What a chaotic few weeks! Let's dive into some fractals, TA, and short term expectations and probabilities!
From recent movement many began assuming that bull market has resumed however resent 'correction' proved those wrong.
What would be a resistance that we would need to break to resume this 'bull - run' ?
$5,400 - Is the resistance to break short term in order for this 'bull - run' to resume. Short term in current scenario means weeks and we would be looking at potential breakout above $6,000 later this month if that was to happen.
In a scenario where we don't break the resistance, a great place to look at would be fractals which would indicate first drop towards $4,000 - $4,200 trend line which is acting as strong support at this time. In an event we should fail to hold those levels, liquidity grab zone would be located below $2,000 region. Now that does necessarily means that we would drop down to those levels for accumulation, but we may see a daily or weekly candle getting close to that area before bouncing right back up. Of course in that scenario the bull cycle will also be delayed until late Q4 to early Q1 2020.
Before everyone gets emotional, I would like to point out that fractals don't always work in crypto and if we look at a resistance trend line , you will notice that we have broken it with ease which is a bullish sign overall, however in order manage risk, we must be prepared for either outcomes equally and minimize our exposure in an event we see sudden flash dump.
There is a good chance that our December low will hold, which would mean that bottom was found however again, we would need to see a strong push up in coming weeks in order to avoid negative outcome.
If we manage to break through resistance, overall pattern does put us at $7,500 - $8,500 / BTC later this month to early / mid May.
This is not financial advice, but merely just a person point of view on current crypto market.
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