BTC: Parabolic move incoming, or reversal?
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1) BTC encountered resistance at the 60-62k level for a whole month. While it has thrown many mixed signals across its major moves, the push up 13 April — compounding the push 10 April — was strong.
2) Neglecting to backtest the trend line it broke 10 April, today we have seen a backtest of the trend line it broke 13 April, and it seems we may see a strong push now to 71.3k and perhaps beyond.
3) There is arguable evidence of an explosive move up from now. Using the Fibonacci fans tool, we can see that the angle of the macro ascents is increasing, moving from 56 degrees to 57 degrees, to possibly 58 degrees now. This latter is a projection, but it's consistent with what we're seeing, if the trend continues.
4) The wave is pushing further up with each extension. If the trend continues, we may see a new parabolic impulse within the larger parabolic bull run. Are we heading into the last push in a one-peak cycle?
5) The threat remains of a reversal. As strong as the 13 February upside impulse was, its correction was also strong, and fast. If BTC is able to clear and hold 63.8, the uptrend may be assumed confirmed. But until that level is cleared, the possibility remains that this 13 April push could be the last flourish before BTC steps down many levels, in what then might be seen as a two-peak cycle. The 0.5 Fibonacci level held and gave strong rejection as support. But we might also be seeing a massive head and shoulders pattern forming, which would be a reversal signal, and could lead BTC back down through 58 to 55.5 to possibly as low as 51.
What do you think will happen? Feel free to comment.
2) Neglecting to backtest the trend line it broke 10 April, today we have seen a backtest of the trend line it broke 13 April, and it seems we may see a strong push now to 71.3k and perhaps beyond.
3) There is arguable evidence of an explosive move up from now. Using the Fibonacci fans tool, we can see that the angle of the macro ascents is increasing, moving from 56 degrees to 57 degrees, to possibly 58 degrees now. This latter is a projection, but it's consistent with what we're seeing, if the trend continues.
4) The wave is pushing further up with each extension. If the trend continues, we may see a new parabolic impulse within the larger parabolic bull run. Are we heading into the last push in a one-peak cycle?
5) The threat remains of a reversal. As strong as the 13 February upside impulse was, its correction was also strong, and fast. If BTC is able to clear and hold 63.8, the uptrend may be assumed confirmed. But until that level is cleared, the possibility remains that this 13 April push could be the last flourish before BTC steps down many levels, in what then might be seen as a two-peak cycle. The 0.5 Fibonacci level held and gave strong rejection as support. But we might also be seeing a massive head and shoulders pattern forming, which would be a reversal signal, and could lead BTC back down through 58 to 55.5 to possibly as low as 51.
What do you think will happen? Feel free to comment.
Nota
17 Apr 2021 17:57:35: 1) BTC broke the ascending trendline of this last wave, so I expect a deeper correction now. 2) I don't think this is only a retest of 60k. 3) Possible bounce at 59k, but this may be temporary, and this next week I expect 56k to be revisited, and for it to be the base for now, tapping the 300 EMA on the 4hr chart.Nota
17 Apr 2021 23:18:50: The only reason I follow the BTC chart closely is because it dictates everything in the whole cryptospace. You cannot open a trade on anything without knowing what BTC is doing, and having some level of certainty as to its direction, up or down, and major possible moves ahead. Very few alt coins are not strongly correlated. Some have moments of breaking free, but we've not seen that yet across the board, even though BTC dominance is at 52.6%. Why has 60k been such a barrier? Since the ATH of 13 March, it has been revisited at least a dozen times. And twice again now. Is that it? Are we done yet? Can we put it behind us? Was this just a double tap on a key psychological level, or is this some kind of more permanent supply zone that won't easily be exhausted? What explains this?Nota
18 Apr 2021 03:42:57: It's not 60k as a psychological level. It's the 0.702 Fibonacci level, which is a zone of strong resistance.
Nota
18 Apr 2021 16:38:41: A full correction is not confirmed, but is hard to rule out at this point. Comparison of 21 February and today:
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
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