BTC May 2025 Bullish macro view

BTC has hit the recent target area and made a higher high confirming the bullish trend.
Price is currently retracing slightly.

RSI peaked at 77 so not as high as last years high in March. This could still mark a local high as we've seen such a heated pump from btc, so pattern wise wouldn't surprise if BTC does a bit of consolidation downwards gathering steam for the next leg up.

A few scenarios present themselves in my eyes here:

1. Green path has price retracing to test the POC at approx. 103k after which price continues on to the upside where we wait for RSI to reach a similar peak to March last year. Projection here is around 133k.

2. Yellow path which sees price do a 50% retrace quite quickly with the first target being liquidity around the 100k level and ultimately 93k. Projection after this retrace is around 133k.

3. Red path which has a protracted retrace lasting 2 months ending approx. end of July. Target here would be a 50% retrace level around 92-93k which also has confluence with the major ascending channel that btc has been following. Projection after this retrace would then be approx. 140k area.

#3 could see a possible "alt season" provided BTC price does not retrace too much in a single drop, but does so with decent recoveries allowing alts to climb... i.e. profit taking in btc is then transferred to buy into alts.


A drop below the 50% fib level at 93k would indicate weakness, and I would look to preserve capital is this plays out. Should this play out, I would plan for a revisit to the 73k area.