AUDJPY Short~Mid Term Bearish Mid~Long Bullish

4 giu 2018

Plotting idea for short strategies for this pair ATM.
Risk Reversals skewing to the downside.
Personally feel the one more downside leg to come with targets at 81.00 / 79.00 / 76.7 - will need large risk event to take this to this level.
Size of down leg to be determined but have yet to determine where market sentiment will lean more heavily on... DPK or Tariffs.
Recent price action suggests DPK event has more sway than tariffs for JPY pairs since there is always the TPP to buffer the impact of US sanctions to the Pacific nations.
Tariffs will have more bearing towards a bearish dollar than JPY so all eyes on the summit
More to come .....

5 giu 2018

Trade attivo

Will look to add short depending on price action, possible for a reattempt of 84.45~ handle so solid close after a retest at this level may justify additional shorts.
I'm wary of the up coming summit in Singapore but China will always continue to be the mid to long term regional strategic.
Will look to take some off at 82.9~ area if we get there before the summit

6 giu 2018

Nota

Rejected at 84.45 level but not seeing exhaustion at smaller time frames.
Could have been too early on this as weekly Head and shoulder is forming up which means upper bound targets for bulls will be 84.9 area.
Holding off on addition shorts for now

7 giu 2018

Nota

With AU econ calendar absent of big releases bar consumer confidence, commodities pricing will be the driver of AU pairs and risk events for the Yen.

7 giu 2018

Nota

30 Min MA squeeze broken lower for 200MA support @ 83.8 however 83.7 will be the true test where if cleared will pave the way for 83.2

10 giu 2018

Nota

Moving SL to break even and leaving this be - will take half off if this pair gaps down on NZ/AU open.

Unless there is a complete breakdown of talks at Singapore tomorrow, will be expecting this to be largely flat with spikes in volatility on any news that comes from this summit. The White House will surely be trumpeting any minuscule progress as ground breaking etc etc.
However after the G7 summit, am inclined to say that Trump's negotiation position has weakened somewhat however with the prospect of a Nobel, bragging rights and perpetual 'middle finger' to everyone in the Western world of achieving anything meaningful with Kim; not surprised if Trump goes limp to gain a 'win'.

Either all, high potential of event risk is undeniable for all Yen pairs.

14 giu 2018

Nota

SL was triggered but reenterred just below 84.
SL for new position equal to previous profits taken one Monday open so this is a 'no risk trade'.
Road is open to 81 IF price breaks 82.40 level but keeping mindful of upwards price moves back to 84.2 for further consolidation of a 4H pendent / flag.

19 giu 2018

Nota

Took half profit at 81 and setting trailing stop of 100 pips and leaving