US 10 Yr Yield Fair ValueI calculate a fair value of the US 10 year yield applying a rolling regression (default 15 periods) with 2 different ratios.
Entry of long and short are based on differ and exit are based if yield high/low price is below/above the fair value -/+ 1 std dev.
Exit when long is based on if short is indicated or yield is inside the boundary of the FV value (+/-5% of FV for example)
Exit when short is when long is indicated.
Analisi trend
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & RSIThis is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The RSI is a very popular indicator that follows price activity.
It calculates an average of the positive net changes, and an average
of the negative net changes in the most recent bars, and it determines
the ratio between these averages. The result is expressed as a number
between 0 and 100. Commonly it is said that if the RSI has a low value,
for example 30 or under, the symbol is oversold. And if the RSI has a
high value, 70 for example, the symbol is overbought.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Monthly Returns in PineScript StrategiesI'm not 100% satisfied with the strategy performance output I receive from TradingView. Quite often I want to see something that is not available by default. I usually export raw trades/metrics from TradingView and then do additional analysis manually.
But with tables, you can build additional metrics and tools for your strategies quite easily.
This script will just show a table with monthly/yearly performance of your script. Quite a lot of traders/investors used to look at returns like that. Also, it might help you to identify periods of time when your strategy performed good/bad than expected and try to analyze that better.
The script is very simple and I believe you can easily apply it to your own strategies.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Chanu Delta StrategyThis strategy is built on the Chanu Delta Indicator, which indicates the strength of the Bitcoin market. When the Chanu Delta Indicator hits “Delta_bull” and “Delta_bear” and closes the candle, long and short signals are triggered respectively. The example shown on the screen is a default setting optimized for a 4-hour candlestick strategy based on the Bybit BTCUSDT futures market. For the 15-minute candle, "Delta_bull=32", "Delta_bear=-31", "Source=hlc3" are best. You can use it by adjusting the setting value and modifying it to suit you.
If you use this strategy in conjunction with the Chanu Delta Indicator, it is convenient to anticipate alert signals in advance. Since the Chanu Delta Indicator represents the price difference based on the Bybit BTCUSDT futures market, backtesting is possible from March 2020.
High/Low Channel Multi averages Crypto Swing strategyThis is a swing strategy designed for trending markets such as crypto and stock, with big timeframes , like 8h.
For this strategy we take SMA, EMA, VWMA, ALMA, SMMA, LSMA and VWMA and make an apply them all to both HIGH and LOW separately and make 2 averages, 1 applied to high and the other applied to low.
With them we make a channel.
Rules for entry
For long: close of a candle is above avg applied to high.
For short: close of a candle is below avg applied to low.
Rules for exit
We exit when we either hit TP or SL or when we receive a different condition than the entry one.(long- > short and viceversa)
If you have any questions, let me know !
Swing/Scalper HULL + T3 avg Crypto StrategyThis is a both a swing and a scalper strategy(depends on the timeframe that you use), that works with all timeframes, however I noticed that with swing 3h works the best on most crypto pairs, such as ETH, BTC and so on.
Its main components are:
Hull moving average
T3 moving average
Risk management
With them I make an average and use it as the main moving average.
Rules for entry
For long: Average moving average is bigger than previous average moving average value.
For short:Average moving average is lower than previous average moving average value.
Rules for exit
We exit when either the TP/SL has been hit, or when we get a different condition than previous one(both for long and short).
If you have any questions, let me know !
Aggresive Scalper/Swing Crypto StrategyThis is a simple yet very efficient scalper long strategy adapted for low timeframes for crypto. Can also be used with bigger timeframes as a swinger.
Its main components are:
Price oscillator swing
Vortex
Risk management for TP/SL
Rules for entry
We calculate the difference between the oscillator from the lowest low and the highest high. If the difference is positive, its a long potential. If its negative we exit from the long trade.
At the same time we check that the we have a crossover between the VIP vortex with the VIM vortex part.
Lastly we check that the current candle is bigger the second previous high.
Rules for exit
If we reach the take profit or the stop loss.
If we have a negative difference betwee LL and HH and VIP vortex crossunder with VIM vortex .
In this example I aimed for a 1:10 risk reward ratio, meaing that for every dollar lost, we will gain 10 when we win. Thus having a 10% minimum win rate will give us a profit over many trades.
If you have any questions, let me know !
Swing Trader-Pro V2The strategy- what is it?
This indicator is designed from a theory created by myself in order to distinguish a correction from an impulse. This comes down to the ability to compare "x" range of candles to "y" range of candles and highlight key differences to then correctly portray that the most recent move in price will be (or is) a correction.
Following this theory, we all understand that corrections don't go with the trend right? So this means at some point, there is a high probability of a rejection somewhere in this most recent move, that will ultimately push price higher or lower as it continues back with the trend. Therefore, through extensive quantitative research and back-testing, we are able to highlight areas of high-probability rejections within these supposed corrections.
How does it work?
Firstly, we need to establish a high and low point (using pivots ) that help us decide what the state is of the recent move between the high and low (we call this "point A" and "point B"). So we can only consider whether the recent move in price was an impulse or a correction until the move from "point B" to "point C" is made. But before that, once we have identified "Point A" and "point B", we use 2 (supposedly) strong levels which help integrate a box onscreen and thus, indicate this area of high liquidity. This box will continue to adjust according to the change of pivots (if price keeps creating HH's & HL's or LH's & LL's depending on market trend). But if we establish a strong high and low and price stays within this range, then the box will remain in place.
The default color of the box is red; the only time the color of the box will change is when:
- Price retraces from the high/low back to the box (price has to touch the box)
AND
-If any of our confirmations indicate a successful correction based on our theory.
So the box color varies:
- Red = very weak (or) no entry = no confirmations were made
- Yellow = weak entry = some but not all confirmations were made
- Green = strong entry = all confirmations have indicated that the move from "point B" to "point C" (remember that "point C" is where the box is) is a correction when compared with the move from "point A" to "point B"
These confirmations are all validated on the same candle during live candle activity (not when the candle has closed on the box). As this happens, the confirmations will determine the state of entry quality as soon as price touches the box.
In this time, we will see a new orange label highlighting what indicators have confirmed a successful correction and what haven't.
The label shows the different confirmation indicators in which we have provided different names (as this is the secret we intend to keep). So we have:
- "CC"
- "B1/B2"
- "B3"
Usually, we will see either an "OK" or "NOT OK" next to each confirmation indicator. This just tells us whether they have confirmed or not. Please note that this "point C" label does not stay permanently, regardless of the state of entry quality. The label will in fact stay on the screen until the next box has been generated, which is usually a few candles after the entry has been triggered.
Entries, SL's and TP's
This indicator shows the user an area of high-probability rejection. So in terms of specifying a precise entry, you're completely free to enter on the following:
- the moment price touches the box (depending on what color it is of course)
- the other end of the box (if you would like to catch a "sniper entry")
- or if price pierces the entire box and is still green, you can wait to see if price comes back through the box (which indicates a false breakout).
As for Stop-losses, i would recommend:
- Long entries: set your SL at the recent low (this should be "point A")
- Short entries: set your SL to the recent high (this should be "point A" as well, because if you're switching from the "long entry" setting to the "short entry" setting, the indicator labels flip around and are the opposite of what they are for long entries).
For Take profits, this is entirely up to the user. Because some entries will allow you to have great RR ratios depending on how you manage the active trades. Some recommendations below:
- Set TP to "point B" pivot
- Use trailing stop function or something similar if available
- Add other indicators such as the RSI and close when price reaches key levels
- When price shows signs of exhaustion or early stages of reversal then just close
Additional information and recommendations
- This works on any time frame and on any financial market, whether you prefer Forex, stocks, crypto, commodities , etc.
- In regards to trade direction, you can change in the settings to look for either long or short positions in the market. I would recommend using it in favor of the overall trend of the markets because you will find a lot better entries. Although, this does work against the trend at times as well. Additionally, this tool also works in consolidating markets which is beneficial.
- After becoming used to the script, i would say to apply it twice to your screen and have one looking for Long entries and the other looking for Short entries.
- As the user, you have the ability to remove the labels in the parameter settings (because it does look quite messy onscreen, especially if you have both long and short entries on at the same time). I would only personally show the labels when price hits the current box to see what confirmations have been identified.
- I will also provide the best parameters to use. You will only need one set of parameters for each long and short setting, as these parameters are universal for any time frame and any financial market.
FIRST UPDATE
After extensive back testing using our first version, we found that in fact, there are some great opportunities being wasted as the entry box stays red. This is due to some series of market structure that don't always fit our theory of continuations within the market. We found that although our theory is accurate, the amount of times the market fits this is more rare than times when price follows sequences. When we look for sequences in the market instead of specifying differences between impulses and corrections, we actually see areas of serious repetitiveness, thanks to how our indicator initially generates. Not how it confirms. So, understanding this new theory through one component of our previous indicator, we are still able to keep boxes at the same area yet accurately confirm more profitable entries external to our full previous strategy.
Moving towards the practical side of things:
-Make sure "add extra confirmation" parameter is selected, as this will allow the indicator to search for more valid entries rather than just our normal confirmations. (this is a tick box).
- Default parameters are already set for both C1 and C2
In a simple sense, this update is added to find more confirmations to turn more red boxes into green boxes based on other theories outside of our original one. How we do this exactly is part of the mystery.
SECOND UPDATE
- Fibonacci based moving average: using elements of the Fibonacci sequence and its relevance to being a hot-spot in price activity, we have integrated this into a moving average which is stronger than your usual MA. Here, you will notice it showing stronger signs of rejecting price, especially when trending. Hence, this is extremely useful to implement into your strategy as part of the trend identification. When price is consolidating, depending on how volatile or close-in the waves are during these periods, the FMA is similar to your typical MA, so therefore not so good. But the overall intention of this is to enhance your conclusion to whether price is trending and whether price is bullish or bearish.
- This is now a strategy, not just an indicator: So now we can choose from a huge variety of parameters in accordance to what ones work best with what pair, or time frame. The typical parameters to change would be the entry points, stop losses and take profits. We have also added in a "SL to entry" option. ALL PARAMETERS ARE FIBONACCI LEVELS AS THIS MAKES IT UNIVERSAL TO ANY PAIR/ TIME FRAME.
- Move the entry boxes : So this is very useful for certain pairs and mainly to help the user understand key sequences on a quantitative level. Sometimes we can notice that pairs spike higher than the typical entry (0.618) so we have allowed flexibility to the point where you can alter the box appearance to either the 0.618 level (default), 0.786 and the 0.9 level.
- Back-testing: Now the user can back-test the strategy and see the performance within any financial market you add this to! Please note that according to the strategy, once a trade is placed, it wont enter any more trades when the current one is still active. I have requested to change this, but it is out of our development team's reach. However, this doesn't discredit what the system can help you achieve, as you will still be able to find profitable parameters within the financial markets.
Strategy default properties
Backtest start: this date is when you would like to start the backtest, however, the indicator will go as far as the data can be read
Backtest end: choose your date to end the back test.
Trade session: choose the trading session you want this strategy to work on.
Filter by session: you can filter the backtested results depending on whether you want the strategy to take trades within the chosen trading session.
Filter by Fibonacci moving average: select this if you would like for the back tested results to consider whether the valid trade setups are in accordance to what the FMA displays (Bullish or Bearish). This is deselected.
Fibonacci Moving Average Timeframe: here you can select what timeframe you would like the FMA to work on, default is the “same as chart” button/ option.
TraderDirection: choose whether you would like LONG or SHORT entries for the indicator to find.
Max risk per trade: choose the risk setting per trade, i would suggest lowering this to 1% ((MODERATOR) This is the default setting!)
EntryFib: choose between the options as to where you would like the strategy to enter positions, the default is the 0.618 zone which is the closest side of the box to price. You will also see that when you choose to change this, the boxes on your screen will move accordingly. A very helpful function!
StopFib: choose your Stop Loss based on the same Fibonacci level as what you choose for your entry, remember that the higher the fib level, the higher (or safer) your Stop Loss is from price spiking. It all comes down to preference.
TakeProfitFib: choose your Take Profit based on the same Fibonacci level as what you choose for your entry, remember that the lower the fib level, the higher your Take Profit is again, It all comes down to preference.
BreakevenFib: the default setting is on “disabled” however when you select a certain Fibonacci level, once price reaches there during the active trade, your Stop Loss will be set to entry, this function is designed to stop volatile price fluctuations rendering your in-profit trade result to hitting your Stop Loss and losing when it closes out.
Hull Crossover Strategy no TP or SLWhat is it?
A simple yet effective strategy ran on the 30m chart.
This is a basic idea that can be expanded on using different indicator to either add signals or filter out certain bad signals!
The strategy consists of 1 fast moving average and 1 slow moving average.
Both of these moving averages are the Hull Moving Average
What is the Hull Moving Average?
The Hull Moving Average ( HMA ) is a directional trend indicator.
It captures the current market conditions and uses recent price action to determine if conditions are bullish or bearish relative to historical data.
The Hull is different from traditional trend indicators like the EMA and the SMA .
It is designed to reduce the lag often associated with other MAs by providing a faster signal on a smoother visual plane.
How it works?
When the fast HMA crosses over the slow HMA , we initiate a long signal, and
when the fast HMA crosses under the slow HMA , we initiate a short signal.
Conclusion
The power of simplicity is what makes this such a great core to use to build onto making something even better!
The results were optimised to suit the most common market conditions seen today.
******** Not financial advice! ********
Triple Supertrend + Stoch RSI + 200 EMA by @DaviddTechInspired by YouTube (again) I decided to backtest this strategy.
Here is my Triple Supertrend + Stoch RSI + 200 EMA v0.1 --
The Strategy :
Uses the 3 supertrends.
200 EMA
Stoch RSI
-- LONG --
* When over 200 ema and a Stoch RSI Cross happens below the oversold 20 then we wait for the 2 or 3 Supertrends to pass to green.
-- SHORT --
* When under 200 ema and a Stoch RSI Cross happens above the overbrought 80 then we wait for the 2 or 3 Supertrends to pass to red.
NOTES :
This was proven to be much better on manually backtesting. So, if you do spot a problem please DM me.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only - My mission is to debunk fake strategies with code to find THE ONE.
- Plots EMAs and other values on chart.
- This script to change bars colors.
8 Whittle DownThe system is designed to short on directionally negative instruments like VXX & SQQQ
The system only shorts, no longs
It enters a pilot position if the system has no trades open at the time is in the late afternoon
It uses a 200-day moving average as a filter and will only short if the price is below the 200 day moving average
The pilot position will only enter with 1/3 ( one third ) of the total expected position size
StopLossPerc sets the stop loss, (1.15) means it is set to a 15% stop loss. -- The Red Line
The system will buy additional shares for a full position if the pilot piston profit target was not reached
The full shares position is set to purchase at a higher price. T2EntTrgPerc sets the buy percentage target for the additional shares. -- The Yellow Line
Each entry has different settable profit targets. T1ProfTrgPerc sets the profit target for the first trade (0.95) is basically set to a 5% profit.
T2ProfTrgPerc sets the profit target for the second trade (0.90) is basically set to a 10% profit. -- The White Line
RED LINE == STOP LOSS LINE
GREENLINE == PROFIT TARGET FOR THE 1ST TRADE
YELLOW LINE == ADD ON SHARES TO THE TRADE
WHITE LINE == PROFIT TARGET FOR THE 1st & 2nd TRADE COMBINED
Let me know if you have any questions and I'll try to clarify
PSAR + MACD + 200 EMA by @DaviddTechIndicators used for this
200 EMA
MACD
PSAR
To take a Long Entry
* Price above the 200 EMA
* PSAR long entry signal
* Both MACD and signal line below 0
* MACD crossover
To take a Short Entry
* Price below the 200 EMA
* PSAR short entry signal
* Both MACD and signal line above 0
* MACD crossunder
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only - My mission is to debunk fake strategies with code to find THE ONE.
- Plots EMAs and other values on chart.
- This script to change bars colors.
Multi Time Frame Heiken Ashi Candles by @DaviddTechMulti Time Frame Heiken Ashi Candles Visual Strategy.
Inspired by a video on YouTube by TradePro I decided to backtest this strategy.
The Strategy : This strategy waits for all the lines to cross green or red to look for a an entry.
It seems to give good results on the 15 minute timeframe.
1. The Cloud - Confirmed with no repainting.
2. The Lines may repaint as the price movement changes.
Confluence with the RSI STOCHASTIC.
If you use the RSI STOCHASTIC you have 2 options.
1. Super Scalper - Where the strategy will enter on every cross <> the two levels.
2. Longer positions - One entry is made where the RSI STOCHASTIC the closest to the GREEN/RED Star.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- Plots EMAs and other values on chart.
- This script to change bars colors.
ADX + BB %B + AO + EMA by @DaviddTechThis trading strategy combines different indicators:
1) ADX , Average Directional Movement to make sure we are in a trend.
2) BB %B Bollinger Band %B: to spots relative price position to Bollinger Bands
3) AO Awesome Oscillator for momentum - you will need to configure this to fit the pair.
4) EMA 5, EMA 21, EMA 50, EMA 200: crossovers to get our entry short or long & trend direction
This script was inspired by TraderPro - Crazy 78% Win Rate Proven Trading Strategy Revealed - ADX + BB %B + AO + EMA
My settings are pretty much as default.
- I have added a 10,000 USD default
- 7% of portfolio is used to create the results.
You can of course optimize all of this in the settings.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- Plots EMAs and other values on chart.
- This script to change bars colors.
FTRS PROThe script works differently on different time frame. Works best in 1 min time frame. The script take advantage on ichimoku cloud for trend analysis, RSI for 2nd trend identification and a custom command to identify point of entry for the market bias. This is NOT a counter trend strategy, it is purely to capture the market bias on the chart. User able to customize based on their preferences risk to reward ratio and play along with user's own risk appetite.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Awesome Oscillator (AO) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This indicator is based on Bill Williams` recommendations from his book
"New Trading Dimensions". We recommend this book to you as most useful reading.
The wisdom, technical expertise, and skillful teaching style of Williams make
it a truly revolutionary-level source. A must-have new book for stock and
commodity traders.
The 1st 2 chapters are somewhat of ramble where the author describes the
"metaphysics" of trading. Still some good ideas are offered. The book references
chaos theory, and leaves it up to the reader to believe whether "supercomputers"
were used in formulating the various trading methods (the author wants to come across
as an applied mathemetician, but he sure looks like a stock trader). There isn't any
obvious connection with Chaos Theory - despite of the weak link between the title and
content, the trading methodologies do work. Most readers think the author's systems to
be a perfect filter and trigger for a short term trading system. He states a goal of
10%/month, but when these filters & axioms are correctly combined with a good momentum
system, much more is a probable result.
There's better written & more informative books out there for less money, but this author
does have the "Holy Grail" of stock trading. A set of filters, axioms, and methods which are
the "missing link" for any trading system which is based upon conventional indicators.
This indicator plots the oscillator as a histogram where periods fit for buying are marked
as blue, and periods fit for selling as red. If the current value of AC (Awesome Oscillator)
is over the previous, the period is deemed fit for buying and the indicator is marked blue.
If the AC values is not over the previous, the period is deemed fir for selling and the indicator
is marked red.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Stock trending strategy This is a long only strategy designed maily for stock markets and futures. In general it works best with 1h, however it can be optimized with other timeframes as well.
Components:
VWAP
MACD histogram
EMA 9
Rules for entry
Long :
For VWAP: close is above the vwap daily
EMA: close is above the moving average
MACD histogram is above 0
Short:
For VWAP: close is belowthe vwap daily
EMA: close is below the moving average
MACD histogram is below 0
Rules for exit
This strategy does not have any risk management inside. Instead it exits whenver it receives an opposite signal form the original one used for entry.
If you have any questions let me know !
Ichimoku with MACD/ CMF/ TSIThis is a very powerful trend strategy designed for markets such as stocks market , stock index and crypto.
For time frames I found out that 1h seems to do the trick.
Components:
Ichimoku full pack
MACD histogram
CMF oscillator
TSI oscillator
Rules for entry
Long :
For Ichimoku:Tenkan part of cloud is bigger than kijun, Chikou is above 0 , close of a candle is above the Senkou
MACD histogram is above 0
CMF oscillator is positive and bigger than 0.1
TSI oscillator is above 0
Short:
For Ichimoku:Tenkan part of cloud is smaller than kijun, Chikou is below 0 , close of a candle is belowthe Senkou
MACD histogram is below 0
CMF oscillator is negative and below -0.1
TSI oscillator is below 0
Rules for exit
This strategy does not have any risk management inside. Instead it exits whenver it receives an opposite signal form the original one used for entry.
If you have any questions let me know !
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Awesome Oscillator (AC) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This indicator plots the oscillator as a histogram where blue denotes
periods suited for buying and red . for selling. If the current value
of AO (Awesome Oscillator) is above previous, the period is considered
suited for buying and the period is marked blue. If the AO value is not
above previous, the period is considered suited for selling and the
indicator marks it as red.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Rosebud Trend Backtest [DepthHouse]*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results*
*Strategy created for backtesting purposes only.
*Backtesting assesses the viability of a trading strategy or pricing model by discovering how it would have played out retrospectively using historical data.
* Please be sure to read all updates below as the information below could change with future updates.
Rosebud Trend Indicator uses complex range calculations to easily detect trend changes, critical support and resistance levels, and even aid in spotting reversals. The Critical Support & Resistance Zones are plotted via the red and green cloud. This cloud not only visually displays the expected trend direction but often acts as major support and resistance zones. The outer band measures the expected range in which the assets trade over longer periods of time.
The Rosebud Trend Backtest combines the calculations of the ATR Auto Oscillator & the Rosebud Trend Indicator to demonstrate backtest performance.
// Settings //
Users can switch the ‘ Trend Sensitivity ’ between ‘ Low ', ' Med ', and ‘ High ’ to increase or decrease the rate at which the cloud changes.
By altering the S/R Band Thickness users can furthermore increase or decrease the rate at which a trend changes by altering the thickness of the cloud. Default is .50 however this can be lowered if needed.
Bar colors are generated by a combination of Rosebuds primary function and our ATR AUTO Oscillator base functions. Users have 3 bar color options to select from: Simple, Complex, and Off.
Simple: Bars colors alternate between shades of red and green based on the trend direction and the ATR Auto strength. The stronger the shade, the stronger the trend.
Complex: This adds a few extra variables to the script which generates a more complex bar color display. Using this option, Rosebud will generate light red bars in a bull trend if downward movement is strong and vice versa in a bear trend. It also will generate a purple bar if the candle successfully closes above or below the Top & Bottom Range Bands; We call this a range break, and it could be an early sign of strong upward or downward movement.
Off: In case you like to keep things even simpler, this option hides all overlay bar colors.
ATR Options: Used for Light & Strong Entries/Exits // Bar Colors also based on these settings
ATR Smoothed Signal Option: Turns advance smoothing on or off. On will reduce signal noise, while Off could land you that perfect bottom signal with a lower success rate.
ATR Candlestick Length: Default factor for bar color and shape generation, the higher the number the fewer signals that will generate.
ATR Candlestick Smoothing: Default smoothing for the Candlestick Length
Signal Lookback: Adjust the factor at which Bull, Bear, Up, and Down. Lower this to 2 for more signals.
// ⇅ BackTest Settings ⇅ //
Short Trading: Option to see backtest results for both long and short positions. Default is Long Only.
Strategy Entry Options:
Trend Only: Positions are entered right as there is a cloud trend change.
Light Entry: This enters a trade as soon as there is a breakout or breakdown signal generated from the ATR settings.
Strong Entry: Multiple conditions must be met; Price action must be near the Trend Base and must receive either a bullish or bearish crossover in the oversold or overbought range of the ATR Settings.
Strategy Exit Options:
Trend Only: Exits all positions after there is a primary trend change.
Light Exit: Exits a user set percentage of open positions when the ATR generates a breakdown or breakout. Will continue to do this at each occurrence. Presets are built in to keep these from triggering too often in volatile conditions.
Strong Exit: Exits a user set percentage of open positions when the ATR generates a bullish or bearish crossover in the overbought or oversold ranges. Will continue to do this with each occurrence. Presets are built in to keep these from triggering too often in volatile conditions.
Profit Points: Exits a set percentage of the position up to 3 times at a user set percentage gap from the entry. Any remaining amount in the position exits upon a trend change.
Profit QTY Percent: Percent of the position to exit when an exit condition triggers. This does not apply to the “Trend Only” exit option.
Profit Percent Gap: Percent gap for Profit Point Exits. Recommend adjusting based on timeframe. See example below.
Random Entries Work!" tHe MaRkEtS aRe RaNdOm ", say moron academics.
The purpose of this study is to show that most markets are NOT random! Most markets show a clear bias where we can make such easy money, that a random number generator can do it.
=== HOW THE INDICATOR WORKS ===
The study will randomly enter the market
The study will randomly exit the market if in a trade
You can choose a Long Only, Short Only, or Bidirectional strategy
=== DEFAULT VALUES AND THEIR LOGIC ===
Percent Chance to Enter Per Bar: 10%
Percent Chance to Exit Per Bar: 3%
Direction: Long Only
Commission: 0
Each bar has a 10% chance to enter the market. Each bar has a 3% to exit the market . It will only enter long.
I included zero commission for simplification. It's a good exercise to include a commission/slippage to see just how much trading fees take from you.
=== TIPS ===
Increasing "Percent Chance to Exit" will shorten the time in a trade. You can see the "Avg # Bars In Trade" go down as you increase. If "Percent Chance to Exit" is too high, the study won't be in the market long enough to catch any movement, possibly exiting on the same bar most of the time.
If you're getting the red screen, that means the strategy lost so much money it went broke. Try reducing the percent equity on the Properties tab.
Switch the start year to avoid/minimize black swan events like the covid drop in 2020.
=== FINDINGS ===
Most markets lose money with a "Random" direction strategy.
Most markets lose ALL money with a "Short Only" strategy.
Most markets make money with a "Long Only" strategy.
Try this strategy on: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the NASDAQ (QQQ).
There are two popular memes right now: "Bitcoin to the moon" and "Stocks only go up". Both are seemingly true. Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the 2010's, gaining several billion percent in gains. The stock market is on a 100 year long uptrend. Why? BECAUSE FIAT CURRENCIES ALWAYS GO DOWN! This is inflation. If we measure the market in terms of others assets instead of fiat, the Long Only strategy doesn't work anymore (or works less well).
Try this strategy on: Bitcoin/GLD (BTCUSD/GLD), the Eurodollar (EURUSD), and the S&P 500 measured in gold (SPY/GLD).
Bitcoin measured in gold (BTCUSD/GLD) still works with a Long Only strategy because Bitcoin increased in value over both USD and gold.
The Eurodollar (EURUSD) generally loses money no matter what, especially if you add any commission. This makes sense as they are both fiat currencies with similar inflation schedules.
Gold and the S&P 500 have gained roughly the same amount since ~2000. Some years will show better results for a long strategy, while others will favor a short strategy. Now look at just SPY or GLD (which are both measured in USD by default!) and you'll see the same trend again: a Long Only strategy crushes even when entering and exiting randomly.
=== " JUST TELL ME WHAT TO DO, YOU NERD! " ===
Bulls always win and Bears always lose because fiat currencies go to zero.
You're not underperforming a random number generator, are you?
Strategy TemplateTrying to include few basic things which is needed for strategy which can be used as template.
Few important components
Strategy parameters
Few important parameters include - initial_capital, default_qty_type, default_qty_value, commission_type, pyramiding and commission_value. All my strategies will have similar settings with initial captial set to 20000 to 100000. 100% of equity per trade with no pyramiding (set to 1) and minimal commission.
margin_long and margin_short can be used for leveraged trading. But, since we are not using pyramiding, it will make no effect.
Trade Limiting parameters
Two types of limiting is available in the scripts
Limiting trading direction : this is done through method strategy.risk.allow_entry_in and input parameter tradeDirection
Limiting trades to particular time window : This is achieved through adding start time and end time parameters of type input.time and check whether time is within this window
Custom Methods
customized security method to get higher timeframe data
customized moving average method to get moving average of any type
Custom Parameters
Moving average Type option list which I use quite often. Any strategy where there is need to use moving average, I try to scan through different moving average types and lengths to see which one is more appropriate for the given strategy. Hence, keeping this parameter in template to make it readily available when I start with new strategy
waitForCloseBeforeExit - this is used if trailing stop need to activated as soon as price hits the stop or only on close price. This is again something I switch quite often based on strategy. Hence, keeping this as part of the template.
Entry and Exit statements for long and short
These statements from line (57 to 62) can remain as is even with new strategy. Only thing to be set are variables - buyCondition, sellCondition, closeBuyCondition and closeSellCondition
Last but not the least
In pinescript, a long and short position cannot coexist in a strategy at any point of time. Any short positions created will automatically stop long positions and vice versa. Hence, it is important make short and long trades mutually exclusive. In this example, I have used 200 weekly moving average as trend bias. No short positions are taken when price is trading above 200 weekly moving average low/close and no long positions are taken when price is less than 200 weekly moving average high/close. Any rule built on top of this (In this case a simple supertrend rules) ensures that there are no conflicting signals and hence avoids confusing trades on the stratgy.
