Why I think the BTC bottom might be in
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Hi there guys!
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE*
This is my first technical analysis on TV, so please bear with me as I will demonstrate on why I think the BTC bottom might be in. So today I spent some time on Telegram and discussed with a friend about long-term opportunities on the crypto market, and he sent me an article which states that the year 2022 has been the worst year for stocks and bonds since 1871/1932 (1). Not only that, but the CNBC reported back in September 2022 that a whooping 9 Trillion
USD could be wiped out from Americans Wealth (2).
The global economy still has to deal with inflation, and we might see some relief this year once the rate hikes ease. With China's reopening after the zero-covid measurements, it might add some fuel to the fire. I do believe that a pump or a bounce here could potentially lead to some recovery, however the battle against the inflation is far from over. A possibility is that we might as well see a negative CPI report this year (3). In my eyes it will only lead to more instability and more volatility on the markets.
But back to BTC. Why would BTC bounce here? This is a great question, however I believe that I might have the answer for that here. If you take a look at the left chart (BTCUSD:BITSTAMP) you can see that we've broken the previous ATH levels and are currently hovering above 16,000. Many of us are currently expecting more pain and are targeting 13k, 11k and some even think 8k is possible. Yes! I do agree, but there is hope in my eyes. 2022 has already been brutal, but what exactly can we expect from 2023? If you check the right chart (
TOTAL) you can see that the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is right on point. Meaning that we've tested the previous ATH for TOTAL twice(!). It just made me think, since literally "everyone" and even a lot of people I follow on Twitter are currently aggressively shorting Altcoins, what would happen if all the money from altcoins would flow back into BTC? I see a huge potential that we might see a bounce here since the support has been holding on for a while now. I will change my long-term forecast once this important support line has been broken to the downside. But as of right now, I tend to believe that a rotation from Altcoins (and many of them are just utter trash) will flow back into BTC and enable a little relief bounce. One of my favorite Twitter accounts also stated this (4) and I do believe that many investors do not feel safe with holding altcoins right now. Especially after the FTX meltdown.
I hope you enjoyed reading this little analysis. I hope to contribute to this awesome community very soon!
Cheers.
Sources:
(1) ft.com/content/c93f3660-821f-458b-ae0f-23ac05b8f03f
(2) cnbc.com/2022/09/27/stock-market-losses-wipe-out-9-trillion-from-americans-wealth-.html
(3) forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2022/12/30/forecasting-2023s-inflation-rate/?sh=7d2b91643d03
(4) twitter.com/GCRClassic/status/1608186024315723778?s=20&t=8n9Jjc7jr4WXLjdYkw6KaQ
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE*
This is my first technical analysis on TV, so please bear with me as I will demonstrate on why I think the BTC bottom might be in. So today I spent some time on Telegram and discussed with a friend about long-term opportunities on the crypto market, and he sent me an article which states that the year 2022 has been the worst year for stocks and bonds since 1871/1932 (1). Not only that, but the CNBC reported back in September 2022 that a whooping 9 Trillion
USD could be wiped out from Americans Wealth (2). The global economy still has to deal with inflation, and we might see some relief this year once the rate hikes ease. With China's reopening after the zero-covid measurements, it might add some fuel to the fire. I do believe that a pump or a bounce here could potentially lead to some recovery, however the battle against the inflation is far from over. A possibility is that we might as well see a negative CPI report this year (3). In my eyes it will only lead to more instability and more volatility on the markets.
But back to BTC. Why would BTC bounce here? This is a great question, however I believe that I might have the answer for that here. If you take a look at the left chart (BTCUSD:BITSTAMP) you can see that we've broken the previous ATH levels and are currently hovering above 16,000. Many of us are currently expecting more pain and are targeting 13k, 11k and some even think 8k is possible. Yes! I do agree, but there is hope in my eyes. 2022 has already been brutal, but what exactly can we expect from 2023? If you check the right chart (
TOTAL) you can see that the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is right on point. Meaning that we've tested the previous ATH for TOTAL twice(!). It just made me think, since literally "everyone" and even a lot of people I follow on Twitter are currently aggressively shorting Altcoins, what would happen if all the money from altcoins would flow back into BTC? I see a huge potential that we might see a bounce here since the support has been holding on for a while now. I will change my long-term forecast once this important support line has been broken to the downside. But as of right now, I tend to believe that a rotation from Altcoins (and many of them are just utter trash) will flow back into BTC and enable a little relief bounce. One of my favorite Twitter accounts also stated this (4) and I do believe that many investors do not feel safe with holding altcoins right now. Especially after the FTX meltdown. I hope you enjoyed reading this little analysis. I hope to contribute to this awesome community very soon!
Cheers.
Sources:
(1) ft.com/content/c93f3660-821f-458b-ae0f-23ac05b8f03f
(2) cnbc.com/2022/09/27/stock-market-losses-wipe-out-9-trillion-from-americans-wealth-.html
(3) forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2022/12/30/forecasting-2023s-inflation-rate/?sh=7d2b91643d03
(4) twitter.com/GCRClassic/status/1608186024315723778?s=20&t=8n9Jjc7jr4WXLjdYkw6KaQ
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
Thanks for playing
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