BTCUSD positions for risk takers - very short term

12 ott 2019

Hi.
First wanna note that I prefer dynamic analysis and updating projections rather than positions suggestions. As Bertrand Russell (British philosopher) says, nothing is more important than "facts" and in reality facts are evolving. One day you see the trade war is intensifying and the other day they say nice things and some cease fire. Seems positive sentiments are dominant this week.
So here I wanna show you two of my medium (inner) to high (outer) risk positions. The green projection is the result of a method I'm testing and it has passed back-test and benchmark periods (vertical lines).
Also there's an alternative negative projection that wasn't relevant so far but below red zone it may work (based on fundamentals). more detail about back-test (before vertical red line) and benchmark (red to green) here:


Usually I update my ideas more on this two medium/long term charts that both are on target zones:

Feel free to share your ideas.
Wish you best trades.

13 ott 2019

Nota

+106$

14 ott 2019

Nota

Well, it got interesting. Here we face a very tricky challenge of order risk control to ensure maximum profit possible. High volatility bars (HVB), I name it. Let's see where we are in these two positions. This is the narrower one :

As you can see in the blue zone it broke SL with a HVB in its wing! Seems a bad luck if don't adjust our position, right? what we could do? many things. Here we see the value of using channels indicators like Donchain or Bollingers. Simplest thing to do is to set SL as these channels' low. If I did, got +60$ and then if the analysis is still relevant will seek another entry. Reentering is very trickier than setting dynamic SL and I will explain my method on that in the next comment. before that let's take a look at the wider position:

I faced a lot of diverging from my projected trends like this, many times followed by a converging. So the market may face some volatility based on new information, albeit the trend is unchanged. But we should set our self-centered manner aside and completely rely on facts. Many times HVBs are related to a trend change not trend switch. Even relative characteristics of one HVB to the ones before it, is important in interpreting them. If we want to mainly rely on TA, then the position adjust method that I use is somehow combined with setting SL method that I described above in brief.

14 ott 2019

Nota

So as it's obvious, I'm a fan of Fans :D
Gann, fibo, ... They work if used properly.
Here is a setup for adjusting this position:

What we see is when price touches fans, enters a A/D phase and then market show it's direction. There we should watch volume carefully. In first yellow zone market experienced an abrupt decline in volume. in the second yellow zone, that price is in it now, it's repeating but you should watch all the way of A/D phase to predict the market's next direction.
Another important point is the Fans cross points. The HVB that happened in the blue zone was exactly on a cross of two fans. now price is going toward another one.
So, Love risks but don't marry them :))
See you soon...

14 ott 2019

Nota

Well, by soon I meant very soon :D We are talking about very short-term...
See two white zone and the forces around fan lines?

Still needs more demand. Downward fans are more powerful.
See you soon ;)

26 ott 2019

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Now, two weeks passed. As I mentioned in the title, it was for very short-term. After two weeks price is on target. But before that it reached suggested SL :lol: after that I described my method of adjusting position and now here is the magic of it:

In this close-up you can see Fans with different colors. The green is for short-term bear, the blue for medium-term bull, the brighter purple for long-term bear (a correction in major bull trend that price is still in it) and the darker purple for major very long-term bull.
Here the green and blue one worked perfectly. In brief, price is change direction between short-term bear and medium-term bull S/R levels.
Here's bigger picture:

Now what do you think? were it wanna go from here? :->