Sept 3

4 set

Overview:
As we wrote on Sept 1st: "Tuesday brings a wave of bears." It's been a strong start to the week for bears. The SP500 is down 2.12%, pushing aside hopes for new all-time highs and forming a pattern resembling a double top. The riskier QQQ dropped even more, correcting 3.04%, further confirming bearish sentiment. Both of these corrections were preceded by their respective futures ( ES1! and NQ1!) crashing 5 hours before the market opened, wiping out Friday's gains. Immediately after the stock market fell, BTC followed. We are now below the critical 58.4k weekly level, which had been tested many times. BTC even touched and bounced perfectly from the next weekly level of 55.8k. The new trading range is 55.8k - 58.4k.

We conclude that this price action is likely due to insiders dumping assets or securing profits ahead of the Fed’s jobs report scheduled for Wednesday. One issue with the new 55.8k level is that it isn’t as strong as the previous level since it hasn't been tested as much. It's also away from the point of control (based on the volume profile) on all timeframes (1h, 4h, W), meaning it's not where the whales are trading. We likely won’t stay at this level for long.

Global liquidity has resumed its upward climb after an 8-day decline, which perfectly mirrored the last BTC bull trap (yellow line on our chart).

W: The week opened lower than the August 5th closing. Bearish.
D: Played out as expected, hitting the BB MA at 59.8k on Monday, then dropping to the lower band at 55.5k. After bouncing off the lower support band, the price should naturally return to 58.4k to establish it as resistance before continuing the downtrend.
4h: At the lower band. RSI is close to 20 and hasn't crossed the 50 mark in the last 7 days. Bullish, unless Wednesday's Fed report knocks out the markets completely.
1h: What is less visible on the 4h chart is clearer on the 1h chart. A bullish MACD divergence is forming, and RSI is below 80. Target: 58.4k.
Alts relative to BTC: ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and TONUSDT have declined lower than the August 4th closing. NEARUSD and ARUSDT haven’t yet, but they’re not far off. Bullish whales are keeping SUIUSD afloat despite strong headwinds.

Bull case: All macroeconomic data has already been priced in, and we are at the bottom of the market. Whales have likely finished taking profits and will stop selling to retail traders, easing selling pressure. When the market looks this bearish, that's often when it pulls an "UNO Reverse" and starts pumping to new highs. We need to see full capitulation, like on August 5th, to target at least a short-term rebound.
Bear case: Continuous confirmation of bearish sentiment: lower lows, lower highs.
Fear and Greed Index: 34. Congratulations! We are officially in the fear zone. Historically, buying at this level tends to be profitable. If you start diligently DCAing while in Fear territory, you won't go broke.

Prediction: BTC will likely spike up short-term to either the BB MA or the upper band, followed by a continuation of the downtrend.
Opportunities: Weekly and 4h divergences in major altcoins: SUIUSD couldn’t hold its weekly level, which has now become resistance. TONUSDT next target is $2.48 (-46.5%). ARUSDT next target is $10.8 (-50%). SOLUSD and NEARUSDT both show 4h MACD divergence and are both at weekly levels. If BTC can trade sideways for 5-7 days, there are bullish opportunities in these two coins.