See the Forest for the Trees - general note to myself

21 ago 2022

As per the title - this is just a note to myself, maybe to try and see the forest for the trees

Just picked out a few charts which maybe give some clues as to the wider state of the markets;

S&P stocks above the 50 day - have hit that 85-90 level, on a weekly basis they only seem to hold this level for 1-2 weeks before a sharp move down to 75 if not lower

US 10year - Rising Rate Environment continues to put pressure on stocks

NDX Futures - At the top of downward channel, breakout above channel failed, look set for a retest of 11,500 area (200 DMA)

ARK - In clear Downtrend, upward corrective move finished, looking set for another Impulse move down

Other factors which may be significant - Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine / Taiwan), Covid lockdowns in China affecting Supply chains, China property bubble

Jackson hole / VIX & VXN levels / Earnings Strength

1 set 2022

Nota

Stocks above 50 day have seen a 50% decline (from a high of 91 down to 40 currently) - this is a patterns that has played out many times in the last few months

Nasdaq futures are respecting that downward channel as highlighted which should be of major concern to investors.

10yr has bounced higher from the 2.7% region - albeit this move has not yet been as aggressive as I may have thought - however even if these grind higher, it will prove detrimental to stocks

ARK has continued moving lower, although again, the mov to the downside has not yet been as aggressive as predicted but there is still plenty of time.

22 set 2022

Nota

Note the bearish engulfing weekly candle on NDX futures (assuming there is no sharp rally to end the week!)
Stock above 50 day is in an interesting spot - it typically only hold below the 23% level for 2-3 weeks, lets see how long it holds below.