All in One Strategy no RSI Label - For higher dollar cryptoThis is the All in One Strategy without the RSI suggestion label that will work well for any of the crypto currencies trading above $500 so the overlay shows up better. I am using ETH as an example on this.
Based on some comments on my previously published script that has been replaced I have added Alert Conditions to this version that can be used in other bots. You can also copy and paste these alert conditions into the other All in One script I published for the lower priced cryptocurrencies.
To use the alert conditions I have in here, you will need to convert this strategy into a study to do so. Delete the entry and exit logic at the end (lines 299 through 351), delete line 18 and paste the following in place of line 18:
study(shorttitle='Ain1 No Label',title='All in One Strategy no RSI Label', overlay=true, scale=scale.left)
Here are the settings to mimic what you see here in the back test strategy I am publishing. Remember that previous results do not guarantee future results.
Chart Time = 30 Minutes (if you didn't read my original All in One post, read it. Shorter isn't better. You lose your money faster in a shorter amount of time and I learned that the hard way)
Start Time = 1 April 2021 00:00
End Time = 31 December 2021 00:00
Trade Type = Long/Short
Stop Loss % = 20.1
Take Profit % = 14.57
RSI Length = 20
Overbought = 44
Oversold = 45
EMA Fast Length = 5
EMA Slow Length = 15
Overbought Lookback Minimum Value = 62
Overbought Lookback Bars = 3
Oversold Minimum Value = 43
Oversold Lookback Bars = 5
Source = Close
Max Lookback Period = 5
Use EMA Only = True (check the box)
K = 9
D = 17
K Mode = SMA
High Source = ohlc4
Low Source = ohlc4
Properties - Starting Amount is $3500, everything else is the same.
Any questions, feel free to ask. I will answer as soon as I can.
Cerca negli script per "宁德时代2021年净利润+资产负债率"
Realtime Delta Volume Action [LucF]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator displays on-chart, realtime, delta volume and delta ticks information for each bar. It aims to provide traders who trade price action on small timeframes with volume and tick information gathered as updates come in the chart's feed. It builds its own candles, which are optimized to display volume delta information. It only works in realtime.
█ WARNING
This script is intended for traders who can already profitably trade discretionary on small timeframes. The high cost in fees and the excitement of trading at small timeframes have ruined many newcomers to trading. While trading at small timeframes can work magic for adrenaline junkies in search of thrills rather than profits, I DO NOT recommend it to most traders. Only seasoned discretionary traders able to factor in the relatively high cost of such a trading practice can ever hope to take money out of markets in that type of environment, and I would venture they account for an infinitesimal percentage of traders. If you are a newcomer to trading, AVOID THIS TOOL AT ALL COSTS — unless you are interested in experimenting with the interpretation of volume delta combined with price action. No tool currently available on TradingView provides this type of close monitoring of volume delta information, but if you are not already trading small timeframes profitably, please do not let yourself become convinced that it is the missing piece you needed. Avoid becoming a sucker who only contributes by providing liquidity to markets.
The information calculated by the indicator cannot be saved on charts, nor can it be recalculated from historical bars.
If you refresh the chart or restart the script, the accumulated information will be lost.
█ FEATURES
Key values
The script displays the following key values:
• Above the bar: ticks delta (DT), the total ticks for the bar, the percentage of total ticks that DT represents (DT%)
• Below the bar: volume delta (DV), the total volume for the bar, the percentage of total volume that DV represents (DV%).
Candles
Candles are composed of four components:
1. A top shaped like this: ┴, and a bottom shaped like this: ┬ (picture a normal Japanese candle without a body outline; the values used are the same).
2. The candle bodies are filled with the bull/bear color representing the polarity of DV. The intensity of the body's color is determined by the DV% value.
When DV% is 100, the intensity of the fill is brightest. This plays well in interpreting the body colors, as the smaller, less significant DV% values will produce less vivid colors.
3. The bright-colored borders of the candle bodies occur on "strong bars", i.e., bars meeting the criteria selected in the script's inputs, which you can configure.
4. The POC line is a small horizontal line that appears to the left of the candle. It is the volume-weighted average of all price updates during the bar.
Calculations
This script monitors each realtime update of the chart's feed. It first determines if price has moved up or down since the last update. The polarity of the price change, in turn, determines the polarity of the volume and tick for that specific update. If price does not move between consecutive updates, then the last known polarity is used. Using this method, we can calculate a running volume delta and ticks delta for the bar, which becomes the bar's final delta values when the bar closes (you can inspect values of elapsed realtime bars in the Data Window or the indicator's values). Note that these values will all reset if the script re-executes because of a change in inputs or a chart refresh.
While this method of calculating is not perfect, it is by far the most precise way of calculating volume delta available on TradingView at the moment. Calculating more precise results would require scripts to have access to tick data from any chart timeframe. Charts at seconds timeframes do use exchange/broker ticks when the feeds you are using allow for it, and this indicator will run on them, but tick data is not yet available from higher timeframes. Also, note that the method used in this script is far superior to the intrabar inspection technique used on historical bars in my other "Delta Volume" indicators. This is because volume and ticks delta here are calculated from many more realtime updates than the available intrabars in history. Unfortunately, the calculation method used here cannot be used on historical bars, where intrabar inspection remains, in my opinion, the optimal method.
Inputs
The script's inputs provide many ways to personalize all the components: what is displayed, the colors used to display the information, and the marker conditions. Tooltips provide details for many of the inputs; I leave their exploration to you.
Markers
Markers provide a way for you to identify the points of interest of your choice on the chart. You control the set of conditions that trigger each of the five available markers.
You select conditions by entering, in the field for each marker, the number of each condition you want to include, separated by a comma. The conditions are:
1 — The bar's polarity is up/dn.
2 — `close` rises/falls ("rises" means it is higher than its value on the previous bar).
3 — DV's polarity is +/–.
4 — DV% rises (↕).
5 — POC rises/falls.
6 — The quantity of realtime updates rises (↕).
7 — DV > limit (You specify the limit in the inputs. Since DV can be +/–, DV– must be less than `–limit` for a short marker).
8 — DV% > limit (↕).
9 — DV+ rises for a long marker, DV– falls for a short.
10 — Consecutive DV+/DV– on two bars.
11 — Total volume rises (↕).
12 — DT's polarity is +/–.
13 — DT% rises (↕).
14 — DT+ rises for a long marker, DT– falls for a short.
Conditions showing the (↕) symbol do not have symmetrical states; they act more like filters. If you only include condition 4 in a marker's setup, for example, both long and short markers will trigger on bars where DV% rises. To trigger only long or short markers, you must add a condition providing directional differentiation, such as conditions 1 or 2. Accordingly, you would enter "1,4" or "2,4".
For a marker to trigger, ALL the conditions you specified for it must be met. Long markers appear on the chart as "Mx▲" signs under the values displayed below candles. Short markers display "Mx▼" over the number of updates displayed above candles. The marker's number will replace the "x" in "Mx▲". The script loads with five markers that will not trigger because no conditions are associated with them. To activate markers, you will need to select and enter the set of conditions you require for each one.
Alerts
You can configure alerts on this script. They will trigger whenever one of the configured markers triggers. Alerts do not repaint, so they trigger at the bar's close—which is also when the markers will appear.
█ HOW TO USE IT
As a rule, I do not prescribe expected use of my indicators, as traders have proved to be much more creative than me in using them. Additionally, I tend to think that if you expect detailed recommendations from me to be able to use my indicators, it's a sign you are in a precarious situation and should go back to the drawing board and master the necessary basics that will allow you to explore and decide for yourself if my indicators can be useful to you, and how you will use them. I will make an exception for this thing, as it presents fairly novel information. I will use simple logic to surmise potential uses, as contrary to most of my other indicators, I have NOT used this one to actually trade. Markets have a way of throwing wrenches in our seemingly bullet-proof rationalizing, so drive cautiously and please forgive me if the pointers I share here don't pan out.
The first thing to do is to disable your normal bars. You can do this by clicking on the eye icon that appears when you hover over the symbol's name in the upper-left corner of your chart.
The absolute value and polarity of DV mean little without perspective; that's why I include both total volume for the bar and the percentage that DV represents of that total volume. I interpret a low DV% value as indecision. If you share that opinion, you could, let's say, configure one of the markers on "DV% > 80%", for example (to do so you would enter "8" in the condition field of any marker, and "80" in the limit field for condition 8, below the marker conditions).
I also like to analyze price action on the bar with DV%. Small DV% values should often produce small candle bodies. If a small DV% value occurs on a bar with much movement and high volume, I'm thinking "tough battle with potential explosive power when one side wins". Conversely, large bodies with high DV% mean that large volume is breaching through multiple levels, or that nobody is suddenly willing to take the other side of a normal volume of trades.
I find the POC lines really interesting. First, they tell us the price point where the most significant action (taking into account both price occurrences AND volume) during the bar occurred. Second, they can be useful when compared against past values. Third, their color helps us in figuring out which ones are the most significant. Unsurprisingly, bunches of orange POCs tend to appear in consolidation zones, in pauses, and before reversals. It may be useful to often focus more on POC progression than on `close` values. This is not to say that OHLC values are not useful; looking, as is customary, for higher highs or lower lows, or for repeated tests of precise levels can of course still be useful. I do like how POCs add another dimension to chart readings.
What should you do with the ticks delta above bars? Old-time ticker tape readers paid attention to the sounds coming from it (the "ticker" moniker actually comes from the sound they made). They knew activity was picking up when the frequency of the "ticks" increased. My thinking is that the total number of ticks will help you in the same way, since increasing updates usually mean growing interest—and thus perhaps price movement, as increasing volatility or volume would lead us to surmise. Ticks delta can help you figure out when proportionally large, random orders come in from traders with other perspectives than the short-term price action you are typically working with when you use this tool. Just as volume delta, ticks delta are one more informational component that can help you confirm convergence when building your opinions on price action.
What are strong bars? They are an attempt to identify significance. They are like a default marker, except that instead of displaying "Mx▲/▼" below/above the bar, the candle's body is outlined in bright bull/bear color when one is detected. Strong bars require a respectable amount of conditions to be met (you can see and re-configure them in the inputs). Think of them as pushes rather than indications of an upcoming, strong and multi-bar move. Pushes do, for sure, often occur at the beginning of strong trends. You will often see a few strong bars occur at 2-3 bar intervals at the beginning or middle of trends. But they also tend to occur at tops/bottoms, which makes their interpretation problematic. Another pattern that you will see quite frequently is a final strong bar in the direction of the trend, followed a few bars later by another strong bar in the reverse direction. My summary analyses seemed to indicate these were perhaps good points where one could make a bet on an early, risky reversal entry.
The last piece of information displayed by the indicator is the color of the candle bodies. Three possible colors are used. Bull/bear is determined by the polarity of DV, but only when the bar's polarity matches that of DV. When it doesn't, the color is the divergence color (orange, by default). Whichever color is used for the body, its intensity is determined by the DV% value. Maximum intensity occurs when DV%=100, so the more significant DV% values generate more noticeable colors. Body colors can be useful when looking to confirm the convergence of other components. The visual effect this creates hopefully makes it easier to detect patterns on the chart.
One obvious methodology that comes to mind to trade with this tool would be to use another indicator like Technical Ratings at a higher timeframe to identify the larger context's trend, and then use this tool to identify entries for short-term trades in that direction.
█ NOTES AND RAMBLINGS
Instant Calculations
This indicator uses instant values calculated on the bar only. No moving averages or calculations involving historical periods are used. The only exception to this rule is in some of the marker conditions like "Two consecutive DV+ values", where information from the previous bar is used.
Trading Small vs Long Timeframes
I never trade discretionary at the 5sec–5min timeframes this indicator was designed to be used with; I trade discretionary at 1D, 1W and 1M timeframes, and let systems trade at smaller timeframes. The higher the timeframe you trade at, the fewer fees you will pay because you trade less and are not churning trading volume, as is inevitable at smaller timeframes. Trading at higher timeframes is also a good way to gain an instant edge on most of the trading crowd that has its nose to the ground and often tends to forget the big picture. It also makes for a much less demanding trading practice, where you have lots of time to research and build your long-term opinions on potential future outcomes. While the future is always uncertain, I believe trades riding on long-term trends have stronger underlying support from the reality outside markets.
To traders who will ask why I publish an indicator designed for small timeframes, let me say that my main purpose here is to showcase what can be done with Pine. I often see comments by coders who are obviously not aware of what Pine is capable of in 2021. Since its humble beginnings seven years ago, Pine has grown and become a serious programming language. TradingView's growing popularity and its ongoing commitment to keep Pine accessible to newcomers to programming is gradually making Pine more and more of a standard in indicator and strategy programming. The technical barriers to entry for traders interested in owning their trading practice by developing their personal tools to trade have never been so low. I am also publishing this script because I value volume delta information, and I present here what I think is an original way of analyzing it.
Performance
The script puts a heavy load on the Pine runtime and the charting engine. After running the script for a while, you will often notice your chart becoming less responsive, and your chart tab can take longer to activate when you go back to it after using other tabs. That is the reason I encourage you to set the number of historical values displayed on bars to the minimum that meets your needs. When your chart becomes less responsive because the script has been running on it for many hours, refreshing the browser tab will restart everything and bring the chart's speed back up. You will then lose the information displayed on elapsed bars.
Neutral Volume
This script represents a departure from the way I have previously calculated volume delta in my scripts. I used the notion of "neutral volume" when inspecting intrabar timeframes, for bars where price did not move. No longer. While this had little impact when using intrabar inspection because the minimum usable timeframe was 1min (where bars with zero movement are relatively infrequent), a more precise way was required to handle realtime updates, where multiple consecutive prices often have the same value. This will usually happen whenever orders are unable to move across the bid/ask levels, either because of slow action or because a large-volume bid/ask level is taking time to breach. In either case, the proper way to calculate the polarity of volume delta for those updates is to use the last known polarity, which is how I calculate now.
The Order Book
Without access to the order book's levels (the depth of market), we are limited to analyzing transactions that come in the TradingView feed for the chart. That does not mean the volume delta information calculated this way is irrelevant; on the contrary, much of the information calculated here is not available in trading consoles supplied by exchanges/brokers. Yet it's important to realize that without access to the order book, you are forfeiting the valuable information that can be gleaned from it. The order book's levels are always in movement, of course, and some of the information they contain is mere posturing, i.e., attempts to influence the behavior of other players in the market by traders/systems who will often remove their orders when price comes near their order levels. Nonetheless, the order book is an essential tool for serious traders operating at intraday timeframes. It can be used to time entries/exits, to explain the causes of particular price movements, to determine optimal stop levels, to get to know the traders/systems you are betting against (they tend to exhibit behavioral patterns only recognizable through the order book), etc. This tool in no way makes the order book less useful; I encourage all intraday traders to become familiar with it and avoid trading without one.
[blackcat] L1 Vitali Apirine Rate Of Change With BandsLevel: 1
Background
Vitali Apirine introuced this RoC indicator of “Rate Of Change With Bands” on March 2021.
Function
In Vitali Apirine's article “Rate Of Change With Bands” , the author introduces a concept of identifying overbought and oversold levels based on calculating standard deviation bands of the rate of change (ROC) momentum oscillator. The rate of change bands widen and narrow as the ROC deviation increases and decreases. The author proposes using this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis methods to determine if the instrument is overbought or oversold.
Key Signal
UpperBand --> overbought threshold
oMARoc --> Output RoC Moving Average
LowerBand --> oversold threshold
Labels
L --> Long
S --> Short
XL --> Close Long
XS --> Close Short
Pros and Cons
100% Vitali Apirine definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his article.
Remarks
The 1st script for Blackcat1402 Vitali Apirine series publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
wEMPlotDescription:
Plots the Weekly Expected Move (wEM) using the following week's Option Chain ATM Call+Put ask price to determine the EM for the following week
The wEM is the options market pricing in the expected future volatility for the following week.
The wEM is the range that the underlying price will be contained during the week 68% of the time.
These levels can be used as targets for options or equity trades for either directional or non-directional trades.
The options market in the major indices, such as SPX, can drive the overall market's order flow and so the EM can provide
useful insight into the hedging levels being used by professionals and market markers.
As Trading View does not currently provide access to option chain data, the option chain expected move for an underlying has to be manually
entered each week, but the script provides an easy to use framework to enter the parameters for the next week.
These parameters are as follows:
eg.
t1_1 = timestamp(2021, 02, 08) <==== timestamp for the start of next week (yyyy,mm,dd)
t1_2 = timestamp(2021, 02, 12) <==== timestamp for the end of next week (yyyy,mm,dd)
plotwem("QQQ", 331.36, 5.86, t1_1, t1_2, 0, 0)
^^^^
plotwem(Symbol, Close-last-week, Expected Move next week, Next week start timestamp, Next week end timestamp, Highlight-Upper-EM, Highlight-Lower-EM)
Parameters are:
Symbol : Underlying chart symbol (aka ticker). Can be a symbol for equity, future or index.
Close-last-week: Closing price at the end of last week.
Expected Move next week: The Expected Move for next week: Calculated from next week's Option Chain ATM Call+Put ask price
Next week start timestamp : Timestamp for the start of next week
Next week end timestamp : Timestamp for the end of next week
Highlight-Upper-EM : highlight upper expected move level. Set to 1 to highlight with red color. Set to 0 is no highlight.
Highlight-Lower-EM : highlight lower expected move level. Set to 1 to highlight with red color. Set to 0 is no highlight.
The highlight parameters can be updated at any point to indicate that the underlying has either touched the EM level or breached the level.
The highlights can be used to visually determine periods of market instability which can provide insight into applicable strategies for the market conditions.
[DS]Entry_Exit_TRADE.V01-StrategyThe proposal of this script is to show the possible trading points of BUY and SELL based on the 15-minute chart of the Nasdaq Future Index. The start point of the strategy was schedule for 2021/01/01 and until the time of this publication (2021/01/31), for 1 index contract the results presented area a Gross Profit of 2.97% with a Net Profit of 1.35%.
█ FEATURES
The indicator shows on the graph the position of the MACD and TSI indicators that are the places of strength among Buyers and Sellers.
It's possible to observe a sharp fall or rise in the price of these positions.
On the current candle, a label is displayed containing the value of the William %R Mod indicator, which will display the OverBought position (dark red) and OverSold position (dark green). The other colors like light red and green are the regions where the price makes the decision of which direction to go.
There are also other indicators:
a) The positions of the BUY (light green) and SELL areas (light red);
b) The label with the position of BUY (dark green) and SELL (dark red) with the line that connects these points;
c) DEMA 72 (orange);
d) EmaOchl4 in the color green for BULL and red for BEAR market;
e) Pivots high and low
f) Maximum (purple light) and minimum areas (blue light)
█ FUNCTIONS AND SETTINGS
The indicator uses the following functions:
(1) DEMA - Double Exponential Moving Average (08,17,34, 72)
(2) ema () - Exponential Moving Averge (72, ohlc4)
(3) plot()
(4) barcolor()
(5) cross()
(6) pivots ()
(7) William R% Md (OverBought = -7, OverSold=-93)
(8) Maximum and Minimum Value
(9) fill()
(10) macd () - Moving Average Convergence Divergence (Fast Lengt=12, Slow Length=26, Source=close, Signal Smoothing=9)
(11) tsi() - Trading Strenght Indicator==> Índice de Força Real ( IFR ) (Long Length=72, Short Length=17, Signal Length=17)
(12) Buy and Sell TRADE Points
█ PERFORMANCE AND ERRORS
The positions of BUY and SELL points are defined through the crossing of the Dema 34 candles with the Ema Ohcl4. As it is an indicator, it can present different positions from de market direction. Thus there is a need to observe the direction of the market in order to verify whether the indicate decision is really acceptable. The decision to BUY or SELL an asset must be well studied to avoid financial losses. The indicator will only help you in this decision, is your responsibility the decision of entering or leaving an asset.
█ THANKS TO
PineCoders for all they do, all the tools and help they provide, and their involvement in making a better community. All the PineCoders, Pine Pros, and Pine Wizards, people who share their work and knowledge for the sake of it and helping others, I'm very happy and grate full indeed.
█ NOTE
If you have any suggestions for improving the script or need help using it, please send a message in the comments
Weekly/Daily/Hourly/Minutes Colored Background IntervalsThis is my "Weekly/Daily/Hourly/Minutes Colored Background Intervals" assistant. I wouldn't describe it as an indicator, it just exhibits coloration of referenced periods of time with bgcolor() in Pine. With the arrival of 2021, I pondered the necessity of needing a visualization pre-2021 to visually recognize periodicity of market movements by the week, day, hour, or an adjustable period of minutes. While this script is simply generic, I hope you may find useful in your endeavors as a member on TradingView.
Explaining the script's usage, the "Minutes" input can be adjusted from anywhere between 5-55 minutes for only intraday. This can be modified to accommodate 90 minutes (1.5hrs) or any other minutes period desirable by tweaking certain numbers up to 1440. Minutes and Hourly backgrounds are disabled by default for most daily traders. Changing the input() code to `true` will provide them on by default when the script loads, if you choose that route. Each time periods background color is enable/disable capable. All of the colors are easily adjustable to any combination you can ponder for your visual acuity with the color swatch provided by input(type=input.color). The coloring can be "swapped" by input() depending on how you wish to start and end the day visually. I thought this would come in handy. The weekly background can have different starting points, whether it be Sunday, Monday, or any other day such as Friday for example.
The entire script's contents isn't intended for complete re-use as is for publicly published scripts. It's more along the lines of code that could be used to personally modify indicators you have, depending on the time frames you may actually be trading on. The code is basically modular, so you can use bits and pieces of it in your personally modified Pine Editor scripts that you wish to customize for yourself. I will say that the isXxx() functions are completely reusable in any script without any need for author permission inquiries from me, as easy as copy and paste. Those may come in handy for many folks. If you find them useful in certain circumstances, use isXxx() functions as you please. Day of the week detection by functions will have applications beyond my current intended use for them.
Of notable mention, this is a miniature lesson by example of how the new input(type=input.color) may be used. I'm also using `var` inside functions to aid in computational efficiency of the script runtime. The colors are permanently stored at the very beginning of the scripts operation inside the function and just reused from that point onward. Its a rare use case, but well suited for this scripts intention. Once again I have demonstrated the "Power of Pine" for developers of any experience level to learn from via code elegance.
When available time provides itself, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and concepts presented below in the comments section, should you have any questions or comments regarding this indicator. When my indicators achieve more prevalent use by TV members , I may implement more ideas when they present themselves as worthy additions. Have a profitable future everyone!
Bull Call Spread Entry StrategyThis strategy script uses the "Spread Entry Strength" overlay indicator script I designed to show entry timing optimized for an Option Bull
Call Spread.
As for this strategy...
The defaults for the strategy itself are as follows:
Period for strategy: 1/1/18 to 12/1/2021. This can be changed to a different period using the settings.
Condition for entry:
Bull Spread Entry Strength >= "Overlay Signal Strength Level"
Limit entry is used, price must be <= close when signaled
Entry occurs by next day or the order is cancelled
Condition for exit (uses a timed exit):
Bars passed since order entry >= 30 (6 weeks..~42 calendar days)
Thursday (day before "option" expiration date... assuming weekly options exist)
All of the user settings from the overlay are pulled into this for customization purposes. Details of the actual Spread Entry Strength overlay are as follows (copied from my shared indicator):
2 background shadings will occur:
The background will shade blue if the ticker is prime for a Bullish Call spread.
The background will shade purple if the the ticker is prime for a Bearish Put spread.
In theory, if the SE Strength is at one of the extremes of the Bear or Bull side, then a spread is prime for entry.
To calculate this, 8 conditions receive a 1 or zero dependent on whether the condition is true (1) or false (0), and then all of those are summed. The primary gist of the strength comes from Nishant's book, or my interpretation thereof, with some additives that limits what I need to review (such as condition 8 below.)
The 8 Bull Conditions are:
1) Bollinger Bands are outside of the Keltner Channels
2) ADX is trending up
3) RSI is trending up
4) -DI is trending down
5) RSI is under 30
6) Price is below the lower Keltner Channel
7) Price is between the lower Bollinger Band and the Bollinger basis.
8) Price at one point within the last 5 bars was below the lower Bollinger Band
The 8 Bear Conditions are the inverse conditions (except the first):
1) Bollinger Bands are outside of the Keltner Channels
2) ADX is trending down
3) RSI is trending down
4) +DI is trending up
5) RSI is over 70
6) Price is above the upper Keltner Channel
7) Price is between the upper Bollinger Band and the Bollinger basis.
8) Price at one point within the last 5 bars was above the upper Bollinger Band
There is a "market noise" filter that will filter out shading when another market move is considered, i.e. if you don't want to see the potential trade when QQQ moves more than 1% then do the following in the settings:
Check "Market Filter"
Enter QQQ in the "Market Ticker To Use"
Enter 1 in the "Market Too Hot Level"
Press Ok
Obviously, the same holds true for the "Market Too Cool Filter."
Second release notes:
Overlay Signal Strength Level - You can set your own "level" for the overlay in the settings, instead of having to change the script code itself. I have the default set to 6. A lower number shows more overlays, a higher number shows fewer (i.e. more conditions have been met.).
Provide Narrative (Troubleshooting) - Narrative label created with several outputs that will show after the last bar. This narrative needs to be turned on in the settings, as the default is "off" ... unchecked.
Remove Strength Indicator When Squeezed - when checked no overlays will be produced regardless of "scoring." Default is off.
Show Squeezes (Will Override Indicator When Concurrent) - overlays an orange background when the ticker is in a squeeze. I am still working on the accuracy here, but it's usable. This will override the strength indicator as well. This needs to be turned on, if you want it.
Short SMA Period - period used to calculate the short SMA, used in the narrative only, at this point in time.
Medium SMA Period - period used to calculate the medium SMA, used in the narrative only, at this point in time.
Long SMA Period - period used to calculate the medium SMA, used in the narrative only, at this point in time.
Outside of the settings... a few calculation adjustments here and there have occurred and some color shading adjustments to allow for the adjustable level setting.
XMR Divergences vs KrakenSUMMARY
This script finds the percentage difference between Kraken, and multiple other exchanges, for the price of XMRUSD, and then runs a variable length moving average of those differences. Optionally, you can multiply by the reported volume of the exchange in question. Skip to "USAGE" at the bottom for a quick view of the settings. But I recommend reading DETAILED DESCRIPTION as well.
PURPOSE
The purpose of this script is to get a look into the relative funds flows of XMR between Kraken and the other exchanges. So long as an exchange withdraws are open: 1) Negative divergences indicate XMR outflows from the exchange under consideration, 2) Postive divergences indicate XMR inflows from Kraken to the exchange.
This appears to be moderately correlated with price movements in Monero (but not always). There is also the theory that positive accumulation is a leading indication of a growing probability of postive price action in the general crypto market, and negative accumulation is a leading indicator of an upcoming peak. In other words, exchanges like to accumulate Monero quietly during calm downtimes, and they like to manage its price from gaining too much attention (pump) during broad market positivity.
BACKGROUND
It's well known among XMR traders that most exchanges are operating on a heavy fractional reserve basis as regards Monero. The past 2 years have seen regular and repeated withdraw freezes, sometimes for weeks/months at a time. Occasionally, liquidity stress tests have been performed, with predictable results - none of these exchanges are able to continue supporting withdraws.
Kraken is the only exchange of meaningful volume that has never frozen withdraws for more than an hour or so. Thus, we theorize that Kraken is operating with all, or most of the XMR they claim to have.
Furthermore, we have seen in the past, large price negative price divergences of these fractional reserve exchanges relative to Kraken. As the social outcry grew stronger for this malfeasance, these exchanges have gone to greater lengths to hide their price divergences.
On minute-by-minute ; hour-by-hour basis, typically, a look with the naked eye would show oscillation around the zero point. But when you average it out, especially on lower timeframes (like the 1 and 5 min candles), you can very clearly see that when withdraws are shut down, these exchanges simultaneously diverge their prices downwards as well.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
The ideal view of price divergence would compare second-by-second prices, and then run something like a rolling 4-hr or 1-day SMA to average out the overall divergences. However, due to limitations of TradingView, this is impractical/impossible for actual usage/viewing. As a result, a balance must be struck, when selecting the combination of the candle period, and the SMA lookback length.
I find that 5min candles, with a 48-period lookback (that equates to a rolling 4-hour SMA), offers the best view of recent and historical price divergence activity. This of course means that we're only sampling price divergences once every 5 minutes, but it still provides a decent look at what's happening. If this script gets popular, I wouldn't be surprised if these exchanges start timing their candle closes to mask their misdeeds, but that's of course speculative on my part.
The other important factor here, *IS TO MULTIPLY BY VOLUME*. Some of these no-volume exchanges have large price divergences. But if they're not doing any real volume, then it doesn't really have any real market impact. Thus, I recommend keeping the "Make volume adjustment" option on.
If that ends up happening, we'll have to infer that by comparing the difference in close prices, vs the difference in the highest or lowest intra-candle prices (wicks). Typically a divergence should have all 3 showing similar results.
Notes regarding "Sum_of_All": This only makes sense when multiplying by volume. So only check this if you also made the volume adjustment. Generally I believe that *Binance* sets the tone. However, we have seen numerous occasions where Binance diverges down, and the others diverge up. I believe this is a social influence tactic, since most people look at Binance price. Meanwhile, they're trying to accumulate some small amount on the other exchanges to minimize their overall loss. This of course assumes collusion by these exchanges, which is a high likely hood, seeing as how in May 2021, they all diverged together simultaneously (among other evidence).
USAGE
I recommend using your browser zoom, to see data beyond 1 month in the past.
Lookback - The number of candles over which to conduct a moving average. On 5-min candles for example, here's how the math works out:
12 - Equates to a 1 hr MA
24 - 2 hrs
48 - 4 hrs (default)
288 - 1 day
2880 - 10 days
Make Volume Adjustment - Recommend that you usually keep this on.
Line Widths - Set to preference
Show_Close_Price? - You can compute the difference at candle close. Or you can check the other boxes to compare the highest/lowest prices for intra candle prices (wicks).
Show Sum_of_All? - You can sum all of the differences, which only makes sense if you're making the volume adjustement. Default is off. Below, you can also choose which exchanges to include in the sum.
This works best on lower timeframes, like the 1m, 5, and 15m charts. I personally use 5m, with 48 or 96 length lookback. You get a better view of the real time price divergences that way.
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Ethereum Logarithmic Regression BandsOverview
This indicator displays logarithmic regression bands for Ethereum. Logarithmic regression is a statistical method used to model data where growth slows down over time. I initially created these bands in 2021 using a spreadsheet, and later coded them in TradingView in 2022. Over time, the bands proved effective at capturing bull market peaks and bear market lows. In 2025, I decided to share this indicator because I believe these logarithmic regression bands offer the best fit for the Ethereum chart.
How It Works
The logarithmic regression lines are fitted to the Ethereum (ETHUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). The formula for logarithmic regression is 10^((a * ln) - b).
How to Use the Logarithmic Regression Bands
1. Lower Band:
The lower (blue) band forms a potential support area for Ethereum’s price. Historically, Ethereum has found its lows within this band during past market cycles. When the price is within the lower band, it suggests that Ethereum is undervalued.
2. Upper Band:
The upper (red) band forms a potential resistance area for Ethereum’s price. The logarithmic band is fitted to the past two market cycle peaks; therefore, there is not enough historical data to be sure it will reach the upper band again. However, the chance is certainly there! If the price is within the upper band, it indicates that Ethereum is overvalued and that a potential price correction may be imminent.
BTC Dominance Zones (For Altseason)Overview
The "BTC Dominance Zones (For Altseason)" indicator is a visual tool designed to help traders navigate the different phases of the altcoin market cycle by tracking Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D).
It provides clear, color-coded zones directly on the BTC.D chart, offering an intuitive roadmap for the progression of alt season.
Purpose & Problem Solved
Many traders often miss altcoin rotations or get caught at market tops due to emotional decision-making or a lack of a clear framework. This indicator aims to solve that problem by providing an objective, historically informed guide based on Bitcoin Dominance, helping users to prepare before the market makes its decisive moves. It distils complex market dynamics into easily digestible sections.
Key Features & Components
Color-Coded Horizontal Zones: The indicator draws fixed horizontal bands on the BTC.D chart, each representing a distinct phase of the altcoin market cycle.
Descriptive Labels: Each zone is clearly labeled with its strategic meaning (e.g., "Alts are dead," "Danger Zone") and the corresponding BTC.D percentage range, positioned to the right of the price action for clarity.
Consistent Aesthetics: All text within the labels is rendered in white for optimal visibility across the colored zones.
Symbol Restriction: The indicator includes an automatic check to ensure it only draws its visuals when applied specifically to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart. If applied to another chart, it displays a helpful message and remains invisible to prevent confusion.
Methodology & Interpretation
The indicator's methodology is based on the historical behavior of Bitcoin Dominance during various market cycles, particularly the 2021 bull run. Each zone provides a specific interpretation for altcoin strategy:
Grey Zone (BTC.D 60-70%+): "Alts Are Dead"
Interpretation: When Bitcoin Dominance is in this grey zone (typically above 60%), Bitcoin is king, and capital remains concentrated in BTC. This indicates that alt season is largely inactive or "dead". This phase is generally not conducive for aggressive altcoin trading.
Blue Zone (BTC.D 55-60%): "Alt Season Loading"
Interpretation: As BTC.D drops into this blue zone (below 60%), it signals that the market is "heating up" for altcoins. This is the time to start planning and executing your initial positions in high-conviction large-cap and strong narrative plays, as capital begins to look for more risk.
Green Zone (BTC.D 50-55%): "Alt Season Underway"
Interpretation: Entering this green zone (below 55%) signifies that "real momentum" is building, and alt season is genuinely "underway". Money is actively flowing from Ethereum into large and mid-cap altcoins. If you've positioned correctly, your portfolio should be showing strong gains in this phase.
Orange Zone (BTC.D 45-50%): "Alt Season Ending"
Interpretation: As BTC.D dips into this orange zone (below 50%), it suggests that altcoin dominance is reaching its peak, indicating the "ending" phase of alt season. While euphoria might be high, this is a critical warning zone to prepare for profit-taking, as it's a phase of "peak risk".
Red Zone (BTC.D Below 45%): "Danger Zone - Alts Overheated"
Interpretation: This red zone (below 45%) is the most critical "DANGER ZONE". It historically marks the point of maximum froth and risk, where altcoins are overheated. This is the decisive signal to aggressively take profits, de-risk, and exit positions to preserve your capital before a potential sharp correction. Historically, dominance has gone as low as 39-40% in this phase.
How to Use
Open TradingView and search for the BTC.D symbol to load the Bitcoin Dominance chart and view the indicator.
Double click the indicator to access settings.
Inputs/Settings
The indicator's zone boundaries are set to historically relevant levels for consistency with the Alt Season Blueprint strategy. However, the colors of each zone are fully customizable through the indicator's settings, allowing users to personalize the visual appearance to their preference. You can access these color options in the indicator's "Settings" menu once it's added to your chart.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
About the Author
This indicator was developed by Nick from Lab of Crypto.
Release Notes
v1.0 (June 2025): Initial release featuring color-coded horizontal BTC.D zones with descriptive labels, based on Alt Season Blueprint strategy. Includes symbol restriction for correct chart application and consistent white text.
Bitcoin Power Law OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. The main body of the script can be found here.
Understanding the Bitcoin Power Law Model
Also called the Long-Term Bitcoin Power Law Model. The Bitcoin Power Law model tries to capture and predict Bitcoin's price growth over time. It assumes that Bitcoin's price follows an exponential growth pattern, where the price increases over time according to a mathematical relationship.
By fitting a power law to historical data, the model creates a trend line that represents this growth. It then generates additional parallel lines (support and resistance lines) to show potential price boundaries, helping to visualize where Bitcoin’s price could move within certain ranges.
In simple terms, the model helps us understand Bitcoin's general growth trajectory and provides a framework to visualize how its price could behave over the long term.
The Bitcoin Power Law has the following function:
Power Law = 10^(a + b * log10(d))
Consisting of the following parameters:
a: Power Law Intercept (default: -17.668).
b: Power Law Slope (default: 5.926).
d: Number of days since a reference point(calculated by counting bars from the reference point with an offset).
Explanation of the a and b parameters:
Roughly explained, the optimal values for the a and b parameters are determined through a process of linear regression on a log-log scale (after applying a logarithmic transformation to both the x and y axes). On this log-log scale, the power law relationship becomes linear, making it possible to apply linear regression. The best fit for the regression is then evaluated using metrics like the R-squared value, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. This process can be quite complex and is beyond the scope of this post.
Applying vertical shifts to generate the other lines:
Once the initial power-law is created, additional lines are generated by applying a vertical shift. This shift is achieved by adding a specific number of days (or years in case of this script) to the d-parameter. This creates new lines perfectly parallel to the initial power law with an added vertical shift, maintaining the same slope and intercept.
In the case of this script, shifts are made by adding +365 days, +2 * 365 days, +3 * 365 days, +4 * 365 days, and +5 * 365 days, effectively introducing one to five years of shifts. This results in a total of six Power Law lines, as outlined below (From lowest to highest):
Base Power Law Line (no shift)
1-year shifted line
2-year shifted line
3-year shifted line
4-year shifted line
5-year shifted line
The six power law lines:
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the Bitcoin Power Law. This version applies a logarithmic transformation to the price, Base Power Law Line, and 5-year shifted line using the formula: log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed Base Power Law Line and 5-year shifted line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(Base Power Law Line) / log(5-year shifted line) - log(Base Power Law Line)
Finally, the normalized price was multiplied by 5 to map its value between 0 and 5, aligning with the shifted lines.
Interpretation of the Bitcoin Power Law Model:
The shifted Power Law lines provide a framework for predicting Bitcoin's future price movements based on historical trends. These lines are created by applying a vertical shift to the initial Power Law line, with each shifted line representing a future time frame (e.g., 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.).
By analyzing these shifted lines, users can make predictions about minimum price levels at specific future dates. For example, the 5-year shifted line will act as the main support level for Bitcoin’s price in 5 years, meaning that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below this line, ensuring that Bitcoin will be valued at least at this level by that time. Similarly, the 2-year shifted line will serve as the support line for Bitcoin's price in 2 years, establishing that the price should not drop below this line within that time frame.
On the other hand, the 5-year shifted line also functions as an absolute resistance , meaning Bitcoin's price will not exceed this line prior to the 5-year mark. This provides a prediction that Bitcoin cannot reach certain price levels before a specific date. For example, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $100,000 before 2021, and it will not exceed this price before the 5-year shifted line becomes relevant. After 2028, however, the price is predicted to never fall below $100,000, thanks to the support established by the shifted lines.
In essence, the shifted Power Law lines offer a way to predict both the minimum price levels that Bitcoin will hit by certain dates and the earliest dates by which certain price points will be reached. These lines help frame Bitcoin's potential future price range, offering insight into long-term price behavior and providing a guide for investors and analysts. Lets examine some examples:
Example 1:
In Example 1 it can be seen that point A on the 5-year shifted line acts as major resistance . Also it can be seen that 5 years later this price level now corresponds to the Base Power Law Line and acts as a major support at point B(Note: Vertical yearly grid lines have been added for this purpose👍).
Example 2:
In Example 2, the price level at point C on the 3-year shifted line becomes a major support three years later at point D, now aligning with the Base Power Law Line.
Finally, let's explore some future price predictions, as this script provides projections on the weekly timeframe :
Example 3:
In Example 3, the Bitcoin Power Law indicates that Bitcoin's price cannot surpass approximately $808K before 2030 as can be seen at point E, while also ensuring it will be at least $224K by then (point F).
Bitcoin Power LawThis is the main body version of the script. The Oscillator version can be found here.
Understanding the Bitcoin Power Law Model
Also called the Long-Term Bitcoin Power Law Model. The Bitcoin Power Law model tries to capture and predict Bitcoin's price growth over time. It assumes that Bitcoin's price follows an exponential growth pattern, where the price increases over time according to a mathematical relationship.
By fitting a power law to historical data, the model creates a trend line that represents this growth. It then generates additional parallel lines (support and resistance lines) to show potential price boundaries, helping to visualize where Bitcoin’s price could move within certain ranges.
In simple terms, the model helps us understand Bitcoin's general growth trajectory and provides a framework to visualize how its price could behave over the long term.
The Bitcoin Power Law has the following function:
Power Law = 10^(a + b * log10(d))
Consisting of the following parameters:
a: Power Law Intercept (default: -17.668).
b: Power Law Slope (default: 5.926).
d: Number of days since a reference point(calculated by counting bars from the reference point with an offset).
Explanation of the a and b parameters:
Roughly explained, the optimal values for the a and b parameters are determined through a process of linear regression on a log-log scale (after applying a logarithmic transformation to both the x and y axes). On this log-log scale, the power law relationship becomes linear, making it possible to apply linear regression. The best fit for the regression is then evaluated using metrics like the R-squared value, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. This process can be quite complex and is beyond the scope of this post.
Applying vertical shifts to generate the other lines:
Once the initial power-law is created, additional lines are generated by applying a vertical shift. This shift is achieved by adding a specific number of days (or years in case of this script) to the d-parameter. This creates new lines perfectly parallel to the initial power law with an added vertical shift, maintaining the same slope and intercept.
In the case of this script, shifts are made by adding +365 days, +2 * 365 days, +3 * 365 days, +4 * 365 days, and +5 * 365 days, effectively introducing one to five years of shifts. This results in a total of six Power Law lines, as outlined below (From lowest to highest):
Base Power Law Line (no shift)
1-year shifted line
2-year shifted line
3-year shifted line
4-year shifted line
5-year shifted line
The six power law lines:
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the Bitcoin Power Law. This version applies a logarithmic transformation to the price, Base Power Law Line, and 5-year shifted line using the formula: log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed Base Power Law Line and 5-year shifted line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(Base Power Law Line) / log(5-year shifted line) - log(Base Power Law Line)
Finally, the normalized price was multiplied by 5 to map its value between 0 and 5, aligning with the shifted lines.
Interpretation of the Bitcoin Power Law Model:
The shifted Power Law lines provide a framework for predicting Bitcoin's future price movements based on historical trends. These lines are created by applying a vertical shift to the initial Power Law line, with each shifted line representing a future time frame (e.g., 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.).
By analyzing these shifted lines, users can make predictions about minimum price levels at specific future dates. For example, the 5-year shifted line will act as the main support level for Bitcoin’s price in 5 years, meaning that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below this line, ensuring that Bitcoin will be valued at least at this level by that time. Similarly, the 2-year shifted line will serve as the support line for Bitcoin's price in 2 years, establishing that the price should not drop below this line within that time frame.
On the other hand, the 5-year shifted line also functions as an absolute resistance , meaning Bitcoin's price will not exceed this line prior to the 5-year mark. This provides a prediction that Bitcoin cannot reach certain price levels before a specific date. For example, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $100,000 before 2021, and it will not exceed this price before the 5-year shifted line becomes relevant. After 2028, however, the price is predicted to never fall below $100,000, thanks to the support established by the shifted lines.
In essence, the shifted Power Law lines offer a way to predict both the minimum price levels that Bitcoin will hit by certain dates and the earliest dates by which certain price points will be reached. These lines help frame Bitcoin's potential future price range, offering insight into long-term price behavior and providing a guide for investors and analysts. Lets examine some examples:
Example 1:
In Example 1 it can be seen that point A on the 5-year shifted line acts as major resistance . Also it can be seen that 5 years later this price level now corresponds to the Base Power Law Line and acts as a major support at point B (Note: Vertical yearly grid lines have been added for this purpose👍).
Example 2:
In Example 2, the price level at point C on the 3-year shifted line becomes a major support three years later at point D, now aligning with the Base Power Law Line.
Finally, let's explore some future price predictions, as this script provides projections on the weekly timeframe :
Example 3:
In Example 3, the Bitcoin Power Law indicates that Bitcoin's price cannot surpass approximately $808K before 2030 as can be seen at point E, while also ensuring it will be at least $224K by then (point F).
Multi-Indicator Swing [TIAMATCRYPTO]v6# Strategy Description:
## Multi-Indicator Swing
This strategy is designed for swing trading across various markets by combining multiple technical indicators to identify high-probability trading opportunities. The system focuses on trend strength confirmation and volume analysis to generate precise entry and exit signals.
### Core Components:
- **Supertrend Indicator**: Acts as the primary trend direction filter with optimized settings (Factor: 3.0, ATR Period: 10) to balance responsiveness and reliability.
- **ADX (Average Directional Index)**: Confirms the strength of the prevailing trend, filtering out sideways or choppy market conditions where the strategy avoids taking positions.
- **Liquidity Delta**: A volume-based indicator that analyzes buying and selling pressure imbalances to validate trend direction and potential reversals.
- **PSAR (Optional)**: Can be enabled to add additional confirmation for trend changes, turned off by default to reduce signal filtering.
### Key Features:
- **Flexible Direction Trading**: Choose between long-only, short-only, or bidirectional trading to adapt to market conditions or account restrictions.
- **Conservative Risk Management**: Implements fixed percentage-based stop losses (default 2%) and take profits (default 4%) for a positive risk-reward ratio.
- **Realistic Backtesting Parameters**: Includes commission (0.1%) and slippage (2 points) to reflect real-world trading conditions.
- **Visual Signals**: Clear buy/sell arrows with customizable sizes for easy identification on the chart.
- **Information Panel**: Dynamic display showing active indicators and current risk settings.
### Best Used On:
Daily timeframes for cryptocurrencies, forex, or stock indices. The strategy performs optimally on assets with clear trending behavior and sufficient volatility.
### Default Settings:
Optimized for conservative position sizing (5% of equity per trade) with an initial capital of $10,000. The backtesting period (2021-2023) provides a statistically significant sample of varied market conditions.
OverUnder Yield Spread🗺️ OverUnder is a structural regime visualizer , engineered to diagnose the shape, tone, and trajectory of the yield curve. Rather than signaling trades directly, it informs traders of the world they’re operating in. Yield curve steepening or flattening, normalizing or inverting — each regime reflects a macro pressure zone that impacts duration demand, liquidity conditions, and systemic risk appetite. OverUnder abstracts that complexity into a color-coded compression map, helping traders orient themselves before making risk decisions. Whether you’re in bonds, currencies, crypto, or equities, the regime matters — and OverUnder makes it visible.
🧠 Core Logic
Built to show the slope and intent of a selected rate pair, the OverUnder Yield Spread defaults to 🇺🇸US10Y-US2Y, but can just as easily compare global sovereign curves or even dislocated monetary systems. This value is continuously monitored and passed through a debounce filter to determine whether the curve is:
• Inverted, or
• Steepening
If the curve is flattening below zero: the world is bracing for contraction. Policy lags. Risk appetite deteriorates. Duration gets bid, but only as protection. Stocks and speculative assets suffer, regardless of positioning.
📍 Curve Regimes in Bull and Bear Contexts
• Flattening occurs when the short and long ends compress . In a bull regime, flattening may reflect long-end demand or fading growth expectations. In a bear regime, flattening often precedes or confirms central bank tightening.
• Steepening indicates expanding spread . In a bull context, this may signal healthy risk appetite or early expansion. In a bear or crisis context, it may reflect aggressive front-end cuts and dislocation between short- and long-term expectations.
• If the curve is steepening above zero: the world is rotating into early expansion. Risk assets behave constructively. Bond traders position for normalization. Equities and crypto begin trending higher on rising forward expectations.
🖐️ Dynamically Colored Spread Line Reflects 1 of 4 Regime States
• 🟢 Normal / Steepening — early expansion or reflation
• 🔵 Normal / Flattening — late-cycle or neutral slowdown
• 🟠 Inverted / Steepening — policy reversal or soft landing attempt
• 🔴 Inverted / Flattening — hard contraction, credit stress, policy lag
🍋 The Lemon Label
At every bar, an anchored label floats directly on the spread line. It displays the active regime (in plain English) and the precise spread in percent (or basis points, depending on resolution). Colored lemon yellow, neither green nor red, the label is always legible — a design choice to de-emphasize bias and center the data .
🎨 Fill Zones
These bands offer spatial, persistent views of macro compression or inversion depth.
• Blue fill appears above the zero line in normal (non-inverted) conditions
• Red fill appears below the zero line during inversion
🧪 Sample Reading: 1W chart of TLT
OverUnder reveals a multi-year arc of structural inversion and regime transition. From mid-2021 through late 2023, the spread remains decisively inverted, signaling persistent flattening and credit stress as bond prices trended sharply lower. This prolonged inversion aligns with a high-volatility phase in TLT, marked by lower highs and an accelerating downtrend, confirming policy lag and macro tightening conditions.
As of early 2025, the spread has crossed back above the zero baseline into a “Normal / Steepening” regime (annotated at +0.56%), suggesting a macro inflection point. Price action remains subdued, but the shift in yield structure may foreshadow a change in trend context — particularly if follow-through in steepening persists.
🎭 Different Traders Respond Differently:
• Bond traders monitor slope change to anticipate policy pivots or recession signals.
• Equity traders use regime shifts to time rotations, from growth into defense, or from contraction into reflation.
• Currency traders interpret curve steepening as yield compression or divergence depending on region.
• Crypto traders treat inversion as a liquidity vacuum — and steepening as an early-phase risk unlock.
🛡️ Can It Compare Different Bond Markets?
Yes — with caveats. The indicator can be used to compare distinct sovereign yield instruments, for example:
• 🇫🇷FR10Y vs 🇩🇪DE10Y - France vs Germany
• 🇯🇵JP10Y vs 🇺🇸US10Y - BoJ vs Fed policy curves
However:
🙈 This no longer visualizes the domestic yield curve, but rather the differential between rate expectations across regions
🙉 The interpretation of “inversion” changes — it reflects spread compression across nations , not within a domestic yield structure
🙊 Color regimes should then be viewed as relative rate positioning , not absolute curve health
🙋🏻 Example: OverUnder compares French vs German 10Y yields
1. 🇫🇷 Change the long-duration ticker to FR10Y
2. 🇩🇪 Set the short-duration ticker to DE10Y
3. 🤔 Interpret the result as: “How much higher is France’s long-term borrowing cost vs Germany’s?”
You’ll see steepening when the spread rises (France decoupling), flattening when the spread compresses (convergence), and inversions when Germany yields rise above France’s — historically rare and meaningful.
🧐 Suggested Use
OverUnder is not a signal engine — it’s a context map. Its value comes from situating any trade idea within the prevailing yield regime. Use it before entries, not after them.
• On the 1W timeframe, OverUnder excels as a macro overlay. Yield regime shifts unfold over quarters, not days. Weekly structure smooths out rate volatility and reveals the true curvature of policy response and liquidity pressure. Use this view to orient your portfolio, define directional bias, or confirm long-duration trend turns in assets like TLT, SPX, or BTC.
• On the 1D timeframe, the indicator becomes tactically useful — especially when aligning breakout setups or trend continuations with steepening or flattening transitions. Daily views can also identify early-stage regime cracks that may not yet be visible on the weekly.
• Avoid sub-daily use unless you’re anchoring a thesis already built on higher timeframe structure. The yield curve is a macro construct — it doesn’t oscillate cleanly at intraday speeds. Shorter views may offer clarity during event-driven spikes (like FOMC reactions), but they do not replace weekly context.
Ultimately, OverUnder helps you decide: What kind of world am I trading in? Use it to confirm macro context, avoid fighting the curve, and lean into trades aligned with the broader pressure regime.
Buffett Indicator with Historical Bubbles (Clean)The Buffett Indicator is a trusted macroeconomic gauge that compares the total US stock market capitalization to the nation’s GDP. Popularized by Warren Buffett, this metric highlights periods of overvaluation and undervaluation in the market.
This tool offers a clean and accurate visualization of the Buffett Indicator, enhanced with historical bubble annotations for key market events:
Dot-com Bubble (2000)
Global Financial Crisis Peak (2007)
COVID-19 Pre-crash Peak (2020)
Post-COVID Bull Market Peak (2021)
Features:
Dynamic Buffett Ratio (%) calculation using Wilshire 5000 Index as the market cap proxy.
Customizable GDP input for accuracy (update quarterly).
Visual thresholds for fair value, undervaluation, and overvaluation zones.
Historical event markers for educational and analytical context.
Optimized to display clearly across all timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly.
How to Use:
Manually update the GDP input as new data is released.
Use this indicator for macro-level market sentiment analysis and valuation tracking.
Combine with other tools and risk management strategies for comprehensive market insights.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and analysis.
Version: 1.0
we ask Allah reconcile and repay
#BuffettIndicator #MarketValuation #MacroAnalysis #BubbleDetector #LongTermInvestor #USMarket #Wilshire5000 #TradingViewScript
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Indicator### **What This Script Does (In Plain English)**
Imagine Bitcoin has a "fair price" based on what people *actually paid* for it (called the **Realized Value**). This script tells you if Bitcoin is currently **overpriced** or **underpriced** compared to that fair price, using math.
---
### **How It Works (Like a Car Dashboard)**
1. **The Speedometer (Z-Score Line)**
- The blue line (**Z-Score**) acts like a speedometer for Bitcoin’s price:
- **Above Red Line** → Bitcoin is "speeding" (overpriced).
- **Below Green Line** → Bitcoin is "parked" (underpriced).
2. **The Warning Lights (Colors)**
- **Red Background**: "Slow down!" – Bitcoin might be too expensive.
- **Green Background**: "Time to fuel up!" – Bitcoin might be a bargain.
3. **The Alarms (Alerts)**
- Your phone buzzes when:
- Green light turns on → "Buy opportunity!"
- Red light turns on → "Be careful – might be time to sell!"
---
### **Real-Life Example**
- **2021 Bitcoin Crash**:
- The red light turned on when Bitcoin hit $60,000+ (Z-Score >7).
- A few months later, Bitcoin crashed to $30,000.
- **2023 Rally**:
- The green light turned on when Bitcoin was around $20,000 (Z-Score <0.1).
- Bitcoin later rallied to $35,000.
---
### **How to Use It (3 Simple Steps)**
1. **Look at the Blue Line**:
- If it’s **rising toward the red zone**, Bitcoin is getting expensive.
- If it’s **falling toward the green zone**, Bitcoin is getting cheap.
2. **Check the Colors**:
- Trade carefully when the background is **red**.
- Look for buying chances when it’s **green**.
3. **Set Alerts**:
- Get notified when Bitcoin enters "cheap" or "expensive" zones.
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### **Important Notes**
- **Not Magic**: This tool helps spot trends but isn’t perfect. Always combine it with other indicators.
- **Best for Bitcoin**: Works great for Bitcoin, not as well for altcoins.
- **Long-Term Focus**: Signals work best over months/years, not hours.
---
Think of it as a **thermometer for Bitcoin’s price fever** – it tells you when the market is "hot" or "cold." 🔥❄️
Bitcoin Reversal PredictorOverview
This indicator displays two lines that, when they cross, signal a potential reversal in Bitcoin's price trend. Historically, the high or low of a bull market cycle often occurs near the moment these lines intersect. The lines consist of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a logarithmic regression line fitted to all of Bitcoin's historical data.
Inspiration
The inspiration for this indicator came from the PI Cycle Top indicator, which has accurately predicted past bull market peaks. However, I believe the PI Cycle Top indicator may not be as effective in the future. In that indicator, two lines cross to mark the top, but the extent of the cross has been diminishing over time. This was especially noticeable in the 2021 cycle, where the lines barely crossed. Because of this, I created a new indicator that I think will continue to provide reliable reversal signals in the future.
How It Works
The logarithmic regression line is fitted to the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). This results in a steadily decreasing line. The EMA oscillates above and below this regression line. Each time the two lines cross, a vertical colored bar appears, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum is likely to reverse.
Use Cases
- Price Bottoming:
Bitcoin often bottoms out when the EMA crosses below the logarithmic regression line.
- Price Topping:
In contrast, Bitcoin often peaks when the EMA crosses above the logarithmic regression line.
- Profitable Strategy:
Trading at the crossovers of these lines can be a profitable strategy, as these moments often signal significant price reversals.
Percentages from 52 Week HighThis script is helpful for anyone that wants to monitor 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50% drops from the 52 week moving high.
I have been using a version of this script for a few years now and thought I would share it back with the community as I wrote it in 2021 to find quick deals when flipping through charts of stocks I've been watching. I never seemed to find anything doing this simple yet intuitive thing and I found myself regularly computing these lines manually on each chart. This will save you from having to do that as it automatically draws each level on your chart based on the recent 52 week or daily high.
I recently added the ability to turn on/off different levels and defaulted to setting 5, 10, and 20 % drops from the 52 week high. You can also change this to be a 52 day moving high if that's your preference.
Please let me know if you have ideas for modification as I wanted to share this with the community given I had not seen anything out there giving me what I wanted - which is why I wrote it.
All the best friends.
SimilarityMeasuresLibrary "SimilarityMeasures"
Similarity measures are statistical methods used to quantify the distance between different data sets
or strings. There are various types of similarity measures, including those that compare:
- data points (SSD, Euclidean, Manhattan, Minkowski, Chebyshev, Correlation, Cosine, Camberra, MAE, MSE, Lorentzian, Intersection, Penrose Shape, Meehl),
- strings (Edit(Levenshtein), Lee, Hamming, Jaro),
- probability distributions (Mahalanobis, Fidelity, Bhattacharyya, Hellinger),
- sets (Kumar Hassebrook, Jaccard, Sorensen, Chi Square).
---
These measures are used in various fields such as data analysis, machine learning, and pattern recognition. They
help to compare and analyze similarities and differences between different data sets or strings, which
can be useful for making predictions, classifications, and decisions.
---
References:
en.wikipedia.org
cran.r-project.org
numerics.mathdotnet.com
github.com
github.com
github.com
Encyclopedia of Distances, doi.org
ssd(p, q)
Sum of squared difference for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Measure of distance that calculates the squared euclidean distance.
euclidean(p, q)
Euclidean distance for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Measure of distance that calculates the straight-line (or Euclidean).
manhattan(p, q)
Manhattan distance for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Measure of absolute differences between both points.
minkowski(p, q, p_value)
Minkowsky Distance for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
p_value (float) : `float` P value, default=1.0(1: manhatan, 2: euclidean), does not support chebychev.
Returns: Measure of similarity in the normed vector space.
chebyshev(p, q)
Chebyshev distance for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Measure of maximum absolute difference.
correlation(p, q)
Correlation distance for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Measure of maximum absolute difference.
cosine(p, q)
Cosine distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The Cosine distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
angiogenesis.dkfz.de
camberra(p, q)
Camberra distance for N dimensions.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Weighted measure of absolute differences between both points.
mae(p, q)
Mean absolute error is a normalized version of the sum of absolute difference (manhattan).
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Mean absolute error of vectors `p` and `q`.
mse(p, q)
Mean squared error is a normalized version of the sum of squared difference.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Mean squared error of vectors `p` and `q`.
lorentzian(p, q)
Lorentzian distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Lorentzian distance of vectors `p` and `q`.
---
angiogenesis.dkfz.de
intersection(p, q)
Intersection distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Intersection distance of vectors `p` and `q`.
---
angiogenesis.dkfz.de
penrose(p, q)
Penrose Shape distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Penrose shape distance of vectors `p` and `q`.
---
angiogenesis.dkfz.de
meehl(p, q)
Meehl distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` Vector with first numeric distribution.
q (float ) : `array` Vector with second numeric distribution.
Returns: Meehl distance of vectors `p` and `q`.
---
angiogenesis.dkfz.de
edit(x, y)
Edit (aka Levenshtein) distance for indexed strings.
Parameters:
x (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
y (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
Returns: Number of deletions, insertions, or substitutions required to transform source string into target string.
---
generated description:
The Edit distance is a measure of similarity used to compare two strings. It is defined as the minimum number of
operations (insertions, deletions, or substitutions) required to transform one string into another. The operations
are performed on the characters of the strings, and the cost of each operation depends on the specific algorithm
used.
The Edit distance is widely used in various applications such as spell checking, text similarity, and machine
translation. It can also be used for other purposes like finding the closest match between two strings or
identifying the common prefixes or suffixes between them.
---
github.com
www.red-gate.com
planetcalc.com
lee(x, y, dsize)
Distance between two indexed strings of equal length.
Parameters:
x (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
y (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
dsize (int) : `int` Dictionary size.
Returns: Distance between two strings by accounting for dictionary size.
---
www.johndcook.com
hamming(x, y)
Distance between two indexed strings of equal length.
Parameters:
x (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
y (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
Returns: Length of different components on both sequences.
---
en.wikipedia.org
jaro(x, y)
Distance between two indexed strings.
Parameters:
x (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
y (int ) : `array` Indexed array.
Returns: Measure of two strings' similarity: the higher the value, the more similar the strings are.
The score is normalized such that `0` equates to no similarities and `1` is an exact match.
---
rosettacode.org
mahalanobis(p, q, VI)
Mahalanobis distance between two vectors with population inverse covariance matrix.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
VI (matrix) : `matrix` Inverse of the covariance matrix.
Returns: The mahalanobis distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
people.revoledu.com
stat.ethz.ch
docs.scipy.org
fidelity(p, q)
Fidelity distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The Bhattacharyya Coefficient between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
en.wikipedia.org
bhattacharyya(p, q)
Bhattacharyya distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The Bhattacharyya distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
en.wikipedia.org
hellinger(p, q)
Hellinger distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The hellinger distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
en.wikipedia.org
jamesmccaffrey.wordpress.com
kumar_hassebrook(p, q)
Kumar Hassebrook distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The Kumar Hassebrook distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
github.com
jaccard(p, q)
Jaccard distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The Jaccard distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
github.com
sorensen(p, q)
Sorensen distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
Returns: The Sorensen distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
people.revoledu.com
chi_square(p, q, eps)
Chi Square distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
eps (float)
Returns: The Chi Square distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
uw.pressbooks.pub
stats.stackexchange.com
www.itl.nist.gov
kulczynsky(p, q, eps)
Kulczynsky distance between provided vectors.
Parameters:
p (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
q (float ) : `array` 1D Vector.
eps (float)
Returns: The Kulczynsky distance between vectors `p` and `q`.
---
github.com
MACDh with divergences & impulse system (overlayed on prices)-----------------------------------------------------------------
General Description:
This indicator ( the one on the top panel above ) consists on some lines, arrows and labels drawn over the price bars/candles indicating the detection of regular divergences between price and the classic MACD histogram (shown on the low panel). This script is special because it can be adjusted to fit several criteria when trading divergences filtering them according to the "height" and "width" of the patterns. The script also includes the "extra features" Impulse System and Keltner Channels, which you will hardly find anywhere else in similar classic MACD histogram divergence indicators.
The indicator helps to find trend reversals, and it works on any market, any instrument, any timeframe, and any market condition (except against really strong trends that do not show any other sign of reversion yet).
Please take on consideration that divergences should be taken with caution.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Definition of classic Bullish and Bearish divergences:
* Bearish divergences occur in uptrends identifying market tops. A classical or regular bearish divergence occurs when prices reach a new high and then pull back, with an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) dropping below its zero line. Prices stabilize and rally to a higher high, but the oscillator reaches a lower peak than it did on a previous rally.
In the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), in area X (around August 2021), NKE rallied to a new bull market high and MACD-Histogram rallied with it, rising above its previous peak and showing that bulls were extremely strong. In area Y, MACD-H fell below its centerline and at the same time prices punched below the zone between the two moving averages. In area Z, NKE rallied to a new bull market high, but the rally of MACD-H was feeble, reflecting the bulls’ weakness. Its downtick from peak Z completed a bearish divergence, giving a strong sell signal and auguring a nasty bear market.
* Bullish divergences , in the other hand, occur towards the ends of downtrends identifying market bottoms. A classical (also called regular) bullish divergence occurs when prices and an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) both fall to a new low, rally, with the oscillator rising above its zero line, then both fall again. This time, prices drop to a lower low, but the oscillator traces a higher bottom than during its previous decline.
In the example in the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), you see a bearish divergence that signaled the October 2022 bear market bottom, giving a strong buy signal right near the lows. In area A, NKE (weekly charts) appeared in a free fall. The record low A of MACD-H indicated that bears were extremely strong. In area B, MACD-H rallied above its centerline. Notice the brief rally of prices at that moment. In area C, NKE slid to a new bear market low, but MACD-H traced a much more shallow low. Its uptick completed a bullish divergence, giving a strong buy signal.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Some cool features included in this indicator:
1. This indicator also includes the “ Impulse System ”. The Impulse System is based on two indicators, a 13-day exponential moving average and the MACD-Histogram, and identifies inflection points where a trend speeds up or slows down. The moving average identifies the trend, while the MACD-Histogram measures momentum. This unique indicator combination is color coded into the price bars for easy reference.
Calculation:
Green Price Bar: (13-period EMA > previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram > previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Red Price Bar: (13-period EMA < previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram < previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Price bars are colored blue when conditions for a Red Price Bar or Green Price Bar are not met. The MACD-Histogram is based on MACD(12,26,9).
The Impulse System works more like a censorship system. Green price bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising (you don't have permission to sell). A red price bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD Histogram are falling (you don't have permission to buy). A blue price bar indicates mixed technical signals, with neither buying nor selling pressure predominating (either both buying or selling are permitted).
2. Another "extra feature" included here is the " Keltner Channels ". Keltner Channels are volatility-based envelopes set above and below an exponential moving average.
3. It were also included a couple of EMAs.
Everything can be removed from the chart any time.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Options/adjustments for this indicator:
*Horizontal Distance (width) between two tops/bottoms criteria.
Refers to the horizontal distance between the MACH histogram peaks involved in the divergence
*Height of tops/bottoms criteria (for Histogram).
Refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the MACH HISTOGRAM peaks involved in the divergence: 1st Histogram Peak is X times the 2nd.
*Height/Vertical deviation of tops/bottoms criteria (for Price).
Deviation refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the PRICE peaks involved in the divergence.
*Plot Regular Bullish Divergences?.
*Plot Regular Bearish Divergences?.
*Delete Previous Cancelled Divergences?.
*Shows a pair of EMAs.
*Shows Keltner Channels (using ATR)
Keltner Channels are volatility-based envelopes set above and below an exponential moving average.
*This indicator also has the option to show the Impulse System over the price bars/candles.
MACDh with divergences & impulse system-----------------------------------------------------------------
General Description:
This indicator ( the one on the low panel ) is a classic MACD that also shows regular divergences between its histogram and the prices. This script is special because it can be adjusted to fit several criteria when trading divergences filtering them according to the "height" and "width" of the patterns. The script also includes the "extra feature" Impulse System, which you will hardly find anywhere else in similar classic MACD histogram divergence indicators.
The indicator helps to find trend reversals, and it works on any market, any instrument, any timeframe, and any market condition (except against really strong trends that do not show any other sign of reversion yet).
Please take on consideration that divergences should be taken with caution.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Definition of classic Bullish and Bearish divergences:
* Bearish divergences occur in uptrends identifying market tops. A classical or regular bearish divergence occurs when prices reach a new high and then pull back, with an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) dropping below its zero line. Prices stabilize and rally to a higher high, but the oscillator reaches a lower peak than it did on a previous rally.
In the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), in area X (around August 2021), NKE rallied to a new bull market high and MACD-Histogram rallied with it, rising above its previous peak and showing that bulls were extremely strong. In area Y, MACD-H fell below its centerline and at the same time prices punched below the zone between the two moving averages. In area Z, NKE rallied to a new bull market high, but the rally of MACD-H was feeble, reflecting the bulls’ weakness. Its downtick from peak Z completed a bearish divergence, giving a strong sell signal and auguring a nasty bear market.
* Bullish divergences , in the other hand, occur towards the ends of downtrends identifying market bottoms. A classical (also called regular) bullish divergence occurs when prices and an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) both fall to a new low, rally, with the oscillator rising above its zero line, then both fall again. This time, prices drop to a lower low, but the oscillator traces a higher bottom than during its previous decline.
In the example in the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), you see a bearish divergence that signaled the October 2022 bear market bottom, giving a strong buy signal right near the lows. In area A, NKE (weekly charts) appeared in a free fall. The record low A of MACD-H indicated that bears were extremely strong. In area B, MACD-H rallied above its centerline. Notice the brief rally of prices at that moment. In area C, NKE slid to a new bear market low, but MACD-H traced a much more shallow low. Its uptick completed a bullish divergence, giving a strong buy signal.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Extra feature: Impulse System
This indicator also includes the “ Impulse System ”. The Impulse System is based on two indicators, a 13-day exponential moving average and the MACD-Histogram, and identifies inflection points where a trend speeds up or slows down. The moving average identifies the trend, while the MACD-Histogram measures momentum. This unique indicator combination is color coded into the price bars or macd histogram bars for easy reference.
Calculation:
Green Price Bar: (13-period EMA > previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram > previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Red Price Bar: (13-period EMA < previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram < previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Histogram bars are colored blue when conditions for a Red Histogram Bar or Green Histogram Bar are not met. The MACD-Histogram is based on MACD(12,26,9).
The Impulse System works more like a censorship system. Green histogram bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising (you don't have permission to sell). A red histogram bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD Histogram are falling (you don't have permission to buy). A blue histogram bar indicates mixed technical signals, with neither buying nor selling pressure predominating (either both buying or selling are permitted).
The impulse system can be removed from the chart any time.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Options/adjustments for this indicator:
*Horizontal Distance (width) between two tops/bottoms criteria.
Refers to the horizontal distance between the MACH histogram peaks involved in the divergence
*Height of tops/bottoms criteria (for Histogram).
Refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the MACH HISTOGRAM peaks involved in the divergence: 1st Histogram Peak is X times the 2nd.
*Height/Vertical deviation of tops/bottoms criteria (for Price).
Deviation refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the PRICE peaks involved in the divergence.
*Plot Regular Bullish Divergences?.
*Plot Regular Bearish Divergences?.
*Delete Previous Cancelled Divergences?.
*This indicator also has the option to show the Impulse System over the MACD histogram bars
Cobra's CryptoMarket VisualizerCobra's Crypto Market Screener is designed to provide a comprehensive overview of the top 40 marketcap cryptocurrencies in a table\heatmap format. This indicator incorporates essential metrics such as Beta, Alpha, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Omega Ratio, Z-Score, and Average Daily Range (ADR). The table utilizes cell coloring resembling a heatmap, allowing for quick visual analysis and comparison of multiple cryptocurrencies.
The indicator also includes a shortened explanation tooltip of each metric when hovering over it's respected cell. I shall elaborate on each here for anyone interested.
Metric Descriptions:
1. Beta: measures the sensitivity of an asset's returns to the overall market returns. It indicates how much the asset's price is likely to move in relation to a benchmark index. A beta of 1 suggests the asset moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 implies the asset is more volatile, and a beta less than 1 suggests lower volatility.
2. Alpha: is a measure of the excess return generated by an investment compared to its expected return, given its risk (as indicated by its beta). It assesses the performance of an investment after adjusting for market risk. Positive alpha indicates outperformance, while negative alpha suggests underperformance.
3. Sharpe Ratio: measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment or portfolio. It evaluates the excess return earned per unit of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, as it reflects a higher return for each unit of volatility or risk.
4. Sortino Ratio: is a risk-adjusted measure similar to the Sharpe ratio but focuses only on downside risk. It considers the excess return per unit of downside volatility. The Sortino ratio emphasizes the risk associated with below-target returns and is particularly useful for assessing investments with asymmetric risk profiles.
5. Omega Ratio: measures the ratio of the cumulative average positive returns to the cumulative average negative returns. It assesses the reward-to-risk ratio by considering both upside and downside performance. A higher Omega ratio indicates a higher reward relative to the risk taken.
6. Z-Score: is a statistical measure that represents the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean of a dataset. In finance, the Z-score is commonly used to assess the financial health or risk of a company. It quantifies the distance of a company's financial ratios from the average and provides insight into its relative position.
7. Average Daily Range: ADR represents the average range of price movement of an asset during a trading day. It measures the average difference between the high and low prices over a specific period. Traders use ADR to gauge the potential price range within which an asset might fluctuate during a typical trading session.
Utility:
Comprehensive Overview: The indicator allows for monitoring up to 40 cryptocurrencies simultaneously, providing a consolidated view of essential metrics in a single table.
Efficient Comparison: The heatmap-like coloring of the cells enables easy visual comparison of different cryptocurrencies, helping identify relative strengths and weaknesses.
Risk Assessment: Metrics such as Beta, Alpha, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Omega Ratio offer insights into the risk associated with each cryptocurrency, aiding risk assessment and portfolio management decisions.
Performance Evaluation: The Alpha, Sharpe Ratio, and Sortino Ratio provide measures of a cryptocurrency's performance adjusted for risk. This helps assess investment performance over time and across different assets.
Market Analysis: By considering the Z-Score and Average Daily Range (ADR), traders can evaluate the financial health and potential price volatility of cryptocurrencies, aiding in trade selection and risk management.
Features:
Reference period optimization, alpha and ADR in particular
Source calculation
Table sizing and positioning options to fit the user's screen size.
Tooltips
Important Notes -
1. The Sharpe, Sortino and Omega ratios cell coloring threshold might be subjective, I did the best I can to gauge the median value of each to provide more accurate coloring sentiment, it may change in the future.
The median values are : Sharpe -1, Sortino - 1.5, Omega - 20.
2. Limitations - Some cryptos have a Z-Score value of NaN due to their short lifetime, I tried to overcome this issue as with the rest of the metrics as best I can. Moreover, it limits the time horizon for replay mode to somewhere around Q3 of 2021 and that's with using the split option of the top half, to remain with the older cryptos.
3. For the beginner Pine enthusiasts, I recommend scimming through the script as it serves as a prime example of using key features, to name a few : Arrays, User Defined Functions, User Defined Types, For loops, Switches and Tables.
4. Beta and Alpha's benchmark instrument is BTC, due to cryptos volatility I saw no reason to use SPY or any other asset for that matter.
