BTC Bearflag ABC correction
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Bitcoin fell out from the rising wedge and is now in a ABC bear flag correction phase targeting the 21 weekly Moving Average which also correlates with the 0.382 Fibonacci from the greater move Corona crash till ATH).
The B would also fill the CME gap and if you draw a Fibonacci extension from ATH to A the Golden pocket marks the CME gap perfectly.
all this signs tell me this is the most logical outcome. presuming we close todays daily candle above 50k.
further if you backcheck bullish corrections take about 2 weeks.
so far we have one 1 week behind us.
there is 1 more week till monthly close.
weekend starts today so i would not be surprise we move up this weekend liquidate the shorts up to the gap.
Monday CME opens we print the gap fill and come down for the C to the 0.382 Fib and close the month in RED there making everyone happy that we finally touched the 21 weekly MA again.
then start a fresh monthly green candle with probably oscillators reset nd bullish divergence targeting the range highs again.
when we get there i will update with a new chart to look at further targets.
The B would also fill the CME gap and if you draw a Fibonacci extension from ATH to A the Golden pocket marks the CME gap perfectly.
all this signs tell me this is the most logical outcome. presuming we close todays daily candle above 50k.
further if you backcheck bullish corrections take about 2 weeks.
so far we have one 1 week behind us.
there is 1 more week till monthly close.
weekend starts today so i would not be surprise we move up this weekend liquidate the shorts up to the gap.
Monday CME opens we print the gap fill and come down for the C to the 0.382 Fib and close the month in RED there making everyone happy that we finally touched the 21 weekly MA again.
then start a fresh monthly green candle with probably oscillators reset nd bullish divergence targeting the range highs again.
when we get there i will update with a new chart to look at further targets.
Nota
should have published the daily and posted the weekly picture here in updates i realised it a bit late sorry.. here the daily.
might keep posting the same chart on daily timeframe as we progress..
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4hr Nota
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so far we seem to be on track just perfectly.invalidation point to downside was respected (CME chart has not even made a lower low) and to the upside it would be a break of 60k. as long as we do not break 60k and close above at least some 4hr candle or higher 21 weekly is in play.
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bitcoin might not fill the gap right away. IMO its been grinding up a bit too fast.. and now is nearing a critical point at 56-57500 k where it could start dumping because of some hidden bearish divergence.. and dip down to 52-53k for a right shoulder of a Inverse Head n Shoulders pattern to break through the critical area at the next attempt to close the gap and possibly beyond.. if we close a daily above 60k we keep going. if we fail then we are on track for the 21 weekly moving average. which could be a great buying opportunity and maybe the last one before we head for the 100k price targetWe confirm a hidden bearish divergence when the price is showing lower tops, and the indicator gives higher tops.
you can clearly see that because went up too high the RSI is much higher then the price .. i marked the divergence with the 2 red lines
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one of my indicators is flashing a warning signal on the 4hr so i think we might dip from here to the 52k ish area..be cautios and have stop loss in case you playing with legverage. (which you should keep away from)Nota
so just like expected the bearish divergence is currently playing out and creating a right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders. i measured the target and it points to 66 k usd which would make a slightly higher All Time High.of course first we need to see a breakout above the neckline filling the CME gap up to 60k. i still give it a chance to fail after closing the gap and crash back down to the 21 weekly moving average and completing the bearflag pattern.
if however we close daily candle above the 60k (above the CME gap) i think that the IHS will play out and reach its 66k target
play safe! play spot!
manage your risk!
not financial advice.
Trade attivo
i think this is still in play the 21 weekly needs to be touched! here some more findings .. i might make video on Bitcoin soon
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so the IHS looks really nice now and we have our right shoulder.. now what we need to see is a break out from the neckline and a retest. then we should fill the gap and here it gets interesting.. will it go higher then the gap towards IHS target or will it fail after closing the gap to go back and touch the 21 weekly while completing the ABC bearflag correction.
we gonna watch closely and expect one of these 2 scenarios.
have stops in play if u care about risk management
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we have closed the monthly and we have a High Wave Spinning top candle confirmed for April. this could be a reversal candle. we have to watch closley now. it does not have to be but it can be a reversal.. however it can also be just a trick to shake more people out. the only monthly spinning top i can see was in 2017 and we had 3 green dildos after that
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it is a threat to the current trend.. however.. we are consolidating below the neckline of this IHS .. if the IHS plays out and reaches target we have made a higher high at 66k and we have nothing to worry about.. if we break down after filling the gap i think the ABC bearflag and 21 weekly in play and bounce there..
only if we break down here without even closing the gap.. i will get worried and exit all markets until i can make sense of it.
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interesting facts.. falling asleep lost the text.. see ya lter
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time for an update. we are getting close to the target of this idea and only 1k left to close the gap and reach the B target of the ABC correction. will we stop there and go to C?
We are aware as well of this IHS formation which has a target at 66k.
question is what will play out? i am watching if we get a clear rejection at 60k or rather a consolidation above or move far beyond.
decision point is close stay tuned.
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looking at Tom Demark's Sequential on the daily we see we are on a green TD 8 see what happens usually when we get to a 8 or 9? also the red signal from yesterday is a warning.. the 8 is also a warning that a short-term correction of 1-4 daily candles might be imminent.. so in my opinion the ABC has all the chances to be in play. i will set stop losses on all my assets today.. it could be today or after daily close tomorrow that we see some action.. i recommend to manage your risk and stay safe.
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CME chart here.. already looks like we not even gonna fill the gap. it came 700 dollars shy of reaching the that target. Not gonna short and i am not currently holding any bitcoin. Nota
obvious target is the 54-55k according to the VPVRTrade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
i am closing this trade... targets reached perfectly after 4 weeks.. please leave me a like and follow my newer ideas.
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