10/15/24 - $asml - buying sub $730 here...

15 ott

10/15/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: ASML
buying sub $730 here...

- booking drop. k
- "AI" is dead... nope
- one of the few hard to replace co's in the semi's space
- unclear where bottom is b/c the drop is so extreme. pods get rekt and need to deleverage
- 25x PE (on perhaps inflated EPS) still expensive
- but a good LT entry at this pt
- making it a 2% position to go - swingin' a bit on the big drop
- would make it closer to 3-5% as we get closer to the mid 600s
- stay safe.
- lol

V

16 ott

Nota

i suspect there could be more going on w/ asml than meets the eye and i don't think it will be known for some time. i'll probably cut the position tmr, ideally we get some sort of 1-2 or more % pity bounce. two points i'd make and will write about it on my asml post
1/ AI is probably ~10% of revenues of the entire company - which means that the read thru for names like nvda, avgo and even tsm are probably minimal. these names were likely down simply bc a 300 bn mcap company was -16% on the day and a lot of the big names are flows/ sit in the same ETFs. i'd expect all three of those to recover all else equal

2/ the suspicion i have is that someone has found a way to basically do lithography without the asml system. this is pure conjecture at this pt, but if it's true... the company has effectively lost it's monopoly. i think even in the 15-20% scenario this is true... the stock would be worth 30-50% less (before finding a real bottom). so if that's the case you're looking at 10-15% more downside all else equal in this weird probability analysis

3/ big names like INTL have publicly telegraphed their slowing capex cycle. big capex cycle for a lot of semis names were 2021-22 even '23. so shouldn't be a surprise there's some lack of ST demand here. fact that we're cutting '24 3Q and signaling lower '25 (asml that is) tells me there's still many "proof points" that will need to be borne out before the mkt will feel comfortable on the "right" EPS to derive it's multiple. so while you'll have some chopping around... unlikely we get a meaningful recover in the stock px (or it will perform a lot worse than the nvda > avgo > tsm complex)

the tl;dr here is... probably off my buddy list for the short term. as previously mentioned... i'm probably fishing in the mid 600s. but in the meanwhile i'll use any recursive bounce to add to nvda > avgo > tsm ... maybe even a lil amd in the meanwhile.

V