BTC SHORT, BEAR'S LAST STAND

6 feb 2023

A lot of resistance at ~24.5k, coming from a long-term channel since the ATH, and the local high of ~25k in mid-Aug.

Shorting given a recent decline in volume and OI slightly declining at these prices. . However, upon doing so one must consider the bull/bear case that may play out.

BULL:
Nov. 15k was the bottom, and we may either be in a new bull market cycle or still within a bull market that started in 2018 on the way to 100k by EOY.

For this to be the case, we must hold ~18.5k-19k, with no daily closes below it, and allow a re-entry, followed by a smash over 25k. Once done, bears have a final stand of ~27k which currently follows the 12-month MA on the BTC spot index chart. If we close above the 52-week MA, the bear market is over.VWAP lines represent areas of resistance if the bull case plays out.

There is some evidence of a parabolic move possibly playing out thanks to TechDev_52's tweet of a correlation between BTC and Global Liquidity (CN10Y/DXY) where "Every ATH-setting move began after CN10Y/DXY closed above its 3W 20MA" with every "major impulse topped *at most* 12 months later".

So, at worst a parabolic run could come by to stop by Nov. 2023

Failure with that brings the bear case...

BEAR:
Bottom not in given macro conditions and projections on SP500, which could be correlated with BTC.
24k strong resistance, we correct past the CME gap at 20k, play around with 19k followed by a sudden close under it, which can bring us to 14k, maybe even 12.5k.

There is a minor "NEUTRAL" case where a double bottom could form ~14.5-15k, where we do get a bull re-entry as noted on the chart, break 25k, and then get slapped hard at 27k-34k, all the way back down to 24k followed by 14-16k, and then trigger another bull re-entry similar to how 2019-2020 played out or even back in 2015 that had a double bottom.

I was wrong on the last BTC trade as the trend changed on Jan. 12th following a possible short-term regime change around EOY 2022, be it market participants entering back in after selling off in Q4 for tax reasons, macro liquidity flows, etc.

Overall, I think we'll range for a while between 27k-14k, followed by another explosive move on the low end of that range toward 30k. I don't know how long, maybe months.

Trades:

Short
E: 23.1k
SL: 26k
TP:20k, 18k, 15k (likely close), 12.5k

Long
E:20k
SL:17.8k
TP:25k, 27k, 32k

SPY

SPY short has not changed. I could see SPY targeting ~420 and then starting a new downtrend, SL adjusted a bit higher to 427.
I will say at these prices, both BTC and SPY have growing voices of bears and bulls. A lot of long hedgers at SPY since the Oct. and late Dec. bottom, and on late Dec. for BTC. Break those levels and we're in for extreme fear. Q1 2023 volatility could still spike if geopolitics play out concerning control over oil in the middle east/eastern Europe if EV infrastructure is proven incapable of sustaining itself at scale by 2030.

15 feb 2023

Nota

Trend flipped with new support at 21.5K instead of 16k-17k lows. However, there is a risk of exhaustion around 26k-28k that could bring a greater drawdown than what we've seen since the recent drop to 21.5k.
But for now, looking for a hedged long re-entry ~23k with a tp toward ~27k.

Could see es_f go up as well to ~427s, so opening hedge long ~410s to 427s, and raising sl of the short higher to 435s.

15 feb 2023

Nota

Also, if we break 21k-22k, then i'd consider going short on btc again.

17 mar 2023

Nota

Increasing risk of a "breakout" to 28k-30k assuming diminishing returns, otherwise we could slowly rise to 50k for either the weekly close of the 52W ma.

A lot of $ was added back to the fed balance sheet, and Tech getting bailed out does make one think as to whether QE is starting back again. If it were to do so, it could maintain an advantage over the East/BRICS for as long as the US can afford its military. At the same time, there is speculation that the U.S. banking crisis was a ploy to push the adoption of (CBDCs), potentially limiting the growth of BTC and any nation-state thinking/acting on using it to bypass sanctions.

Overall, I suspect something's got to give if nations continue to act fragmented and in their own self-interests to gain any edge in implementing a 4IR. Note, sectors involving the 4IR alongside emerging markets might prove to have more upside overall vs. crypto/tradFi over the coming years/decade.