BITx - Weekly Volatility Snapshot

1 giu

Good afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for BITX


IV (86.99%) entering the week sits in the 3rd percentile for the year. HV10 (60.22%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 47.87% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 87.65% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -26.77% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows.

I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with BTCUSD volatility and risk management.

Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect?

Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation.

If this week we find regression to HV63 (99.73%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about! This capture can be upwards 12.74% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat.

For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.

6 giu

Trade attivo

Good morning! What an interesting week it has been, right??

I wanted to update that I am still long on a hedged position 65c/52p by ratio I choose; in a type of calendar position way. I like a shorter term hedge at-the-money when volatility increases. My bias is and always will be long on BTC.

As of yesterday, HV10 (62.25%) and IV (83.10%) have inverted on the week. Where IV is putting in new lows on the year (0% IVp) and bi-weekly volatility trickling up.


Stay tuned.