Bitcoin Liquid IndexShort
Reply to ChrisCa93099037 @ Twitter
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BTC to not make a new ATH until Q4 2022 with ~220k top in Q1 2023?
Note w.r.t. 1.236 grey Fib ellipse BTC in 2019 got ahead of itself, then crashed back down to align with 2015. Ditto 2.0 blue Fib oval, BTC got ahead of itself Dec 2020. Now must crash back down and stay below purple 3.618 until Aug 29, 2022 at 36k. Note a bounce to ~60k by Mar 2022 after this incoming decline. Low to be perhaps ~18k by June 2022.
I can’t rule out 9.5k in 2022 for the low.
The two patterns $200+k Q1 2023 and 1.1m Q3 2024 suggests that the donations attack will be the former and only legacy BTC heads to 1.1m. Makes sense they do it on BIden’s (soon to be Kamala’s) tenure.
Btw, if I reposition the Fib circles (as ChrisCa93099037 had them on his Fib circles chart), then it makes no sense as it indicates the top should have already been hit in terms of time but not target price. So that is one reason I ruled out this alternative interpretation and positioned the Fib circles the way I did.
Added those Fib ellipses to my former chart and everything I had on it matched up perfectly. You can see my Fib interpretation also matches up very well to 2011 – 2013 cycle as well.
Expect massive disillusionment if PlanB’s expectations are shattered.
There’s no volume below ~29k. A volume spike around $25 – 26k which may provide first bounce. Below that no volume until ~20k. Significant volume not until ~10k.
Together with the ellipses and my other T/A, it appears that Bitcoin has entered a phase since 2019 of making higher highs and higher lows? 😲
Bitcoin keeps trying to make that hyperinflation move too soon, but then gets dragged back down to a lower more egregious low, e.g. March 2020.
So it would fit for BTC to crash now to ~$25 – 26k, then bounce again to ~60k, then crash to $10 – 20k, then finally breakout to 200k, but then donations attack down to those volume spikes near $0.
The donations attack will permanently destroy ~½ of BTC token supply (some months after attack when FATF declares this “stolen” tokens verboten). Halving supply cause the price to skyrocket later thus sustaining the exponentiation trend whilst non-legacy succumbs to natural S-curve (aka logistic) and Tulip mania.
Remember Panic Cycles of Socrates’ Forecast Arrays can mean both a spike low or high and then a volatile reaction reversal. The Fed will announce a taper in November. The U.S. government is only funded through early December, with unemployment payments ending. Dip in October was risk-off due to potential government shutdown, with perhaps some tax selling. Why not a more severe dip in Nov/Dec given that Republicans have said the compromise in Oct to extend govt funding was the last one, coupled with taper announcement, coupled with more frantic tax selling? That mini-crash should be enough political cover for moderate Democrats and/or lame-duck RINOs to break ranks and kick the can again on government funding. So everyone back into risk-on for another peak until the tapering crashes everything in 2022 to provide the political expediency for passing the $3.5 trillion boondoggle with all its destructive taxation and financial surveillance.
Normally January is altcoin season.
I don’t see how politically they can enact said boondoggle without first creating the pretext of a market crash and financial crisis. Of course we know McConnel is a demon and cooperates with Pelosi behind the curtain. But he still needs an excuse or scapegoat to save face with Republicans. So the best is if there is a serious market crash with the Fed being responsible by tapering (all things the Republicans want) and then a few lame-duck RINOs break ranks to be the scapegoats declaring that they could not standby whilst economy is crashing.
We know Y-o-Y CPI will decline in Jan/Feb 2022 even if price inflation remains steady, because there was a rise in price inflation in Jan/Feb 2021. Fed is cleverly going to use that to declare that their taper was useful, when in fact it is a political ploy to yoyo the markets.
Tax selling should be significant because it’s clear now the upcoming tax raises will not be retroactive to the 2021 tax year.
TechDev is applying years of gold in 1970s to months of BTC.
His Fibonacci analyses in 2017 volume was increasing and 1.272 low was before 1.618 peak, unlike 2013 & 2021 (note on BNC chart 2013 volume was decreasing), 2) 2013 correction 1.16 which would be ~26k, 3) in 2012 Fib 0.5 was backtested after backtesting 0.236, so backtest to 8k still technically possible, 4) in 2012–13 never dropped below Fib 0.5 but did in 2020, thus may drop below 1.16 in 2022.
The macro situation has changed. March 2020 is a repeating new normal, not an aberration.
There’s no RSI double-top for 2017 on biweekly chart. His 900% rise question should be a warning to him that his 220k top is missing something. I say “lower lows make higher highs”. Great Reset increasing volatility is both directions! The lower RSI low to 50 indicating (per his grey dashed trendline) a combo of earlier in bull cycle and start of crypto winter! (Great Reset + surreptitious donations fork underway)
Current cycle is nearly twice as slow as 2012 – 13 so far, thus expect next peak Mar – May, but possibly only $60 – 85k.
Also evidence of non-linear deceleration (e.g. elliptic curvature) due to “new normal” (Great Reset) attacks.
So peak in Mar – May 2022 will not be the top of the cycle per the insight of the Fibonacci ellipses analysis.
His projections to 370k should also be a warning to him that he’s missing something because 3357K is inconsistent with 220k.
We appear to be in a combo of bull and bear market. RSI to decline down to the lower green dashed line then the final rally back up to the upper green dashed line. The solid green trendline will only ever be reached again by legacy Bitcoin after the donations attack.
You’d think he’d realize after he wrote:
> “200–300K #Bitcoin looks almost too programmed,” TechDev added alongside a different chart showing Fibonacci levels.
If I am correct about this and Bitcoin crashes to $8 – 18k in summer 2022 after making only a moderately higher ATH or not even ATH on the spring bounce (ostensibly because of the QE taper, Tether failure due to China commerical paper defaults, and Biden attacking crypto), this coming late spring or summer may be a significant ramp up in the meatspace insanity.
Many people will ride crypto all the way down into the lows of 2022, yet they may have a huge tax bill to pay in April from 2021 profits. Or they capitulate at lows, but will have a huge tax to pay in 2023 due to surreptitious free airdrop (i.e. taxed as income!) of Core shitcoins in 2022 (? or 2021?) to be publicized perhaps 2023. IOW, maybe they surreptitiously fork at the highest price in 2021 or 2022 and all of that would be income evidenced on the blockchain when publicized.
The donations attack tax problem could apply to all SegWit shitcoins including Litecoin!
Note w.r.t. 1.236 grey Fib ellipse BTC in 2019 got ahead of itself, then crashed back down to align with 2015. Ditto 2.0 blue Fib oval, BTC got ahead of itself Dec 2020. Now must crash back down and stay below purple 3.618 until Aug 29, 2022 at 36k. Note a bounce to ~60k by Mar 2022 after this incoming decline. Low to be perhaps ~18k by June 2022.
I can’t rule out 9.5k in 2022 for the low.
The two patterns $200+k Q1 2023 and 1.1m Q3 2024 suggests that the donations attack will be the former and only legacy BTC heads to 1.1m. Makes sense they do it on BIden’s (soon to be Kamala’s) tenure.
Btw, if I reposition the Fib circles (as ChrisCa93099037 had them on his Fib circles chart), then it makes no sense as it indicates the top should have already been hit in terms of time but not target price. So that is one reason I ruled out this alternative interpretation and positioned the Fib circles the way I did.
Added those Fib ellipses to my former chart and everything I had on it matched up perfectly. You can see my Fib interpretation also matches up very well to 2011 – 2013 cycle as well.
Expect massive disillusionment if PlanB’s expectations are shattered.
There’s no volume below ~29k. A volume spike around $25 – 26k which may provide first bounce. Below that no volume until ~20k. Significant volume not until ~10k.
Together with the ellipses and my other T/A, it appears that Bitcoin has entered a phase since 2019 of making higher highs and higher lows? 😲
Bitcoin keeps trying to make that hyperinflation move too soon, but then gets dragged back down to a lower more egregious low, e.g. March 2020.
So it would fit for BTC to crash now to ~$25 – 26k, then bounce again to ~60k, then crash to $10 – 20k, then finally breakout to 200k, but then donations attack down to those volume spikes near $0.
The donations attack will permanently destroy ~½ of BTC token supply (some months after attack when FATF declares this “stolen” tokens verboten). Halving supply cause the price to skyrocket later thus sustaining the exponentiation trend whilst non-legacy succumbs to natural S-curve (aka logistic) and Tulip mania.
Remember Panic Cycles of Socrates’ Forecast Arrays can mean both a spike low or high and then a volatile reaction reversal. The Fed will announce a taper in November. The U.S. government is only funded through early December, with unemployment payments ending. Dip in October was risk-off due to potential government shutdown, with perhaps some tax selling. Why not a more severe dip in Nov/Dec given that Republicans have said the compromise in Oct to extend govt funding was the last one, coupled with taper announcement, coupled with more frantic tax selling? That mini-crash should be enough political cover for moderate Democrats and/or lame-duck RINOs to break ranks and kick the can again on government funding. So everyone back into risk-on for another peak until the tapering crashes everything in 2022 to provide the political expediency for passing the $3.5 trillion boondoggle with all its destructive taxation and financial surveillance.
Normally January is altcoin season.
I don’t see how politically they can enact said boondoggle without first creating the pretext of a market crash and financial crisis. Of course we know McConnel is a demon and cooperates with Pelosi behind the curtain. But he still needs an excuse or scapegoat to save face with Republicans. So the best is if there is a serious market crash with the Fed being responsible by tapering (all things the Republicans want) and then a few lame-duck RINOs break ranks to be the scapegoats declaring that they could not standby whilst economy is crashing.
We know Y-o-Y CPI will decline in Jan/Feb 2022 even if price inflation remains steady, because there was a rise in price inflation in Jan/Feb 2021. Fed is cleverly going to use that to declare that their taper was useful, when in fact it is a political ploy to yoyo the markets.
Tax selling should be significant because it’s clear now the upcoming tax raises will not be retroactive to the 2021 tax year.
TechDev is applying years of gold in 1970s to months of BTC.
His Fibonacci analyses in 2017 volume was increasing and 1.272 low was before 1.618 peak, unlike 2013 & 2021 (note on BNC chart 2013 volume was decreasing), 2) 2013 correction 1.16 which would be ~26k, 3) in 2012 Fib 0.5 was backtested after backtesting 0.236, so backtest to 8k still technically possible, 4) in 2012–13 never dropped below Fib 0.5 but did in 2020, thus may drop below 1.16 in 2022.
The macro situation has changed. March 2020 is a repeating new normal, not an aberration.
There’s no RSI double-top for 2017 on biweekly chart. His 900% rise question should be a warning to him that his 220k top is missing something. I say “lower lows make higher highs”. Great Reset increasing volatility is both directions! The lower RSI low to 50 indicating (per his grey dashed trendline) a combo of earlier in bull cycle and start of crypto winter! (Great Reset + surreptitious donations fork underway)
Current cycle is nearly twice as slow as 2012 – 13 so far, thus expect next peak Mar – May, but possibly only $60 – 85k.
Also evidence of non-linear deceleration (e.g. elliptic curvature) due to “new normal” (Great Reset) attacks.
So peak in Mar – May 2022 will not be the top of the cycle per the insight of the Fibonacci ellipses analysis.
His projections to 370k should also be a warning to him that he’s missing something because 3357K is inconsistent with 220k.
We appear to be in a combo of bull and bear market. RSI to decline down to the lower green dashed line then the final rally back up to the upper green dashed line. The solid green trendline will only ever be reached again by legacy Bitcoin after the donations attack.
You’d think he’d realize after he wrote:
> “200–300K #Bitcoin looks almost too programmed,” TechDev added alongside a different chart showing Fibonacci levels.
If I am correct about this and Bitcoin crashes to $8 – 18k in summer 2022 after making only a moderately higher ATH or not even ATH on the spring bounce (ostensibly because of the QE taper, Tether failure due to China commerical paper defaults, and Biden attacking crypto), this coming late spring or summer may be a significant ramp up in the meatspace insanity.
Many people will ride crypto all the way down into the lows of 2022, yet they may have a huge tax bill to pay in April from 2021 profits. Or they capitulate at lows, but will have a huge tax to pay in 2023 due to surreptitious free airdrop (i.e. taxed as income!) of Core shitcoins in 2022 (? or 2021?) to be publicized perhaps 2023. IOW, maybe they surreptitiously fork at the highest price in 2021 or 2022 and all of that would be income evidenced on the blockchain when publicized.
The donations attack tax problem could apply to all SegWit shitcoins including Litecoin!
Nota
If I am correct about this and Bitcoin crashes to $8 – 18k in summer 2022 after making only a moderately higher ATH or not even ATH on the spring bounce (ostensibly because of the QE taper, Tether failure due to China commercial paper defaults, and Biden attacking crypto), this coming late spring or summer may be a significant ramp up in the meatspace insanity.Many people will ride crypto all the way down into the lows of 2022, yet they may have a huge tax bill to pay in April from 2021 profits. Or they capitulate at lows, but will have a huge tax to pay in 2023 due to surreptitious free airdrop (i.e. taxed as income!) of Core shitcoins in 2022 (? or 2021?) to be publicized perhaps 2023. IOW, maybe they surreptitiously fork at the highest price in 2021 or 2022 and all of that would be income evidenced on the blockchain when publicized.
The donations attack tax problem could apply to all SegWit shitcoins including Litecoin!
Nota
I have put considerable effort into this analysis at this critical juncture.Just in case I am wrong, I am still hodling most of my BTC.
I think it is very, very likely that Tether fails in 2022 as China’s commercial paper is defaulting, Senators such as Lummis are calling for transparency and regulation for stable coins, and Biden contemplating a E.O. for a crypto tzar. The other stablecoins are well backed and are preparing to work with the banking sector for FDIC insurance which could send crypto to the moon after the posited Tether devastation.
Remember I could be wrong. So don’t bet the farm on any particular outcome.
A decline to 26k this Nov/Dec at that volume profile (VPVR) spike would not entirely invalidate TechDev’s thesis, so that would still have the FOMO fuel for another bull trap Spring bounce into $60 – 85k. Michael Saylor and Tesla probably wouldn’t capitulate at 26k and instead buy more.
The real fireworks would come with a Tether collapse in late Spring or summer 2022. Frankly 8k might be possible. We’d have whales capitulating (while not realizing they’ll soon have a huge income tax bill to pay for the free airdrop over 60k which they weren’t aware of). Arguing with a rogue, mafia that the IRS will become will not be fruitful. Even those who do sell that posited bull trap will probably hold proceeds in Tether and thus lose everything.
Jim Cramer will get his chance to purchase Bitcoin below 10k as he predicted.
The ride from 8k (or maybe only 18k) to $200+k will be ostensibly driven by FDIC insured stablecoins, elimination of USDT market manipulation, so that a spot price ETF can be approved in the U.S.. In other words, the masses and major institutions will finally onboard and then be fleeced of everything by the posited donations attack which obliterates the cryptocosm and prepares the plebs to be pushed on to 666 central bank digital coins (CBDCs) whilst legacy Bitcoin will march on to $1+ million but in a two-tiered monetary system on for central banks and billionaires to use. FATF will blacklist the donated BTC that was fleeced by the miners, but not until after the miners have cashed out their massive gains to finance the “attack” which is really just a restoration of the Nash equilibrium for Satoshi’s immutable protocol.
Nota
One of the factors that may contribute to a posited bull rally trap from posited decline to 26k, would be Tether trying to print their way out of a impending (regulatory driven?) default.Nota
Typo: higher lows should be lower lows.
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