XBTFX

Bitcoin: pending downside

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
News related to the potential default of the First Republic Bank strongly supported the price of BTC during the previous week. Similar situation already occurred earlier this year, when SVB and Signature bank collapsed, leaving a large number of bank depositors without their funds and savings. These events triggered fears among the population, where many people were taking out funds kept in banks, trying to put them into safer places, like Treasury bonds, Bitcoin and few other major coins on the market. During this period of time the price of BTC was pushed to the level of $30K, same as we have seen during the previous week. Although the price of BTC was previously traded at 27K , after the news about First Republic Bank, the price swiftly jumped to the highest weekly level of $30K. Although this was sort of a “panic” move to the upside, still, when the situation calms down, the price will inevitably pass through correction to the downside, from current levels.

Regardless of the strong move in the price during the week, RSI did move above line of 50, however, at this time, the indicator is not suggesting that the market is heading toward the overbought side. Quite opposite, the indicator is still more oriented toward the downside, indicating a potential short term market reversal from current levels and potential to head toward the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from MA200 counterpart, still supporting the Golden cross, which is a positive prospectus for BTC.

Developments from the previous week were sort of short term interruption of the BTC moves pointed by the charts. Trading volumes were much lower during the previous week, than it was during the first wave of banking troubles with SVB and Signature bank. This indicates that the market exhausted the potential for further move of funds from banks to other markets. In this sense, it could be expected that BTC will quite soon revert to “old” road. For some time in the past, charts are pointing toward 25K , but within a larger time frame from one week. For the week ahead, it could be expected that price of BTC will move back toward the $28K, as a short term stop on the road to $25K. On the opposite side, there is some probability for $30K to be tested at the beginning of the week, but it should not be expected that this level would be breached to the upside.

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