The bull run has been ongoing since October 2023, and we are beginning to reach the final stages. This is the final push, likely a significant one, but there is strong long-term resistance and trends around the $115,000 mark. Altcoins are starting to gain momentum, but institutions are accumulating and absorbing new supplies, putting upward pressure on Bt prices. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is weak, making Bitcoin appear artificially high compared to alternative currencies, such as the Sterling and Euro, with a new all-time high roughly 15% away for GBP and only 2% for dollar.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently high, indicating that a significant proportion of holders are in profit, which places us in a state of greed. Short-term holders are selling their positions, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. However, this trend is likely to lose momentum in the next price increase, as long-term holders may sell to free up capital for a potential bear market.
Furthermore, inflation remains high, and retail investors are finding it challenging to invest, which makes it less likely that they will engage with Bitcoin at its current levels. This indicates that a period of enthusiasm among retail investors is less probable. Additionally, outflows from ETFs have been shown to quickly impact prices negatively.
Bitcoin is projected to continue its price discovery upwards, potentially reaching $112,000 and possibly even higher before fear sets in, leading to profit-taking, which could significantly affect the price. Many investors may perceive this as a peak and anticipate a subsequent bear market.
While this cycle could be different, I remain skeptical. I believe that what I term GOB (Greed, Overconfidence, and Belief), which is the opposite of FOMO, will come into play and lead to a market crash.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently high, indicating that a significant proportion of holders are in profit, which places us in a state of greed. Short-term holders are selling their positions, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. However, this trend is likely to lose momentum in the next price increase, as long-term holders may sell to free up capital for a potential bear market.
Furthermore, inflation remains high, and retail investors are finding it challenging to invest, which makes it less likely that they will engage with Bitcoin at its current levels. This indicates that a period of enthusiasm among retail investors is less probable. Additionally, outflows from ETFs have been shown to quickly impact prices negatively.
Bitcoin is projected to continue its price discovery upwards, potentially reaching $112,000 and possibly even higher before fear sets in, leading to profit-taking, which could significantly affect the price. Many investors may perceive this as a peak and anticipate a subsequent bear market.
While this cycle could be different, I remain skeptical. I believe that what I term GOB (Greed, Overconfidence, and Belief), which is the opposite of FOMO, will come into play and lead to a market crash.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
There is strong resistance at this level, with a long-term trend in this region dating back to the peak in 2017. The recent halving seems to be priced in, and we have a bottom trend line at 45k. Remember the Wall Street phrase: "up like a staircase, down like an elevator." There is a lot of greed in the market, and valuations are increasing daily over the next six months. This is my long-term exit point until the next bear market presents a buying opportunity. I plan to buy and sell when prices reach the identified yellow lines.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.