Cycles StrategyThis is back-testable strategy is a modified version of the Stochastic strategy. It is meant to accompany the modified Stochastic indicator: "Cycles".
Modifications to the Stochastic strategy include;
1. Programmable settings for the Stochastic Periods (%K, %D and Smooth %K).
2. Programmable settings for the MACD Periods (Fast, Slow, Smoothing)
3. Programmable thresholds for %K, to qualify a potential entry strategy.
4. Programmable thresholds for %D, to qualify a potential exit strategy.
5. Buttons to choose which components to use in the trading algorithm.
6. Choose the month and year to back test.
The trading algorithm:
1. When %K exceeds the upper/lower threshold and then hooks down/up, in the direction of the Moving Average (MA). This is the minimum entry qualification.
2. When %D exceeds the lower/upper threshold and angled in the direction of the trade, is the exit qualification.
3. Additional entry filters include the direction of MACD, Signal and %D. Also, the "cliff", being a long entry is a higher high or a short entry is a lower low.
4. Strategy can only go "Long" or "Short" depending on the selected setting.
5. By matching the settings in the "Cycles" indicator, you can (almost) see what the strategy is doing.
6. Be sure to select the "Recalculate" buttons, to recalculate on every new Tick, for best results.
Please click the Like button and leave a comment if you appreciate this script. Improvements will be implemented as time goes on.
I am not a licensed trade advisor. This strategy is for entertainment only. Use at your own risk!
Cerca negli script per "the strat"
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Fractal Chaos Oscillator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The value of Fractal Chaos Oscillator is calculated as the difference between
the most subtle movements of the market. In general, its value moves between
-1.000 and 1.000. The higher the value of the Fractal Chaos Oscillator, the
more one can say that it follows a certain trend – an increase in prices trend,
or a decrease in prices trend.
Being an indicator expressed in a numeric value, traders say that this is an
indicator that puts a value on the trendiness of the markets. When the FCO reaches
a high value, they initiate the “buy” operation, contrarily when the FCO reaches a
low value, they signal the “sell” action. This is an excellent indicator to use in
intra-day trading.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
RSI on VWAP Upgraded strategyFirst of all, the idea of apply RSI to VWAP was inspired by XaviZ; at least, that where I first saw that.
I simply applied the idea and searched for apply this on lower timeframe (M15) to increase the number of positions and improve the profit factor.
The conditions to enter are the same :
long : enter on RSI crossover oversold level
short : enter on RSI crossunder oversell level
To close position, I found a little change to apply :
long : close position when RSI(VWAP) went in overbought zone and crossunder the overbought level OR after being at least x bars in the overbought zone (parameter is 28 by default) => when the first condition happens
short : close position when RSI(VWAP) went in oversold zone and crossover the oversold level OR after being at least x bars in the oversell zone (parameter is 28 by default) => when the first condition happens
With this change, I got better results specially on BTCUSDTPERP (M15) where I reach a 6.8 profit factor with 119 trades closed. Not BAD !
The defaults parameters are the best found for BTCUSDTPERP (M15), but the strategy works fine for other pairs if you take time to find the rights combinations.
In this strategy you can change (with defaults in () ):
RSI length (28)
RSI overbought level (85)
RSI oversell level (30)
Number of bars before leaving as explain above (28)
The choice to take longs only, shorts only or both
The number of coin/token by position
The start date for backtesting
Please note that the script use a pyramiding parameter of 3 (can be changed in the first line of the script); that means that you can take up to 3 positions before closing. It lets you improve average enter price but increase the risk. 3 is the best I found to improve profit factor without expose myself too much.
This script would be better if automated because of the conditions of buy and sell.
It's only for educative purpose, not an advice to invest.
All my free scripts here : fr.tradingview.com
Leave a message and don't forget to follow me ;) !
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Fractal Chaos Bands This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Stock market moves in a highly chaotic way, but at a larger scale, the movements
follow a certain pattern that can be applied to shorter or longer periods of time
and we can use Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator to identify those patterns. Basically,
the Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator helps us to identify whether the stock market is
trending or not. When a market is trending, the bands will have a slope and if market
is not trending the bands will flatten out. As the slope of the bands decreases, it
signifies that the market is choppy, insecure and variable. As the graph becomes more
and more abrupt, be it going up or down, the significance is that the market becomes
trendy, or stable. Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator is used similarly to other bands-indicator
(Bollinger bands for instance), offering trading opportunities when price moves above or
under the fractal lines.
The FCB indicator looks back in time depending on the number of time periods trader selected
to plot the indicator. The upper fractal line is made by plotting stock price highs and the
lower fractal line is made by plotting stock price lows. Essentially, the Fractal Chaos Bands
show an overall panorama of the price movement, as they filter out the insignificant fluctuations
of the stock price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Golden Cross Optimised For Reversal (by Coinrule)A moving average crossing is a common and widely adopted trading strategy. A short-term MA crossing above a long-term one provides the buy-signal. The opposite generates a sell-signal for the strategy.
Although very popular, this strategy has some limitations that lead to frequent "false signals" and only a few very profitable trades. If the strategy provides two many trades, that generates
the risk for more potential losses
more transaction fees paid
capital allocated to the strategy, thus the impossibility of catching other potential opportunities.
Applying an additional filter to the strategy, consisting of the crossing happening below a longer-term moving average, allows increasing the chances of catching the first crossing signaling a reversal.
The indicator is set to work with three moving averages.
Buy signal: The MA(9) to cross above the MA(50), which must be below the MA(100)
Sell Signal: The MA(9) to cross below the MA(50)
This indicator works significantly better on lower time frames, where it can reduce the noise of getting too many non-profitable signals from a conventional crossing strategy.
The indicator has been backtested mostly on cryptocurrencies.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Floor Pivot Points This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The name ‘Floor-Trader Pivot,’ came from the fact that Pivot points can
be calculated quickly, on the fly using price data from the previous day
as an input. Although time-frames of less than a day can be used, Pivots are
commonly plotted on the Daily Chart; using price data from the previous day’s
trading activity.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Tilson T3 and MavilimW Triple Combined StrategyInspired by truly greatful Kivanç Ozbilgic (www.tradingview.com).
The strategy tries to combined three different moving average strategies into one.
Strategies covered are:
1. Tillson T3 Moving Average Strategy
Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA, double EMA, triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend. Here is what the calculation looks like:
T3 = c1*e6 + c2*e5 + c3*e4 + c4*e3, where:
– e1 = EMA (Close, Period)
– e2 = EMA (e1, Period)
– e3 = EMA (e2, Period)
– e4 = EMA (e3, Period)
– e5 = EMA (e4, Period)
– e6 = EMA (e5, Period)
– a is the volume factor, default value is 0.7 but 0.618 can also be used
– c1 = – a^3
– c2 = 3*a^2 + 3*a^3
– c3 = – 6*a^2 – 3*a – 3*a^3
– c4 = 1 + 3*a + a^3 + 3*a^2
T3 MovingThe T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner.
Strategy for Tillson T3 is if the close crossovers T3 line and for at least five bars the close was under the T3
2. Tillson T3 Fibonacci Cross
Kivanc Ozbilgic added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the T3 Fibonacci Strategy input box.
Strategy for Tillson T3 Fibo is when the Fibo Line crossover the T3 it gives long signal vice versa.
3. MavilimW
MavilimW is originally a support and resistance indicator based on fibonacci injected weighted moving averages.
Strategy for MavilimW is is if the close crossovers T3 line and for at least five bars the close was under the T3
Hope you enjoy
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Future Lines of Demarcation This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
An FLD is a line that is plotted on the same scale as the price and is in fact the
price itself displaced to the right (into the future) by (approximately) half the
wavelength of the cycle for which the FLD is plotted. There are three FLD's that can be
plotted for each cycle:
An FLD based on the median price.
An FLD based on the high price.
An FLD based on the low price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Fisher Transform Indicator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Market prices do not have a Gaussian probability density function
as many traders think. Their probability curve is not bell-shaped.
But trader can create a nearly Gaussian PDF for prices by normalizing
them or creating a normalized indicator such as the relative strength
index and applying the Fisher transform. Such a transformed output
creates the peak swings as relatively rare events.
Fisher transform formula is: y = 0.5 * ln ((1+x)/(1-x))
The sharp turning points of these peak swings clearly and unambiguously
identify price reversals in a timely manner.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Finite Volume Elements (FVE) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The FVE is a pure volume indicator. Unlike most of the other indicators
(except OBV), price change doesn?t come into the equation for the FVE (price
is not multiplied by volume), but is only used to determine whether money is
flowing in or out of the stock. This is contrary to the current trend in the
design of modern money flow indicators. The author decided against a price-volume
indicator for the following reasons:
- A pure volume indicator has more power to contradict.
- The number of buyers or sellers (which is assessed by volume) will be the same,
regardless of the price fluctuation.
- Price-volume indicators tend to spike excessively at breakouts or breakdowns.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Grid System With Fake MartingaleThe proposed strategy is based on a grid system with a money management that tries to replicate the effect of a martingale without having to double your position size after each loss, hence the name "fake martingale". Note that a balance using this strategy is still subject to exponential decay, the risk is not minimized, as such, it would be dangerous to use this strategy.
For more information on the martingale and grid systems see:
Strategy Settings
Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the security you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, generating fewer trades as a result.
The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase.
The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing.
Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after each win.
How It Works
Let's illustrate how we replicate a martingale without doubling our exposure with a simple casino example. Imagine you are playing roulette, and that you are betting on colors (black/red), your payout is 1 to 1, in the case you win, you will have your initial stake back plus a profit equal to your initial stake.
If your strategy is to recover any previous losses, you can double your stake each time you lose, once you win you will get back the previous losses plus a profit equal to your original stake, this is the martingale system. So how can we win back previous losses without having to double our stake? We could do that by doubling the payout ratio after a loss, so after a loss, we must use a payout ratio of 2:1, if we lose once again we must use a payout of 4:1...etc, our payout ratio would be subject to exponential growth instead of our stake.
Of course, the payout ratio is fixed with casino games, but in trading, we can manipulate the position of our take profit in order to replicate such effect, this is what this strategy is doing. So after a loss, we place our take profit such that a win recover our losses back plus generate a profit.
Advantages
The advantage of this approach is that unlike the martingale we don't double our position size, which instead can remain constant, this is a huge advantage as a martingale will require a significant capital in order to tank a series of losses.
Disadvantages
The main disadvantage of this method is that the price might never reach our take profit after a long losing streak, our balance would remain in the red and we couldn't do anything about it except reset the strategy.
Frictional costs are still a disadvantage, as such, we would need to place our take profits in order to account for them, while this is still better than purchasing additional shares, it minimizes the chances of the price reaching the take profit.
Conclusions
An alternative money management system replicating the effect of a martingale as been presented, we can see that such a system is far from being perfect, and it would be foolish to use it, however, it stills offer a convenient alternative to less aggressive progressive position sizing systems.
I have been receiving some messages from users criticizing me for exposing the martingale money management system, and I understand why but I can't agree, talking about it allow me to warn users against it, the grid-martingale methodology is will create more harm than anything else, the reward is only one side of the story and should always be compared against the risk, so always take a look at all the statics in a backtest.
Thanks for reading!
Shout-Out
This post was made possible thanks to my patrons:
@Happymono, @AmariMars, @kkhaial, @Nugehe, @LucF, @Nosmok, @iflostio, @DankBeans, @ecletv, @Neverstorm, @alex.crown.jr, @uk503, @xkingshotss, @vsov, @jbelka, @yatrader2, @hughza, @ganh
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Extracting The Trend This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Extracting The Trend
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic TSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
r - Length of first EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 4
s - Length of second EMA smoothing of 1 day smoothing 8
u- Length of third EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 6
Length of EMA signal line 3
Source of Ergotic TSI Close
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic MDI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic MACD This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship
between price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding,
he then looks at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some
innovative techniques, including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional
issues, he analyzes the intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help
define trending and non-trending periods.
Blau`s indicator is like usual MACD, but it plots opposite of meaningof
stndard MACD indicator.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Grid Like StrategyIt is possible to use progressive position sizing in order to recover from past losses, a well-known position sizing system being the "martingale", which consists of doubling your position size after a loss, this allows you to recover any previous losses in a losing streak + winning an extra. This system has seen a lot of attention from the trading community (mostly from beginners), and many strategies have been designed around the martingale, one of them being "grid trading strategies".
While such strategies often shows promising results on paper, they are often subjects to many frictions during live trading that makes them totally unusable and dangerous to the trader. The motivations behind posting such a strategy isn't to glorify such systems, but rather to present the problems behind them, many users come to me with their ideas and glorious ways to make money, sometimes they present strategies using the martingale, and it is important to present the flaws of this methodology rather than blindly saying "you shouldn't use it".
Strategy Settings
Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the symbol you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, as such higher values will generate fewer trades.
The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase.
The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing.
Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after any wins.
The Grid
Grid strategies are commons and do not present huge problems until we use certain position sizing methods such as the martingale. A martingale is extremely sensitive to any kind of friction (frictional costs, slippage...etc), the grid strategy aims to provide a stable and simple environment where a martingale might possibly behave well.
The goal of a simple grid strategy is to go long once the price crossover a certain level, a take profit is set at the level above the current one and stop loss is placed at the level below the current one, in a winning scenario the price reach the take profit, the position is closed and a new one is opened with the same setup. In a losing scenario, the price reaches the stop loss level, the position is closed and a short one is opened, the take profit is set at the level below the current one, and a stop loss is set at the level above the current one. Note that all levels are equally spaced.
It follows from this strategy that wins and losses should be constant over time, as such our balance would evolve in a linear fashion. This is a great setup for a martingale, as we are theoretically assured to recover all the looses in a losing streak.
Martingale - Exponential Decays - Risk/Reward
By using a martingale we double our position size (exposure) each time we lose a trade, if we look at our balance when using a martingale we see significant drawdowns, with our balance peaking down significantly. The martingale sequence is subject to exponential growth, as such using a martingale makes our balance exposed to exponential decays, that's really bad, we could basically lose all the initially invested capital in a short amount of time, it follows from this that the theoretical success of a martingale is determined by what is the maximum losing streak you can endure
Now consider how a martingale affects our risk-reward ratio, assuming unity position sizing our martingale sequence can be described by 2^(x-1) , using this formula we would get the amount of shares/contracts we need to purchase at the x trade of a losing streak, we would need to purchase 256 contracts in order to recover from a losing streak of size 9, this is enormous when you take into account that your wins are way smaller, the risk-reward ratio is totally unfair.
Of course, some users might think that a losing streak of size 9 is pretty unlikely, if the probability of winning and losing are both equal to 0.5, then the probability of 9 consecutive losses is equal to 0.5^9 , there are approximately 0.2% of chance of having such large losing streak, note however that under a ranging market such case scenario could happen, but we will see later that the length of a losing streak is not the only problem.
Other Problems
Having a capital large enough to tank 9any number of consecutive losses is not the only thing one should focus on, as we have to take into account market prices and trading dynamics, that's where the ugly part start.
Our first problem is frictional costs, one example being the spread, but this is a common problem for any strategy, however here a martingale is extra sensitive to it, if the strategy does not account for it then we will still double our positions costs but we might not recover all the losses of a losing streak, instead we would be recovering only a proportion of it, under such scenario you would be certain to lose over time.
Another problem are gaps, market price might open under a stop-loss without triggering it, and this is a big no-no.
Equity of the strategy on AMD, in a desired scenario the equity at the second arrow should have been at a higher position than the equity at the first arrow.
In order for the strategy to be more effective, we would need to trade a market that does not close, such as the cryptocurrency market. Finally, we might be affected by slippage, altho only extreme values might drastically affect our balance.
The Anti Martingale
The strategy lets you use an anti-martingale, which double the position size after a win instead of a loss, the goal here is not to recover from a losing strike but instead to profit from a potential winning streak.
Here we are exposing your balance to exponential gross but you might also lose a trade at the end a winning streak, you will generally want to reinitialize your position size after a few wins instead of waiting for the end of a streak.
Alternative
You can use other-kind of progressions for position sizing, such as a linear one, increasing your position size by a constant number each time you lose. More gentle progressions will recover a proportion of your losses in a losing streak.
You can also simulate the effect of a martingale without doubling your position size by doubling your target profit, if for example you have a 10$ profit-target/stop-loss and lose a trade, you can use a 20$ profit target to recover from the lost trade + gain a profit of 10$. While this approach does not introduce exponential decay in your balance, you are betting on the market reaching your take profits, considering the fact that you are doubling their size you are expecting market volatility to increase drastically over time, as such this approach would not be extremely effective for high losing streak.
Conclusion
You will see a lot of auto-trading strategies that are based on a grid approach, they might even use a martingale. While the backtests will look appealing, you should think twice before using such kind of strategy, remember that frictional costs will be a huge challenge for the strategy, and that it assumes that the trader has an important initial capital. We have also seen that the risk/reward ratio is theoretically the worst you can have on a strategy, having a low reward and a high risk. This does not mean that progressive position sizing is bad, but it should not be pushed to the extreme.
It is nice to note that the martingale is originally a betting system designed for casino games, which unlike trading are not subject to frictional costs, but even casino players don't use it, so why would you?
Thx for reading
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic CSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between
price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks
at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques,
including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the
intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and
non-trending periods.
This indicator plots Ergotic CSI and smoothed Ergotic CSI to filter out noise.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Custom Screener with Alerts [QuantNomad]Some time ago I published an example of simple custom screener in PineScript:
The only thing this screener did is created a dynamic label with screener output.
Recently TradingView announced alerts from the strategy with the possibility to add custom messages to alerts.
So using it I was able to create a bit more advanced screener which sends results as alert messages. With tools like Alertatron, you can easily redirect them to Telegram if you want.
It works for 40 symbols (limitation of the number of security calls).
To create your own screener you need to change only screenerFunc. The logic of this function is very simple, it outputs value you want to display in screener and condition based on which your screener should filter your stocks.
To create alerts for this screener create an alert from strategy and use {{strategy.order.alert_message}} as alert message.
Do you know now how to make this screener better? Let me know.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Empirical Mode Decomposition This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Empirical Mode Decomposition This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Elder Ray (Bull Power) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Developed by Dr Alexander Elder, the Elder-ray indicator measures buying
and selling pressure in the market. The Elder-ray is often used as part
of the Triple Screen trading system but may also be used on its own.
Dr Elder uses a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate the
market consensus of value. Bull Power measures the ability of buyers to
drive prices above the consensus of value. Bear Power reflects the ability
of sellers to drive prices below the average consensus of value.
Bull Power is calculated by subtracting the 13-day EMA from the day's High.
Bear power subtracts the 13-day EMA from the day's Low.
You can use in the xPrice any series: Open, High, Low, Close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4 and ect...
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Elder Ray (Bear Power) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Developed by Dr Alexander Elder, the Elder-ray indicator measures buying
and selling pressure in the market. The Elder-ray is often used as part
of the Triple Screen trading system but may also be used on its own.
Dr Elder uses a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate the
market consensus of value. Bull Power measures the ability of buyers to
drive prices above the consensus of value. Bear Power reflects the ability
of sellers to drive prices below the average consensus of value.
Bull Power is calculated by subtracting the 13-day EMA from the day's High.
Bear power subtracts the 13-day EMA from the day's Low.
You can use in the xPrice any series: Open, High, Low, Close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4 and ect...
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
KD compare strategy (交易策略對照組)This is a base and easy trading strategy for comparing my other strategy.
The strategy consider K >= 80 is strong target in the last high period,
and consider K <=20 is the weak target in the last low period.
In the strong target, the strategy may increase long at the first day when K < 50, until 2/3 max order limitation or strong target become to weak.
In the weak target, the strategy may increase short at the first day when K > 50, until 2/3 max order limitation or strong target become to strong.
there are three orders for this strategy.
when the strong become to weak, it may use the remain 1/3 to save itself, and change the direction at the next k > 50
when the weak become to weak, it may use the remain 1/3 to save itself, and change the direction at the next k < 50
這是一個簡單的雙向交易策略，用來對照我其他的策略。
當 K>=80 它會認為目前是強勢股，偏多操作
當 K<=20 它會認為目前是強勢股，偏空操作
當標的為強勢股時，當第一次 K<50 會加碼多單，最多買進2/3的持股，直到轉弱
當標的為弱勢股時，當第一次 K>50 會加碼空單，最多買進2/3的持股，直到轉強
當強勢轉弱勢時，會使用剩下的1/3來拯救持股，在下次 k > 50 出清持股
當弱勢轉強勢時，會使用剩下的1/3來拯救持股，在下次 k < 50 出清持股
