Possible AUDUSD Short

Turning a little bearish on AUDUSD, reasons being:

commodities look a little more stable now, possibly with the news on ukraine no longer looking to join NATO and some semblance on a possible negotiation for ukraine and russia.

AUD has been a recent hedge for this situation, benefitting from the rally in commodities and so should see a move lower on any positive news on this.

a number of metrics for china are looking lower to me including the Hang Seng index, shangai composite and some property groups who are Australia's biggest importer of their terms of trade - the market may focus on this more once things start to settle.

sentiment to me looks like it is turning a tad lower.

AUDUSD held the longer term downtrend, i don't tend to use downtrends too much but they can be useful at times, also broke back below the 200 DMA.

There's also the fed meeting coming up soon, i think this could bring back the overall longer term narrative of RBA/fed policy divergence with the fed starting their hiking cycle and the RBA still waiting on higher wage growth.

Not trading/investment advise, just getting ideas out there. Would love some feedback!

Thanks