Bitcoin Alpha Report

Monday Alpha Report
2024 12 23

Bitcoin

Following a heart-gripping correction to ~$92,000 Bitcoin rallied slightly to re-test our ascending level of support, taking several forms from the diagonal trendline on the Daily Timeframe, to the 200 SMA on the 4H Timeframe.

Bitcoin now finds itself back at ~$93,000 after failing to sustain above $95,000 - a level I have continually highlighted as critical to maintaining this currently rally. The longer Bitcoin sustains underneath $95,000 - more downside risk emerges.

My current worst-case scenario is a retracement to $75,000 - $80,000. However, currently there are no fundamentals that fully support this. This worst-case target is based on the prevailing CME Futures Gap, the previous consolidation level sustained throughout the ‘Summer Doldrums’, and the projected vicinity of the Daily 200 SMA.

Keep in mind, that Bitcoin often performs very strongly into Christmas, so it is still possible we get our ‘Santa Rally’. If that occurs, the critical level to watch will be $100,000 - $104,000. That would be the projected ‘Lower High’ target if Bitcoin is to rally into the end of the year yet still maintain it’s trajectory for a longer-term correction.

I remain optimistic that we can still reach the price target of $120,000 by Trump’s inauguration - however there is a time to be bold and a time to prepare and manage downside risk - unfortunately this is the later.

In addition, Michael Saylor’s comments have failed to bring enthusiasm to the markets this morning. Recent reports suggest that MSTR plans to pause Bitcoin purchases in January due to a ‘self-imposed blackout period’. This pause is expected to last through January, resuming after the company’s earnings call in early February 2025.

Therefore, applying a timeline to our scenarios, if Bitcoin fails to rally into Trump’s inauguration, and we did indeed just experience a local top, I expect sluggish if not downward price action through the beginning of the year with the rally to resume in February-March. That will give time for two critical catalysts to occur: MSTR’s renewed buying, and a chance for the Fed to pivot to a more dovish tone and ramp up or provide more clarity on rate cuts - the catalyst which I believe is primarily responsible for Bitcoin’s current rally.

In summary, traders should be prepared to act tactically upon trading signals, with optimism, however be prepared for a several month slump. This last part should be viewed with great optimism however, because a correction now for several months almost guarantees a right-handed cycle that will extend deep into 2025 for cryptocurrency.

In short: we might be experiencing a local top, but we are most certainly not experiencing a cycle top.

Trends:
5M: Bearish
30M: Bearish
1H: Bearish
4H: Bearish

Key Levels:
Point of Control: $95,373
VWAP: $94,568
Value Area Low: $92,143 - $93,798
Value Area High: $95,804 - $96,991
Resistance: $99,500
Support: $86,900

Strategy:
Price is currently trading in the Value Area Low for the day, after experiencing a sell-off and a rejection from $94,000. Traders can position for a potential double-bottom, and target today’s Value Area High in the short-term and optimistically a Christmas rally into $100,000 - $104,000.
Focus on managing down-side risk however, as prices below $92,000 will likely trigger another wave of sell-offs as liquidations are forced and fear is in the air.