breaks and Retests - Free990 uses support and resistance levels to identify breakouts, followed by retests for confirmation.
Entry Points: Triggered when a breakout is confirmed and a retest occurs, for both long and short trades.
Exit Points:
Initial Stop Loss: Limits risk for both long and short trades.
Trailing Stop Loss: Locks in profits as the price moves in favor of the position.
This strategy aims to capture the momentum after breakouts and minimize losses through effective use of stop loss and trailing stops. It gives the flexibility of selecting trade direction and ensures trades are taken with confirmation through the retest, which helps to reduce false breakouts.
Original Code by @HoanGhetti
Fibonacci Levels Strategy with High/Low Criteria-AYNETThis code represents a TradingView strategy that uses Fibonacci levels in conjunction with high/low price criteria over specified lookback periods to determine buy (long) and sell (short) conditions. Below is an explanation of each main part of the code:
Explanation of Key Sections
User Inputs for Higher Time Frame and Candle Settings
Users can select a higher time frame (timeframe) for analysis and specify whether to use the "Current" or "Last" higher time frame (HTF) candle for calculating Fibonacci levels.
The currentlast setting allows flexibility between using real-time or the most recent closed higher time frame candle.
Lookback Periods for High/Low Criteria
Two lookback periods, lowestLookback and highestLookback, allow users to set the number of bars to consider when finding the lowest and highest prices, respectively.
This determines the criteria for entering trades based on how recent highs or lows compare to current prices.
Fibonacci Levels Configuration
Fibonacci levels (0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, and 100%) are configurable. These are used to calculate price levels between the high and low of the higher time frame candle.
Each level represents a retracement or extension relative to the high/low range of the HTF candle, providing important price levels for decision-making.
HTF Candle Calculation
HTF candle data is calculated based on the higher time frame selected by the user, using the newbar check to reset htfhigh, htflow, and htfopen values.
The values are updated with each new HTF bar or as prices move within the same HTF bar to track the highest high and lowest low accurately.
Set Fibonacci Levels Array
Using the calculated HTF candle's high, low, and open, the Fibonacci levels are computed by interpolating these values according to the user-defined Fibonacci levels.
A fibLevels array stores these computed values.
Plotting Fibonacci Levels
Each Fibonacci level is plotted on the chart with a different color, providing visual indicators for potential support/resistance levels.
High/Low Price Criteria Calculation
The lowest and highest prices over the specified lookback periods (lowestLookback and highestLookback) are calculated and plotted on the chart. These serve as dynamic levels to trigger long or short entries.
Trade Signal Conditions
longCondition: A long (buy) signal is generated when the price crosses above both the lowest price criteria and the 50% Fibonacci level.
shortCondition: A short (sell) signal is generated when the price crosses below both the highest price criteria and the 50% Fibonacci level.
Executing Trades
Based on the longCondition and shortCondition, trades are entered with the strategy.entry() function, using the labels "Long" and "Short" for tracking on the chart.
Strategy Use
This strategy allows traders to utilize Fibonacci retracement levels and recent highs/lows to identify trend continuation or reversal points, potentially providing entry points aligned with larger market structure. Adjusting the lowestLookback and highestLookback along with Fibonacci levels enables a customizable approach to suit different trading styles and market conditions.
PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing StopPTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop Strategy
Overview
The "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" strategy is designed to capitalize on strong bullish market movements by combining the Bollinger Bands indicator with a dynamic trailing stop based on the Average True Range (ATR). This strategy aims to enter long positions during upward breakouts and protect profits through an adaptive exit mechanism.
Key Features
1. Bollinger Bands Indicator
Basis Moving Average Type: Choose from SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, or VWMA for the Bollinger Bands' basis line. Length: Adjustable period for calculating the moving average and standard deviation (default is 20). Standard Deviation Multiplier (StdDev): Determines the width of the bands (default is 2.0). Source: Select the price data used for calculations (default is the closing price).
2. Entry Conditions
The strategy enters a long position when the closing price crosses above the upper Bollinger Band , indicating strong upward momentum.
3. Exit Conditions
Trailing Stop Loss: Implemented using ATR to adjust dynamically with market volatility. ATR Length: Period for calculating ATR (default is 14). ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Determines how closely the trailing stop follows the price (default is 2.0). Close Below Lower Bollinger Band: The strategy exits the long position if the closing price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band .
4. Risk Management
Commission and Slippage: Commission is set at 0.1%; slippage is set to 3. Position Sizing: Uses 100% of equity per trade (adjustable).
5. Date Range Filter
Specify the time period during which the strategy is active. Start Date: January 1, 2018. End Date: December 31, 2069.
Customizable Inputs
BB Length: Adjust the period for Bollinger Bands calculation. BB StdDev: Modify the standard deviation multiplier. Basis MA Type: Select the moving average type. Source: Choose the price data source. Offset: Shift the Bollinger Bands on the chart. ATR Length: Set the period for ATR calculation. ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Adjust the trailing stop sensitivity.
Thought for 1m 7s
Description for the "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" Strategy
PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop Strategy
Overview
The "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" strategy is designed to capitalize on strong bullish market movements by combining the Bollinger Bands indicator with a dynamic trailing stop based on the Average True Range (ATR). This strategy aims to enter long positions during upward breakouts and protect profits through an adaptive exit mechanism.
Key Features
1. Bollinger Bands Indicator
Basis Moving Average Type: Choose from SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, or VWMA for the Bollinger Bands' basis line. Length: Adjustable period for calculating the moving average and standard deviation (default is 20). Standard Deviation Multiplier (StdDev): Determines the width of the bands (default is 2.0). Source: Select the price data used for calculations (default is the closing price).
2. Entry Conditions
The strategy enters a long position when the closing price crosses above the upper Bollinger Band , indicating strong upward momentum.
3. Exit Conditions
Trailing Stop Loss: Implemented using ATR to adjust dynamically with market volatility. ATR Length: Period for calculating ATR (default is 14). ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Determines how closely the trailing stop follows the price (default is 2.0). Close Below Lower Bollinger Band: The strategy exits the long position if the closing price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band .
4. Risk Management
Commission and Slippage: Commission is set at 0.1%; slippage is set to 3. Position Sizing: Uses 100% of equity per trade (adjustable).
5. Date Range Filter
Specify the time period during which the strategy is active. Start Date: January 1, 2018. End Date: December 31, 2069.
Customizable Inputs
BB Length: Adjust the period for Bollinger Bands calculation. BB StdDev: Modify the standard deviation multiplier. Basis MA Type: Select the moving average type. Source: Choose the price data source. Offset: Shift the Bollinger Bands on the chart. ATR Length: Set the period for ATR calculation. ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Adjust the trailing stop sensitivity.
How the Strategy Works
1. Initialization
Calculates Bollinger Bands and ATR based on selected parameters.
2. Entry Logic
Opens a long position when the closing price exceeds the upper Bollinger Band.
3. Exit Logic
Uses a trailing stop loss based on ATR. Exits if the closing price drops below the lower Bollinger Band.
4. Date Filtering
Executes trades only within the specified date range.
Advantages
Adaptive Risk Management: Trailing stop adjusts to market volatility. Simplicity: Clear entry and exit signals. Customizable Parameters: Tailor the strategy to different assets or conditions.
Considerations
Aggressive Position Sizing: Using 100% equity per trade is high-risk. Market Conditions: Best in trending markets; may produce false signals in sideways markets. Backtesting: Always test on historical data before live trading.
Disclaimer
This strategy is intended for educational and informational purposes only. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Assess your financial situation and consult a financial advisor if necessary.
Usage Instructions
1. Apply the Strategy: Add it to your TradingView chart. 2. Configure Inputs: Adjust parameters to suit your style and asset. 3. Analyze Backtest Results: Use the Strategy Tester. 4. Optimize Parameters: Experiment with input values. 5. Risk Management: Evaluate position sizing and incorporate risk controls.
Final Notes
The "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" strategy provides a framework to leverage momentum breakouts while managing risk through adaptive trailing stops. Customize and test thoroughly to align with your trading objectives.
Fibonacci ATR Fusion - Strategy [presentTrading]Open-script again! This time is also an ATR-related strategy. Enjoy! :)
If you have any questions, let me know, and I'll help make this as effective as possible.
█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy is an advanced trading approach that uniquely integrates Fibonacci-based weighted averages with the Average True Range (ATR) to identify and capitalize on significant market trends.
Unlike traditional strategies that rely on single indicators or static parameters, this method combines multiple timeframes and dynamic volatility measurements to enhance precision and adaptability. Additionally, it features a 4-step Take Profit (TP) mechanism, allowing for systematic profit-taking at various levels, which optimizes both risk management and return potential in long and short market positions.
BTCUSD 6hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy utilizes a combination of technical indicators and weighted averages to determine optimal entry and exit points. Below is a breakdown of its key components and operational logic.
🔶 1. Enhanced True Range Calculation
The strategy begins by calculating the True Range (TR) to measure market volatility accurately.
TR = max(High - Low, abs(High - Previous Close), abs(Low - Previous Close))
High and Low: Highest and lowest prices of the current trading period.
Previous Close: Closing price of the preceding trading period.
max: Selects the largest value among the three calculations to account for gaps and limit movements.
🔶 2. Buying Pressure (BP) Calculation
Buying Pressure (BP) quantifies the extent to which buyers are driving the price upwards within a period.
BP = Close - True Low
Close: Current period's closing price.
True Low: The lower boundary determined in the True Range calculation.
🔶 3. Ratio Calculation for Different Periods
To assess the strength of buying pressure relative to volatility, the strategy calculates a ratio over various Fibonacci-based timeframes.
Ratio = 100 * (Sum of BP over n periods) / (Sum of TR over n periods)
n: Length of the period (e.g., 8, 13, 21, 34, 55).
Sum of BP: Cumulative Buying Pressure over n periods.
Sum of TR: Cumulative True Range over n periods.
This ratio normalizes buying pressure, making it comparable across different timeframes.
🔶 4. Weighted Average Calculation
The strategy employs a weighted average of ratios from multiple Fibonacci-based periods to smooth out signals and enhance trend detection.
Weighted Avg = (w1 * Ratio_p1 + w2 * Ratio_p2 + w3 * Ratio_p3 + w4 * Ratio_p4 + Ratio_p5) / (w1 + w2 + w3 + w4 + 1)
w1, w2, w3, w4: Weights assigned to each ratio period.
Ratio_p1 to Ratio_p5: Ratios calculated for periods p1 to p5 (e.g., 8, 13, 21, 34, 55).
This weighted approach emphasizes shorter periods more heavily, capturing recent market dynamics while still considering longer-term trends.
🔶 5. Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Weighted Average
To further smooth the weighted average and reduce noise, a Simple Moving Average (SMA) is applied.
Weighted Avg SMA = SMA(Weighted Avg, m)
- m: SMA period (e.g., 3).
This smoothed line serves as the primary signal generator for trade entries and exits.
🔶 6. Trading Condition Thresholds
The strategy defines specific threshold values to determine optimal entry and exit points based on crossovers and crossunders of the SMA.
Long Condition = Crossover(Weighted Avg SMA, Long Entry Threshold)
Short Condition = Crossunder(Weighted Avg SMA, Short Entry Threshold)
Long Exit = Crossunder(Weighted Avg SMA, Long Exit Threshold)
Short Exit = Crossover(Weighted Avg SMA, Short Exit Threshold)
Long Entry Threshold (T_LE): Level at which a long position is triggered.
Short Entry Threshold (T_SE): Level at which a short position is triggered.
Long Exit Threshold (T_LX): Level at which a long position is exited.
Short Exit Threshold (T_SX): Level at which a short position is exited.
These conditions ensure that trades are only executed when clear trends are identified, enhancing the strategy's reliability.
Previous local performance
🔶 7. ATR-Based Take Profit Mechanism
When enabled, the strategy employs a 4-step Take Profit system to systematically secure profits as the trade moves in the desired direction.
TP Price_1 Long = Entry Price + (TP1ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_2 Long = Entry Price + (TP2ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_3 Long = Entry Price + (TP3ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_1 Short = Entry Price - (TP1ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_2 Short = Entry Price - (TP2ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_3 Short = Entry Price - (TP3ATR * ATR Value)
- ATR Value: Calculated using ATR over a specified period (e.g., 14).
- TPxATR: User-defined multipliers for each take profit level.
- TPx_percent: Percentage of the position to exit at each TP level.
This multi-tiered exit strategy allows for partial position closures, optimizing profit capture while maintaining exposure to potential further gains.
█ Trade Direction
The Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy is designed to operate in both long and short market conditions, providing flexibility to traders in varying market environments.
Long Trades: Initiated when the SMA of the weighted average crosses above the Long Entry Threshold (T_LE), indicating strong upward momentum.
Short Trades: Initiated when the SMA of the weighted average crosses below the Short Entry Threshold (T_SE), signaling robust downward momentum.
Additionally, the strategy can be configured to trade exclusively in one direction—Long, Short, or Both—based on the trader’s preference and market analysis.
█ Usage
Implementing the Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy involves several steps to ensure it aligns with your trading objectives and market conditions.
1. Configure Strategy Parameters:
- Trading Direction: Choose between Long, Short, or Both based on your market outlook.
- Trading Condition Thresholds: Set the Long Entry, Short Entry, Long Exit, and Short Exit thresholds to define when to enter and exit trades.
2. Set Take Profit Levels (if enabled):
- ATR Multipliers: Define how many ATRs away from the entry price each take profit level is set.
- Take Profit Percentages: Allocate what percentage of the position to close at each TP level.
3. Apply to Desired Chart:
- Add the strategy to the chart of the asset you wish to trade.
- Observe the plotted Fibonacci ATR and SMA Fibonacci ATR indicators for visual confirmation.
4. Monitor and Adjust:
- Regularly review the strategy’s performance through backtesting.
- Adjust the input parameters based on historical performance and changing market dynamics.
5. Risk Management:
- Ensure that the sum of take profit percentages does not exceed 100% to avoid over-closing positions.
- Utilize the ATR-based TP levels to adapt to varying market volatilities, maintaining a balanced risk-reward ratio.
█ Default Settings
Understanding the default settings is crucial for optimizing the Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy's performance. Here's a precise and simple overview of the key parameters and their effects:
🔶 Key Parameters and Their Effects
1. Trading Direction (`tradingDirection`)
- Default: Both
- Effect: Determines whether the strategy takes both long and short positions or restricts to one direction. Selecting Both allows maximum flexibility, while Long or Short can be used for directional bias.
2. Trading Condition Thresholds
Long Entry (long_entry_threshold = 58.0): Higher values reduce false positives but may miss trades.
Short Entry (short_entry_threshold = 42.0): Lower values capture early short trends but may increase false signals.
Long Exit (long_exit_threshold = 42.0): Exits long positions early, securing profits but potentially cutting trends short.
Short Exit (short_exit_threshold = 58.0): Delays short exits to capture favorable movements, avoiding premature exits.
3. Take Profit Configuration (`useTakeProfit` = false)
- Effect: When enabled, the strategy employs a 4-step TP mechanism to secure profits at multiple levels. By default, it is disabled to allow users to opt-in based on their trading style.
4. ATR-Based Take Profit Multipliers
TP1 (tp1ATR = 3.0): Sets the first TP at 3 ATRs for initial profit capture.
TP2 (tp2ATR = 8.0): Targets larger trends, though less likely to be reached.
TP3 (tp3ATR = 14.0): Optimizes for extreme price moves, seldom triggered.
5. Take Profit Percentages
TP Level 1 (tp1_percent = 12%): Secures 12% at the first TP.
TP Level 2 (tp2_percent = 12%): Exits another 12% at the second TP.
TP Level 3 (tp3_percent = 12%): Closes an additional 12% at the third TP.
6. Weighted Average Parameters
Ratio Periods: Fibonacci-based intervals (8, 13, 21, 34, 55) balance responsiveness.
Weights: Emphasizes recent data for timely responses to market trends.
SMA Period (weighted_avg_sma_period = 3): Smoothens data with minimal lag, balancing noise reduction and responsiveness.
7. ATR Period (`atrPeriod` = 14)
Effect: Sets the ATR calculation length, impacting TP sensitivity to volatility.
🔶 Impact on Performance
- Sensitivity and Responsiveness:
- Shorter Ratio Periods and Higher Weights: Make the weighted average more responsive to recent price changes, allowing quicker trade entries and exits but increasing the likelihood of false signals.
- Longer Ratio Periods and Lower Weights: Provide smoother signals with fewer false positives but may delay trade entries, potentially missing out on significant price moves.
- Profit Taking:
- ATR Multipliers: Higher multipliers set take profit levels further away, targeting larger price movements but reducing the probability of reaching these levels.
- Fixed Percentages: Allocating equal percentages at each TP level ensures consistent profit realization and risk management, preventing overexposure.
- Trade Direction Control:
- Selecting Specific Directions: Restricting trades to Long or Short can align the strategy with market trends or personal biases, potentially enhancing performance in trending markets.
- Risk Management:
- Take Profit Percentages: Dividing the position into smaller percentages at multiple TP levels helps lock in profits progressively, reducing risk and allowing the remaining position to ride further trends.
- Market Adaptability:
- Weighted Averages and ATR: By combining multiple timeframes and adjusting to volatility, the strategy adapts to different market conditions, maintaining effectiveness across various asset classes and timeframes.
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If you want to know more about ATR, can also check "SuperATR 7-Step Profit".
Enjoy trading.
