czarly

Divergences lead the drop

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The momentum divergences and the declining volume in BTC let me search for support levels and the most likely support to hold for a bit is 6800, because on the 4h chart it is the lower Bollinger Band and the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud and in reach of the lagging average. Additionally it would align with the minimum retracement target of 38% for the current upswing that I assume topped out yesterday. Also a little spike in the volume profile gives hope for resting orders in that region.

BUT ultimately i assume the final V-shape drop.

By reaching the 7400 yesterday on Bitfinex, BTC collected the usual 61.8% retracement of the last downswing which was the likely target. When the BTC price approaches the 6k again, I assume that support will break as people are getting tired of eating hopium.

So far every major bear market in BTC ended with a V-shape low and a according volume spike. And volume is evidently lacking from these markets so this event seems to be needed to reset the hope for the bulls.

Happy shorting!

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