BTC mid term idea

24 feb 2018

Most probable scenario for btc. Fits alts projected levels vs USD too.
Drop (with rebounds) to 8250$ rebound, and then
either up to 11k, break up and 18k OR weak rebound, retest 10 000$, and can't go higher, then drops to 4400$ after a retest of the trendline around 8500$
I will update depending on the rebound
Reversal could stop at around 9000$ for a truncated correction, if buy pressure is big enough

Dump to 4400$ will mean a long period of stagnation at 4-9k levels. Pump to 18k will mean a period of stagnation around 13-15k after a short correction.

Final target at around 60-80k, somewhere in the distant future, still

25 feb 2018

Nota

Alternate count for mid term (very long term, still the same 60-80k targets)
Black is passed count
Red is bearish count
Green is bullish count

Yes, for us to go bullish, we need to go down some more.
12 000 is still the overall bullish confirmation we are going to 16k (18k if we followed green path)




Potential strategies : start buying on huge dips, the lower we go, the higher you buy. Sell in small portions as soon as we approach resistances to even-out the costs, gaining while still having good positions in case of a bull run, and low risk in case of bear run (then you can start hedging with shorts)

26 feb 2018

Nota

Very important moment.

You can sell some from the dip buying if you want to be safe

26 feb 2018

Nota

Update :


Thankfully, we got in through the bacldoor with BCH for a nice strictly equivalent trade

26 feb 2018

Nota

Still in trade with BCH after taking some profits at 10%, but moved the stop loss up, in case we are just experiencing a complex correction wave 2

For bullish momentum to continue, price must hold well

We also continue monitoring BCH/BTC to get the best of this bullish phase if it continues

27 feb 2018

Nota

Second profit taking at 10720$, of all the short term scalp/daytrade stack
Swing (medium term) stack still in, with stop loss at entry point

27 feb 2018

Nota

Expecting one final leg up before taking half swingstack profit, and moving stoploss further up to correction swing low (probably around 10200$)

28 feb 2018

Nota

Final leg up done just below the invalidation target, and touched exactly the projected target. Now expecting strong downmove. Will reconsider the plan with a strong pierce above 11200$, as shared on Telegram few days ago
Levels to watch for reversal : 10 000$, 8800$, 8150$

I expect 8800$ to be hit for now for the final C correction, finishing up the inverted H&S, and starting a spring uptrend to 16000-17000$, but the ideal target is 8150$
OR
hit 8200$, have a weak rebound, agonize for few days, and drop further to 4400$ for a 5th wave down. This scenario is unlikely, and would mark the truncation of the macro wave III, which means "no 80k bitcoin this semester, or before a while"

1 mar 2018

Nota

Alternate scenario (bearish red) still in play. Main scenario revisited to fit current situation (bullish green)

plan C (third plan) is a bullish pierce now

1 mar 2018

Nota

Moment of truth
Which plan will it be ? A, B or C ?
Sold at target, will buy back if we cross 11200 with a pierce, same as always

3 mar 2018

Nota

11 200$ pending buy triggered. Holding it for now, but moving the stop loss at entry point
We are still going higher and broke the higher inverted H&S resistance! In theory, that would mean we are heading to 16500 (mid term, with potential corrections inbetween), but the momentum is really weak and fakeout is still possible :
a rising wedge is in formation. We will either have a STRONG pierce upward of the pink resistance with good volume confirming the inverted H&S, or continue to lose momentum and go down completing the rising wedge. We will see which one will go first
A potential strategy for hedging is to be short with stop loss buyback above the pink resistance of the rising wedge, while still holding btc, with a stop loss below the pink support of the rising wedge/upwave, or wave clear confirmation for super-safe traders. I personally did the first, but this is not an investment or trading advice, only sharing my opinion and actions. If btc goes up, I lose change money and gain a lot, if btc goes down, I gain a lot. Win-win

Stay frosty

4 mar 2018

Nota

Bought back part, and made a "stop loss" entry to buy back in case the correction is over and we resume the bull run, or retest of resistance
Waiting for next movement, probably down a bit more.
Scalp-hedging btc while decision becomes final, bite by bite increasing our stacks

6 mar 2018

Nota

Covered part of my shorts and the btc I bought back march 4 at 11 060$ got stop loss triggered for some profit when we broke trendline

Still expecting more down. Plan A (complete the iH&S with a leg down to 8150$) is getting slightly less likely in favor of plan B (bearish to 4400$).
We are still above neckline of the iH&S, so bouncing now is very bullish, but for now seems even less likely (plan C)
Plan A and B still the most high probabily still, and my strategy did not change