AVAX/USDT — Symmetrical Triangle Approaching Breakout?

Overview:
The daily chart shows AVAX forming a symmetrical triangle (converging trendlines) since the Dec–Jan peak. Price is now testing the upper resistance trendline (~26.1 USDT) — we’re at a critical point heading toward the apex (late September). Volume behavior and a confirmed daily candle close will be key to determining the breakout direction.

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1) Pattern Description

Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle — characterized by lower highs (descending resistance line from the peak) and higher lows (ascending support line from the April bottom). Price range is narrowing → volatility dropping → usually leads to a strong move when the pattern resolves.

Context: The broader trend before the triangle was bearish (drop from ~55.8). Symmetrical triangles can be neutral but often resolve in the direction of the prior trend — technical confirmation is essential.

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2) Key Levels (from chart)

Upper resistance trendline / critical level: ~26.10 USDT (red dashed line), current price ≈ 25.3 USDT.

Major resistance targets: 30.74, 35.62, 44.18, 53.70 – 55.80.

Ascending support trendline: around 18–22 USDT depending on timing.

Structural low: 14.665 USDT (chart low).
(Values estimated visually from chart — verify with live data before trading.)

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3) Bullish Scenario (if breakout upward)

Bullish Trigger

Daily close above descending trendline (~26.1) with strong volume → breakout confirmation.

Preferably supported by bullish technical indicators (RSI, MACD bullish crossover, rising OBV).


Targets

Step targets: 30.7 → 35.6 → 44.2 → 53.7 (partial profit-taking recommended).

Measured move theoretical target:
− Height ≈ 55.800 − 14.665 = 41.135.
− Added to breakout point (~26.108) → theoretical target ≈ 67.24 USDT (for reference, not guaranteed).


Risk Management

Stop-loss: daily close back below breakout trendline or under nearest swing low (e.g., conservative SL < 21–22 USDT).

Strategy: scale in — partial entry before breakout, add after confirmation. Monitor risk/reward closely.

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4) Bearish Scenario (if rejected / breakdown)

Bearish Trigger

Rejection at upper trendline + bearish daily candle (and/or rising sell volume) → drop to ascending support.

Breakdown confirmation: daily close below ascending trendline with strong volume.


Targets

Initial drop to ascending support ~18–22 USDT.

If breakdown continues → possible retest of 14.66 USDT low.


Risk Management for Shorts / Cut-loss

SL for shorts: daily close above resistance (~>28 USDT) or above fake breakout highs.

Beware of bull traps — volume confirmation reduces risk.

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5) Practical Trade Plans (example)

Conservative Long: Wait for daily close > 26.1 + strong volume → enter 50% position; add after retest. Targets: 30.7 / 35.6. SL under retest zone (~21–22).

Conservative Short: If clear rejection at upper trendline → short toward lower trendline. SL above recent high (~28).

Range Trading: Buy near lower trendline, sell near upper trendline until breakout confirmed.

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6) Risk & Confluence Checks

Broader market/Bitcoin sentiment: AVAX is often correlated, which can amplify moves.

Supporting indicators: check volume, RSI, MACD, EMA(50/200) for confirmation.

Watch for false breakouts — confirm with volume + retests.

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7) Summary

> AVAX is forming a Symmetrical Triangle. Critical resistance at ~26.1 USDT — daily close + volume will decide the next move. Valid breakout → step targets at 30.7 / 35.6 / 44.2 (measured move theoretical ~67.2). Rejection / breakdown → support at 18–22 and possible drop to 14.66. Manage risk with confirmation, stop-loss, and partial profit-taking.

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