BTC THOUGHTS - ARE WE IN THE AUTO-CONFIRMATION BIAS MODE?
Hello, a friend made me realize that it's been a long time I post short ideas on BTC and that the overall market seems to be positioned short. When we repeat to ourself things over and over, they seem to be more and more realistic until we consider theam as the only possible scenario. We tend to overlook everything else that is against our view in a process that is known in behavioural finance as Autoconfirmation. I heard many people completely in USDT who sold all their BTC, others opening x25 leveraged short.....
Stated that the SHORT scenario is the most likely one (see the related idea linked below), let's try to find positive indications that the price could go up instead (isn't the BTC market very famous for making unexpected moves?) for not being caught unprepared in that case.
POTENTIALLY BULLISH SIGNALS (BOTH TA AND FA)
1 - symmetric triangle: as of now, despite the bearish pressure, we are still inside.
2 - hidden bullish divergence on the daily RSI: Higher low in price but lower low in the RSI.
3 - Golden cross occurred on daily. It is worth mentioning that, despite what you read on other sources, this is the first GC happening in a long time: indeed a true golden cross occurs when the 50MA crossing the POSITIVELY SLOPED 200MA. The GC we had in February was "fake"
4 - mining cost: as briefly stated in the last article, mining cost is roughly between 7.7k and 7.4k (let's say 7.5k). Difficulty did not decrease enough, so many were forced to stop the operations. Those remaining are still at the floating level because of abnormal fees paid these days (already decreasing a lot though). So they have only two chances: shut down operations too or see BTC price level go higher above 10k again.
5 - It has been a couple of weeks now that I constanty see huge amounts of BTC transferred from wallet exchanges to other unknown wallets. It is really weird because in a pre-dump moment I would expect the opposite movement: whales transferring their BTC to exchanges to be ready to unload their bags.
6- selling volumes not that big and decreasing as of now.
To be honest, among these 6 signals, only the bullish divergence and the number 5 (BTC going out of the exchanges) seem to be STRONG indicators.
What are targets in case short positions will be margin called? Saying that probably just a 3-4% move up now would result in huge liquidations, we will need to go above 9300 at least before talking about upside targets.
For the moment let's try to be safe and not go in risk-on mode betting too much on the short.
What you guys think? Are we too much biased towards shorting BTC?
Let me know, ciao
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I do not ask you to subscribe any “VIP” or “premium” channel. I share every single idea I have and 100% of what you read is 100% what I trade in the first place.
The only thing I ask, in case you were looking for different exchanges or platforms with different products, is to register to them through my referral links. Exchanges I personally use on a daily basis. If you already registered, great, meet you there!
You will earn a discount on fees (and so will I). Once registered you can refer other people as I am doing to earn further discounts and cashback.
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FTX – 5% lifetime commissions discount
Go to the following link:
ftx.com/
then digit the referral code:
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DERIBIT – 10% commissions discount for 6 months
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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stated that the SHORT scenario is the most likely one (see the related idea linked below), let's try to find positive indications that the price could go up instead (isn't the BTC market very famous for making unexpected moves?) for not being caught unprepared in that case.
POTENTIALLY BULLISH SIGNALS (BOTH TA AND FA)
1 - symmetric triangle: as of now, despite the bearish pressure, we are still inside.
2 - hidden bullish divergence on the daily RSI: Higher low in price but lower low in the RSI.
3 - Golden cross occurred on daily. It is worth mentioning that, despite what you read on other sources, this is the first GC happening in a long time: indeed a true golden cross occurs when the 50MA crossing the POSITIVELY SLOPED 200MA. The GC we had in February was "fake"
4 - mining cost: as briefly stated in the last article, mining cost is roughly between 7.7k and 7.4k (let's say 7.5k). Difficulty did not decrease enough, so many were forced to stop the operations. Those remaining are still at the floating level because of abnormal fees paid these days (already decreasing a lot though). So they have only two chances: shut down operations too or see BTC price level go higher above 10k again.
5 - It has been a couple of weeks now that I constanty see huge amounts of BTC transferred from wallet exchanges to other unknown wallets. It is really weird because in a pre-dump moment I would expect the opposite movement: whales transferring their BTC to exchanges to be ready to unload their bags.
6- selling volumes not that big and decreasing as of now.
To be honest, among these 6 signals, only the bullish divergence and the number 5 (BTC going out of the exchanges) seem to be STRONG indicators.
What are targets in case short positions will be margin called? Saying that probably just a 3-4% move up now would result in huge liquidations, we will need to go above 9300 at least before talking about upside targets.
For the moment let's try to be safe and not go in risk-on mode betting too much on the short.
What you guys think? Are we too much biased towards shorting BTC?
Let me know, ciao
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not ask you to subscribe any “VIP” or “premium” channel. I share every single idea I have and 100% of what you read is 100% what I trade in the first place.
The only thing I ask, in case you were looking for different exchanges or platforms with different products, is to register to them through my referral links. Exchanges I personally use on a daily basis. If you already registered, great, meet you there!
You will earn a discount on fees (and so will I). Once registered you can refer other people as I am doing to earn further discounts and cashback.
No one spends money, everybody gains!
FTX – 5% lifetime commissions discount
Go to the following link:
ftx.com/
then digit the referral code:
2887931
DERIBIT – 10% commissions discount for 6 months
Go to the following link:
deribit.com/reg-10610.3307
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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