Be a contrarian: Long the channel dip

29 giu 2020

Price is 8.9k and a lot of people have made very bearish calls. Given the economic situation and bitcoin spx correlation, we can definately see that. That being said its important to remember last crash we spent nealy 2 months in denial of the covid situation. Even after it spread to italy and caused hundreds of deaths, market went up.. Even when a lockdown was announced there markets went up. Only till it spread to south korea did the markets start correcting rapidly. Total time from initial outbreak was roughly 2 months. It is possible for the market to be in denial for 1-2 months and a large move up can be seen. Since so many traders are calling for a crash, the markets being interesting as they are will likely not do it at that time.

29 giu 2020

Nota

Scenarios I am thinking

Scenario 1: Small pump to 9450-9550. Last pump before major move down. Likely we can see 30-40% drop

Scenario 2: Big pump to 10.9K followed by big dump

Scenario 3: Big pump to 11.7-12.1k followed by big dump

Scenario 4: No pump at all straight dump. Given recent momentum I think a move back up seems likely before further downside action

29 giu 2020

Nota

BTC looking bearish. Best to close longs. Retest of 8.8k or below highly likely. Multiple failed pumps at resistance. Retest of lows before potentially filling the gap. The gap theory however is only 80-85% accurate, so there could be a chance like march where this gap goes unfilled. We also had a unfilled gap in last summer june bull run of 2019

29 giu 2020

Nota

There was a decent green candle on the 15 min chart at the previous resistance. We also see a bearish divergence on the 4hr chart. Therefore I suggest to open a short position with a 50% hedge in the long position

29 giu 2020

Nota

Price is starting to pierce the resistance line, so we can reduce slightly the short exposure to match the long exposure to stay neutral.

30 giu 2020

Nota

Price failed to pump that much. Better to be more short exposure.